Contract Crowdsourcing 2022-23: Ballot 11 of 11

© Brian Fluharty-USA TODAY Sports

Free agency begins five days after the end of the World Series. As in other recent seasons, FanGraphs is once again facilitating a contract crowdsourcing project, with the idea being to harness the wisdom of the crowd to better understand and project the 2022-23 free-agent market.

In recent years, we’ve added a few features to these ballots based on reader feedback. You now have the option to indicate that a player will only receive a minor-league contract, or won’t receive one at all. And new this year, if there is a player option, team option, or opt out in a player’s contract, you’ll be able to indicate whether you think he will remain with his current team or become a free agent. Numbers are prorated to full season where noted. The projected WAR figures are from the first cut of the 2023 Steamer600 projections.

Below are ballots for 10 of this year’s free agents — in this case, another group of starting pitchers.





Meg is the managing editor of FanGraphs and the co-host of Effectively Wild. Prior to joining FanGraphs, her work appeared at Baseball Prospectus, Lookout Landing, and Just A Bit Outside. You can follow her on twitter @megrowler.

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Pascal
1 year ago

Is it just me, or are there a lot of starters that look like they could go in the 3 years, 30-something million range? Taillon, Quintana, Syndergaard, possibly Eovaldi and Clevinger, maybe Tyler Anderson?

Last edited 1 year ago by Pascal
sadtrombonemember
1 year ago
Reply to  Pascal

The Rangers have traditionally been in on this level of starter–think Kyle Gibson, Jon Gray, Mike Minor, and Lance Lynn. Some of those guys have been huge wins for them.

I’m going to say Taillon and Stripling and Perez and Taijuan Walker (unless he gets a QO) and maybe Eovaldi fit in the 3 year, $30-$45M range. I’ll detail my thoughts in another post.

Dooduh
1 year ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

I don’t think Eovaldi falls into that group. His velo declined and had a spike in HRs and missed a chunk of time. I’d be surprised if he gets 3 yrs.

maximus74
1 year ago
Reply to  Pascal

i don’t know if clevinger really belongs in that group, he wasn’t very good this year. he might need a 1 year deal to re-establish himself after his injuries

Last edited 1 year ago by maximus74
fjtorres
1 year ago
Reply to  maximus74

If it’s offered he should take it.

sadtrombonemember
1 year ago
Reply to  Pascal

My explainer post got eaten, so, basically: I think Anderson gets the QO and accepts, otherwise he’s a good candidate for a Steven Matz-ish (so at the high end of this type of deal). I suppose it’s possible he gets it and then they hammer out that type of deal anyway.

Clevinger and Quintana probably won’t get that kind of commitment. Eovaldi and Syndergaard might bet on themselves and do a one year deal, hoping that a good year lands him a better contract. Of those, I think Syndergaard is much more likely to try something like that than Eovaldi.

fjtorres
1 year ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

Good reads.
They’re all low floors but Thor has a higher ceiling than the rest. He’s younger and he’s shown signs of being able to survive without his signature fastball. One good year might get him 4-5 years.

Somebody might risk offering a one year deal with options but he should aim a bit higher, say 2-3 years with an opt out, even at a lower AAV.

Sportszillamember
1 year ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

I think Anderson declines the option, I think he could get 3/$45 or so