When it comes to prospects and young players, I’m an absolute sucker for tools. Yes, I’m one of those idiots who reaches for B.J. Upton in fantasy drafts. I still follow Mark Prior’s career closer than I should. And the news that Scott Kazmir has started a comeback attempt piqued my interest. I was bullish on Mark Trumbo coming into this season based solely off his insane power, and I near-hopelessly believe that Derek Holland will blossom into an ace one of these years.

In recent years, one of my recurring crushes has focused on Baltimore Orioles starting pitching prospects. Remember how they had a trio of young studs who were supposed to carry the franchise to new heights? Brian Matusz, Chris Tillman and Jake Arrieta were supposed to be The Future. Unfortunately, so were the Hindenburg and the RMS Titanic.

So when Arrieta started off his 2012 season on a dazzling streak of success, I was initially skeptical. After all, Arrieta is 26 years old and he’d shown no sign of putting things together. He was way too wild (11% walk rate) in the past, and even if he were limiting his walks, what were the odds he could keep it up? But then I caught another glimpse of his mid-90 mph fastball and his stellar curveball, and I picked him up in the FanGraphs staff ottoneu league. What can I say, I’m a sucker.

Immediately following this —  of course — Arrieta went into a dark period, and his season line is about what you expected coming into the year. His 6.13 ERA is the second-worst in the majors among all qualified starters, edging out Tim Lincecum by about a third of a run. He hasn’t thrown a pitch at 90% the speed of light, but the end result has been about the same.

And yet, call me crazy. I still believe in Jake Arrieta. Even if the Orioles don’t.

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All-Star Week was marred by the surprising news that Jay Gibbons retired. It was surprising in the sense that many probably did not realize that Gibbons was still “in baseball.” It has been a semi-interesting wild ride for the 35-year-old. Gibbons never went to the playoffs. While he made contact and had nice power, his low on-base percentage and poor defense at non-premium positions limited his usefulness. He dropped off of the map for a while after getting named in the Mitchell Report. Nonetheless, for some reason Jay Gibbons has always been on the periphery of my attention.

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Fare thee well, father, mother. I’m off
to de-luck the f*** out of this s***.

With this All-Star break forcing to watch so little baseball, we now have a moment to drink up the frothy milkshake of statistics from the first half. So, you and I, we shall dissect the stats and find out who has been lucky, unlucky and a little of both.

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The trade that sent Erik Bedard to the Seattle Mariners is famous for bringing Adam Jones to Camden Yards. Jones wasn’t the only big talent included in the infamous deal, though — Chris Tillman, a 6’5″ right-handed pitcher and the Mariners’ second round pick in 2006 was considered at at time to be an ace in the making. Topping out as the 22nd-best prospect in the game according to Baseball America in 2009, Tillman was billed as a future staple of the Orioles’ pitching staff.

But Tillman’s tires spun in the major leagues. In 36 starts over the past three seasons, Tillman managed just a 5.58 ERA and a 5.31 FIP. Tillman made his 2012 debut Wednesday night in Seattle, and as the east coast launched Fourth of July fireworks, Tillman torched the Mariners. His final line: 8.1 innings, two unearned runs, two hits allowed, seven strikeouts, and two walks.

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It’s not often I head to the park having never heard of a catcher only to leave believing he was a future big leaguer. The last time it happened was in 2010 After seeing Giants Hector Sanchez gun down an opposing runner at second base with a 1.93 second rocket from his knees and swing the bat from both sides of the plate. More recently, Gabriel Lino left a similar impression in April as the starting catcher for Dylan Bundy’s professional debut as a member of the Baltimore Orioles organization. With his being dealt to the Phillies as part of the Jim Thome deal, Lino finds himself in an organization that has had quite a knack for developing young catchers in recent years.

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Pitchers get hurt all the time, but I think we can all agree that CC Sabathia was on the short list of guys who we would expect to make every start in a given season. He’s been a workhorse of the first order for the last decade, but yesterday a twinge in his left groin sent him to the disabled list for the third time in his career and first time since 2006. The Yankees insist that their ace will only miss two starts and return immediately after the All-Star break.

Sabathia’s injury hurts New York but two starts isn’t the end of the world. Unfortunately for them, he wasn’t the only starter they lost on Wednesday. Andy Pettitte (1.4 WAR in nine comeback starts) was struck by a batted ball and suffered a fractured left ankle in yesterday’s game, sending him to the sidelines for a minimum of six weeks and more realistically 8-10 weeks. In the span of about four hours, the Yankees lost their two best starting pitchers.

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The minor leagues are a vast landscape of prospects, fillers and veterans. Each year, players from all three of those category impact the major leagues — sometimes for the better, sometimes not. But before they make their September callups or injury replacements, let us familiarize ourselves with some of the standouts.

International League (AAA)
IL Leaderboards

Brad Eldred (.374 OBP, .695 SLG, .465 wOBA, 197 wRC+)

The 31-year-old Eldred was slugging away in the Tigers minor league system (since released and playing in Japan). Like Dan Johnson (173 wRC+) with the White Sox, Eldred would have required multiple injuries before getting consideration at first base. The Tigers have both Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder, while the Sox have a trio in Adam Dunn, Paul Konerko and now Kevin Youkilis. That cavalcade of injuries never came — nor an age of enlightenment in which Delmon Young is no longer a DH in Detroit — Eldred never got a steady shot with the Tigers.

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In the 2011 draft, Baltimore drafted prep catcher/third baseman Nicky Delmonico in the sixth round for a bonus of 1.525 million. Entering the 2011 high school season, the Knoxville, Tennessee product and son of former Volunteers head coach Rod Delmonico was expected to be a first round pick before injuries and bonus demands caused him to slip. Additionally, a strong commitment to the University of Georgia and opportunity to play alongside his older brother made him an extremely hard sign. However, the Orioles ponied up the cash and somewhat surprisingly signed the left-handed hitter causing him to instantly become one of the top position prospects in the organization.

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Since seeing Taijuan Walker last week in Chattanooga, the requests for comparisons between the young right-hander and fellow uber-prospect Dylan Bundy of the Orioles have been coming hot and heavy. The exercise of choosing between the two best pitching prospects in baseball (for me at least) is essentially splitting hairs. Does one prefer velocity or movement? Tall or short? Ceiling or floor? Ask ten industry sources and the vote would likely be split down the middle with each having a perfectly reasonable explanation for wanting one over the other. It’s a scenario where there really is no correct answer, only speculation based on experience and personal preference.

In recent weeks, I’m one of the fortunate few who have seen both Dylan Bundy and Taijuan Walker in person. Reports with video on both are linked below.

Dylan Bundy Report with Video

Taijuan Walker Report with Video

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Did you know the FanGraphs leaderboards — which already no doubt consume the majority of your time like they do mine — also carry updated minor league data? Yeah, right here:

Under the Leaders tab, yo!

Let us take a moment, you and I, to delve into the numbers of my favorite of the minor leagues, the International League.
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