Craig Edwards FanGraphs Chat – 4/9/2020

Craig Edwards: Welcome all. Thanks for keeping these chats lively despite a lack of actual baseball.

Craig Edwards: Before we get going, here’s a few things to think about in the form of articles I’ve written in the last week. Today, i discussed the need for testing in order to get baseball going on and the difficulties we are having. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/covid-19-roundup-testing-could-be-key-for-…

Craig Edwards: Yesterday, I asked for your sense of when the season will begin and what it will look like. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/how-optimistic-are-you-that-the-season-wil…

Craig Edwards: I also looked at reliever value in a shorter season.https://blogs.fangraphs.com/assessing-reliever-value-in-a-shorter-seas…

Craig Edwards: On Monday, I proposed a version of HORSE in the absence of actual baseball. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/mlb-should-broadcast-its-own-version-of-ho…

Craig Edwards: And last Friday, I talked about the difficulties of adjusting our lives in the pandemic. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/talking-about-sports-without-sports/

LioneeR: What type of team do you think benefits the most from a truncated season that includes scheduled double headers?  A deep team(Cardinals) or a stars and scrubs kind of team?

Craig Edwards: I think the team with depth is better if the schedule gets condensed. You are going to have to dig a bit deeper for pitchers in both starting and relief and your bench players will get a greater proportion of starts. This is particularly true if a bunch of games are played in the heat of Arizona.

Craig Edwards: If there’s just a short season but a normal schedule, the equivalent stars and scrubs team is probably better off because they can play those stars more often.

Guest: Better pitcher: Lance Lynn or Lucas Giolito

Craig Edwards: Lynn was better last year and the projections say Giolito is slightly better on a rate basis with the two even overall. I’ll go with Lynn in part because I’ve always been a big of his but also seems like a better option durability-wise.

John: Mize or Manning for 2021

Craig Edwards: If you think Mize will get more big league time this year, I could see you taking Mize because of that experience, but I think I’ll still defer to Eric, who put Manning higher. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/top-38-prospects-detroit-tigers/

Craig Edwards: It’s obviously close: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2020-top-100-prospects/

Andrew: So is the minor league season gonna get canceled?

Craig Edwards: It’s not looking good for the minors right now. MLB can play games with empty seats and still make money. The minors can’t, and even if they could, I’m not sure teams would be too willing to just send prospects all over the country if it isn’t safe. There would be have to be a really great improvement to see the minors play this season. I hope they can play, but the odds are much less than whatever you think the odds of an MLB season.

Chris: If the season gets cancelled will the draft order remain the same?

Craig Edwards: I would guess, yes.

Gashouse Gorilla: What impact do you see on talent development, in the absence of both institutional training and competition?  Will this delay future call-ups just as a function of less time preparing, or do you see it also as a business point that goes into the next CBA as well?

Craig Edwards: It all depends on how the rest of the year goes. For top prospects, you can make up some of the lost development in the Arizona Fall League, if that still happens, but if there end up being a bunch of minor leaguers at the team complex for the summer, it’s been the argument of MLB that players will develop better there. If there’s a shortened season, it would make more sense to call up the most talented players who might or might not be ready because if they are ready and play well, it is more likely to make the difference in making the playoffs. I don’t think it will be a big deal come next spring once things come back to normal, though the Kris Bryant grievance basically said you can manipulate service time, which is something that should get addressed in the next CBA after 2021.

John: How many years of baseball not being played do you think it would take for there to be a material loss of interest in the sport? Would a lost 2020 be a crushing blow? Three years? Ten years?

Craig Edwards: It depends what’s there to replace it. There’s going to be a bunch of kids who would’ve fallen in love with the game this year who now won’t and you might not get them in future seasons. As for current fans losing interest, I think it would take at least two missed seasons. There would be a problem in getting many fans back just due to exposure. How many sports networks are going to get dropped if there’s not sports for two years. How do you get the games back on television for enough people? These are all questions I hope we never have to answer.

Pumpsie Green: If there is no season, will Troy Tulowitzki’s salary be the highest in MLB this year? Or would his buy-out be cut?

Craig Edwards: I think Jon Lester’s buyout is like $10 million, which would be more than double Tulowitzki’s.

Squirrelly Squirrelington III: If you were a GM right now, how would you be attempting to continue player development through the uncertainty and certain restrictions posed by the current environment?

Craig Edwards: I think maintaining contact with the players and keeping an open dialogue is important. The other thing is making Spring Training Redux as efficient and effective as possible without burning people out. The biggest thing is making sure the players are educated about how to stay safe amid the pandemic to make sure they do everything they can to avoid COVID-19.

Pumpsie Green: At my work, if someone tests positive they do a deep-clean and we’re back at work in a few days. Wouldn’t it be the same in baseball, if they did start up and someone tested positive?

Craig Edwards: That’s why testing is so important. You need to be able to have quick, reliable tests so you understand the exposure. If a player tests positive and you know how long it will take for another person exposed to get a positive test if they have it, then you can keep testing and have that deep clean period, but you would still have to take at least a few days off.

Curtis: Has anyone done any research into double headers regarding specific player stats?  Have certain players performed well or poorly?  Are samples just too small?

Craig Edwards: I don’t think there are enough doubleheaders to make too much of it, plus so many players get one half off anyway.

Pumpsie Green: I’m guessing AZ for a couple weeks of ST and the first 6-8 weeks of the season, then in ballparks with fans starting in July or August. Maybe 80-100 games?

Craig Edwards: I would take that today, if possible.

Pumpsie Green: My apologies – Tulo’s $14 million for this year is what I was asking about.

Craig Edwards: I don’t know how those salaries work out. Same thing with David Wright.

Jackelder: I’m hoping for a Top 50 SP year for Kenta Maeda.  Is this wishful thinking, or reasonably likely?

Craig Edwards: Last season, his 2.5 WAR ranked 51st among pitchers with at least 100 innings and he only made 26 starts with the rest of his appearances from the pen. If he starts the whole year, however long that is, I could easily seem him among the top 50 pitchers in the game.

Pumpsie Green: Which teams will have the most to spend in FA next year?

Craig Edwards: That depends on the owners and how much they are willing to do business as usual next year versus trying to take a step back if they lose a bunch of revenues this season. If there’s no season, then the Red Sox efforts to get under the tax amount don’t even count and they would still be a three-time payer in 2021.

Chris: Any word on if Aaron judge is healthy? I’m debating taking him in tonight’s round of my fantasy leagues zoom in person draft

Craig Edwards: No idea. I doubt we’ll really know until spring training starts again.

Bored: Are the Cubs one of the biggest losers if this season is lost? They would be losing Chatwood and Quintana as well as down to a one year team option on Lester and Rizzo. They would also be facing their final year of control on Schwarber, Baez, and Bryant. Not only would they miss out one of their last two years with this core, but they would hold less leverage in any potential attempts to jumpstart a rebuild through trades.

Craig Edwards: “losing” Chatwood?

Craig Edwards: I do think that since the Cubs have a massive win-now window between 2020 and 2021 with potentially Rizzo, Schwarber, Baez, and Bryant all gone or at least older. Given that, I think a lost season would be more negative for the Cubs than most other teams. They also really need development at the minor league level to avoid having a huge dropoff and they might be losing a year of that, as well.

Rich: Hi Craig.  How many homers would you expect from C.J. Cron this year (based on 162 games)?  He hit 30 in 2018, and 25 last year, despite missing time with an injured thumb that affected his second-half numbers.  He’s moving to a big park, but my understanding is that Comerica is actually better for right-handed pull-hitters than Target Field.  Thanks for chatting!

Craig Edwards: I’d take the under on 30, but 25 seems reasonable on a 162-game pace.

Rich: What kind of numbers do you expect from Chris Archer this year, now that he has abandoned his terrible Ray Searage sinker and gone back to his Tampa Bay pitch mix?  Second-half numbers last year (he junked the sinker in May) were pretty encouraging. . . .

Craig Edwards: I hope he does well. I’ve always liked him and he still struck out 27% of batters last year. I’m hopeful, but not overly optimistic.

Chris: Should the tigers lean into pitching and take Hancock and rocker/leiter the next two drafts so that they can run out mize, Manning, skubal, Hancock and rocker

Craig Edwards: That’s a better question for Eric, but they shouldn’t worry too much about their current pro mix and just take the best player available.

R.O.U.S.: Hard to see filling stadiums with fans as a good idea at any point this season (though I could be wrong). Do you think playing in empty stadiums would materially change the game? If so, how?

Craig Edwards: You do wonder a little about adrenaline and whether a pitcher might not be able to dial it up quite to the level they want when they want something extra. I think it is something that will take getting used to, but I don’t think that would take a huge amount of time. I think where they play the games and the stadium might have a bigger effect if there are a bunch of games in Arizona.

Pumpsie Green: Do you like posting polls? How many teams would you like to have in MLB playoffs: 2, 4, 6, 8, 10, 12, 14, 16.

Craig Edwards: In a typical year, I like the current setup but would be okay with two divisions per league and the same number of teams. As for this year, I wrote on that here: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/modifying-the-2020-playoffs-to-account-for…

Aceman: Asked Dan this earlier,Solack or Arraez  this year and future?Said he likes both but would go Arraez slightly  cause of hit tool,how bout you?

Craig Edwards: They had similar seasons last year, but Arraez has better projections as a batter. If Solak can hit for a bit more power, he could eclipse Arraez though I don’t have enough to say he will with enough confidence to go away from the projections.

Guest: Current odds of MLB in 2020?  Also, if MiLB is cancelled, chance of some type of deal that would permit guys like Wander Franco to play MLB without accruing MLB service time (i.e., $$).  If MiLB is cancelled, he would not likely play, anyway.

Craig Edwards: I think it is about 60/40 in favor of something. That deal wouldn’t happen, though, even if there is no minor league season. If teams want those players in the majors, just give them the service time. I’m not sure why the union would give in on that.

Bored: Losing Chatwood in the sense that they just have more innings to replace between him, lester, and Quintana, but yes giving those innings to literally anybody else could viewed as “a win for the cubs” (sorry I had to)

Craig Edwards: I know, though unfortunately for the team, the Cubs don’t have anybody to take those innings from Chatwood now.

Chris: If the milb season gets cancelled, how will that effect the draft? Meaning, teams models value players of certain ages at certain levels, does the lost development time mean teams will drop college hitters down on their board? Will injured players move up to their talent value?

Craig Edwards: With no guarantee of a season, we could see teams take more chances, but I’m sure others will want to take safer picks because they will not be able to spread around risk in the same way they would in a full draft. If a team wants a college hitter because they think they will move quickly through the system, they will still take that player even if they lose the rest of the season in development because they player is still probably a quick mover if they can get the season going next year.

Roy Hobbs: I am a glass half full guy, so I am going with the assumption of the season starting in May with empty stadiums.  I think it will be really interesting to see how teams react if they are playing more doubleheaders with less off days (not that they had many to begin with).  Will more teams use an opener to limit starters to 4 innings, for example, so they can start every 4th or 5th day?  Will starters be asked to go longer into games to save the bullpen?  Who knows.  I would love to see the projection of each team if the season started in May and each team had 7 starting pitchers.

Craig Edwards: They’ll need to expand the rosters to make it possible, and I would imagine they will. I could definitely see more openers and piggybacking guys for 3-4 innings to get through 16 games in 14 days or whatever they might do.

Bring Back Jeff&Mookie&Baseball: Craig, have you played D&D? If so, what’s your go-to class?

Craig Edwards: I have not.

Magic Kingdome: If the season cannot start until September, would a World Cup style tournament with a group stage and then 16-team knockout rounds make sense?

Craig Edwards: Yes. Yes it would.

Pumpsie Green: If you could only pick one stat each for offense, defence and pitching, what are your favourite measures of prowess?

Craig Edwards: wRC+ for offense, FIP for pitching, and I probably use UZR the most for fielding but I think it is best to use an amalgam of defensive stats and seasons to get an accurate picture on defense.

Roy Hobbs: And thank you for having the chat.  It is still great to read fresh thoughts on the game.

Craig Edwards: Thank you. I really appreciate the opportunity to answer questions and I’m glad people are still interested in talking baseball in these uncertain times. With that, I will close things up. Stay safe.