This past weekend, the Toronto Blue Jays swept the Los Angeles Angels in a three-game series, dominating the Halos by a combined score of 36-10. The series represented a few important points: not only did the three wins vault the Jays over the New York Yankees for sole possession of first place in the AL East, but it also featured a matchup of the current favorites in the AL MVP race, Mike Trout and Josh Donaldson. While Trout went 3-10 during the series (all three hits coming in the series finale), Donaldson showed why he is beginning to be viewed as a possible contender for the league’s MVP, going 8 for 13 with a home run, four doubles and nine RBI.

Up until this season — even up until a month ago, in fact — the idea of Donaldson being a serious front-runner in an MVP race would have been viewed as very optimistic. He’s been in the conversation as one of the best overall position players in baseball since his breakout in 2013 (his 21.2 Wins Above Replacement since the start of the 2013 season is second only to Trout’s 25.2), but a strict comparison with Trout in the past probably would have been seen as a reach. That has little to do with Donaldson: Trout is the best player in baseball, and a normal year for Trout would be the best year of basically anyone else’s career.

Then this past offseason’s trade from Oakland to Toronto occurred, and Donaldson showed that the move to the Rogers Centre was most likely going to pay serious dividends for his statistics. Early on in this season, it became evident he might be tailoring his swing to pull more fly balls when he was playing at home, resulting in an astounding power increase that has showed no signs of slowing down in the ensuing months. His home/road splits are more pronounced than they ever have been, showing the influence of his home park’s friendliness to hitters — and his ability to exploit it:

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You’ve probably heard about the Troy Tulowitzki trade. The one that turned the Toronto Blue Jays’ already mighty offense into a juggernaut incapable of losing. The trade for David Price made some news, too. A team with a few mid-rotation starters but lacking an ace at the top and depth at the bottom was reinvigorated with the acquisition of one of the best pitchers in Major League Baseball, simultaneously providing that much-needed ace and allowing the rest of the rotation to fill out the remaining spots nicely. Those were the major moves — the earth-shattering, capture-the-attention-of-two-nations moves. The Blue Jays made other moves, too, though, and getting LaTroy Hawkins in the Tulowitzki trade, adding Mark Lowe, moving Aaron Sanchez to the bullpen, and officially naming Roberto Osuna as closer has strengthened what was once a weakness. For months, the Blue Jays struggled to close out games, but the bullpen has been lights out in the second half and looks ready to compete in October.

The last time I looked at the Blue Jays’ pitching issues, it was late June, the team was fourth in the division but had a solid 50/50 shot at making the playoffs. In the six intervening weeks, the Blue Jays have moved from wild-card hopeful to near playoff lock with more than a 90% chance of making the playoffs and 57% chance of winning the division. In late June, the rotation had at least one hole, and the bullpen was still struggling. Brett Cecil was experiencing difficulties as a closer, and the team had recorded just one more Shutdown (40) than Meltdown (39) on the year. As the first half drew to a close, the team had as many saves (14) as blown saves (14). Beginning with the change in closer six weeks ago, however, the Blue Jays have transformed their bullpen.

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As a counter to the idea that baseball is complicated and unpredictable: sometimes, baseball can seem ever so easy to understand. Not long ago, the Blue Jays traded for Troy Tulowitzki, perhaps or probably the very best shortstop. Shortly thereafter, the Jays also traded for David Price, easily one of the very best starting pitchers. Since Tulowitzki joined the lineup, the Jays have gone 11-1, and the one loss was a Tulowitzki day off. Over the weekend, the Jays pulled closer to the Yankees by sweeping them in their own stadium. Why wouldn’t that happen? Two superstars were added to what was already a pretty good club. Pretty good + superstars = even better! We’ve figured this game out.

The Jays have eaten up ground faster than anyone could’ve reasonably imagined. Sometimes there are concerns that adding pieces at the deadline can disrupt a clubhouse atmosphere, but all the lights are green in Toronto, and the probabilities that encouraged Alex Anthopoulos to act aggressively have only gotten significantly more positive, validating the moves that were made. The Jays are built to bludgeon, but they’ve also meaningfully improved the pitching staff, with everything clicking about perfectly at the moment. The question now needs to be asked: how good is this team? When a team’s on a winning streak, it’s almost impossible to imagine it losing. The Jays will lose, and they’ll do it several times. But is any other team positioned to lose less?

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The hands seem so important when it comes to hitters, it’s fair to maybe be fascinated with them. Where are they before the swing? How do they get to the ball? How important is the top hand with respect to the bottom hand? It’s easy to spot them, it’s easy to track them, it’s easy to talk about them.

But so much of what you do with your body determines what is happening with your hands. And so, if you talk to Josh Donaldson about hitting, he won’t have a ton to say about his hands. But his shoulders? His torso? He’ll have plenty to say about those things.

And so, even if I asked Donaldson about his hands, it’s what followed that was maybe more interesting.

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This breakdown starts with the Scott Kazmir deal on July 23, but there weren’t any trades from the 16th to the 23rd, so this covers the whole second half of the month, trade-wise, up until now. I count 25 total trades with prospects involved in that span that add together to have 58 prospects on the move. Check out the preseason Top 200 List for more details, but I’ve added the range that each Future Value (FV) group fell in last year’s Top 200 to give you an idea of where they will fall in this winter’s list. Also see the preseason team-specific lists to see where the lower-rated prospects may fall within their new organization.

40 FV is the lowest grade that shows up on these numbered team lists, with 35+ and 35 FV prospects mentioned in the “Others of Note” section, so I’ll give blurbs for the 40 FV or better prospects here. I’ve also linked to the post-trade prospect breakdown for the trades I was able to analyze individually, so click there for more information. Alternately, click on the player’s name to see his player page with all his prior articles listed if I didn’t write up his trade.

I opted to not numerically rank these players now, but I will once I’ve made the dozens and dozens of calls necessary this fall and winter to have that level of precision with this many players. Look for the individual team lists to start rolling out in the next month, with the 2016 Top 200 list coming in early 2016. Lastly, the players are not ranked within their tiers, so these aren’t clues for where they will fall on the Top 200.

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In yet another blockbuster deal, the Toronto Blue Jays have landed David Price from the Tigers in exchange for lefty hurlers Daniel Norris, Jairo Labourt and Matt Boyd. More pitching prospects on the move! Once again, I’ve applied my fancy computer math to these players to try to get some sense of these pitchers’ futures. If you’re looking for scouting reports on these players, check out Kiley’s write up of this trio. (Note: WAR figures denote WAR through age-28 season.)

Daniel Norris, 4.8 WAR

The centerpiece of the players headed to Detroit is easily Daniel Norris, who was widely considered to be one of the top-20 prospects in baseball heading into the year. Norris enjoyed a meteoric rise through the Blue Jays farm system in 2014. After 13 dominant starts at High-A, the Blue Jays bumped him up to Double-A for eight starts, and then Triple-A for four starts, before giving him a taste of the big leagues last September. Norris pitched to a 2.53 ERA and 2.57 FIP in the minors in 2014.

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In case you missed it, I’ve broken down the prospects in the Johnny Cueto (Reds to Royals) trade, Scott Kazmir (A’s to Astros) trade, Tyler Clippard (A’s to Mets) deal, the Troy Tulowitzki (Rockies to Blue Jays) trade and in one post yesterday covered the prospects in the deals of Ben Zobrist (A’s to Royals), Jonathan Papelbon (Phillies to Nationals), David DeJesus (Rays to Angels), and David Murphy (Indians to Angels) trades.  This morning I wrote up the deal sending Cole Hamels from the Phillies to the Rangers. Here’s the breakdown of the 3-for-1 David Price deal sending him to Toronto, and I bet I’ll write a few more of these.

Everyone is going to compare this trade to the Johnny Cueto deal since it’s one rental MLB ace for three minor-league lefties. I gave Finnegan, Reed and Lamb 55, 50 and 40 FV grades, respectively — with all of them pretty close to the big leagues — while the combination Norris, Labourt and Boyd received 55, 50 and 45+ FV grades, with Labourt the farthest away of the six (although not by much). I’d lean to the Price haul and I’d lean strongly that way if Norris can work out his delivery issues.

Daniel Norris, LHP, Detroit Tigers, FV: 55

Coming into this year, Norris was riding a wave of positive momentum after a non-descript start to his pro career, itself coming on the heels of a $2 million bonus in the second round in 2011 out of a Tennessee high school. The big question on Norris coming into pro ball was his delivery and those questions still exist now, even though they disappeared in the second half of 2014 when he steamrolled his way to the big leagues from A-Ball.

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Well, if you weren’t sure if the Blue Jays were really going for it or not, here’s your answer. A few days after acquiring Troy Tulowitzki, Toronto has shipped out pitching prospects Daniel Norris, Jairo Labourt, and Matt Boyd to rent the last few months of David Price’s 2015 season, giving them the #1 starter they’ve lacked all season, and a dramatic upgrade to a rotation that was mediocre at best, and extremely thin at the back-end. While Price can’t single-handedly solve all of their pitching issues, he’s still a dramatic upgrade that makes the team far more likely to advance deep into the playoffs than they were this morning.

Like with the Johnny Cueto deal, the price for a rental was pretty steep, costing the Jays a couple of guys who could pitch in the big leagues next year, plus have some long-term upside. In his pre-season Top 200, Kiley McDaniel put a 60 FV grade on Norris, ranking him the #17 overall prospect, two spots ahead of some guy named Noah Syndergaard. Norris struggled some this year, both in the majors and in Triple-A, but he’s the best prospect moved in any deadline trade so far.

And Labourt and Boyd aren’t just throw-ins. Labourt ranked 12th on the Blue Jays list, based on big velocity from a left-handed arm, and Boyd has dramatically improved his stock by seeing his stuff takes several steps forward this year. When asked about Boyd in a chat last month, Kiley said this:

Just talked to a scout that saw him a few weeks back. His velo jumped this year from 88-92 t94 to 91-94 t96 and the solid average off-speed is now above average, sometimes flashing better. He signed for 75K as a senior from Oregon State who had his velo bump as a senior, then again two years later. Basically unprecedented as far as I know. He’s at least a high 45 FV now, probably closer to 50 FV. When the scout was telling me what he saw, I made him repeat everything because it was so hard to believe.

A 55/60 FV guy in Norris, a 45/50 guy in Boyd, and a 45 guy in Labour puts this package even a step ahead of what the Royals paid to get Johnny Cueto, and significantly thins out the Blue Jays stockpile of young arms, already weakened by Monday’s deal for Tulowitzki. Unquestionably, the Jays have decided that their window to win is now, and they weren’t content to just see whether this group could run down a Wild Card spot without significant reinforcements.

Clearly, they’re going to need to do more than just reach the play-in game for this to be worth the cost. Price’s potential impact, though, makes this a deal worth doing, even if paying this cost for a rental is likely to be painful in the long-run.

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If you look at the movement charts on Drew Hutchison’s slider, it seems obvious: the Blue Jays’ righty starter had more drop late last year, when he was going well. This year, the pitch is harder and firmer, and he’s not going well. So he’s missing that slider he had, right?

Well, maybe not. We had Craig Edwards point out that Hutch might actually need his best fastball to succeed. And then we have the pitcher himself telling us that no, he hasn’t done anything to change his slider. “Every time I throw my slider I try to get good depth on it,” he told me before a game with the Athletics this week.

But the pitcher said this just moments before he admitted to using the slider differently. Which might actually have something to do with his struggles this year. Funny how that works.

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There’s no such thing as ideal circumstances under which to trade Troy Tulowitzki. The best-case scenario is that Tulowitzki is both healthy and performing well, and then, you’re still a front office trading one of the most talented players in baseball. And in Colorado, of course, Tulowitzki has been more than just a good player, having been the beloved face of the franchise. Do something like this, and it’s going to hurt, regardless. But it’s been increasingly clear that a separation would be necessary. That both parties needed to move on. The Rockies just couldn’t get Tulowitzki to stay at peak level. So they did what they did, doing about the best they could do at the time, and with Carlos Gonzalez probably following Tulowitzki out the door, this is a watershed. No longer will the Rockies be caught trying to build future success around present-day veterans.

Tulowitzki was no stranger to trade rumors. There was thought he could go a year ago, but after lighting the league on fire, he got injured. The injury questions hung over him during the offseason, making it tricky to find a match, and now that he’s been mostly healthy in 2015, his performance has been uncharacteristically mortal. So the injury questions morphed into performance questions, and the Rockies had to accept that. Your opinion of the trade is dependent on your level of Tulowitzki optimism. Given what he’s capable of being, you could argue the Rockies sold low. Alternatively, you could consider it meaningful that the Rockies had trouble getting the 30-year-old Tulowitzki both healthy and great.

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