Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the Minnesota Twins. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from our own (both Eric Longenhagen’s and Kiley McDaniel’s) observations. For more information on the 20-80 scouting scale by which all of our prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this.

All the numbered prospects here also appear on THE BOARD, a new feature at the site that offers sortable scouting information for every organization. Click here to visit THE BOARD.

55 FV Prospects

Lewis was one of the best players on the summer showcase circuit in 2016, showing a rare combo of hit, power, and speed tools, though it was unclear if he fit better in the infield or center field. He had an up-and-down spring for his high school, with contact concerns caused by some mechanical changes, but he finished strong and the raw tools were still there, helping him go No. 1 overall in a year without a clear-cut top prospect.

Read the rest of this entry »

When Matt Harvey burst onto the scene in 2012 — yes, it has been six years — there was every reason to believe he was destined to lead the long-maligned Mets back to the promised land. Over a 10-start camero, he struck out 28.6% of the batters he faced, good for nearly eleven strikeouts per nine innings. And while he walked more than 10% of his opponents, the future seemed limitless: Eno Sarris wrote before the 2013 season that “Yu Darvish might be his floor.”

Then Harvey went out and blew the doors off Queens in 2013.

However good you remember Harvey being in 2013, he was probably better. His ERA? It was 2.27. His FIP? Even lower than that. He cut his walk rate down to 4.5% while preserving his strikeouts (27.7%). He recorded an average velocity of 95.8 mph with his fastball, which was an incredible 30 runs above average. But his slider, and curveball, and changeup were all plus pitches, too, which is what has to happen to be 50% better than league average.

In the 2013 campaign, Harvey accrued 6.5 WAR in just 178.1 innings. To understand that in context, consider that, last year, Clayton Kershaw threw 175 innings and accrued 4.6 WAR. The mighty Noah Syndergaard was worse in 2016 than Harvey was in 2013. Harvey was, in 2013, the best pitcher in baseball.

Then Harvey tore his UCL and needed Tommy John surgery, forcing him to miss all of 2014. Still, Derek Ambrosino wrote before the 2014 season that “there isn’t a great reason to worry that he won’t regain form as soon as he regains health” — and, a year later, before his return, Eno called him a “top-15 pitcher” even with the uncertainty of the surgery.

Matt Harvey circa 2015 wasn’t the same pitcher he was in 2013, but you would be forgiven for thinking otherwise. After the All-Star break that year, Harvey posted a 25.7% K rate, a 3.6% walk rate, a 48.6% ground-ball rate, a 2.28 FIP, and a 7.18 K/BB. In other words, post-TJ Matt Harvey in 2015 looked an awful lot like prime Cliff Lee.

Then the postseason happened, and the World Series happened.

Read the rest of this entry »

Two thousand hits is not 3,000, and yet there was plenty of reason to celebrate Joe Mauer reaching that milestone on Thursday night at Target Field via a two-run single against the White Sox. If nothing else, it shores up the 35-year-old catcher-turned-first baseman’s case for Cooperstown, because 2,000 hits has functioned as a bright-line test for Hall of Fame voters for the past several decades. Neither the BBWAA nor the various small committees has elected a position player with fewer than 2,000 hits whose career crossed into the post-1960 expansion era, no matter their merits.

Just 34 of the 157 position players in the Hall for their major-league playing careers (including Monte Ward, who made a mid-career conversion from the mound to shortstop) have fewer than 2,000 hits, and only 11 of them even played in the majors past World War II:

Eight of the 11 players on that list had substantial career interruptions that contributed to their falling short of the milestone. Dickey, Gordon, Greenberg, Kiner, and Rizzuto all lost multiple seasons to military service, while Campanella, Doby, and Robinson were prevented from playing in the majors due to the presence of the color line, which fell on April 15, 1947 (71 years ago this Sunday) with Robinson’s debut. Of the other three, Ferrell and Lombardi were constrained by spending their whole careers as catchers; the former, a two-time batting champion, was classified as 4-F by the time the war rolled around, while the latter, one of the Hall’s lightest-hitting catchers (and the lowest-ranked in JAWS), was too old for the draft.

Read the rest of this entry »

The trend in baseball is unmistakably one towards shorter starts. Pitchers compiled the fewest complete games in major-league history last year. That beat a record-low mark set the previous season, which itself had beaten a record-low established the year before that. Relievers are throwing a higher percentage of innings the ever before. Starters are, by definition, throwing fewer. The 200-inning starter is disappearing.

If his actions from this past weekend are any indication, Minnesota’s Jose Berrios seems not to care for this development. On Sunday, the young right-hander pitched a shutout, going the full nine innings while fanning six batters and conceding just three hits — and only of them prior to the ninth inning. (I’m not sure if I’m obligated to mention the Chance Sisco bunt against the shift and Brian Dozier’s odd reaction, but please consider this parenthetical as fulfillment of that obligation.) For a Twins team hoping to repeat the successes of last season, a lot hinges on the success of Berrios. He and the team got off to an awfully good start in their series win over the Baltimore Orioles.

Before getting to Berrios’s start, here is another reminder about how the game of baseball has changed over the years, particularly when it comes to bullpen use and expectations for starting pitchers. The graph below shows the number of shutouts by year since the advent of the designated hitter in 1973.

Just 25 years ago, there was pretty close to a shutout per day during the MLB regular season. A combination of expansion and the PED era greatly increased the use of relief pitchers. Coupled with increased offense, it was incredibly difficult for a starter to navigate a full game without letting the opposition score. In the early part of the last decade, as scoring decreased, we would still see a shutout every two or three days. As offense has again risen the last few years, however, shutouts have dropped — to about one per week last season.

Read the rest of this entry »

Ben Lindbergh and Jeff Sullivan banter about the Eugenio Suarez and Jose Altuve extensions, whether this offseason’s slow free-agent market will make players more likely to sign extensions, the industry’s latest effort to avoid paying minor leaguers, and the debate about where Shohei Ohtani should start the season, then preview the 2018 Twins (18:52) with Baseball Prospectus’s Aaron Gleeman, and the 2018 Rangers (56:45) with The Athletic DFW’s Levi Weaver.

Read the rest of this entry »

Podcast (effectively-wild): Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS

To the overwhelming majority of baseball fans, the name Willians Astudillo means nothing. The 26-year-old has never been called up to the majors, and for three years in a row now, he’s elected free agency and signed a minor-league contract. Astudillo is there in spring training right now, but so are countless professional players you’d never recognize at the next table in a restaurant. Most people don’t know Willians Astudillo. Most people will never know Willians Astudillo. But there are those out there who know exactly who he is. Astudillo has a claim to being the single most interesting player in the minors.

Astudillo has yet to strike out this spring. Over the winter he batted 223 times in Venezuela, and he struck out on just four occasions. He struck out less often than a teammate who came to the plate just eight times. This is the Astudillo story. Out of the thousands of players in the minors in 2017, Astudillo had the third-lowest strikeout rate, and the lowest strikeout rate in Triple-A. He had the lowest strikeout rate in the minors in 2016. He had the lowest strikeout rate in the minors in 2015. He had the second-lowest strikeout rate in the minors in 2014. He apparently didn’t play in 2013, but in 2012, and in 2011, and in 2010, he had the lowest strikeout rate in the minors. Astudillo doesn’t strike out. Astudillo also doesn’t walk, and he has a limited track record of hitting for power, but he doesn’t strike out. As a professional, Astudillo has 67 strikeouts in 2,154 plate appearances. Joey Gallo recorded his 67th major-league strikeout in his 140th plate appearance.

For his ability to make contact alone, Astudillo has won himself some fans. But now, he also has another claim to fame. Although Astudillo has moved around, he is still considered a catcher. And, the other day, in a spring game, he picked off Shane Robinson without looking.

Read the rest of this entry »

The Minnesota Twins continued a productive offseason over the weekend, signing Lance Lynn to a bargain-rate one-year, $12 million deal. Lynn turned down a $17.4 million qualifying offer from the Cardinals in November. He also reportedly turned down higher guarantees from other teams, per Jon Morosi. 

Not clear regarding those other offers is whether the average annual values of the contracts would have been equivalent or if Lynn would have had to forfeit the opportunity to explore free agency next offseason in exchange for a few extra million dollars. Whatever the case, it appears as though Lance Lynn will have to try his hand at free agency next winter if his ambition is to find a long-term home.

As for the Twins, they get great value on a player seemingly overlooked by the market. Indeed, the club seems to have specialized in this sort of deal over the winter. Heading into the offseason, for example, the crowd believed Addison Reed was in line for $27 million, the third-highest guarantee among relievers behind only the figures estimated for Wade Davis and Greg Holland. Reed ultimately agreed to join the Twins for just $16.75 million in mid-January — or less than the overall deals received by seven other relievers who’d signed at that point in the offseason.

The addition of Logan Morrison represents another instance in which the Twins have taken advantage of a slow market. The crowd expected Morrison to sign for $20 million. At the end of February, however, Derek Falvey et al. signed him for just one-third that amount.

Finally, there’s Lynn. Projected by the crowd to receive $60 million over four seasons, the right-hander settled for 20% of that figure. When the offseason began, it was reasonable to think that the Twins would need to guarantee $107 million to acquire all three players mentioned here. With just $35.25 million, though, the club signed the trio at a rate discounted by 67% from initial estimates.

The Twins’ bargain-shopping was not limited to free agency: the team also took on Jake Odorizzi and his $6.3 million salary in exchange for a prospect of little significance. Odorizzi went to the Twins not because of their willingness to provide Tampa Bay with considerable talent but because they were willing to pay his salary.

There are some logical explanations for the Twins’ apparent good fortune. For example, all the players acquired by the club come with significant question marks, and none are currently projected to provide more than two wins this season. That said, each possesses some kind of upside and a relatively recent track record of success. The combined five wins the club is projected to receive will cost just $33 million in 2018 salaries. Given the recent cost of wins on the free-agent market, the Twins’ efficiency should be lauded. More important than getting a good deal, though, they have also obtained solid major leaguers at areas of need.

Read the rest of this entry »

Since Byron Buxton arrived in the majors, observers have wondered if he’s going to hit. The concern there is valid, but it also misses the point, because Byron Buxton is already special. He’s already a better hitter than Billy Hamilton is, and if the bat moves further along, the Twins will have a superstar. Yet even with Buxton as what he presently is, he’s the envy of many opponents. The non-hitting skills are where Buxton stands out.

He’s a clear Statcast favorite, because of his league-leading sprint speed, and because of his league-leading outs above average. Buxton’s in the conversation for the most valuable defender on the planet, and Twins pitchers have basically given him credit for saving their most recent season. That speed, though, also helps elsewhere. According to our metric, Buxton was 2017’s most valuable baserunner. He ranked third in baseball in stolen-base value, fifth in double-play value, and seventh in all the rest. Buxton, of course, relies on his speed. But he also benefits from good baseball instincts and big-league experience. Buxton just ran with more confidence than ever, and his baserunning season was just about perfect. I’ll tell you what I mean.

Read the rest of this entry »

In December, Twins slugger Miguel Sano was accused of violently assaulting a photographer, Betsy Bissen. Sano has unequivocally denied the allegations. But the report of the incident led to an investigation by Major League Baseball under the “Joint Domestic Violence, Sexual Assault and Child Abuse Policy” and “Joint Treatment Program for Alcohol-Related and Off-Field Violent Conduct” in the CBA. On February 27, as part of that investigation, Major League Baseball investigators interviewed Sano for four hours.

The entire process has set off something of a free-for-all on the internet, with people taking sides between Sano and his accuser, throwing around terms like “sexual assault” and “due process.” Under such fraught circumstances, however, precision in one’s language is ideal. So let’s try to clear up some of the confusion.

There’s been a debate regarding whether Sano has been accused of sexual assault, simple assault, or something else entirely. Again, this is not to say that Sano is guilty of any offense. However, it’s probably worth asking the question: assuming Sano actually did what he is accused of, what law would it violate? As for the answer, it really depends upon the state in which the incident has occurred, because there is actually a pretty big disparity between states as to what constitutes a sexual assault.

In this case, we’re looking at Minnesota law. I’m a civil litigation attorney, not a criminal attorney, and we’re dealing with issues here where it’s really important to get the law right. So I spoke with a Minnesota private criminal defense attorney, Erica E. Davis, Esq. from Davis and Egberg, PLLC in Minneapolis, to get her thoughts.

Davis believes, at the very least, that Sano “could clearly be charged” with misdemeanor assault. Under Minnesota law, “assault” is “(1) an act done with intent to cause fear in another of immediate bodily harm or death; or (2) the intentional infliction of or attempt to inflict bodily harm upon another.” Here, we’d probably be talking about misdemeanor assault in the fifth degree under Minn. Stat. § 609.224. Davis said that, for purposes of this statute, if we assume the allegations are true, Sano “clearly caused [Bissen] bodily harm.” She emphasized Bissen’s allegations that her wrist hurt the next day and that she repeatedly told Sano she didn’t want to go with him.

Read the rest of this entry »

Position: Baseball Systems Developer

Description:
The Minnesota Twins are seeking a Full Stack Software Developer to join the Baseball Research and Development group. This position offers wide-ranging exposure to current programming methods and frameworks in a fast-paced agile environment. With creativity and passion, this candidate will collaborate with the Baseball Operations staff to develop, deliver, and maintain data driven solutions for player evaluation, player development, and leading-edge baseball research. This position requires strong full stack web development skills and experience as well as a demonstrated ability for independent curiosity and a commitment to excellence while working within a team framework. Strong communication and interpersonal skills will enable the candidate to enjoy direct relationships with product users.

Essential Functions:

• Work closely with all groups within the Baseball Department including Baseball Operations, Scouting, Coaching, and Player Development to develop, maintain, and expand strategic web and mobile baseball applications.
• Design and develop web services and APIs to be consumed by web and mobile applications.
• Create easy to understand interfaces and reports with data visualizations that showcase data and analysis in a creative and effective way for a variety of different users and use cases.
• Use an agile software development approach for quick roll-outs combined with incremental improvement process to existing systems and environments.
• Work closely with Infrastructure team to ensure secure, scalable, and high-performing applications.
• Provide courteous and timely first-level contact and problem resolution for all Baseball Department users with application issues.

Technical Qualifications:

• Bachelor’s Degree in Computer Science, Computer Engineering, or a related field or equivalent work experience.
• Software development experience, including requirements definition, design, development, testing, implementation, and iterative improvement.
• Full stack experience with Angular, JavaScript/TypeScript, HTML, CSS, .NET, ASP.NET, Entity Framework, C#, and API design patterns preferred.
• Experience with SQL, relational databases, and database design.
• Familiarity with data visualization and graphical packages such as Tableau, Power BI, D3.js, or ggplot is a plus.
• Mobile development experience a plus.
• Strong work ethic, initiative, and problem-solving skills.
• Interest in optimizing user experience through effective UI/UX design.
• Understand software development best practices and long-term maintainability of code.
• Strong curiosity and interest in researching and learning new technologies as needed.

Requirements:

• 2-5+ years of relevant work experience.
• Knowledge of baseball player evaluation techniques and concepts.
• Ability to relocate to the Twins Cities area.

To Apply:
To apply visit www.twinsbaseball.com/jobopportunities and look for the Baseball Systems Developer position.