Spring training games may be underway but the abbreviated post-lockout free agency period means we’re still seeing a number of players find new homes for the upcoming season. This weekend, the Cubs and the Twins added some much-needed pitching depth. Let’s take a look at what they can expect from their new hurlers.

The Cubs, who appear to be on the outer fringes of contention, signed starting pitcher Drew Smyly to a one-year, $5.25 million deal with $2.5 million in incentives and a mutual option for 2023. At 32, the left-handed Smyly has had an up and down career thanks in part to health issues that include missing the entirety of the 2017 and ’18 seasons due to Tommy John surgery. He spent 2019 knocking the rust off with the Rangers and Phillies, and he didn’t quite look fully recovered until a resurgent stretch with the Giants in ’20, where he showed off a 2.5 mph boost on his fastball and a career-high 14.9% swinging strike rate. That performance secured him a $11 million deal with the Braves before last season, but his performance suffered; his ERA (4.48) and FIP (5.11) tumbled below league-average and he found himself left off of Atlanta’s playoff rotation. Smyly now looks to bounce back in a return to the Cubs, where he spent the 2018 season rehabbing.

The first thing to note about Smyly is that he’s still throwing a tick harder than earlier in his career, even if he has lost about half of his velocity gains from the 2020 season. This puts his 92.1 mph fastball right around league average for lefty starters. Performance-wise, his heater took a big hit, though, with hitters putting up a .415 wOBA as he surrendered 14 home runs. The likely culprit is the shape of the pitch, as both its drop and run became more average — not the direction you want your movement to go, especially with merely average velocity. Read the rest of this entry »

After escaping last place in the American League Central for just the second time in five years in 2021, the Detroit Tigers have signaled that they’re ready to contend, committing over $230 million this offseason to free agents Javier Báez, Eduardo Rodriguez, and Andrew Chafin. On Friday, they added another free agent of note, signing Michael Pineda to a one-year deal.

The 33-year-old Pineda, who spent the past four seasons with the Twins, is guaranteed $5.5 million, with an additional $375,000 apiece for surpassing the 50-, 75-, 100-, and 125-inning thresholds, and another $500,000 for surpassing the 150- and 175-inning thresholds. That’s a maximum of $2.5 million in incentives and $8 million in total salary if he throws at least 175 innings.

Pineda hasn’t reached that total in a single season since 2016, when he was a member of the Yankees. Since then, he’s thrown just 378.1 innings at the major league level, having missed half of 2017 and all of ’18 due to Tommy John surgery, drawing a 60-game PED suspension late in ’19 that carried over into the following year, and then missing about eight weeks last season due to an abscess on his inner thigh, an inflamed elbow, and a strained oblique. It appears that he’ll miss some time to start this season due to work visa issues, which could keep him out of camp for another week or two.

When he was healthy, the 6-foot-7, 280-pound righty — “Big Mike,” of course — pitched reasonably well last year, at least from a superficial standpoint, as he posted a 3.62 ERA (83 ERA-) and 4.12 FIP (98 FIP-) in 109.1 innings. Beyond the ERA, however, there were reasons to be concerned. The average velocity of his low-spin four-seam fastball was down nearly two full ticks compared to 2019 (from 92.5 mph to 90.6) — I’m skipping his five-start ’20 here — and four compared to ’16, when he averaged 94.6 mph. From 2019 to ’21, his strikeout rate fell more than four percentage points (from 23.3% to a career-low 19.2%) and his swinging strikeout rate two points (from 12.5% to a career-low 10.5%). Read the rest of this entry »

It’s been a topsy-turvy, fast-paced offseason, with the swirling vortex of signings and trades spitting out some of the more memorable moves in recent years. A series of trades sent Isiah Kiner-Falefa all the way to the Bronx. Kenley Jansen to Atlanta came out of nowhere, and Carlos Correa, the biggest name of the offseason, ended up at a surprising destination with an odd contract.

But as it turned out, this offseason had one last twist in store for us. After weeks of relative silence, Trevor Story agreed to a six-year, $140 million contract with the Red Sox that contains a player opt-out after four years — one which Boston can negate by picking up a seventh-year option worth $25 million, or pay a $5 million buyout, bringing the total amount involved to $160 million. The deal does not include a no-trade clause, per the New York Post’s Joel Sherman.

So, you’ve just signed Trevor Story. What are you getting out of him? The answer depends on how you think his former home affected his performance, the park which must not be named: Coors Field. On the surface, it’s easy to glance at his home/road splits and check out. Throughout his career, Story has been a 146 wRC+ hitter at home and a 98 wRC+ hitter on the road. Away from an elevated bastion, he walks less, strikes out more, and makes inferior contact. What a fraud! Read the rest of this entry »

While the Dodgers reached the peak of their offseason in signing Freddie Freeman to a mega deal, they aren’t one to stop after reaching a certain threshold. What’s next after building an impenetrable offense? Adding pitching depth! There’s no such thing as enough pitchers, a truism the Dodgers themselves can attest to after dealing with a myriad of absences last season. Maybe it’s no surprise they’ve not only signed Tyler Anderson to a one-year deal worth $8 million, but also Danny Duffy to an estimated one-year, $3 million contract that includes a club option for 2023 and performance bonuses.

In a rapidly shrinking pool of free agent starters, Anderson was arguably the best remaining option. Working for the Pirates and later the Mariners last season, he took the mound 31 times and compiled 167 innings to go along with about league-average results (4.37 FIP). Consistency and durability matters, and that’s what the Dodgers are hoping to get out of Anderson. Outside of a 2019 season plagued with injury, this is who he’s been: good workload, decent results.

One of Anderson’s greatest strengths is his solid command, which helps him get through games even without swing-and-miss stuff. To wit, if we look at the 115 pitchers who threw at least 100 innings last season, his walk rate of just 5.4% ranked 17th, tying him with Zack Wheeler and Sean Manaea. We can also afford a more granular look. This is an imperfect measure, but the table below shows Anderson’s rate of pitches located in the “Shadow” (i.e. edges) of the zone compared to the league average:

Read the rest of this entry »

On the day the Dodgers made the signing of longtime Braves star Freddie Freeman official, Atlanta turned around and poached one of Los Angeles’ high-profile free agents. Kenley Jansen, a three-time All-Star who has spent the last 10 years as the Dodgers’ closer, has joined the Braves via a one-year, $16 million deal.

The 34-year-old Jansen is coming off his best season since 2017, pitching to a 2.22 ERA and 3.08 FIP in 69 innings, saving 38 games in 43 chances, and producing 1.8 WAR. He was extremely difficult to hit, holding batters to a .153 average (his lowest since 2016) and .233 slugging percentage (his lowest since ’11). Contact-wise, he held hitters to an 84.0 mph average exit velocity, .260 xwOBA, and 4.6% barrel rate, which respectively placed him in the 99th, 93rd, and 92nd percentile.

If there was a blemish on Jansen’s season it was his 12.9% walk rate, his highest since his cup-of-coffee season in 2010; when combined with his 30.9% strikeout rate, it produced an 18.0% strikeout-to-walk differential, the lowest of his career. Jansen was able to compensate thanks to his sequencing and his ability to limit hard contact, though he took the Dodgers and their fans on some rollercoaster rides. For what it’s worth, while he walked 28 in his first 40.1 innings through the end of July (16.3%), he walked just eight in 28.2 innings (7.5%) the rest of the way, that while posting a 35.8% strikeout rate. Read the rest of this entry »

On Saturday, the Miami Marlins added a much-needed source of offense to their lineup, agreeing to terms with outfielder Jorge Soler on a three-year contract worth $36 million. Soler, now entering his age-30 season, had a rough start to the 2021 season, hitting a woeful .192/.288/.370 for the Kansas City Royals. The Braves, meanwhile, basically had to replace their entire outfield halfway through the season, leading to the trade that sent Soler to Atlanta in return for relief prospect Kasey Kalich. Better times were ahead, as Soler hit .269/.358/.524 (132 wRC+) for the Braves down the stretch. Even better was his .948 OPS in the playoffs, including three World Series home runs, which led to a World Series MVP award.

Soler’s deal with the Marlins comes with an important concession in the form of opt-outs after each of the first two years of the contract. He’ll turn 33 during his next deal and ordinary corner outfielders entering their mid-30s don’t typically end up with highly lucrative contracts. Those opt-outs are especially useful for Soler, as he’s a player whose exact level of play is hard to gauge; he spent the first half of 2021 producing like he was barely a Triple-A hitter, but in ’19, he hit .265/.354/.569 (136 wRC+) and led the American League in homers with 48. If he were to repeat his 2019 performance in his first season in Miami and opt out, ZiPS would project a five-year, $110 million contract. That’s a pretty big jump compared to the two years and $24 million the Marlins would otherwise owe him, but as I said, there’s a lot of uncertainty about what Soler’s baseline expectation should be. The contract structure actually incentivizes him to opt-out to a degree; the last year of the contract is only worth $9 million. Read the rest of this entry »

Position: Baseball Projects Assistant

Department: Baseball Projects
Reports To: Director, Baseball Projects
Status: Exempt

Primary Objective:
Responsible for organizing information and processes across player development, player acquisition, in-game strategy, and other areas of the broader Baseball Operations group, with an emphasis on creating innovative tools and streamlining communications.

Essential Functions:

• Curate and deliver data-driven player plans across all levels of the organization, both in-season and during the offseason (Best Version of Yourself (BVY) player improvement manual initiative)
• Stimulate growth of Mariners scouting infrastructure including, but not limited to, Draft Portal innovations, Draft Room moderation and amateur player pool management
• Enhance advance scouting data pipelines, improve advance reporting user interface, and educate broader Baseball Operations staff on advance processes.
• Accelerate growth of High Performance department; including, but not limited to, designing report infrastructure, collaborating on Player Plan objectives, and researching new predictive tools
• Operationalize computer vision algorithms into a breadth of creative projects
• Spearhead roster management tools & player pool exercises; including, but not limited to the Offseason Survey, back of the roster exercises and pro scouting support tools
• Streamline processes via cloud computing/storage to improve computational efficiency on processes throughout the broader Baseball Operations group
• Design cross-departmental tools, websites and reports to bring analytical information to life
• Deliver educational materials to communicate quantitative information and strategy across the organization
• Field ad hoc requests from coaches, scouts and other staff about internal processes
• Contribute to player acquisition decisions in both formal and informal contexts
• Will perform other duties as assigned

Education and Experience:

• Bachelor’s degree in statistics, computer science, mathematics or any other STEM field related to data science required. Equivalent, relevant work experience may be considered in lieu of formal education with management approval.

Competencies, Knowledge, Skills and Abilities (KSA’s):

• Proficiency handling large datasets in R, SQL, Python, and/or comparable languages
• Demonstrated initiative as a team-oriented leader
• Working knowledge of baseball analytics, strategy and trends
• Shiny application or other web development experience
• Excellent interpersonal skills with proven ability to work in a fast-paced environment
• Self-motivated, creative and innovative with a high degree of integrity and attention to detail
• Experience building predictive models preferred
• Basic Spanish proficiency preferred
• Shares and expresses thoughts in a clear and effective manner through verbal and written communication skills. Exhibits effective listening skills and builds positive relationships with all team members, vendors, and guests. Is diplomatic, tactful and professional in all forms of communication.
• Understands and supports the team and is quick to volunteer to assist others. Others view most interactions as being positive with a willingness to achieve common goals. Effective in working with others to cooperatively solve problems. Workplace behavior is consistently respectful of others.
• Takes personal responsibility for getting things done in a way that positively and professionally represents the organization
• Demonstrates through their actions and interactions with others a commitment to Mariner Purpose, Mission and Values
• Competent in required job skills and knowledge. Completes work assignments thoroughly and completely in an accurate, and prompt way. Identifies and corrects errors. Is careful, alert and accurate, paying attention to details of the job.

To Apply:
To apply, please follow this link.

Position: Baseball Projects Intern

Department: Baseball Projects
Reports To: Director, Baseball Projects
Status: Non-Exempt

Primary Objective:
Responsible for: Creating innovative tools and streamlining communications at the intersection of baseball analytics and baseball operations, delivering projects to support player development, player acquisition, in-game strategy and other projects.

Essential Functions:

• Design cross-departmental tools, websites and reports to bring analytical information to life
• Provide quantitative support to Player Plan, high performance, advance scouting and other player improvement processes
• Contribute to amateur and professional player acquisition decisions in both formal and informal context
• Field ad hoc requests from coaches, scouts and other staff about internal metrics and processes
• Complete other projects as assigned by Director, Baseball Projects
• Will perform other duties as assigned

Education and Experience:

• Bachelor’s degree in statistics, computer science, mathematics or any other STEM field related to data science preferred
• Equivalent, relevant work will be considered in lieu of formal education may be approved by management

Competencies, Knowledge, Skills and Abilities (KSA’s):

• Proficiency handling large datasets in R, SQL, Python, and/or comparable languages required
• Demonstrated initiative as a team-oriented leader required.
• Working knowledge of baseball analytics, strategy and trend
• Shiny application or other web development experience
• Excellent interpersonal skills with proven ability to work in a fast-paced environment
• Self-motivated, creative and innovative with a high degree of integrity and attention to detail
• Experience building predictive models preferred
• Ability to communicate in Spanish preferred
• Shares and expresses thoughts in a clear and effective manner through verbal and written communication skills. Exhibits effective listening skills and builds positive relationships with all team members, vendors, and guests. Is diplomatic, tactful and professional in all forms of communication.
• Understands and supports the team and is quick to volunteer to assist others. Others view most interactions as being positive with a willingness to achieve common goals. Effective in working with others to cooperatively solve problems. Workplace behavior is consistently respectful of others.
• Takes personal responsibility for getting things done in a way that positively and professionally represents the organization
• Demonstrates through their actions and interactions with others a commitment to Mariner Purpose, Mission and Values
• Competent in required job skills and knowledge. Completes work assignments thoroughly and completely in an accurate, and prompt. Identifies and corrects errors. Is careful, alert and accurate, paying attention to details of the job.
• Makes decisions and takes actions that contribute to exceptional experiences for guests

Physical Activities and Working Conditions:

• Seattle-based and works out of T-Mobile Park. Remote opportunities may be available on a case-by-case basis.

To Apply:
To apply, please follow this link.

The content in this posting was created and provided solely by the Seattle Mariners.

I recently asked a pair of prospects which of their former teammates have the best wheels, and on each occasion a 24-year-old middle infielder in the Boston Red Sox system was on the short list. One had him numero uno. The other deemed the speedster in question as being a step behind his first choice.

“Corbin Carroll, for sure,” was Ryne Nelson’s response to my question, the top pitching prospect in the Arizona Diamondbacks system naming the organization’s top position player prospect. “That dude flies.”

While that answer was anything but unexpected, is Carroll truly faster than David Hamilton, whom Nelson played with in the Cape Cod League?

“I think so,” said the righty. “I’ve never seen them together, but I have watched Corbin get from home to third in what felt like three seconds. Hamilton is definitely up there, but it seems like Corbin is the fastest player I’ve ever seen in my life. He can really burn around the bases.”

So too can Hamilton, whom Kody Clemens played with at both the University of Texas and in the independent Constellation League during the 2020 shutdown. Prior to my conversation with Nelson, the Detroit Tigers prospect had told me that Hamilton is the swiftest he’s taken the field with. Read the rest of this entry »

The Phillies continued to fill their outfield holes on Friday, signing Nick Castellanos to a five-year deal worth $100 million. Despite the decline in league-wide offense, the ex-Red had his best offensive season in 2021, hitting .309/.362/.576 with 34 home runs for a 140 wRC+ and 4.2 WAR. All those numbers were new career highs, and this was his first season in which he climbed over the three-WAR barrier.

It’s an enormous challenge to resist comparing the recent arcs of Phillies history to that of the Braves. Both teams saw a need to do complete rebuilds in the mid-2010s, aggressively accumulated prospects, and tried to time their big pushes into contention near particular landmarks. For the Braves, it was the new stadium, and for Philadelphia, a massive new television deal with Comcast Sportsnet worth $2.5 billion and company equity. Atlanta’s master plan unfolded just as envisioned: four consecutive division titles, culminating in the team’s first World Series championship since 1995. The Phillies, on the other hand, only just now put together their first winning season in a decade, and by the smallest possible margin.

The reasons for Philadephia’s lackluster rebuild results are myriad, but to simplify it, it comes down to two things. First: the inability, for whatever reason, to develop minor leaguers, both in-house and from trades, at the rate that the Braves were able to. Second: the willingness to make up for this gap, either with cleverness or financial resources. That’s not to say the Phillies were lackadaisical in their moves or unwilling to sign big free agents; they brought in Bryce Harper to a monster contract, landed Zack Wheeler, and regularly made trades to acquire talent like J.T. Realmuto and Jean Segura. But not all these moves worked out as well as they hoped, and there were too many holes on the roster that they tried to fill with wishful thinking. Read the rest of this entry »

If Twitter determined reality, Carlos Correa would be a Yankee right now. A week after the World Series ended, he posed for a picture in front of Madison Square Garden wearing blue and gray, with former teammate Martín Maldonado playing photographer. You could see the writing on the wall, and many Yankees fans did.

If friendships determined reality, he’d surely still be an Astro. It was Maldonado with him in New York, and the charismatic catcher had a leg up in the recruiting pitch: he had all offseason to talk to Correa, while teams were maintaining radio silence due to the lockout. Houston came back to the table, too: they made several late offers to Correa in an attempt to woo him back.

But Correa has agency, and the Twins do too. Last night, he shocked the baseball world by signing a three-year deal to play in Minnesota:

MLB source: Free agent shortstop Carlos Correa has reached an agreement with the Minnesota Twins (@Twins) on a three-year deal worth $105.3 million with opt outs after the first two years. Highest average annual value for an MLB infielder.

— Mark Berman (@MarkBerman_) March 19, 2022

Read the rest of this entry »