Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 11/5/18

tb.25: “The only FanGraphs chat that lets you obnoxiously spam emotes.” AKA the best FanGraphs chat.

Dan Szymborski: Good aftermorninevening!

Euan Dewar: Hey Dan! No question, just hope you’re doing well and enjoyed the Blizzcon festivities. Was fun to look at twitter and realise a baseball analytics person I like was also chopping it up in WoW on the regular 🙂

Dan Szymborski: For the Horde!

Matt: Have you ever thought about the ramifications of your non-inclusive chili ideology on the bean people?

Dan Szymborski: People who use beans can still eat it fine, ti’s just not chili.

Dan Szymborski: If you want to deep fry up tofu rectangles, dip them in buffalo sauce, and serve ’em with blue cheese, that’s all well and good, but that’s not a buffalo wing.

Matt: If the Yanks could get Machado, Happ, Corbin locked in this offseason, would that be enough of what they need? Maybe a stop-gap 2B backup for the 1st with Didi out.

Dan Szymborski: Who could do better in an offseason?

Dan Szymborski: They’re a terrific team right now, though they do have some holes. BUt all teams really do.

Billy Beane: AJ Puk, Barreto, Austin Beck and Canha for Trevor Bauer…who says no?

Dan Szymborski: I th ink the Indians. They’ve given no inclination that they’re going full fire sale.

Dan Szymborski: Only that they’re talking about the veterans.

Dan Szymborski: That make $

Dan Szymborski: And Puk’s value is way down until he’s successfully recovered

Ray: Do you have any thoughts on what’s going on in Houston right now? I know last year we dropped most of our scouting department, now it seems like most of the analytics guys in our front office are out. What gives? Does Luhnow literally think he can run the team by himself based on his data input systems now?

Dan Szymborski: I have not heard anything specific as to reasons.

Dan Szymborski: Though I have to wonder, with so many smart people there, is there enough room to keep some from just being stuck below a ceiling?

Los: Oscar Mayer officially declared hot dogs are sandwiches. Are they on to something or is this akin to a baseball team thinking Eric Hosmer is worth $120mm?

Dan Szymborski: That’s like me declaring myself the president. You can’t just declare something that advantages yourself.

Dan Szymborski: Sorry, was just trying to figure out why the Kettering, OH disaster sirens were going off.

Dan Szymborski: Apparently they test them the first Monday of the month and I’ve never noticed before.

Matt: More likely: Yanks try to throw money at Corbin, or they try to trade Frazier + for something? Is Frazier + enough of an asset to dangle for something useful (Frazier + Gray for Jon Gray, maybe??)?

Dan Szymborski: They might do both.

Edeka: What’s a fair return for Kluber and can Cleveland get it? Considering what Chicago got for Sale and Quintana, it seems like the Indians should be able to get a top top prospect for Kluber, even if he is going to be 33.

Dan Szymborski: Age isn’t really a concern for a pitcher until 37-38 or so.

Dan Szymborski: Batters age, pitchers break.

Dan Szymborski: Now, yes velocity goes down slowly over time, but it’s the attrition that is the big dropper-off

Dan Szymborski: You don’t expect a pitcher to really age worse from 33-35 than 27-29.

Dan Szymborski: Kluber ought to get a similar package to Sale.

Dan Szymborski: Same tier pitcher, same contract situation, I believe (a year left on contract and two team options at good prices)

Xolo: What’s your best guess as to what Preller’s annual craziness will be this winter?

Dan Szymborski: Dunno. Wade Miley?

BaseballBeerBrats: Any updates on Brent Honeywell? How’s his rehab going and what’s his return timeline?

Dan Szymborski: I haven’t heard anything specific in a while. I knew he was doing some light throwing over the summer, which was about on-target for a typical TJ recovery, if I’m coutning months correctly

Dan Szymborski: Generally speaking, no news is good news!

Scott Travis: Where do you think the year’s real #1 free agent, Sig Mejdal, ends up?

Dan Szymborski: Orioles, please.

Dan Szymborski: But probably not.

Dan Szymborski: Thing is, I don’t know Sig at *all*, we’ve never interacted, I don’t think.

Dan Szymborski: I don’t know why he left or what he’s looking for in a new job.

Dan Szymborski: I wouldn’t be surprised if a few of these guys leave the baseball industry; they’ll earn a lot more money.

Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: Gold Gloves are worthless (except the for players that have contract bonuses for winning them), but is Corey Dickerson really the best left fielder in the National League? Or is that all propped up by the outfield assists he picks up?

Dan Szymborski: He did have very good defensive stats this year, and wide agreement between measures.

Dan Szymborski: There’s no super-amazing defensive LF in the NL that jumps out at me.

Matt: Hi dan. I am currently a freshman in college studying to become a sports journalist (preferably baseball). Any advice on classes to take or ways to get ahead in the Field? I already have my own blog. Thanks

Dan Szymborski: Classes, I don’t have the best advice as I didn’t intend to get into journalism when I was college. I took creative writing for those credits!

Dan Szymborski: Didn’t even write for the school paper or anything.

Dan Szymborski: I would recommend trying to be well-rounded.

Dan Szymborski: I wouldn’t personally go all-in on journalism classes.

stever20: What do you make out of the talk of MLB getting rid of trade waivers and having only 1 mid August trade deadline?  Do you think it’ll happen?

Dan Szymborski: It’s a possibility. I don’t think players like the length of the trade season.

Dan Szymborski: And it makes sense to just have one, clean deadline.

Cashman : Hi Dan!  Does Clint Frazier, Chad Green and Johnny Lasagna get kluber?  Carrasco?  Would the Indians trade both if Andujar and Sheffield were included?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think the first gets Kluber.

Dan Szymborski: But the second? Dunno. Thing is, I’m still not sure how far the Indians want to go.

Rox Fan: If Ryan McMahon gets everyday (> 500 PA) playing time at 1B, do you see him as at least league-average?

Dan Szymborski: I think he’ll be averageish. It’s too bad the Rockies wasted most of his season.

Dan Szymborski: Having your best pure hitting prospects up in the majors to pinch hit in like 40 GAMES is utterly moronic.

Dan Szymborski: But no, we have to protect Ian Desmond’s feelings because the Colorado Rockies are his fantasy camp.

Paulie Walnuts: Do you think the A’s resign Jed Lowrie at 2B, or roll with Barreto from day 1? Which do you think is the right call?

Dan Szymborski: I think they’ll try to, but if the money gets silly, I think they bow out quickly.

Dan Szymborski: Their financial model just doens’t include taking a risk on a 35-year-old’s long-term contract

Ozzie Ozzie Albies Free: Beans beans they’re good for your heart, the more you eat the more you fart!

Dan Szymborski: It’s true.

Bork: Pearson throw ball fast

Matt: Your thoughts on removing party affiliation from ballots and randomizing all electronic ballots intrigue me.

Dan Szymborski: Just how I feel. It’s always felt kind of like advertisement.

Dan L: Are the Indians in trouble due to their financial situation?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t know, but I’m seariously wondering.

Gopherballs: Ever find the culprit for the Newkirk impersonator?

Dan Szymborski: Nope. I’m curious who Shaun ticked off that much.

Andy: I watched the NYC Marathon.  Now I feel fatter than ever.  No question.  Just feel fat.

Dan Szymborski: I feel fat too!

Dan Szymborski: <looks down>

Dan Szymborski: Oh.

Matt : Any predictions for the most shocking/surprising transaction we see this offseason? Should be a fun one for all

Dan Szymborski: I can see a team below the big spenders going crazy for a Corbin or something

bcb: Is there (or can there be) an actual Spam ™ emote?

Phan: FG chat question: Do 2 players with identical obp and iso but different batting avg (e.g. 230 and 270 avgs) provide differing offensive value?

Dan Szymborski:

Raul Gillette: Which of the top 7 FA signs first?

Dan Szymborski: Kershaw 🙂

Reg Mowley: If you were the Cubs, what would you do with Addison Russel?

Dan Szymborski: Play him, but make a large donation to relevant charities.

Dan Szymborski: And ask him to do some charitable work. Not required, but urge him to at least do some good.

Xolo: Buffalo wings are made with cauliflower, not tofu. Come on.

Dan Szymborski: Banned.

Ryan: Which franchise has a better long-term outlook: Rays or As?  And does it depend on which one actually gets a new stadium built first?

Dan Szymborski: Probably the A’s

Raul Gillette: Goldschmidt & Greinke traded this offseason?

Dan Szymborski: I think in the end, no

____: On which FA do you disagree with Kiley’s prediction the most?

Dan Szymborski: I suspect Ottavino and Kimbrel are disappointed in their markets

Grover: Could the Dodgers be bigger players on the trade market (absorbing a big salary like Grienke) as opposed to free agency?

Dan Szymborski: I think it’s more likely

Vote: Who gets into the HOF this time around?

Dan Szymborski: Halladay, Rivera, Edgar

Xolo: Which 2017-18 move ages worse, the Padres signing Hosmer or the Yankees trading for Stanton?

Dan Szymborski: Hosmer

____: Make Mets fans feel better about the BVW hire, please?

Dan Szymborski: Some day, the increase in the sun’s magnitude will destroy any historical artifacts of the Mets.

____: I. DECLARE. BANKRUPTCY.

____: BVW or Doug Melvin: who would you rather hire to run your team?

Dan Szymborski: Melvin if it’s an administrative role.

Dan Szymborski: Day-to-day, I think I’d prefer Brodie

Michael Scott: I DECLARE BANKRUPTCY

Matt W: Clearly you don’t know your deep fried wing alternatives. It goes: buffalo cauliflower > buffalo seitan > buffalo anything else. Tofu just doesn’t hold up well enough to be a fake wing.

Dan Szymborski: Happily ignorant.

Vote: How does the MLB awards voting alternate in your BBWAA chapter?

Dan Szymborski: It’s not a formal thing, but most chapters have more members who would like to vote than there are ballot spots.

Matt W: Am I deluding myself to think that the Mets might hire one or more of the suddenly available Houston stats gurus?

Dan Szymborski: It COULD happen. The question is how seriously they use the information.

Dan Szymborski: It’s not like they have NO stat guys

Vote: If you had written the Markakis Top 50 Free Agent blurb, what would you have said?

Dan Szymborski: MATT…DAMON

Lazzaro Da Fietta: Would Verdugo, K. Ruiz and Urias get the Dodgers Realmuto? Too much? What Dodger package would you expect?

Dan Szymborski: Oh, it would.

Dan Szymborski: I think that’s too much to pay!

bcb: As a Cubs fan I was was very excited to remind people of the stealthy Smyly pickup last offseason.  Now he’s a cash chip to retain an aging Hamels.  Should I be disappointed, or was I just getting too clever by half to begin with?

Dan Szymborski: Teams put a lot of forks in the fire and see what pans out.

Outta my way, Gyorkass: Looking at the new Steamer projections, I add up 19.6 WAR for the Brewers offense, and 10.4 for the pitching staff. If my understanding of how this translates into wins is right, you start with a base of 48 wins, and from this you get the Brewers as…a 78 win team? Seems ludicrously low, yeah?

Dan Szymborski: They’re not ZiPS, so I don’t have authority to karate chop you!

Dan Szymborski: You’ll have to take to Jared and gang about that.

George: What is a reasonable projection for Victor Robles next season? Can we see him being worth 3+ WAR? How about Soto? 5+?

Dan Szymborski: I DID post his projection in the nats elegy (his prelim one)

John Jaso Jingle Heimer Schmidt: Giants write Bryce Harper a blank check after missing out on Stanton last year, right?

Dan Szymborski: I think they’re going after harper hard. Ownership wants it.

Vote: Does Joe Mauer play again?

Dan Szymborski: No

Moose_Bolton: I’ve noticed that you play Hearthstone. Have you dabbled in Magic: The Gathering much?

Dan Szymborski: Not really since the 90s.

Dan Szymborski: I play quite a bit of Hearthstone and wrote a lot about it for ESPN when I was there

Dan Szymborski: I even had some card reveals!

John Jaso Jingle Heimer Schmidt: What would be a realistic return for Bumgarner that the Giants would say yes to without thinking?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think there is one

Anton: I was a frequent fangraphs reader for a few years but I’ve been a bit MIA for the past 2 years 🙁

Dan Szymborski: Show me were on this baseball card where you were hurt.

Vote: I’m pretty sure Preller will sign another 1B to a multi-year deal

George: Do you think the Nats should retool if they do not sign Bryce? Or could they compete next season?

Dan Szymborski: I think they could compete. But the margin for error gets a little smaller.

Dan Szymborski: Rendon’s near FA too and Strasburg  has an opt out

Dan Szymborski: But there’s enough talent on the team that they *can* thread the needle

Anton: I was a frequent fangraphs reader for a few years but I’ve been a bit MIA for the past 2 years 🙁  but I want to get back into it! Can you give a few bullet points of an update on the current uses of statcast and with what the status is with the usefulness of pitch framing data? Then I can research those bullet points on my own. Thanks!

Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure there’s anythign blazingly new, they keep adding new things.

Dan Szymborski: Like there’s a cool new pitcher visualization teal.

Dan Szymborski: teal?

Dan Szymborski: tool

Dan Szymborski: Pitch framing still seems to be quite volatile.

Phan: Does AJ Puk pitch in the bigs for Oakland in 2019?

Dan Szymborski: At the end.

The Ghost of Dan’s Grandma: Sweet Danny boy, because have you rebuffed my simple request for a kiss, I deigned to proffer said simple ask to your colleague and outright lout Kiley.  Yet even he ignored by pleas.  Am I destined to walk this cold and unforgiving netherworld kissless and forgotten?

Dan Szymborski: Yes

Dan Szymborski: Don’t bug the others with the SzymChat memes!

sjamb: Why doesn’t Donaldson have more hype behind him? 149 wRC+ with the Indians, which is what you’d expect from a healthy Donaldson.

Dan Szymborski: The problem is we haven[‘t had a healthy Donaldson for awhile!

Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: $70MM opening day payroll for the 2019 Rays sound right? The recent article here really drove home how much money they have to spend even by non-cheap club standards, and now is the time to spend given their second half and need for public support on the stadium. That’s enough to go out and get, say, two Ramos-tier guys.

Dan Szymborski: If they don’t spend in free agency, they could even come up less than that.

Dan Szymborski: They coudl actually have a really solid team for $70 million in 2019

Dan Szymborski: Kiermaier might make more than the rest of the lineup if the season started today!

Outta my way, Gyorkass: Brewers have some obvious needs (2B, starting rotation, C, etc) – how aggressively do they dip into the FA pool? Or, do they prioritize in-house reinforcements (say: Nelson returning, Hiura, etc)

Dan Szymborski: The general feeling is that they tender Schoop

Bork: Sorry, Orioles will sign Cruz for 5 years/120m deal.

Dan Szymborski: heh

Russell: With Cleveland in a minor sale mode and really neading OFs, what is your prediction for the starting 3 in the outfield next season for game 1?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t have a feel yet at this point in the offseason

Dan Szymborski: I was shocked they didn’t QO Brantley

Vote: For chili dogs, just enough chili that you can still eat it like a hot dog?  Or so much chili that you have to eat it like chili?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t like hot dogs to be too messy

Matt: Any insight into this Kikuchi guy? Low K%, and I feel like K% usually drops a lot from NPB -> MLB. Back -end guy? Any serious upside there?

Dan Szymborski: Not really, NPB players have more of a culture of not wanting to strike out

Dan Szymborski: Though that’s slowly changing

Dan Szymborski: Darvish and Ohtani’s were essentially the same.

Dan Szymborski: Mikolas’s dropped, but he’s also not an upper 90s guy

Matt: Dan. Don’t make any sudden movements, but that imposter Matt is back. And he’s apparently trying to infiltrate you’re field of work.

Jamie : Are you here for election discussion?

Dan Szymborski: No.

Dan Szymborski: I probably won’t even be on Twitter Tuesday or Wednesday

Outta my way, Gyorkass: How on Earth did Markakis win a Gold Glove?

Dan Szymborski: At least he’s probably average or somewhere.

Gob: Rockies need more offense, Rangers need pitching. Would Jon Gray for Nomar Mazara work? Both have untapped upside, both have a couple years left until FA.

Dan Szymborski: Colorado would do this and then sign Hunter Pence and make Mazara  a pinch-hitter

Matt: Harper and Machado – Give me your “most likely to sign” and your “would benefit most from but won’t”. The latter must be limited to teams with realistic means.

Dan Szymborski: Let’s see Harper   SF/Rockies

Dan Szymborski: Machado

Dan Szymborski: Phillies/…Brewers?

Dan Szymborski: Or is that not realistic

Dan Szymborski: Arizona?

Dan Szymborski: But then again, they might trade Greinke

Dan Szymborski: but would that make Machado obtainable?

Dan Szymborski: If those aren’t realistic, then the answer I think Phillies/Phillies

Trevor: There were rumblings of Arenado extension talks over the weekend.  Will the Rockies get a deal done?

Dan Szymborski: I think they do

Other Rox Fan: What’s the most on-brand dumb move for Bridich and Co. to make this offseason – splurge on some bad catcher in FA? sign another corner OF? trade arenado for scraps?

Dan Szymborski: Sign a middle infielder veteran and start him in left.

Dan Szymborski: Freddy Galvis?

stever20: Do you think Ryu will accept the Dodgers QO?

Dan Szymborski: Actually, I think he may

kderg: What do you think about Charlie Morton not getting a QO?

Dan Szymborski: Surprised, but not surprised as much as Brantley

Matt: You might want to clarify your advice on being “well rounded”, Dan.

Dan Szymborski: Don’t have journalism the only field that your’e an expert in

Dan Szymborski: Have a math background or an econ background or a science background, etc.

Matt: When did they stop being called “emojis” in favor of “emotes”?

Dan Szymborski: I think emotes are the older name.

Trevor: Swing and a miss, Dan; Kershaw was never a free agent.

Dan Szymborski: I’d call him a de facto one, just not a de jure one.

Dan Szymborski: He controlled his fate entirely.

scott: The disaster sirens should be “Kettering” by The Antlers played really, really loud

Porter: For all of the concern about where Russell ends up this winter, Kang is sitting out there with a fat Steamer projection.

James: Did you see Ohtani’s beer shower?

Dan Szymborski: I did. The ever dependable Sung Min Kim tweeted out a video of it recently

Consider Tiffany: Are there some GMs that have “won” so many trades that other GMs don’t want to trade with them anymore?

Dan Szymborski: No, because nobody has a time machine and a sports almanac.

Consider Tiffany: Emoticons are typographic characters. Emojis are little pictures.

Dan Szymborski: 🙂

Dan Szymborski: But if I type that in and it’s converted to an emoji, which is it philosophically?

Grover: Didn’t Kershaw have to technically opt out in order to sign a new deal?  Or was it just a one year extension?

Dan Szymborski: Yeah, that’s why I feel it has the character of a de facto free agent signing

Dan Szymborski: I love you, Dan.

Dan Szymborski: I love you too, Dan.

CamdenWarehouse: Is there currently a feeding frenzy among agents to grab all of Van Wagenen’s clients?

Dan Szymborski: He was at a firm, not a solo guy.

Billy Beane: Random ordering seems pretty reasonable, but it’s also true that the party affiliation of a candidate provides a low-information voter with information about the candidate. But there are also non-partisan offices which don’t list a candidate. I think it’s reasonable for both types of offices to exist.

Dan Szymborski: But I don’t think that’s good civics either. Randomly lets the low-information voters more or less cancel out due to chance.

Dan Szymborski: And the fact that party affiliation advertises something is what makes me feel like it’s an on-ballot political advertisement.

Dan Szymborski: And philosophically inappropriate by my worldview.

Dan Szymborski: Parties shouldn’t be considered government agents. And as such, I don’t think they have any more business being written on a ballot than an endorsement from the Fraternal Order of Police or League of Women Voters

Dan Szymborski: And you could equally say those provide guideance to a low-information voter.

Dan Szymborski: OK, by popular demand, I’m bringing back the Lightning Round.

Dan Szymborski: The rules on the Lightning Round are simple.

Dan Szymborski: As long as the Lightning Round goes on, I have to answer every question, no matter how inane, or how little I know the answer. The usual exceptions (very personal, work-related, politics) apply, though I may choose to answer if I want.

Dan Szymborski: and GO

Dan Szymborski: Oh, and off-topic!

Badeball: Bogart said “A hot dog at the ballpark is better than roast beef at the Ritz” Does this still hold given the two items are roughly the same price?

Dan Szymborski: No

stever20: Does anyone beat Alabama in college football this year?

Dan Szymborski: No

Andy: Tyler O’Neil can benchpress a car.  true/false?

Dan Szymborski: A very small car

Dan Szymborski: like a power wheels

New Person: what is Bryce Harpers Marketing Value in a pure number per year basis

Dan Szymborski: A few million? His value’s mostly him not the team.

BigGeorge: Billy Hamilton will never be a gold glover. Fair or not?

Dan Szymborski: Not really, but life tends not to be.

jim: Which 1990s SNL cast member had the best raw power on a 20-80 scale?

Dan Szymborski: Farley

Andy: I move in two days.  Do I get one last Philly Cheese steak in Philly?

Dan Szymborski: Two days gives you time for more than one!

tb.25: Are free agents really free? Or are the predestined to sign with something we know as a team?

Dan Szymborski: I think they’re free, I’m not a Calvinist

Alan: Why are you in Kettering?  Do you live here?

Dan Szymborski: Live not far from Kettering, but I can hear their sirens

Consider Tiffany: Do you think that deGrom’s teammates refused to score any runs when he pitched because maybe they just didn’t like him very much?

Dan Szymborski: Well, they seem to like Reyes, so maybe it’s better they don’t like deGrom!

Ozzie Ozzie Albies Free: Have you ever watched Earthlings? How do you justify loving your cats but eating other animals who have been tortured all while being the biggest contributor to climate change?

Dan Szymborski: I have not.

Dan Szymborski: Like most people, I’m imperfect.

Dan Szymborski: Ethically, I actually have some qualms about eating meat. But my qualms aren’t such that they outright the pragmatic value of deliciousness.

CamdenWarehouse: I’m not a Calvinist either. I’ve always felt more akin to the stuffed tiger.

Friend: Does fangraphs offer internships to highschool students?

Dan Szymborski: I think it’s usually offered to college students, but I haven’t been here long enough to know all the procedures.

Dan Szymborski: But on a very general basis, I don’t think our rules are written in stone type of things.

Dan Szymborski: And imagine even if we had a policy of only college interns, someone could convince with a good case

Vote: When that Pretenders’ song comes on the radio, do you go, “hey, Ohio”?

Dan Szymborski: What the heck is a radio?

jim: How do you justify loving baseball but not approving of it when I run around town swinging my bat at people?

Dan Szymborski: It’s only OK if people are throwing objects at you first.

Vote: What song did you really like until you paid attention to the lyrics and then went “man, this is dumb”?

Dan Szymborski: Lots of Rilo Kiley?

Vote: Radio is that lousy Cuba Gooding Jr. movie or that electronics device that plays music and commercials when waiting in line for a cheesesteak.

Dan Szymborski: I’ll listen to radio for talk stuff, but for music, I have a terabyte hard drive in my car connected to the system and I’m the DJ

Dan Szymborski: My name is literally DJ Szymborski

Dan Szymborski: (my middle name is John, my dad’s first name)

Dan Szymborski: At some point, I’m going to add my grandfather’s name to my middle name, and be Daniel John Jacob Szymborski

jim: when are we getting a nationally syndicated DJ Szymborski radio show?

Dan Szymborski: Not any time soon!

mike : How do you find new music? Or are you one of those “all new music sucks” guys?

Dan Szymborski: I’ll frequently just go down the new releases.

Dan Szymborski: And I keep a notepad of bands to try anytime I hear someone talking about one

Dan Szymborski: and Spotify does find some bands I know nothing about that I enjoy

Vote: DJ Szymborski is on Sirius/XM between the Bluegrass station and the Sounds of Season music station that just stopped playing Monster Mash 24/7.

Dan Szymborski: On that note, time for me to head off for another week!

Dan Szymborski: Considering you guys wanted the LIghtning Round back, you didn’t ask very preposterous questions! For shame.

Dan Szymborski: Thanks for joining me everyone! See you next week.

Brian CashGod: Dan I would happily follow a DJ Szymborski curated playlist on Spotify

Dan Szymborski: I warn you, my tastes end up veering very indie hipster folk