For the 21st consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the Chicago White Sox.

Batters

What can you say about Chicago’s 2024 season? The White Sox lost 121 games, which is just five fewer games than the Dodgers have lost in the last two years. If there’s good news about 2025, the team is likely to win more games — and probably quite a few more — if merely by happenstance. For a major league team to lose 120-plus games, something magical has to happen, with so much more going very, very wrong than the fates suggested was in order. I’m fairly confident the White Sox will win more games this year than last, and ZiPS projects a 20-win improvement, which would be quite impressive for most teams.

But is that a good thing? Looking at the lineup as it currently stands, I’m not quite so sure. One of the amazing things about the 2024 White Sox is that they didn’t enter the season looking to dramatically rebuild. As far as I can tell, this was a franchise that thought it was a going to be at least mildly competitive in a weak division. But when you look at the current depth chart, it doesn’t really resemble what you’d expect to see from an organization drastically changing directions. The Sox have added some competent role players, but they’re older types who are best cast as capable contributors on a good team, not starters on a team trying to build on ruin. Josh Rojas, Mike Tauchman, and Austin Slater can bolster a contender, but if any of them get the playing time they’re currently allotted on our Depth Charts, it suggests a team without any ideas. A third year of Andrew Benintendi starting doesn’t do much to disspell that impression, and if Andrew Vaughn actually has any upside remaining, it doesn’t like seem the White Sox have any idea of how to find it. Read the rest of this entry »

Charlie Morton met with the Baltimore media over Zoom a few days ago, and as would be expected, the 41-year-old right-hander was equal parts thoughtful and engaging. That’s who Morton is. Much for that reason, I made it a point to join in on the session.

His response to a question from Matt Weyrich was classic Morton. The Baltimore Sun scribe asked the introspective veteran of 14 big-league seasons if he sees himself as a role model and/or mentor for a comparably inexperienced staff.

“I’d love to say that I have the answers,” replied Morton, whom the Orioles inked to a one-year deal worth $15 million. “I don’t. I think that, as an individual, you fit in in different ways with different groups of guys. I’m not going to be the same guy that I was with the Rays, in the clubhouse. I’m not going to be the same guy I was with the Astros or the Braves. Each person in those rooms, they’re just a piece of that larger puzzle. While I am the same person, there are different factors that direct you towards behaving a certain way… the value to a person, in the clubhouse, is the human being that they are.”

As much as baseball is in his blood, Morton is a family man. In August 2023, shortly before his 40th birthday, I asked him how much longer he could continue to defy Father Time and excel against baseball’s best hitters. He told me that he doesn’t think about it that way. Rather, he viewed it as “When am I going to go home?” Blessed with a wife and kids, Morton has pondered walking away from the game he loves for several years running. As the 2024 campaign was winding down, he once again thought there was “a really good chance [this] was going to be my last year.”

That’s he’s continued to perform well enough to not have the decision made for him is a big part of his story. Going from “Ground Chuck” to a pitcher who misses bats helped allow that to happen. Echoing what he told me back in 2017, his first season with the Astros, Morton related to the Baltimore beat writers that his career-altering transformation took place upon his arrival in Houston.

“They had a little board room and a projection screen with charts and graphs, and they were suggesting to me to throw pitches in locations where I would get no swings, or a swing-and-miss,” explained Morton, who has enjoyed markedly more success since revamping his pitching style. “For seven years with Pittsburgh, I was trying to get the ball on the ground with three pitches or less, and now they’re telling me, ‘Don’t let them hit it’… you’re not relying on the fate of where the ball is going, you are relying on your stuff.”

Which brings us back to where he’s going now, which is Baltimore and at least one more season on a big-league mound. Morton admitted to having been on the fence as to whether he even wanted to hear if there were any offers this winter, but when the Orioles called, the situation sounded right. Not only would he be getting a chance to pitch for a legitimate World Series contender, it would “work logistically with myself and my family.”

When Morton does finally decide to “go home,” saying goodbye to the game will come with a heavy heart. Given the way he approaches life, it will also come with a healthy dose of reflection.

“I don’t know about the desire to play baseball going away,” said Morton, who had a 4.19 ERA and a 4.46 FIP over 165-and a -third innings with the Atlanta Braves in 2024. “I don’t think that will ever happen. I think it’s just a recognition that it’s time.”
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RANDOM HITTER-PITCHER MATCHUPS

Ben Zobrist went 10 for 25 against Andy Pettitte.

Manny Ramirez went 14 for 24 against CC Sabathia.

Adam Jones went 16 for 41 against Mark Buehrle.

Jimmy Rollins went 4 for 11 against Francisco Rodriguez.

Ian Kinsler went 6 for 18 against Fernando Rodney.

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Several people have asked me why I put a checkmark next to Andy Pettitte’s name, and not next to Mark Buehrle’s, on my Hall of Fame ballot. Here is a brief explanation:

Pettitte had 68.2 fWAR, four seasons with a fWAR of five or higher, a 3.74 FIP, and 256 wins, Buehrle had 52.3 fWAR, one season with a fWAR of five or higher, a 4.11 FIP, and 214 wins. Pettitte also has the more robust postseason resume. (The degree to which postseason should be valued — ditto win totals — is obviously subjective. Nonetheless, each is part of a player’s résumé.) With all due respect to Buehrle — an accomplished pitcher who made five All-Star teams and was awarded four Gold Gloves — I feel that Pettitte is the more deserving of the two, As for whether I should have voted for both, the 10-player limit is an obstacle. My voting for Buehrle in the future remains a possibility.

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Who was better, Félix Hernández or Jon Lester? The latter becomes Hall-eligible in two years — King Felix debuted this year and got my vote — so I asked that question in a Twitter poll. The results weren’t close. Lester received a paltry 16.7% of the votes cast, while Hernández got a whopping 83.3%. Given their respective numbers — put up in nearly the same number of innings — as well as their awards and honors, I expected a closer race.

Hernández went 169-136 with a 117 ERA+, a 3.52 FIP, and 54.0 fWAR. Lester, who pitched for better teams, went 200-117 with a 117 ERA+, a 3.78 FIP, and 46.2 fWAR.

Hernández was a six-time All-Star, won a Cy Young Award, a pair of ERA titles, and threw a perfect game. Lester was a five-time All-Star who won three World Series rings (two with the Red Sox, one with the Cubs). His Fall Classic résumé includes a 4-1 record and a 1.77 ERA, while his overall postseason ERA was 2.51 over 154 innings. He also has an LCS MVP to his credit.

Will Lester get my vote when he becomes Hall-eligible? That’s yet to be determined. He has a valid argument, regardless of whether his career is deemed as impressive as Félix’s.

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I also ran a poll asking which of Derek Jeter or Ichiro Suzuki was better. I won’t bother to cite any of their numbers — what the first-ballot Hall of Famers did over of the course of their careers is well known — but I will pass along the results.

Ichiro garnered 79.1% of the votes cast. Jeter received just 20.9%. Make of that what you will.

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One more on the Hall of Fame:

I’m of the opinion that Firpo Marberry deserves a plaque in Cooperstown. The first MLB pitcher prominently utilized as a “closer,” Marberry led the American League in saves six times, and in appearances another six times. Moreover, he did so while also serving as a starter. Playing primarily for the Washington Senators — the right-hander also took the mound for the Detroit Tigers, and very briefly the New York Giants — Marberry logged a 148-88 won-lost record, 101 saves (B-Ref has him with 99), and a 116 ERA+ across the 1923-1936 seasons . His best year was 1929, when he went 19-12 with 11 saves while starting 23 games and coming out of the bullpen 26 times. His top saves totals were 22, 16, and 15, those in seasons where no other hurler reached double digits.

Given his body of work and pioneer status, Frederick “Firpo” Marberry would be a worthy Hall of Famer.

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A quiz:

Cal Ripken Jr. drew 1,129 walks, the most in Baltimore Orioles history. Which Oriole has drawn the second most walks? (A hint: He is the franchise’s all-time leader in reaching base via HBP.)

The answer can be found below.

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NEWS NOTES

Bob Veale, a left-hander who won 120 games while pitching primarily for the Pittsburgh Pirates in a career that spanned the 1962-1974 seasons, died on January 7 at age 89. A flame-throwing Birmingham, Alabama native who made a pair of NL All-Star teams, Veale led the senior circuit with 250 strikeouts in 1964.

Felix Mantilla, a native of Isabela, Puerto Rico who spent the first six of his 11 big-league seasons with the Milwaukee Braves, died on Friday at age 90. An infielder/outfielder, Mantilla had his best year in 1964 when hit 30 home runs with the Boston Red Sox. Two years earlier, he was in the starting lineup when the New York Mets played their first game in franchise history.

Brian Matusz, a left-hander who pitched in 280 games for the Baltimore Orioles, and in one game for Chicago Cubs, from 2009-2016, died earlier this month at age 37. No cause of death has been reported.

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The answer to the quiz is Brady Anderson, who walked 927 times as an Oriole. His franchise-most HBP total was 148.

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A random obscure former player snapshot:

Ray Culp was a shrewd trade acquisition for the Red Sox in November 1967. Less than two months after losing the World Series to the St. Louis Cardinals, Boston received the 26-year-old right-hander from the Chicago Cubs in exchange for Bill Schlesinger and a PTBNL (Al Montreuil), a nondescript duo whose combined careers comprised all of six games and one hit in a dozen at-bats. Culp’s career was far more distinguished. At his best in his first four Boston seasons — this before arm woes entered the equation — the Elgin, Texas native went 64-44 with a 3.34 ERA over 937 innings. All told, Culp won 122 games pitching for the Cubs, Red Sox, and initially the Philadelphia Phillies, from 1963-1973.

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FOREIGN AFFAIRS

NPB’s Seibu Lions signed a pair of players who saw action in MLB this year. Right-hander Trey Wingenter made a smattering of appearances with the Boston Red Sox and Chicago Cubs, while Tyler Nevin played in 87 games for the Oakland Athletics.

Hiroto Takahashi is working to add a two-seamer to his repertoire (per Yahoo Japan). The Chunichi Dragons right-hander went 12-4 with a 1.38 ERA, and just 107 hits allowed in 143-and-two-thirds innings, this past season. Takahashi turned 22 in August.

Alex Wells is 5-1 with a 1.56 ERA over 52 innings for the Australian Baseball League’s Sydney Blue Sox. The 27-year-old southpaw made 13 appearances with the Baltimore Orioles across the 2021-2022 seasons.

Brennon McNair is slashing .254/.361/.574 with a circuit-best 11 home runs in 145 plate appearances for the ABL’s Brisbane Bandits. The 21-year-old infielder/outfielder in the Kansas City Royals organization had a .660 OPS last year with the High-A Columbia Fireflies.

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What has been the best game of your life? I asked that question to a number of players this past season, originally for a standalone piece that ran in early June, and subsequently for inclusion in a handful of Sunday Notes columns. Pittsburgh Pirates reliever Colin Holderman was among those to share his memories.

“I was at Heartland Community College, it was one of our first games of the year, and we were playing Walters State,” Holderman told me at PNC Park in late September. “I went eight innings, and I think I struck out 12. I also went 3-for-4 with two homers, one of them a go-ahead homer in the eighth. They were the No. 1 team in the country for junior college, and we were No. 2, so it was a pretty big matchup. That put us on top of the leaderboard. It’s something I think about often, so that would probably have to be my best overall game.”

The right-hander considers an immaculate inning he threw against the Tampa Bay Rays on May 4, 2023 his “biggest big-league moment.” It was his first immaculate inning at any level, and he turned the trick throwing “one sinker, the rest were cutters and sweepers.”

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LINKS YOU’LL LIKE

At CBS Sports, Mike Snyder addressed a number of false Hall of Fame narratives, including the misguided belief that the Hall is getting watered down.

Baseball America gave us minor league park factors for 2024 (subscription required).

Baseball America surveyed evaluators on the current state of scouting (unlike most BA articles, this is not behind a paywall).

The Kansas City Royals had Brent Rooker on their roster late in the 2022 season, only to lose him to the Oakland Athletics via the waiver wire. Max Rieper wrote about the ill-fated decision to cut Rooker loose, at Royals Review.

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RANDOM FACTS AND STATS

Justin Verlander is 24-24 with a 4.42 ERA in his career against the Cleveland Indians/Guardians. The 24 losses are his most against any team. The most losses Verlander has against any other club is 14, against the Chicago White Sox.

Clayton Kershaw is 11-0 with a 2.03 ERA in 17 career starts against the New York Mets. He is 4-7 with a 2.73 ERA in 17 career starts against the Philadelphia Phillies.

In 1968, Baltimore Orioles left-hander Dave McNally went 22-10 with a 1.95 ERA over 273 innings. He had a 5.3% walk rate and a .202 BABIP-against.

Melvin Mora had a three-year stretch (2003-2005) with the Orioles where his average season included a .312/.391/.513 slash line, 23 home runs, a 142 wRC+, and 5.1 WAR.

Juan Marichal and Brooks Robinson were elected to the Hall of Fame on today’s date in 1983. Robinson was on the ballot for the first time. Marichal was on the ballot for the third time.

On today’s date in 1982, the Minnesota Twins selected Kirby Puckett third overall in the January phase of the MLB draft out of Triton College. The first two picks were Kash Beauchamp, by the Toronto Blue Jays, and Troy Afenir, by the Chicago Cubs.

Players born on today’s date include Nigel Wilson, an outfielder who had three hits in 35 at-bats while playing for the Florida Marlins, Cincinnati Reds, and Cleveland Indians across parts of the 1993-1996 seasons. The Oshawa, Ontario native had far more success in Japan, logging 37, 33, and 37 home runs in his three full seasons with NPB’s Nippon Ham Fighters.

Also born on today’s date was Togie Pittinger, a right-hander who went 115-113 pitching for the Boston Nationals and Philadelphia Phillies from 1900-1907. The Greencastle, Pennsylvania native won 27 games in 1902, then lost an NL-worst 22 games the following year. His 1903 season also saw him surrender the most earned runs, hits, home runs, and walks. Pittinger did hit his only career home run that year, going yard against left-hander Luther Taylor, who won 116 games after signing with the New York Giants out of the Kansas School for the Deaf.

Which player had a better career, Dustin Pedroia or David Wright? I asked that question in a Twitter poll a few days ago, with the erstwhile Boston Red Sox second baseman outpolling the former New York Mets third baseman by a measure of 58.8% to 41.2%. Results aside, how they compare in historical significance has been on my mind. Both are on the Hall of Fame ballot I will be filling out in the coming days, and depending on what I decide to do with a pair of controversial players that have received my votes in recent years, each is a strong consideration for a checkmark. More on that in a moment.

It’s no secret that Pedroia and Wright were on track for Cooperstown prior to injuries sidetracking their seemingly clear paths. Rather than having opportunities to build on their counting stats, they finished with just 1,805 and 1,777 hits, and 44.8 and 51.3 WAR, respectively. That said, each has a resumé that includes an especially impressive 10-year stretch (Wright had 10 seasons with 100 or more games played. Pedroia had nine).

To wit:

From 2007-2016, Pedroia slashed .303/.368/.447 with an 118 wRC+ and 45 WAR. Over that span, he made four All-Star teams, won four Gold Gloves, and earned both Rookie of the Year and MVP honors. Moreover, he was an integral part of two World Series-winning teams.

From 2005-2014, Wright slashed .298/.379/.492 with a 134 wRC+ and 48.1 WAR. Over that span, he made seven All-Star teams and won two Gold Gloves. Unlike his Red Sox contemporary, he captured neither a Rookie of the Year or MVP award, nor did he play for a World Series winner. That said, as Jay Jaffe wrote earlier this month, “Wright is the greatest position player in Mets history.” Read the rest of this entry »

The Winter Meetings always feature trades, but two stood above the fray last week. First, the Guardians traded Andrés Giménez to the Blue Jays in a two-part transaction that briefly left Cleveland with three lefty-hitting first basemen. Then the White Sox traded Garrett Crochet to the Red Sox for four prospects. The best of that group, Kyle Teel, happens to play catcher, the same position as Chicago’s top prospect Edgar Quero. They even have the same future value grade of 50, which is the cutoff for top 100 prospects.

The Guardians made an extra trade to avoid doubling up on similar archetypes, sending Spencer Horwitz to the Pirates for three young pitchers, but the White Sox just kept both catchers. I heard a lot of murmured questioning of that decision as I walked around the Dallas hotel that briefly hosted the center of the baseball universe. But I think both teams were acting rationally, and that worrying about Teel and Quero overlapping is silly. I can’t prove it for you – but I did come up with some data that will hopefully sway your opinion.

Cleveland’s case was straightforward. Steamer projects Horwitz as a 2.5 WAR/600 PA player. It projects Kyle Manzardo as a 1.8 WAR/600 PA player. Josh Naylor? Steamer has him down for 2.4 WAR/600 PA. Three players for two positions — first and DH. (Yes, Horwitz has played second base, too, but he really shouldn’t be a second baseman, and I don’t think the Guardians would’ve used him there.) One of them would ride the bench despite being an above-average contributor, a poor decision for a team that’s trying to maximize its resources. Something had to give.

On the other hand, there are the White Sox. They, too, traded a young star, and the best player they got back plays a position where they already had a similar option. Teel was our 42th-ranked prospect on our updated Top 100 list in 2024, a polished all-around catcher who we expect to reach the majors at some point in the next two years. Quero was our 40th-ranked prospect, and you’re never going to believe this, but he’s a polished all-around catcher who we expect to reach the majors at some point in the next two years.
Read the rest of this entry »

When addressing his team’s acquisition of Garrett Crochet at the Winter Meetings, Craig Breslow said that the 25-year-old southpaw’s relationship with the Red Sox’ analytics group will be important, so that he “can continue to understand how he can get the best out of his stuff.” I subsequently asked Boston’s Chief Baseball Officer if, based on their pre-trade homework, they have identified any specific adjustments Crochet might want to make, or if they plan to mostly just let him keep doing what he does.

“I think the answer is probably both,” replied Breslow. “Right? We want to lean into what he does particularly well, and he does a lot of things really, really well. You look at the strikeouts, and especially the strikeouts relative to the walks; that’s a pretty good underpinning for a really successful starting pitcher. Once we have a chance to get to know him, have conversations with him, we’ll lean on [pitching coach Andrew Bailey] and the rest of the group. But it’s probably not fair to talk about what adjustments we might make before we’ve had a chance to have that conversation with him.”

Crochet is looking forward to the conversation. He expects it to take place in the coming week, and he’ll go into it with thoughts he’s been formulating since last summer. When I talked to Crochet in late August, he spoke of usage percentages and how he’d begun tinkering with a sinker. I reminded him of that earlier exchange when he met with the Boston media over Zoom on Friday, then proceeded to ask about his forthcoming discussions with the Red Sox pitching department. Read the rest of this entry »

The White Sox finished the 2024 season with my fourth-ranked farm system, and now they’ve added four good prospects via their trade with the Red Sox centered around lefty starter Garrett Crochet, who is under contract for two more seasons. You can read about Crochet and the Red Sox here. Coming back to Chicago in exchange are soon-to-be 23-year-old catcher Kyle Teel, 2024 first-round pick Braden Montgomery, 22-year-old developmental righty Wikelman Gonzalez, and data darling 23-year-old infielder Chase Meidroth. Two of those players (Teel and Meidroth) have a good chance to debut in 2025.

I thought this deal was much better than what the White Sox got back from San Diego last March for two years of Dylan Cease. A blockbuster rule of thumb: Get back at least one high-probability everyday hitter. Teel fits the bill. He’s a well-rounded player who is a virtual lock to remain at catcher and who will probably hit for enough power to be the White Sox primary catcher a few years from now. Montgomery is a switch-hitter with immense lefty bat speed, and he may also turn into an everyday, power-hitting right fielder down the line. Meidroth (elite contact, no power) and Gonzalez (three good-looking pitches that don’t play due to poor control) each have a plus characteristic or two that should facilitate an eventual big league role, and both have a puncher’s chance to be more than that. While it’s painful to part with a talent like Crochet (who was a bold, injured draft pick in 2020), a four-for-one swap in which each prospect they acquired has a special skill and potentially meaningful upside gives the White Sox a great combination of depth and ceiling in this transaction. Read the rest of this entry »

The following article is part of Jay Jaffe’s ongoing look at the candidates on the BBWAA 2025 Hall of Fame ballot. For a detailed introduction to this year’s ballot, and other candidates in the series, use the tool above; an introduction to JAWS can be found here. For a tentative schedule and a chance to fill out a Hall of Fame ballot for our crowdsourcing project, see here. All WAR figures refer to the Baseball-Reference version unless otherwise indicated.

The fourth and final multi-candidate pairing of this series is by far the heaviest, covering two candidates who have both been connected to multiple incidents of domestic violence. Read the rest of this entry »

“Hey, they won’t have to say ‘we tried’ this time.” I can’t attribute that quote to anyone in particular, but the Winter Meetings were abuzz with variations on a theme. After missing out on Juan Soto and Max Fried earlier in the week, the Boston Red Sox switched gears from free agency to the trade market and found their star. In a blockbuster deal, they’re acquiring Garrett Crochet from the Chicago White Sox in exchange for Kyle Teel, Braden Montgomery, Chase Meidroth, and Wikelman Gonzalez, as Julian McWilliams of the Boston Globe first reported.

This is the biggest trade of the offseason, and it’ll almost surely still occupy that position when next season rolls around. Pitchers like Crochet don’t hit the market very often. He blew the doors off the league in his first year of starting, pairing premium velocity with two excellent secondaries. He threw 146 innings, struck out more than 200 batters, and barely walked anyone while doing so. His strikeout stuff, exploding fastball, and lanky lefty frame call to mind Chris Sale, another Sox-to-Sox trade piece, and with the White Sox in the middle of a gut-renovation rebuild, he was always likely to get traded. The only questions were who for, and which team was most interested in adding him to their rotation.

We’ll cover the ins and outs of the prospects included in the deal in a separate post. Broadly speaking, though, the White Sox got a little bit of everything in their return. Teel is a Top 100 catching prospect approaching major league readiness with impressive speed. Montgomery is a high-risk, high-reward outfield prospect, the 12th pick of the 2024 draft. Gonzalez has mouth watering stuff that took a step back this year, and a sky-high walk rate to match. Meidroth is an on-base genius with questionable power and an uncertain defensive future. The White Sox have so many needs that they don’t have to be choosy about filling particular holes or looking for particular profiles. They just need talent. This return fits well with that best player available mentality. Read the rest of this entry »

The following article is part of Jay Jaffe’s ongoing look at the candidates on the BBWAA 2025 Hall of Fame ballot. For a detailed introduction to this year’s ballot, and other candidates in the series, use the tool above; an introduction to JAWS can be found here. For a tentative schedule and a chance to fill out a Hall of Fame ballot for our crowdsourcing project, see here. All WAR figures refer to the Baseball-Reference version unless otherwise indicated.

Before Joe Mauer began starring for the Twins, there was Torii Hunter, and before Chase Utley began starring for the Phillies, there was Jimmy Rollins. Hunter, a rangy, acrobatic center fielder who eventually won nine Gold Gloves and made five All-Star teams, debuted with Minnesota in 1997 and emerged as a star in 2001, the same year the Twins chose Mauer with the number one pick of the draft. The pair would play together from 2004 to ’07, making the playoffs twice before Hunter departed in free agency. Rollins, a compact shortstop who carried himself with a swagger, debuted in 2001 and made two All-Star teams by the time he and Utley began an 11-year run (2004–14) as the Phillies’ regular double play combination. The pair helped Philadelphia to five NL East titles, two pennants, and a championship, with Rollins winning NL MVP honors in 2007 and taking home four Gold Gloves.

Hunter and Rollins both enjoyed lengthy and impressive careers, racking up over 2,400 hits apiece with substantial home run and stolen base totals. From a Hall of Fame perspective, both have credentials that appeal more to traditionally minded voters than to statheads, but in their time on the ballot, they’ve gotten little traction. Hunter debuted with 9.5% in 2021 but has yet to match that since, finishing with 7.3% on the ’24 ballot. Rollins debuted with 9.4% in 2022 and has gained a little ground in each cycle since, with 14.8% in ’24. Both have been outdistanced by their former teammates, whose advanced statistics are much stronger despite comparatively short careers; Mauer was elected this past January, while Utley debuted with 28.8%, nearly double Rollins’ share. Still, it appears that this pair will persist on the ballot for awhile, with enough support for us to keep reliving their careers and discussing their merits on an annual basis. There are far worse fates for Hall of Fame candidates. Read the rest of this entry »

DALLAS — The collision of human mortality and baseball immortality is a jarring one that has resonated throughout the history of the National Baseball Hall of Fame, and Sunday night’s announcement of the voting results of the Classic Baseball Era Committee was yet another reminder. Four years after dying of cancer at the age of 78, and three years after falling one vote short for his second straight ballot, Dick Allen finally gained entry. Also elected was 73-year-old Dave Parker, who has been rendered frail while waging a very public battle with Parkinson’s Disease in recent years.

The two sluggers were the only candidates from among a slate of eight elected by the 16-member committee, which met on Sunday at the Winter Meetings here in Dallas. The panel was charged with considering candidates from an overly broad swath of the game’s history. By definition, all eight candidates made their greatest impact prior to 1980, but weighing the merits of John Donaldson, who pitched in the major Negro Leagues from 1920–24 (and for Black baseball teams predating the Negro Leagues as early as 1915), against the likes of Parker, whose major league career ran from 1973–91, is a nearly impossible task, particularly within the limitations of a format that allows each voter to choose a maximum of three candidates from among the eight.

Parker, who had fallen short on three previous Era Committee ballots, received the most support from the panel, totaling 14 votes out of 16 (87.5%), while Allen received 13 (81.3%). Tommy John received seven (43.8%) in his fifth Era Committee appearance. The other five candidates — Ken Boyer, Donaldson, Steve Garvey, Vic Harris, Luis Tiant — each received less than five votes, according to the Hall.

To these eyes, Allen was the most deserving of the non-Negro Leagues candidates on this ballot. In a 15-year-career with the Phillies (1963–69, ’75–76), Cardinals (’70), Dodgers (’71), White Sox (’72–74), and A’s (’77), he made seven All-Star teams; led his league in OPS+ three times, in home runs twice, and in WAR once; and won NL Rookie of the Year and AL MVP awards (’64 and ’72, respectively) while hitting 351 homers and batting .292/.378/.534. Among players with at least 7,000 plate appearances, his career 156 OPS+ is tied with Hall of Famer Frank Thomas for 14th all time.

Allen accrued just 1,848 hits, and so he joins 2022 Golden Days honoree Tony Oliva as the only post-1960 expansion era players in the Hall with fewer than 2,000 hits. The marker has served as a proxy for career length, for better or worse, and in doing so has frozen out players whose careers were shortened for one reason or another, as well as those who built a good portion of their value via on-base skills and defense. BBWAA voters have yet to elect one such player, though Andruw Jones (1,933) is climbing toward 75%, and Chase Utley (1,885) made a solid debut on the 2024 ballot.

Not a particularly adept defender, Allen bounced from third base to left field to first base while traveling around the majors. He accrued his most value while playing third; he’s 17th in both WAR (58.7) and JAWS (52.3) at the position, slightly below Boyer (62.8 WAR, 54.5 JAWS), who had the advantage of a much less controversial career.

Allen’s career was shortened by what seemed to be a constant battle with the world around him, one in which the racism he faced in the minor leagues and in Philadelphia played a major role. Six years after governor Orval Faubus called in the Arkansas National Guard in order to prevent the court-ordered desegregation of Little Rock Central High School, the Phillies sent the 21-year-old Allen to become the first affiliated Black professional baseball player in the state. Faubus himself threw out the first pitch while picketers carried signs with slogans such as “Don’t Negro-ize baseball” and “N***** go home.”⁠ Though Allen hit a double in the game-winning rally, he was greeted with a note on his car: “DON’T COME BACK AGAIN N*****,”⁠ as he recounted in his autobiography, Crash: The Life and Times of Dick Allen.

The Phillies themselves — the NL’s last team to integrate, 10 years after Jackie Robinson debuted — were far behind the integration curve, as was Philadelphia itself. Allen quickly became a polarizing presence, covered by a media contingent so unable or unwilling to relate to him that writers often refused to call him by the name of his choosing: Dick Allen, not Richie.

Allen rebelled against his surroundings. As biographer Mitchell Nathanson wrote in God Almighty Hisself: The Life and Legacy of Dick Allen, “He refused to pander to the media, refused to accept management’s time-honored methods for determining the value of a ballplayer, and, most explosively, refused to go along with and kowtow to the racial double standard that had evolved within Major League Baseball in the wake of the game’s integration in 1947.”

Allen struggled for support during his 1983–97 run on the BBWAA ballot, never reaching 20%, and he similarly lagged in the voting of the expanded Veterans Committee from 2003–09. However, thanks in part to a grassroots campaign by former Phillies groundskeeper Mark Carfagno, he received a fresh look from the 2015 Golden Era Committee and fell just one vote short of election. The change in Era Committee formats meant that his case wasn’t scheduled to be reconsidered until the 2021 Golden Day Era Committee ballot, but the COVID-19 pandemic led the Hall to postpone that election. In a cruel blow, Allen died of cancer on December 7, 2020, one day after his candidacy would have been considered. Crueler still for his family, he again fell one vote short when the committee finally met in December 2021. Thus his election is a bittersweet moment, one that would have been greatly enriched by his being able to enjoy it.

Whatever quibbles there are to be had with the election of Parker, we can be grateful he’s still around to savor it. A five-tool player whose power, ability to hit for average, and strong, accurate throwing arm all stood out, he spent 19 years in the majors with the Pirates (1973–83), hometown Reds (’84–87), A’s (’88–89), Brewers (’90), Angels (’91), and Blue Jays (’91). He hit 339 homers and collected 2,712 hits while batting .290/.339/.471 (121 OPS+) and making seven All-Star teams, and at his peak, he was considered the game’s best all-around player. In his first five full seasons (1975-79), he amassed a World Series ring (in the last of those years), regular season and All-Star MVP awards, two batting titles, two league leads in slugging percentage, and three Gold Gloves, not to mention tremendous swagger and a great nickname (“The Cobra”).

A 14th-round draft pick out of Cincinnati’s Courier Tech High School — he fell from the first or second round due to multiple knee injuries that ended his pursuit of football, his favorite sport — Parker debuted with the Pirates in July 1973, just seven months after the death of Roberto Clemente. He assumed full-time duty as the team’s right fielder a season and a half later, and appeared to be on course to join the Puerto Rican legend in Cooperstown, but cocaine, poor conditioning, and injuries threw him off course. While he recovered well enough to make three more All-Star teams, play a supporting role on the 1989 World Series-winning A’s, and compile hefty career totals while playing past the age of 40, his game lost multiple dimensions along the way.

Parker debuted with just 17.5% on the 1997 BBWAA ballot and peaked at 24.5% the next year, but only one other time in his final 13 seasons of eligibility did he top 20%. In appearances on the 2014 Expansion Era ballot and ’18 and ’20 Modern Baseball ones, only in the last of those did he break out of the “received less than X votes” group; he got seven (43.8%) that year.

Because his defense declined to the point that he was relegated to DH duty, Parker ranks just 41st in JAWS among right fielders (38.8), 17.9 points below the standard. Still, this is not Harold Baines Redux. While Baines collected 2,866 hits — and might have reached 3,000 if not for the two players’ strikes that occurred during his career — he never put up much black ink or finished higher than ninth in MVP voting, spent the vast majority of his career as a DH, and ranks 77th in JAWS among right fielders (30.1). He was never close to being considered the best hitter in the game, let alone the best all-around player. His 2019 election was a shock, and a result that felt engineered given the makeup of the panel.

As I noted in my write-up of Parker, the contemporary whose case bears the most resemblance to his is that of Dale Murphy, for as different as the two were off the field — and you can’t get much further apart than the distance between Parker’s drug-related misadventures and Murphy’s wholesome, milk-drinking persona. A two-time MVP, Murphy — who fell short on the 2023 Contemporary Baseball ballot and will be eligible again next year — had a peak that’s vaguely Hall-caliber, but he’s ranks 27th in JAWS among center fielders, 14.4 points below the standard, because myriad injuries prevented him from having much value outside that peak.

I had Allen atop my list as the most deserving non-PED-linked position player outside the Hall. While I was lukewarm on Parker, it’s impossible not to feel some amount of empathy for his hard-won wisdom — his autobiography Cobra: A Life in Baseball and Brotherhood, written with Dave Jordan, is frank and poignant — and his battle with Parkinson’s, not to mention his prominent role in raising money to fight the disease. Again, it is far better that he is alive to enjoy this honor than to have it granted posthumously, as would have been the case for Tiant, who died in October at age 83. Boyer died in 1983 at age 52. John is 81, Garvey 75. For as tiresome as it may sometimes feel to see their candidacies reheated every three years or so, one can understand the desire to honor them while they’re alive — but then again, the same goes for the candidates they’re crowding off the ballot.

The most frustrating aspect of this election is how little traction the two Negro Leagues candidates had, as they were the top returning members from the 2022 Early Baseball ballot, with Harris — the most successful manager in Negro Leagues history — having received 10 votes (62.5%) and Donaldson — a legendary pitcher who spent most of his playing years barnstorming endlessly out of economic necessity — getting eight (50%). The 16-member panel did include two bona fide Negro Leagues scholars in Larry Lester and Leslie Heaphy. However, in my opinion and those of many Negro Leagues experts, it would be far better for a full panel of such researchers and scholars to consider these candidates and the unique and difficult context of their careers without having to battle for attention and space with much more famous players from a relatively recent past.

Appointed by the Hall’s board of directors, this ballot’s 16-member committee consisted of Hall of Famers Paul Molitor, Eddie Murray, Tony Perez, Lee Smith, Ozzie Smith, and Joe Torre; major league executives Sandy Alderson, Terry McGuirk, Dayton Moore, Arte Moreno, and Brian Sabean; and veteran media members/historians Bob Elliott, Steve Hirdt, and Dick Kaegel as well as Heaphy and Lester. In contrast to years past, this group had far fewer obvious connections to candidates, with Torre having played with Allen in St. Louis in 1970, Alderson serving as the general manager of the A’s when they traded for John in mid-’85 and Parker in December ’87, and Sabean in the scouting department of the Yankees when John had his second go-round with the team starting in ’86. [Update: As readers have pointed out, I missed that Perez and Parker were teammates in Cincinnati from 1984–86, and Molitor and Parker were teammates in Milwaukee in ’90.] Where both the 2023 and ’24 Contemporary Era Committees (the latter for managers, executives, and umpires) had just three media members/historians, this one had five.

The Era Committee process is an imperfect one, and by some measures these were imperfect candidates. If they weren’t, they probably wouldn’t have been relegated to Era Committee ballots in the first place, though not necessarily through their own fault. The voting results won’t please everyone, but hopefully even critics of the process can see some value in Sunday’s result.