A ribbon-cutting lead off walk by Austin Meadows was perhaps the closest the Tampa Bay Rays came to threatening Justin Verlander and the Houston Astros this afternoon, who soundly took Game 1 of the ALDS from the Wild Card-winners.

Two pitches after Meadows’ walk, Tommy Pham rolled over a 1-0 slider that Houston turned into a double play — José Altuve made a great adjustment on an inaccurate feed from Alex Bregman to complete it — one of the game’s two twin killings off the bat of Pham, stifling Tampa Bay in the first. They never truly threatened again, and Verlander penned another chapter of what is already an epic postseason career: seven innings, one hit, three walks and eight strikeouts, enough for him to pass former Astro Roger Clemens for third on the all-time playoff strikeout list. With 175 career postseason punchies, Verlander is sneaking up on Andy Pettite (193) and John Smoltz (199) like a freight train.

Though he fell behind in counts early on, Verlander delivered several well-executed breaking balls when he did. Back-to-back changeups to Ji-Man Choi set the first baseman up to strike out to end the first, while the slider propelled Verlander through the next two innings, during which he faced the minimum. No Rays baserunner reached second base against Verlander, and aside from a fat 1-0 slider missed by Willy Adames in his first at-bat, they really weren’t given much chance to.

Verlander’s on-mound counterpart, the condor-like righty Tyler Glasnow, matched him in the linescore early on, but labored. Glasnow opened with an eight-pitch first inning that included two loud outs, then threw more than 20 pitches in the second and third. His stuff — a bunch of naturally-cutting fastballs, none beneath 95 mph, and two that touched 100, and an ungodly curveball — was electric, but he walked three in 4.1 innings and surrendered six balls in play hit in excess of 95 mph.

After Glasnow wiggled out of trouble in the second (Robinson Chirinos hit a two-out, laser liner to Pham in left) and the third (Glasnow pumped past Yordan Alvarez, ending with 99 on the black, and stranded two), he had an easy fourth inning that made it seem as if he was settling in for a few more smooth frames. But that’s when things spiraled out of control for the Rays. Read the rest of this entry »

In a season during which all but a handful of Yankees missed time due to injury, it’s amazing that they’ll enter the playoffs with almost all of their best players on the active roster. On paper, they look great. How that translates on the field is another story. They lost nine of their last 17 games, but there’s no question that their starting pitchers can be very good, the bullpen is very deep, and their lineup is filled with guys who can thump. That combination can be quite effective in outlasting a playoff opponent.

Here’s how every member of the Yankees’ 2019 ALDS roster was originally acquired. The team’s full RosterResource Depth Chart and Payroll pages are also available as a resource.

Homegrown (6)

• Brett Gardner, OF: Drafted Third Round 2005
• Austin Romine, C: Drafted Second Round 2007
• Gary Sánchez, C: Amateur Free Agent (Dominican Republic) July 2009
• Luis Severino, SP: Amateur Free Agent (Dominican Republic) December 2011
• Aaron Judge, OF: Drafted First Round (32) 2013
• Tyler Wade, INF/OF: Drafted Fourth Round 2013

Total WAR: 12.2 Read the rest of this entry »

The 2019 Twins fell one win shy of their franchise record (102), set back in 1965 by a team that included future Hall of Famer Harmon Killebrew, as well as Tony Oliva, Mudcat Grant, and Jim Kaat. That season ended with a Game 7 World Series loss to the Dodgers — Cy Young winner and World Series MVP Sandy Koufax pitched a three-hit shutout — and it wasn’t until 22 years later that the Twins finally won their first championship since moving to Minnesota.

Reaching the World Series again will require a roster with limited postseason experience that isn’t quite at full health — it’s easier to name the position players who weren’t injured over the past month or two — to get past the Yankees, who have one of the best lineups in baseball, and either the Rays or Astros, who each have three starting pitchers capable of shutting down any opponent.

Here’s how every member of the Twins’ 2019 ALDS roster was originally acquired. The team’s full RosterResource Depth Chart and Payroll pages are also available as a resource.

Homegrown (13)

• Kyle Gibson, SP: Drafted First Round (22) 2009
• Jorge Polanco, SS: Amateur Free Agent (Dominican Republic) July 2009
• Max Kepler, OF: Amateur Free Agent (Germany) July 2009
• Miguel Sanó, 3B: Amateur Free Agent (Dominican Republic) October 2009
• Eddie Rosario, OF: Drafted Fourth Round 2010
• José Berríos, SP: Drafted First Round (32) 2012
• Tyler Duffey, RP: Drafted Fifth Round 2012
• Taylor Rogers, RP: Drafted 11th Round 2012
• Mitch Garver, C: Drafted Ninth Round 2013
• Luis Arraez, INF/OF: Amateur Free Agent (Venezuela) November 2013
• Brusdar Graterol, RP: Amateur Free Agent (Venezuela) August 2014
• Cody Stashak, RP: Drafted 13th Round 2015
• Randy Dobnak, RP: Undrafted Free Agent August 2017

Total WAR: 30.0 Read the rest of this entry »

Before or during Jack Flaherty’s start today, viewers are likely to hear about his 0.91 second half ERA. It is the third-lowest second-half ERA since 1920. The second-lowest second half ERA belongs to Greg Maddux, who accomplished the feat in the strike-shortened 1994 season and pitched barely more than 50 second-half innings. The first belongs to Jake Arrieta, whose 0.79 ERA in the second half in 2015 propelled him to the Cy Young award. Of course, ERA alone doesn’t tell the whole story. For one thing, as with Maddux, it doesn’t show how many innings are being thrown. For another, different eras produce vastly different run-scoring environments. Pitching with a juiced ball or juiced players can make life more difficult for pitchers, rendering a lower ERA even more impressive. To that end, we can put Flaherty’s second half in perspective.

The easiest way to do so here at FanGraphs is to use RA9-WAR, which takes runs allowed, innings, and the run environment into account. Flaherty’s second-half RA9-WAR was 6.4, way out in front of Jacob deGrom’s second-place 4.8 mark. If you cut Flaherty’s RA9-WAR in half, he would still rank ninth in baseball since the All-Star Break. We have second-half splits going back to 1974; here’s where Flaherty ranks among the couple-thousand qualified second-half pitchers:

Read the rest of this entry »

Jake Odorizzi heads into the postseason on the heels of a career year. In his second season with the Minnesota Twins, the 29-year-old right-hander has a 3.51 ERA, a 3.36 FIP, and 178 strikeouts in 159 innings. If won-lost records are your cup of tea, Odorizzi boasts a snazzy 15-7 mark going into Saturday’s presumed start against the Yankees in ALDS Game 2. (There’s an outside chance he’ll be held back for Monday’s Game in Minneapolis.)

An uptick of velocity on all of his pitches has played a role in Odorizzi’s success. That’s especially been the case with his heater, which former FanGraphs colleague Sung Min Kim — hired recently by the KBO’s Lotte Giants — called “The best fastball of 2019” back in June.

What was behind Odorizzi’s increased velocity and the improved performances that came with it? I asked him that question when the Twins visited Fenway Park in early September.

———

David Laurila: You’re having your best season. To what do you attribute that?

Jake Odorizzi: “I did a new training program this past offseason. I worked with a gentleman in Plant City, Florida named Randy Sullivan. That was at the Florida Baseball Ranch. Kyle Gibson used him last year. Justin Verlander has done some work with him, as well..

“I’d felt like I was out of whack mechanically. Health-wise I was good, but I needed to get more out of my body, maybe use my mechanics a little bit better, a little bit smoother. I did some weighted-ball stuff; I did a mobility program. I kind of unlocked some more torque in my body. I was able to separate my upper half from my lower half instead being like a one-piece — everything goes at once, and it’s stiff. Read the rest of this entry »

The Rays’ path to building a 96-win playoff team is about as unconventional as you can imagine. They aren’t active in free agency, although both of their offseason signings worked out great. They don’t have a lot of homegrown players, but one is a former Cy Young Award winner and another was an All-Star as a rookie in 2019. They’ve filled out nearly 70% of their roster through trades that mostly didn’t include top prospects going elsewhere. While the constant turnover might not help in growing their fan base — they averaged fewer than 15,000 per home game this season — it’s been a recipe for success on the field.

Here’s how every member of the Rays’ 2019 ALDS roster was originally acquired. The team’s full RosterResource Depth Chart and Payroll pages are also available as a resource.

Homegrown (6)

• Kevin Kiermaier, CF: Drafted 31st Round 2010
• Blake Snell, SP: Drafted First Round (52) 2011
• Yonny Chirinos, RP: Amateur Free Agent (Venezuela) June 2012
• Diego Castillo, RP: Amateur Free Agent (Dominican Republic) March 2014
• Brandon Lowe, INF/OF: Drafted Third Round 2015
• Brendan McKay, RP: Drafted First Round (4) 2017

Total WAR: 10.0

Signed in Free Agency (2)

• Charlie Morton, RP: December 2018 (HOU) — Signed to two-year, $30 million contract ($15 million vesting option in 2021).
• Avisaíl García, OF: January 2019 (CHW) — Signed to one-year, $3.5 million contract.

Read the rest of this entry »

The Astros, who set a franchise-record with 107 regular season wins in 2019, head into the playoffs with a well-balanced roster that includes plenty of star power, young talent, and battle-tested veterans, and almost no weaknesses. Only nine of the 25 players were part of the 2017 championship team, although most of the biggest contributors still remain. The most notable departure is Charlie Morton, who they’ll face off against in Game 3 on Monday.

Here’s how every member of the Astros’ 2019 ALDS roster was originally acquired. The team’s full RosterResource Depth Chart and Payroll pages are also available as a resource.

Homegrown (8)

• José Altuve, 2B: Amateur Free Agent (Venezuela) March 2007
• George Springer, OF: Drafted First Round (11) 2011
• Carlos Correa, SS: Drafted First Round (1) 2012
• Josh James, RP: Drafted 34th Round 2014
• Jose Urquidy, RP/SP: Amateur Free Agent (Mexico) March 2015
• Alex Bregman, 3B: Drafted First Round (2) 2015
• Kyle Tucker, OF: Drafted First Round (5) 2015
• Myles Straw, INF/OF: Drafted 12th Round 2015

Total WAR: 24.5

Signed in Free Agency (7)

• Yuli Gurriel, 1B: July 2016 (Cuba) — Signed to five-year, $47.5 million contract.
• Josh Reddick, OF: November 2016 (LAD) — Signed to four-year, $52 million contract.
• Joe Smith, RP: December 2017 (CLE) — Signed to two-year, $15 million contract.
• Héctor Rondón, RP: December 2017 (CHC) — Signed to two-year, $8.5 million contract.
• Robinson Chirinos, C: December 2018 (TEX) — Signed to one-year, $5.75 million contract.
• Michael Brantley, OF: December 2018 (CLE) — Signed two-year, $32 million contract.
• Wade Miley, SP: February 2019 (MIL) — Signed to one-year, $4.5 million contract.

Total WAR: 12.9
Read the rest of this entry »

The Dodgers got their 2019 postseason off to a convincing start, blanking the Nationals 6-0 in a game that remained close longer than it should have. Walker Buehler earned his first postseason win, throwing six mostly strong innings marred only by a dicey fourth.

Hyun-Jin Ryu has been getting more attention where the Cy Young race is concerned by virtue of his league-leading 2.32 ERA, but with both Ryu and Clayton Kershaw now in their 30s, Buehler has more clearly become the team’s build-around pitcher. For the first time in his career, Buehler was given the Game 1 nod and responded by allowing just a single hit in six innings, while striking out eight. The scoreless outing brings Beuhler’s consecutive postseason scoreless innings streak to 16.2 innings; his last run allowed was a solo homer given up to Christian Yelich in the 2018 NLCS. The next time Buehler fails to strike out seven batters in a postseason game, it will be the first time.

The fourth inning was a very near thing for Buehler and the Dodgers. Only up 2-0 at that point in the game, Buehler threw 11 of his 13 fastballs outside of the strike zone, allowing all three of Washington’s walks in the game. The pitches weren’t a function of failing to get borderline strikes on the edge of the zone, either; five of the fastballs weren’t anywhere close to the strike zone, including two to Adam Eaton that would have been high balls to Manute Bol.

Buehler’s fourth inning a close call continued when facing Juan Soto with Adam Eaton and Anthony Rendon on-base. Soto put up a 1.000 OPS against right-handed pitchers in 2019, but he’s struggled against sliders with a .161 batting average and a .274 slugging against sliders from righties. Buehler left a tempting one right in Soto’s wheelhouse and Soto was just an eyelash away from fully crushing it. But after a Howie Kendrick walk, an easy groundout from Asdrúbal Cabrera left the bases loaded and the Nats scoreless.

Read the rest of this entry »

While eight teams remain in the postseason, seven who missed out are busy searching for their next skipper. On Thursday, the Mets’ Mickey Callaway joined the ranks of the unemployed, getting the axe after just two seasons at the helm. He’s the fourth manager fired since late September with at least a year remaining on his contract, after the Padres’ Andy Green, the Pirates’ Clint Hurdle, and the Angels’ Brad Ausmus. Meanwhile, two former World Series winners, the Giants’ Bruce Bochy and the Royals’ Ned Yost, have retired, and a third ex-champion, Joe Maddon, parted ways with the Cubs after his contract expired. At this writing, the fate of the Phillies’ Gabe Kapler still hangs in the balance.

What follows here is a roundup of each vacancy, including a list of reported candidates that may not be comprehensive, since all of this is attempting to hit several moving targets. I’ve attempted to distinguish them from those whose candidacies are merely speculative. The teams are listed in order of 2019 records.

Mets (86-76)

What happened: Callaway was hired by general manager Sandy Alderson, who took a leave of absence in mid-2018 due to a recurrence of cancer and decided not to return to the job. Former agent Brodie Van Wagenen was hired last November, and he made a series of splashy moves, many of which ultimately set the Mets back (particularly the trade of two former first-round picks for Robinson Cano and Edwin Diaz). The holdover manager did not mesh with an increasingly analytically inclined front office — at one point, Callaway boasted, “I bet 85% of our decisions go against the analytics,” a statement that stood out given his often glaring in-game mistakes, many centered around a bullpen that ranked among the league’s worst. Read the rest of this entry »

The early innings of Game 1 at SunTrust Park on Thursday evening — and for that matter, the late ones — served as a reminder that you can watch baseball all year long, and drill deep in analyzing and anticipating what might happen come the postseason, but sometimes, things simply unfold in ways that run counter to numbers and expectations. Depending upon where you sit, that’s the thrill and the agony of October baseball. For seven innings, the mistakes by a stellar Cardinals defense loomed large against the backdrop of a low-scoring affair, but then a late-inning slugfest produced nine of the game’s 13 runs against a pair of usually-solid bullpens. Ultimately, the Cardinals overcame a 3-1 deficit, scoring six unanswered runs in the final two frames and hanging on for a 7-6 victory.

In the regular season, the Cardinals made fewer errors than any other NL team (66), posted the league’s highest Ultimate Zone Rating (32.8), second-highest defensive efficiency rate (.706), and third-highest total of Defensive Runs Saved. That excellent work gave a pitching staff that produced a middling 4.27 FIP quite a leg up; the team’s 3.82 ERA ranked second in the league, and the 0.45 runs per nine gap between ERA and FIP was the majors’ largest. Without that defense — which Craig Edwards called the primary driver of their success just a few weeks ago — the Cardinals might well have wound up in the Wild Card game, or even outside the playoff picture instead of winning the division.

Meanwhile, a bullpen that lost closer Jordan Hicks to Tommy John surgery in late June wound up finding a silver lining in Carlos Martinez’s rotator cuff strain. As with last August, when he rehabbed his way back from a previous shoulder strain as a reliever, Martinez returned to the bullpen. He pitched very well if not dominant, posting a 3.05 ERA and 2.86 FIP while converting 24 of 27 save chances. He allowed just two home runs in 48.1 innings. On Thursday night, when it appeared the game was firmly in hand, he allowed two more and made things interesting. Read the rest of this entry »