Dodgers Land Their Impact Starter in Jack Flaherty

Last week, when the Dodgers designated lefty starter James Paxton for assignment, general manager Brandon Gomes spoke of the team targeting “an impact-type arm” ahead of the trade deadline. Gomes and president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman hit their target shortly before the 6 p.m. ET deadline on Tuesday, landing Tigers righty Jack Flaherty in exchange for a pair of prospects. Separately, the Dodgers also fortified their outfield depth by acquiring Kevin Kiermaier from the Blue Jays for lefty Ryan Yarbrough.

For all the talk about the top-of-the-line starters who could be moved before the deadline, the most discussed ones besides Flaherty — the Tigers’ Tarik Skubal, the Giants’ Blake Snell, and the White Sox’s Garrett Crochet — all stayed put, making the Dodgers’ addition of the 28-year-old Flaherty feel that much more impactful. To acquire the Los Angeles native — who was traded on deadline day for the second year in a row, after being dealt from the Cardinals to the Orioles last August 1 — the Dodgers parted with 21-year-old catcher Thayron Liranzo and 24-year-old shortstop Trey Sweeney.

After years of injuries capped by a subpar campaign that included the aforementioned change of address, Flaherty is in the midst of his best season in half a decade. Because he’s skipped a couple of turns due to injections of painkillers (not cortisone) to address recurrent lower back pain (one on June 10, the second on July 2) and then had Monday’s turn scratched in anticipation of his being dealt, his 106.2 innings is 1.1 short of the threshold to qualify for the ERA title, but his numbers are impressive. Among AL pitchers with at least 100 innings, he ranks seventh with a 2.95 ERA and sixth with a 3.11 FIP. Among all AL pitchers, he’s tied for 11th with 2.5 WAR, and among the pitchers traded this month, he’s second only to the more contact-oriented Erick Fedde (2.7). Flaherty’s numbers are a huge improvement from last year’s 4.96 ERA and 4.36 FIP in 144.1 innings. While putting up a 6.75 ERA post-trade, he was bumped from the Orioles’ rotation in mid-September and finished the season in the bullpen.

The major positive for Flaherty’s 2023 season was his health. His 27 starts were his most in a season since 2019; he totaled just 32 from 2020–22 due to the pandemic-shortened season, an oblique strain, and recurrent shoulder woes, which combined to send him to the 60-day injured list three times in that span. That better health — and some post-trade improvement of his fastball, albeit with his slider and curve regressing somewhat — helped him net a one-year, $14 million deal from the Tigers, with another $1 million possible via performance bonuses ($250,000 apiece for reaching 26 and 28 starts, $500,000 for reaching 30).

As I noted when I checked in on Flaherty about six weeks ago, the most surprising aspect of his performance is his career-high 32% strikeout rate, second only to Crochet among AL pitchers with 100 innings. It’s 2.1 percentage points ahead of his previous personal best, set in 2019, and 9.2 points ahead of last year’s mark, making it the majors’ biggest year-to-year jump:

In addition to improving his strikeout rate, Flaherty is generating a 43% groundball rate, his highest since his 2017 rookie campaign. As I’ve noted before, I’m a big fan of that combo; a few years ago, while writing about Luis Castillo, I tapped into our then-new “Plus Stats” — specifically our league-indexed strikeout and groundball rates — to produce something called KGB+, a junk stat that shines a light on pitchers who combine strikeouts and groundballs. That’s generally a good strategy for success, if not the only route there. Flaherty is currently seventh in the majors by that measure:

Flaherty’s revival owes plenty to the offseason work he did with Tigers pitching coach Chris Fetter and assistant pitching coach Robin Lund, who helped him clean up his mechanics, improving his ability to repeat his delivery by focusing on his posterior gluteal muscles and hamstrings instead of his quadriceps. As he told the Detroit Free Press’ Evan Petzold in May, “It’s allowed me to have a little bit better velo and stay behind the ball and be a little bit more true on my heater… and then be able to repeat my slider over and over and throw it a little bit harder. I can just feel the sharpness of it when it leaves my hand, which is something last year I didn’t really feel.”

Under the direction of his new coaches, Flaherty also adjusted the grip of his slider and ditched the cutter he threw 9.1% of the time last year in favor of more four-seamers and sliders. He’s also increased the average velocity of his four-seamer by 0.4 mph (from 93.1 to 93.5) and of his slider by 0.6 mph (from 84.2 to 84.8). He’s getting a bit more ride and more break on the fastball, but a bit less movement in both planes on the slider. Relative to last year, he’s lowered the wOBA against his fastball by 68 points and against his two breaking pitches by 111 points. He’s generating whiff rates of 38.9% via his slider and 44.0% with his knuckle curve, and he’s been much more effective against both lefties (a drop in wOBA from .372 to .264) and righties (from .337 to .279).

In coming to the Dodgers, Flaherty joins a rotation that’s in considerable flux. Within the past week, they’ve DFA’d and then traded Paxton to the Red Sox, and activated both Glasnow and Clayton Kershaw from the injured list; the former had missed 18 days due to lower back tightness, while the latter hadn’t pitched since undergoing offseason shoulder surgery. During that same week-long span, rookies Gavin Stone (the staff savior thanks to his 3.34 ERA and 3.82 FIP), Landon Knack, Justin Wrobleski, and River Ryan have all taken turns, but Knack has already been optioned, and he won’t be the last one. The hope is that at some point in mid-August or later, Yoshinobu Yamamoto can return from a rotator cuff strain that’s sidelined him since June 15, and that Bobby Miller and/or Walker Buehler, both of whom were optioned after post-injury struggles, can help as well. If you’re sensing that the Dodgers have depth for days, you’re right. Sorting out who will start for them in a postseason series is one of the main tasks ahead for manger Dave Roberts.

All of that pitching made Yarbrough expendable, but since being acquired from the Royals at least year’s deadline, the soft-tossing 32-year-old southpaw had served the Dodgers reasonably well in a multi-inning relief role; this year, he’s pitched to a 3.74 ERA and 5.15 FIP in 32 appearances totaling 67.1 innings. He’ll join a Blue Jays squad that has been stripped for parts in the past week. The team has traded just about everything in Toronto that wasn’t nailed down, including starter Yusei Kikuchi, relievers Yimi García, Nate Pearson, and Trevor Richards, catcher Danny Jansen, first baseman/DH Justin Turner, utilityman Isiah Kiner-Falefa, and Kiermaier.

A four-time Gold Glove winner (and 2015 Platinum Glove winner), Kiermaier is now 34 years old and heading into the home stretch of his career, as he announced last week that he would retire at season’s end. He remains an exceptional defender; in just 549.1 innings in center field, he’s accumulated 9 DRS (tied for fourth in the majors, one run behind his now-former teammate Daulton Varsho) and 8 FRV (tied for fifth). He’s obviously a better defender than the Dodgers’ incumbent center fielder, rookie Andy Pages (-8 DRS, -1.6 UZR, -1 FRV), but the 23-year-old Pages has hit a comparatively robust .244/.297/.378 (92 wRC+), while Kiermaier has not hit a lick. His strikeout rate has spiked to a career-high 30.4%, his xSLG has dropped to a Statcast-era low of .277, and his 53 wRC+ (.195/.236/.310) is the seventh lowest among players with at least 200 PA. He’ll have to battle for playing time in an outfield that could soon be further crowded by Tommy Edman, who was acquired from the Cardinals on Monday and who can also play center once he returns from a rehab assignment, though he’s more likely to be deployed in the middle infield.

As for the two prospects the Dodgers sent to the Tigers, Liranzo is a 50-FV prospect who ranked fifth on the Dodgers’ updated list and 73rd on our updated Top 100 at the time of the trade, while Sweeney is a 40-FV prospect who ranked 24th on the Dodgers list. Playing at High-A Great Lakes, where he’s hit .220/.344/.356 (106 wRC+), the switch-hitting Liranzo — a 2021 signing out of the Dominican Republic, with a $30,000 bonus — has split his time between catching (44 games), first base (24 games), and DH (six games). His future at catcher is murky, as he’s got a below-average arm. In Liranzo’s prospect capsule on The Board, Eric Longenhagen had this to say:

When he can actually get a throw to the bag off, his Patrick Bailey-style sidearm release works ok, but he so often botches or fumbles his exchange that he doesn’t give himself a chance to get the runner. Liranzo mostly utilizes a traditional crouch when receiving and is a below-average framer and ball-blocker. Both those skills are more tenable and within the range of big league viability than his arm, but at Liranzo’s size and age, it’s no guarantee they’ll stay that way.

Despite that modest slash line, Longenhagen is more sanguine about the 6-foot-3, 195-pound Liranzo’s bat:

There is huge switch-hitting power here — Liranzo hit 24 bombs in the Cal League, hit a ball 114 mph, and had a 48% hard-hit rate last year. He can hit for power from the left side even when he isn’t taking his best swing, and he’s dangerous from the right side even though he uses super conservative footwork, generating everything with a shift in his weight and the strength of his hands. Liranzo doesn’t have great feel for the barrel, which is typical for a young a switch-hitter, let alone one of atypical size. His 65% contact rate is below the threshold of any 2023 big league first baseman… so there’s substantial Quad-A risk here if Liranzo can’t catch.

As for Sweeney, he was drafted by the Yankees out of Eastern Illinois University in 2021, as the 20th overall pick, then dealt to the Dodgers in a roster crunch-driven trade that sent Jorbit Vivas and Victor González to New York. At Triple-A Oklahoma City, the 6-foot-3, 212-pound Sweeney has hit .255/.334/.427 with 13 homers and 16 steals; via Statcast, he’s produced a 90.6 mph average exit velocity with a 7.7% barrel rate and a 44.3% hard-hit rate, with so many balls on the ground (46% rate) that it all translates to just a .356 xSLG. Sweeney’s best tool is his 55-grade raw power, but his other tools grade out as 40s, with a potential 45 for his game power and 50 for his hit tool. In updated notes he provided me on Tuesday, here’s what Longenhagen wrote:

Sweeney looks fine at short. The Dodgers position him such that he barely ever has to make a play to his backhand, and he’s constantly moving from right to left toward first base when he throws, which he seems most comfortable with. He looks like a suitable fit at shortstop despite his size. On offense, Sweeney’s bat path causes his in-game power to play down. His front side is high through contact and he tends to cut down at the baseball. He’s going to produce game power beneath his raw barring some kind of swing change. That will limit his ceiling and likely prevent Sweeney from being considered a true everyday option at short, but he should be a second-division regular or good utility guy.

For a deadline short on impact moves, the Dodgers made what arguably stands as the biggest one, at least from a pitching standpoint. Healthy and effective, Flaherty is a massive upgrade on Paxton, and he might be the Dodgers’ second-best starter behind Glasnow heading into October unless Kershaw or Yamamoto can summon their pre-injury form. To get him, the team parted with two players who likely have major league futures, including one of the few Top-100 prospects traded this month in Liranzo. But the Dodgers’ system is particularly deep at catcher, with 50-FV prospect Dalton Rushing at Double-A Tulsa and 45-FV prospect Diego Cartaya at Oklahoma City, and neither of them is going to supplant Will Smith anytime soon. The Dodgers will hardly miss these guys, particularly if it all pays off with a championship.