60 FV Prospects

Several freak injuries upended Senzel’s 2018. He missed most of May battling vertigo symptoms for the second time in nine months (they first started in late August ’17), then fractured a finger in late-June and missed the rest of the season. He was supposed to play in the Fall League, but a return of the left elbow pain he had played through during the year became severe enough that he needed an MRI, which revealed bone spurs. He had surgery and was shut down for the year. When Senzel did play, he was very good and slashed .310/.378/.509 in 44 games at Triple-A while playing second base for the first time in affiliated ball.

Senzel’s likely future defensive home is still to be determined. He wasn’t a very good defensive third baseman early in college but became one as a junior. The presence of Eugenio Suarez led to reps at second base, and Scooter Gennett’s emergence led to what was supposed to be reps in left and center field this fall before Senzel needed surgery. The departure of Billy Hamilton leaves an obvious hole that he could potentially fill, but he hasn’t been seen playing center enough to know for sure. At the very least, he has stumbled into defensive versatility.

Mostly though, Senzel hits. He doesn’t have monster raw power, nor does he seek to take max-effort swings by utilizing a big stride or leg kick. Instead, his power comes from precise, high-quality contact. He’s going to be a doubles machine with home runs coming opportunistically rather than playing core aspect of his approach, but he’ll still hit for power. He has the skills and polish of a near-ready star, and the injuries don’t seem like they’re going to be a chronic thing.

Trammell has uncommon on-field self-awareness for a two-sport high school athlete who was only 20 last year. He has excellent plate discipline and an all-fields, gap-to-gap approach that suits his plus-plus speed; everything he slices down the line or sprays into the gap goes for extra-bases.

Trammell also put on a shocking display of power during BP at the Futures Game and hit two absolute seeds during the game. He never did anything remotely like that in the Fall League (nor, frankly, did any of the other prospects who played in D.C. and then later in Arizona) and actually struggled to turn on balls there, but there’s a chance of huge, if dormant, in-game power here, too.

Though Trammell runs well enough to play center field (by a lot), his arm strength still might limit him to left field. That’s where we have him projected, where we think he’ll be a Carl Crawford or Brett Gardner type of defender. He projects as an excellent leadoff hitter with some pop, but there’s a chance he ends up hitting for more power at some point.

50 FV Prospects

Greene is a generational on-mound athlete whose 2018 season ended with an elbow sprain. A strong two month run of starts in the early summer culminated in a 7-inning shutout start (2 H, 0 BB, 10 K, it took 69 pitches) on July 2 at Lake County followed by his feat of strength at the Futures Game. Eleven days later, Greene’s season was over. He had a PRP injection and rehabbed the sprained UCL in Arizona with broad plans to start throwing during the winter and so far, he seems on track for spring training.

Greene’s development was already pretty likely to be slow. He was able to throw strikes with that upper-90s fastball in high school, but his breaking ball was just okay, and he had no use for a changeup, so both of his secondary pitches were behind other pitchers in the class. Teams needed to project heavily on Greene’s stuff to buy him as a top five pick, but he’s such an exceptional athlete and success-oriented person that many of them did. Focusing solely on pitching for the first time, Greene’s slider improved in 2018. His ceiling will be dictated by the continued development of his secondary stuff.

India was a well-known prep prospect in South Florida, but the combination of a solid, but not spectacular, tool set and seven-figure asking price sent him to Florida. His first two years were about as expected; India got regular ABs but didn’t have any performative breakthroughs. In his draft year, India lost bad weight and added some strength, made some offensive adjustments, and exploded, torching the best conference in the country to the tune of a 1.21 OPS and 21 homers in 68 games. Scouts saw early in the spring that his tools had improved and the performance along with them, but it wasn’t until mid-way through the season that he seemed like a sure first round pick. He eventually looked like a consensus top 10 pick in the weeks leading up to the draft.

India has 55 raw power (60 for some scouts) and is a 55 defender with a 55 arm at third base. He played some shortstop at Florida and could be a limited-range fill-in there, with a chance to fit at second base if needed for longer stretches. We see India continuing to tap into his power, with something like a 50 hit tool and 55 power, with slightly more strikeouts than league average, but has the ability to be a hit-over-power type of player if he and the Reds choose that kind of approach.

Stephenson flew under the national radar during summer showcase season as a prep prospect because he didn’t go to all the big events, but Georgia area scouts knew to keep close tabs on him. He broke out in the spring, going from a top five round follow to the 11th overall pick. Multiple GMs showed up to many of his late playoff games since they didn’t have the same extensive history with him that they did with other top picks. Stephenson has a rare toolbox for a catcher, with a 70-grade arm and surprisingly advanced defensive skills for a 6-foot-4 backstop, along with plus raw power.

Stephenson isn’t a runner and his hit tool has been a little inconsistent, due to both his power-focused offensive approach and multiple injuries in pro ball (broken wrist, concussion). He performed well in the pitcher-friendly Florida State League in 2018 and caught the whole year, which has him on the upswing, primed for a taste of Double-A in 2019 and a future as a big league regular in view.

Like Stephenson, Santillan wasn’t a summer showcase favorite, only appearing at one fall event where he showed low-90’s velocity and not much else. He emerged in the spring (this always seems to happen with at least one Texas prep arm), running his heater up to 98 mph and flashing a good breaking ball at times. But Santillan was still a work-in-progress strike-thrower and most teams considered him a reliever. Cincinnati took him 49th overall.

He has progressed well in pro ball, with the Reds’ belief in his makeup and athleticism paying off, as he’s gotten more consistent across the board and is now a little more likely to be a starter than reliever. He still mostly has the big stuff he flashed as a prep, though his velo and spin rates are slightly down. Santillan has mid-rotation upside, but his fallback options if the command/consistency doesn’t work in a starter role would be an above-average multi-inning or high leverage reliever, which is much more valuable now than it was in 2015. Santillan could open 2019 in Double- or Triple-A but the pitching-starved Reds seems likely to give him a big league look at some point next year.

Siri is a superb talent who can’t help but take max-effort swings at just about everything. His approach and early-career maturity issues (which have improved but still exist) slowed his development a bit and he only has half a season at Double-A despite being 23 and having played pro ball for six seasons. But Siri has great bat speed, power, and an innate feel for impacting the bottom of the baseball and lifting it into the air. If he weren’t so aggressive (he appeared to be under a mandate to see more pitches in 2018) he’d be an easy plus future hit, plus future power center field prospect in the middle of our top 100.

But the volatility created by the impatience, combined with Siri’s noticeably thicker 2018 frame, has created apprehension. His upside is huge, but so is the risk. Ultimately, he shares many traits with Phillies outfielder Nick Williams (though Siri’s a better defender by a wide margin), and, like Williams, Siri might just be such an amazing offensive talent that he’ll be fine eventually despite his issues and several developmental bumps in the road.

45 FV Prospects

There’s a lot of disagreement in baseball about whether or not Gutierrez’s fastball is going to play in the big leagues. It’s certainly not slow, and routinely creeps into the mid-90s. And the combination of Gutierrez’s size and drop-and-drive delivery creates flat plane that plays well with good curveballs, which he has. But the fastball doesn’t spin and doesn’t sneak over the top of hitter’s barrels, so there’s some fear he’ll be homer-prone. Gutierrez is also an incredible athlete with a video game breaking ball and improving changeup, so we like his chances to turn into something, just probably a no. 4/5 starter. He siged for $4.75 million late in 2016 and spent all of 2018 at Double-A Pensacola.

Siani was a well-known name to scouts years before he was drafted because as an underclassman, he was great at USA Baseball’s Tournament of Stars. That put Siani (as well as Alek Thomas and Jarred Kelenic) much further ahead of the notoriety/perceived polish curve than is typical for cold weather hitters. Siani isn’t physically projectable and doesn’t have big raw power, so he isn’t the sexy upside high school player to whom clubs are drawn, but he does have a long track record of hitting and showing plus defensive ability in center field. He’s a plus runner with a plus arm (90-92 on the mound) and gets great jumps on fly balls. There’s a real chance Siani could have four tools that grade out as a 60, along with power that’s a 45 or 50, and he’s much closer to hitting that upside than most 19-year-olds.

40+ FV Prospects

Between his lack of reps during the ’16-’17 Series Nacional in Cuba and the arduous process of defecting, followed by slowly working out for teams, then waiting for the 2018 season to start, Garcia played very little baseball for the several months leading up to last season and it showed when he finally put on a uniform. The 20-year-old was given an assignment that matched his loud tools (teams who saw him work out were putting 6’s and 7’s on his speed, arm, and defense at short) but not his readiness, and he was bad early in the year at Low-A Dayton. He came on, statistically, at the end of the year, but didn’t walk much in either phase.

Latin American players who have spent their entire lives playing ball back home, or in Florida or Arizona, sometimes struggle with the early-April chill of the Midwest League when they’re first assigned there; as if being 20 in a full-season league after not playing for over a year wasn’t enough, Garcia may have struggled with this. 2019 should be a more representative sample statistically of what Garcia is. There’s no question about his run, field or throw tools, and he was seen at a bat-first prospect early in his Cuban career, so that might be in there, too. If he can develop some confidence around his offense, Garcia could quickly jump into 50 FV territory, which is where we had him last year based on how he worked out for teams. He signed for $5 million.

Richardson was an intriguing two-way athlete on the showcase circuit, then hit 97 mph repeatedly early in his draft spring and moved into top two round contention. His stuff backed up a bit down the stretch. Richardson had not thrown as much as many of his peers and lacked their stamina, though this could be spun into a positive, namely Richardson’s arm being relatively fresh. Late in the spring, he was working more in the low-90’s rather than 93-96 mph, and his shorter stature and stride length led his fastball to be hittable. The Reds are gambling on the plus fastball returning as he builds strength, experience, and stamina in his arm in a starting role, and he has no. 3/4 starter potential with good, clear checkpoints to watch that will indicate improvement, including fastball rebound and maintaining his stuff into the summer.

40 FV Prospects

It’s still unclear to us whether or not anyone knew Friedl was draft-eligible as sophomore in 2016. At the very least, he was overlooked playing on a weaker team in a lightly-scouted conference. He went undrafted, which allowed him to play for College Team USA, who only found out about him from a fortuitous tip, later in the summer.

Friedl was the sparkplug on the heavily-scouted team that included multiple future first round picks, and a bidding war for him amongst teams that hadn’t yet spent their entire 2016 draft pool ensued toward the end of Team USA’s run. Friedl is a plus-plus runner with good baseball instrincts and a contact-first approach at the plate. He has sneaky raw power that he may tap into with swing adjustments.

Somewhat similar to Stuart Fairchild, both have outcomes that range from upper-level 40-man occupant to low-end regular, but Friedl’s bat is more stable and he’s left-handed, so we have him ahead. He’s almost a lock to hang around the big leagues for at least a few years in some role, even if it’s as a fifth outfielder.

Kuhnel wasn’t a top draft prospect coming out of Texas-Arlington: he had a maxed-out, bulky frame, inconsistent command, and just average stuff for a right-handed reliever. In 2018, he took a big step forward. His fastball jumped 3-4 ticks and hit 101, his slider improved into an above-average pitch, and his command also improved a bit. Kuhnel’s conditioning and delivery improved simultaneously and he’s moved to the top of the heap among the relief-only arms in this system. If he continues performing like he did in 2018, he could get a big league look in 2019.

Fairchild had a great draft year. He had a plus arm, above-average speed and defense, solid-average raw power, and performed on paper. The concern was that his swing was a little stiff and had a grooved, invariable path, and it was thought that this might limit his offensive upside and relegate him to a fourth outfielder role. A year and change later, and that’s largely still the report, with likely outcomes ranging from low-end everyday center fielder to 40-man filler/emergency callup depending on how his offense progresses.

Mella (along with Adam Duvall) came back from San Francisco in the 2015 Mike Leake trade. He’s always been on the starter/reliever bubble, in large part because his fastball doesn’t play quite as well as its pure velocity would seem to indicate and because the lack of a truly average changeup forces Mella to use his fastball very heavily. His stuff backed up just a tad last year. He should still be a no. 5 starter or middle reliever if it doesn’t any more.

Spillane burst onto the prospect scene with a gaudy stat line in his draft year at Illinois: 1.401 OPS, 23 homers in 50 games. He’s also not a bad athlete, with a chance to fit everyday in right field, though first base is still his most likely home. Spillane has 60 raw power, plenty for a corner regular, but he needs to either get to all of that raw power (game power is one of his better present skills), or be a 45 to 50 grade hitter to profile in an everyday role. With a limited high-level track record and 41% strikeout rate in his pro debut, that’s still an open question, but that’s also why he lasted until the third round.

Herget is unique among prospects. He’s a side-arming righty with the typical frisbee slider, but he also hits 96 mph and has a good enough changeup and command to get lefties out, too. Herget started in college, worked around 90 mph and was a middling prospect, but the Reds saw potential in his athleticism, his feel to pitch, and his arm slot, and projected he’d experience a velo boost in short stints. They were right. He’s likely to carve out some kind of middle relief role in the big leagues, and will probably get an extended look in 2019.

There are ways to nitpick Lantigua — he’s very likely to move out of center field entirely and he also strikes out a lot– but, ultimately, he’s a switch-hitter with plus power whose two swings are further along than is typical for most 19-year-old switch hitters. Lantigua has big time thump from both sides of the plate and had 26 extra-base hits in just 52 AZL games. The strikeout issues make him a low-floor prospect, but there are very few switch-hitters in the minors with this kind of playable pop, and if Lantigua can hit, find a way to stay viable in center field, or both, he could be an impact regular.

Thomas has a unique skillset, which could develop in a number of different ways, packed into a fullback-like body. An everyday corner bat is his realistic upside. He has explosive strength in his hands, which creates 70 raw power despite ordinary bat speed. He’s a well below-average runner, but has quick feet due in part to his football background. Thomas also closed for UCF, sitting in the low-90’s on the mound. Most scouts project him at first base, but he’ll get some looks at third and there’s a chance he’ll get a look at converting to catcher because of the arm. Those most optimistic see arm strength, a competitive mentatilty, and the short-area explosion necessary to move up the defensive spectrum from first base. There’s lift in the swing and current game power skills that make up for a tendency to chase sliders off the plate. Thomas was an age-eligible sophomore who lasted until later in the draft, where the Reds met his overslot ($287,000) asking price.

We don’t trust Bautista’s Pioneer league numbers (.330/.386/.541, 12% K% at age 20) because of the hitting environment, but we also don’t want to undersell his physical ability. This is a plus runner with plus bat speed who is also tough to strike out because he has good hand-eye coordination. However, Bautista has balance and swing path issues at the plate that limit the quality of his contact in certain parts of the zone. Once he reaches a level of the minors where pitchers can exploit this, he’s going to have to make an adjustment. If he can do that, his ceiling is significant, because he has rare ability. We’d just like to see the signs that he can.

Hendrix went in the 5th round in 2016 as a relief-only, power curveball guy (you could also just call it a slider, we’ve heard it both ways) with some command issues. He’s still largely the same prospect. His mid-90’s velocity stands out a little less now than a few years ago and he’s still a little wild, but he is learning how to use his breaking ball more effectively. Hendrix seems likely, barring injury, to carve out some kind of major league role in middle relief starting in the nexy year or two.

Though he had mostly been throwing in the upper 80s as an underclassman, Lopez’s ticked into the mid-90s as he entered the fall before his junior year at Seton Hall. His elbow got sore. After an effort to rehab without surgery, Lopez had TJ, missed his junior seasonand fell to the sixth round.

Though his peak velocity hasn’t returned, he averages about 92 mph on a fastball that touches 95 and features enough life that it’s capable of missing bats up in the zone. His secondaries are mostly average, and he should debut in 2019 as a relief or backend starter option.

Of the shortstops on the main portion of this list, Hernandez has the best chance to stay at the position. His hands and actions are both characteristic of a promising teenage shortstop and he has enough arm for the left side of the infield. Hernandez has also performed reasonably well with the bat as a pro, which is surprising given his clear lack of physical strength. He could have a below-average offensive profile and stay at short, which gives him a chance to be a 50 if he gets stronger into his twenties. If not, he could still be a low-end regular or utiltiy type. He turns 20 in April and should see full-season ball for the first time in 2019.

Marinan had a velocity jump during his draft spring and has had some issues in the two years since dialing in his arm speed and refining his delivery. His velo has varied a bit, but when he’s on, he’ll work 92-94, hit 97 mph, flash an above-average breaking ball, and have the look of a potenial league-average — or a bit better — starter. Other days, he’s just a big guy with a clean arm, some velocity, and little else. He’s further along in the search for starter traits than lefty Jacob Heatherly is, but you can lump them in the same group as talented young arms that need to show consistency.

35+ FV Prospects

Built like an old school in-the-box NFL safety, Beltre is a physical dynamo whose entire offensive profile is undercut by his extreme propensity to hit the ball into the ground. Beltre has a nearly 60% ground ball rate over each of the last two years. He does a lot of other stuff: he has raw power, great feel for the strike zone, and is a plus runner, with well-regarded makeup. The quality of his in-game contact is simply not good right now. Stiffness in Beltre’s hitting hands could mean this issue is less about a swing change than it is about innate talent.

Case is a bat-first prospect with power and some chance to stick at second base, who signed for $1 million as a 2017 fourth round pick. Early-career hip surgery has limited his defensive mobility, so he’s more of a wait-and-see, somewhat one-dimensional prospect to keep an eye on in 2019. If everything comes together he could be a passable second baseman with game power.

Heatherly looked like a first round pick heading into his draft spring, then had command issues and slipped. He then had some velocity issues early in pro ball. The command still isn’t there and even Reds’ personnel describe him as a ball of clay, but he was working 92-94 mph in instructional league and he can spin it, and some think he may turn a corner next season, where his no. 4 starter potential could become more obvious.

Yon has an NBA shooting guard build at a long-limbed 6-foot-5. He towers over almost all of his peers and has rare physical projection. He might grow elite raw power, though it will be a challenge for him to hit due to his lever length. Hitters like this often don’t develop viable hit tools until they’re well into their mid-twenties. Yon may take another five years to develop a playable hit tool, but as long as the power develops, he’ll get getting chances to learn how to make contact.

Santana is a R/R corner power bat with a plus arm. His swing needs polish if he’s to hit, and his defensive actions need polish if he’s going to stay at third. There’s a chance he moves to right field and strikes out too much to profile, but he may also stay at third and hit for big power if his ills are cured. He’s on pace to be a 2020 19-year-old in full-season ball.

60 FV Prospects

Hiura reached Double-A in his first full pro season, and then was clearly one of the top five or six talents in the Arizona Fall League, where he won League MVP. Most importanly, his arm strength is once again viable at second base. An elbow injury relegated Hiura to DH-only duty as a junior at UC Irvine, and he may have gone even earlier in the 2017 draft if not for concerns about the injury and how it might limit his defense. That’s no longer a concern, as Hiura has an average arm and plays an unspectacular second base. This is an incredible hitter. He has lightning-quick hands that square up premium velocity and possesses a rare blend of power and bat control. Hiura’s footowork in the box is a little noiser than it has to be, and if any of his swing’s elements are ill-timed, it can throw off the rest of his cut. This, combined with an aggressive style of hitting, could cause him to be streaky. But ultimately he’s an exceptional hitting talent and he’s going to play a premium defensive position. We think he’s an All-Star second baseman.

50 FV Prospects

Lutz’s 2018 foray into full-season ball (.272/.348/.477 in May, June and July) was bookended by two awful months (he hit .180 in April, .215 in August) resulting in a .245/.321/.421 line. Already at physical maturity, Lutz’s huge power is the foundation of his profile. He’s capable of hitting long home runs to left and center, and he has the raw strength to drive out mis-hit balls the opposite way. Everything else he does is average. Adept at identifying breaking balls in mid air, Lutz’s moderate swing-and-miss issues stem from his mediocre bat control. This might limit his game power output, but the issues aren’t so bad that we’re worried about Lutz not hitting entirely. He has below-average range and instincts in right field, but his arm is plus. Lutz will likely start next season, age-20, at Hi-A. He projects as a middle-of-the-order power bat who provides little value on defense.

Despite his notable 2018 statistical output — 66 extra base hits, including 27 home runs, and 37 steals on 44 attempts at Double-A Biloxi — we’re still somewhat apprehensive about Ray and have him graded out exactly as we did last offseason, when he was coming off a terrible statistical campaign. Ray, long lauded for his makeup, made some adjustments to remedy the timing issues that plagued him in 2017. His front hip is clearing earlier, enabling him to catch some of the inside pitches that were tying him up last year. This has seemed to improve the quality of Ray’s contact, but it hasn’t remedied his strikeout issues. Ray struck out in 29.3% of his 2018 plate appearances and had a 17.5% swinging strike rate, the latter of which would rank as the 15th most frequent SwStr% in the majors last year. Ray swings through pitches in the zone fairly frequently and despite his prodigious physical abilities, his offensive profile feels unstable. His up-the-middle defensive profile gives him some wiggle room on offense, but he’s not a very instinctive defender and is closer to average in center field than one might expect given his speed. Players can succeed despite heavy strikeouts; Chris Taylor’s skillset looks an awful lot like Ray’s (power, strikeouts, and a pedestrian defense at a premium position) and Taylor was a 3 WAR player last year. Ray’s peak could look like that. He’s also similar to players like Franchy Cordero, Brad Zimmer, late-career Colby Rasmus, and an even longer list of hitters who also have lean years when they don’t hit and produce closer to replacement level. We expect peaks and valleys over the course of a long career from Ray.

45 FV Prospects

Even as an underclassman playing alongside rising seniors like Nick Allen, Hunter Greene, Nick Pratto and Royce Lewis, Turang did not look out of place. In addition to his a balletic defensive abilities, he was also a polished hitter who had advanced strike-zone feel. Turang struck out just once as a high scool junior and entered his final showcase summer at the top of his high school draft class. Then, he stopped hitting. After looking sluggish during the summer and fall, Turang’s placement among the first round candidates changed. He fell to the back half of the first round and signed for $3.4 million, roughly $400,000 over slot. After signing, Turang looked so much more advanced than the rest of the AZL that he was pushed, after just two weeks, to the Pioneer League. Throughout the summer and fall, he ran deep counts and walked a lot, but made little impact contact. He’s shown average raw power in BP, so perhaps he’ll eventually have the developmental option of sacrificing contact to get to it. As long as some aspect of his offense develops, especially as it seems likely to be paired with a great idea of the strike zone and plus shortstop defense, Turang should be an above-average regular.

If not for suffering a left ACL tear during a rundown in early May, Dubon, who had a 23-game hit streak at the time, probably would have debuted in 2018 due to Milwaukee’s middle infield woes. Instead, Dubson missed much of the season and is on track for a likely 2019 debut. He’ll be the first native Honduran to play in the majors. Dubon was acquired (along with Travis Shaw) as part of a lopsided package for Tyler Thornburg. His elite hand-eye coordination and bat control drive a contact-oriented offensive profile. Since coming over from Boston, Dubon has thickened his once frail-looking frame and improved upon some of the things that limited his in-game power. He was rotating better early in 2018, with the timing of his hip/hand spearation being better, too, and he was no longer ditching his leg kick with two strikes. His 2016 Portland and 2017-2018 Colorado Springs slugging outputs are probably cariacatures of his true talent level, but Dubon should at least have doubles power. Defensively, Dubon is passable at shortstop and second base. He saw time in center field during the 2016 Fall League but hasn’t played there since. Lots of scouts like him as a super utility type, but Dubon will be 25 in July and he hasn’t played anywhere other than the middle infield at any point in his career, save for that Fall League. It’s more likely he gets a chance to be Milwaukee’s everyday shortstop in 2019 and, provided he hasn’t lost a step due to the ACL tear, we like him as a low-end regular there.

The Brewers 2018 Minor League Pitcher of the Year, Brown has now performed at every level up through Double-A. Trepidation regarding his ability to start stems from Brown’s wonky, violent delivery. But he’s never had issues filling up the strike zone, has a pitch mix sufficient for navigating lineups several times, and hasn’t had an arm injury, with his lone pro DL stint was due to an ankle injury caused by a comebacker. He’s likely on a path similar to Corbin Burnes and Freddy Peralta, where he’ll initially debut as a multi-inning reliever, but a fine three-pitch mix means Brown could eventually transition into a starting role, profiling as a #4/5.

40+ FV Prospects

Feliciano had a totally lost 2018 due to various nagging injuries. He was limited to just 42 games at Hi-A, and two in the Fall League. While at Hi-A Carolina, he struck out in 36% of his plate appearances. Feliciano also has one of the higher ceilings in this system. He turned 20 shortly before this list went to press, so his inabiltiy to perform as an 18-year-old in full-season ball in 2017 and a 19-year-old at Hi-A in 2018 is less troublesome due to his age. When healthy, Feliciano has shown bat control and above-average power on contact. If he can develop defensively (a process which has, thus far, been slow due to the reps lost to injury), Feliciano will be a catcher with a complete offensive profile, and a potential star. Teenage catching prospects are notoriously volatile and often, a decline in physical tools and/or stagnant defensive development starts with chronic injury. Feliciano’s 2018 is what the start of past catching bust narravites look like. This is a very talented, volatile prospect who could be at or near the top of this list next year or be off it in two.

40 FV Prospects

Signed for $1.1 million in mid-July, Garcia had an eye-opening instructional league. His range, hands, actions and arm are all easy fits at shortstop, and he could be a plus glove there at peak. His entire offensive profile depends on his frame filling out. Garcia’s lack of strength is evident with the bat in his hands, but you can go kind of nuts projecting on much of his skillset, including the speed and arm strength, because Garcia so clearly has lots of physical growth on the horizon and is an above-average athlete. He’s so young that he wasn’t even eligible to sign on July 2nd because he was still 15. Were he a domestic high schooler, he wouldn’t be draft eligible until 2020, when he’d be just shy of 18. His development may initially be slow, but he has significant literal and figurative growth potential and a non-zero shot to be a well-rounded shortstop at peak.

It became clear during instructional league in Arizona that we were low on Ashby before the draft. Despite his clear issues– he has below average command caused by an arm slot that makes it hard for him to work in all parts of the zone–Ashby has nasty, left-handed stuff. He was up to 94 this fall, and the pitch has flat plane and lives in the top part of the zone, where it sneaks past barrels. Ashby’s two breaking balls need better demarcation, but they each flash plus and his changeup flashes average. He turns 21 in May, and should carve up the lower levels of the minor leagues with his stuff alone. His ability to locate and effectively mix his pitches will dictate his ultimate role and how fast he moves. For now, Ashby fairly conservatively projects in a multi-inning relief role.

On the surface, Gray looks like a pretty standard right field prospect. He’s a projetable 6-foot-3, has present power and might grow into more, and he has some swing and miss issues due to poor breaking ball recognition. But upon extended viewing, Gray’s feel for center field is advanced and he has a better chance to stay there than is typical for a prospect his size. Gray has had strikeout issues in the AZL (he missed AZL time with a respiratory issue, not an injury), during fall instructional league and against good high school pitching. We’re skeptical of his ability to make sufficient contact but if he does, he’ll be a power-hitting center fielder.

A bat-first high school catcher who was considered a long shot to stay behind the plate, Henry has made sufficient developmental progress as a defender and now projects to stay back there. Always in possession of a strong throwing arm, his once thick frame is now learner and more agile, enabling him to better handle the athletic burdens of catching. He also has huge raw power that he doesn’t often get to in games because Henry’s bat path causes him to drive the ball into the ground at a 50% clip and he’s also prone to swing and miss. Now that Henry’s defensive future is more in focus, he may just be a swing tweak away from a statistical breakout.

Stokes is Diet Khris Davis. He’s limited to LF/DH duties because of nearly unplayable arm strength, and he’s able to hit for in-game power despite blatant swing-and-miss issues due to his ability to consistently hit the ball in the air. Stokes’ extreme, pull-only approach to contact makes him vulnerable to breaking stuff down and away from him, and he is going to swing and miss at an above-average clip. But he’s also adept at identifying balls and strikes. There is some precedent for this type of offensive profile (low batting average, above-average OBP, and power) working in left field. It looks like Kyle Schwarber–though Stokes doesn’t have that kind of raw pop–or late-career Curtis Granderson. Stokes runs well enough that he could be an above-average defender in left field but he might also give back significant value there becauase of his throwing issues. He’s an odd one who we think fits as the smaller half of a corner outfield platoon and pinch runner.

Webb was a rare, draft-eligible freshman because he had Tommy John as a senior in high school, then missed all of what would have been his freshman year at South Carolina while he recovered. He was a 21-year-old redshirt freshman when he was drafted in 2016. Webb’s measurables don’t properly capture his size; his broad shoulders mimic the shape and proportions of a generic minor league batter’s eye. He has a mid-90s fastball and upper-70s curveball that pair well together, as the latter has sharp, vertical action and bat-missing depth. Webb continued to log innings as a starter up through Double-A, but he likely projects in relief. His changeup has improved and he was healthy throughout 2018, though his fastball control remains below-average. But the stuff is nasty enough that Webb could be a high-leverage or multi-inning reliever, especially if his fastball ticks up in a single, max-effort inning.

The amateur side of scouting considered Grisham to be perhaps the most advanced high school hitter in the 2015 draft. Cut to 2018 and Grisham is a career .238 hitter. The low batting averages he has posted have been due less to his inability to put the bat on the ball and more to an approach that is passive in excess. Grisham watches a lot of driveable pitches go by. That approach is also part of why he’s never run a season walk rate beneath 14%, and Grisham’s ability to reach base is part of why he’s still such an interesting prospect. There has also been an approach change here, one that may have impacted his plate coverage. In two years, he has transitioned from an all-fields doubles doubles approach to a pull-oriented hitter. In the 2018 Fall League he was fouling off pitches that he used to slice for doubles the opposite way. Still only 22, Grisham has physical talent (he once projected, for us, as an average regular) that may resurface with some approach changes, but this current iteration probably isn’t a big leaguer.

After initially looking like he was an egregious underdraft immediatley following his 2016 matriculation from Menlo, Erceg has been frustrating and enigmatic. The only constant has been his 70-grade arm. He’s nearly 24 now and some of our sources, no longer enamored with his bat, are ready to see him on the mound. (Erceg pitched in college at Cal and then, after he transferred, closed at Menlo.) When Erceg is going at the plate, he’s dropping the bat head and golfing out pitches down and in, or flaying pitches away from him down the third base line for a double. But as his career has drawn on, his swing is often ill-timed and its components don’t seem to be cohesive. He’s also not extending through contact as dramatically as he was in college. Whatever the reasons for Erceg’s struggles, he has hit. He has made progress as an infield defender, but he has to hit some to profile. He’ll be 24 in May.

Abreu’s combination of instincts and speed give him a fair chance to stay in center field, but he’s not a lock to remain there. He has above-average bat speed but his ultra-conservative lower half usage hampers his in-game power production. He might suddenly start hitting for more game power with a small change in that regard. Though just 19, Abreu has already added a lot of good weight since signing. His frame already looks maxed out, so there’s not a whole lot of raw power projection left here, and if there is, it’ll come at the cost of Abreu moving to an outfield corner.

Supak owns a career 3.43 ERA and has now reached Double-A. He has an average four-pitch mix that works because he has above-average command, and because his fastball, which lives in the top part of the zone, has flat, tough-to-catch plane. When Supak misses his spot it’s often in a place where he can’t get hurt, essential because neither of his breaking balls–a relatively new curveball and a slider/cutter that we have labeled as a cutter, since we think it’s best suited for use like a cutter–is nasty enough to live in the strike zone and instead are best when buried beneath it, or garnering awkward swings at floaters above the zone. He’s a near-ready back-end starter.

Diplan’s body and control have each backpeddaled since his electric 2016 season. His fastball velocity is also less consistent now than it was at that time; he’ll bump 97 at times but sit 89-93 at others. He walked a whopping 74 hitters in 118 innings last year, but still has tantalizing stuff. His changeup is plus, his slider flashes plus when he finishes it properly and sometimes, the velo is there. When Diplan is right he looks like a nasty, multi-inning reliever, but the arrow is pointing down.

Wahl, who turns 27 in March, was part of the two-player package Oakland sent to the Mets for Jeurys Familia last summer. He has just twelve career big league innings at this age mostly because Wahl missed extended development time due to multiple surgeries, including one in 2017 to remedy Thoracic Outlet Syndrome. His stuff was back last year. Wahl’s fastball sits in the mid-90s and will touch 99. He has a four-pitch mix but works primarily with the fastball and a power, mid-80s breaking ball that has bat-missing vertical action. A firm cutter and changeup are also folded in on occasion. Wahl has set-up man stuff but below average command and more significant injury risk than most pitching prospects.

Rodriguez is a plus-plus-running center field prospect with a slash-and-dash approach at the plate. He is currently unable to turn on pitches and do any real offensive damage, but his defensive profile, speed, and hand-eye coordination make him an interesting follow. Barring a swing change that enables him to turn on more pitches, he projects as a fourth outfielder, but at age 18, there’s lots of time for that adjustment. There’s a pretty rare skillset at the core of Rodriguez’s profile.

Bello signed for an under slot $550,000 as a second rounder. He’s a polished, contact-oriented center field prospect without typical big league physicality. He has several tweener traits, and might end up as a bench or platoon outfielder. A path toward everyday reps involves Bello developing a plus bat or glove, which are both in the realm of possibility as he has great breaking ball recognition and bat control, and good instincts in center field. He is one of several Hawaiian players drafted by Milwaukee since 2014 (Kodi Medeiros, Jordan Yamamoto, KJ Harrison, Kekai Rios).

Ernesto got $1.8 million in 2017. His profile hasn’t changed at all since he was written up last year. He’s a switch-hitter with surprising pop for his age and build, but neither swing is dialed in quite yet. He runs well-enough to give center field a try for a while, but will probably move to a corner at physical maturity. He’s a well-rounded physical talent with little present feel to hit.

The Brewers also acquired Adam Hill, the Mets 2018 4th round pick out of the University of South Carolina. Hill was dominant during the first four starts of his junior year, but his control disappeared once the Gamecocks began conference play. He struggled to throw strikes for two months leading up to the draft and fell to the fourth round. Hill does have good stuff. He’ll sit 90-94 and his big, 6-foot-6 frame and lower arm slot combine to create a unique look for hitters. His slider breaks late and has good length when located to Hill’s arm side, and Hill’s changeup has good action because of his lower arm slot. His limited command probably relegates Hill to the bullpen eventually, but he has #4/5 starter stuff if he can develop better control in his mid-20s, which sometimes happens to pitchers this size.

Howell was a pleasant, toolsy, post-draft surprise whose combination of speed and crude bat control was too much for AZL defenses to deal with. A JUCO draftee would only turned 20 in September, Howell has some catalytic offensive qualities and a chance to play somewhere favorable on defense. He saw time at shortstop and third base during the summer and fall, but Eric and several scouts think he ends up in center field. Physical development will play a sizeable role in Howell’s future, especially as far as his bat is concerned. He will be the age of a college sophomore in 2019.

Andrews is weird. He’s just 5-foot-6 and throws in the upper-80s but he has two really excellent secondary pitches in his curveball and changeup. He played two ways at Long Beach State and performed well (54 K’s, 7 BB’s in 33 pro innings) after signing. We don’t know what he is but we think it’s something.

Zhao is one of very few Chinese players in pro ball–we know of two others: Itchy Xu (BAL) and Hai-Cheng Gong (PIT)–and is the most talented. The 17-year-old broke off some ferocious curveballs during instructional league that elicited verbal expletives from onlooking scouts. His fastball control is very raw. Right now, Zhao is just a very young developmental project who can really spin it.

Taylor’s performance tapered off in 2014 and he spent several years slugging about .330, then spent much of 2017 injured. He had a statistical breakout at Triple-A in 2018 that could be attributed to the hitting environment at Colorado Springs, but Taylor has made significant changes to his swing and the uptick in power could be a PCL cariacature of real, meaningful change. Once a wide-based, no-stride swinger, Taylor now has a big leg kick and his batted ball profile has changed dramatically between 2016 (the last, reliably large sample we had) and now. He was added to the 40-man this offseason and is a sleeper breakout candidate.

Houser finally made it back to the majors in 2018 after missing significant time due to Tommy John. During that time, he remade his body into a lean, more flexible vessel and his velo was up a bit; instead of 92-95, he was sitting at 94-95 last year. His curveball didn’t have good finish during his brief big league time but it has been average and flashing above in the past. His changeup is now clearly his best secondary offering. Houser’s fastball plays down a bit due to lack of movement and it’d be nice to see the breaking ball bounce back, but for now he projects as a middle reliever.

35+ FV Prospects

A $1.1 million signe from July, Fernandez is a R/R corner outfield projection bat with present feel to hit. He’s already quite a bit more physical now than he was as an amateur, so the rest of the power might come pretty quickly.

Pinero was originally with Boston but was granted free agency as part of their 2016 international bonus bundling scandal. He’s a plus defensive shortstop–he has elite hands, but his range and athleticism are suspect–with very little bat. Pinero has a lanky frame, but he’s a slow-twitch hitter with below average bat speed and he won’t necessarily grow into offensive impact. His likely range of positive outcoms spans from glove-first bench infielder to low-end regular.

Coca is an average middle infield defender with below-average offensive tools. If those grow to average, he could sneak up on us and be an everyday player. If they continue to hang in the 40/45 area, Coca will be a utility option.

Castillo signed for $140,000 in 2017. His swing has a good foundation, he’s an athletic middle infield defender, and his frame has some room for mass as he matures. He had a good fall instructional league showing.

Long a notable amateur prospect due to his projectable, wide receiverish frame, Ward has made significant mechanical progress and is already much more of a refined baseball player than he was a senior in high school. He’s still mostly a lottery ticket frame who you’re hoping grows into big power, but now his underlying skills have started to develop.

Lemons was up to 96 in high school, often sitting in the low-90s. He was 90-92 this fall with an average slider that has horizontal wipe during instructs. He’s a big-framed projection arm whose stuff hasn’t ascended yet.