Archive for Prospects

Astros’ Paulino Another Find in Recent Trade

The Houston Astros acquired right-hander David Paulino and outfielder Danry Vasquez from the Detroit Tigers at the trade deadline in 2013 for a two-month rental of reliever Jose Veras. At the time Vasquez was a rising prospect for the Tigers and the centerpiece of the deal. Paulino was nothing more than a rail-thin project to sweeten the pot.

A lot has changed since then: Paulino has bulked up, his fastball has gained velocity and the breaking ball has taken a step forward developmentally. Across three levels of A-ball this season, the 21-year-old boasts an impressive 72:19 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 67.1 innings. Here are my notes from seeing Paulino in extended spring training this year.

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FanGraphs Audio: Kiley McDaniel on These Expanded Rosters

Episode 593
Kiley McDaniel is both (a) the lead prospect analyst for FanGraphs and also (b) the guest on this particular edition of FanGraphs Audio — during which edition he discusses notable September call-ups (such as current Dodgers prospect Corey Seager and former Dodgers one Hector Olivera), the significance of 17-year-old Red Sox pitcher Anderson Espinoza sitting at 95-99 mph, and also curiously proportioned/offensively gifted Dodgers prospect Willie Calhoun.

This edition of the program is sponsored by Draft, the first truly mobile fantasy sports app. Compete directly against idiot host Carson Cistulli by clicking here.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 1 hr 13 min play time.)

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Tigers’ First-Rounder Burrows Impresses in Debut

The Tigers selected right-hander Beau Burrows, one of the hardest throwing prep arms in the class, out of Weatherford High School in Texas with the 22nd-overall pick a few months ago. After quickly signing for just over slot value ($2.1 million), Burrows was assigned to the Tigers’ Rookie-league affiliate in the Gulf Coast League. The 18-year-old right-hander put together an impressive professional debut, with above-average numbers but, more importantly, Burrows’ pre-draft stuff and command were present and he showed the aptitude to adjust to pro instruction. I observed two of Burrows’ starts, on August 13 and August 27.

Physical Description
Generously listed at 6-foot-2 and 200 pounds, Burrows is likely closer to an even six-feet tall and has a mature build for his age. There’s solid strength in Burrows’ upper body and core. His lower half is exceptionally strong with fairly thick tree trunk legs; there’s minimal physical projection remaining. That being said, Burrows’ frame already resembles that of a potential innings eater.

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Projecting the First Wave of September Call-Ups

We’ve made it to September, which means September call-ups are upon us. Like every year, most of the players called up during roster expansions aren’t all that interesting. They’re mostly spare parts, like third catchers and replacement-level bullpen arms. But a few of the guys who were called up yesterday stand a good chance of making an impact in the big leagues over the next few years. Here’s a quick look at three of the more intriguing young pitchers who will get their first taste of the big leagues this month: Zach Davies, Frankie Montas and Miguel Almonte. I anticipate more top prospects will get the call over the next week or so once the minor league seasons come to a close. I’ll hit on them as they’re called up. (Note: WAR figures, unless otherwise specified, indicate total WAR through age-28 season.)

Zach Davies, Milwaukee Brewers, 5.2 WAR

Zach Davies fell all the way to the 26th round in the 2011 draft, but rose through the prospect ranks by performing at every minor-league stop. He spent the 2015 season in Triple-A, where he’s pitched to an impressive 3.30 ERA and 3.36 FIP over 23-starts. Although he rarely tops 90 mph with his fastball, Davies has still managed to post average-ish strikeout and walk numbers as a 22-year-old in Triple-A. Furthermore, he’s managed to induce plenty of ground balls (55% ground-ball rate according to MLBfarm), which helps explain how he’s allowed just six homers in 128 innings on the year.

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FanGraphs Audio: Kiley McDaniel, Lead Prospect Analyst

Episode 590
Kiley McDaniel is both (a) the lead prospect analyst for FanGraphs and also (b) the guest on this particular edition of FanGraphs Audio — during which edition he discusses the curious treatment by the Washington Nationals of prospect Trea Turner, the uses and not-uses of big-league scouts, and McDaniel’s dramatic re-assessment of right-handed Houston prospect Francis Martes.

This edition of the program is sponsored by Draft, the first truly mobile fantasy sports app. Compete directly against idiot host Carson Cistulli by clicking here.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 55 min play time.)

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Let’s Talk About Jabari Blash

Of the 338 Triple-A hitters who have recorded at least 200 plate appearances this season, only two have an isolated-power (ISO) mark north of .300. The first is Richie Shaffer, an interesting Rays prospect who spent some time in the big leagues this season. The second is a player by the name of Jabari Blash. No, that’s not a character from Harry Potter, or even an Edith Wharton novel. Jabari Blash is a real, live outfielder in the Mariners organization.

Blash has hit a ridiculous .246/.370/.624 in 50 games at the Triple-A level this year. Prior to that, he slashed a similarly ridiculous .278/.383/.517 in 60 Double-A contests. But it’s his very recent performance that really stands out. Since August 6th, the 6-foot-5 slugger has put together a .292/.395/.785 performance on the strength of his 10 home runs. Those are essentially peak Mark McGwire numbers.

Blash’s stats are great. His downside, however, is that he just turned 26. Players who are 26 don’t normally come up in prospect discussions. Most 26-year-old baseball players are either big leaguers or minor leaguers who aren’t worth thinking twice about. Blash, however, might be worthy of a second thought.

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Astros Power Arm Martes Emerges as Top Prospect

Astros right hander Francis Martes started the year in extended spring training and Kiley McDaniel had him graded as a 35+ FV. Martes was one of the lesser pieces in the big Jarred Cosart/Colin Moran trade and he was in Rookie-level ball at the time of the trade. From last year to early in 2015, Martes’ velocity jumped, his breaking ball jumped from fringy to at least plus, all of which has helped his above-average changeup play even better. Last week, Kiley graded Martes as the top prospect in the minor leagues that wasn’t in his pre-season Top 200, falling somewhere among the top-50 prospects in baseball and earning at 55 FV grade.

Martes went out to Low-A from extended spring this year, then to the hitter-friendly High-A Cal League where he dominated again until the 19-year-old scorching hot prospect got the promotion to Double-A on Monday. Here’s my observations from two looks at Martes earlier this year in extended spring training, in April/May when his whirlwind season was just getting started and very few scouts were paying attention.

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Struggling Nationals Call on Trea Turner

It’s no secret that the Washington Nationals have fallen short of expectations this season. At 62-61, the unanimous NL East favorites from the preseason sit 5.5 games behind the Mets with a discouraging 19% chance of winning the NL East. Things have been particularly ugly of late, as the Nats have won just 11 of their last 30 games.

As Dave Cameron pointed out last week, several of the biggest culprits for the team’s struggles are members of the team’s offensive core. Anthony Rendon and Ryan Zimmerman have been bad. Jayson Werth’s been worse than that. But perhaps the biggest disappointment has been the team’s shortstop, Ian Desmond, who was projected for the second-highest WAR among Nationals hitters by ZiPS. Desmond’s .229/.279/.384 batting line has put him within spitting distance of replacement level — a far cry from his preseason ZiPS forecast of 4.0 WAR.

Despite his struggles, the Nationals stuck with Desmond over the season’s first four-and-a-half months, trotting him out there in 119 of their 123 games this season. But on Friday, the team began to diverge from the status quo. After weeks of speculation, the Nats finally summoned prospect Trea Turner to the big leagues to help solidify the shortstop position from here on out.

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Kiley McDaniel Prospects Chat – 8/25/15

11:08
Kiley McDaniel: I’ll be back and start answering questions in a couple minutes.

11:17
Kiley McDaniel: Kiley is here and ready to chat with YOU

11:17
Comment From Bret
Not a pure prospect question, but definitely one about an exciting young player. Should the Jays have any apprehension about having Marcus Stroman return to the rotation in a few weeks if his rehab goes well?

11:18
Kiley McDaniel: The answer to any question about returning from an injury is1) they should be careful to not risk his future in coming back to soon
2) they know way more about his body than I do, so I can’t tell you much more than you already know

11:19
Comment From Xolo
Were he eligible, where would Javier Baez fall in your rankings?

11:20
Kiley McDaniel: I was always low on him–I think I put him in the teens a few years ago and people were telling me I was crazy to not put him in the top 5. He’d be a 50 or 55 at this point but I haven’t really thought about him much since he lost prospect eligibility and everyone I’ve talked to about him said he hasn’t made any adjustments…and makeup/coachability/attitude concerns are the reason I’ve always been the low one on him

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Kiley McDaniel Prospects Chat – 8/19/15

12:09
Kiley McDaniel: Kiley is ready to chat now

12:09
Comment From Hobbes2d
Hey Kiley,

12:09
Kiley McDaniel: Hey!

12:11
Comment From Nelson
Which list did Pompey not make it onto? Is he less than a 50FV?

12:12
Kiley McDaniel: Noticed that a few guys for that rookie list slipped through my filters, like Pompey (50) and Alex Gonzalez (50). I’ll go back in and add them after the chat.

12:13
Comment From Colby
Would Kopech have made your updated list of the non 200 if he wasnt suspended?

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