Clayton Kershaw has been one of the most hyped up young pitchers in the league since he made his debut as a 20-year-old in 2008. In 2011, he made that next step toward becoming one of the league’s true aces. With 21 victories, 248 strikeouts, a stellar 62 ERA-, a 2.47 FIP, 6.8 WAR — whichever way you slice it, Kershaw was an elite pitcher in 2011 and truly deserving of recognition, regardless of age. The fact that he has accomplished so much by age 23 is phenomenal.

At age 23, Roy Halladay was setting the MLB record for the highest ERA in a season, posting a 10.64 ERA in 67.2 innings with the Toronto Blue Jays. So much has changed since then, of course, with Halladay bringing in two Cy Young Awards over the past 10 years. This season marks Halladay’s second runner-up finish. If not for Kershaw taking home the pitching Triple Crown (leading in wins, strikeouts, and ERA), one could have imagined a closer vote.

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Only a few days ago, it seemed as though the Phillies would be going into the 2012 season with the bullpen set just as in 2011: with Ryan Madson as closer. The rumored four-year, $44 million dollar deal between Madson and the Phillies blew up nearly as soon as it was “confirmed.” Less than a week later, the Phillies have reached an agreement with a new closer. According to Jim Salisbury of Comcast Sports Philadelphia, Jonathan Papelbon will be the Phillies new closer after inking a four-year, $50 million contract on Friday. The deal also includes a $10 million vesting option for a fifth year.

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Jayson Stark reported Thursday that the Phillies are kicking the tires on Grady Sizemore. The team also has interest in former Twins outfielder Jason Kubel. The news came on the heels of the Ryan Madson–Jonathan Papelbon hoopla and the Phillies’ meeting with another former Twins player, Michael Cuddyer.

The list of Philadelphia’s targets changes daily, but Kubel and Sizemore pique interest for various reasons. Sizemore is notable from a risk-versus-reward standpoint, since the Phillies’ current left fielder is John Mayberry — who works better as the right-handed half of a platoon; the team has clearly stated it prefers that Dom Brown remains in Triple A for the season. Kubel will be an interesting case study in terms of how teams value his breakout/outlying 2009 performance. Will he get paid handsomely, despite consecutive mediocre seasons?

Obviously, both players are risky for different reasons.

Sizemore, though, represents a good risk, since the potential reward is substantial. With Kubel, the likeliest scenario has a team paying $6 million to $7 million per year for a .335 wOBA, poor defense and below-average base-running.

In both cases, a heck of a lot has to work out to justify a team’s investment.

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“The game speeds up on Madson sometimes. He doesn’t get to the same comfort level. There’s a little anxiety in there. The ninth inning is a little different than the eighth. There’s been a lot of solid eighth-inning guys who just haven’t been able to pitch the ninth, then one day they learn how to do it. Ryan Madson is Ryan Madson. What did he do, take a crash course in how to close or something?” – Phillies Pitching Coach Rich Dubee

Lost in the yearly hubub about whether relievers are overpaid, there’s the story of this reliever and his remarkable turnaround in the past year. Ryan Madson, specifically, has seen his stature in Philadelphia change radically, quickly. Perhaps there’s no easier way of pointing this out then providing a date for the above quote: March 29, 2011.

Over the course of this year he changed some minds, but it’s not as simple as a few successful saves in a row. There’s also been some actual underlying change in his game. Exploring the last few years might help us understand Madson better. How did he finally catch his penguin — the coveted ‘Proven Closer’ mantel?

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News broke late Tuesday that the Philadelphia Phillies were on the verge of signing Ryan Madson to a 4-year year/$44 million deal. By Wednesday, there was news that the deal was “waiting approval” by Phillies ownership or “only a deal in principle” or “falling apart.”

However this plays out, the idea of a 4-year/$44 million deal for a top-line closer is likely to set the standard against which other closer deals are negotiated this winter. We’re looking at you, Jonathan Papelbon.

What should we make of a possible 4-year/$44 million deal for a pitcher like Ryan Madson?  Several things.

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On Tuesday, we took a quick look at the competitive balance in the MLB, and I made the claim that baseball may have more parity than most leagues, but it also has want of greater balance. During the course of the piece, I made this statement:

The NFL has decided it wants payroll to have essentially no impact on winning, so teams basically trot out the same amount of money every Sunday and hope their money was better-spent. Is that what the MLB wants?

Aft’wards, Paul Swydan pointed out to me that indeed NFL salaries are not flat. Despite their hard cap, their hefty revenue sharing, and their tight spandex pants, the NFL still exhibits nearly a $77M gap between the biggest and lowest payroll — impressive, but still nothing compared to the MLB:

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The Phillies wasted little time in making its first move of the offseason, signing Jim Thome to a one-year deal worth $1.25 million. With just those details, and no specifics about his potential playing time or role, it’s still a fantastic move. Even with added details it’s difficult to find any flaws in a minimal commitment to an offensive force.

He may be 41 years old, but his numbers are still impressive. Since 2008, he has posted the following wOBAs: .370, .367, .437, .362. The man can still rake, and he gives the Phillies a legitimate bench power threat. While it’s tough to fault an 102-win team that played all five games of the Division Series, the 2011 squad was certainly lacking power off the bench. Ross Gload had the hips of a 70-year old man and redundancy was abound with Michael Martinez and Wilson Valdez. Thome can now serve as the left-handed power pinch-hitter as well as the designated hitter in interleague games. And given the Phillies championship aspirations, some smidgen of the rationale for making this move involves his potential role in the World Series.

The move also satisfies fans from a nostalgic point of view.

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With a classic World Series — the most exciting in a long time, if not the best-played or best-managed — now over, it is time to hand out individual awards for the 2011 regular season. Sure, some people are anticipating the Cy Young, MVP, and Rookie of the Year announcements, but I bet true baseball fans really pumped for stuff like today’s award, which attempts to measure how much a hitter has contributed to his team’s wins beyond what traditional linear weights indicates. Who is 2011’s King of Little Things?

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Last off season, I looked at the chances of a SP going on the DL. I have finally had time to go back and look at how my predictions fared.

The predictions used logistic regression to find the percentage chance that a pitcher would end up on the DL. I used age, games started in the previous 3 years and how many of the previous 3 years did the pitcher go on the DL. The equation I ended up with was:

1/(1+e^(-z))
where:
z = (.2209)(Years with Trips to DL)+(-0.0040)(GS in last 3 year)+(0.0509)(Age in previous season)-1.7692

Using the equation, I projected the chance that a starter would go on the DL and here is a list of those projections.

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Some of the following twirlers can really play the game of ball called base!

In 2011, a total of 272 different pitchers started a game in the MLB — that’s an average of 9 starters per team. In other words, five starters is not enough. Successful MLB organizations need pitching depth — and lots of it. Some teams may need a 7th or 8th starter for only 1 game, but ask the Boston Red Sox how important 1 game is.

For teams in the need, the 2012 starting pitcher free agent list has some value and some worthy risks out there, but as with every year, no team should expect the free agent market to have all the answers. The following list, though not exhaustive, runs down the most important names of the 2012 free agents:

Top Tier — Starters who promise big contracts and big seasons.
C.J. Wilson (LHP, Age 31 next season, free agent)
CC Sabathia (LHP, 31, may opt out)
Hiroki Kuroda (RHP, 37, FA)
Edwin Jackson (RHP, 28, FA)
Mark Buehrle (LHP, 33, FA)
Javier Vazquez (RHP, 35, FA)

The Obvious One, Mr. C.J. Wilson, finally promises to pull in that contract big enough to purchase his long-awaited solid-gold rocket car. Wilson, the heat-hurling lord of the lefties figures to have at least two very impressive suitors — the New York Yankees and his present team, the Texas Rangers. Since becoming a starter two years ago, he has posted a combined 10.5 WAR, sporting an ace-worth 3.24 FIP this year.

Not only does Wilson have a shot to break the bank, but there appears to be a chance that twirling titan CC Sabathia may opt out of the final four years of his contract with the Yankees. Sabathia has been yawningly awesome through his 10-year career, never posting a FIP- higher than 96 and assembling a career-best 2.88 FIP in 2011.

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