Nick Loftin could get away with covering the entire plate against high school and college hurlers. That’s far harder to do in pro ball, which is why the 23-year-old Kansas City Royals prospect — per the tutelage of the organization’s hitting instructors — is now dialing in on pitches that can he do more damage on. The message he’s been receiving is pretty straightforward: Look for something in a certain zone, and when you get it, don’t miss it.

The dictum is simple; the execution is anything but. Not when you’re facing pitchers who are throwing high-90s heaters and breaking balls that are cutting and diving in either direction.

“It’s easier said than done,” admitted Loftin, whom the Royals drafted 32nd overall in 2020 out of Baylor University. “Hitting a baseball is one of the hardest things to do — besides hitting a golf ball. That’s really hard to do, as well.”

Wait. A golf ball isn’t moving unpredictably at great speed. Rather, it’s just sitting there, motionless, ready to be struck at the swinger’s leisure. For someone with the athleticism to play shortstop and centerfield in professional baseball, squaring up an immobile object should be as easy as pie.

Not necessarily. Read the rest of this entry »

It arrived stressfully, chaotically, and slightly late, but the 2022 season is here. And that means it’s time for one last important sabermetric ritual: the final ZiPS projected standings that will surely come back and haunt me multiple times as the season progresses.

The methodology I’m using here isn’t identical to the one we use in our Projected Standings, so there will naturally be some important differences in the results. So how does ZiPS calculate the season? Stored within ZiPS are the first through 99th percentile projections for each player. I start by making a generalized depth chart, using our Depth Charts as an initial starting point. Since these are my curated projections, I make changes based on my personal feelings about who will receive playing time, as filtered by arbitrary whimsy my logic and reasoning. ZiPS then generates a million versions of each team in Monte Carlo fashion — the computational algorithms, that is (no one is dressing up in a tuxedo and playing baccarat like James Bond).

After that is done, ZiPS applies another set of algorithms with a generalized distribution of injury risk, which change the baseline PAs/IPs selected for each player. Of note is that higher-percentile projections already have more playing time than lower-percentile projections before this step. ZiPS then automatically “fills in” playing time from the next players on the list (proportionally) to get to a full slate of plate appearances and innings.

The result is a million different rosters for each team and an associated winning percentage for each of those million teams. After applying the new strength of schedule calculations based on the other 29 teams, I end up with the standings for each of the million seasons. This is actually much less complex than it sounds. Read the rest of this entry »

Toronto Blue Jays pitching prospect Hagen Danner is a converted catcher who gets good ride on his four-seam fastball, and he attributes that quality to his former position. Hearing that from the 23-year-old right-hander prompted me to ask Philadelphia Phillies manager Joe Girardi if what I was told made sense.

“I can definitely see that,” said Girardi, who caught for 15 big-league seasons. “But I don’t think it’s a guarantee; some [catchers] have a little tail to their ball when they throw. At times, I would have a little tail. But [Garrett] Stubbs really gets underneath it, really gets that spin. There are a lot of catchers who do. It’s how we’re taught to throw.”

Good ride typically comes with a four-seam grip, but unlike pitchers, a catcher isn’t standing on a mound with ample time to manipulate the baseball in his hand; he has to receive the ball, make the transfer, and get rid of it as quickly as possible. I asked the catcher-turned-manager about that as well.

“You don’t have time to get the grip, but ideally you want to throw it straight,” said Girardi. “And you can still throw it straight, pretty much, if you don’t have a perfect four-seam grip.”

Detroit Tigers manager A.J. Hinch is likewise a former catcher, so I asked him the same questions I’d asked Girardi. Read the rest of this entry »

Zack Greinke is coming full circle. On Wednesday, the 38-year-old righthander agreed to a one-year contract with the Royals, the team that drafted him in 2002 and stayed with him through low points and high over the course of seven big-league seasons (2004–10), the pinnacle of which was his AL Cy Young award win in ’09. The Greinke deal headlined a busy day for the Royals, who additionally swapped lefties with the Reds, sending 34-year-old starter Mike Minor and cash to Cincinnati in exchange for 29-year-old reliever Amir Garrett.

Via the New York Post’s Joel Sherman, Greinke’s deal guarantees him $13 million, with an additional $2 million in potential bonuses based on innings pitched. Despite the Royals coming off a 74-win season and not looking much stronger for 2022 (though our Playoff Odds give them a 10.7% chance of joining the expanded party), Greinke had this destination in mind. Via MLB.com’s Anne Rogers:

Greinke on the #Royals: "This was a team I singled out that I wanted to play for. It was my No. 1 choice. The only thing that would have made it a little tough is if pitchers were still allowed to hit. That would have opened up a lot of teams I would want to play for in the NL."

— Anne Rogers (@anne__rogers) March 17, 2022

Though he helped the Astros reach the World Series for the second time in less than three full seasons in Houston, Greinke had an uneven 2021 campaign. Prior to landing on the COVID-19 injured list in early September, he led the AL in innings pitched, though he struggled upon returning; his ERA went up more than half a run, and he wound up finishing 11th with 179 innings. His overall 4.16 ERA was his highest mark since 2016, his first year with the Diamondbacks after signing a six-year, $206.5 million deal, but more jarring was his 4.71 FIP, the worst mark of his career.

While Greinke was typically stingy with walks, posting the AL’s second-lowest rate among qualifiers (5.2%), his 1.58 homers per nine allowed was the AL’s second-highest mark and the highest of his career since his 2004 rookie season. Meanwhile, his 17.2% strikeout rate and 12.1% strikeout-walk differential were his worst marks since 2005 (I’m throwing out his three-appearance 2006 for all of these comparisons). Read the rest of this entry »

The Royals have a wave of strong position player prospects that look like they’re ready to make their debuts as early as 2022, led by the No. 2 player on our Top 100 list, Bobby Witt Jr., as well as MJ Melendez, Nick Pratto, and Vinnie Pasquantino. All four of those players carry a 50 FV or higher and could form a formidable young core in Kansas City for years to come.

Amidst all the hype over those four prospects, it would be understandable if you forgot about Kyle Isbel, who turned a fantastic spring training last year into a starting role in the Royals’ Opening Day lineup. While he didn’t have the prospect ceiling of Witt or the rest of that quartet, he did rank fifth on the 2021 edition of Kansas City’s prospect list with a 45 FV. But after starting off his major league career with five hits in his first two games, Isbel collected just four more across ten more appearances and was optioned down to Triple-A on April 22.

A rookie with a strong spring and a flash-in-the-pan debut who struggles to follow up on his early success isn’t an uncommon storyline, and it’s not surprising given Isbel’s lack of experience. A 2018 draftee out of UNLV, he had only played in just 123 minor league games and only reached High-A before making his debut. The canceled 2020 minor league season had a huge impact on that lack of experience, though he did play at the Royals’ alternate site.

Isbel’s first taste of Triple-A didn’t exactly go well either, as he struggled to a .220/.316/.360 line and a 84 wRC+ through his first 50 games there. But he managed to acclimate and adjust: Over his next 55 games in Triple-A, he slashed .320/.399/.531 (148 wRC+), bopping nine home runs and walking in more than 10% of his plate appearances. His rediscovered production at the plate earned him a second stint in the majors; he was recalled on September 12 and he posted a 138 wRC+ across 16 games down the stretch. Read the rest of this entry »

Tuesday marks the 83rd day of the owner-initiated lockout. It still remains to be seen how long it will last, but whatever its length, we’re likely to see a whirlwind of a mini-offseason as soon as the league and the players come to terms on a new collective bargaining agreement. While that kind of thing is fun to cover — the week before the lockout was a thrilling frenzy — there’s still quite a lot for baseball to do. So let’s roll up our sleeves, lend a hand, and find some new homes for a few of the remaining free agents. The trick here is that they actually have to make at least a lick of sense for the team signing them — but just a lick.

We gave out a half-billion of fictional dollars to hitters last time, but our imaginations could use some pitching too, so let’s get cracking! Read the rest of this entry »

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Kansas City Royals.

Batters

Let’s start with the good news first: Kansas City’s offense has several very interesting offensive players in the high minors. Then there’s the bad news: Kansas City’s offense has several very interesting offensive players in the high minors. That Bobby Witt Jr. projects well is not a surprise, but Nick Pratto, MJ Melendez, and Vinnie Pasquantino all crushed the feckless assortment of minor league pitchers they faced, and you have to feel much better about the long-term outlook of all three in the majors. How does this quartet of young players transition from terrorizing minor leaguers and start threatening major league ones? That’s a trickier question, given the contours of the roster.

One risk facing the Royals is that Witt plays third base, with Nicky Lopez remaining the shortstop. This would the same mistake that the Orioles made some years ago with Manny Machado and J.J. Hardy; for a handful of runs, the team would needlessly be lowering the ceiling on a franchise player. Baltimore had the excuse of being a good team in a tough division, in which absolutely maximizing wins had a great deal of value. Not giving Witt every opportunity to be a foundational talent at shortstop so that the Royals can be a .480 team instead of a .478 one doesn’t feel like it has the same upside. In five years, he could be their Carlos Correa. In five years, the Rockies will be paying Lopez $10 million a year to put up 1.1 WAR and block the latest iteration of Brendan Rodgers or Ryan McMahon. Read the rest of this entry »

Carlos Cortes might be the most-unique player available in the upcoming Rule 5 draft. A 24-year-old multi-positional player whom the New York Mets took in the third round of the 2018 draft out of the University of South Carolina, Cortes is ambidextrous. When stationed at second base, he throws right-handed. When patrolling the outfield, he throws from his natural left side.

The both-ways ability dates back to his formative years in the Orlando area.

“When I was around eight years old, my dad told me that my chances of playing a position would increase if I was able to throw right-handed,” explained Cortes, who currently stands 5-foot-7. “I didn’t really like it at first — he kind of forced me to do it — but by the time I got to high school, I was pretty natural with it. I caught my first couple years, then played second my junior and senior years, as well as in the outfield. I kind of played everywhere.”

Everywhere included the mound. Throwing left-handed, Cortes sat comfortably in the high-80s and became Lake Howell High School’s closer in his final prep season. Then came his collegiate experience. Eschewing the opportunity to sign with the Mets as a 20th-round pick in 2016, Cortes proceeded to play primarily in the outfield with the Gamecocks, putting up a .906 OPS along the way. Read the rest of this entry »

Episode 949

This week on the podcast, we learn a lot about Kansas City’s farm system before a chat about potential moves before the 40-man roster deadline.

• To kick things off, David Laurila welcomes Drew Saylor, hitting coordinator for the Kansas City Royals. Saylor shares his journey to the position, and what it was like to begin the job just before a very challenging and strange 2020 season. We also get an inside perspective on a number of promising players who could make an impact with the big league club before long, including Bobby Witt Jr., MJ Melendez, Nick Pratto, Nathan Eaton, Seuly Matias, and more. [2:09]
• In the second half, RosterResource guru Jason Martinez is joined by lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen to discuss the 40-man roster deadline. There are a number of players around the league who teams must add to the 40-man roster to protect them from the Rule 5 draft this winter, which also unfortunately means some players will be designated for assignment to make room. Jason and Eric go over some of the more obvious transactions they expect to happen as well as a few intriguing players who might catch a team’s eye if left up for grabs. [31:58]

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Last week, veteran reliever Joakim Soria hung up his spikes. In his typically understated fashion, he didn’t so much as announce his retirement as have it done for him, through his agent and a Ken Rosenthal tweet.

Soria was a two-time All-Star. He pitched for nine teams during his 14-year career, racking up 15.4 WAR and 229 saves, alongside a tidy 3.11 earned run average. In his first spell with the Royals, Soria established himself as one of the sport’s premier closers and was a bright spot on several forgettable Kansas City teams. He never quite recaptured that early-career form after an elbow injury in 2012, though he remained a dependable late-inning reliever for most of the last decade.

For all his success, Soria’s unusual path to stardom remains perhaps the most notable part of his career. Born to schoolteachers in Monclova, Soria grew up in Mexico. He signed with Los Angeles as a teenager, but pitched only four times for the Dodgers, all in the AZL back in 2002. After going two seasons without appearing in a game, Los Angeles released Soria in 2004 and he spent all of the 2005 season in the Mexican League. After posting solid but hardly spectacular numbers, San Diego took a flier on him. He only threw 11 innings in Low-A that next summer, though, and the Padres understandably left him off of their 40-man roster. Read the rest of this entry »