Mick Abel has a classic starter profile and a high ceiling. No. 20 on our recently-released 2022 Top 100 Prospects list, and No. 1 on our Philadelphia Phillies Top Prospects list, the 20-year-old right-hander features a four-seam fastball and a diving slider, plus offerings that he augments with a changeup and a curveball. Drafted 15th overall in 2019 out of a Beaverton, Oregon high school, the 6-foot-5, 205-pound hurler is, in the words of our prospect team, “a prototypical power pitching prospect with huge arm strength, a plus breaking ball, and the frame [to potentially grow into] a No. 1 or 2 starter.”
Abel discussed his repertoire, and his early-career development, over the phone last week.
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David Laurila: How much have you learned about your pitches since signing with the Phillies?
Mick Abel: “I think I had a really good sense coming in, with how I was brought up with Kevin Gunderson back home. He was sharing the analytical side a lot better than a lot of kids would get from their pitching coaches. But I’ve definitely learned a lot. I’ve learned about things like seam-shifted wake, which is something I’ve asked about a lot.
“As far as my data goes, I haven’t tried to do too many crazy things with it. I know that I’ve got the stuff. It’s more so, ‘How am I going to maintain that, and not deviate too far off of what my normal numbers are?’”
Corbin Carroll is obsessed with baseball. He’s also immensely talented at the game he grew up playing in the Seattle area. Drafted 16th overall by the Arizona Diamondbacks in 2019, the 21-year-old left-handed-hitting center fielder is ranked 14th on our recently-released Top 100 Prospects list.
In the words of our prospect team, Carroll possesses “a blend of physical gifts and heady baseball acumen,” and is expected to “produce at an All-Star level for much of his career assuming a return to full strength.” Most notable in his tool grades are his running ability, which is 70/70 present and future, and his hitting ability, which is 70 future.
Carroll, who missed all but seven games of the 2021 season due to a shoulder injury, discussed his approach and hitting mechanics over the phone Wednesday afternoon.
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David Laurila: Let’s start with a self-scouting report. Who are you as a player?
Corbin Carroll: “In my eyes… that’s good question. I’d say I like to view myself as a spark plug, someone who is getting the team going and will go the extra step to do whatever it takes to score more runs than the other team. I think that translates in terms of some tangible skills on the field, and maybe to some intangible ones, as well.”
For the seventh year, I’ve run down the Top 100 prospects as seen by the ZiPS projection system. If you’re unaware of what the ZiPS projections are or what they’re trying to do, please consult this article for further information or the MLB.com executive summary. To make a long story short, ZiPS is a computer system that attempts to turn an avalanche of data into a player projection. (The Z stands for Szymborski, because I didn’t realize in 2003 that this project would be useful enough that I’d need to think of a good name.)
I like to think that I’ve developed a pretty useful tool over the years, but don’t get me wrong: a projection system is not even remotely a substitute for proper scouting. While ZiPS and other systems like it can see patterns in the data that can be hard for humans to extract, humans have their own unique tricks. Projecting prospects is challenging. You’re mostly dealing with very young players, some of whom aren’t even done physically developing. They also play baseball against inconsistent competition and have much shorter resumés than established major leaguers.
Having a real baseball season in 2021 makes me feel a lot stronger about this set of projections than last year’s. Last year, ZiPS faced the challenge of projecting prospects based on data when the vast majority of them hadn’t played in an actual baseball game for an entire year. It’s still not as much data as I’d like — more seasons is always preferable — but if we continue to have minor league seasons, we’ll hopefully get back to our pre-2020 level of confidence in the next couple of years. Read the rest of this entry »
It’s common for our readers to ask which of the players who aren’t on this year’s Top 100 might grace next year’s. Who has a chance to really break out? This is the piece for those readers, our “Picks to Click,” the gut-feel guys we think can make the 2023 Top 100.
This is the fifth year we’ve conducted this exercise at FanGraphs, and there are some rules. First, none of the players you see below will have ever been a 50 FV or better in any of our write-ups or rankings. Second, we can’t pick players who we’ve picked in prior years, but the other writers can. For instance, Eric picked Wilman Diaz last year, but he didn’t make the Top 100. Eric can’t select Diaz again, but Kevin and/or Tess could if they wanted, though they’ve opted not to. Last year, we decided to make this somewhat competitive to see which of us ends up being right about the most players. Below is a brief rundown of how the site’s writers have done since this piece became a part of Prospects Week; you can click the year in the “Year” column to access that year’s list. Our initials began appearing next to our picks in 2021, with an asterisk denoting the players we both selected. (In the table, the format for that year’s results is “Kevin’s guys (mutual selection) Eric’s guys.”) We don’t count “click echoes,” guys who enter the 50 FV tier multiple years after they were Picks to Click, toward our totals. For example, MJ Melendez was a 2018 Pick to Click, but he didn’t enter the 50 FV tier until this offseason, so he doesn’t count. Here’s how we’ve fared in the past:
We’ve separated the players into groups or “types” to make the list a little more digestible and to give you some idea of the demographics we think pop-up guys come from, which could help you identify some of your own using The Board. For players whose orgs we have already covered this offseason, there is a link to the applicable team list where you can find a full scouting report on that player.
Romo has a huge arm and has performed better from a bat-to-ball standpoint than we thought he would coming out of high school, especially against right-handed pitching. Rodriguez could fit in several of the categories you’re about to explore since his feel to hit is his carrying tool. A 2021 first-rounder, Ford notched 16 hits in 19 games on the complex, 10 of which went for extra-bases. He’s got plus speed and might be a center fielder if he isn’t a catcher. O’Hoppe has elite makeup in addition to a well-rounded toolset.
This group is mostly comprised of well-rounded hitters who play corner positions, except for Butler and Stowers, who historically have been power-over-hit types. Of those two, Butler is the one more likely to find an extra gear through continued adjustment, while Stowers’ huge, fun hacks feel like a cemented style. Harris hit 10 bombs with an .872 OPS at Low-A before being promoted to High-A, where he hit 10 more (and posted a 1.073 OPS) in half the number of games. In 110 games across the two levels, he also racked up 25 stolen bases and 21 doubles, and only struck out 73 times. If he can polish his approach and stay at third base, he’s a good bet to be on next year’s list. Gelof and his odd swing had a great instructs, and he’s an excellent third base defender. Sweeney was 63rd on our 2021 Draft rankings, which was probably too low, as he covers the whole plate and has enough power to be dangerous.
This group includes players who might already be solid big leaguers given their current abilities, but could become impact players if they can change the nature and quality of their contact. (This would also describe Garrett Mitchell, who Kevin picked last year and would have again if allowed.) Crow-Armstrong has already made a swing change, one that was evident in early-2022 backfield activity. The new swing looks like it might better enable him to catch fastballs at the top of the zone, but we won’t know until play begins. De Los Santos has amazing raw power for his age but drives the ball into the ground often, and his epicurean approach may be exposed at the upper levels.
Salas, who could also be in the “Just Missed” Group, is a physical, lefty-hitting shortstop with above-average bat speed and advanced feel for contact. Though his big 2021 SLG% is not emblematic of his actual raw power, he has a good looking swing and feel for the barrel, projecting to have a balanced offensive skillset while he stays at short. A two-way high schooler with an mid-90s fastball, Winn mostly played shortstop in 2021 and hit well enough for him to continue developing as a two-way player for now. He didn’t hit as well after a promotion to High-A, struggling with secondary stuff, and he might eventually end up exclusively on the mound, but for now he’s a 1-of-1 sort of prospect with one of the best infield arms in the game. Ramos torched extended spring training and Complex League ball in Arizona, where he was a little older than a lot of the other players. He was promoted to Rancho and kept hitting for huge power, but pitchers there started to get him to chase. The Dodgers fall instructs were packed with scouts (their group of players there was incredible, and they’re deadline buyers in perpetuity) and Ramos lit it up again, hitting huge, all-fields tanks. Keep in mind that he is Andy Pages‘ age but started 2021 two levels below him. Vaquero, Washington’s $5 million amateur signee from January, has the Vitruvian Center Fiedler’s build, can absolutely fly, and has big power for his age.
Epic Bounce Back Osiris Johnson, 2B/CF, Miami Marlins (EL) Noah Song, RHP, Boston Red Sox (EL)
Gunnar Hoglund, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays (EL) – Full Report
Ty Madden, RHP, Detroit Tigers (KG) – Full Report Nick Nastrini, RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers (EL)
Johnson had a terrible start at Low-A Jupiter, striking out in nearly half his at-bats during the first few weeks of the season. He was sent down and rebounded on the complex (he had a 32% barrel rate down there) and earned a trip back up to full-season ball. He hit a respectable .261/.339/.342 on his second try, pretty good for a 20-year-old who had missed 2019 and ’20. Johnson has huge bat speed, his swing is geared for lift, and he has experience at several up-the-middle positions. If he can be more selective, he could break out. Song had first round talent at Navy but his service commitment, and unfortunately-timed changes to rules around exemptions for military athletes, pushed him to the fourth round. He may have a path back into baseball this year and we wouldn’t be surprised if this guy has stayed in baseball shape. He could move very quickly through the Sox system in a late-inning bullpen role. Nastrini dealt with several amateur injuries, including TOS surgery as a freshman at UCLA, and he couldn’t get out of the first inning in either of his final two pre-draft collegiate starts, but he pitched very well in the California Collegiate League just before the 2021 draft. He flashed plus-plus stuff during the late summer and fall with the Dodgers but also had periods of wildness.
McLain (the Reds’ first rounder out of UCLA) and Tovar both have plus hit tools, fringy power, and play up the middle. McLain has experience in center field and might end up playing several positions and be best at second base, while Tovar is a plus glove at short.
This group was barely outside the current Top 100, and each of us thinks our picks here will check one last box and move onto the list later this year. Bradish and Nelson are on the starter/reliever line. Bradley, just 20, struck out more than 30% of the batters he faced in 2021 (Low- and High-A combined), with a more refined fastball shape than he had in years past and a good slider. He could end up the next in a long line of recent Rays pitching development success stories if he polishes his splitter. Cristian Pache and Drew Waters both plateaued at the upper levels in part because they have aggressive approaches. Harris is also in this vein. There are up-the-middle players with approaches like his, but we’ve begun to wait until they perform at the upper levels, rather than assume they will like we did with Pache and Waters.
Susana is a strapping 6-foot-6, 235 pounds and is just a little bit shy of his 18th birthday. He is already sitting in the mid-90s and has a nasty slider. Raya, an athletic over-slot high schooler the Twins selected in the 2020 draft, still hasn’t thrown a pitch in an affiliated game but he’s been sitting 95 mph in bullpens, has a potential plus-plus breaking ball, and won’t turn 20 until August. Curry commands a fastball that is impossible for hitters to get on top of, while Allen is a classic pitchability lefty. Both are potential low-variance 50s for next year.
Several members of this group are currently starters but we think all of them could be high-leverage relievers at the drop of a hat. Battenfield has a vertically-oriented fastball/curveball attack, and his slider has distinct shape from his curve, looking like a cutter a lot of the time. He can also create action on his changeup. Sitting 92-93 mph as a starter, he could be a great multi-inning reliever very quickly. Pepiot has typical command-oriented relief risk, but an incredible changeup and a hard cutter/slider. Crouse’s funk and moxie fit in the bullpen. Mikolajchak has four pitches but leans heavily on his fastball (which has huge carry) and tilting slider. He is the lone relief-only name here. Solomon seemed poised to break out in 2020, but then he blew out and needed Tommy John. He has been in the mid-90s in the bullpen.
Kevin Goldstein: Hi everyone. I’m here. Tess is here, Eric is here. We hope you’ve enjoyed Prospect Week and our Top 100 list. Thanks to Eric and Tess for all the work they put it, and thanks to behind the scenes folks on this like Meg Rowley’s gigantic editing load, Sean Dolinar’s crazy great tech work, and Luke Hooper’s wonderful design work.
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Eric A Longenhagen: Hello from Tempe and thanks for joining us
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Kevin Goldstein: Anyway, let’s chat!
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Tess Taruskin: Hey everyone!
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Guest: Luis Medina at 60 overall seems to suggest at least a reasonable chance of becoming a starter?
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Kevin Goldstein: Reasonable chance, yes, but it’s far from a guarantee . . . very far in fact. Stuff is fantastic.
Grayson Rodriguez continues to ascend. Ranked 30th last year, the 22-year-old right-hander in the Baltimore Orioles organization is No. 3 on our newly-released 2022 Top 100 Prospects list. Moreover, he’s the highest-ranked hurler. Blessed with a lethal arsenal of pitches, Rodriguez possesses, in the opinion of Eric Longenhagen and Kevin Goldstein, “the potential to be a No. 1 starter and Cy Young candidate.”
On the eve of last year’s Top 100 release, we ran an interview with Rodriguez that focused on his changeup/screwball. To augment this year’s ranking, we caught up to the fast-rising righty to discuss the developmental strides he’s made since last season, and to ask him what it feels like to be the top pitching prospect in the game.
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David Laurila: We talked 12 months ago. What’s changed since that time?
Grayson Rodriguez: “I would say the one thing I’m most proud of is that my average velocity has increased. When we last talked, the previous year’s average velo was 95.7 [mph]. This past season, I was able to get it up to 98.5. That [is], up until the last month of the season when it dropped a little bit; in September, it was 96.8. So, getting the average velocity up was big for me. I was working in the strike zone more often with that little extra velo.”
Below is our list of the top 100 prospects in baseball. The scouting summaries were compiled with information provided by available data and industry sources, as well as from our own observations. This is the second year we’re delineating between two anticipated relief roles, the abbreviations for which you’ll see in the “position” column below: MIRP for multi-inning relief pitchers, and SIRP for single-inning relief pitchers.
And now, a few important things to keep in mind as you’re perusing the Top 100. You’ll note that prospects are ranked by number but also lie within tiers demarcated by their Future Value grades. The FV grade is more important than the ordinal ranking. For example, the gap between Julio Rodríguez (No. 4) and Triston Casas (No. 16) is 12 spots, and there’s a substantial difference in talent between them. The gap between Mark Vientos (No. 64) and Patrick Bailey (No. 76), meanwhile, is also 12 numerical places, but the difference in talent is relatively small. You may have noticed that there are more than 100 prospects in the table below, and more than 100 scouting summaries. That’s because we have also included 50 FV prospects whose ranking fell outside the 100. Their reports appear below, under the “Other 50 FV Prospects” header. The same comparative principle applies to them.
You’ll also notice that there is a Future Value outcome distribution graph for each prospect on the list. This is an attempt to graphically represent how likely each FV outcome is for each prospect. Before his departure for ESPN, Kiley McDaniel used the great work of our former colleague Craig Edwards to find the base rates for each FV tier of prospect (separately for hitters and pitchers), and the likelihood of each FV outcome. For example, based on Craig’s research, the average 60 FV hitter on a list becomes a perennial 5-plus WAR player over his six controlled years 26% of the time, and has a 27% chance of accumulating, at most, a couple of WAR during his six controlled years. We started with those base rates for every player on this year’s list and then manually tweaked them depending on our more specific opinions about the player. For instance, Elly De La Cruz and Steven Kwan are both 50 FV prospects, but they are nothing alike. De La Cruz could be a switch-hitting shortstop with plus-plus power or he might turn into Seuly Matias. Meanwhile, Kwan has performed through the upper minors and is almost certain to contribute to a big league team, but doesn’t have nearly the same power potential or high-end ceiling De La Cruz does. Our hope is that the distribution graphs reflect these kinds of differences.
This year’s crop of prospects is a little bit down in the 60 and 55 FV tiers. Typically, the 55 FV tier runs to about the 50th overall prospect on the Top 100 (which again isn’t really a Top 100, so much as a ranking of all the 50 FV and above prospects, but that title is an SEO nightmare), but this year’s group only extends through No. 32. This might be due to random variation in the prospect population, or have to do with the lost year of development in 2020 or the new rules surrounding rookie eligibility, which caused several players to graduate off our lists more quickly than in the past. Jose Barrero and Keibert Ruiz, for example, would have been eligible under the older roster rules. Those guys can be found on The Board’s Graduates section. Or perhaps our evaluations are just wrong.
For a further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, please read this and this. If you would like to read a book-length treatment on the subject, one is available here. Read the rest of this entry »
The Red Sox have upped the quality of their farm system in recent years, and Paul Toboni has played a key role in that ascent. Boston’s director of amateur scouting since September 2019 — he was assistant director for three years prior — the 32-year-old University of Notre Dame MBA has helped facilitate drafting players such as Marcelo Mayer and Nick Yorke. Originally hired by the Red Sox as an intern, Toboni became an area scout in 2015 before climbing up the ranks to his current position.
On the road scouting when this conversation took place, Toboni talked about the process itself, the philosophies that shape an organization’s decision-making, and some of the notable draftees the Red Sox have brought on board.
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David Laurila: Let’s start with the basics. What exactly does an amateur scout do?
Paul Toboni: “It depends on your responsibility. We have a number of area scouts across the country who are responsible for areas ranging in geographical size, and also in player density. There are a lot of players coming out of Southern California, so maybe we have two scouts there. We also have a scout covering Arkansas, Oklahoma, and all the way through North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, and Kansas. An area scout’s job, really, is to be at the grassroots level and get to know these players really well. They talk to coaches, turn in reports, and come up with their lists.
“It flows upward from there, to our regional cross checkers. I think teams around the league are organized pretty similarly in that [the cross checkers] cover four or five area scout’s areas. From there it goes to national cross checkers, who are responsible for covering the whole country. Then it’s the front office.”
Mike Elias had a background in scouting and player development when he came to Baltimore in November 2018. The Orioles general manager and executive vice president broke into pro ball as a scout with the St. Louis Cardinals in 2007. Four years later, he was hired by Houston to serve as the club’s director of amateur scouting; in 2016, the Astros promoted the Yale University graduate to assistant GM and put him in charge of player development.
The challenges he inherited in Baltimore were daunting. Elias took over a team that had just lost 115 games — the most in franchise history. The Orioles’ divisional competition is comprised of the powerhouses of the American League East. The rebuild was going to be anything but easy. Moreover, it would take time, much to the chagrin of a dedicated fanbase.
But light is starting to appear at end of the tunnel. Under Elias’ guidance, the Orioles have built one of baseball’s best farm systems, with Adley Rutschman, Grayson Rodriguez, D.L. Hall, Colton Cowser, Gunnar Henderson and Coby Mayo all featured on our forthcoming Top 100. Most notable are Rutschman and Rodriguez, who rank as the game’s top position player prospect and top pitching prospect, respectively.
As part of our Prospects Week interview series, Elias discussed the organization’s approach to scouting and player development.
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David Laurila: I’ve asked you about the relationship between scouting and player development in previous interviews, and I’ll do so again now. In what ways has that relationship changed?
Mike Elias: “It continues to meld. As the days and years go by — given how sophisticated player development is becoming — how easy it is for an organization to communicate with itself is an underrated factor. I joined professional baseball in 2007, so I was already in the internet age, but if you talk to people who were working in professional baseball in the ‘80s, ‘90s, and early 2000s, a lot of effort was put into staying in touch with your remote employees. They would use voicemail. So a lot of the practices and divisions between scouting and player development come out of an era when it was hard for everyone to stay in touch. That’s no longer the case. Read the rest of this entry »
Michael Fransoso is a great fit for a Mariners player-development machine that thrives with a process-based philosophy. Seattle boasts one of the top farm systems in the game, and Fransoso, a 31-year-old University of Maine graduate who played multiple professional seasons, is an up-and-coming hitting instructor who is fully-invested in that approach. His tutelage has thus far been at the lower rungs of the minors: He spent last season working with many of the organization’s best position-player prospects in the Arizona Complex League, and this year, he’ll be the hitting coach at low-A Modesto.
Earlier this month, Fransoso discussed the Mariners’ developmental philosophy and the some of the young hitters he’s been helping to hone.
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David Laurila: You joined the organization in November 2019. What were the conversations like during, and immediately following, the hiring process?
Michael Fransoso: “Very process-based. Andy McKay was our farm director, and everything kind of flows through him. He’s very process-based, and also big into the mental game. That was huge. I felt like all of my conversations with the hitting department aligned. Everybody was on the same page in terms of the Mariners’ process — how we want to develop hitters — and they were able to deliver that message to me in a clear way. Really, it’s about dominating the zone.”
Laurila: I think it’s safe to say that all teams want their hitters to dominate the zone. What is the actual process?
Fransoso: “When you hear ‘dominate the strike zone,’ you might think it means ‘swing at strikes and take balls,’ but it’s not that simple. We want it to be simple, but hitting isn’t simple. Dominating the zone is more of a mindset. It’s also an individual approach to manage that hitter-pitcher matchup. When you break it down, the only thing a hitter controls is whether we swing at that pitch. We don’t have control over what the pitcher throws, how hard he’s throwing, or the break. We don’t even control whether it’s a ball or strike, because that’s up to the umpire. Read the rest of this entry »
