Checking In On the Padres’ Defense

You shouldn’t need very much of an introduction. Beginning a few months ago, the Padres became one of the most interesting teams in baseball, totally out of the blue. The new front office completely overhauled a bad roster, and as a part of their maneuvering, they pretty clearly prioritized offensive punch over defensive capability. For a few weeks, now, the Padres have been playing games. It’s easy to see how they’ve done as a team. It’s easy to see how well they’ve been able to hit. Defensive performance is a little more hidden. So, let’s quickly check in on the Padres’ team defense.

Where to begin? I suppose we’ll start behind the plate.

Running Game

The tricky part of this is that, while a lot of people still think the running game is about the catcher, it’s really mostly about the pitchers. Catchers can do only so much about a pitcher who’s slow to the plate, and even Yadier Molina gets stolen on occasionally. That said, catchers are clearly involved to some extent. What do we see? The Padres have allowed 20 stolen bases, tied for third-most in baseball. Derek Norris has been the catcher for 17 of those. However, Norris and the Padres also have nine caught steals. That ranks tied for second, so it hasn’t been all bad news. According to Defensive Runs Saved, the Padres are at +2 runs on steal attempts, which means they’ve been better than average. Runners haven’t been afraid to challenge them, but to this point the runners haven’t benefited.

Pitch-Receiving

I don’t think it’s fair to say the Padres should’ve been bracing for bad pitch-receiving. Just, things were going to be worse. In the past, their pitchers have been able to work with Rene Rivera and Yasmani Grandal, who have graded out as terrific receivers. Norris, not so much. Though he has never been disastrous, he’s got nothing on Rivera. So anyway, this year, by Matthew Carruth’s numbers, Norris has been a below-average receiver. By the Baseball Prospectus numbers, Norris right now ranks as the second-worst receiver in the majors, although there’s a bit of a gap between him and Carlos Ruiz below. Norris has done the bulk of the catching, as expected. Wil Nieves hasn’t been good or great in the backup role. Everything fits, here — Norris has never been an outstanding defender, and he’s getting accustomed to a new team, a new staff, and a new league.

The Rest

Here’s the thing. The Padres have a team -8 DRS, and a team -10 UZR. The Padres’ outfield, alone, has a -8 DRS, and a -10 UZR. The former is tied for the worst mark in baseball. The latter is alone as the worst mark in baseball. So this post is just going to skip over the infield, because it’s been totally average and boring. The outfield was always going to be the more interesting bit. The outfield was the risk.

The Outfield, then

As noted, the Padres have had the worst defensive outfield in baseball by the two primary metrics. Nearly all the innings have been handled by Justin Upton, Wil Myers, and Matt Kemp, and while it’s too early to say the numbers are where the numbers are going to end up, the numbers haven’t just been pulled out of thin air. People always say not to pay attention to small-sample defensive numbers, and though that’s good advice, it doesn’t mean there haven’t been plays that were or weren’t made. The Padres’ numbers are coming from somewhere. For example, here’s Upton falling down.

Here’s Kemp electing not to try for a catchable drive.

But, we have a pretty good idea of what Upton is as an outfielder. He’s fine, and nothing more than that. We also have a pretty good idea of what Kemp is as an outfielder. He’s below-average, and he’s probably not going to put himself at too much risk, given his injury history. The unknown was Myers, transitioning to center. He talked a confident game in spring training, and he’s young enough to handle a shift. From time to time, Myers has kind of looked the part:

That’s a good catch! Myers covered a lot of ground, and he wound up on the track and headed for the wall. Not easy. None of us would’ve been able to do that without looking stupid or getting hurt. Unfortunately, those plays have been few and far between. Below, a selection of relative Wil Myers defensive low-lights, beginning with a mistake he made Tuesday.

Home run!

Double!

Double!

Triple!

Triple!

Early on, the numbers call Myers the worst defensive center fielder in the majors, and while it is very early, and while Myers is probably still getting used to the reads and the routes, you can understand where the numbers came from. It seemed like he might be a -10 center fielder, and he’s already more than halfway there. Additionally, what I’ve shown you above is only about the ball’s initial trajectory. There are also throwing matters to keep in mind. Matt Kemp, for example, has held just a third of would-be advancers, against a right-field average of 48%. It’s worse for Myers. Myers has zero assists. He’s prevented just three out of 18 potential advances. The league average is 44%. Perhaps Myers hasn’t faced exactly average opportunities, but the way the numbers make it look is that opponents have been willing to take advantage of his arm. Encouragingly, his arm wasn’t a problem as a right fielder, but that’s a different position. Myers is trying to find a new comfort zone, in a big part of the park.

It makes sense that, early on in a position switch, a player would under-perform expectations. It takes a while to get comfortable, presumably longer than one spring training. So in theory, Myers should keep getting better, albeit only to a point. We’ll see how long the Padres can tolerate bad defense, if it’s what they continue to get.

Then there’s the fact that, as of this writing, the Padres have the second-highest wRC+ in the National League. They have the sixth-highest outfield wRC+ in the majors. They put this team together to hit, and it is hitting. Overall? The Padres are around the middle of the pack in position-player WAR, and they’re exactly in the middle of the pack in outfielder WAR. But boy are they ever more interesting than prior editions. That much cannot possibly be argued.