Craig Edwards FanGraphs Chat–7/25/2019

Craig Edwards: Going to let the queue fill up a bit, but in the meantime, I predicted the trade deadline here. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/predicting-the-2019-trade-deadline/

Craig Edwards: I also talked about the ridiculousness of the eighth inning of the Red Sox-Rays game and tried to have a little fun with it. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/instagraphs/the-curious-case-of-the-rays-e…

Kw: Who do you think is the highest profile player to be moved this deadline?

Craig Edwards: I’m still going to say Madison Bumgarner, but if it isn’t him, it is Stroman or Minor. I’m just not sure any of the bigger names get moved right now.

John: Does Houston get a long-term SP and if so, who?

Craig Edwards: I doubt it, at least at the deadline. If they offer Tucker, they could certainly get one of the better arms available now or in the offseason, but I think a pending FA starter is more likely for them right now.

Guest: Stroman and Gilles have been outstanding. What would they fetch on the trade market assuming Braves, Twins, Nationals and Yankees are interested?

Craig Edwards: I think the Blue Jays should get a very good return for Stroman and GIles. I don’t think they’ll net a top-20 prospect but a package that starts with a top-50 guy makes sense with a bunch of non-top-100 guys as well. Giles alone probably gets a back half top-100 guy so it might make sense to trade them separately.

mamsk: Do you think a Braves package for Mike Minor is more likely to center around Ian Anderson or Drew Waters?

Craig Edwards: I doubt they deal Waters so if they make a deal for Minor/Stroman, I would think Anderson leads the deal.

Woah Nellie: Did you know that ZiPS projects Trout to be only the second-best hitter in baseball next year (by wOBA)?

Craig Edwards: I think that once they are updated in the offseason, Trout ends up back on top, though Soto is an interesting player when you are projecting out more than one season.

jim: Snell is getting surgery. The Rays have been .500ish for the last 70% of the season so far. Do you think there’s a legit chance of them giving up on playoff hunt (if they continue to stumble) and leave McKay in AAA to try gaining another year of control by leaving him down there to start next season as well? He’s only had 45ish IP above AA in his career so they could “justify” it

Craig Edwards: I think that’s pretty unlikely. The team is still very much in the race and have to trade a bunch of guys due to 40-man roster issues. Hard to see them not adding and going for a playoff spot. And I don’t see them doing that to McKay.

Jenski: Hi Craig, what is the min/max return a Tigers fan could expect in a Matt Boyd deal? Does he even get traded?

Craig Edwards: I don’t think he gets dealt. There are enough concerns that he probably won’t get the return the Tigers want. I think two top-100ish guys with none in the top-30 or so plus some lottery tickets is a reasonable return right now, which is why they probably hold onto him.

jim: Who do you think is the best prospect that’ll get called up this season (from here on out)? Any chance of Adell, Lux, or Robert getting real MLB playing time before this season ends?

Craig Edwards: I think the Dodgers seem like the team to call up one of their top guys (May, Lux) to help them potentially in the playoffs. I don’t see anybody in the top-4 getting called up and Whitley isn’t healthy. THe rest of the top-10 doesn’t make a ton of sense, either. https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2019-in-season-prospect-…

El Guapo: Scott Kingery or JP Crawford, do either one of them have a star turn next year? I feel both of them are post-hype sleepers.

Craig Edwards: I think Kingery, who was dreadful in his debut, but seems to have recovered, is more likely than Crawford. Kingery still has more room to get better with his strikeout rate where Crawford would have to hit for more power to really break out and he’s already hitting for more power than he did in the minors.

troke: Where did Robel Garcia come from and is he for real? Also, will Happ play and where?

Craig Edwards: He spent half a decade playing in Italy. His strikeout rates indicate the 149 wRC+ isn’t close to being real, but since he’s been gone from the US for so long, it’s worth finding out if that is something he can get down in the big leagues. As for Happ, he’s better against righties than lefties which might make it tough to get playing time in that lineup.

Craig Edwards: 2 min break.

Glenn Spankman: Why are the Giants not playing Alex Dickerson regularly with the way he’s been hitting?

Craig Edwards: They are spreading playing time with a bunch of guys they want to take a look at it, and it doesn’t help that Yaz is also a lefty.

Bo: How much longer can the Braves afford to let Riley work through his struggles? Long term I’m sure he’ll adjust and be fine, but is the middle of a pennant chase the time to give him a long leash?

Craig Edwards: Probably a little bit longer. If you send him to Triple-A to fix something, but he just mashes because the competition is weaker, then he’s not prepared for late-August and September when you need him. Having his bat be good presents a higher ceiling than any of the current potential replacements. Letting him struggle for a few more weeks might give him a better chance of being good again when the Braves need him.

LLW: Would you ever, under any circumstances, eat soup at the ballpark

Craig Edwards: Yes.

Nolan: With the Giants, Nationals, and Indians getting into the race, there may be fewer starters (like Bumgarner, Scherzer, and Bauer) on the market.  At the same time, we’ve seen recent injuries to Woodruff, Chacin, Snell, and others, leaving more holes in teams’ rotations.  Does this signal a very strong market for those teams that *are* still looking to sell a pitcher?

Craig Edwards: I think the true sellers are in very good position. Rangers and Blue Jays for sure. The Giants will be if they change course. The problem for the teams looking for a starter is that the other tier of guys like Boyd and Syndergaard are likely asking for about double the guys who are available so it doesn’t change the market all that much.

Bo: There are far more buyers than sellers at this junction. Is it going to end up being a slow deadline?

Craig Edwards: I think so, yes. There is also a big lack on the position player side.

jim: Are you buying into Reynaldo Lopez’s fantastic last 3 starts? He had a strong stretch of 7 starts to end last season and these last 3 starts have more promising signs (see: fastball velocity up, a lot more swinging strikes, etc)

Craig Edwards: I would like to. Starts against the Marlins don’t really count, but the Rays and Oakland are decent and the change happened right after the All-Star break. He can’t be just a fastball-slider guy and expect the good run to continue, but after what happened with Giolito this season, I wouldn’t bet against Lopez.

Mason Jarre: Macro-conceptual wise – considering no team will have anything but longshot odds against the field in the current 3 round PS format, does it make sense to trade top prospects to marginally improve your odds?

Craig Edwards: It certainly can. Making the playoffs provides a boost to ticket sales the following season in addition to the revenue teams receive in the playoffs, particularly a deep run.

CarmenC: What’s going to happen with Castellanos? the only good fits seem like CLE or TB but they aren’t usually wont to buy

Craig Edwards: The Cubs seem like a good possibility as well. He’ll go somewhere.

JustCurious: What is Dominic Smith’s and J.D. Davis’s trade value?

Craig Edwards: I’m not sure it is great right now in terms of getting prospects from a contender. They are interesting players, but not in terms of a playoff push. If they are dealt, the value is probably higher in the offseason.

ryan: you mentioned what type of return you think the Reds could fetch from the Athletics for Puig, but what do you think a realistic return from the Indians would be?

Craig Edwards: Probably one of their 45s. https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2019-in-season-prospect-…

CarmenC: Who would trade for mazara to boost a playoff run?

Craig Edwards: I think he’s in the same boat as Smith and Davis above. They could trade with another team looking to make a move or be soft contenders like the Giants or Diamondbacks, but there isn’t going to a trade deadline premium for a guy like Mazara, who is more a change of scenery players.

Erik: Would an expanded playoff format encourage more teams to actually try to be good and win games? i.e. The Giants. Do they really want to keep their good players for a chance to win a one-game playoff? Only 6 teams can currently qualify for a playoff series after 162 games.

Craig Edwards: I think expanding the playoffs would be a mistake and cheapen the playoffs. There’s something to being good over the course of a 162 game season and providing for more playoff teams sin’t going to provide a meaningful benefit over letting five teams in right now. I would be in favor of two divisions with three wild cards, but five teams is plenty.

C@$hman: Better move for Yankees – trade for Will Smith, Felipe Vazquez or some other lock down reliever and just hope betances and severino get healthy before playoffs… or trade Frazier and more for stroman and Giles?

Craig Edwards: I think the Yankees best move is to get a starter, whatever that might cost.

CarmenC: Do you think the Yankees part with deivi Garcia for an arm?

Craig Edwards: I think they might if a trading team is valuing him like a top-30ish overall prospect, but it is going to be hard to find a match between how the Yankees might value him and the team that trades for him. His potential would make it hard for the Yankees to give up. They can always go out and acquire depth, but stars are harder to come by, even if free agency.

The Guy: I’d expect the Pirates will full-on sell after a post-ASB collapse.  GM Neil Huntington has expressed desire to compete in the next few years; can any of their expiring-contract players (Dickerson, Liriano, Cabrerra, Lyles, etc) bring back anything that helps in the near future?  Buy-low candidates, perhaps?

Craig Edwards: All those guys are going to bring back depth system pieces. It’s not terrible, but the future stars of the club will need to come from within.

Red Sox and Rays: Do they get close in the division race or do they need to concern themselves with the WC first and foremost? The Yankees seem to pause and then just continue to beat good teams.

Craig Edwards: They are too far back to think there is a reasonable shot at the division unless the Sox sweep this weekend.

ManBearPuig: How much better would I be if I could unleash the guns everyday, and play sleeveless? +5FV bump atleast right?

Craig Edwards: I would be fine if Puig just got to wear a sleeveless jersey every game.

dondybala: What do you think is a realistic return if the White Sox trade Alex

Craig Edwards: Somebody outside of the top-100 but a player with a decent chance of helping the big league team.

jim: I think there’s a strong argument that wRC+ is at best questionable or even useless (more extreme take) for Rockies players. Do you agree?

Craig Edwards: I’m not sure why that would be. Coors is an extreme hitting environment and they need to be penalized for that. Hitting on the road is probably tougher for them than others, but I don’t think it makes enough of a difference that wRC+ would be rendered inaccurate.

Erik: The Edwin Diaz showcase today did not go well

Craig Edwards: Never expect good things from a reliever in the sample size of one game. Hope for it, but don’t expect it.

mph: Without any huge holes, who do you think the Cardinals should target at the deadline?

Craig Edwards: I think the Cardinals have a pretty huge hole in the rotation, and if they don’t address it, its fair to call the trade deadline a failure for the club.

Erik: I meant because of the potential injury

Craig Edwards: oh dear. I hadn’t seen that. Hope he’s okay.

Deets: How much bigger is the Yankees’ fanbase compared to the Rays?

Craig Edwards: A lot. To use a very crude metric, the Yankees have about 6 times as many twitter followers as Tampa Bay. That might understate the effect.

jim: You’re told that Bauer is traded. That’s all you know. What would be your best guess for what team acquired him and with what package?

Craig Edwards: Padres for Urias and Morejon.

Craig Edwards: That’s going to do it for the chat this week. Thanks for all the questions. When we chat again next week, there will be real trades to discuss.