Royce Lewis returned from the injured list on Tuesday to start the Twins’ postseason run. He hadn’t played in a game since September 19 due to a hamstring strain, and it wasn’t completely clear if he would be activated for the series. It’s a decision not without risk. Rushing a player back from a hamstring strain can be suspect, and Lewis’ young career has been filled with health challenges. From a mechanical standpoint, hamstring strains can compromise how you interact with the ground and cause compensations up the kinetic chain.

Given how important every at-bat is in the playoffs, there’s very little room for error. But while Lewis still may not be able to get into a full sprint, that doesn’t matter so much if you’re trotting around the base paths. In his first two at-bats of his playoff career, he took Kevin Gausman yard for two no-doubt home runs, leading the Twins to a 3–1 victory over Toronto and their first postseason win since 2004. Read the rest of this entry »

The playoffs start today, and we are going to cover every single game, from the Wild Card round to the World Series. But those games are played by humans, and those humans have to find a way to avoid murdering each other over the course of a very long season. Inventing goofy celebrations is a good way to inject some fun into the proceedings. This article and its National League counterpart break down how each playoff team celebrates when a player reaches base or the team notches a victory. (I’m going to skip the home run celebrations because they’ve already been covered very thoroughly, and because they’re sure to get plenty of camera time as October unfolds.) The point of this article is to help you enjoy the smaller celebrations that might otherwise go unnoticed.

One important note: This is necessarily an incomplete list. I spent a lot of time looking, but I wasn’t able to track down the origin of every single celebration. When you search for information about a team’s celebration, you have to wade through an ocean of articles about the night they clinched a playoff berth. The declining functionality of Twitter (now known as X) also made it harder to find relevant information by searching for old tweets (now known as florps). When I couldn’t find the truth about a celebration’s backstory, I either gave it my best guess or invented the most entertaining backstory I could think of. If you happen to know the real story behind a particular celebration, or if you’d like to share your own absurd conjectures, please post them in the comments. Read the rest of this entry »

The Minnesota Twins and a short first round playoff series: Name a more iconic duo. The Twins have been quietly excellent this year, compiling the seventh-best run differential in baseball. To be sure, some of that is because they have the good fortune of facing fellow AL Central clubs, but a lot of it is because their team is full of good pitchers. They’ll meet the Toronto Blue Jays in a Wild Card clash. You’ve probably watched and heard a lot about the Blue Jays this year, and I’ll get to them, but let’s start with the thing you probably most need to hear: The Twins are good, not just the token AL Central representative, and they got a lot better when you probably weren’t paying attention.

The Minnesota rotation might be short on name recognition relative to some other playoff squads, but Pablo López and Sonny Gray are each top 10 pitchers by WAR this year. Joe Ryan, Kenta Maeda, and Bailey Ober are both above average as well – Ryan will likely draw the third start, but the other two will surely be available to relieve him if necessary. They’re one of those classic playoff tropes, the team you hate to face because so much of their value is concentrated in good pitching. López has gone six or more innings while allowing one or fewer runs 11 times this year; Gray has done it nine times himself. It’s easy to imagine the Jays coming into Minneapolis and leaving with very few runs to show for their trip. Read the rest of this entry »

Kenta Maeda has had a stellar career on two continents. Now in his seventh big league season — three with the Minnesota Twins preceded by four with the Los Angeles Dodgers — the 35-year-old erstwhile Hiroshima Carp has a 2.95 ERA and a 162-115 won-lost record between NPB and MLB. He’s been as good as ever in September. The Osaka native has been credited with a win in each of his last three decisions while allowing just four runs over 17-and-two-thirds innings. When he next takes the mound it will be with a 4.28 ERA and a 3.96 FIP on the year.

Maeda discussed his evolution as a pitcher, and offered some thoughts on NPB, when the postseason-bound Twins visited Cleveland earlier this month. Daichi Sekizaki served as an interpreter for the interview.

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David Laurila: How much have you changed as a pitcher since coming over from Japan?

Kenta Maeda: “The first couple of years I was pretty much just myself; I was the same pitcher that I was in Japan. After pitching here for several years, I know what the different hitters’ weaknesses are and when they are getting on to me. I ironed some things out and made adjustments to become better, to become the pitcher that I am today.” Read the rest of this entry »

Gavin Williams came as advertised when I saw him pitch earlier this month. The 24-year-old rookie right-hander’s fastball topped out at 99.3 mph, while his slider sat in the mid-80s and occasionally topped 90. Allowing one hit and a lone run over five rain-delayed innings against the Minnesota Twins, Williams was all about power.

He also came as advertised when I spoke to him on the day preceding his outing. I was told that the 6-foot-6, 255-pound Cleveland Guardians hurler is a man of few words, and that was pretty much the case. While accommodating, Williams was anything but verbose. No matter. I largely got what I was looking for: a self-appraisal of what he brings to the table.

“Most people know me for my fastball, really,” the righty replied when I asked for a self scouting report. “That’s the main thing people know me as, and it’s what I know myself as.”

The Fayetteville, North Carolina native first hit triple digits during his freshman year at East Carolina University, and as meaningful as that milestone was to his identity on the mound, he recognizes that retiring big-league hitters takes more than pure velocity.

“I don’t think 96 to 100 is that big of a difference,” Williams said. “If it’s down the middle it can get hit. Putting it where you want to is a bigger thing. It also matters how it moves.” Read the rest of this entry »

Last Wednesday, in a piece titled “Royce Lewis Has Arrived in Grand Fashion,” Jay Jaffe noted that the Minnesota Twins third baseman had “clubbed his third grand slam in an eight-game span” in the team’s contest against the Cleveland Guardians that Monday. My colleague added that, per the Elias Sports Bureau and MLB.com’s Sarah Langs, Lewis joined Lou Gehrig, Jim Northrup, and Larry Parrish as the only player in MLB history to “bunch three such hits so closely.”

Lewis has done more than hit grannies. Since making his big league debut last season, the first overall pick in the 2017 draft has slashed a healthy .310/.355/.541 with 14 home runs and a 147 wRC+ over 245 plate appearances. Staying on the field had been an issue. As our lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen wrote in June, “Lewis’ career has been marred by persistent injury.” But as Longenhagen noted, “He is back and ready to make an immediate impact on Minnesota’s playoff push.”

I was in Cleveland for last week’s Guardians-Twins series, and thus was present for Lewis’ 3-for-4, six-RBI, grand slam performance. Prior to the game, I sat down with the red-hot rookie to talk hitting. Read the rest of this entry »

The Baltimore Orioles have the best record in the American League, and youthful talent is a big reason why. Gunnar Henderson is the odds-on favorite to capture Rookie-of-the-Year honors, while Adley Rutschman has already reached star status in just his second MLB season. The dynamic duo are the first-place team’s co-leaders in WAR.

They aren’t the only players making an impact. The well-balanced Mike Elias-constructed club has also received meaningful contributions from the likes of Anthony Santander, Ryan Mountcastle, and Austin Hays. On the pitching side, a mix of veterans and less-established arms have more than held their own, in some cases outperforming expectations. From the better-known to the lesser-known, a multitude of players have played important roles in the 90-wins-and-counting success.

With that in mind, who has been the most-underrated player on the 2023 Orioles? I asked that question to four people who see the squad on an everyday basis — two broadcasters and a pair of beat writers — prior to yesterday’s game at Fenway Park.

Nathan Ruiz, who covers the team for the Baltimore Sun, chose Danny Coulombe.

“A lot was made of the All-Star combo of Yennier Cano and Felix Bautista, but Coulombe has come in and kind of been that main left-handed reliever all season,” said Ruiz. “He’s been really good with inherited runners, which is something they have generally struggled with. Cionel Pérez was really good for them last year, but they felt they needed another lefty so they acquired him [from the Minnesota Twins] for cash around the cusp of the season and he became a solid piece for them right away. He’s been dependable at the back end of the bullpen.”

Melanie Newman went with Kyle Bradish.

“He’s got an ERA that’s sitting there with Gerrit Cole right now,” the Orioles broadcaster opined. “We all talk about Yennier Cano and Felix Bautista, and our back end — what they’ve been able to do so far — but Kyle has been consistent. For whatever reason, when we’re on the road in a big spot, those are his best moments. That’s what you want out of a guy, and you forget that he’s only in his second year. His breaking pitches are disgusting. I don’t think he gets enough credit.”

Danielle Allentuck opted for Ryan O’Hearn.

“He has kind of been the guy who, whenever they need the big hit — he’s either coming off the bench or already in the lineup — has been providing it,” the Baltimore Banner reporter told me. “He’s been that kind of spark for them. He’s turning his career around here. We’re talking underrated, and I don’t think a lot of people know about him. He’s not the big name. He wasn’t a big superstar, but he’s come here and turned things around for himself, and the team.” Read the rest of this entry »

We haven’t seen much of Royce Lewis at the major league level yet, thanks in large part to a twice-torn anterior cruciate ligament. But what we have seen of the first pick of the 2017 draft has been impressive and, lately, otherworldly. On Monday against the Guardians, the Twins’ third baseman clubbed his third grand slam in an eight-game span, part of a longer hot streak that includes seven homers in his past 14 games.

Lewis’ latest slam came at the expense of Lucas Giolito, who was making his debut for the Guardians after being claimed off waivers from the Angels on September 1. Already down 2–0 in the second inning, Giolito was one strike away from a 1-2-3 inning when he lost the plot, issuing three walks, throwing a wild pitch, and allowing a single. That left the bases loaded for Lewis, who had already singled in the first inning. Giolito fell behind 2–0, then left Lewis a 92-mph belt-high fastball on the inner third of the plate. He hit a towering shot to left field; its 107.6-mph exit velocity was garden variety, but that 41-degree launch angle was majestic:

The slam broke the game open. Lewis would later add a two-run single off David Fry — the Guardians’ utilityman threw four innings of thankless relief — in what turned out to be a 20–6 romp. Those six RBIs gave Lewis 10 in a two-game span, as he went 3-for-5 with a three-run homer (off Jon Gray) and four runs driven in in the Twins’ 6–5 loss to the Rangers on Sunday. Only one player, the Orioles’ Ryan Mountcastle, has collected more RBIs in a two-game span this season (11 on April 10–11).

Lewis’ previous grand slams came at the expense of the Rangers’ Chris Stratton on August 27 and the Guardians’ Xzavion Curry on August 28:

The trio of salamis ties Lewis for this year’s lead alongside the Dodgers’ Max Muncy, the Astros’ Alex Bregman, and the Rangers’ Adolis García. Via the Elias Bureau and MLB.com’s Sarah Langs, he’s the first rookie with three grand slams in a span of eight games or fewer, and just the fourth player to bunch three such hits so closely, joining the Yankees’ Lou Gehrig (five games in 1931), the Tigers’ Jim Northrup (four games in 1968), and the Rangers’ Larry Parrish (eight games in 1982).

Including homers on August 23 (off the Brewers’ Corbin Burnes), August 24 (also off Stratton), and August 29 (off the Guardians’ Hunter Gaddis), Lewis is hitting .321/.400/.736 with seven homers and 22 RBI in 60 plate appearances over his last 14 games, all against the Brewers, Guardians, and Rangers. It’s a remarkable surge even from a player who has wielded a potent bat when available… but has unfortunately been rather scarce in recent years.

Recall that after reaching Double-A in 2019 and spending the following season at the Twins’ alternate training site, Lewis first tore his right ACL in February ’21 and missed the entire season. He was ready to go for the start of 2022 and bounced up and down between Triple-A St. Paul and the majors for the season’s first two months, making his major league debut on May 6 but playing just 11 games before returning to Triple-A. After another 10 games down on the farm, he returned to the majors on May 29, but three innings into what was his first major league appearance in center field, he re-tore his ACL — partially this time, not fully as in the first time — making a leaping catch at the wall and missed the rest of the season. For his time with the Twins, he hit a tantalizing .300/.317/.550 in 41 PA.

Lewis made his 2023 debut with Double-A Wichita on May 11 and, after two games, returned to St. Paul. After homering four times in eight games, he was back in Minnesota. Exactly one year after his last ACL tear, and one week before his 24th birthday, he homered off the Astros’ J.P. France in his second plate appearance, then added a game-tying single in the ninth. He played regularly at third base throughout June but strained an oblique on July 1, which sidelined him until August 15. He was hitting well before the injury, and he’s hit even better since coming back:

As you can see from those improved strikeout and walk rates, Lewis has taken a more disciplined approach since returning. He’s lowered his chase rate from 38.6% to 32.2% and his swing rate from 50.8% to 46.2%; meanwhile, his swinging-strike rate has dropped from 13.3% to 9.7%. He’s done a much better job upon reaching two strikes than before, improving from .220/.264/.280 (51 wRC+) with a 52.8% strikeout rate to .231/.333/.333 (91 wRC+) with a 33.3% strikeout rate. In late June, he spoke of adjusting his two-strike approach to a more aggressive, contact-oriented one. Via The Athletic’s Dan Hayes:

“It’s who I am,” Lewis said. “It’s just me being able to put the bat on the ball and make contact and make people do things. You’ve just got to play the game and when you strike out, no one is doing anything except for the pitcher. Honestly, I get frustrated after a while and I just go back to being like — what I said to (hitting coach David Popkins) is, ‘I’m going to turn into (Luis) Arraez today, just touch the ball. There’s a lot of grass out there.’”

…“It’s a mindset,” Lewis said. “Not waiting for a pitch you can drive because these guys are going to execute. If they dot one up on the outer third, that’s 0-1. Then they do it again, 0-2. ‘OK, great, now you’re 0-2.’ Now you’re battling and you’re looking for a pitch to drive at the same time, that doesn’t work. I looked at where some of our plans were going and how the pitchers were pitching us and they weren’t attacking us with our plan of getting a mistake. I was like, ‘Why don’t I just start being aggressive, putting the ball in play? I know I can at least touch it and go to right field.’”

Since returning, Lewis is hitting the ball in the air far more often, and harder in general:

Note that Lewis is also pulling the ball more frequently and, as that last column illustrates, has more than doubled the frequency with which he hits fly balls in the air. Five of his 11 homers have come via pulled flies, one before the injury and four since returning.

For all of that, it’s worth noting that Lewis is riding a .368 BABIP, which is higher than any batting title qualifier save for Freddie Freeman (.375). That said, 15 other players with between 150–425 PA (around enough to qualify) have higher marks, including three of Lewis’ teammates and another former number one pick whom I checked in on about six weeks ago:

When I wrote about Moniak, who’s in the midst of a breakout year with the Angels (despite a 2.8% walk rate and 34.8% strikeout rate), he had a .427 BABIP through 165 PA. Since then, through his next 151 PA, he’s produced a .365 BABIP — still incredibly high, just a bit behind Lewis, yet 72 points lower than that first stretch. That said, Julien, Solano, and Jeffers all have higher BABIPs than Lewis in at least 96 more PA, with Solano having more than twice as many PA.

It’s rare but not unheard of for so many teammates to sustain such numbers. Four other expansion-era teams have had four players with at least a .360 BABIP in 150 PA; in fact, the Twins entry in that group sustained those BABIPs through at least 350 PA for all four:

Moving beyond BABIP, Lewis is actually further ahead of his Statcast expected numbers than just about any player at the 150 PA cutoff:

Lewis has the highest wOBA-xwOBA differential by a seven-point margin, the third-largest differential in batting average, and the fourth-largest in slugging percentage. Note that the top six players in that table are all short of qualifying for the batting title; those gaps tend to shrink as the sample sizes increase.

While it’s tempting to chalk up some of the differentials to Lewis’ 76th-percentile speed, his eight hits on grounders and line drives that have stayed in the infield don’t move the needle that much, and none of his five doubles are the result of hustling to stretch singles. On the contrary, a 398-footer that he hit off the Rangers’ Andrew Heaney at Target Field on August 24 would have been a home run in 24 of the other 29 ballparks.

Even if his production is a bit beyond the bounds of sustainability, Lewis’ return has helped to shore up the Twins’ third base situation. The team made the Replacement Level Killers list ahead of the trade deadline, with Jose Miranda, Kyle Farmer, Willi Castro, and Solano combining with Lewis’ first stint to hit a meek .247/.317/.353 for a 90 wRC+ and 0.5 WAR. With Lewis making 14 of the team’s last 18 starts at third (plus four more at DH) and Jorge Polanco, Castro, and Farmer seeing time in the period between that article’s publication and Lewis’ return, the group is up to .260/.333/.388 (101 wRC+) with 1.8 WAR. The Twins have widened their AL Central lead from three games to seven since that list ran and from 4.5 games to seven since Lewis’ return. He’s just been part of the parade, as the Twins as a team have hit .275/.362/.489 since August 15, good for a 134 wRC+ (fourth in the majors) and 6.42 runs per game (third).

On a team whose biggest stars, namely Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton, have disappointed, Lewis has helped pick up the slack, and if what he’s done isn’t as sustainable as it is flashy, his in-season evolution is certainly encouraging. After three mostly lost seasons, the Twins can’t ask for much more than that.

With Instructional League underway in Arizona (casts look of disappointment toward Florida) and Fall League rosters likely about two weeks out, the time has come to line the coffers with data and re-worked scouting reports in preparation for another round of farm system audits. Especially at the up-the-middle positions, defense is both very important and also a bit of a black box for readers, as there aren’t many publicly available minor league defensive stats and so much of evaluating defense is visual. I’ve recently been working on a video deep dive on the position players currently graded as 50 FV prospects or better, specifically to evaluate their defense in detail. Here I’ve taken a pass at the shortstops, providing video supplements for the prospects who I’ve evaluated in the 55 FV tier and above. I’ve made changes to their defense and arm tool grades over on The Board as a result of this exercise, and highlight the instances where this has caused a change to the player’s overall FV grade in the analysis below.

I’ve cut the videos in such a way that you can see each shortstop making similar plays one right after another. The videos feature plays to their left where I want to see them flip their hips and throw, plays that show the extreme end of their range, backhand plays in the hole to their right, plays coming in on the grass, and double play attempts. The fewest balls in play I watched for an individual player was 36 (Colson Montgomery and Dyan Jorge) and the most was closer to 70 (Jackson Holliday, Carson Williams and Marcelo Mayer). Read the rest of this entry »

The Twins are in first place. I’m not talking about the standings, though it’s true that they’ve got a substantial lead over the Guardians in the AL Central. The Twins are in first place where it counts: on the strikeout leaderboards. Minnesota’s pitchers are striking out 25.7% of the batters they face, and Minnesota’s batters are striking out 27.2% of the time. Both of those numbers are the highest in baseball this season, and the latter is just a tenth of a percentage point off the all-time record set by the 2020 Tigers. In all, the Twins are on pace to be involved in 3,211 strikeouts, the most of all-time.

In a way, the Twins are on the cutting edge. We are living in the strikeout era, the golden age of the golden sombrero. If you sort every team offense in AL/NL history by strikeout rate, 299 of the top 300 played in this century (congratulations and apologies to the 1998 Diamondbacks). Relative to the rest of the league, the Twins aren’t close to making history; they’re just the team in first place. Their offense’s 118 K%+ pales in comparison to the 163 put up by the 1927 Yankees, to pick a notable example.

The game has been trending toward more strikeouts for as long as it’s been around, and if the Twins do end up setting an all-time record, it likely won’t last all that long. Still, we’d be remiss if we didn’t honor them for racing out ahead of the pack and playing winning baseball in the crushing maw of the strikeout apocalypse. Read the rest of this entry »