Craig Edwards FanGraphs Chat – 8/6/2020

2:01

Craig Edwards: Let’s get things rolling.

2:02

Craig Edwards: I wrote about Lance Lynn this week because it’s important to think about Lance Lynn from time to time. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/some-renewed-appreciation-for-lance-lynn/

2:02

Chris: Kyle Lewis is still awesome!!

2:03

Craig Edwards: I suppose so, though his wRC+ over the last 7 days is “only” 143. That first week of the season should keep his numbers good all year long even if he settles in closer to his projections, which I still suspect he will.

2:03

Steve: Given Puk’s recent injuries, do you still see his long-term role in the rotation?

2:06

Craig Edwards: Given his talent, I think you have to keep putting him in the rotation until he shows he can’t. It’s one thing to have arm problems and injuries that could come with you whether you are in the pen or the rotation, it’s another thing to not have enough pitches or to have velocity dip a bunch after 40-50 pitches. If on pitch 51, he still looks like he does on pitch 1, then you let him start because having him go full bore in the bullpen isn’t necessarily going to keep him from getting hurt.

2:06

Russ: Kike Hernandez had a great opening day, but hasn’t done much since. When do you think the Dodgers will call up Lux to play 2B to get a better bat in the lineup?

2:08

Craig Edwards: Maybe they are trying to wait on Lux a bit so he can win Rookie of the Year in two consecutive seasons. I think he’ll be up soon. If the Dodgers are really going to mess with his service time, they have to wait a bit longer since he was on the club last year.

2:08

Estevao: Chances of Donaldson as a Hall of Famer if he remains effective at his level through a few more years?

2:10

Craig Edwards: It’s pretty unlikely. Even if he were to put up 12 wins over the next three years and then a couple of two win seasons, taking up to 38 years old, he’s still only at 55-57 wins, which is more on the borderline/not making side. He still needs 180 homers just to get to 400. The MVP will help him, but he probably got too late of a start to make it, even if he finishes his career well.

2:11

Trent Hauser: Today’s my birthday, it’s going like so good you don’t even know

2:11

Trent Hauser: How ’bout those Cubs?

2:15

Craig Edwards: The Cubs look good so far and they haven’t actually lost games due to Kimbrel’s struggles. Playing the Royals and Pirates of late certainly should help a team look good, and there are still some holes in the lineup, but having those wins banked right now might be the difference in winning the division at the end of the season, which is /checks calendar/ less only like seven weeks away.

2:15

Overbearing Padre: Padres look frustrated after last night’s loss. How can they turn things around and secure a playoff spot?

2:16

Craig Edwards: It happens. The Dodgers are a really good team. They are fortunate that the Diamondbacks got off to a rough start. The Rockies should be easier to hold off for second place. The Padres have a good team, and they are in good position. Right now, we have them at 75% to make the playoffs. https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds

2:17

Estevao: I know Dipoto gets the fame for all of his trades but I can understand his logic, AJ Preller is the one that intrigues me, I can never decide if he is a genius or just crazy

2:17

Craig Edwards: why not both?

2:18

RAH: The Longenhagen liked Codi Heuer in his prospect reports. He has a big fastball and 3 pitches. He’s faced the minimum in 3 of 4 outings so far. He has to be climbing the ladder of bullpen roles, right?

2:19

Craig Edwards: His fastball really looked good when I watched him pitch in last night’s game. I have to imagine he will get bigger opportunities soon.

2:19

Chris: The Mariners are rolling with 12 hitters today. That seems unusual? Should I be expecting a trader Jerry trade today or what’s the logic behind waiting till the road trip/weekend to make a move of adding a hitter?

2:22

Craig Edwards: Could have more to do with the makeup of the pitching staff and extra work on Monday and Tuesday. It’s not like teams haven’t been getting by with 12 position players the last few years on 25-man rosters.

2:22

Ryan: Thoughts on Tatis Jr.?His 100th game will becoming up this weekend and the numbers he has put up to this point are absolutely insane for a 21 year old.

2:24

Craig Edwards: He’s a future/current star. Injury last season was unfortunate, but doesn’t seem to be slowing him down now.  As long as he can be a little better at shortstop, he could contend for MVPs.

2:25

Jack: What is the outlook on Corbin Burnes for the rest of this season? I love the stuff and what he’s been doing to improve. But i’m just concerned the Brewers won’t give him a long enough leash and let him start consistently

2:26

Craig Edwards: Hard to know this season, but the Brewers are keeping his innings up after the Brewers had the layoff due to the Cardinals postponements. That’s a pretty good sign that they want to keep him with a pretty high pitch count and potentially get him back in the rotation.

2:26

EFF51: Your thoughts about the Marlins?

2:26

Craig Edwards: It’s going to be a really weird season, but they just don’t have the talent to keep pace, even in the 60-game sprint.

2:28

Ryan: Cubs SP dominance, how bout it? And diving deep into that rotation, how likely is Alec Mills to keep up his stellar performance as seen over the last 50+ IP dating back to last year?

2:28

Craig Edwards: Cubs starters have been very good. Ben Clemens just wrote about Darvish https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/you-cant-fit-yu-darvish-into-a-pitch-t…

2:29

Craig Edwards: Dan Szymborkis just wrote about Chatwood. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/tyler-chatwood-and-strikeouts-have-a-meet-…

2:30

Craig Edwards: As for Mills. I’m not sure what he’s done is going to last. He put up good strikeout numbers last season, but that hasn’t carried over, yet. I think if he’s average, that is a pretty good outcome.

2:30

Estevao: What happened on the Joc and Stripping trade to Anaheim

2:31

Craig Edwards: The Angels pulled out of it.

2:32

Estevao: I know that they are the Yankees and beyond comparison but don’t you think Cash man deserves some praise for basically keeping this team a contender through such a long period. There were a couple of disappointing years earlier in the decade but even then they were above .500 if I’m not mistaken

2:37

Craig Edwards: Evaluating GMs is a difficult task, and evaluating a GM with  a massive payroll is even more difficult. For Cashman, do you blame him for the bad signings, or do you get to push that off to ownership. The finances provide a pretty big safety net. When it looked like the Yankees might not be good in 2014, the team went out and spent like half a billion for one playoff appearance over the next three seasons. The bar is probably high for Cashman, but it should be. There isn’t much of an excuse to be below .500 when you are the Yankees, particularly if you are the person who has been in charge for a decade. None of that is to say he hasn’t done a good job building the current team, but you can’t just look at record without looking at resources.

2:37

BarryBondsJuicedForOurSins: Buxton got thrown out the other day – after his 30 straight stolen bases he seems to be regressing as a base stealer.  Worrisome or just a bad stretch?

2:39

Craig Edwards: Probably just a bad stretch related to coming back from injury. Sprint speed says he’s down a touch, so I think he is down a step or two, but hopefully not something that lasts.

2:39

jtrichey: I feel like the ball is not travelling quite as well this year. Any data on this yet?

2:40

Craig Edwards: I think it might be, but I think what might really be happening is just that we have some variation, which is what we saw in the playoffs last year when the balls were a little all over the place.

2:41

PB&Js: Is Dylan Moore the future of Seattle? If not, does he at least have a full-time future in Seattle?

2:41

Craig Edwards: he’s a utility guy who might play enough to be considered full time, but probably isn’t an above-average player. It’s fun that he can play everywhere, though.

2:43

Your Name: Andres Gimenez has been fantastic defensively; and, though he doesn’t look to have much power, takes better ABs than Amed Rosario. Am I overreacting to a small sample size in wanting to see him take over at SS? What is the best path forward for the Mets if Gimenez can keep it up? Also, based on a sample size of last night, JD Davis is competent at 3rd.

2:45

Craig Edwards: I’m not sure. Rosario was pretty good last year, and I’d like to see Gimenez hit a little bit more before I would displace a competent player. Rosario is still only 24 years old. There should be room for both if they both hit.

2:46

Estevao: What do you expect from Ketel Marte moving forward

2:47

Craig Edwards: He’s off to a solid start this season even if the rest of the Diamondbacks aren’t. I don’t know that he’ll continue to put up the near-MVP numbers of last season, but I do think he should be one of the top 10-20 position players in baseball over the next few years.

2:47

James: Do you think G7 2017 really effed w/ Darvish’s head for a while? Him tinkering his delivery and losing command for 2 years until 2nd half last seems to be an over-adjustment gone wrong

I really really hope he got rid of his demons especially after the light of the Astros cheating and then claiming they found him tipping his pitches

2:48

Craig Edwards: I think it was probably more health than anything. He missed nearly all of 2018 and then really came on strong the second half of last season. When he’s healthy, he’s been very good. And he looks healthy now.

2:49

Appa Yip Yip: Is Jordan Romano legit? He’s looked reeeaaaal good out of the bullpen.

2:51

Craig Edwards: Tough to say. His strikeouts shot up when he went to the pen, but he’s walking a lot of guys. You worry that hitters learn to lay off, the walks just get to be too much. I’m not yet sold.

2:52

Yaz: What are some things we can watch for during broadcasts to better evaluate player performance? Things you can’t get from a stats page.

2:54

Craig Edwards: In a boradcast, you are mainly just getting the hitter-pitcher matchup so it can be hard to look at fielding. I think if you are looking at one team or player for a while, looking at life on the pitches as well as command/hitting spots/catcher’s glove. For hitters, which pitches are they taking. Are they right down the middle, just outside of the strike zone, etc.

2:55

Your Name: What happened to Benintendi?  He looked like the next MLB Star 2 years ago and now…well he doesn’t look like an everyday player.  Will he bounce back?

2:57

Craig Edwards: He’s just sort of not swinging right now, which is weird. and then when he does swing, he misses a decent amount. It’s hard to know what his plan at the plate is right now, but maybe being more aggressive would help him.

2:57

Trent Hauser: Where do the Indians have to get in the next 2-3 weeks to move Lindor?

2:58

Craig Edwards: I don’t see how that’s possible because they aren’t going to fall out of the race and a team isn’t going to want to give up a lot for one year and one month of Lindor while Cleveland isn’t going to take on a bunch of players who haven’t even been playing.

2:58

BarryBondsJuicedForOurSins: Odds we see Wander this year, better than 50%?

2:58

Craig Edwards: I’d put it at slightly under 50%.

2:59

BarryBondsJuicedForOurSins: no, lie to me! we want wander! we want wander!

2:59

Craig Edwards: don’t we all.

2:59

brad penny for your thoughts: how bad is the decision to not bring up D Carlson ?

3:02

Craig Edwards: Unfortunately, there’s more reason now not to bring him up. With so many Cardinals currently out, the team is dipping off their 40-man roster to field a team, but when the currently injured COVID-19 players come back, they will need that room on the 40-man. They might end up putting guys like Ramirez and Schrock through waivers, and lose them. Adding Carlson would mean another 40-man spot gone. I think he should have started the year with the team, but if they weren’t going to put him on then, it makes even less sense now from a roster protection standpoint.

3:03

Your Name: Who is the best guy out of R. Dobnak, A. Civale and Z. Pleasac?  And why is it A Civale?

3:04

Craig Edwards: I think that is probably right. I’m still a little worried about Plesac’s potential home run issues. While I like Dobnak’s GB rate, he just doesn’t miss enough bats for me.

3:05

BarryBondsJuicedForOurSins: Shane Bieber is the best pitcher in baseball.  I have nothing to add, dude is a stud.

3:05

Craig Edwards: I think Jacob deGrom and Gerrit Cole might take issue with that, but noted.

3:05

Craig Edwards: With that, I’m going to shut things down for the week. Thanks for all the questions.

We hoped you liked reading Craig Edwards FanGraphs Chat – 8/6/2020 by Craig Edwards!

Please support FanGraphs by becoming a member. We publish thousands of articles a year, host multiple podcasts, and have an ever growing database of baseball stats.

FanGraphs does not have a paywall. With your membership, we can continue to offer the content you've come to rely on and add to our unique baseball coverage.

Support FanGraphs




Craig Edwards can be found on twitter @craigjedwards.

newest oldest most voted
holycurlin
Member
Member
holycurlin

Hi! The wrong listed pitchers for the Yankees and Fish tonight for your probabilistic matchups. Can you guys update it? Thanks!