Archive for Teams

In Sports Illustrated’s 2013 baseball preview, Tom Verducci wrote a great profile of the Tampa Bay Rays and their approach to optimizing the performance of their pitching staff.

One topic that was especially interesting to me was the apparent importance the Rays place on the 1-1 count. Verducci recounts how pitching coach Jim Hickey described the organization’s focus on getting opposing batters into 1-2 counts:

The Rays believe no pitch changes the course of that at bat more than the 1-and-1 delivery. “It’s almost a 200-point swing in on-base percentage with one ball and two strikes as opposed to two balls and one strike,” Hickey told the pitchers.

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Some weeks, there are major developments in the business of baseball — like a team signing a new local TV contract. Some weeks, there are little developments on the big developments. My posts tend to focus on the big developments, but that leaves you in the dark on the little developments, unless those little developments become big developments down the road.

Dollars & Sense keeps you up to date on the smaller stories that are important but may not justify a separate post. Today, we have news on attendance through the first quarter of the seasons and expanded in replay in 2014.

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8th inning, Angels lead the White Sox 4-2. Dane de la Rosa starts the inning.

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In a Friday matinee, the sensational Matt Harvey will take the mound for the Mets against the Cubs in Chicago. Though the Cubs are hardly to be considered a daunting opponent, Harvey’s right-handed, and the Cubs hitters to be worth a damn so far are the left-handed Anthony Rizzo, the left-handed Luis Valbuena, the left-handed Nate Schierholtz, and the left-handed David DeJesus. At a glance, you might figure this could be a tougher matchup for Harvey than it seems.

And it might well play out that way, because, baseball. The other day, after Dave Cameron ripped the Mariners for starting Raul Ibanez against CC Sabathia, Ibanez singled and homered. Hilarious! There’s absolutely not a single way to know how a given player is going to perform on a given day. Harvey might be aces, Harvey might be awful, or he might be somewhere in between. But if we’re going to think about the probability, we shouldn’t be worried about Harvey facing the Cubs’ lefties. Because to this point in his career, Harvey’s been doing something unusual.

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There are a few different ways I could begin this post, and I can’t settle upon a best one, so you’re going to get them all. Prepare for a blitz of introductions. Jason Grilli was the fourth overall pick in the 1997 draft, and he was sent from the Giants to the Marlins in a trade for Livan Hernandez. He made his big-league debut for Florida in 2000, when he was 23 years old, and as a starter he worked 6.2 innings. In that one debut start, Grilli allowed more baserunners than he’s allowed so far in 2013 as the Pirates’ closer. As of Wednesday, he’s up to 16 saves.

Moving on. Every year, a handful of pitchers try to come back from existing completely off the radar. Most of them try to return and fail, but sometimes they succeed and make for improbable stories. A few years ago there was Ryan Vogelsong, and now there’s Scott Kazmir, who everyone previously assumed was never to be heard from again. Another guy trying to come back is Jeremy Bonderman, with the Mariners organization. He’s presently in Triple-A, and while he might not make it back to the majors, at least he knows a part of him is alive and well at the highest level. Because it was Bonderman who gave Jason Grilli some invaluable advice on developing and harnessing a slider.

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If you knew Emilio Bonifacio’s younger brother was an outfield prospect in the Kansas City Royals’ farm system, you might assume the two are roughly similar. But Emilio — a speedy, switch-hitting, utility man for the Toronto Blue Jays — and Jorge have little in common, at least when it comes to their games. Jorge, the younger of the pair, is a burly right fielder with a strong arm. He was enjoying an excellent campaign as a 19-year-old in the Carolina League when he broke his hamate bone Tuesday during batting practice. Reports suggest he’ll miss six to eight weeks.

It’s difficult to say how the injury will affect his development. Even after returning to the field, the alleged power-sapping effects of a hamate break can linger. Whether appropriate or not, the injury will cast a shadow over the rest of his season.

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With J.J. Putz’s elbow hurting, the Diamondbacks have turned to Heath Bell in the closer’s role. Tuesday night against Atlanta, Heath Bell converted his fifth save in six last-inning save opportunities in impressive fashion: after the first baserunner reached on an error, Bell struck out Evan Gattis and Dan Uggla swinging before retiring Chris Johnson on a fly ball to center. Wednesday afternoon, Bell added another, as he worked another hitless and walkless inning, including a strikeout of Justin Upton.

Bell’s debut outing with Arizona looked like the beginning to another ugly season, as he allowed three runs on four hits (including two home runs) and managed just one out. Since then, Bell has been brilliant: over 18 appearances (17.2 innings), Bell hasn’t allowed a home run and has recorded 22 strikeouts against just two walks, good for a 3.06 ERA and a stunning 0.87 FIP. These two saves against Atlanta featured the drivers behind Bell’s success: impeccable fastball control, and the willing to go to it whenever he needs a strike.

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Mariano Rivera’s 2013 victory lap prior to his planned retirement has been fairly remarkable thus far, returning from injury at 43 showing little sign of wear. He leads baseball with 16 saves (none blown), ranks first among AL relievers in WPA at 1.86, and has generally shown why he is a no doubt Hall of Famer to be.

There is not all that much to analyze with Rivera, his reliance on one pitch has long been notorious. Mariano’s late breaking cut fastball has gradually lost some velocity over the years, declining from the mid-90s to its current 90.2 MPH average speed but retaining its effectiveness.  I have provided a clip below comparing the movement of his cutter relative to a more typical fastball in a similar location.

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The Astros have the worst team strikeout rate in the history of baseball. It’s not even particularly close, as these things go. The Astros have struck out in 26.8% of their plate appearances. The 2010 Diamondbacks struck out in 24.7% of their plate appearances. That’s a gap of more than two percentage points, in a rate that usually fluctuates between 15-25% or so. That’s terrible, and the only consolation is that the Astros were projected to be terrible so no one really cares.

Then right behind the 2010 Diamondbacks are this year’s Braves, at 24.5%. So, this year’s Braves have the third-worst team strikeout rate in the history of baseball. Between third and fourth there’s a gap of another 1.6 percentage points. The Braves, obviously, have the second-worst team strikeout rate this season. Just glancing at their current box score, they’ve struck out six times in four innings against Ian Kennedy on Wednesday. They’re going to strike out more before this game is through. Probably. I guess I can’t be certain.

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Okay, so Tuesday night, instead of Bryce Harper, Jayson Werth, and Denard Span, the Nationals played Eury Perez, Tyler Moore, and Steve Lombardozzi. Theirs was not a particularly good lineup opposite Clayton Kershaw and the Dodgers, so perhaps it wasn’t surprising that Kershaw was dominant for an out shy of nine innings. It should probably never be surprising when Kershaw is dominant, because he’s a dominant pitcher with dominant stuff, and by the way, he’s younger than A.J. Griffin. His final line on Tuesday included a walk and 11 strikeouts, with 96 strikes. The last pitcher to throw that many strikes in a game was Justin Verlander in 2012. In 2010, Brandon Morrow threw 97 strikes in a near-no-hitter. After that you’re going back to 2002. Tuesday night, Kershaw was on top of Sandy Koufax’s game.

As is the case with all players who have established themselves as terrific, it’s easy to take Clayton Kershaw for granted, to not appreciate him as much as he ought to be appreciated. One can’t really help it, because that’s just how the brain works, but one can pause to step back and consider of how much a given player is capable. Here I feel like pausing over Kershaw, and I also feel like committing a lot of attention to his curveball, because the pitch was aces for him Tuesday and because a Clayton Kershaw curveball is one of baseball’s signature experiences. Kershaw’s about a lot more than his curve, but allow me this freedom.

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