It has to be the toughest decision in sports. When does a team thank its veteran for his services rendered and ask him to step aside for a younger player? The process is more complicated when the team is a contender, as veterans are perceived as being safer bets because of proven past performance. At some point, though, a declining veteran no longer seems safe.

This conversation is about Raul Ibanez but it could also be about a few other players around the league. And this conversation in particular is made more convoluted by names like John Mayberry, Jr, Ben Francisco, and Domonic Brown. Not only are the questions of age and likelihood of resurgence relevant, but so are questions of upside and readiness. What is the right mix of safety and upside for a contending team?

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Yesterday Roy Halladay continued the excellent start to his 2011 season, striking out 14 batters — tied for a career best — and allowing a single run over 8.2 innings. Five starts into the season Halladay leads the league in WAR and is second in xFIP and FIP. Halladay, 33, is continuing a trend started in 2004 throwing more cutters and fewer two-seam fastballs. Early in the season he is throwing the most cutters (47%) and fewest two-seam fastballs (26%) of his career.

Halladay has always thrown his cutter more often to left-handed than right-handed batters, and it is no different this year as he has thrown it 58% of the time to left-handed batters. His command with the pitch has been other-worldly:

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Almost exactly one year ago, the Philadelphia Phillies signed Ryan Howard to a five year contract extension that was, shall we say, not exactly well thought of. The Phillies already had their slugging first baseman under team control for the current season and an additional one, but chose to give him a long term deal that locked up his age 32-36 seasons anyway.

Little did we know that this extend-a-guy-who-doesn’t-need-an-extension idea was going to turn into a full fledged trend. The Rockies took it to another level over the winter, giving Troy Tulowitzki a six year deal that, combined with his current contract, will keep him in Colorado through 2020. While I thought that deal exposed the Rockies to a lot of risk, Tulowitzki is in the best-player-in-baseball conversation, and locking him up now did give them a chance to keep an elite player around – an option that might not have been possible had they waited for him to have another MVP type season or two.

Now, we have the Ryan Braun extension, which borrows some from each of the first two moves. Like Tulowitzki, the Brewers chose to sign Braun through 2020, despite the fact that he was already under contract through 2015. Like Howard, they locked up a big time power hitter’s age 32-36 seasons. Braun simply isn’t as good as Tulowitzki and he got nearly the same amount of money, so it’s easy to say that this extension for Milwaukee is worse than the deal Colorado made. But, is it worse than the roundly mocked deal that Philadelphia made?

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On Wednesday night, Ben Francisco hit his second home run of the year, which, combined with his seeming comfort in a regular role on a contending team, probably caused more than one Indians fan to utter an epithet under his or her breath. Investigating Francisco’s route to the present day seems to call to mind the titular saying – it seems that his beauty is dependent on the person (or organization) that is doing the appraising.

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The Philadelphia Phillies offensive depth was already going to be thin this season. That was before Domonic Brown broke the hamate bone on his right wrist Saturday afternoon. And while there’s an argument that this might have been a good thing in the long run for Brown, and that the Phillies may not suffer much of a drop-off from Brown to Ben Francisco, the injury will seriously test the Phillies’ already thin depth.
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In one sense, the 2011 Phillies are pretty easy to sum up – they’ve pushed all in on starting pitching, and with the best rotation that anyone has seen in some time, they are perceived as the strong favorites to win the National League. If the pitching holds up, they’re going to be good. But, there’s far more to the story than that, and I actually find this Phillies team rather fascinating.

Let’s start with the offense.

Starting Line-Up

1. Jimmy Rollins, SS
2. Placido Polanco, 3B
3. Chase Utley, 2B*
4. Ryan Howard, 1B*
5. Raul Ibanez, LF*
6. Shane Victorino, CF
7. Carlos Ruiz, C
8. Domonic Brown*/Ben Francisco, RF

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The Phillies got some bad news over the weekend, as Chase Utley’s lingering knee soreness resulted in him getting an MRI. While no structural damage was found, you can now add his knees to the ever-growing list of body parts that the 32-year-old has had problems with. As noted in the linked article, he had surgery for a broken hand in 2007, hip surgery following the 2008 season, and then had to undergo surgery on his thumb last summer.

From the quantity of health problems he’s had in the last four years, it might appear that Utley’s body is just beginning to break down. Given that there are a number of examples of second baseman who fell off a cliff in their early 30s – see Roberto Alomar, Carlos Baerga, Chuck Knoblauch, and Brian Roberts, among others – it could be natural to assume that Utley’s headed for a steep decline. In fact, the rate of aging among second baseman has been so severe that it has become a truism in baseball that players who man the keystone position simply don’t age well. Theories on the causes of this phenomenon often hinge around the beating second baseman can take while turning the double play, as they often have to guard the bag with their back to an oncoming baserunner intent on breaking up the twin killing. Is Utley yet another example of the wear and tear of second base causing a premium second baseman to break down earlier than he would have otherwise?

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