Craig Edwards FanGraphs Chat – 3/5/2020

Moose_Bolton: Has there ever been a time that the sample size of Spring Training has been enough to convince you that a player’s performance has genuinely changed?

Craig Edwards: In terms of box score statistics, not that I can remember. We’ll get to the end of spring and a pitcher having one good game where he’s finally going five innings and has a good outing and that’s probably more meaningful than the rest of the spring to show that he’s ready, but I’d probably want to have seen the outing to be sure. If a pitcher is throwing harder, that’s something to monitor. If they’ve been working on a new pitch and it’s still being thrown and looks good at the end of spring training, that’s meaningful.

Craig Edwards: The undercurrent of all those statements is the scouting side, not the statistical. Seeing players do things in spring is much more important than seeing a player went two for four in the box score having no idea who he was facing or what the quality of opponent/contact was.

Mountie Votto: Which Reds RP ends with the most WAR this year? Iglesias or the field?

Craig Edwards: You should probably always take the field in cases like this given any one pitcher could have a nice breakout or Iglesias could hurt.

Beeks: How excited should I be as a Brewers fan right now???

Craig Edwards: The team should be in contention for the fourth straight season. That’s something to be pretty excited about. It does look like the team is taking a slight step back from where they were a year ago, but signing Yelich to that extension should hopefully make up for some of that in terms of enthusiasm.

Jamie: How do signing bonuses work with regards to the luxury tax if a player gets traded?  In my head I’ve been wondering why we don’t see more mid-tier FA’s get slightly overpaid on frontloaded/bonus based contracts by rebuilding teams and then flipped to contenders at a more reasonable rate – a guy like Alex Wood seems like a good pick for this sort of deal (were he not already on a team).  Is that a practical thought or will players that can get multimillion dollar deals just ignore rebuilding teams as long as they have other offers?

Craig Edwards: The competitive balance tax salary is the Average Annual Value of the Contract so front- or backloading a deal or including a signing bonus doesn’t matter. It’s all about total guaranteed value divided by years.

Mountie Votto: What does playing time for Nick Senzel look like this year?

Craig Edwards: I honestly don’t know, but I sure hope he gets and he’s healthy all season.

Danny K.: Regarding the prospect valuation study you did back in 2018, given that an 80 FV player was only theoretical at the time, how would you value someone like Wander Franco?

Craig Edwards: I don’t know, like $150 M- $180 M present day value, maybe. I think if there were actual bidding for his services or he were declared a free agent or something, his market might end up less than what he’s actually worth, which is probably something like $250 – $300 M over the next decade just because of fear of failure given he’s not yet in the majors.

Vader: Hi Craig!  What do you think the Dodgers do with Stripling? Will he eventually be traded so he can start, or do they just keep him in the swing role out of the pen as just another depth piece?

Craig Edwards: I think they probably just move him back and forth as needed. If the Dodgers don’t have to trade him, they shouldn’t as starting pitching depth is very valuable in a long season and Stripling’s ability to pitch in the pen is doubly helpful.

Johnny5Alive: This “mic’ up” of the players during these spring training games has been actually kind of fun.  I imagine part of it is because they are meaningless games so the guys are more jovial than serious, and I imagine it won’t continue into regular season ball.  But you can’t have watched clips from yesterday’s Mets games with Alonso, McNeil, Smith and Davis all miked up and riffing on each other and not think that is a good direction for baseball to go…

Craig Edwards: I think it is something that works better in spring or at the All-Star game, but it might be nice to see it occasionally in season, maybe on some MLB network broadcasts once a week or something. We’d at least find out if players would still be as loose.

Vader: Considering the injuries to the Yankees outfield, do you think Andujar gets regular at bats and sees over 550 plate appearances?

Craig Edwards: It’s certainly a possibility though he’s going to have to keep hitting and playing well enough defensively, though if he just hits, he can still DH, too.

Nick: Which single unit (e.g., Reds’ outfield, Blue Jays’ starting rotation, Phillies’ bullpen) will see the biggest improvement from 2019 to 2020?

Craig Edwards: It might actually be the Phillies rotation, though Mets bullpen, Angels infield and White Sox outfield should all tke big steps forward.

Soto: What is it like being the Cardinals’ puff piece guy?

Craig Edwards: It’s great. It means that people are generally paying attention to whether I’m the author on pieces.

The Jay Strain: baseball salaries are weird – i feel bad for guys like Jon Lucroy who took an early deal and probably missed out on career earnings of 80+ mil and then someone like Edwin Jackson can hit free agency at the right time and score 50+ mil.

Craig Edwards: That’s why there probably should be some balancing to get players money earlier which would be more fair, but also prevent some of those extensions that provide security and work out so well for the teams.

Mark: Over/under 50.5IP for Chris Sale this season?

Craig Edwards: yikes. I’ll say over, but it isn’t looking good right now.

Mountie Votto: Follow-up question…which Reds RP has the best chance for your aforementioned “nice breakout”

Craig Edwards: Stephenson was pretty darn good last season, but Garrett, Lorenzen and Strop could all be worth a win or more this season.

dezre: Does Rafael Devers make any more gains, or was last year his peak performance? Would be hard to believe, at such a young age, that he doesn’t get a little better…

Craig Edwards: I certainly wouldn’t predict more than six wins for almost any player, though Devers is just 23 so a few more walks and a few more homers could put him in MVP consideration.

brad penny for your thoughts: how do you think fowlers playing time is going to work out?  will he be starter on opening day regardless of ST performance?  any way StL could try and move him?

Craig Edwards: I think odds are he is the starter on Opening Day. I think he could get his time cut some if he struggles. The $33 million owed to him make him hard to move to begin with. If he struggles, St. Louis would have to pay down nearly all the money and send him to a place Fowler was willing to go. There probably isn’t a great match out there. That would require St. Louis to just cut him and that probably isn’t likely. I could see Fowler transitioning to a fourth outfielder role if O’Neill hits and Carlson continues to rake.

Craig Edwards: I wrote on the outfield situation earlier this week. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-cardinals-messy-outfield-situation/

Kevin: Article Idea if you want it: Trea Turner has stolen 20 of his 78 bases the past 2 years against the Mets, caught once. Maybe he’s not the most elite base stealer, just the 1 with the best opportunity. Reminds me of Torres HR total

Craig Edwards: I think it says more about the Mets than Turner.

Mountie Votto: With Freddy Galvis going down with a quad strain, where do the Reds go at SS? Assuming it’s at least somewhat serious, they can’t actually roll with Farmer/Blandino can they?

Craig Edwards: I wouldn’t think so. I wonder if there’s a small deal to be made out there.

Vader: Will D May be a regular in the Dodger rotation by next season, or will the Dodger depth keep him in Stripling territory?

Craig Edwards: They might just move him around to keep his innings down.

Christian: Should the Red Sox bother trying to fill their second base void? Or is this season a lost cause after the Betts/Price trade and the Sale injury?

Craig Edwards: They might as well give Chavis a shot, I suppose and then see if Peraza can rebound a bit. Not sure there’s much they can really do about it right now.

robert: Thoughts on CarMart’s spring? Does he look like he can be back to 2016 production?

Craig Edwards: He’s looked good from what I’ve seen. Just need to get him stretched out and hope for no more injury complications. Number four type starter seems like a more reasonable expectation right now, but in stretches he looks like a pitcher who could slot right behind Jack Flaherty.

Vader: I’m hearing good things about Eovaldi this Spring. Sounds like his velocity is back and he’s been effective. Do you believe he can take a step forward and be a viable starter?

Craig Edwards: It’s certainly possible, but he’s got a few more hurdles to clear.

Theo Epstein: After ending 2 World Series droughts, my legacy as one of the greatest MLB execs ever is secure. Rather than going to a new MLB franchise, should I pull a DePodesta and sign on to be the GM of the Chicago Bulls?

Craig Edwards: That’s probably asking too much of Epstein.

Jason N: The Padres want to dump the Wil Myers contract.  Does the player cost they have to give up change much if they do in offseason vs mid season?  My hypothesis:  Myers is most valued if packaged with prospects to non-contenders during offseason or with expiring Contract talent to contenders mid season (think: Richards and Yates).  I don’t hear much about trade value changes when less control over the player is the desired thing.

Craig Edwards: On July 31, Myers value as a player likely will have not changed at all, but he will be owed something close to $15 million less money. His negative value gets reduced over time because the money owed goes down. Plus it is easier to take on a smaller amount in a single season when you know where you are in terms of contention and payroll and have better planning for 2021 and 2022.

Kevin: How much do coaching philosophies change teams? Thinking about Matheny in KC (not going to run), or Madden in LAA. Or do styles typically change given the personnel? I just don’t want to see Justin Upton hitting leadoff to get him out of a funk

Craig Edwards: I think player personnel dictates the most, but the organizational philosophy should flow through to the manager. Teams pick managers that can execute whatever philosophy they already have, generally. It will be interesting to see what Maddon’s philosophy is right now in LA. With Tampa Bay and Chicago, he was very effective at constantly moving guys around the field and keeping them ready and on their toes for whatever, but the last few years in Chicago as players were established, we saw less of that and there might not be as many opportunities with the Angels, though LaStella and Fletcher do present those kinds of opportunities.

Kevin: Do you think Cavan Biggio could be Brian Dozier of old? On-base skills, power/speed combo seem to be in place.

Craig Edwards: Maybe, but we might be underrating Brian Dozier a bit. He was popping a ton of home runs before the superjuiced ball. I don’t think the power is quite to that level with Biggio.

Vader: I’m hearing good things about Josh James this Spring. Do you believe he can take a step forward and run with the 5th starter job?

Craig Edwards: It’s possible, though the things he’s been asked to do so far in spring aren’t that different from what he’s been successful with so far. The next few outings should tell us a lot more.

Guest: In terms of competitiveness, how will the olympics under the new team construction rules compare to the WBC? No major leaguers but a larger amount of high minors top prospects

Craig Edwards: It will still be significantly below. WBC has gotten great participation from the game’s best players while even those high end prospects aren’t necessarily ready to be even average at the big leagues right now.

dave in slc: does your gut tell you carlson begins the year up with the cards or down in aaa?

Craig Edwards: I’m 50/50 on it, but I’ll go ahead and say St. Louis because it would be more fun.

Sam: Is WAR missing out on something in evaluating positional versatility. For example, players like Jeff McNeil or early career Kris Bryant played corner outfield instead of there natural infield positions to help get better bats in their teams’ lineups around them, however, WAR penalizes this fact in two ways – by giving them a worse positional adjustment and because their defensive metrics will be slightly worse. Is there a context neutral solution to this problem?

Craig Edwards: I’m not sure anything really needs to be done about it. Taking Bryant for example, when he made about one-third of his starts in the outfield in 2016, the positional difference between that and 2017 was a total of three runs. The main thing versatility does is keep that player in the lineup and allows them to keep producing.

Vader: Do you think the Phillies try to re-sign Realmuto after this season, even when they don’t make the playoffs? Or who signs him next year, considering the Yankees and Dodgers don’t need a catcher?

Craig Edwards: I would imagine they would try to bring him back given next year’s FA class isn’t great and I doubt they are in play for Mookie Betts. I would think the Rangers, Angels, Mariners, Astros, and Mets would all be interested.

Vader: What’s your best guess on the number of innings the Angels allow Ohtani to pitch this season, and will they allow him to go 6 innings a start?

I’d hate to see the Angels waste a year of Ohtani!

Craig Edwards: I don’t know, maybe 120? I would think six innings would be reasonable if he’s pitching a good game, but more five inning starts is more valuable than fewer starts but going six innings.

Jerome: What extension offer could the A’s present to Semien that he would have to think hard about accepting? Is there a chance the A’s could get him for something like 4/$85 or 5/$100? (Obviously I’m putting aside for the moment that the A’s ownership probably won’t allow such spending).

Craig Edwards: I could see something like that. There are some pretty big variables with Semien that makes projecting him difficult. His one good season with the bat was due in part to a big increase in power that we don’t know will be the same if the ball changes. If Semien repeats last season, $100 million looks laughably low, but if he goes back to being a four-win player, then we are in the ballpark.

Kevin: How much of a sample do you need for a reasonable assumption of skills change? Jorge Soler: 7.5% and 28.9% K & walk rate 1st half, 14.8% and 23% second half (Sept was his worst month so its not a question of competition). Something here?

Craig Edwards: I think in this case, you are better off just looking at the full season numbers. Those walk numbers could be pitchers respecting Soler more without him actually changing who he was. If he’s doing the same thing after 150 PA this season, then I’m more likely to believe that second half was more real than the full season numbers when talking about his current talent level.

mike: After reviewing the Yankees system yesterday, it looks like Law’s rating them 5th or 6th best is overly high..they look middle of the pack to me. What do you think?

Craig Edwards: They have a ton of depth, but lack high-end guys. You can read Eric’s report here. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/top-54-prospects-new-york-yankees/

Johnny5Alive: Mets rotation – Seems Porcello is guaranteed and Matz-Wacha are battling.  But should that really be the case? Recent Matz has been just as good as Porcello, and better than Wacha.  I know in the grand scheme all will get starts, its more about the perception that Porcello deserves the spot

Craig Edwards: We also don’t know what Porcello was told when he signed. It’s a bad look to tell a guy he’s a starter, please sign here, and then not do that.

Bungaree Chubbins: Who plays more center field in LA, Bellinger, Betts, or the rest of the dodgers utility guys

Craig Edwards: probably Bellinger I would think.

ricky nolasco maks more $ than u: Did Milwaukee get a steal with that Yelich contract?

Craig Edwards: I don’t think so. I wrote a little about it here. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/how-good-will-christian-yelich-be-in-his-t…

Craig Edwards: I think Milwaukee paid near market rates for Yelich’s expected production from age-31 through age-36. Given those years are three years away, we would have expected a deeper discount. It’s a good deal for Yelich.

Craig Edwards: That’s going to do it for me today. Thanks for all the questions.