Free agency begins five days after the end of the World Series. As in other recent offseasons, FanGraphs is once again facilitating this offseason a contract-crowdsourcing project, the idea being to harness the wisdom of the crowds to the end of better understanding the 2013-14 free-agent market.
Note that, this year, in addition to asking readers to estimate the years/dollars each free agent is likely to receive, FanGraphs is also requesting that readers make note of how much they’d pay each free agent were they, themselves, actual GMs.
In this edition: Roy Halladay.
Some relevant information regarding Halladay:
- Has averaged 150.2 IP and 3.3 WAR over last three seasons.
- Has averaged 3.9 WAR per 180 IP over last three seasons.
- Recorded a -0.8 WAR in 62.0 IP in 2013.
- Is entering his age-37 season.
- Made $20.0M in 2013, as part of extension signed before 2010 season.
Using the form below, estimate the years and average annual dollar values both likely and ought to be received by Halladay this offseason.
Other Players: Bronson Arroyo / Carlos Beltran / A.J. Burnett / Marlon Byrd / Robinson Cano / Shin-Soo Choo / Bartolo Colon / Nelson Cruz / David DeJesus / Stephen Drew / Mark Ellis / Jacoby Ellsbury / Scott Feldman / Gavin Floyd / Matt Garza / Curtis Granderson / Omar Infante / Adam Lind / James Loney / Brian McCann / Nate McLouth / Kendrys Morales / David Murphy / Mike Napoli / A.J. Pierzynski / Carlos Ruiz / Jarrod Saltalamacchia / Juan Uribe / Chris Young.
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Should have included a question about how many millions in incentives his contract will have. Halladay will undoubtedly sign a 1 year low annual value, incentive laden deal. My prediction 5 Mil base salary with up to 10 Mil in incentives. Id even take a gamble on him and give him 1 year deal with 5 Mil base salary and up to 15 Mil in incentives based on IP and Cy Young votes received.
No idea. I put something like 1/10, but could be lower incentive laden deal. Just no clue with a guy like him. There is too much regarding health the crowd doesn’t know, that teams interested will know in order to make any kind of educated guess.
Had the phillies just let Halladay recover from freaking shoulder surgery over the offseason we could easily see his form return. Now, it’s up in the air.
I’d change that to “forced Halladay to recover.” We obviously weren’t privy to the face-to-face conversations, but from what was out there on the airwaves, Roy was eager to get back and received no push-back from the front office.
1 year at a low-base with alot of money in incentives. IF he pitches well, he is paid well.
If I had a good financial situation, it’d be so easy to give him around a 3-5 million dollar contract, with incentives built in based on innings pitched, era, all star team, and cy young votes. If he wins the cy young, he’d earn around 25 million in incentives. A lot, but I doubt he’ll do that, and if you have a good financial situation, worth the gamble.
The Rays signed Fausto Carmona to a 1 year, 3.2 mil contract with 1 mil in incentives. Using the “Would the Rays do this deal” model, my prediction is the Rays would sign Doc to a 2 year, 13 mil deal. Which means that some non-smart, non-poor team will likely double that. 3 years, 24 mil is my bet, which the Rays would not do.
That’s not the way that incentive-laden deals work. Yes, a substantial amount can be earned to add to the base but not 5 times the amount of the total contract. An agent would say, if you think my guy would do that well (to pay him up to $25MM with incentives) then you can go ahead and sign him at a higher base.
I highly doubt any team would give Halladay 3 yrs. In fact I doubt that Halladay would even be willing to sign for 3 years. Is it confirmed that he actually wabts to pitch in 2014? My impression is that Doc is a fierce competitor who will likely try to come back, but if he doesnt achieve success he is not going to sit around and collect a paycheck for 3 years. I put 1 year and 5 million, presumably the contract would contain significant incentives.
I tend to think he can get a one year deal out of a club between 8 and 12 million based on his previous track record. I don’t think he will get more than a year from anyone.
If Haren got 12m last year I think Doc could get the same 1 yr 12m.
@WillieMaysField: It’s not a close comparison at all. In 2011 Haren pitched 176 IP w/ 4.24 FIP, which meant even if he didn’t improve he’d be an average starting pitcher, about a 2 WAR player. Halladay in 2012 pitched 62 IP with a 6.14 FIP, so if he doesn’t improve substantially he’s not league average, in fact he’s below-replacement.
Halladay is worth a gamble but I think it’s fair to say that the best teams can hope for is for Halladay to be a league-average or slightly better pitcher in 2014. Assuming he can sustain a high-80s fastball and what we saw in his last start was a temporary setback, he can probably pitch to a 3.50-4.00 ERA. I believe there is virtually zero probability he can return to pre-2012 Roy Halladay.
So making a really rough guess, assume there’s say a 50% probability he is a 3 WAR pitcher, a 45% probability he’s essentially worthless (0 WAR), and a 5% chance he is a 5 WAR pitcher. And you get expected value of 1.75 WAR. So if you’re risk neutral he’s worth maybe $9-10M in expectation.
I bet he retires on a 1 day contract with the Blue Jays