If you’re going to spend big on a free agent closer, you should probably shop at the top of the market. That’s what the Astros did this past offseason, shelling out $95 million over five years to bring Josh Hader home. Last season, Hader was unhittable, with a 1.28 ERA in 61 appearances and 33 saves in 38 opportunities.

This year, not so much. His ERA is 6.39, and was over 9.00 on Tax Day. He’s only had two saves, which is partially his teammates’ fault, but Hader has also blown a save and taken a loss. The Astros, meanwhile, have struggled to find spots to use him. He’s had only one save opportunity since the first week of April, including a weeklong stretch in which he didn’t pitch at all. Tuesday night, Hader had his first two-inning regular-season relief appearance since 2019. Not the start either Hader or the Astros envisioned, I think we can all agree. Read the rest of this entry »

On Tuesday night, in his 26th game of the 2024 season, Alex Bregman hit his first home run. It didn’t come a moment too soon. Over his first 25 games, Bregman had run a wRC+ of 65. Until this year, he’d never had a stretch of 25 games in a single season in which he’d hit so poorly. Even in his worst season, an injury shortened 2021 campaign, he still finished with a 114 wRC+ and 2.1 WAR. So far this season, Bregman has been worth just 0.2 WAR. A cursory look at Bregman’s numbers over those first 25 games tells a very simple story: zero home runs, .268 SLG, .052 ISO. That’s not just a power outage. That’s a catastrophic grid failure. Only once before has Bregman posted an ISO this low over a 25-game stretch: In 2017, in the 54th through 78th games of his entire career, his ISO was .044. Because he’s been an impact player for so long, it’s easy to forget that Bregman is just 30 years old. It’s not as if Father Time has suddenly caught up with him, and he’ll surely bounce back at some point. But what’s going on right now?

Bregman has always had a somewhat odd offensive profile. As Houston hitting coach Troy Snitker told reporters, “He doesn’t hit for power because he hits the ball harder than most guys; he hits for power because he hits it in the air more than most guys.” In his entire career, Bregman has posted an above-average hard-hit rate just once, and he’s never broken 40%. However, he has impeccable plate discipline and bat-to-ball skills, and he’s constantly pulling the ball in the air. Although he’s recorded an above-average barrel rate just once, he’s never once had a below-average sweet spot rate. If you’re pulling the ball in the air, especially at Minute Maid Park, you don’t need to hit the ball hard enough to qualify for a barrel; you just need to hit it hard enough to get to the Crawford Boxes. Since 2015, Bregman has hit 18 home runs at or below 95 mph, second in all of baseball to Didi Gregorius with 19.

Snitker saw Bregman’s approach as an opportunity. “So with guys like that,” he said, “if you can have any small improvements to how hard the ball is coming off (the bat), he benefits the most, because he’s already getting the most balls out there.” This offseason, Snitker proposed weighted bat training in order to increase Bregman’s bat speed, with the goal of adding just a single mile per hour in exit velocity: “Just his batted-ball profile with 1 mile an hour is worth a lot in production,” said Snitker. Bregman explained that the focus was “trying to move (the bat) as fast as I could.” After four months of training, Bregman said, his bat speed numbers increased significantly without having any adverse impact on his mechanics. Coming into spring training, Bregman said he felt like his swing was “in the best spot that it’s been in years.”

Needless to say, the results have not been there. Bregman’s hard-hit rate is down, as are his average exit velocity and his 50th percentile exit velo. However, his 90th percentile EV is doing just fine and he’s nearly matched his max from last season. It’s not that he can’t hit the ball as hard as he used to; it’s just that he’s not doing it as often.

But it’s not just his contact quality; it’s his entire batted ball profile. Bregman’s groundball rate has exploded while his pull rate has cratered. His pull rate hadn’t been below 42% since his rookie season, but this year it’s at 33.7%. Only once before has he had a groundball rate as high as 40%; this year he’s at 42.7%. Look at his spray charts from 2023 and 2024. There’s so much less in the outfield, especially to the pull side.

Bregman’s line drive rate has cratered. When he hits the ball on the ground, he’s rolling over the it and sending it to shortstop rather than ripping it down the line. His fly ball rate is nearly the same, but when he puts it in the air, he’s often dropping his back shoulder, resulting in a weakly hit ball to right field.

If we combine the contact quality and batted ball profile, the picture becomes more clear. In 2023, Bregman’s hard-hit balls had an average launch angle of 13.6 degrees, and his balls that weren’t hard-hit were at 20. This year, those numbers are 10 and 26.8. As it’s currently constituted, Bregman’s swing just doesn’t seem as optimized as it once was for hard contact in the air. In the launch angle charts below, I’ve highlighted the exit velocities above 80 mph. In 2023, his average EV was that high on just about anything except popups and balls hit straight into the ground. This year, not only is he hitting the ball at optimal launch angles less often, when he does, he’s hitting it softer.

So that’s the bad news. Now let’s look at some reasons for optimism. First of all, it’s still April (or at least it was while I was writing this). Bregman usually starts slow, though not this poorly; his career 110 wRC+ in March/April is his worst of any month. And maybe he just needs some time to get used to his new swing. Second, a big reason for Bregman’s problems is that his line drive rate cratered, and line drive rates are notoriously fickle. Third, Bregman has been seeing tougher pitches this season. Because he succeeds by lifting the ball to the pull side, it’s no surprise that pitchers have always tried to attack him away and down. However, they’ve done a much better job of hitting that outside corner this season. He’s seen more pitches on the edges of the zone and fewer pitches right down the middle than in any previous season. The heat maps below show the location of the pitches he saw in 2023 and 2024.

After looking at these, maybe we shouldn’t be surprised that Bregman has made worse swing decisions and had a harder time pulling and lifting the ball. Assuming pitchers don’t remain that precise all season, this could be something that evens out over time.

When a player stops pulling the ball, it also makes sense to check whether they just can’t get around on the fastball anymore, but that doesn’t seem to be the problem. Although he’s had poor results against four-seamers, a pitch he usually crushes, Bregman is both chasing and whiffing against them less often than he did last year. It’s breaking and offspeed stuff that’s giving him fits, and players don’t usually forget how to hit soft stuff after eight excellent big league seasons. That lends credence to the idea that Bregman has merely been struggling with timing issues. That his homer last night came against a changeup should make it all the more encouraging.

Let’s assume that Bregman’s weighted bat work did give him some more power. Maybe we should be encouraged by the fact that his exit velocity hasn’t fallen all that drastically, considering the fact that he hasn’t really been swinging at the right pitches or making the kind of contact he wants. Maybe when he does figure those things out, that extra power will announce itself.

It’s also worth noting that Bregman’s batting stance looks different this season. His stance was slightly closed in 2023, but this year he’s squared up to the pitcher and a little more upright. Additionally, his leg kick is often less pronounced now than it was last season. In the stills below, I captured Bregman at the moment when his knee was at its highest; it’s subtle, but you can see that it’s a bit higher on the left, in 2023. Despite these changes, by the time he gets his foot down, it looks to me like he’s in pretty much the same hitting position that he was last year.

I don’t want to come anywhere near blaming Bregman’s struggles on his new stance or the changes he made to his swing. There are a million things that could be affecting his performance, and it would be facile to seize on the few that I can see or read about in the Houston Chronicle. That said, these are a lot of changes to make to a swing in a single offseason, especially when that swing has been so effective. Maybe Bregman just needs some time to get used to facing big league pitching with this swing, or maybe he needs to consider returning to what was working for him before. After a two-hit perforamnce in Mexico City on Sunday, Bregman noted that he something seemed to click when he tried getting into his load earlier. Either way, things are bound to pick up sooner or later, if for no other reason than that they couldn’t get much worse.

Spending money can be a lot of fun, but spending someone else’s money is even better. And that’s exactly what we’re doing today!

About a month into the season is typically when I look at some of the players who are prime extension candidates and the possible deals they might work out with their teams. As usual, the contracts here are not necessarily what I would offer the players or what they will get, but what the mean, cold-hearted projections think would amount to a fair agreement. For each player, I’ve included their ZiPS projections with the latest model updates.

Elly De La Cruz, Cincinnati Reds (Nine years, $192 million)

It’s going to be a long time until Elly De La Cruz is eligible for free agency, but if the Reds wish to signal to the fans that the best players they develop will be in Cincinnati for longer than their middle arbitration years, ownership is going to have to make a real commitment to one of them at some point. And who is a better option than De La Cruz? I would have said Matt McLain a few months ago, but his major shoulder surgery makes it a risky time for both team and player to come to a meeting of the minds on a future dollar figure. De La Cruz still has issues making contact, but his plate discipline has continued to improve since his debut. He’s drawing a lot more walks this year and he’s actually been better than the average major leaguer at not chasing pitches. And with better plate discipline should come more power because a greater percentage of his swings will come against pitches that he can actually drive.

As you can see below, he wouldn’t need to exceed his 50th percentile projections for home runs by much to secure a 40/40 season. In fact, after hitting his eighth home run of the year Monday night, De La Cruz is currently on pace for 45 homers and an absurd 101 steals this season — and he still has a lot of polishing left to do. He’s also showing he’s far from a defensive liability at shortstop, even though a healthy McLain is still probably preferable there. This contract buys out some of De La Cruz’s early free agency years and gives him a big wad of guaranteed dough.

Corbin Burnes, Baltimore Orioles (Eight years, $210 million)

If you’ve been following my work for a while now, you surely know I’m an Orioles fan. And like many other Baltimore fans, I remember the moment when I became unhappy with the ownership of the late Peter Angelos. My feelings toward him soured because of how he and the Orioles handled their free agent negotiations with Mike Mussina. After Moose had previously taken a hometown discount, the O’s assumed he would continue to pitch for them at a below-market rate, and as a result, they lowballed him the next time he was eligible for free agency. He declined, leading to the second-best pitcher in team history finishing his career wearing Yankee pinstripes and ensuring that his Hall of Fame plaque wouldn’t have an ornithologically correct bird on the cap.

While I still think the team should lock up Grayson Rodriguez long term, it’s far more urgent< for the O’s to extend Corbin Burnes, given that he hits free agency after the season. No better pitcher will be available this winter, and nobody in the minors anywhere, for any team, is a safe bet to be better than Burnes over the next five or six years. New owner David Rubinstein has said all the right things, and he made a nice gesture when he bought everyone at Pickles a round of drinks, but the best way to show that he’s serious about building a perennial contender is to not let his team’s ace sign elsewhere. Given the O’s have just about nothing in the way of financial obligations, there’s no reason not to extend him. If that means paying more than that figure above, so be it.

Bo Bichette, Toronto Blue Jays (Seven years, $151 million)

Let’s be clear, despite his uncharacteristic struggles so far this season, I think Bo Bichette will command more than $151 million, and while the Blue Jays may balk any amount greater than that figure, they should still be willing to pay him whatever it takes to keep him around for the bulk of his career. Because of his position and his consistency (again, his first month of this season notwithstanding), Bichette has emerged as the best scion of a baseball family in Toronto, and time’s running out to extend bounty hunter Boba Chette before he hits free agency after the 2025 campaign. I actually think he’ll age better than ZiPS does, at least offensively. Either way, shortstops get super expensive if you wait until they hit the open market. That means that now’s the time for the Blue Jays to extend him if they’re going to keep him, even if that means going over this projected offer to ensure he doesn’t reach free agency.

Alex Bregman, Houston Astros (Four years, $101 million)

The Astros have been able to let some of their offensive contributors walk in free agency — Springer and Carlos Correa among them — mainly because they’ve had pretty solid replacements coming up at the same time, such as Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker, and Jeremy Peña. There’s no similar player on the horizon who can take the place of Alex Bregman. And with Houston already reeling with its pitchers, it would be a lot to ask the front office to fill a gaping hole at third base as well.

Max Fried, Atlanta Braves (Six years, $150 million)

Atlanta has a knack for being able to survive epidemics of pitcher injuries in ways that are fascinating if you’re a fan of the team and maddening if you root for another one. But with Spencer Strider already out for the rest of this season after undergoing internal brace surgery for his damaged elbow, can Atlanta really afford to let Max Fried and Charlie Morton depart this offseason? I like what Reynaldo López has done this season, but you don’t really want to go into 2025 counting on his continued success, Chris Sale’s health, and a full recovery from Strider following his second UCL procedure? The Braves reportedly offered six years, $162 million to Aaron Nola; how could they not make a similar offer to Fried, a similarly valued pitcher who has been a large part of their recent success? Now, all reports I’ve heard suggest Fried’s not keen on discussing an extension during the season, but that doesn’t mean he wouldn’t change his mind if Atlanta gives him a good reason to do so.

Josh Naylor, Cleveland Guardians (Four years, $80 million)

Since the start of the 2002 season, the Guardians have received 10,109 plate appearances from first basemen not named Jim Thome, Carlos Santana, or Josh Naylor. Those 57 hitters have combined to hit .253/.324/.426 for 7.7 WAR, or about 0.5 WAR per 600 plate appearances. This is a franchise that has struggled to find solid fill-in first basemen, so it’s hard to imagine the Guardians would be able to find an an adequate replacement if Naylor walks after 2026. And this is hardly a blockbuster deal; it’s similar to what Kyle Schwarber got from the Phillies coming off the best season of his career (2.7 WAR in 2021). Naylor’s not a superstar, but he’s in his prime years. That should be enough incentive for the Guards to pay for him to stick around, and so long as the deal is fair, the fact that Josh’s younger brother Bo also plays for Cleveland might make him more inclined to stay.

Jackson Merrill, San Diego Padres (Seven years, $95 million)

Jackson Merrill has one of the odder long-term projections according to ZiPS, which expects him to have a long, stable plateau rather than a period of significant growth followed by a steady decline (at least in the years covered below). But ZiPS is increasingly coming around to his reputation as a good bad-ball hitter, and his batting average projections have improved considerably since the winter. Merrill looks to be a solid player, and he’s one the Padres may need toward the end of their long-term deals with infielders Xander Bogaerts, Manny Machado, and Jake Cronenworth.

Pete Alonso, New York Mets (No offer)

Pete Alonso is rightfully a very popular player in New York, and I’ve always had a soft spot for the Polar Bear, both because homers are fun and because ZiPS was in on him very early when he was a prospect (everyone likes looking smart). And with his free agency imminent, this would be a suitable time to extend him on a long-term contract. The problem is, the more I look at the situation, the harder it is for me to think of a scenario in which he and the Mets could come to terms on a deal unless one party was willing to come out of the negotiation feeling very unhappy. ZiPS suggests a four-year, $70 million contract, and I can’t imagine Alonso feeling anything but insulted by an offer like that. I think given Alonso’s place in the organization and the hiccups in the development of Brett Baty and Mark Vientos, the Mets would be willing to pay Alonso more than a projection suggests, but I can’t see them offering him Freddie Freeman or Matt Olson money, either. Because the basic fact is that Freeman and Olson are more well-rounded players than Alonso, who has one amazing dimension. Just to illustrate, below Alonso I’ve included the projections for Freeman and Olson over the next six years.

Alonso projects to be slightly worse than them in the short term and then to be similar in the later years, though that’s likely because he is younger than them. Plus, by the end of 2024, the other players’ contracts already will have covered two additional prime seasons from Olson and three from Freeman. I don’t think any pending free agent has a bigger gulf than Alonso does between the perceived value of his past and the expected value of his future, and as such, this has contract boondoggle written all over it, as big as it was with Kris Bryant a couple years ago. I don’t envy the Mets for the decision they have to make with Alonso, because letting him go, trading him, and keeping him all feel like poor options.

If the Houston Astros were to sing a jovial song consisting of a list of their favorite things, April 2024 would definitely not make the cut. At 7-16, the Astros are looking up at everyone in the AL West, even the Oakland Athletics, a franchise that barely exists as a going concern in 2024. Cristian Javier’s injury adds another name to the injured list, and though he isn’t expected to miss a lot of time, his absence further depletes a struggling team that needs all the help it can get to climb its way out of a hole that keeps getting deeper.

How bad is a 7-16 start? Well, only two teams have ever overcome such a rough season-opening stretch to later make the postseason.

Only the 1914 Boston Braves had a worse start, going 4-18-1 over their first 23 games. It may be tempting to use that tale as inspiration, but the fact that their turnaround was enough to earn them the appellation of “Miracle” Braves reflects the improbability of the feat. Excluding the Astros, 103 teams have started a season with precisely seven wins in 23 games; the average finish for these teams was, pro-rated to 162 games, a 67-95 record.

But all is not doom and gloom. Almost 20% of these teams played at least .500 ball the rest of the way (18 of 103), and this looks a bit worse because of the simple fact that a lot more lousy teams start off 7-16 than good ones do. It doesn’t necessarily follow, then, that a team we believed to be a quality one will have a fate as bleak as what happened with the clubs we thought would be much worse. How often do teams that we expect to be good start off this slow? I’ve never gone back and re-projected whole leagues before I started running team projections in 2005 – though it is on my voluminous to-do list – but I do have nearly two decades of projections to look at. So, I took every team that stood at single-digit wins after 23 games and looked at how they were projected entering the season.

After chopping off the teams from 2020, since 23 games was a massive chunk of that season, we end up with 117 teams, including the Astros on seven occasions (though only one of those Houston clubs finished above .500). Seven of those 117 teams did go on to win 90 games, and not surprisingly, it was largely made up of teams projected to be good; those seven teams had an average preseason projection of 86.3 wins.

Let’s pivot back to the 103 teams that began the season with exactly seven wins in their first 23 games so we can figure out how they did after their wretched starts and compare their actual finishes to their projected ones. Collectively, these 103 teams had a .458 winning percentage after their 23-game starts, compared to their overall .469 winning percentage projected before the season. I also did a quick-and-dirty method to get every team’s in-season projection after game no. 23, and the projected winning percentage for the rest of the year was .460, barely above the .458 actual mark. I tested only ZiPS, but I expect other similarly calculated projection systems to have similar results.

So, what do the projections say about the Astros right now? I ran a full simulation after Sunday’s games were complete.

The Astros are hardly dead in the water and are helped out by the fact that the best teams in the AL West so far are still hanging right around .500. But it’s been enough to slash five projected wins from Houston’s preseason total and drop its playoff probability by about a third. In other words, after this awful start, the Astros are more likely than not to miss the postseason, according to ZiPS. The situations in which they make the playoffs are now largely upside scenarios rather than average ones. And that means the calendar is now an enemy.

How long can they afford to keep winning three out of every 10 games before their playoff hopes evaporate? To estimate this, I’ve continued giving the Astros a roster strength of .300 (projected winning percentage vs. a league-average team in a neutral park) and re-checking every five games.

At the rate the Astros are playing, they’re basically toast in five more weeks. Even playing .500 ball over this span carves off another meaty slice of their playoff probabilities (15.6% division, 31.6% postseason). Any shot they have at turning things around has to involve getting better pitching. The Astros are second in the league in on-base percentage and slugging percentage, and of the nine players with at least 50 plate appearances, seven of them have a wRC+ above 100, with three of them above 150. Alex Bregman (76 wRC+) will almost certainly get better, but I’m less confident about José Abreu, whose horrifying start (-32 wRC+) is even more abysmal than last year’s putrid April (45 wRC+).

Meanwhile, Astros starting pitchers have the fourth-worst strikeout rate (18.8%) and the second-worst walk rate (11.3%) in baseball. To get better pitching quickly is going to be a challenge due to injuries. As noted briefly above, Javier is going to miss at least a couple of starts. And while Framber Valdez is nearing a return, José Urquidy isn’t fully throwing from a mound yet, and Luis Garcia and Lance McCullers Jr. are months away. Justin Verlander’s return isn’t enough to flip the script instantly. That leaves Houston in an awkward situation in which it needs pitching before the deadline, but perhaps not as much afterwards. I usually counsel teams not to panic, but given the urgency of this situation, I think the Astros need to be aggressive at identifying and acquiring pitchers. The Marlins may not be keen on giving up Edward Cabrera given his low salary, but the Astros should at least have the conversation about a trade for him.

Houston remains an excellent team, but starting 7-16 means that the clock is ticking very loudly. And if the Astros just stand pat, by the All-Star break they might find themselves turning their attention toward 2025.

The Astros have dominated the American League West in recent years, winning three straight division titles and six out of the past seven, and getting at least as far as the American League Championship in each of those years. Their quest to extend that run is off to a rocky start, however. Despite taking two out of three from the Rangers this weekend in Houston, they own the league’s second-worst record thus far at 6-11, ahead of only the White Sox (2-13).

Even with the series win over the Rangers — whom they’ve now beaten in four out of seven games while going 2-8 against their other opponents — the Astros are off to their worst start since 2016, when they went 5-12. Notably, that season was the last one in which they missed the playoffs. Their 4-11 record through Friday was their worst through 15 games since 2013, the year they lost a franchise-record 111 games. That said, this is their fifth straight season below .500 at this juncture:

Read the rest of this entry »

I had a few notes on topical prospects without a big piece to put them in, so I’m including them here in an appetizer-sampler article.

How Is Jackson Merrill Taking to Center Field?

Well, let’s observe. Here’s every fly ball hit Merrill’s way in April, minus the mind-numbingly routine plays and liners he had no chance to catch:

Read the rest of this entry »

He just ran right into it.
The ball was coming. He chopped his steps to time it up.
And then he just ran right into it anyway
Like a child so focused on when to jump into a game of Double Dutch
That they forget the part where they have to actually jump.
It hit him in the shin, in both shins, bounced off toward the photographers’ well
And the inning was just over.

He’s going to have a bump for a while.
And a baseball right to the shinbone really hurts, even a weakly hit one
That ends the inning and makes everyone wonder what the hell you were thinking.
It sticks around forever and hurts far longer than it ought to.
Those high sanitary socks are no protection at all. They’re nearly nothing.
I remember peeling off my uniform after a particularly sunny game
And finding sunburns in a tiny checkerboard pattern on my calf.

If you didn’t know there were two outs, you’d think
It was a brilliant piece of baserunning.
Bottom six, Jose Altuve leading off second. Runners on first and second.
Bregman chops one to third and Altuve takes a bruise on the shin like a hero
Rather than allow the Blue Jays to turn a double play.
But there are two outs. Jose Altuve is positively — I don’t know what.
I got interrupted as I was writing that line and now I have no idea what
I was going to say that Jose Altuve positively was.

It didn’t actually cost the team very much. If the ball doesn’t hit him,
Then Clement scoops it up for a rushed but easy force out.
The inning’s over either way. Why not run some very literal interference?
Let it slip between your legs and maybe Ernie will do the same.

It’s just that he looked for all the world like he was planning something big,
The way he slowed down to get the timing right,
Spread his arms for balance, kicked his heels up as he ran:
Like he was going to leap dramatically over the bouncing ball;
Like he was going to tumble around it in a diving summersault
That somehow ended up with him hugging the bag safely;
Like he was going to convince the ball to skip between his ankles;
Like he was going to pirouette with such dazzling beauty as it whispered by
That the infielders would be too moved to pay it any mind whatsoever.
And then he just ran into it.

“That is amazing,” says Buck Martinez. “A player of his stature
Somehow lost sight of the baseball.” And, well, that’s pretty funny.
When he gets picked off third two innings later,
Killing his second two-on, two-out situation of the night,
It’s less forgivable, especially for a giant of his tiny stature,
But it’s also much easier to understand.

In the sixth inning, it’s unclear what exactly he’s trying to do,
And that’s why my first thought is to crank up the poetry machine
Where there’s no limit to what can be true at the same time.
Real events can be caused by endless permutations of factors
But those inputs always have to add up to a hundred percent,
Whereas on the page any possibility you raise can be
Equally valid: a hundred hundred-percent-true explanations.

Okay, that’s not true. My first thought is that he looks like Raccoon Mario
From Super Mario Bros. 3, sprinting with his hands out, ready to fly.
I just wish I knew for sure whether his plan failed
Or whether he never actually tried it out in the first place,
Whether all that preamble was ever post-ambled at all.

I was sick the entire month of March. I’m still coughing constantly at times,
Constantly clearing my throat although I have nothing to say.
A few nights ago I made a note to look up the mechanics of throat clearing,
the two-part how of the inhaled ah- and the exhaled -hem.
I tried to look it up, but I couldn’t find anything.

Spencer Arrighetti had just thrown a pair of impressive innings when I talked to him following a spring training start in Lakeland, Florida at the end of February. I admittedly didn’t know a ton about the 24-year-old at the time. I was aware that the Houston Astros had named him their 2023 Minor League Pitcher of the Year, and that he’d been taken in the sixth round of the 2021 draft out of the University of Louisiana at Lafayette, but that was mostly it. The only other thing I knew about Arrighetti — this from my perch in the press box — is that he throws a sweeper.

What I learned about the 6-foot-1, 205-pound righty from our postgame conversation is that he is anything but old school with how he approaches his craft. Analytics is Arrighetti’s second language, and when it comes to talking pitching, they are pretty much his first language. Now on the doorstep of the big leagues — he tossed 4 1/3 scoreless innings with the Triple-A Sugar Land Space Cowboys this past Friday — Arrighetti is a bona fide pitching nerd.

———

David Laurila: Are you into pitching analytics?

Spencer Arrighetti: “Absolutely. I was taught the data by the Astros, and they obviously know their stuff really well. I love the model that we have. I’ve definitely fallen in love with that aspect, so while the game itself is still more important, I fully acknowledge that we have the ability to train analytically now. We can use data to get better.”

Laurila: What have you learned about yourself since coming to pro ball?

Arrighetti: “I’d summarize it by saying that vertical approach angle is kind of indicative of how a pitch will perform. Fastballs are especially vertical-approach-angle dependent on where you should throw them. I’ve learned about that. I’ve also made an effort to improve vertical approach on my fastball, as well as improve spin axis and spin rates on my other pitches.

“There is also the usage data. I’ve found a really good way to utilize my pitch mix efficiently and effectively. Obviously, we’re always trying to fine tune that — the more you climb the ladder, the more it matters — and at this stage it’s especially important for me to have a concept of what’s going to be good against big league hitters.”

Laurila: Can a pitcher meaningfully improve approach angle, or is more a matter of optimizing what you have?

Arrighetti: “It’s a nice mix of both. You get special athletes who do special things, and there are certain things about a guy you won’t want to change, like his delivery. At the same time, you can absolutely chase it. I think I had a pretty decent vertical approach in college, and after being made aware of it, I made more of an effort to get behind and under the ball.

“We look at hop, and it matters a lot, but I don’t have good hop. My four-seam performs like it has hop, but it actually doesn’t have it. I throw it from… I like to call it ‘throwing it from the basement’ as opposed to throwing from above your head. That’s where you find the vertical approach that is more down to up. So, I think that you can make an effort to refine it. Obviously, you’re not going to take a guy that throws 100 [mph] with a steep vertical approach and tell him, ‘Hey, let’s try to flatten it out a little bit.’ You’re going to tell him, ‘Hey, throw 100. You’re fine.”

Laurila: Hand positioning at release plays into what you’re looking to do…

Arrighetti: “Absolutely. Edgertronic is pretty popular within the data room. You can see exactly where the ball is coming out of your hand, which gives you an idea of the timing of it. You adjust your wrist position based on that; you find that point on the ball where you want to be letting it go.”

Laurila: Have you altered any of your grips as a result?

Arrighetti: “I don’t throw a single pitch the same way that I threw it in college; I actually don’t throw many pitches the same way that I threw them in Low-A. We’ve been really good about finding grips and cues that complement my arm and the way I want to throw the ball. Because of that, I’ve been able to develop an arsenal that I’m really confident in. So yeah, I’ve made a lot of drastic changes — even this offseason. I made a big adjustment with my changeup grip. Grips are great until they’re not, and cues are also great until they’re not. When it’s time to adjust, you adjust. Sometimes the adjustment is big, and that’s OK.”

Laurila: Are any of your grips unique?

Arrighetti: “I would say that they are iterations of other pitches that guys throw really well. In general, the more that analytics have come along, the more we have a good idea of which grip will do what to the ball, and from what slot, horizontal approach, and vertical approach. So, not necessarily unique, but tailored to me.”

Laurila: Do you chase certain movement profiles?

Arrighetti: “Absolutely. I think everybody does.”

Laurila: Some guys claim they don’t…

Arrighetti: “The guys that claim they don’t are most likely guys who don’t love the data. Which is fine. There are big crowds of both. There are guys who think it has no place, and there are guys who think it rules everything. For the most part, I think guys generally fall somewhere in the middle. Personally, I’m probably right in the middle, even with my reverence for the work done in research and development.

“Data is a great tool if you’re open to using it. For the guys that don’t need it, that’s awesome. If you naturally have great shapes, that’s awesome. But I’ve found it very useful to use TrackMan and Edgertronic to fine tune the pitches I’m throwing. Everybody wants more hop on their fastball. Everybody wants more sweep on their sweeper. Everybody wants to throw really nasty stuff. So yeah, I would say I’ve been chasing movement profiles for a little while.”

Laurila: You threw some good sweepers today. Is that your best pitch?

Arrighetti: “I would say it’s my most confident pitch with a right-handed hitter in the box. And there is more to it than how much it moves. The point in space where the ball starts to move matters, as does having the ability to disguise your pitches. But while those things are important, for me, when it’s bigger it’s better. I typically look mostly at the actual amount of movement. Velocity as well, because I’m pretty good at spinning the ball. When I throw at a high spin rate, at high velo, I’m going to get big movement. That’s usually what I’m looking for.”

Laurila: What are the metrics on your sweeper?

Arrighetti: ““I get anywhere from 16 to 26 inches of sweep. I’ve actually gotten reps at 28, and while TrackMan is a little faulty sometimes with its setup, I like to believe that I’m capable of making it move that much. Today it was probably around 18 to 20. You also have to be able to adjust your lines with how much it’s moving. If I’m trying to throw it at a righty’s hip, I want 16, 18, 20. If I’m trying to throw it behind them, bigger than that. It will be closer to 78-79 [mph] when it’s big, and usually 80-82 when it’s smaller.”

Laurila: How do you go about adding or subtracting movement?

Arrighetti: “It’s very intent and leverage-based for me. If I find good leverage with the middle finger, which to me is… I don’t know if you’ve watched Matt Brash throw his, but he’s got one of the best sweepers in baseball. He tries to leverage the ball in his hand with a slight bias towards the side. I’ve found that doing that has helped me a lot. If I can find a seam, have that leverage, and feel the leverage at release, it’s going to be really good.”

Laurila: Do you feel that you comp to Brash?

Arrighetti: “No. If I were to comp myself on that pitch, I’m probably closer to Joe Ryan’s. In terms of sweepers that I love to watch and would like to model mine after, a guy in our org who does really great is Cristian Javier. His is the invisiball sometimes. It’s moving 20 inches with a little bit of induced vertical break at about 80 [mph].”

Laurila: How has your repertoire (four-seamer, sweeper, cutter, curveball, changeup) evolved since you signed?

Arrighetti: “I threw a pretty average four-seam, a really slow loopy curveball, a pretty fringe changeup, and a rifle slider. Really, the only one that’s similar now would be the rifle-spin pitch I throw, which I like to call a cutter.

“My changeup grip has probably changed the most. When I was in college it was a pretty standard circle that didn’t really complement the way I throw. I’m not very good at pronating, so I’ve shifted to more of a low-spin split changeup. I’ve seen a lot of progress with that, because I can keep the supinated wrist and pull through the ball a little bit harder from the top. I don’t really have to worry about turning it over much.”

Laurila: You mentioned spinning the ball well. Is that primarily with your breaking stuff?

Arrighetti: “I spin the fastball well, too. I’ve been up to 2,400 rpm, which is good post-sticky stuff crackdown. When guys were using stick, the really good ones were 2,800, 2,900, 3,000, which is unbelievable. I can spin a breaking ball 3,000, but I’ve never come close with a four-seam. My arm action is pretty whippy, which is usually good for spin rates.”

Laurila: Which of your breaking balls gets the most spin?

Arrighetti: “My curveball, which is more seam efficient than my sweeper. My sweeper is actually very not seam efficient. I’m trying to basically throw a two-seam the other way, if you will. Seam-shifted wake is a hot topic right now. It’s kind of hard to explain, but essentially, I don’t need spin efficiency or spin rate on the slider — but it helps it makes the ball appear white, which is useful.”

Laurila: Any final thoughts?

Arrighetti: “I’ve heard some guys throw around the term fake hop. That’s what we like to call induced vertical break hop. We kind of touched on this earlier. Looking at the TrackMan, my four-seam doesn’t have a lot of hop, but you have to look at the release height and the angle you’re throwing from. For a long time, I didn’t think my four-seam was anything special, and the Astros have made it really clear to me that it’s going to be a great weapon at the upper levels. That’s held true so far. Sometimes the data is a little tricky. You have to look at other numbers that maybe don’t jump off the page.”

No fooling: April 1 was a day for no-hit bids. On Monday afternoon at Wrigley Field, in his major league debut, Shota Imanaga threw 5 2/3 innings of hitless ball against the Rockies before yielding a single to Charlie Blackmon. On Monday evening at Citi Field, in his first start for the Mets, Sean Manaea matched Imanaga with 5 2/3 hitless innings against the Tigers before finally surrendering a single to Andy Ibáñez. (The Mets still managed to lose in extra innings.) And finally, on Monday night at Minute Maid Park, Ronel Blanco went the distance for the Astros against the Blue Jays, at one point retiring 26 hitters in a row. He capped a 10-0 rout by getting Vladimir Guerrero Jr., whom he’d previously struck out three times, to ground out to second base.

The win was the Astros’ first of the season after they opened with four straight losses at home against the Yankees. According to MLB.com’s Sarah Langs, manager Joe Espada, who took over from the retiring Dusty Baker, became the first skipper ever to notch his first major league win — or his first with a new team — with a no-hitter. This is the earliest no-hitter by calendar date, per Sportradar, surpassing Hideo Nomo’s April 4, 2001 no-no for the Red Sox against the Orioles. The first of last year’s four no-hitters, a perfect game by the Yankees’ Domingo Germán, wasn’t thrown until June 28.

If you haven’t heard of Blanco, you’re forgiven. The 30-year-old Dominican-born righty entered the game with just 58 1/3 major league innings under his belt, and until last year, he hadn’t made more than two starts in a season since 2017, his second in pro ball. He’s a late bloomer who was never considered much of a prospect; he did place 30th on our Astros Top Prospects list last year as a 35+ FV reliever, with Eric Longehagen and Tess Taruskin describing him as an “up/down relief piece” whose 94-97 mph fastball “plays below its velocity.” According a 2022 profile at The Athletic by Jake Kaplan, Blanco is a former position player who didn’t begin pitching until he was 18. He signed for a $5,000 bonus in 2016, when he was 22, after trying out for at least four other teams. Before getting signed, he practiced baseball in the mornings and washed cars in the afternoons in his hometown of Santiago in order to support himself and his mother. Astros scout Francis Mojica spotted him throwing 94 mph while scouting Julio Rodríguez, who had the same trainer. Read the rest of this entry »

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about the latest on Gerrit Cole’s elbow and how his uncertain status might affect free agents Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery, then preview the 2024 Houston Astros (23:42) with The Athletic’s Chandler Rome, and the 2024 Oakland (for now?) Athletics (1:12:15) with The Athletic’s Melissa Lockard.

Audio intro: Ian Phillips, “Effectively Wild Theme”
Audio interstitial 1: Justin Peters, “Effectively Wild Theme”
Audio interstitial 2: Dave Armstrong and Mike Murray, “Effectively Wild Theme”
Audio outro: Josh Busman, “Effectively Wild Theme”

Link to Post report on Cole
Link to MLBTR on Cole
Link to MLBTR on Cease
Link to Astros offseason tracker
Link to Astros depth chart
Link to Dusty’s comments
Link to Ruby’s website
Link to BP on Framber
Link to Chandler on McCormick
Link to Chandler’s Athletic archive
Link to A’s offseason tracker
Link to A’s depth chart
Link to Gelof leaderboard
Link to Miller’s velo
Link to BA farm rankings
Link to BP farm rankings
Link to KLaw farm rankings
Link to A’s ballpark coverage
Link to Rooker EW episode
Link to Ballers EW episode
Link to Melissa’s Athletic archive
Link to ballpark meetup forms
Link to meetup organizer form

 Sponsor Us on Patreon
 Facebook Group
 Twitter Account
 EW Subreddit
 Effectively Wild Wiki
 iTunes Feed (Please rate and review us!)
 Get Our Merch!
 Email Us: podcast@fangraphs.com

Podcast (effectively-wild): Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS