Modifying the 2020 Playoffs to Account for a Shortened Season
Yesterday, I discussed what 2019 might have looked like with a shortened season. At the same time, Dan Szymborski showed us how a shortened season impacts playoff odds. The main takeaway from both posts is an understanding that a shortened season creates more randomness and a greater possibility of teams having a chance to make the postseason. The corollary here is that is that it is much tougher in a shortened season to tell which teams are actually better that their competitors. Ben Clemens showed earlier in the offseason that expanded playoffs as reportedly proposed by the league would actually disincentivize competition. However, in a shortened season in which good teams might be left out of the postseason due to the random variation that usually takes care of itself over 162 games, there’s an argument to be made for getting creative and expanding the playoff field, if only for this season.
When addressing the playoff structure, it’s important to keep certain objectives in mind. Winning the division should be of some importance so that two good teams battling it out still have a reason to play hard toward the end of the season even if both are comfortably in playoff contention. Making the playoffs needs to give teams a chance at eventually winning the title, or at least an easy shot at home games that fans (and owners) enjoy. Both problems were issues in MLB’s expanded playoff proposal as most division winners saw their playoff odds go way down and the additional teams making the playoffs weren’t very likely to have a single home game if they even made the playoffs.
The current playoff format is fine enough, but to ensure that good teams aren’t being excluded from playing for a championship, I am proposing that for this season, the field of teams in the playoffs expands. I have two potential proposals, but both have the same key feature: a round-robin tournament at the end of the season.
Proposal One
- The divisions do not change.
- Three division winners advance to the LDS.
- Five teams play a round-robin tournament.
- Top two teams from that face off in a Wild Card game, with any ties broken by regular season record.
Having eight of 15 teams in each league make the playoffs is not what I would want to see in most seasons, but if baseball is only playing 100 or so regular season games, getting more teams into the playoffs seems a little more fair. Instead of having a few three-game series, having all five teams play each other seems like a better way to generate excitement across the sport. This would also guarantee two home games to every team that made the playoffs. Having the tiebreaker be regular season record would provide some incentive for teams to not shut things down early if they were clearly in a playoff position with a few weeks to go.
The schedule would look something like this:
| Away 1 | Home 1 | Away 2 | Home 2 | Off | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wednesday | A | B | D | C | E |
| Thursday | A | D | E | B | C |
| Friday | B | D | C | E | A |
| Saturday | E | A | B | C | D |
| Sunday | C | A | D | E | B |
An extra off-day could be built in to stagger travel and give more games exclusive time slots given that both leagues would be playing with this setup, but the schedule above provides an example of how this might work. At the end of the week, all five teams would have played each other one time. The team with the best record would host the Wild Card game. Given the small number of games, a tie is likely for second place, with regular season record breaking that tie. This format would generate considerable excitement with one-third of the sport’s teams playing in massively important games to stay alive followed by the traditional winner-take-all Wild Card game heading into baseball’s more traditional format. There are other ways to accomplish the same thing.
Proposal Two
- Unchanged divisions or two divisions per league.
- Division winners (or top two division winners if there are three divisions) advance to the LDS.
- Six teams play a round-robin tournament.
- Top tourney team makes the LDS.
- Second and third teams face off in a Wild Card game with any ties broken by regular season record.
The same number of teams make the playoffs in proposal one, but in this case, there is extra incentive to win a division with a better record than other division winners, and the round-robin teams have more to play for given two spots to the LDS are at stake. Each team would still be guaranteed two home games, though the teams with the three best records in the round-robin tourney would get three home games instead of two. The schedule would look something like this:
| Away 1 | Home 1 | Away 2 | Home 2 | Away 3 | Home 3 | Off | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wednesday | D | A | E | B | F | C | |
| Thursday | B | A | C | D | F | E | |
| Friday | E | D | A | C | B, F | ||
| Saturday | C | B | D | F | A, E | ||
| Sunday | A | E | B | F | C, D | ||
| Monday | D | B | F | A | E | C |
Again, the dates aren’t set in stone and off-days could be modified, but we have a week-long set of games with playoff energy where every matchup matters.
The regular season matters a great deal for MLB because it serves to eliminate pretenders and separate the good teams from the mediocre over a long season. A shorter season affects that opportunity, so modifications should be made. Simply adding more short series isn’t overly compelling and actually serves to increase randomness. Giving every potential contender four or five more games to prove themselves might not be as good as a full 162-game season, but it is better than most available alternatives.
Because I’m curious, here’s a poll.
Craig Edwards can be found on twitter @craigjedwards.
Not a fan of changing up the makeup of the divisions/leagues, but I am intrigued by the idea of an expanded playoff format given the current landscape.
I like expanding it, but with a Japanese style bracket. 8 teams in each league.
First round 8 plays 5, 7 plays 6
Highest remaining seed plays 4
Lowest remaining seed plays 3
Highest remaining plays 2
Lowest remaining plays 1
Those winners play each other and are league champs.
Then those play each other for WS.
This way there are 5 rounds, 16 teams. But top 2 teams in each league get a bye to round 3. 3rd and 4th seeds get a bye to the 2nd round. Seeds 5-8 have to win 5 straight series.
Personally I think we’re going to be lucky if the season ends up being any more than 60-80 games. So my proposal is: everyone makes the playoffs, best record in each league gets a bye. There isn’t going to be any “fair” answer here. Might as well make it fun.
Here’s a crazy idea: extend the regular season as long as possible, and play a mostly balanced schedule in each league and first place in each league plays in World Series starting in early November. Have all the southern/dome teams play at home more in October to mitigate cold weather.
I know, way too long. First 4 sentences are most important, for understanding my ideas. The Paragraphs expand on those, trying, but not perfect, to get the biggest objections out of the way.
I like Round Robin formats in general.
I think I’d prefer one expanded Round Robin Round and then the World Series.
I want to expand that Round Robin to be 3 games between each and every team that makes the playoffs.
I want a fully balanced schedule (no divisions, same home vs away, no interleague) to make seeding easy and clear who won the season and deserves the playoffs the most, best as possible, realizing that when they play whom (both where they played last/Time of Season) will still be variables.
I’m not going to spend time scheduling Expanded Round Robin out, many permutations, things to consider. I am also not sure how many teams I want in the playoffs. I kind of feel like I want any team with a winning record, esp the shorter the season is, but if you balance it out and eliminate divisions then seeding based on record should be fine. I know I want them to really reschedule the season and try and make it as balanced as possible. I.E. eliminate Interleague, for this season. I’m thinking also eliminate divisions as well, for this season only. Play an even number of Home and Away games btwn all 14 others. 3 game series x 2 x 14 = 84 game season 4 game series x 2 x 14 = 112 game season 5 (2 and 3 games series) x 2 x 14 = 140 game season. Seed the teams based on their record. Have either a 6 or 8 team round robin that has 3 games btwn all 6 or 8, The 3 or 4 with the best record get 2 home and 1 away btwn every team, which means the 3 or 4 with the worst records get 1 home and 2 away. There will probably be off days and time of day and other such considerations to have as a reason to let seeds pick the best for them that is left of when to play (and later on whom).
If we have 6 teams (one more than now) we will have 15 guaranteed playoff games per team. Not just 1 WC or 1 3 game short series or 4 games. To make the World Series normally takes 7 – 15 games. Getting 1 more team in the playoffs, and every team playing 15 playoff games, which shouldn’t take too much longer than the normal first 2.5 rounds, should be beneficial. After a completely balanced regular season, and mostly balanced (slight home-field advantage and Time Of Day advantages) Round Robin for best 40% of the season Teams, we all should be fairly confident that the Top 1 team per league made it to the World Series. Which means the WS can go on as a best of 7. It would be nice if they would make a mostly fully balanced schedule, going to 15 team Leagues, and allowing for some Inter League and Rivalry Games across a 162 full season, and then adopting the 6 Team, 15 Game Round Robin Playoff going forward. But I think there is time, in the 1-2 weeks of 2nd Spring Training to
reschedule the 2020 season, cutting out the clutter of a full season, and even prior to then,or at least as the potential teams are starting to distance themselves, figure out various ways how to get a 15 game Round Robin set up to put in some days off, esp so it’s not 4 games every day, and esp if it ends up East vs West Coast.
Expanding the playoff field only makes the regular season even less meaningful than it already is.
Nuts to that.
Who cares! First Mookie is traded, then TB decides he likes Florida better than New England for the fall and winter and now Chris Sale is forced to have TJ surgery. What is a poor Red Sox, (Boston sports), fan supposed to do. Maybe I will play back those 4 World Series titles, or possibly those 6 Super Bowl wins or should I watch the 2011 Stanley Cup or the 2008 NBA title. Just so many choices it is hard to choose while I try to think of another city that has won titles in all of the major sports this century.