2024 MLB Trade Deadline Winners and Losers
Another year, another frenetic trade deadline. This year’s bonanza was light on top talent relative to recent years, but it made up for that in volume. With tight races in both leagues and plenty of teams looking to shore up clear weaknesses, it was a seller’s market, particularly when it came to pitching. Now that the dust has settled, I’m here to hand out some judgment.
These are going to be inherently subjective, but that doesn’t mean I don’t put a little rigor into my system. I’m focusing on two things here when I look at individual teams. First, and more important: Did a team’s moves match up with its needs? This is easy to gauge, and since it’s the whole point of the deadline, it carries the most wait. Second: How’d teams do on the trades they made? I think this part is inherently more subjective – there’s no unified prospect ranking or database where we can see how traded players will do the rest of the season, and we’re working with less information than teams have. That doesn’t mean I’m not crediting teams for trades I like or docking them for moves I don’t, just that I’m weighting it slightly less than the first category. Let’s dive right in.
Winners
Teams Trading Pitchers
It was a good year to have an effective pitcher on the trade block. With plenty of teams looking for rotation and bullpen help and the biggest names mostly not getting moved, the teams who dealt effective pitching all did fairly well — with one notable exception that we’ll get to later. I initially thought Houston’s trade of Jake Bloss, Joey Loperfido, and Will Wagner for Yusei Kikuchi was an outlier of a haul. I still do, but the trades that came afterward make it look more like an overpay than a complete highway robbery, because good starters were in short supply, and demand was as high as ever.
The Tigers traded right-hander Jack Flaherty for less than Kikuchi, but still got an interesting Top 100 prospect back. The Marlins got two intriguing young hitters for Trevor Rogers, who desperately needed a change of scenery. The Reds got out fielder Joey Wiemer for Frankie Montas despite the latter’s rough year.
On the reliever side of things, Tanner Scott was the clear prize of the deadline, and the Padres did Padres things by offering a bunch of their non-elite prospects for him. They did the same for Jason Adam, even kicking in a high-upside recent draftee in Dylan Lesko. The Brewers coughed up two reasonable pitching prospects for Nick Mears. The Phillies did the same for Carlos Estévez.
This was a down year in terms of the number of impact pitchers available at the deadline, and the teams who had someone to send out generally did quite well. Or, they almost all did, at least, which leads me to the next item:
St. Louis Cardinals
Erick Fedde might be the best pitcher traded this deadline when you take his contract, which keeps him around through next year, into account. He’s a solid mid-rotation arm with upside for more if his sterling command keeps up, and he’s a credible playoff starter, albeit not an imposing one. That’s the kind of pitcher that a lot of teams were in the market for. Somehow, the Cardinals got him for a song.
Tommy Edman surely has more value to the Dodgers than to the Cardinals, but he hasn’t played all year, hasn’t looked healthy in his rehab assignment, and is more of a nice complementary player than an All-Star. He’s kind of the hitting version of Fedde, only he’s not producing right now. He’s even hitting free agency at the same time and on a similar contract. The Cardinals needed pitching more than they needed hitting. And oh by the way, they even got a one-year outfield boost in old friend Tommy Pham, who clobbered a pinch-hit grand slam last night in his first game back with St. Louis.
That would already put the Cards in the winners column – they needed pitching and got it, and they managed to do so without digging into their prospect war chest. That’s lucky, because that’s basically all they did at the deadline. Their other move, Dylan Carlson for Shawn Armstrong, doesn’t really move the needle for me, though I understand the intent: They needed a fresh arm for their overworked bullpen. But even with trade deadline returns climbing back from the prospect-hugging lows, the Cardinals managed to get one of the best arms available on the market without breaking the bank.
Pittsburgh Pirates
I’m not blown away by the deals the Pirates got in trading for hitters, but who cares? They needed an offensive jolt badly, and they acquired Bryan De La Cruz, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, and Nick Yorke to see if there’s any spark there. De La Cruz lets Connor Joe move into a platoon role that suits him better than an everyday starting role. Kiner-Falefa is a luxury utility defender who raises the floor considerably for a team playing some sketchy bats in its regular lineup. Yorke will probably get a shot in the majors with Nick Gonzales on the IL, and I’m a sucker for his well-rounded offensive skillset despite his lack of a natural defensive home.
These moves aren’t blockbusters, but there just weren’t a lot of blockbusters to be had this year. Adjusted for what was available, I thought the Pirates did a good job of threading the needle. They added some offensive help this year, and even played for the future a little bit with Yorke, without giving up anyone they’re likely to miss. I feel that teams who straddle present and future are often too cute by half, but the Pirates did a good job in my eyes.
New York Mets
The Mets didn’t do anything flashy, and in many years, I’d feel like what they did wasn’t enough. But I think they read this trade market quite well and understood where they could upgrade their team in a reasonable way without messing with the long-term prospect accumulation they started in earnest last year. The Mets got one of the top available hitters, a starter who plugs right into their rotation, and bullpen depth that I’d consider both safe and high impact.
They got all of that for a relative pittance. I think Phil Maton will be one of the best handful of relievers moved this deadline, and the Mets only paid cash. Jesse Winker was the best left-handed hitter traded at the deadline – I’d take Jazz Chisholm Jr. if I were accounting for team control and defense, but Winker has comfortably out-hit him this year. (The Yankees needed Chisholm more than the Mets did, and so far that trade has worked out; he already has four home runs with his new team.) Paul Blackburn is a perfectly serviceable starter.
This is a classic case where no individual trade is overwhelming but all of the moves add together nicely. Because the Mets went after a lot of players who were the second-most-attractive pieces on teams that were looking to make multiple deals, they didn’t break the bank for anyone. It was a great display of taking what the market gives you while still looking to meaningfully improve.
Losers
Chicago White Sox
What the heck was going on here? The Sox had a monopoly on top-flight talent available at the trade deadline. They had the best pitcher and hitter for this year in Garrett Crochet and Luis Robert Jr. Sure, Crochet was always going to be tricky to trade because of his innings limitations, but these were the players teams around the league coveted most. They also had Fedde, who combines performance and team control like few other pitchers available at the deadline. Somehow they didn’t trade their most attractive players and then got the least enticing return of any pitcher dealt when they traded Fedde.
I’m sure that there’s some kind of plan going on here, but I don’t get it. The White Sox got very little to improve their farm system even though they badly needed to do something. They traded Eloy Jiménez for absolutely nothing other than salary relief, and not even that much salary relief given that his contract contains only team options after this year. They dealt Michael Kopech and Tommy Pham as throw-ins in the Fedde trade.
I think we’ll look back at this deadline as a time when contending teams started to emerge from their prospect-biased shells a little bit and focused on improving however they could, even if sellers were asking for more than they were in recent years. Yet, somehow, the team with the most to offer and the bleakest short-term outlook didn’t capitalize on that new direction. It’s head-scratching for sure.
Tampa Bay Rays
This one is going to be controversial, but I feel like the Rays gave up a lot without getting Rays-level value in return. Randy Arozarena and Isaac Paredes have been key parts of the Rays’ offense for years now, and they’re both under team control for several more years. These are the kinds of players who historically fuel the Rays. They were both acquired for a relative pittance, they’ve both been phenomenally valuable, and generally speaking, the team waits for a relative high point in valuation before swapping current performers for future ones.
Maybe I’m just wrong on this, but I think that the Rays missed the mark on both of these trades. I don’t think they got full value for either of their hitters, and I also don’t think they’ve set themselves up to be competitive in 2025 without some other additions. I like the Jason Adam trade — going after the Padres’ remaining stockpile of prospects before A.J. Preller sent them all away was good business — but if these were the best offers for All-Star hitters who can help out long into the future, why trade them?
The Rays ethos isn’t really about trading for trading’s sake; it’s about getting players who are undervalued by the league and giving them a chance to shine. The trade packages that netted Arozarena and Paredes suggest that they’re both still undervalued, so what are we doing here? The Rays know that they can get excellent seasons out of those guys. If Christopher Morel pans out perfectly, he’s probably the next Isaac Paredes, and he’s not even under team control for much longer than Paredes. The Rays badly need offensive firepower, and instead they dealt away the few impact batters they had without getting a crazy return. I just don’t get it, even adjusting for the fact that they are the Rays.
Pitching-Needy Contenders
There was at least a chance that this deadline was going to see Tarik Skubal and Garrett Crochet on the move. They are both rotation-topping starters, and you’d feel comfortable sending them out there in the first game of a playoff series (give or take Crochet’s contractual demands, which I would make if I were in his position, for sure). But the Tigers and White Sox (and even the Giants with Blake Snell) ended up standing pat, which means that teams looking for aces were out of luck.
Flaherty, Kikuchi, Fedde, and Rogers are playoff starters, but even those guys have question marks. Only a few relievers feel like lockdown options. This deadline was just light on impact talent, and there were a lot of teams who could’ve badly used an ace starter or dominant closer. Teams with good offenses and pitching problems were frozen out this July.
Too Soon To Tell
Improving Contenders
The Astros and Padres made some aggressive trades, sending out top-of-market returns for the players they got back. The industry consensus is that both teams gave up too much for the necessary improvements they were making. I agree with that consensus. But I’m also realistic enough to know that I’m not an all-knowing arbiter of prospect talent, and none of the players going out are sure things. They’re mostly mid-round draft picks who have seen their value climb meaningfully in recent years or speculative pitchers who haven’t yet gotten results.
Meanwhile, the teams went out and got their targets to improve their rosters in the way they wanted. They did so despite the context of a very fallow trade deadline. I don’t think I would have done what either team did, but I don’t think either made obviously awful moves. They each went in the right direction, and the question is just how aggressive they had to be in doing so. I’ll take that over inaction despite a clear need for improvement any day.
The Mariners are in a slightly different boat, because I’m pretty sure their moves were all good. I’m just not sure whether they were enough. I was hoping for a slightly bigger swing on the offensive side after they got Arozarena, but it’s not like they missed out on a ton of good hitters who got traded. I wish they’d done more, but I like what they did do, so that gives them a similar grade.
Retools
The Marlins and Blue Jays did a decent amount of selling, and I liked what both teams got back. The Marlins went for quantity over quality, which makes sense given the shape of their system. They were extremely thin all the way down, and now they have a lot more interesting young players than they did a week ago. Honestly, they might belong in winners, but I already threw enough names in there and I think that some of their down-roster reliever trades left something on the table. Either way, I’m excited to see what the farm system looks like by next year.
The Blue Jays made a statement by keeping both Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette. They dealt largely from their stash of players who will hit free agency after this year, but they got great returns on the trades they did make. I’m not sure what to make of this middle option; it’ll depend on how they complement their roster this offseason. If this deadline was a prelude to signing one or both of their stars to extensions, I’ll think the Jays did right by not trading them. If they sit on their hands, they’ll regret their relative inaction this week. But either way, it’s too soon to tell how this will pan out.
I could probably keep going on both sides. I liked Washington’s approach to selling, and the Cubs’ approach to opportunistically adding. I liked the Brewers doing Brewer things, and thought the Rangers and Giants chose strange paths. But these are my high-level views of who did best and worst at the deadline, accounting both for position in the 2024 playoff picture and future considerations. I’m anxious to see how these views pan out – and also anxious to take a nice long bath and relax for a few days after this frenzy.
Ben is a writer at FanGraphs. He can be found on Bluesky @benclemens.
“I’m sure that there’s some kind of plan going on here.” The Sox have no plan, and they will never have one until Reinsdorf no longer owns the team.
You will never go broke by underestimating the White Sox front office.
Of course they have a plan. It’s, “make Jerry money.”
Then they’re failing. They’re worth $2 billion which is the lowest of any large market other than the A’s. They’re somewhere around the 15th most valuable MLB franchise. They’re worth less than half of the Bulls
Net worth isn’t the same as profit.
The additional sad part is JR has a heavy influence on the finances across all of MLB, constantly trying to reduce spending across the game, even though he owns a team in one of the majorist of major markets! Own a big-market team, but operate like a small-market owner. Two related examples: The reduction in minor league baseball teams, and the reduction in roster size across the minors. JR was a heavy proponent. That’s pushed many of the Auad-A pitchers out of the game who used to help AAA batters adjust to higher quality pitching before reaching the majors. There is a belief among talent evaluators that this move is one reason we’re seeing so many young hitters struggle.
The White Sox and MLB will be much better off once JR exits.
Jerry Reinsdorf and Bud Selig were the ringleaders of the collusion cases in the 80s. He’s caused all kinds of problems.
There’s too much focus on not enough spending when it comes to the White Sox (and frankly any underperforming MLB team’s) demise. They ran $190M payrolls in 2022 and 2023 and Zips had them winning the AL Central in 2022 by 10 games. The problem was that their top-30 prospect and trade-value list guys suddenly stunk or couldn’t play because of injuries: Anderson, Jimenez, Robert, Moncada, Madrigal, and Grandal. Maybe you can’t blame players for getting injured but they share some blame in the underperformance, no?
The biggest separator between continuously bad MLB teams and continuously good ones isn’t payroll, although that certainly helps. It’s selection and development of prospects. The White Sox haven’t been good at that for decades. (Even their recent 2020 – 2022 “hey-day” relied mostly on highly-ranked prospects acquired through trades.)
So while I think Reinsdorf deserves opprobrium, it’s not chiefly for spending. It’s for allowing an antiquated and under-performing operation to run for decades without interruption. Hire someone from innovative teams to help you figure out domestic and international amateur player scouting and development, Jerry!
“So while I think Reinsdorf deserves opprobrium, it’s not chiefly for spending. It’s for allowing an antiquated and under-performing operation to run for decades without interruption. Hire someone from innovative teams to help you figure out domestic and international amateur player scouting and development, Jerry!”
You contradict yourself here. This is primarily dependent on the amount of money put into the development system. You’re not going to get innovation or better scouting and development without spending significantly more money.
Fans use “spending” to mean payroll in my experience. Do you know what the White Sox are spending on scouting and development compared to industry benchmarks? I was simply thinking they replace everyone they currently have with counterparts from better run teams as a start. But I’m fine with them shifting spending from FA’S, which is a dumb and inefficient way to build a team, to spending more on scouting and development.
Point.
It’s not so much the amount of money spent but how and where it is spent.
Benintendi type contracts add to the costs but not much to the (good) results.
… “although that certainly helps.”
Top 5 team records since 2000:
Yankees (.580)
Dodgers (.566)
Cardinals (.553)
Braves (.545)
Red Sox (.545)
-big gap-
Giants (.520)
Yup, payroll spending certainly helps. A lot. Almost as if there is a pool of players that only franchises with inherently smaller revenue streams cannot acquire without severely risking future roster limitations.
These are teams that are historically best in scouting and development. Thanks for making my point.
Fans like you think that spending causes winning, when in fact it’s the opposite: scouting and development builds an 85-win team. These players get to Arb and finishing touches are brought in from Free Agency and then the payroll rises such that winning and spending coincide or even winning causes spending.
Since most of the last 25 years includes a time when spending on international free agents was unchecked, you may be giving undue credit to “scouting and development” when the Yankees, Dodgers, etc. routinely spent up to triple the amount of most teams on stockpiling Latin American talent. Not reflected in MLB payroll, sure, but big spending is big spending.
The larger point is that some franchises can*, some can’t*.
*while still guaranteeing annual profit (of course)
For the last 10 years, it’s Cleveland and Tampa that seemed to hoover up more in the Dominican Republic than other teams though it seems more distributed across the league now by looking at THE BOARD. Cleveland and Tampa are small market teams, as you know.
I agree that some teams can’t…compete on signing the superstars of the game. There are probably 16 teams (LAD, NYY, BOS, TEX, TOR, NYM, SDP, SFG, PHI, ATL, WAS, HOU, ANA, CHC, STL) that can afford to give out $200M+ contracts. And ironically, these big contracts are less risky than contracts in the $50M – $200M tier because these are the superstars on a HoF track. That’s why I think if a team can only afford the $50M – $200M tier, it’s better to design team-building around avoiding Free Agency as much as possible. IE, sign relievers from FA only, unless you can get other positions on 1-2 year deals.
The other 14 teams will have a difficult time winning a WS because they need their prospect pool to replace guys that get too expensive to keep and thus can’t trade them to add to the current team. This doesn’t prevent TBR, CLE, BAL, MIN and others from being good quite often.
Detroit has had multiple $200M guys in the last decade. They should be in the tier of teams that can spend.
Now that was under a prior owner. His son says they’ll spend if/when they’re good..& they did spend $140M on Javy Baez 2 years ago.
The Quad A pitcher idea is probably part of it but I think we’re really just now seeing the effect of the COVID year on young hitters hitting the majors.
Possibly, but the level of offense is waaaay up in the minors. If it was just the COVID year across the board, those guys should be hitting worse in AAA too. Unless we’re also seeing a COVID year effect among young pitchers who are still in the minors.
(On the other hand, I just checked out league stats for the International League and the league OPS shot up between 2018 and 2019 and then stayed there when the minors came back. Was that the rabbit ball? The major league OPS also spiked in 2019 and didn’t keep its gains.)
However! Szymborski just said in his chat that he hasn’t found an increasing talent gap between AAA and the majors, it’s more that the gap between offensive environments is really big! So who knows?
I think the ABS is a major factor here. Pitchers are having a lot of trouble with it and it has made the job too easy for hitters, so they can get in bad habits like waiting for balls and pitches in certain locations that don’t come in the majors.
The White Sox should be renamed to White Flags.
My theory is that the problem was sticking too closely to a plan. The plan was “get up the middle prospects who are relatively young for their level” and “a young major league player with lots of team control.” The fact that they walked away with Vargas (a quad-A player) and a couple of FV40+ types were less important than executing the plan.
To be fair (not that they deserve it), there is a plan. Unfortunately, the plan Jerry is on record talking about is to finish in second place a lot. Keeps fans engaged, but you don’t have to spend as much. Speaking of that, never spend money on any free agents anyone else is interested in, because the market is out of control to an octogenarian that yells at clouds about paying everyone too much. Noticing a theme?
Sell, Jerry!
Update: I intend no offense to octogenarians writ large. I’m sure there exists a long list of qualified 80-year-olds that could capably own the baseball team. Jerry just ain’t on it.
Lose 121 games ? That sounds like an achievable plan. If you are going to do something ……..
Where is Bill Veeck when you need him?
Eloy……
Jiménez……
The Sox are losers baby
And that’s why they trade him
Going into the deadline, one of the meta questions was “can Chris Getz hang as an MLB GM or is he completely overmatched?”.
And we definitely got an answer to that one.
pretty sure the Cease return was an early indicator of that.
I don’t know how much of a winner the Cardinals were. Yes, they did a great job of grabbing Fedde without raising payroll much (if at all), but it came at the significant cost of downgrading from Edman (who will finally be back from the IL soon) to Pham. Of secondary concern, it also means they have to keep running out Siani in the starting lineup for most games.
Then their second move was terrible, not because Carlson really has much value to them anymore, but because they flat out downgraded their bullpen with the return. They’d be better off continuing to use the AAA shuttle with the guys they already have.
Pham’s 159 wRC+ against LHP was sorely needed for the Cardinals, who with an 83 wRC+ are 28th in the league, ahead of only the Rockies and the no-bat Marlins, and tied with the White Sox. At least with Siani his defense makes up for a lot of how badly he hits. Better than the zero production from Edman to this point in the year, at least in the short term. My guess is they go big for Luis Robert in the offseason.
Armstrong looks really similar to the guy who ran a 1.38 ERA and 2.65 xERA last year. His stuff and location look almost the same across the board. If the Cards think they can get that version of him back, I don’t blame them for taking a chance.
I’m not seeing how Pham is better than Carlson. Carlson can play CF and is signed cheaply with control. Armstrong is a generic reliever.
Pham is a much better hitter his season than Carlson. It’s win now move.
Carlson just isn’t very good
Edman was a 5 win player 2 years ago. He’s an average hitter, an excellent baserunner, and at least an average defender at 6 positions. He has a lot more ability than Fedde.
Although it does seem incredibly likely that that was Edman’s absolute peak, and that even if he really bounces back he’s more like a 3war guy. It wouldn’t be shocking if Fedde outproduces Edman over the next 1.5 seasons
The Cardinals did great. They desperately needed another starter who was better than Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson. Losing Edman hurts but they have plenty of options for position players and a desperate need for starters.
IMO the Carlson trade is a loss but they gave up on Carlson a long time ago. One of the most inexplicable things–they went way, way out of their way to keep him out of center field. But he was hurt a lot anyway, so it probably won’t matter much.
Pirates could do really well platooning Hayes with IKR once they have their options figured out at 2B. Hayes is the absolute worst hitter against RHP in all of baseball with more than 185 PAs. Not worst 3B. Worst hitter by wRC+.
Wait, why downvote this? Dude has a 36 wRC+ against RHP and his typical 92-98th percentile fielding run value has dropped to 80th. He’s literally the worst hitter in all of MLB against the big side of the platoon.
What an amazing experiment switching my name from wokegraphs to fangraphsreaderbutwoke has been! So many more updoots now haha.
Wow you really owned the libs!
If it was a tiny window into how insecure and group-minded folks can be and how the internet promotes virtue signaling rather than engaging with ideas honestly it was a success 🙂
“People who present themselves as smug and insulting get treated as smug and insulting, news at 11”.
Womp womp this is FanGraphs, we talk about baseball here, go yap about the imaginary culture war somewhere else
Oh I don’t know. I’ve seen quite a few culture war comments on here by a lot of different members. Start with any article discussing Curt Schilling, for example.
Or just read any post by SeniorGato. He’ll let you know about every type of privilege and the patriarchy and also tell you how awful capitalism is.
SenorGato gets downvoted consistently when he does that. Absolutely no one is any more impressed with him when he pulls that than people who try to claim groupthink, because often he’s doing the same thing.
Every SenorGato post I see gets downvoted to oblivion so I don’t think that disproves my point
The Padres moves are being undervalued. The top end of their bullpen was already solid with Suarez, Estrada, Morejon, and Matsui. Now they go a legitimate 6 deep adding Adam and Scott with a decent 7th in Hoenig. They’ve now positioned themselves to turn games into 5 and 6 inning affairs where if you’re trailing them you’re in huge trouble. That plays big time in postseason short series. They are also an offense that can execute situational baseball and actually have quality at bats vs high end pitching (Arraez, Profar, Xander who looks rejuvenated post injury, Cronenworth, Solano). That also plays in the postseason vs an all or nothing slugging approach.
As for their SP, when entering starts rested King and Cease have been absolutely dominant. Waldron has generally provided quality innings. There may be starts where the knuckleball doesn’t dance and he’ll have issues but he’s a fine #4. Perez will at least provide dependable innings as a #5. It goes without saying that if one of Musgrove or Yu can return and pitch like a #3 it’d make all the difference in the world.
As for who they gave up, flags fly forever.
The franchise has to actually have a flag before they can say it flies forever.
Agreed.
I don’t think they have a chance in postseason without Darvish and Musgrove but I didn’t think Giants could win with a 1 man rotation so what do I know.
You need a flag before you can say “flags fly forever”
Additional Winners:
Additional Losers:
Surprises
Parades didn’t come very cheaply. One he has 3 years of arbitration and will out earn Morel (plus Morel still has another pre-arb year), then they also gave up Bigge who is fanning nearly 60% of his batters with an upper 90’s fastball. He’s a tad bit wild, but this is the Rays we’re talking about, that guys an all-star in 2 years. Johnson is a 6’6″ showing improved signs of control. And once again, this is the Rays… These guys will be power arms traded for more power arms in 2-3 years.
Especially for a team like the Cubs who have been pretty meh-bad for years now.
That deal from the Rays end was all about saving money because Paredes was a super two player. It’s nearly impossible to win a trade when it involves giving up 3.5 years of a 4-win player at standard arbitration rates.
And it wasn’t that much money.
Yet. It was going to become big (in terms for the Rays) money within a year or 2.
It was about shedding money you’re not wrong. But they did that and landed 2 MLB talents and possibly a 3rd.. . not many teams are able to trade even superstars for contributing players. And then we typically see the Rays turn these pitchers into big league studs (and then flip them again and repeat). I’m just saying the 2025 Rays are in a better spot with these 3 than the cubs are with Parades.
So Paredes is a consistent 4 WAR player now? All the talk before was that he can’t hit as well in basically any other park.
He is a consistent 4-win player for *them*. Probably more of a 2.5 win player for many other teams.
They traded him for half his value, because that’s what he is worth to the rest of the league. The logical thing to do was to keep him and trade someone else instead. But for some reason—probably due to escalating arbitration salaries—they decided he had to go now.
I think people get too carried away with how Paredes pulled fly balls translate to other parks. We are talking about maybe 3-5 fewer HRs a year and likely 1-3 of those turn into doubles. That will not cost him 1.5 WAR.
The question then, though, is what is a 4 win player that is getting expensive “worth” to a franchise with a limited payroll?
I think it’s also important to keep in mind that it was Tampa Bay that made Paredes valuable in the first place.
Lol they were literally the dregs of the Cubs prospects and enjoy 3 years of a DH that makes waaaay below league average contact. I mean did you even watch him play or check out his stats page before posting?
We shall see. I never came here and said Morel was a top prospect or any good even. But the Rays and how they work they see something other’s don’t and will turn into a stud. Kind of like Parades….. Look at his stats before TB. .215/.290/.302… Have you even looked at his stats page before posting? He was basically miles worse than Morel’s .228/.308.403… Have a good one.
Adam has multiple years of control while Scott is a FA at the end of this year. When evaluating Scott I’d ignore April. He clearly was looking for his arm slot but once he found it he’s been incredibly dominant.
K rate by month:
April 19.7
May 27.5
June 31.9
July 44.1 (that’s not a typo)
K-BB % by month:
April -1.6
May 15.0
June 21.3
July 31.6
I understand thinking that the Rays could’ve gotten more for Arozarena & Paredes, but I don’t think that means they lost the deadline. I think they saw that this team wasn’t good enough and that they needed to make room for the next wave of pre-arb players. And I get that people don’t like this philosophy, but it’s gotten them the 3rd most wins in baseball since 2008 & 5 straight playoff berths; which is pretty remarkable given their payroll constraints. Their whole operation only works if they can cycle out guys in arb for prospects who will help them in the future.
And because of this need to rely on inexpensive players, I think they did really well stockpiling further away prospects, and especially pitching prospects. Their farm system skews pretty heavily towards position players, so getting 4 potential rotation arms (Hopkins, Baumeister, Lesko, Johnson) was a huge win for them in my opinion.
If they didn’t get enough for their best trade chips it means they erred by not waiting till the offseason.
How do you know the value would be higher in the offseason?
Buccos did more than expected and gave up very little. Big time W
The Astros have been making moves (FA signings mostly) that are win now for a couple of seasons now, but long term will likely not be worth it in a context neutral fashion. The Montero and Abreu deals went bad earlier than I expected. I expect the Astros will lose the total surplus value on the Kikuchi trade by a lot, but get WAR when they want WAR the most.
I expect the Rays trades to work out for them; not because I like either of them, but because they just seem to make a lot moves that look dumb at the time but look good down the line.
Always enjoy your articles and really respect your knowledge and analysis. But shouldn’t “most wait” in your introduction be “most weight.” Wish I had a less pedantic comment!
Hay now, weight a minuet. Don’t go helping the arthur right things correctly
Royals trading for Erceg was never going to be a headline making deal but its going to make a real difference for KC. Their bullpen has cost them so many wins this year.
They have allowed 129 runs in the 7th inning or later. Only teams worse are Rockies, White Sox, Toronto and Texas. wOBA wise its even worse with only Colorado, White Sox and Toronto having a worse mark than the Royals .325 wOBA after the 6th inning.
Having a guy like Erceg is a huge upgrade.
When Erceg is on he is great. When he isn’t, he becomes a walk machine. The trade could really go either way for the Royals.
Chicago White Sox. Everything makes sense. For years the owners wanted to get out of Chicago (Damn those Cubs). With poor attendance and TV revenues over the next two years, by 2027 the team will be headed to Charlotte or Montreal and the White Sox value will double or even triple.
The value might double in Montreal but not Charlotte.
I have a feeling that Jon Morosi wont be getting any scoops from the Orioles FO any time soon.
Dude caught wind that the Tigers were “listening to offers” on Skubal (perfectly reasonable for them to do, also doesn’t indicate that they are willing to move him at all) and went to town. Being a guy who has a standing daily segment on MLB Network, he built it into a whole story line over 3 weeks about how it could actually happen. So a trade that probably peaked at like a 1% chance of happening ended up being the dominant story of the deadline leaving the Orioles with unrealistic expectations based off of basically a nothing rumor.
Obviously, the Orioles could have been more aggressive with starting pitching but I think it’s safe to say that Skubal was almost certainly not being traded. When every fan even somewhat tuned in to baseball media expects that the Orioles are going to make the biggest pitching acquisition of the past few years, just about any actually available pitcher is going to look underwhelming.
Wait, are you saying that Jon “Shohei Ohtani is on a plane to Toronto right now” Morosi made a story out of absolutely nothing?
I’m shocked. Shocked!
Lots of people in this comment section defending the Rays because “they’re the Rays.” I’m sorry, Ben is right. They probably left value on the table in the Arozarena deal and made what was effectively salary dumps for Eflin and Paredes.
I am all for smart, money-conscious management in small markets. Until there is a functional revenue sharing system you have to occasionally make hard choices. But this was them making decisions that don’t get them that many wins in the future because they decided they had to drop payroll.
Is 2 comments out of 50+ really “lots” of people?
And that’s me being generous, because one of those two acknowledges the returns for Paredes and Arozarena were light, but maybe not so light as to be considered a deadline loser.
Haven’t seen a single one of these smart, correct analyses pointing out where top prospect Junior Caminero was going to play. Just a lot of “They sold low and I don’t get it”
Red Sox won the deadline.
Because they are The Balls
Ain’t no other reason why!
How about the Rockies as losers…again. No trades. At all?!? Oh they traded Beeks. My bad!
Expectations were so low I think they flew under the radar.
They traded Nick Mears too, but yeah.
But did the Rockies have a pizza party yesterday? That’s the important question!
The Astros not getting 1B help was a huge L.
I wonder what Juan Yepez would have cost.
I would have looked at Brandon Lowe and moved him to 1B. Yandy obviously.
The Dodgers were the big winners of the deadline for me. Edman is a huge risk because he’s been hurt all year, but if he is healthy (a big if) he’s the solution to their shortstop problems. They also gave up almost nothing for him. And Flaherty was the best pitcher; they gave up a good prospect, but didn’t overpay. They’ve positioned themselves to challenge the Phillies as the best NL team, where before they looked like they were a step behind. Great use of resources.
I wouldn’t count of Edman to be both healthy and productive this year if I’m them. Wrist injuries are notoriously tricky to come back from and his return has been more problematic than most. For 2025 it makes sense though.
Part of that is that he also had an unrelated ankle injury that delayed his rehab and forced him to rehab that injury too.
Edman even as an average player in 2024 is worth more than Chris Taylor and Enrique Hernandez. Hopefully he’ll get totally healthy by 2025 and improve upon that.
Isn’t the White Sox thinking pretty obvious? They kept the two guys that they think will have roughly similar value this winter, and traded the rest.
Whether keeping their big chips is right or wrong is a good question and I don’t know where I land on it. With Crochet I absolutely agree — his value to contenders was unclear given his innings rampup and noise about a contract extension. Robert is less clear to me, he’s gotta stay healthy and that’s an iffy bet.
The real answer to that question depends on what offers they were looking at, which we don’t know, but the strategy is pretty straightforward and not a head-scratcher in the least.
Kind of what I was thinking – if you think you can get more during the offseason, you just wait. That said, it’s the White Sox so Crochet probably blows out his arm and Robert gets hurt like partway through the offseason and has to miss the 1st half of next year.
The White Sox should shut down Crochet right now.
Evil/Clever way to send a message about who’s running the show while decreasing his future arb earnings. Remind me never to piss you off, 96mnc. LOL
It just makes sense for both the org and the player. He’s already pitched more this year than he basically has ever in his life. He’s showing signs of fatigue as his command fell off about 3 starts ago and now his velo is going down too. He’s redlining the engine. There’s nothing but downside to him continuing to pitch.
Holding Crochet and Robert is very defensible. Their value is weird right now, because there are huge injury / overuse concerns about both of them. In the offseason, there should be fewer of those concerns (Robert will have been healthy for a while, Crochet’s innings limit will start over).
The holding on for Crochet and Robert is obvious. The trade of Fedde turning into the fiasco that it did for the pieces they sent out is where the “what were they thinking?” comes from. Because there almost had to be a better return out there.
I cant help but feel like Robert is one of those “toolsy” guys who just never really puts it all together/stays healthy. Someone will give the White Sox a boatload for him in the offseason but it wouldnt be me if I had the choice.
The Angels got a decent return for Estévez, but this really was a chance for them to restock their system by trading away pieces like Anderson, Rengifo, and Ward. Yet another disappointing stretch for the front office.
Those guys are controlled beyond 2024 though. Offseason might be a better time to trade Rengifo and Ward. I find it hard to believe Anderson will ever be worth more than he is now though.
I think the Jays won’t sign Bichette and should have at least explored trading him. I don’t know what you’d get for an injured and underachieving SS but they should have been willing to at least listen to offers.
He’s hurt and his value is in the tank. By next trade deadline he can hopefully rebuild his value.
^^This. This year he’s been alternately hurt or awful, currently the former. You don’t move him to get 15 cents on the dollar this year.
For those of us hoping that the White Sox break the record for most losses, the decision to keep Crochet and Robert is quite disappointing.
Well, Crochet probably won’t pitch that much. No reason to push him at all.
Is it normal to do a roundup piece like this and just completely skip over the club with the best record in MLB?
In fact, the best record in the NL and best two in the AL, all skipped?
The piece is about winners and losers.
The missing teams didn’t do enough to be either.
Cleveland at best gets an “incomplete” until the rehabbers prove their worth or lack thereof.
OK that’s fair.
Braves don’t fit into any category? Curious what the community here thinks of the one move Atlanta made: getting Soler. With respect, my reaction is that was the equivalent of the bare-minimum that AA could do. I don’t think this Braves roster necessarily merited a bigger set of moves with the way they have been trending. But they clearly needed more help than one bat-first player who shouldn’t be in the field but will forced to be because the Braves already have Ozuna. I think the Braves also would’ve benefitted from grabbing a more proven back of rotation starter to be a safety net.
I think the Braves are missing the postseason because of their lack of moves.
They’re still the first WC at the moment if I’m reading this right but it is looking more and more tenuous.
Yeah, they are first at the moment but I don’t think they’ll hold onto a spot period.
They have definitely fallen back to the pack, with the Mets currently only 2 games behind them (!). FanGraphs still has them at 88% to make the playoffs though, higher than any other NL non-division leader.
Their playoff odds were 98.6% back on 5/24. The teams chasing them went from a 1-outer with 1 card to come to a 5-outer with 1 card to come. It’s still a longshot, but it’s not nothing!
They’re in a weird situation. Their ace and reigning MVP are out for the year. Their now second starter Fried is out, Lopez may need to dial back on the amount of innings, and Albies, who I’d argue is the soul of that team, is out for a significant amount of time as well. On top of that Olson, Harris and Murphy’s bats have been anemic compared to last year, which at some point has to rebound for at least one of them.
It’s kind of funny how under reported it’s gone, but their pitching has quietly carried them through this slump. I think they were as interested in a starter as anyone but not at the cost, especially for a few months rental. This isn’t a must win year for them, and they shouldn’t act like it at the deadline.
Excellent coverage of the best team in baseball.
Guess I kind of expected Baltimore amongst the losers. Chicago is certainly the biggest loser, but the Os need a top reliever and a better starter than what they got. Plus they had more ammo than anyone. They didn’t overpay, but they also didn’t meet their needs.
The Giants should be catching way more heat than they are for their lack of deadline activity..again. Not that Gabe was the solution as manager but he wasn’t the problem last year. The problem was Farhan added NOTHING to an overachieving first half team then scapegoated the manager when they fell apart when everyone else improved at the deadline. If he didn’t want to buy in 2023 he should have sold. Then this year other than the salary dump of Soler and his replacement in Canha he once again did nothing to get better nor did he sell. That’s the worst outcome possible.
The Paredes trade depends entirely what you think of Christopher Morel. There are Cubs fans who are sure he’s going to be a star and I don’t think they’re alone.
The challenge is in his 3rd MLB season at best he’s been 20% above league average as a hitter, appears he’ll wind up in LF/RF/DH, and has regressed as a hitter this year. Some of the underlying metrics look good, the talent seems to be there, but I don’t see how he suddenly jumps to 140 RC+. If the Rays fix him or get him to play 2B, good for them.
Wait, is Wrigley the second best park for Paredes after Coors?
Nope. Minute Maid Park, Citizens’ Bank Park, Petco Park, Dodgers Stadium, Great American Ball Park, and Guaranteed Rate Field all outpace Wrigley handily. Low left field walls and/or short porches in all of those.
Nationals Park, Target Field, Yankee Stadium, and the Rogers Center are all also arguably better for him than Wrigley.
I was thinking of LF/RF pole distance to drop liners down the line.
No mention of the Orioles, who brought 9 players in and traded 10 away? Elias was quoted as saying he felt they got the best, controllable SP that was traded (Eflin) and also acquired a much needed LH SP who would step right into their rotation. Norby and Stowers might have been a bit of a high price to pay, but they weren’t likely to play significant roles in Baltimore any time soon. Who knew Westburg would be get injured, but Holliday is a nice “fall back”. Two controllable RPs, one from each side, deepen the BP. Cost wasn’t extravagant. You did mention Jimenez was basically given away, but no credit to the O’s FO for taking that swing?
Underrated deadline move… the Pirates sending prospect Patrick Reilly to the Orioles for Billy Cook. Cook has great OBP numbers and has some power but was blocked in Baltimore. He’ll get a chance in Pittsburgh. He could be nothing or he could be Brian Giles. Either way, the Pirates picking up Yorke and Cook severely improved their upper minor’s offensive depth with 2 guys who play multiple positions and could contribute this year.
I liked the Reilly-Cook move for both teams. Cook needs to be added to 40man this Dec, Reilly has 2 more seasons before he does. Pirates needed offense depth at AAA, O’s had surplus. O’s get an interesting arm for a guy who was never going to play for the big club and freed up a future 40man spot.
The real winner is Tommy Edman, who nearly was going to go to the white sox until the dodgers swooped in.
“Here’s your plane ticket, you’re headed to a 100-loss team…
…did I say 100-loss? I meant 100-win!”
(I know they’re not winning 100 this year but there will still be a 50-game difference between then at year-end)
Tigers are going to regret not trading Skubal. Pitchers get hurt all the time and Tigers are not close to competing. Their second highest WAR for hitters is Carson Kelly. This isn’t a team that’s a player or two away and Skubal would have gotten an absolute haul to allow the team to try to build for 2026 and beyond.
I’d love to know what was actually offered. With only contenders interested at the moment as long as he doesn’t get hurt they can deal him this offseason when more teams could be interested.
Definitely Agree…but doubt the return offered was any good so can’t blame them. I bet if the return was there he would’ve been traded. All these teams always offer these C’s propsects as centerpieces because theyre always over valued. Teams have caught onto this from what i’ve heard.
Doing a lookback, every single #1 C prospect ranked from 2013-2022 has been DFAd. Also to be fair to Kelly…Tigers have the 2nd best C’s in MLB this year based on FWar total with Rogers and Kelly.