Adam Frazier is off to a hot start with the Baltimore Orioles. Signed as a free agent over the offseason, the 31-year-old infielder/outfielder went 5-for-8 with three doubles, a home run, and a stolen base in his first series of the season. A National League All-Star in 2021 when he slashed .305/.368/.411 with the Pittsburgh Pirates and San Diego Padres, he is now in his eighth big-league season and his 11th in pro ball; Pittsburgh selected the left-handed hitter in the sixth round of the 2013 draft out of Mississippi State University.

Frazier had no idea what to expect on draft day. The erstwhile Bulldog — his teammates at the SEC school included Kendall Graveman, Hunter Renfroe, and Brandon Woodruff — had talked to scouts from most MLB teams and “didn’t really have a feel” for where he’d be going. It nearly ended up being Houston.

“We were in Virginia to play a Super Regional,” Frazier explained. “It was the day before the game, and the draft was going on during our practice. It was basically ‘have your phone on you and see what happens.’ My agent called. The Astros actually wanted to draft me, but they were offering under slot. I was like, ‘Tell them no, unless they want to do slot.’ I fell from there and ended up going to Pittsburgh.”

Houston, which had the first pick in the sixth round, ended up selecting Jacob Nottingham. The Pirates then took Frazier with the 13th pick. As an Oriole, he now has a tie-in to the could-have-been: Baltimore GM Mike Elias was in Houston’s front office at the time, as was assistant GM Sig Mejdal. Read the rest of this entry »

We’ve reached the point in the offseason when it’s time for one of my favorite/most hated preseason traditions: my attempt to predict breakouts and busts. Since any breakouts or busts beyond what a projection system suggests are naturally going to be low-probability outcomes, there’s a high probability of me looking pretty silly — something writers try to avoid. Let’s start by looking back at how smart I was last year…or how foolish:

First, the bad news. Kelenic and Adell were both just awful, and I would definitely call 2022 a giant miss for both players as they enter their post-prospect period. I suspect there’s more hope to still be had for Kelenic than Adell, but I wouldn’t exactly call myself prescient about either. Kepler’s breakout didn’t happen at all, and his power all but disappeared. Anderson I’ll call an incomplete because of injury, and while Higashioka did match his entire previous career in WAR, that was largely due to defense, which I can hardly claim credit for predicting. Hiura did hit far better than he had recently, but he also didn’t exactly get a ton of playing time with the Brewers, who appeared to have lost interest in him. There were a few triumphs, however: Kwan and Lux both had excellent seasons, especially the former. Read the rest of this entry »

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about the exciting beginning of the WBC, early indications in spring training that MLB’s rules changes are having the intended effects, and a classic unprecedented occurrence in a baseball game, then continue their 2023 season preview series by discussing the Houston Astros (17:49) with Chandler Rome of The Houston Chronicle, and the Pittsburgh Pirates (59:39) with Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, plus a Past Blast from 1979 (1:30:38), preview trivia answers (1:37:36), and a farewell to editor Dylan Higgins.

Audio intro: Sloan, “So Far So Good”
Audio interstitial 1: The Black Crowes, “Houston Don’t Dream About Me”
Audio interstitial 2: Mason Jennings, “Pittsburgh”
Audio outro: Hockey Dad, “Dylan’s Place”

Link to Castillo catch
Link to runner’s celebration mistake
Link to last play of Australia-Korea
Link to Nootbaar catch
Link to Ohtani highlights
Link to story on Ohtani
Link to Passan tweet
Link to Lewie Pollis on the shift
Link to Tom Tango on stolen bases
Link to Cooper on game times
Link to Johnson’s bird snuff film
Link to You’re Wrong About on snuff films
Link to FanGraphs playoff odds
Link to FG payroll breakdown
Link to Astros offseason tracker
Link to Astros depth chart
Link to Passan on Click and Crane
Link to Chandler on Brown
Link to Chandler’s spring preview
Link to Chandler’s author archive
Link to Baumann on Brown
Link to Pirates offseason tracker
Link to Pirates depth chart
Link to Jason’s spring Pirates preview
Link to Jason on Keller
Link to Jason on catching prospects
Link to Jason on strike-throwing
Link to Jason’s author archive
Link to 1979 article source
Link to Belgium gambling news
Link to David Lewis’s Twitter
Link to David Lewis’s Substack
Link to Ryan Nelson’s Twitter
Link to Dylan’s last FGA episode

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Despite three seasons until he hits free agency, the Pirates find themselves at a crossroads with Bryan Reynolds. Pittsburgh shipping out veterans as they approach lucrative paydays is a 30-year-old story, and as the team’s young(ish) star with the most service time, it’s no surprise that Reynolds would be the subject of constant, swirling rumors. He and the Pirates talked about an extension, but nothing came of it; seeking a little more clarity, the 2021 All-Star requested a trade. Luckily, unlike the Gerrit Cole situation, there hasn’t been a decisive break between player and organization, and Reynolds is still open to discussing an extension. But what kind of extension is realistic for Reynolds, and will the Pirates be able to field a contender while they have him?

Per The Athletic, the Pirates and Reynolds were about $50 million apart in their extension talks. Given that this $50 million isn’t, say, the difference between $300 and $350 million, it’s a notable separation. Pittsburgh’s offer was six years and $75 million, covering a few years of free agency; that would be the largest contract in team history, but that mostly reflects the ultra-thrifty approach of the Bucs, not some surfeit of munificence on their part. Compared to the eight-year, $70 million contract that Ke’Bryan Hayes signed, it seems downright miserly, given how far away Hayes was even from arbitration at the time.

Reynolds had a notable dropoff in play from 2021 to ’22, going from .302/.390/.522, 6.1 WAR to .262/.345/.461, 2.9 WAR, but a large chunk of that dropoff was to be expected given the pattern of what happens to players after career-best seasons. And in any case, there was never a chance the Pirates were actually going to offer him a contract consistent with the notion that he was a six-win player, because then you’re getting into Juan Soto territory. But as a three- or four-win player with a few years of arbitration remaining, it’s close enough for a deal to be plausible.

So let’s run the numbers. The current contract, a two-year deal to avoid arbitration, already covers the 2023 season, so we’ll focus the projection as an extension past this season. Read the rest of this entry »

Josh Barfield had a relatively short big league career. Now the farm director for the Arizona Diamondbacks, the 40-year-old son of 1980s outfielder Jesse Barfield played for the San Diego Padres in 2006, and for the Cleveland Indians from 2007-2009. I asked the erstwhile infielder whom he considers the most talented of his former teammates.

“I think I’d have to say Grady Sizemore,” replied Barfield. “He was ridiculously talented. He could do just about everything on the field. Probably the best player overall — the best career — was Mike Piazza, but for pure talent it would be Grady.”

Sizemore debuted with Cleveland and accumulated 27.3 WAR — — only Albert Pujols, Chase Utley, and Alex Rodriguez had more — from 2005-2008 in his age 22-25 seasons. He made three All-Star teams, won two Gold Gloves, and logged a 129 wRC+ with 107 home runs and 115 stolen bases over that four-year-stretch. A string of injuries followed, torpedoing what might have been a brilliant career. When all was said and done, Sizemore had just 29.7 WAR.

Other former teammates who stand out for Barfield were Adrian Gonzalez, Mike Cameron, and Victor Martinez, the last of whom he called the most gifted hitter of the group. Read the rest of this entry »

Termarr Johnson and Endy Rodriguez are the top two prospects in the Pirates organization. An 18-year-old middle infielder, Johnson was drafted fourth overall by Pittsburgh last summer out of an Atlanta high school. Meanwhile, Rodriguez, a 22-year-old catcher from Santiago, Dominican Republic, was acquired by the Pirates from the Mets in the January 2021 three-team trade that included David Bednar and Joe Musgrove.

I asked Pittsburgh general manager Ben Cherington about the highly-regarded duo during November’s GM Meetings in Las Vegas.

———

David Laurila: Pirates fans and prospect nerds are quite familiar with Termarr Johnson, but a lot of fans around the country probably aren’t. What can you tell me about him?

Ben Cherington: “I think a good place to start is that he is currently in the Dominican, participating in our Dominican instructional program, which I think is a cool thing for a high first-round pick to do. It’s something that he wanted to do. Termarr wanted to go down there and be part of that experience, and to get to know potential future teammates who are young Latin players. He’s a full participant in our Dominican program.” Read the rest of this entry »

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the Pittsburgh Pirates. Scouting reports were compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as our own observations. This is the third year we’re delineating between two anticipated relief roles, the abbreviations for which you’ll see in the “position” column below: MIRP for multi-inning relief pitchers, and SIRP for single-inning relief pitchers. The ETAs listed generally correspond to the year a player has to be added to the 40-man roster to avoid being made eligible for the Rule 5 draft. Manual adjustments are made where they seem appropriate, but we use that as a rule of thumb.

A quick overview of what FV (Future Value) means can be found here. A much deeper overview can be found here.

All of the ranked prospects below also appear on The Board, a resource the site offers featuring sortable scouting information for every organization. It has more details (and updated TrackMan data from various sources) than this article and integrates every team’s list so readers can compare prospects across farm systems. It can be found here. Read the rest of this entry »

Who was better, Joe Mauer or Chase Utley? I asked that question in a Twitter poll earlier this week and the result was… well, lopsided. The erstwhile Minnesota Twins catcher/first baseman garnered 79.5% of the 1,362 votes cast, while the former Philadelphia Phillies and Los Angeles Dodgers second baseman received just 20.5%. With both debuting on next year’s Hall of Fame ballot — one that will include numerous notable holdovers — that breakdown could be telling. While it seems unlikely that Utley will join the likes of Bobby Grich and Lou Whitaker as a one-and-done snub, might he poll just as poorly, or even worse, with BBWAA voters as he did in the head-to-head matchup with Mauer?

Utley finished his career with 61.6 fWAR and 64.5 bWAR.
Mauer finished his career with 53.0 fWAR and 55.2 bWAR.

Adrián Beltré, who will also debut on the ballot, is a shoo-in to be elected in his first year of eligibility. It is much for that reason that the Mauer-Utley comparison is meaningful — at least for the segment of voters that includes yours truly. Eight of the 10 candidates I voted for this year will be returning, and Beltré is a no-brainer. That leaves one open slot. Moreover, I’m not alone in this conundrum. A total of 54 voters put checkmarks next to 10 names, with eight ballots being identical to mine. Read the rest of this entry »

The one constant this offseason is that Bryan Reynolds is probably going to get traded. We all knew this, because he’s a good player on a bad team that doesn’t look like it’s going anywhere anytime soon. Players like that get traded, or at least they get talked about as trade candidates. In December, Reynolds turned circumstantial evidence into an actual news story by requesting a trade.

A month and a half later, there’s still no movement, which isn’t really a surprise. Reynolds is under team control through 2025, and the Pirates — if they decide to move on from Reynolds at all — shouldn’t be in any rush to get rid of their best player. A couple weeks ago, Jon Heyman cited a rival executive who compared Pittsburgh’s ask for Reynolds to what the Padres gave up for Juan Soto last August.

If you’ve been around baseball, followed it, watched it, or even become generally aware that there’s a sport behind cultural idioms like “ballpark figure” and “getting to second base,” you know how this dance goes. Player requests a trade, team negotiates with rivals both privately and through leaks to reporters, a price is eventually agreed upon, and the trade is executed.

But I find this process particularly intriguing for Reynolds, because it involves determining a public consensus over how good he actually is. Read the rest of this entry »

Player Valuation Analyst

The Pirates Why

The Pittsburgh Pirates are a storied franchise in Major League Baseball who are reinventing themselves on every level. Boldly and relentlessly pursuing excellence by:

• purposefully developing a player and people-centered culture;
• deeply connecting with our fans, partners, and colleagues;
• passionately creating lifetime memories for generations of families and friends; and
• meaningfully impacting our communities and the game of baseball.

At the Pirates, we believe in the power of a diverse workforce and strive to create an inclusive culture centered in Passion, Innovation, Respect, Accountability, Teamwork, Empathy, and Service.

Job Summary

The Pittsburgh Pirates are currently seeking a full-time Analyst to join their Professional Player Valuation team. The Professional Player Valuation team is responsible for producing internal valuations of players and for communicating the insights from their research to others within Baseball Operations. In this role, you will have the ability to influence roster construction and to see the impact of your work on the field. This role will provide candidates with opportunities for growth and the ability to learn from others throughout the organization.

When you submit your application, please include an original piece of research, or a project you have worked on, that you feel is relevant to this position. There is no expectation that this research/project is baseball specific. While not essential for consideration, priority will be given to applicants who submit a sample of their work.

Primary Role Responsibilities:

• Serve as the primary analyst for a subset of the professional player population
• Collaborate with other areas of Baseball Operations on the assessment of professional players
• Assist in the building of models and tools to aid in player skill assessment discussions
• Prepare tools, visualizations, and reports to aid in disseminating information throughout Baseball Operations
• Answer research questions that you think will add value to the organization, as well as those requested by department leadership and other within Baseball Operations

Involvement In:

• Trade deadline meetings.
• Off-season strategy meetings.
• Roster management discussions.

Required:

1. Authorized to work lawfully in the United States.
2. Expertise with R, Python, or Stan
3. Ability to generate insights with testable predictions from complex data sets
4. Experience with programming data visualizations (Rshiny, Ggplot, or equivalent)
5. Demonstrated ability to explain complex models and ideas clearly and succinctly
6. Proficiency in SQL to perform data manipulation with an understanding or relational database structures
7. An understanding of skill-acquisition and development concepts and their applications

Desired:

1. Strong interpersonal skills to communicate effectively with a wide range of individuals throughout the Baseball Operations department
2. Passion for learning, especially in areas outside of individual expertise
3. Ability to apply insights from external fields to baseball. Examples include, but are not limited to, computer science, kinesiology, machine-learning, physics, or psychology
4. Initiative to seek out and perform research on topics of personal interest

To Apply:
To apply, please follow this link.

The content in this posting was created and provided solely by the Pittsburgh Pirates.