12:01 |
Dan Szymborski: CONGRATULATIONS, ITS A CHAT!
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12:01 |
Cat Latos: How do my cat friends do?
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12:02 |
Dan Szymborski: Mercutio is on my office couch looking stupid, Justinian left to go upstairs, Constantine is asleep in the living room overlooking the kitchen as he stakes out dinner, and Cassiopeia is in the spoon of the cat tree sleeping last I checked.
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12:03 |
Champdo: What do you think of the players the Tigers got back in the Soto deal?
|
12:04 |
Dan Szymborski: Meh.
|
12:04 |
Dan Szymborski: I think there’s a lot to not like about Soto’s command, but I rather have a sorta prospect than what are essentially established role players
|
12:05 |
Dan Szymborski: I just don’t see the upside there from Detroit
|
12:05 |
Sox: The Red Sox let Bogey walk. They just lost Story for much of the season. Their rotation is headlined by a bunch of arms who have spent much of the past 3 seasons on the IL and they are a worse team than they were last year when they won 78 games. Is it completely unrealistic to think they struggle to win 70 games in 2023?
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12:05 |
Dan Szymborski: From the projections, the team isn’t *that* bad.
|
12:06 |
Dan Szymborski: But they’re probably in 77-83 territory or so given the srength of the division
|
12:06 |
Dan Szymborski: Now, it’s not completely unrealistic to win fewer than 70 if you’re a 77 win team
|
12:07 |
Bravesfan: If the Braves decide to hold pat at LF and roll with Ozuna & Rosario, what LFs can you see being available at the trade deadline?
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12:07 |
Dan Szymborski: Ian Happ, depending on what the Cubs do
|
12:08 |
Dan Szymborski: Probably Ozuna, Corey Dickerson, someone like Wisdom. Ramon Laureano isn’t really though of as a LF but he’s an available outfielder likely at the deadline. Kinda depends on who falls off.
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12:08 |
Dan Szymborski: Bryan Reynolds too, but he may be traded before the season
|
12:09 |
The Notorious Dan Mcgrew: Volpe had a 3.1 war projection in the yankee article but his individual page shows a 1.8 war projection when I dug into it. What’s causing the difference?
|
12:09 |
Dan Szymborski: ZiPS is not yet on the player pages at all
|
12:10 |
Dan Szymborski: And the difference between ZiPS and Steamer is the playing time used
|
12:10 |
Dan Szymborski: ZiPS has him at 3.1 and 592 Steamer at 1.8 in 289
|
12:11 |
Dan Szymborski: But ZiPS isn’t a playing time predictor in the context of team decision making
|
12:11 |
Dan Szymborski: While he ought to get most of those ZiPS PA, a lot will be in the minors
|
12:11 |
Kris: What side do you take on a Bobby Witt for Oneil Cruz challenge trade?
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12:12 |
Dan Szymborski: Depends on my team’s needs, really
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12:12 |
Dan Szymborski: I think a contender ought to prefer Witt, a rebuilding team Cruz
|
12:12 |
Chelsea: Can you let the Fangraphs overlords know that THE BAT and THE BAT X need to be added to the Auction Calculator?
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12:12 |
Dan Szymborski: Done
|
12:12 |
Chelsea: How much baseball do you watch on a typical day during the season?
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12:12 |
Dan Szymborski: As much as is on. If there’s a game on, one of my screens has it
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12:13 |
Mister E: Hi Dan! I saw Ben’s title of his latest post and that reminded me of your friend, Voros McCracken.I had forgotten (shame on me) that he pioneered DIPS and also never got an opportunity in baseball research after his stint with the Red Sox. How’s he doing these days?
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12:13 |
Dan Szymborski: He’s doing well. He *has* done some work for teams, but the exact details are not public.
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12:13 |
Dan Szymborski: He kinda drifted away and did some consulting in association football; he was a bit disillusioned after his time with the Red Sox
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12:14 |
Dan Szymborski: They basically gave everyone affiliated with the organization a ring except Voros who got a watch
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12:14 |
Dan Szymborski: Passan did a piece on Voros, back when he was still at yahoo
|
12:14 |
Wander: Where does Wander settle in over the next 3-5 seasons in the SS pecking order and what does his 80-90% slash line look like?
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12:14 |
Dan Szymborski: This feels like cheating to get the projection early!
|
12:14 |
Brian Reynold’s Trade Partner: If you were a GM, how much should you discount the future value of prospects in analyzing a trade? How much of that is due to the uncertainty of their future performance?
|
12:14 |
Dan Szymborski: I don’t think there’s a set-in-stone determination you can use.
|
12:15 |
Dan Szymborski: It depends on where your team is and how pressing the needs are
|
12:15 |
Jeans: Are there ways you think forecasting models can adjust for family success or outcomes in baseball ? Ex. Vlad guerrero, bobby witt, gurriel(s), Naylor(s), Maton(s)
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12:15 |
Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure there’s really value there from a projection standpoint
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12:15 |
Dan Szymborski: There’s a real survivorship bias
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12:15 |
Dan Szymborski: Like, name all the siblings of players who ARENT baseball players
|
12:16 |
Dan Szymborski: And by the time a projection system gets ahold of a sibling, they have a record to project off of
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12:16 |
Romorr: 2 years of Lopez, 4 years for Jesus and Rogers, and 6! for Cabrera. I know it depends on cost and all of that, but your preference for the Orioles? Cabrera is mine, but at 6 years of control, figuring out a trade proposal is annoying.
|
12:16 |
Dan Szymborski: Honestly, it depends on the return. I like Lopez though
|
12:17 |
Dan Szymborski: And I don’t want to trade off of too much prospect depth when the O’s have so much payroll flexibility
|
12:17 |
Ben: Saw a post on Reddit pointing out that Giancarlo Stanton has put up the same WAR in his first 5 years as a Yankee that Heyward put up in his first 5 years as a Cub, with a lot of commenters saying that it shows how flawed WAR is. I find it interesting because it’s kind of the two extremes of position player. Would you agree or disagree that they both put up similar production in those timeframes, or is WAR missing something?
|
12:18 |
Dan Szymborski: There are specific examples were WAR can miss something, but I don’t see it here
|
12:19 |
Dan Szymborski: He’s a DH who isn’t a star slugger who has missed nearly 40% of Yankees games in five years
|
12:20 |
jazzpaw: Happy New Year to you, Dan! Your content is always greatly appreciated here and anywhere. Do you fall into the camp that the rule changes involving the shift and base size are being overblown re: performance projections?
|
12:20 |
Dan Szymborski: I don’t think it’s necessarily overblown
|
12:20 |
Dan Szymborski: It’s just extremely speculative
|
12:20 |
SC06: Why do you include both ERA+ and ERA- in your ZiPS Projections? Aren’t they more or less the same thing?
|
12:21 |
Dan Szymborski: People demanded both lol
|
12:21 |
Hank: I’m excited about Spencer Strider this year. That is all.
|
12:21 |
A buccos fan: Why do fans always want to trade for players without giving anything up valuable? I saw a rangers fan wanted to trade for reynolds without giving up jung, leiter, white, foscue, rocker, or porter
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12:21 |
Dan Szymborski: Yeah, not going to happen
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12:21 |
InAAWeTrust: Does the Braves decision not to significantly upgrade left field make sense to you from a positional projection standpoint?
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12:21 |
Dan Szymborski: It would certainly not have been my choice
|
12:22 |
Jim Leyland Palmer: Would you rather: have a cigarette with Jim Leyland, have a catch with Jim Palmer, or have Leland Palmer as your father?
|
12:22 |
Dan Szymborski: Jim of course
|
12:22 |
TomBruno23: How about Matt Carpenter’s Top 3 comps? I see you linked me to his Zips in the SD signing roundup.
|
12:23 |
Dan Szymborski: Player Year Bill Nicholson 1948-1951 Travis Hafner 2010-2013 Curtis Granderson 2015-2018 Matt Stairs 2000-2003 J.D. Drew 2008-2011 Jim Edmonds 2004-2007 Duke Snider 1959-1962 Curtis Granderson 2014-2017 Bill Nicholson 1947-1950 Eddie Mathews 1965-1968 Jim Dwyer 1984-1987 Mel Ott 1941-1944 Jim Hickman 1969-1972 Darren Daulton 1993-1996 Jim Hickman 1970-1973 Duke Snider 1960-1963 Frank Thomas 2002-2005 Ken Phelps 1987-1990 Sal Taormina 1956-1959 Mike Stanley 1997-2000 Ken Griffey 2001-2004 Woodie Held 1963-1966 Eddie Mathews 1964-1967 Cliff Johnson 1982-1985 Ken Phelps 1986-1989 Willie McCovey 1971-1974 Mel Ott 1943-1946 Rick Monday 1980-1983 Curtis Granderson 2013-2016 Jay Johnstone 1980-1983 Luke Scott 2010-2013 Cliff Johnson 1980-1983 Jay Buhner 1998-2001 Oscar Gamble 1982-1985 Jim Thome 2003-2006 Eric Thames 2017-2020 Willie McCovey 1972-1975 Jim Dwyer 1983-1986 Willie McCovey 1970-1973 Jeff Heath 1947-1950 Frank Thomas 20
|
12:24 |
Dan Szymborski: Josh Willingham 2011-2014 Matthew Joyce 2017-2020 Russell Branyan 2009-2012 Don Mincher 1969-1972 Mike Stanley 1995-1998 Tim Salmon 2001-2004 Darryl Strawberry 1996-1999 Tim Salmon 2003-2006 David Justice 1998-2001 Darryl Strawberry 1995-1998 Matt Stairs 1999-2002 Willie McCovey 1973-1976 Matt Stairs 2002-2005 John Lowenstein 1981-1984 Mike Aldrete 1993-1996 Bill Nicholson 1946-1949 Jim Hickman 1971-1974 Matt Stairs 2001-2004 Bill White 1966-1969 Brian Daubach 2003-2006 J.D. Drew 2007-2010 Matt Stairs 2003-2006 Pat Burrell 2008-2011 Mike Stanley 1996-1999 Darrell Evans 1981-1984 Dolph Camilli 1940-1943 Bob Allison 1967-1970 Jason Giambi 2004-2007 Dom Dallessandro 1948-1951 Matthew Joyce 2016-2019 Jim Thome 2004-2007 Jim Dwyer 1985-1988 Jim Wynn 1974-1977 Jason Giambi 2006-2009 Duke Snider 1961-1964 Max West 1950-1953 Charlie Maxwell 1960-1963 Babe Barna 1949-1952 John Vander Wal 2000-2003 Dale Long 1957-1960 George Grantham 19
|
12:24 |
Lowther of the Hill People: Any moves for the O’s you would recommend at this point in the offseason?
|
12:25 |
Dan Szymborski: Build a time machine and sign Rodon!
|
12:25 |
Dan Szymborski: At this point, not much is exciting unless they pull off a trade
|
12:25 |
Ken: Does that 4.5 WAR projection for Harrison Bader seem bullish? I have done zero research
|
12:25 |
Dan Szymborski: ZiPS projects 3.2
|
12:26 |
Dan Szymborski: I’m certainly not banking on a 29-year-old coming off injury to set a career high in PA by more than a hundred
|
12:26 |
Dan Szymborski: but for the graphic, I go with whatever is on the DC
|
12:26 |
GBS42: Dave, did you celebrate the new year with some Skyline “chili?”
|
12:26 |
Dan Szymborski: There are so many things wrong about this question.
|
12:26 |
Deck: I’m curious, on zips projections, or top prospects, or any other team-by-team feature that’s released over time, the Cardinals always seem to be one of the last teams released. Why is that? I’m not complaining. I assume it’s either a coincidence or there’s a rational reason. I just find it odd. It isn’t only Fangraphs, but ESPN or any other baseball site. How do you determine your release schedule, or is it determined for you?
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12:26 |
Dan Szymborski: I roll them out by random selection
|
12:27 |
Dan Szymborski: They were 13th last year
|
12:27 |
Dan Szymborski: 26 in 2021
|
12:30 |
Dan Szymborski: then going back 24th, 18th, 8th, 21st
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12:30 |
Dan Szymborski: so been a bit unlucky
|
12:30 |
George: I failed my physical for the first two chats I tried to join today
|
12:30 |
Slapshot: That whole Carlos Correa saga was weird, wasn’t it?
|
12:30 |
Dan Szymborski: It was
|
12:30 |
Dan Szymborski:
BREAKING: Carlos Correa physical reveals part of ankle is made of pretzels.
11 Jan 2023
|
12:31 |
Questioner: How does zips treat someone like Dylan Carlson who had middling to below average defensive ratings in RF and then had good ratings in CF? Is zips buying the defensive value? Are you? It wouldn’t be crazy to think he were more comfortable there after having played center almost full time coming up in the minors.
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12:31 |
Dan Szymborski: ZiPS will use the real stats and then place a lower weight on stats implied from the other position
|
12:31 |
Dan Szymborski: Like a 0 CF/0 RF is really unlikely
|
12:32 |
Dan Szymborski: so if ZiPS has only limited data, it will take that something like -5 CF/5 RF
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12:32 |
Dan Szymborski: But the more real stats, the less of an effect that has
|
12:32 |
Dans cat: So no ZiPs today I presume? Who might we see next?
|
12:32 |
Dan Szymborski: A baseball team!
|
12:32 |
Dan Szymborski: I don’t announce until the graphic sneak peek appears on my twitter
|
12:32 |
Greg: When will the ZiPS preseason standing projections be released?
|
12:32 |
Dan Szymborski: The final ones usually on the day before or early in Opening Day
|
12:32 |
Dan Szymborski: They’ll be another run
|
12:32 |
Guest: How do you account for harper’s time out in ZIPs? Is that a manual adjustment?
|
12:32 |
Dan Szymborski: I don’t, though ZiPS is aware of his past injuries
|
12:33 |
Dan Szymborski: Specific time only comes into play when I’m doing team projections
|
12:33 |
PewPewPew: What’s the deal with the Hosmer signing and the Cubs? Doesn’t seem like he’d be a huge upgrade over whoever else they’d have lying around if Mervis doesn’t work out. Thanks.
|
12:33 |
Dan Szymborski: I don’t particularly like it
|
12:33 |
Guest: Forgive me if this is the wrong forum. How do you fee
|
12:34 |
Dan Szymborski: I have set prices for projectdions and common things and hourly for “special” things
|
12:34 |
Phil: I am realizing I don’t understand how contracts work for released players. I know that Eric Hosmer gets paid the minimum by the Cubs and the rest of his contract by the Padres. But let’s say he gets bitten by a radioactive Juan Soto and puts up 8 WAR this year (humor me). Does he still have to keep signing one-year minimum contracts through 2025, or could he negotiate a new giant multi-year deal, and the Padres would be off the hook?
|
12:34 |
Dan Szymborski: His contract is still in effect
|
12:35 |
Dan Szymborski: No 🙂
|
12:35 |
TomBruno23: Anyone can play LF, right?
|
12:35 |
Dan Szymborski: Not Hoskins or Hundley!
|
12:35 |
TomBruno23: Paul DeJong is made to pepper that The Green Monster. They are going to love him in Boston.
|
12:35 |
Mike: Hi Dan, big fan of your work. In an OBP league, who do you think will be the most valuable over the next four seasons: Trout, Machado, Betts or Harper? We have four studs coming off contracts in my home league.
|
12:35 |
Dan Szymborski: Machado
|
12:35 |
Farhandrew Zaidman: Too early to talk WBC? Japan always seems to do well, and this is their best team ever I think. That DR squad though…
|
12:35 |
Dan Szymborski: I’m still not sure who is participating and who isn’t yet!
|
12:35 |
Snilram: Can you explain to me what the Marlins are doing like I’m 5?
|
12:36 |
Dan Szymborski: It’s a variation of my Frank McCourt explainer
|
12:36 |
Dan Szymborski:
|
12:37 |
Paddy: Just want to say thank you for the ZiPS team projections! Really enjoy those write ups
|
12:37 |
Dan Szymborski: Glad you’re enjoyng it!
|
12:37 |
M: The three major projections have Yoshida at a 140, 131, and 129 wRC+. If he’s this good of a hitter, why are people saying that redsox overpaid at 5/90?
|
12:37 |
Dan Szymborski: I think people got a little upset when they saw the Steamer replacement level placeholder
|
12:37 |
Free Thinker: If bat speed data ever becomes public, how much will that affect hitter projections, if at all?
|
12:37 |
Dan Szymborski: I think there’s a good chance it causes some changes
|
12:37 |
Lowther of the Hill People: Padres’ frontline looks formidable, especially once Tatis returns, but seem to lack depth. Would another semi-regular quality bat, another 5th starter type, or another mid-leverage reliever help more?
|
12:37 |
Dan Szymborski: I’d love another starter
|
12:37 |
Lowther of the Hill People: Are you ready for Christmas? [sorry had this in the queue from the last chat]
|
12:37 |
Dan Szymborski: I apparently was not!
|
12:39 |
Dan Szymborski: It did warm up to 4
|
12:39 |
Dan Szymborski: But I decided the best time to find my warm hat, gloves, and snow shovel was when it was -11 degrees and the snow already happened
|
12:41 |
Guest: How do you see Nelson Cruz fitting into the Padres lineup? Do you think his vision issue caused his decline?
|
12:41 |
Dan Szymborski: It’ spossible. He’s also a million years old
|
12:41 |
Guest: Will you repubiyour chile recip
|
12:42 |
Dan Szymborski:
Dan’s chili, btw:
2 pounds of beef cubed paste made from a good handful of pasilla chiles, guajillo chiles, a teaspoon of masa harina, and two of those cans of chipotle in adobo. Salt, pepper, cumin.
Cook for a whole bunch of time at low until it’s chili.
19 Oct 2020
|
12:42 |
Devil Ray Jay Johnson: Better shot at winning the World Series in the next three years: Padres or Mariners?
|
12:42 |
Dan Szymborski: Padres
|
12:42 |
Daron: With the fences moving in at Comerica does that have any impact on ZiPS?
|
12:43 |
Dan Szymborski: It might make ZiPS high, it might not. No impact
|
12:43 |
PewPewPew: All right all right all right… That’s what I love about those minor-league prospects. The older I get, they stay the same age…
|
12:43 |
Phil: If a middling prospect has a great season in LIDOM, how much does that change your estimation?
|
12:43 |
Dan Szymborski: Personally I find it something to consider, but the data is REALLY volatile
|
12:43 |
Daron: When are the ZiPS 3-year projections typically released?
|
12:43 |
Dan Szymborski: When the articles are done
|
12:43 |
SH, Jr.: Might be more of an article request, but … do projection systems have a value for “ aggression vs passivity” for batters (apart from, e.g. P/PA)? If so, is there an ideal score for a given hitter profile — “dude’s got better strike zone judgment than he’s evidencing, he ought to dial the AgressoMeter back to 5,” etc?
|
12:43 |
Dan Szymborski: ZiPS does in characteristics when it baselines players
|
12:44 |
comish4lif: FIP doesn’t account for hits allowed by pitchers. Why is that no accounted for? ELI5
|
12:44 |
Dan Szymborski: Because the idea is to keep that out of the equation because of the volatility of BABIP
|
12:44 |
Dan Szymborski: and focus on pitcher-specific tthings
|
12:44 |
Dan Szymborski: Now, there are adjustments to make for that
|
12:45 |
Dan Szymborski: For instance, ZiPS WAR will believe Tom Glavine’s ERA over FIP more at the end of his career than the start
|
12:45 |
Devil Ray Jay Johnson: How about a Fangraphs Audio series of interviews with analytics pioneers like Voros or Fangraphs alum working for teams (avoiding obviously off topic subjects)?
|
12:45 |
Dan Szymborski: Ben’s actually doing that!
|
12:46 |
Justin: Hi Dan. Do you have a favorite Star Trek episode?
|
12:46 |
Dan Szymborski: TOS? No
|
12:46 |
Dan Szymborski: I’m going to get in trouble because I don’t particularly care for TOS
|
12:47 |
Dan Szymborski: or the first two seasons of TNG
|
12:47 |
Dan Szymborski: I found Roddenberry’s sci-fi-utopia to be devoid of drama and frankly, a bit arrogant in a storyline sense
|
12:48 |
Dan Szymborski: If I just saw TOS and the first two seasons of TNG, I’d be rooting for the Borg to assimilate all those self-important Federation douchenozzles
|
12:48 |
Dan Szymborski: My favorite episode of Star Trek is DS9’s In the Pale Moonlight
|
12:49 |
Dan Szymborski: DS9 S3-S7 is peak ST
|
12:49 |
Devil Ray Jay Johnson: What’s the best heckle of a player you’ve heard in person?
|
12:49 |
Dan Szymborski: I rarely hear good heckles
|
12:50 |
Dan Szymborski: I guess hearing someone heckle Marty Cordova as an Oriole amused me most
|
12:51 |
Dan Szymborski: This guy just randomly yelled at Cordova at the end of the season during a long O’s losing streak
|
12:52 |
Dan Szymborski: “HEY MARTY, I HOPE YOU FIRED YOUR AGENT”
|
12:52 |
Free Thinker: If bat speed data ever becomes publicly available, how will that influence your model? I’ve seen some studies suggesting there is a relatively healthy correlation between bat speed & exit velo
|
12:52 |
Dan Szymborski: I have to work with the data first.
|
12:52 |
PewPewPew: Remind me not to shake hands with you if we ever meet…
|
12:52 |
Dan Szymborski: Wait, I wash my hands when I pee
|
12:52 |
Phil: Are you one of those super-fast photoshoppers? How long does something like the pretzel one take you?
|
12:53 |
Dan Szymborski: I wouldn’t say Super fast
|
12:53 |
Dan Szymborski: The pretzel thing took about 10 minutes
|
12:53 |
Dan Szymborski: but it’s not a hard photoshop
|
12:53 |
Dan Szymborski: I simply cut out some of the bone, added some gray and smudged the lines, and pasted in some prepared pretzels with no backgrounds, changed the colors and transparency to look more x-ray-y
|
12:54 |
Dan Szymborski: I’m still improving, I wouldn’t say I’m an expert.
|
12:54 |
Dan Szymborski: I think this was decent though
|
12:54 |
Dan Szymborski:
|
12:55 |
Taylor: Favorite all time album, movie, and sleeper for 2023 season?
|
12:56 |
Dan Szymborski: Pinkerton, Truman Show, Diamondbacks
|
12:56 |
not john mozeliak: mr digital dandy i also like your zoops
|
12:57 |
Dan Szymborski: I think this was decent too
|
12:57 |
Dan Szymborski:
|
12:57 |
TomBruno23: It is strange, as a 45 year old, to be so interested in 17 year old players that the Cardinals have in the DR.
|
12:57 |
Dan Szymborski: Whew, I’m only 44!
|
12:57 |
Curious…: Who do you and Zips ID as MLB’s biggest handful of power risers in 2023? Enjoy your work and insights.
|
12:57 |
Dan Szymborski: Now there will be an article for that
|
12:58 |
Dan Szymborski: Hopefully works out better than last years
|
12:59 |
Dan Szymborski: Kikuchi.
|
12:59 |
Taylor: Any chance Judge can even improve upon his 2022 season?
|
12:59 |
Dan Szymborski: Some, but really probably not
|
12:59 |
Pat Listachio: Who is the more revolutionary genius: Isaac Newton or Voros McCracken?
|
12:59 |
Dan Szymborski: V-Man is my friend, but it’s totally newton
|
12:59 |
Richie: My recollection is that Bill James way back did do some research which showed Daddy being a professional baseball player was a developmental advantage.
|
12:59 |
Dan Szymborski: I don’t think that really helps *projections* though
|
1:00 |
KCbbq: I see that BAT and BATX projections have been added. Any idea when they get updated as I see Story is still projected for a full season?
|
1:00 |
Lowther of the Hill People: You can only attend baseball games in person at one ballpark for the rest of your life. Which park do you pick?
|
1:00 |
Dan Szymborski: Would have to ask Derek!
|
1:00 |
Dan Szymborski: Camden
|
1:00 |
Appa Yip Yip: Do you get annoyed when teams sign players or make trades immediately after you publish their projections, or have you become very zen about it over the years?
|
1:00 |
Dan Szymborski: I don’t get annoyed by that
|
1:00 |
Dan Szymborski: Because it happens
|
1:00 |
Dan Szymborski: What I DO get annoyed at
|
1:01 |
Dan Szymborski: is when I file a piece and between me filing the piece and Meg editing it in the morning something blows up
|
1:01 |
Appa Yip Yip: Dan would you be so kind as to share the Brandon Belt projection? I understand he is going to run with the Giants but he is a Blue Jay now and they have already been done.
|
1:02 |
Dan Szymborski: Percentile 2B HR BA OBP SLG OPS+ WAR 95% 23 28 .300 .405 .604 171 3.7 90% 21 25 .288 .388 .573 162 3.2 80% 19 23 .271 .370 .535 149 2.7 70% 18 21 .260 .360 .515 139 2.3 60% 17 20 .252 .350 .493 134 2.0 50% 16 19 .243 .343 .471 124 1.6 40% 15 18 .236 .335 .455 118 1.3 30% 14 16 .229 .327 .433 113 1.1 20% 12 15 .219 .318 .413 104 0.6 10% 11 12 .205 .302 .384 91 0.1 5% 9 10 .192 .290 .358 84 -0.3
|
1:02 |
Dan Szymborski: Counting stats based on 415 PA
|
1:02 |
Dan Szymborski: Player Year Boog Powell 1973-1976 Boog Powell 1974-1977 Travis Hafner 2007-2010 Boog Powell 1972-1975 Don Mincher 1969-1972 Travis Hafner 2009-2012 Don Mincher 1968-1971 Dave Roberts 1963-1966 Mike Stanley 1994-1997 Travis Hafner 2006-2009 Norm Cash 1964-1967 Dale Long 1957-1960 Mike Epstein 1971-1974 Eric Thames 2017-2020 Vic Wertz 1955-1958 Pete Ward 1967-1970 Cliff Johnson 1981-1984 Vic Wertz 1956-1959 Jim Thome 2002-2005 Ryan Klesko 2003-2006 Boog Powell 1971-1974 Mike Stanley 1995-1998 Johnny Bench 1978-1981 Frank Thomas 2000-2003 Willie McCovey 1970-1973 John Jaha 1995-1998 Frank Thomas 1999-2002 Travis Hafner 2008-2011 David Ortiz 2007-2010 J.D. Drew 2008-2011 Troy Glaus 2007-2010 David Ortiz 2006-2009 Jim Thome 2001-2004 Roy Sievers 1959-1962 Carlos Delgado 2003-2006 J.D. Drew 2007-2010 David Ortiz 2008-2011 Cliff Floyd 2005-2008 Mike Stanley 1996-1999 Matt Stairs 2000-2003 Mel Ott 1941-1944 Matt Stairs 2001-2004
|
1:02 |
Dan Szymborski: (ZiPS cuts out duplicates when it does the projections)
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1:03 |
Mister E: So I take it beans don’t make it into your take on chili? 😝
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1:03 |
Dan Szymborski: I don’t put styrofoam peanuts on a Reuben either
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1:03 |
SH, Jr.: Heckling: IME Clevelanders regularly inform players of Canadian teams that their BACON is HAM!!!
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1:03 |
Dan Szymborski: I do feel bad about my occasional heckle when I was in my teens/early 20s
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1:04 |
Dan Szymborski: I really rode Jonathan Schuerholz as “Johnny Nepotism” in one game
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1:04 |
Farhandrew Zaidman: Re: Pinkerton. If you play Weezer’s discography in reverse, they’re a pretty crappy cover band that eventually outs out two american classics
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1:06 |
Dan Szymborski: Based on MediaMonkey, this is most listened to album of all types
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1:06 |
Dan Szymborski:
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1:07 |
Dan Szymborski: Non-classical, my most listened to albums is a tie between Beautiful Rat Sunset by Mountain Goats and The Execution of All Things by Rilo Kiley
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1:08 |
Guest: I spent a week near Cooperstown, and had chili at a deli run by a cult. It was the best chili! I’m thinking of joining the cult to get their recipe. I wonder where they sourced their beans?
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1:08 |
Dan Szymborski: Imagination, becuase those are the beans you use in chili!
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1:08 |
Morbo: Never been a fan of Weezer in the early 2000s, as a horny high schooler, I turned down an invite to see them with my gf at the time after she got some last minute free tickets
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1:08 |
Matthew E: Best heckle I ever heard: “Adam Kennedy lacks basic life skills!”
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1:08 |
PewPewPew: We also used to yell high calorie menu items at prince fielder when he would play 1B. And we did it in Milwaukee because so many cubs fans travel. Good times.
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1:09 |
Dan Szymborski: My favorite internet heckle is still Grant Brisbee in the 90s discovering that whenever Tracy Ringolsby talked about Dante Bichette, if you replaced every mention of RBIs with “pancakes,” the writing still worked
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1:09 |
Dan Szymborski: Because Tracy kept writing about how Bichette smelled RBIs, tasted RBIs, craved RBIs.
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1:10 |
Dan Szymborski: And this ended with making food jokes about Dante Bichette a running gag on usenet, something which Bichette’s dad discovered and hated all of us for
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1:10 |
Colb: Hey I’m normally just here to stop doing calculus homework but I actually got to cite you guys for my research presentation on fixing baseball labor relations. Thanks for the information.
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1:11 |
Dan Szymborski: HOdHI – HidHo over HoHo!
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1:11 |
TomBruno23: Dante Bichette married a girl from my high school. Which is a bit random considering I went to a school in suburban St. Louis County.
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1:11 |
Morbo: I know it’s not his given name but, Voros McCracken is a HOF name
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1:11 |
Dan Szymborski: Voros being a nickname actually caused him some major payroll issues when he first started with the Red Sox
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1:12 |
Dan Szymborski: I felt really awful for him at the time because of that; he had just moved and needed the money. But 20 years later, it *is* kinda funny
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1:12 |
Lowther of the Hill People: Do you make an effort to see the O’s play in person?
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1:12 |
Dan Szymborski: Not a SPECIAL effort
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1:12 |
Dan Szymborski: though I do see them since Baltimore is the city I’m in the second most often behind Cincinnati
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1:12 |
Morbo: Farhandrew your sentence continued way past it’s natural conclusion: “If you play Weezer’s discography in reverse, they’re a pretty crappy band” ftfy
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1:12 |
Morbo: As a fellow St Louisian I am legally required to ask, “Which highschool did you go to?”
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1:13 |
Morbo: Everything is funny with enough hindsight
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1:13 |
Dan Szymborski: Yeah, we can make John Wilkes Booth jokes now
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1:14 |
Dan Szymborski: And we can make Civil War jokes now
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1:14 |
TomBruno23: Morbo…Ladue Horton Watkins…although I grew up in what was then known as Poor Ladue (Olivette).
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1:14 |
PewPewPew: Watch out buddy! Don’t get canceled
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1:14 |
Dan Szymborski: We can’t make Civil War jokes yet?
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1:14 |
Jasper: Hey Dan! Steamer doesn’t seem to see a huge difference between Rojas and Amaya, why would the Dodgers choose the older, more expensive player? Does ZiPS agree?
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1:15 |
Dan Szymborski: I think certainty more important to a team in the Dodgers position
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1:15 |
Morbo: And Norm Macdonald can make Hitler jokes. I wonder how ole Norm is doing these days
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1:15 |
Dan Szymborski: 🙁
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1:15 |
TomBruno23: Huh.
Cardinals say Matt Holliday has resigned and Joe McEwing is now bench coach.
12 Jan 2023
@jmjones
Cardinals say Matt Holliday has resigned and Joe McEwing is now bench coach.
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1:16 |
Dan Szymborski: If it were the Rockies, I’d assume that Holliday resigned with the team as an outfielder
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1:16 |
Appa Yip Yip: 2) if you are referring to peameal bacon, it’s not ham it’s basically the best thing ever made.
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1:16 |
Dan Szymborski: And on that note, time for me to shuffle off for another week!
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1:16 |
Dan Szymborski: Thanks for coming y’all!
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1:17 |
Dan Szymborski: I know, Baltimore’s not south enough I really get to say y’all, but I FELT LIKE IT
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1:18 |
Matt VW: My favorite heckle: I was in the Fenway right field bleachers, 97ish. Visiting right fielders come in for a fair bit of razzing. The entirely nondescript Melvin Nieves was manning the position for the visiting Tigers that day when a Tigers pitcher induced a lazy pop fly on the infield. After the ball settled into the shortstop’s glove, a couple of rows in front of us started belting out “MELVIN WOULD HAVE DROPPED IT.” that’s my favorite kind of heckle: weirdly, childishly hurtful without being personal at all.
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1:18 |
Appa Yip Yip: I didn’t hear this heckle, but my brother did, and it was a guy calling Kevin Youkilis “Pukilis”
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1:18 |
Quarantino Martinez: You said the O’s didn’t do enough to address their rotation. When can Kyle Gibson expect an apology?
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1:18 |
Dan Szymborski: When he’s a better pitcher
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Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.
Just getting into it so maybe you touched on this. Do you think the Brewers have enough in their lineup to contend for the NL Central and NL? I love the Contreras and Winker maneuvers but getting on base still seems to be a major obstacle for that lineup. Would adding a A-bat in front of their plethora of B/C-bats make them a series contender?
No and no IMO