Craig Edwards FanGraphs Chat – 3/12/2020

yojiveself: Assuming the season gets pushed back, let’s say a month, are we going to see a lot more doubleheaders or do you think we’ll drop down to something like 120 games?

Craig Edwards: I would imagine we’ll just see a lot less games.

Moose_Bolton: Now what?

Craig Edwards: Spring Training is done for. Everybody gets a couple weeks off to try and keep to themselves and hopefully slow the spread of COVID-19 and then we’ll see where things stand. Guessing it will be a two weeks at a time thing until the virus passes.

Corona V: Is this the year Buxton finally breaks out?

Craig Edwards: I think Buxton had broken out last year with a 5+ WAR pace, and if he stays healthy, he’ll be a star-level player. Hopefully that will happen this year.

Johnny Z: Can Voit go 40/100 given all the injuries to judge and Stanton?

Craig Edwards: I think 40 homers is a bit aggressive. 25 seems more realistic.

Morbo: Craig, internet honor requires me to post the attached picture. Can you please publish to the chat?

Craig Edwards: I’ve seen the picture and hopefully that’s enough. (it wasn’t explicit, just unnecessary).

Theo: So the MLB Pipeline sans low level MiLs resembles the NFL one, no? PW/LL, HS, NCAA internship, Pros

Craig Edwards: I think MLB will still be pretty unique given they sign 16-year-olds and high schoolers go directly into the minors. The players being pushed out are the good college players who weren’t good enough to get drafted in high school and maybe don’t project as well to the pros. With indy leagues not a strong alternative, the talent pool just loses a bunch of people, but the system remains intact. There are parallel lines with the NFL, but it operates very differently.

Carlson: Which NL Central SS candidate will have the best 2020, and the best long-term career?  Freddy Galvis, Luis Urias, Orlando Arcia, or Jose Israel Garcia?

Craig Edwards: Urias for both, I’ll say, even if he isn’t always a shortstop.

Desperate Times: What the hell am I supposed to do without baseball?!

Craig Edwards: This is a question a lot of people are going to have answer over the next month. I suspect many of us will end up watching different things on television, though reading books or learning an instrument would probably be more rewarding.

Carlson: *fewer games

Craig Edwards: fair

Guest: Did the Red Sox just win the Mookie Betts trade?

Craig Edwards: No baseball means nobody wins.

Morbo: Its submitted as proof that I’ve changed my fantasy team name in compliance with the results of a poll

Craig Edwards: you have.

James: So is playing games in empty stadiums off the table?

Craig Edwards: I don’t think it is off the table, but I do think the NBA situation is cause for alarm. Even if players aren’t as close in baseball, all the travel and interactions create considerable risk.

Kane: Do you think Jeff McNeil’s 2019 HR power is sustainable, or a result of the juiced ball?

Craig Edwards: Some of it is the juiced ball. some of it might have been luck as statcast has him about 30 points lower in terms of expected ISO.

Jake: If you had to guess, how many games do you think will be played this season?

120 games: That’s how many I think we end up having.

Craig Edwards: 120 would feel like a big win at this point. If I could push a button today and take 120 games, I would. I think it could be fewer.

Snippy P: Can Yandy get 500 ABs and hit 20/80?

Craig Edwards: I think that’s a little optimistic. He did most of his damage last year against lefties so it isn’t clear that getting him a lot more playing time will be possible or really benefit his numbers.

Maria V: Are the Rangers committed to playing Solak this year? Seems like he does not have a home.

Craig Edwards: I don’t think he needs a home to play a lot this year. The Calhoun injury likely opens up left field (assuming Calhoun is out for a while), but the Rangers don’t have good enough options throughout not to play Solak regularly.

HappyFunBall: Is MLB suspending all of ST? Or just the public exhibition games?

Craig Edwards: Pretty sure it is all of ST based on the tweets I’ve seen. Hold on.

Craig Edwards:

 

Ken Rosenthal

@Ken_Rosenthal

 

Announcement expected shortly that MLB will be suspending operations. More details to come.

12 Mar 2020

Brian: Who you got, Charmin or Quilted Northern?  I feel like Charmin is the softest but Quilted Northern is more durable

Craig Edwards: We are a Charmin household. Ultra Soft.

Super super 2: With the season likely shortened, I imagine this will have a significant impact on service time for players on rookie deals. Any sort of speculation on how that might shake out?

Craig Edwards: I’m sure that’s something that will be worked out between the union and the league.

Kane: Do you think Kelenic will be up this year?  If so, how many AB’s could you see him getting?

Craig Edwards: I doubt it. Barely played Double-A last year. Would be ultra-aggressive for a 2018 position player draftee. He’s good, but probably not that good.

KuruptFM: Travis Shaw over or under 105 WRC+?

Craig Edwards: Have to take the under based on last year.

Bart: All injured players will get extra time to heal and prepare for the season.   That’s a good thing if you are a Yankees fan.

Craig Edwards: It’s still not a good thing.

Frankie Carbone: What’s the reasoning for 120 games as an optimistic season? Seems like they’d be incentive to a) hold more double headers or b) just extend the season through the fall

Craig Edwards: They can’t really just keep playing through the fall due to weather. A few double-headers on the weekends might be feasible, but during the week it’s not going to draw any more fans and just make the players more exhausted. Even one doubleheader every weekend only makes up around 15 games. If you start on Memorial Day, that ends up at around 120 games.

Lord Explosion Murder: I would totally support the suspension of the baseball season if I thought the containment strategy had a prayer of working. But I don’t think it does. But if I say this publicly, people act like I’m coming out in favor of child sacrifice or something.

Craig Edwards: If you don’t try containment, then everyone gets it at once and hospital are overloaded and many people die. Containment doesn’t need to prevent people from getting it to work. It just has to slow things down so that society can handle everyone who is ill due to the virus as well as all of the normal injuries and sicknesses that require care.

Favre: Kim from cardinals or kyle gibson for success this year?

Craig Edwards: Gibson has the clearer path to playing time so I’ll say him, though I like what I’ve seen from Kim.

Manfred: Craig, who had the 5 best offseasons? 5 worst?

Craig Edwards: Yankees, White Sox, Dodgers, Reds all had good offseasons. Red Sox, Cleveland, Cubs, Cardinals, and of course Astros for the worst.

Soul Searching: Any good books or tv shows you suggest while I’m waiting for baseball to start up?

Craig Edwards: That’s mostly a matter of taste and depends on the kind of mood you’re in. You can watch great shows like the Wire, Breaking Bad, Friday Night Lights or NewsRadio or you can watch good shows like Brooklyn-99 that now have enough epsiodes that it takes a while to get through.

Craig Edwards: As for books, I’m not sure where I would start, but if you are really stuck in your house for a few weeks and not working, reading Inifinite Jest is a full-time job. Vonnegut or Graham Greene have a bunch of quicker reads. Rushdie or Toni Morrison are also good reads, I’ve found. Don’t work too hard at it, just give it a start and see if you lose yourself in it.

Pete: Giolito, Cease, Kopech, Lopez.. Who do you expect to have the best career as a starter?

Craig Edwards: Giolito has the head start, but I’ll still go with Kopech with all that talent. They are both ahead of the other two by quite a bit.

John Oleruds Helmet: Mr Craig!! Do you ever get hooked on a player regardless of injury/ performance?? My guy is Nate Karns, I’ll never give up on him!!

Craig Edwards: I was rooting for Allen Craig for a really long time to get back where he was.

Rick: Do you think it is a possibility the season is cancelled entirely?

Craig Edwards: It’s possible. We really have no idea exactly how this is going to play out.

Clock: So does someone like Pearson get called up earlier now?

Craig Edwards: I don’t think it is going to work that way. You can’t have 172 days equal a season when there aren’t 172 days in a season.

Chris Sale’s Elbow: Are there any comparable cases to Sale where he has off-and-on inflammation in the elbow for a year but then it heals and he doesn’t need TJ?

Craig Edwards: I think that’s been the case for David Price, but apparently he has a very unique injury. I think it probably happens sometimes in terms of putting off surgery a while, Chris Sale just happens to be one of the games’ best pitchers so we closely monitor his innings and shutdowns more than others.

Guest: O/U 5/15 for MLB opening day?

Craig Edwards: I would expect later, but it is really hard to know.

mad pony: Pete Alonso hit 36 homers in 2018 and obviously went off last year….Luis Robert hit 32 bombs last year in minors – do you see Robert hitting over 30 bombs this year?

Craig Edwards: I don’t. Robert improved a ton last season, but it will be a bit harder to get to that power this year as the level of pitching improves. He might not be all that good offensively this year, but still be a valuable player with his glove and on the bases. He could be a 3+ WAR player with an average hitting line.

Sum: I think one of the most interesting things about a potential delay to the season is ramping pitchers back up for games. that’s a huge part of spring, and if games are cancelled until they’re not, pitchers could be thrown for a loop.

Craig Edwards: I think it will be at least a couple weeks of ramping up. It’s especially difficult because nobody knows when things might start. Some pitchers will probably throw simulated games every five days while others will ramp down and hope to ramp back up whenever they can.

Guest: How does question volume compare to a normal day?

Craig Edwards: We’ve understandably had a lighter than normal queue of questions today, so I’ll go ahead and wrap things up. Everyone stay safe and follow recommendations by the relevant scientific authorities to wash your hands, limit interactions, etc. And do your best to stay sane and find something positive to do with your time.