The Dodgers traded forYu Darvish. Below are the projections for the prospects the Rangers received in exchange for Darvish’s services. WAR figures account for the player’s first six major-league seasons. KATOH denotes the stats-only version of the projection system, while KATOH+ denotes the methodology that includes a player’s prospect rankings.
Calhoun has hit a rock-solid .298/.357/.574 at Triple-A this season as a 22-year-old second baseman. His power numbers have been undoubtedly helped by the PCL and he doesn’t exactly look like a premium athlete. But still: Calhoun’s blend of contact and power makes him extremely exciting. His defense, however, is suspect. Clay Davenport’s metrics say his defense at second has improved this year, but going from unbelievably bad to merely really bad doesn’t do much to help Calhoun’s case. Calhoun is a prospect without a position for now, so a move to the American League makes a ton of sense. KATOH had Calhoun as the Dodgers’ second-best prospect, behind Alex Verdugo. Read the rest of this entry »
Yu Darvish was traded to Los Angeles ahead of the deadline. In return, Texas got three good pieces, including one very entertaining one who will be ready to contribute to the big club soon.
After months of scouring the market for another starting pitcher and weeks of industry chatter suggesting it would likely, eventually, be Sonny Gray, the Yankees have acquired the righty shortly before the trade deadline. It came at a fairly steep price. Below is analysis of the prospects sent to Oakland in the deal.
Teoscar Hernandez is northward bound. (Photo: Keith Allison)
The Astros acquired Francisco Liriano in exchange for Nori Aoki and Teoscar Hernandez. Below are the projections for Hernandez, who is the sole prospect headed to the Blue Jays. WAR figures account for the player’s first six major-league seasons. KATOH denotes the stats-only version of the projection system, while KATOH+ denotes the methodology that includes a player’s prospect rankings.
Hernandez has technically had stints in Houston both this season and last, but has spent most of 2017 with the Astros’ Triple-A affiliate. He only played one game with the Astros this season, coming in as a defensive replacement for Carlos Beltran. In Triple-A, he flashed his typical power-speed combination, racking up 12 homers and 12 steals in 79 games (though he was caught stealing seven times). In addition to his power and speed, Hernandez also draws a healthy amount of walks and has played solid right-field defense this year. He struck out in an acceptable 21% of plate appearances this year, which is a huge improvement from where he was a few years ago. Read the rest of this entry »
All three of the prospects acquired by New York project as relievers. The 22-year-old Callahan and his deceptive, over-the-top arm action had a dominant, walk-less month at Double-A to start the year before a promotion to Triple-A Pawtucket. Since arriving in Rhode Island, he has since struggled a bit with command. He has struck out 36 hitters in 29 innings at Triple-A, but has walked 13. He sits 94-97 and has a short, fringey slider in the 87-90 mph range, and a below-average change-up. Both secondaries project to average and Callahan projects in a middle relief role.
Bautista, a 22-year-old Dominican, is the most explosive of the three, sitting 95-99 mph and touching 100 with his fastball. He was signed back in April of 2013 at age 18 and then missed time that year due to a positive PED test. The following year, Bautista’s career began at age 19 in the Dominican Summer League and he has, more or less, been behind the developmental eight-ball since then. He owns a 5.16 ERA at High-A, largely because of wildness and ineffective secondary offerings — his slider flashes above average, but is mostly fringey, and the change-up is below average. But his arm strength is enticing.
Nogosek was a 2016 sixth rounder out of Oregon. He began his first full pro season as Low-A Greenville’s closer and dominated there until late June, when he was promoted to High-A Salem. Nogosek’s pitching regimen started to include multi-inning outings shortly before the trade. He struck out 18 hitters in 17.2 innings with Salem, walking 10. The righty sits 90-95 mph and will flash a plus slider. He pitches aggressively and projects to have average command.
Of the three, Bautista has the highest upside because he has the best arm. If he ever tightens up his slider he could be a set-up man. Callahan is, obviously, the closest to yielding major league value. Nogosek has the best secondary pitch of the group and the best command projection, too, and is probably the most stable long-term bet of the three, though his lower arm slot might cause platoon issues at upper levels and limit his role.
The Yankees traded for Sonny Gray. Below are the projections for the prospects the Athletics received in exchange for Gray’s services. Although he is a major part of this trade, I do not have a projection for James Kaprielian, who has thrown just 29 innings as a professional and zero since April 2016. WAR figures account for the player’s first six major-league seasons. KATOH denotes the stats-only version of the projection system, while KATOH+ denotes the methodology that includes a player’s prospect rankings.
The surging Kansas City Royals bolstered their Major League club on Sunday by adding veteran OF Melky Cabrera. They sent RHP A.J. Puckett and LHP Andre Davis to Chicago in the exchange.
Royals get
OF Melky Cabrera
White Sox get
RHP A.J. Puckett
LHP Andre Davis
Puckett, Kansas City’s second round pick out of Pepperdine in 2016, is an above average athlete with a potential plus changeup. He was a promising two-sport athlete in high school before a car accident left him in a medically-induced coma for two weeks to slow his blood loss, and essentially ended his football career. His rashes of wildness in pro ball have been surprising to those who saw Puckett attack the strike zone in college, but scouts are still optimistic that his athleticism will yield at least average command at maturity.
His fastball sits in the low-90s and his curveball is fringey. The curveball and command both need to improve, and if they do Puckett could pitch at the back of a rotation. He had a 3.90 ERA at High-A Wilmington before the trade and was owner of a 20% K% and 9% walk rate. He turned 22 in May.
Davis, an eighth-round pick in 2015 out of Arkansas-Pine Bluff, is a big-bodied lefty with a bat-missing changeup of his own. He isn’t as athletic as Puckett and there’s dissent about his ability to start (scouts don’t love his delivery), but Davis has thrown strikes this year, will flash command of all his pitches, and his funky delivery helps his otherwise fringe slider play up against left-handed hitters. He sits 92-94 with some movement, and while he’s already 23 and only in Low-A, we are talking about a small-school, 6-foot-6 lefty here, and these types of pitching prospects are often a bit behind. He projects into a relief role, but I think there might be more than that here.
The Cubs traded for Justin Wilson and Alex Avila. Below are the projections for the prospects the Tigers received in exchange for their services. WAR figures account for the player’s first six major-league seasons. KATOH denotes the stats-only version of the projection system, while KATOH+ denotes the methodology that includes a player’s prospect rankings.
Candelerio was slashing .266/.361/.507 in the Pacific Coast League this year, with a bunch of doubles and walks. The PCL has surely helped his power numbers a good deal, but his 12% walk rate illustrates that he does a decent job of controlling the strike zone. Defensively, Candelario has been an above-average third baseman this year in the minors. Although he’s been in the Cubs’ system forever, Candelario’s still just 23. A 23-year-old third baseman who can both hit and play average-ish defense is a fine prospect.
To put some faces to Candelario’s statistical profile, let’s generate some statistical comps. I calculated a Mahalanobis distance between Candelario’s Triple-A performance and every Triple-A season since 1991. In the table below, you’ll find the 10 most similar seasons, ranked from most to least similar. The WAR totals refer to each player’s first six seasons in the major leagues. Please note that the Mahalanobis analysis is separate from KATOH. KATOH relies on macro-level trends, rather than comps. The fates of a few statistically similar players shouldn’t be used to draw sweeping conclusions about a prospect’s future. For this reason, I recommend using a player’s KATOH forecast to assess his future potential. The comps give us some interesting names that sometimes feel spot-on, but they’re mostly just there for fun.
Despite being just 18 years old, Paredes is already in and has held his own in full-season ball, slashing .261/.341/.399 with a 14% strikeout rate in Low-A. That’s encouraging for an 18 year old, but it’s especially encouraging coming from an 18-year-old shortstop. Scouts are a tad skeptical of Paredes, citing a lack of physical projection and athleticism needed to stick at shortstop long-term. KATOH picks up on this too — by way of his height (5-foot-11) and lack of stolen bases — but still finds him very intriguing due to his combination of youth, contact and defense. As a Low-A hitter, Paredes has a long way to go, but he has several characteristics that often portend to big league success.
Detroit gets
INF Jeimer Candelario
INF Isaac Paredes
Candelario, now 23, is a known talent. He has long been a promising offensive prospect, hitting at a .270/.351/.433 career clip in pro ball with a 10% walk rate. He is fluid and comfortable in the box, shows good bat control and hand-eye coordination, and makes in-flight adjustments to offspeed pitches that he’s capable of striking to all fields. He’s a tough out and projects as a plus hitter with average game power. That power isn’t exciting at first base (where many scouts project Candelario to fall, defensively) but it is passable and, with his keen eye for the strike zone, Candelario projects as an average offensive regular at first.
Candelario has an above average arm and has improved his conditioning, so while the general consensus still believes him to be a first baseman, it’s becoming less common for scouts to knock his lateral quickness. That, combined with Detroit’s current big league roster makeup (which has seen butcher Nick Castellanos at third and immovable god Miguel Cabrera at first) and continued advancements in defensive positioning make Candelario’s defensive future a bit foggy, but hopeful. He was just barely off my top 100 entering the year and will be on the updated list in the next few weeks.
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2010 from Dominican Republic
Age
23
Height
6’1
Weight
210
Bat/Throw
B/R
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit
Raw Power
Game Power
Run
Fielding
Throw
55/60
50/50
45/50
40/30
40/45
55/55
Clubs have been asking for Paredes in trades for over a year now. Teams discovered him in many different ways but they’ve all become smitten with the 18-year old “shortstop” for one reason or another. Some clubs flagged him for excellent statistical performance in last year’s AZL when Paredes was just 17 but hit .305/.359/.443 and only struck out in 10% of his plate appearances. Some scout the AZL heavily and were sent glowing reports about his feel to hit. He seems likely to continue to do that. After a hot start, Paredes struggled to hit the ball hard for about a month and owned a .240/.310/.333 line on June 4. He’s righted the ship and has tallied 19 extra-base hits since then and was up to .264/.342/.401 before the trade.
Scouts have varied opinions about Paredes’ defense. He does not project to shortstop for any scouts with whom I have spoken, nor does he for me. Some clubs who entertained the idea of acquiring him last year had plans to move Paredes, who was rather girthy at the time, to catcher. Others have him projected to either second or third base. Paredes has improved his conditioning and isn’t as soft-bodied as he was last year but he remains boxy, square, and simply unlike what the lion’s share of big league shortstops look like when they’re 18. Of course, if he hits the way many in the industry think he will, that might not matter.
The Royals traded for for Melky Cabrera to sure up their outfield. Below are the projections for the prospects the White Sox recieved in exchange for his services. WAR figures account for the player’s first six major-league seasons. KATOH denotes the stats-only version of the projection system, while KATOH+ denotes the methodology that includes a player’s prospect rankings.
