Last August, with the New York Yankees in the middle of a pennant race, Curtis Granderson made an extremely questionable decision. Fed up with his futility against lefties, Granderson decided to completely revamp his swing. The decision carried a considerable amount of risk, since few hitters are able to completely retool their swing on the fly. Since that fateful day in August, Granderson’s performance against lefties has improved markedly. After last night’s home run against David Price, it’s time to take a closer look at Granderson’s transformation.
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Some interesting news came out this week regarding Bartolo Colon and his path back to the Major Leagues. Last spring he had stem cells surgically inserted into his elbow and shoulder, and this somewhat experimental procedure is now receiving a lot of notoriety due to Colon’s surprising success so far this season. I’m not a doctor and realize that I have limited insight into medical procedures, so I’ll stay out of the debate about how effective this surgery may or may not be, but I do think that we need to keep in mind the reality of Colon’s performance when talking about whether this kind of procedure will be “the future of sports medicine”.

There’s no doubt that Colon has generated terrific results for the Yankees so far this year; his 2.81 xFIP is the lowest of any pitcher in the American League. He’s pounding his fastball for strikes and hitters are having problems doing anything with it. But if you look beyond just the raw results, there are some markers that indicate that this version of Colon isn’t all that different from prior versions.

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At 36 and just after signing a three-year deal, Derek Jeter is off to a horrible start in 2011. With 120 plate appearances Jeter has a wRC+ of just 57, and the main reason is his complete lack of power. Of his 27 hits only two have gone for extra bases — both doubles — leaving him with an ISO of 0.019, the worst in baseball.

The culprit for Jeter’s lack of power is his league-leading 72% ground-ball rate. In fact, since the start of 2010 Jeter has hit two thirds of his balls in play on the ground. That is far and away the most of any major league player, and considerably higher than the 57% he has averaged since 2002. WIth this big change in ground-ball rate I assumed that Jeter was swinging more at pitches low in the zone, but that is not the case: Read the rest of this entry »

What to do with a struggling hitter? This among the many tough decisions a manager must make. Dropping him in the order, or removing him from it completely, might put a band-aid on the issue, but it doesn’t get at the root. It also opens up confidence issues, which are completely subjective and run on a case-by-case basis. So why while we, the fans and interested observers, might call for a player’s demotion, it’s not always that easy. Yet in other cases it’s just what the player needs. Good managers have a feeling for what the appropriate course of action is in each case. While it is far from being universally accepted that Joe Girardi and Fredi Gonzalez are good managers, they both made smart moves, at least in terms of results, when they dropped top of the order guys down to the bottom.

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Stage hypnotists make a living calling people up on stage and making them believe that they’re something they’re not, be it a lion, a pirate or even Kanye West. Someone may want to look at the Yankees payroll to see if they have a hypnotist on payroll this season, because all of a sudden Bartolo Colon — after allowing just three runs in his first 14 2/3 innings as a starter this year — has been transformed into a quality Major League starter once again.

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“I heard the jury was still out on… Science…”

–G.O.B. Bluth, Arrested Development

Saunter over to the Shutdown and Meltdown leaderboard and you will find a curious leader: The San Diego Padres.

Yes, the Friars have somehow amassed an absurd 31 shutdowns (SD) while winning a sport-worst nine games. This seems somewhat surprising, because experience has taught me — among many things about cats — that bad teams typically do not need great bullpens. They might have them (*cough* Joakim Soria *cough cough*), but they do not need them because they get destroyed early and often.

Take my hand and follow me down Logic Avenue: The worst teams will not often participate in three-run, save-opportunity games — or even one-run games. Instead they will presumably watch this and employ a slew of mop-up long men who do not affect the game’s already-decided outcome. I mean, c’mon, three-fifths of the Royals rotation is likely to allow five runs before finishing the 6th inning. What can a bulllpen possibly do when the score is 5 to -1?

In the same stroke of logic, wouldn’t we expect the best teams to have fewer save opportunities? Unlike impressively mediocre teams, like the Chicago Cubs, the New York Yankees spend a good deal of time slapping homers and trouncing weaklings. As a result, we should expect they play fewer close games than the Cubs, who must crawl, snarl, and curse their way into every victory and loss.

Well, that may be logical, but it’s not entirely correct.
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To say that Rafael Soriano has struggled so far this season would be akin to saying Babe Ruth was a decent ballplayer: you’d technically be right, but off by multiple factors of ten. Soriano has struggled mightily since making his Yankee debut, allowing at least one baserunner in nine of his ten appearances, and posting an “Ouch!” inducing 7.84 ERA and 5.55 FIP. He has three meltdowns already this season (only had four total in 2010), and he’s blown two Yankee leads: once on April 5th against the Twins and once last night against the White Sox. Last night was particularly painful, as Soriano plunked Carlos Quentin with a slider and then grooved a fastball down the heart of the plate to Paul Konerko. I don’t think I need to tell you where that pitch ended up.

Since it’s so early in the season, it’s easy to write off these struggles as relatively unimportant; odds are, this is just a slump and Soriano will be his normal, dominant self for the rest of the year. Soriano has only thrown 10 innings this year, so it’s way too early to begin putting credence in his ERA, FIP, or xFIP. But while that may be true, I don’t like leaving analyses at this level; I want to know why Soriano is slumping now. Is this simply a matter of bad luck? Has he changed his pitching approach? Is he struggling with any of his pitches?

To the Pitch F/x data we go!

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Johnny Damon’s case for the Hall of Fame has recently come up (again). Indeed, some people seem to think it is time to start discussing which hat he should be wearing for his induction. My initial response is “he’s been good, but not good enough,” but hey, I’ve been wrong before. Many times. While the voters have made some progress in recent years, they aren’t exactly known for their objectivity or consistency. What the voters will do with Johnny Damon is one question, one that involves stuff like history and folk psychology, things I’m not interested in dealing with here. Instead, I want to address what the voters should do in Damon’s case.

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When the Yankees acquired Curtis Granderson from the Detroit Tigers prior to the 2010 season, many expected the All-Star center fielder to thrive in the New Yankee Stadium, even relative to his excellent tenure in the Motor City. Although 2010 wasn’t a disappointing season by any means — Granderson put up a .346 wOBA and solid defense in center en route to 3.7 WAR — he didn’t realize the power boost that many expected with the move from lefty-suppressing Comerica Park to lefty-friendly New Yankee Stadium. That is, until this season. After a modest 24 homer season in 2010, Granderson has slugged seven quick bombs in 2011, lending credence to those who expected Granderson to go supernova last season but were left disappointed. Even though it took a full year, though, we shouldn’t be surprised Granderson is showing some premiere power.

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Jorge Posada doesn’t always get hits, but when he does they’re home runs.* In his 67 PA so far this season, all from the DH spot, Posada has managed a mere nine hits, good for a .153 batting average. As Bradley wrote last week, that gives him a “laughably terrible BABIP,” which is now down to .086. That might seem a bit odd at first glance. A .154 BA against a .086 BABIP? That’s what happens when six of your nine hits clear the fence. It’s clear that Posada will still run into one from time to time. Unfortunately, similar to Vladimir Guerrero, about whom I wrote last week, Posada has looked a bit washed up at the plate.

*Gotta credit River Ave. Blues commenter whozat for this one.

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