Archive for Yankees

Tim Anderson, Paul DeJong, and Terrible Plate Discipline

This is not just about the Cardinals’ shortstop Paul DeJong. He’s the subject of the sarcastic tweet below, but the point is that this sort of sentiment — surprise at a walk from a player with poor plate discipline — is increasingly more common in today’s game.

It’s true, he walked! It’s also true he hasn’t walked much this year, and that he strikes out a lot. For the season, he has coupled a 2.6% BB% with a 31.3% K%. Yikes! But, with today’s power environment, this sort of plate discipline is more…allowable. Used to be, if you struck out four times for every walk, you just didn’t have a spot in baseball. That’s not true any more.

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An Update on Yonder Alonso Prior to His Seemingly Inevitable Trade

Back in March, Yonder Alonso explained to Eno Sarris that his focus during the offseason was to more frequently launch batted balls into the air.

“Did some mechanical things but also intent was important,” Alonso said in camp. “I’m trying to punish it more, get it in the air.” He agreed that aiming to put the ball in play in the air more was the major key for him this offseason as he worked.”

Alonso’s intended goal has worked out magnificently: he’s having a career season in a walk year.

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The Yankees Bullpen Could Be Something Unbelievable

The Yankees are stuck in a tailspin, being tied for last in all of baseball in wins since June 13. And if I change tabs real quick, then I can confirm that…right…now, the Yankees just lost again, this time to the Twins by five runs. That’s the bad, and the bad colors the interpretation of the present. Recency bias tells us to downplay the fact that the Yankees remain in a playoff position. Their story, for now, remains a good one, and the Yankees are still very much alive as a contender.

Even a week ago, they were a contender with some questions about the starting rotation. Then Michael Pineda was found to require Tommy John surgery, opening another hole. It seemed like the Yankees needed a starter, and a first baseman. Tuesday, they made a trade! They got a possible first baseman, in Todd Frazier. And they got two pitchers — just, two pitchers who are relief pitchers, in Tommy Kahnle and David Robertson. Additions, sure, but not the ones you might’ve expected. The Pineda gap is still there.

And the Yankees, for their part, will continue to entertain the thought of dealing for a starter. But they might’ve just indirectly addressed that very need. Starters are required to handle innings before the bullpen. The Yankees bullpen now looks like a potential deep absurdity.

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Projecting the Prospects in the Yankees-White Sox Trade

The Yankees plugged holes at first base and in the bullpen last night when they traded for Todd Frazier, David Robertson, and Tommy Kahnle. In exchange, they sent Tyler Clippard to the White Sox, along with prospects Blake Rutherford, Ian Clarkin, and Tito Polo.

Below are the projections for the three players whom the White Sox receive. WAR figures account for the player’s first six major-league seasons. KATOH denotes the stats-only version of the projection system, while KATOH+ denotes the methodology that includes a player’s prospect rankings.

Blake Rutherford, OF (Profile)

KATOH: 1.0 WAR
KATOH+: 2.7 WAR

The Yankees took Rutherford 18th overall in last year’s draft out of high school. He’s spent his first professional season at the Low-A level, hitting .281/.342/.391. Altogether, he’s been a bit underwhelming, especially since his performance has been helped by a .341 BABIP. His 18% strikeout rate isn’t bad, per se, but it’s a little high considering the low level of competition he’s faced, especially given his lack of power. Defensively, Clay Davenport has him as a -7 defender in just 36 games in center this year, although that sample is obviously tiny. Additionally, Rutherford is already 20 years old, making him a year older than most 2016 high-school draftees.

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Yankees Build a Super Bullpen and Find a Real First Baseman

Yankees general manager Brian Cashman needed time and salesmanship to sell ownership on a dismantling at last year’s deadline, as he explained to FanGraphs earlier this spring.

It perhaps took less time to convince ownership to return to status as buyers, to build a potentially dominant bullpen, and to prevent — if only momentarily — the division-rival Red Sox from addressing one of their most glaring weaknesses.

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Yankees Reportedly Go Shopping From Red Sox Wish List

The Red Sox need a third baseman — at least, if they’re not going to give Rafael Devers a shot, like I think they should — and maybe some more relief help. This isn’t any kind of secret. Dave Dombrowski is even openly talking about it. And Todd Frazier, a walk-year player on a team trading everything that isn’t nailed down, was an obvious fit. He’d have been a fit if they wanted to keep the spot open for Devers, since he could have played some first base too, potentially giving them an upgrade over Mitch Moreland if Devers came up and mashed.

Like every other contender, they could also use another reliever or two. Their bullpen has been good so far, but also heavily worked, and no one every really has enough good bullpen arms. The White Sox were also selling good relievers, including a young controllable arm that Jeff just wrote up today. A deal between the two Sox franchises seemed like an obvious fit.

So, of course, the Yankees are apparently getting in the way, and according to reports, are closing on a deal for Frazier, David Robertson, and Tommy Kahnle.

Chase Headley has been decent enough at third base that Frazier would probably play first base in New York, or at least give them options to run some platoons at the corner infield spots with Frazier bouncing between the two spots. But for New York, this is probably more about getting two more good arms for a bullpen that has been pretty lousy so far, and then keeping Frazier away from their division rival because why not?

Given what Ryan Madson and Sean Doolittle cost, I’d imagine this trio is going to fetch a decent return, depending on how much of Robertson’s salary the Yankees are picking up. If they’re absorbing all of the ~$18 million he’s owed through next season, that might lighten the package a bit, but Kahnle was likely going to cost a lot, given his dominance this season and remaining years of control. Odds are the Yankees simply outbid the Red Sox, and I wouldn’t be surprised if making sure the Red Sox didn’t get better easily was at least partly about the reason the Yankees got involved here.

Since the deal isn’t yet done, we don’t know what price New York is paying, but I certainly wouldn’t want to try and come back against this potential bullpen in October. Kahnle, Robertson, Dellin Betances, and Aroldis Chapman would be a pretty rough group to try and score off of.


Aaron Judge Could Change Hearts, Minds of Evaluators

“He’s so quiet and simple… he looks like a contact hitter trapped in an ogre’s body.”

Charlie Blackmon on Aaron Judge

No one hits the ball like Aaron Judge. If America had any lingering doubts, they were put to rest during Monday’s Home Run Derby.

A 500-foot home run, even in a batting practice setting, is rare. Judge reached that mark four times, including a 513-foot shot.

https://twitter.com/SInow/status/884606517130952705

No batter has hit a 500-plus foot homer in game action since Adam Dunn in 2008 but Judge, who has a 496-foot homer this season — or perhaps Giancarlo Stanton — figure to breach that mark. And Judge might be the only person capable of of challenging Mickey Mantle’s estimated 565-foot homer.

The power is astounding. But it’s the ease with which Judge generates it that’s also so unusual. He didn’t fatigue during the Derby like Cody Bellinger. He doesn’t require max effort to produce a 400-foot batted ball.

What’s so remarkable about Judge isn’t just his 6-foot-7, 280-pound, NBA power-forward (or NFL tight-end) body, but rather — as Blackmon, one of Judge’s slack-jawed peers, noted on Monday — his swing.

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What Do You Do with Jacoby Ellsbury?

After this past offseason’s lack of oomph, the winter between the 2013 and 2014 seasons feels like a different time. In the span of two months, Robinson Cano, Jacoby Ellsbury, Clayton Kershaw, and Masahiro Tanaka signed $150 million-plus contracts. It’s not the last time that’s happened: the 2015-16 offseason featured the same number of deals — to Chris Davis, Zack Greinke, Jason Heyward, and David Price — above the $150 million threshold. But there’s enough distance between that earlier offseason and now that it’s possible to review the performances of the relevant players and reconsider the years ahead for them. And as a competitive Yankees club prepares for the second half of the season, it’s worth wondering what will become of former star center fielder Jacoby Ellsbury.

When Ellsbury first signed his deal, Dave Cameron examined (not for the first time) how well fast outfielders with good defense tend to age and noted that it would be dangerous to lump Ellsbury in with Carl Crawford. This was a fair and calm assessment of Ellsbury’s value. He noted that Ellsbury was projected to be a four-win player in 2014, and that over the life of his seven-year deal, Ellsbury was projected to be worth 17.5 WAR. The first part absolutely came true — Ellsbury tallied 4.1 WAR in 2014, his first with the Yankees. The latter projection, however, isn’t working out quite so well.

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Projecting Clint Frazier

After their roster was ravaged by injuries, the Yankees promoted a trio of promising hitting prospects last week in Tyler Wade, Miguel Andujar and Dustin Fowler. Fowler, the most promising of the three, was supposed play regularly in New York’s outfield. Unfortunately, his big-league career was derailed as soon as it started in horrific fashion.

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Daily Prospect Notes: 7/3

Daily notes on prospects from lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen. Read previous installments here.

Jorge Mateo, SS/CF, New York AL (Profile)
Level: Double-A Age: 22   Org Rank:  6 Top 100: 91
Line: 4-for-10, 2 3B, HR

Notes
As the dominoes fell following Gleyber Torres‘ injury, Mateo landed in Trenton. He split time between shortstop and center field down at High-A and the Yankees have the option to continue working him at both spots at Double-A with utility prospect Thairo Estrada on the roster. He struggled to do everything on the offensive end but steal bases in Tampa, failing to do damage anywhere but to his pull side. He’s off to a terrific start in Trenton, though, tallying five walks and three triples in just six games.

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