Archive for Dodgers

Alex Wood’s Worrisome Trend

About a month ago, the notion of adding Yu Darvish seemed to be something of a luxury for the Dodgers. After all, not only had the Dodgers emerged as the best team in baseball, they had entered the season with the most pitching depth in the game.

But then Clayton Kershaw was sent to the DL, a place where Rich Hill, Scott Kazmir and Hyun-Jin Ryu have resided at times this season — and where they have been placed often throughout their careers. Read the rest of this entry »


Daily Prospect Notes: 8/7

Daily notes on prospects from lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen. Read previous installments here.

Ike Davis, LHP, Los Angeles NL (Profile)
Level: Rookie AZL   Age: 30   Org Rank: He’s 30   Top 100: It’s Ike Davis, guys.
Line: 1 IP, 3 K, 0 H, 0 BB

Notes
He’s not a prospect, but Davis was 88-92 last night and struck out the side in a perfect inning. Davis was a two-way player in college at Arizona State and last pitched as a pro in 2015, during which he made two appearances for Oakland. The Dodgers have frequently tried reclamation projects like this. They moved Stetson Allie — who looks like the pizza-eating stoner son of the cop from Stranger Things — back to the mound this year (he’s only thrown two innings but was up to 99 in the one that I saw) and tried Jordan Schafer as a pinch-running LOOGY. Eventually, one of these laboratory experiments will work out, if only for a brief while.

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Dodgers Pursue All-Time Win Record

Things have been looking up for Justin Turner and the Dodgers this season. (Photo: Arturo Pardavila III)

Back in 1906, the Chicago Cubs won 116 games, lost just 36, and put up a .763 win percentage equivalent to 124 wins in a 162-game schedule. Over the next 50 or so years, three other teams won at least 110 games, and another 11 posted at least 105 wins in a season. In 1961, Major League Baseball added eight more games to the schedule, giving us the 162-game schedule that we have today. Over the next 55 years, only two teams won more than 110 games, with more teams equaling greater parity, making it tougher to put up gaudy win totals. The New York Yankees put up a modern-day record 114 wins in 1998 on their way to a World Series title, but they were bested by the 2001 Seattle Mariners, who tied the all-time record by winning 116 games on their way to not winning the World Series. The Los Angeles Dodgers are perhaps the first team since with a shot at topping the 1906 Cubs and 2001 Mariners. The Dodgers have a shot at 117.

After all the moves at the trade deadline, the Dodgers’ record stood at 74-31, a .705 winning percentage, best in all of baseball by a healthy margin over the Houston Astros. If we assume the Dodgers would just win games at the same rate going forward, the team would end up with 114 wins. Here are a few different scenarios for LA going forward:

  • If they go roughly .500 (28-27), they will finish with 102 wins.
  • If they hit their rest-of season projections (34-23), they will finish with 108 wins, which would be tied for fifth since 1961, and also behind the 1927 Yankees and a few teams from more than 100 years ago.
  • If they continue at their current pace of wins (40-17), they will win 114 games, tied for third with the 1998 Yankees and behind only the 2001 Mariners and the 1906 Cubs.
  • If they play their final 57 games like their most recent 57 games (46-11), they will finish with 120 wins, four more than any other team.

While outplaying their projections by the seven games necessary to tie the record and eight games better to beat the record isn’t exactly likely, their record thus far, especially since mid-May indicates it is something the team is capable of. Losing Clayton Kershaw for any amount of time is certainly a blow, but picking up Yu Darvish and getting massive reinforcements for the bullpen certainly lessens that loss and could make the team even better. Read the rest of this entry »


The Dodgers Have a Hidden Strength

Those of us alive and aware today might end up being the last people on Earth to have seen the Dodgers lose a baseball game. Somehow, they’ve lost Clayton Kershaw and played even better, and they have a chance to set the all-time record for wins in a season. They’re playing so well it’s as if they don’t have a flaw, and while every team looks flawless during a winning streak, it’s obvious the Dodgers have officially become a juggernaut. They’ve been building toward this, and I don’t know when it’s going to stop.

Like any good dominant baseball team, the Dodgers have been excellent across the board. I’ll grant they look below-average by our baserunning metric, but the offense has been tremendous, and the defense has been strong. Turn to the pitching staff, and the Dodgers rank first by WAR. Look at things differently, and they still rank first by RA9-WAR. The Dodgers are more than just great — they could become an *all-time* great, which might feel more remarkable if the same couldn’t have just been said of the 2016 Cubs.

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Ranking the Prospects Traded During Deadline Season

Among the prospects traded in July, Eloy Jimenez stands out. (Photo: Arturo Pardavila III)

Below is a ranking of the prospects traded this month, tiered by our Future Value scale. A reminder that there’s lots of room for argument as to how these players line up, especially within the same FV tier. If you need further explanation about FV, bang it here and here. Full writeups of the prospects are linked next to their names. If the player didn’t receive an entire post, I’ve got a brief scouting report included below. Enjoy.
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Projecting Willie Calhoun, Brendon Davis and A.J. Alexy

The Dodgers traded for Yu Darvish. Below are the projections for the prospects the Rangers received in exchange for Darvish’s services. WAR figures account for the player’s first six major-league seasons. KATOH denotes the stats-only version of the projection system, while KATOH+ denotes the methodology that includes a player’s prospect rankings.

Willie Calhoun, 2B/LF/DH (Profile)

KATOH: 9.4 WAR (15th)

KATOH+: 8.9 WAR (24th)

Calhoun has hit a rock-solid .298/.357/.574 at Triple-A this season as a 22-year-old second baseman. His power numbers have been undoubtedly helped by the PCL and he doesn’t exactly look like a premium athlete. But still: Calhoun’s blend of contact and power makes him extremely exciting. His defense, however, is suspect. Clay Davenport’s metrics say his defense at second has improved this year, but going from unbelievably bad to merely really bad doesn’t do much to help Calhoun’s case. Calhoun is a prospect without a position for now, so a move to the American League makes a ton of sense. KATOH had Calhoun as the Dodgers’ second-best prospect, behind Alex Verdugo. Read the rest of this entry »


The Dodgers Did Not Steal Yu Darvish

You’ve seen the news. You’ve almost certainly even seen the return, and unless you’re a devoted follower of the Dodgers’ farm system, you may not have recognized any of the names. Brendon Davis and A.J. Alexy were low-level guys who weren’t on many radars, and even the known guy in the deal was a back-end Top 100 prospect, an unorthodox-shaped hitter without a position who has never been talked up as any kind of future star.

So it’s easy to look at this deal and call it a big win for the Dodgers. They just added one of the best pitchers in baseball to an already-dominant pitching staff. Breaking the all-time record for wins in a season now isn’t that far-fetched. They are going to enter the postseason as the clear team to beat, and all it cost them was a guy who didn’t really fit on their roster in an obvious way and two lottery tickets in A-ball.

None of that is wrong. The Dodgers did well here, picking up a difference maker without surrendering any of the guys they see as potential core pieces for them down the road. But baseball trades aren’t always zero-sum affairs, and just because this was a nice move for LA doesn’t mean the Rangers got taken advantage of here.

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Scouting Willie Calhoun and the Yu Darvish Return

Yu Darvish was traded to Los Angeles ahead of the deadline. In return, Texas got three good pieces, including one very entertaining one who will be ready to contribute to the big club soon.

Dodgers get
RHP Yu Darvish

Rangers get
DH Willie Calhoun
RHP A.J. Alexy
INF Brendon Davis

Read the rest of this entry »


The Best Reliever Traded at the Deadline

Evaluating relievers is difficult given their small sample of work in any given year and their volatility from year to year. But, given the fact that the most active sector of the trade deadline ended up being relievers, it makes sense to put them all in one place and wonder who got the best one. Might there be a surprising answer since the Padres ended up holding Brad Hand’s production on their roster?

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Dodgers Add Yu Darvish, Look Absurdly Good Now

At their current winning percentage, the Dodgers are on pace to win 114 games. They haven’t lost since Clayton Kershaw went on the DL. They already look like a monster. But now, there’s this.

Faced with the uncertainty of Kershaw’s health and a bunch of other starters with their own medical question marks, the Dodgers apparently decided that their best path forward was to add yet another frontline starter. If Kershaw comes back for the postseason, this may be the best four-man rotation we’ve seen a postseason team run out there since the mid-1990s Braves.

The postseason is still a crapshoot, and no amount of talent does anything to guarantee playoff success. To get to the World Series, the Dodgers will likely have to go through either the Nationals or Cubs, both of whom boast some pretty absurd talents themselves.

But man, this team was already loaded, and now they have another one of the best starting pitchers in baseball. As I wrote last week, Darvish isn’t risk-free himself, but the upside is obvious, and there are reasons for optimism along with the potential red flags.

In the midst of the worst month of the worst year of his career, his stuff and his expected outcomes look fine. But his strikeout rate is down, and the last time he got hit like this, he was just about to get shut down with an arm problem that eventually required surgery. If you want to take the optimistic scenario that he’s probably fine, this might be an opportunity to buy low, and there’s data to support doing just that. If you want to take the pessimistic view and think this is a guy with too many red flags to support giving up a significant return for a rental, there’s data to support that position as well.

What the Dodgers had to give up to rent Darvish for the postseason hasn’t yet been announced. But you have to think the Nationals and Cubs aren’t particularly happy about this piece of news. A behemoth just got even better. Good luck everyone.

Update: The Rangers are sending Willie Calhoun, A.J. Alexy, and Brandon Davis to the Rangers for rent-a-Darvish. Eric’s pre-season write-ups on the trio can be found below.

Drafted: 4th Round, 2015 from Yavapai JC (AZ)
Age 22 Height 5’9 Weight 177 Bat/Throw L/R
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
40/55 60/60 40/50 30/30 40/45 45/45

Relevant/Interesting Metrics
Recorded 27 homers and only 11.6% strikeout rate at Double-A Tulsa in 2016.

Scouting Report
Calhoun transferred from Arizona to Yavapai as sophomore, where he posted preposterous numbers. In 63 games, he hit 31 home runs, drew 38 walks and struck out just 13 times. Those numbers were undoubtedly aided by Prescott’s elevation, their home park’s size and the fact that Yavapai played their home games at a local high-school field when it rained. Despite questions about the validity of the on-paper production, Calhoun could clearly hit, exhibiting advanced bat control, timing and plus bat speed.

Amateur scouts had difficulty deciphering where Calhoun would ultimately fit on the defensive spectrum and an answer to that question still eludes pro evaluators. The Dodgers are hoping he can pass at second base but scouts outside the org aren’t optimistic. The lateral range and quickness fall quite short of the norm there. The arm is light for third base and Calhoun, who is already a 30 runner, arguably already lacks the foot speed to play an average outfield corner and is only going to get bigger than his current 5-foot-6, 200-plus-pound frame.

Regardless of whether or not Calhoun has a defensive home, he’s almost certainly going to hit. His fantastic season at Double-A Tulsa this year came in just his first full pro season after seeing JUCO pitching for most of last year. He has plus raw power and had one of the better batting-practice performances at the Futures Game in July. Scouts think Calhoun may have swing-and-miss issues in the big leagues, but these concerns are more a product of questions about Calhoun’s approach than issues with his bat-to-ball skills. He’s aggressive and will swing ill-advisedly at balls he can’t reasonably punish, but he grinds out at-bats and spoils good pitches until he gets one he can do something with. Also, his strikeout rates aren’t that high. I think he’s an above-average hitter at maturity and, while the approach is certainly a mild concern, the hit/power combination will probably be good enough to profile even if it’s just as a DH.

KATOH+ Projection for first six years: 5.8 WAR

A.J. Alexy, RHP – Throws 88-92 with a curveball that flashes above average. Change is a 40 right now. Prep arm from northeast, has pitch projection.

Brendon Davis, 3B, 1.7 KATOH+ – Davis has always had smooth, if not explosive, defensive actions and a very projectable frame, and he’s already moved over to third base, where he could be an above-average defender. He has some bat control despite the effort in his swing and how much he hits is going to depend on how strong he becomes as he fills out.