Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 4/15/19

Dan Szymborski: I WANT MY ELEPHANT

Dan Szymborski: Begin communiqué.

Andy: Is it unfair that some teams can use like an 8 man rotation, and just send some of the players to triple A and not use up roster spots?

Dan Szymborski: Next year, minimum option times are going to be 20 days.

Dan Szymborski: err 15 days

Dan Szymborski: 2020

Jim Leyland Palmer: Dan, are you eating 42 bowls of chili today?

Dan Szymborski: No

Dan Szymborski: Jackie Robinson wouldn’t want me to have my stomach pumped in an emergency room.

B: What’s up with Garrett Hampton? He has gotten off to a rocky start, but the it’s odd to see that he is hardly walking at all.

Dan Szymborski: The lack of walks is concerning, but given how awful he (and the Rockies) have been, I’d be patient

Frankie: Is the Pirates pitching staff for real or is there start just a result of small sample size

Dan Szymborski: Well, if it’s not sample size, I’m pretty sure they’re not the best pitching staff in history

Dan Szymborski: Well, second-best because Rays

Dan Szymborski: and some teams in the 1880s

Gub Gub: How the heck are we having a game at 11am, then nothing until 7pm?

Dan Szymborski: Baseball’s scheduling occasionally drives me nuts

B: At this point, does Yandy diaz’s Power projection change?

Dan Szymborski: Let’s not go *crazy* yet

Cincinnati Chili Cooperative: Skyline Chili > Ozzie Albies contract. That’s is the new slogan. Filling but both leave a bad aftertaste. We got that going for us.

.: What is Keston hiura’s eta?

Dan Szymborski: It’s not quite as urgent as it was earlier in the winter, but I don’t think the Brewers will mind if he mashes enough to give them an interesting decision later this year

Gub Gub: On the police Academy scale of Sweetchuck to Tackleberry, where does your general disposition fall?

Dan Szymborski: Larvell Jones

Dan Szymborski: The true Police Academy is the funny noises you make along the way.

Bo: The enigma that is Julio Teheran continues…

Trent: The Rays and Padres have the best records in their respective leagues.  Would such a World Series match-up be (a) extremely interesting, because of the young talent and relative novelty of those teams being in the playoffs, or (b) extremely boring, because of the lack of star power, large markets, and baseball history?

Dan Szymborski: Interesting to the afficionadi , but probably ratings poison

Eric: What role do you expect to see Julio urias take on once he moves to the bullpen?

Dan Szymborski: A flexible role, I think no matter how he’s used, the Dodgers will try and give him a decent amount of PT

Fangraphs Reader: Does it seem a little hypocritical for fangraphs writers to shout it’s April to anyone trying to draw too many conclusions from sss early season results in chats, while Fangraphs posts articles pumping up the early season results from the likes of JD Davis or Yandy Diaz?

Dan Szymborski: It’s fun to try to separate April! players from April. players.

LFC Mike: Good Monday to you Daniel. Hope you have not overdosed on video baseball this week. Red Sox have had Chavis start at 2nd base at Pawtucket and Christian Vasquez is starting at second base today. Thoughts on Chavis?

Dan Szymborski: It’s always good to push the boundaries of what a player can do

Dan Szymborski: Chavis is off to a terrific start at AAA and if he can fake 2B, he has more valuable to the Red Sox

AF: Odds Jeff McNeil will win the NL batting title?

Dan Szymborski: Fairly low, but non-zero

JM: Would it be smart to trade for the Pads to trade Wil Myers this year?

Dan Szymborski: Well yeah, problem is that for most teams, it’s not smart to trade for Wil Myers

mets fan: what can the mets get in a trade for dom smith? #4 starting pitcher?

Dan Szymborski: Unlikely. 2018 was a tire fire.

Pip: Back in my day I would have gone to school with chickenpox and infected everyone….not stayed at home for two weeks and received video games. Rubella, Cholera, Typhus… now you are talking missing school and getting great toys like a stick and a wooden circle or socks that didn’t have holes in them.

Dan Szymborski: See, if I had one kid, I’d get them vaccinated. But if I had ten kids, well, I have to figure out who my primary, secondary, and tertiary children are.

Dan Szymborski: How else to identify the superior Szymborski stock?

Mario Mendoza: Heyward breakout is here??!?

Dan Szymborski: I won’t go that far

Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: Brandon Lowe: 6 years until FA, 6 year contract, 2 club options, grand total $49MM/8 years including unknown incentives
Ozzie Albies: 5 years until FA, 7 year contract, 2 club options, grand total $45MM/9 years.
Let’s ignore the rumors about Ozzie’s agent. How does the player look at his deal compared to Brandon Lowe’s and think he should sign? Albies somehow got a worse contract!

Dan Szymborski: Kingery too!

CamdenWarehouse: The Orioles have been scheduled for this 11:00 AM game 4 of the last 6 years. Do you think they’ve complained?

Dan Szymborski: If you lose early in the day, you have more time for yourself in the evening

Sam: What are the updated win projections of this current, injury riddled Yankees rosters?

Dan Szymborski: We have a whole page!

Red Foreman: What if there was a Bryce Harper like prospect for the 2019 MLB draft class (by far the #1 prospect) but this player was 100% committed to becoming a free agent as soon as possible. Could they sign a 1 year contract in Japan/Korea/independent league before the draft making them ineligible? What would be the quickest route for a player with this goal? I’m sure the MLB would have a response.

Dan Szymborski: No, it wouldn’t work.

Dan Szymborski: There’s no loophole here.

Trevor: Will Dan answer more questions about chili (*sigh*) or baseball today?

(not that) James: Whatever one thinks about the Acuna and Albies contracts, can we all agree that the world would be an infinitely better place if the two of them starred in a buddy cop tv show set in the 1980s?

mets fan: wont roster restrictions next year lead to more injuries, because the same pitchers will have to pitch more in high stress?

Dan Szymborski: I doubt it.

CamdenWarehouse: Is Manuel Margot going to break out this year?

Dan Szymborski: I keep thinking he will.

Dan Szymborski: I’m more bullish on him than most

Ryan: How many Lannisters are still alive by the end of the show?

Dan Szymborski: None.

PD: Baseball writers are a lot like people, some of them act badly because they have had a hard life or have been mistreated. But like people, some of them are just jerks. Stop that Mr. Szymborski.

Gub Gub: I gotta be honest, I think Jackie Robinson would enjoy the thought of you gorging yourself on chili.

Dan Szymborski: What did I do to him?

Slapshot: If Khris Davis is rightly called Khrush, what do we call Chris Davis these days?

Dan Szymborski: Crispy

Jim Leyland Palmer: Are you drinking the Matt Boyd Kool-Aid?

Dan Szymborski: I am not

Slurve: What does Chris Davis have to hit from here on out to hit .300?

Dan Szymborski: high school

Ryan: Should I be more worried about Hendricks or Bryant going forward the rest of the season?

Dan Szymborski: Bryant I think, simply because there’s always the risk that his shoulder isn’t really where it shoudl be yet

LFC Mike: Dan..to be a great uncle..watch Uncle Buck with John Candy. All the info you need.

Zonk: Friars look pretty for real.  Them or Dodgers in NL West.  Is that your take?

Dan Szymborski: As I said, I thought they were a .500 team but one that could suddenly improve given the construction of their roster

Dan Szymborski: Chris Paddack working out and Lauer/Strahm giving good innings and even the surprise that is Marge Vicious, is a good scenario from them because nothing is *that* crazy

Dan Szymborski: If you sign Kyle Kendrick and he has a 2.00 ERA after a month, you can say “hey, that’s bullshit”

Dan Szymborski: But if a top prospect pitches well, it’s not really crazy, no?

KB: Does JD Davis deserve a starting job once Lowrie returns?

Dan Szymborski: He’ll get PT, but it’s a very crowded team

CamdenWarehouse: Have you noticed that Bill James keeps trying to start a feud with Mike Petriello and Mike is too nice to let it happen?

Dan Szymborski: I have not noticed

Dan Szymborski: Wait, aI ACTUALLY HAVE A RELEVANT GIF SOMEWHERE

Dan Szymborski:

Mario Mendoza: I really can’t see your avatar… is that a bubble pipe?

Dan Szymborski: It’s Andy Reid Taft

Aegon targaryen: Did you watch Game of Thrones last night? Thoughts?

Dan Szymborski: Spoiler free thoughts:

Dan Szymborski: I enjoyed the show, thought the neverending story flying scene was something they don’t really have the time for

Dan Szymborski: a little worried about the pacing because that was 1/6th of the season already and while there were a lot of cool moments, there are a LOT of loose ends to tie up

Slapshot: Who do you think sits on the Iron Throne when Game of Thrones ends this month?

Dan Szymborski: BRONN THE FIRST OF HIS NAME

Michael Winslow: To what extent do you think Trump’s continued refusal to hand over his tax returns is affecting Jacob deGrom’s performance?

Dan Szymborski: Minimally

Sansa Stark: You think the Ms can keep this up?

Dan Szymborski: No, as I said a lot this winter, they’re nowhere near the horrid team that people portrayed them as

Dan Szymborski: they weren’t going to be *that* bad, they were going to be somewhere from middling to mediocre

Dan Szymborski: and they’re a middling to mediocre team that has banked about 4-5 wins more than they should have, which is enough to make them interesting

Tom Brady Anderson: do the Reds past 5 games (4-1, with the team hitting well) meaningfully change your conclusions from last week’s article? at the very least, they’ve begun to dig out of the hole, i suppose

Dan Szymborski: It’s a deep hole. They’re behind where they were at the start of thes eason by definition

Vlad Jr: Can we stop pretending I don’t belong up now, what’s the holdup?

Dan Szymborski: Some boxes to check of course

DJ Tanner: If/when the Mets get healthy, who sits? McNeil was seemingly the odd man out to start the year, but you can’t bench him. Lowrie and Frazier may have a tough time finding time, no?

Dan Szymborski: Frazier especially

Dan Szymborski: They won’t release him, but it gets harder and harder to justify playing time

AJ: Dan types so fast holy schinkeys

Dan Szymborski: INTERMISSION TIME

Dan Szymborski: https://play.typeracer.com?rt=77xx85k1t

Dan Szymborski: 110 and I had to go back and fix a period that was a sentence back

Matt W: Just your weekly reminder that Jason Vargas continues to pitch for the “we’re going for it” Mets.

Dan Szymborski: When I’m “on” I can hit about 130

Derek: How much of the Rays current lineup is legit? It seems to be full of mysteries.

Dan Szymborski: And now I’m so scared about mystery
I fear I smell extinction in the
Folds of this novacaine age coming on
I miss the smell of mystery
Reverb leaking outta tavern doors
And not knowing how the sounds were made

Bring back DeSpaniel Hair: Someone dumped Vladito in my redraft, and the one guy ahead of me on waivers didn’t put in a claim! This has to be a sign that I’m winning it all this year, right?

Dan Szymborski: Or that your friends have lost interest in fantasy!

AJ: When is Sixto Sanchez’s eta

Dan Szymborski: I think you’ll see him pop up some time in 2020

Ghost of George Steinbrenner: I know you’ll probably respond with “April!” but is there legitimate concern that the Yankees will not make the postseason?

Dan Szymborski: Not yet. The AL is not deep

Guest: Dan, what was the name of the Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles’ reporter friend again?

Dan Szymborski: CASEY JONES WAS A SECRET REPORTER

Bo: Does Pache replace Ender in the Braves’ OF by the end of the season? Pache-Acuna-Markakis looks a whole lot better than Acuna-Inciarte-Markakis

Dan Szymborski: Not by year end

Guest: Having trouble remembering that simon and garfunkel song. Something-something come she will? Can you help me out?

Dan Szymborski: I only know garfunkel and oates songs

Matt W: Are you saying Chris Davis has to go back to high school Billy Madison style in order to learn how to hit for average?!?

Dan Szymborski: I didn’t really think of it that way

Dan Szymborski: But yes

Piffington Codswallow V, Esq.: Here here on the chili talk. I want to know what makes a great crabcake Dan.

Dan Szymborski: Crab, old bay, minimum filler

Matt: I get that its the point, but I really hate not being able to distinguish players on Jackie Robinson day

Dan Szymborski: I have to admit I’m not great with uni numbers

Free DudeSlater: Have the White Sox stumbled into long-term solutions on the left side of the infield with Anderson & Moncada?

Dan Szymborski: I’m very Moncada optimistic and moderately Timmeh optimistic

Tyrion Lannister: Aint NOBODY killed the Dinkles!! Peter Dinklage will survive GoT!

Dan Szymborski: https://entertainment.theonion.com/game-of-thrones-creators-franticall…

Sox Fan: Moncada K-rate low 20’s and seems to be maintaining his discipline while hitting earlier in counts and not taking as many 2-strike pitches.  Real or too early?

Dan Szymborski: I think the fact that he’s aggressive and not making worse contact is a big deal

Rick Hahn: How dumb was throwing in Tatis to get Shields?  Man, having him and Manny on the South Side…..

Dan Szymborski: It did turn out worse than you’d expect on average

LFC Mike: Can you clear up the situation with Kimbrel and Keuchel. If they sign before the amateur draft what does the team that signs them lose ..if anything versus if signed after the draft?

Dan Szymborski: Depends on the team and the luxury tax situation

Dan Szymborski: but you lose SOMETHING until the draft

Morbo: Dan, over the weekend i discovered a baseball conspiracy.  Dominic Leone is actually just Nick Frost.

Morbo: Have you ever seen them in the same room? I thought not

Dan Szymborski: Believe it or not but this is NOT John Lackey

Dan Szymborski:

Trevor: Who is the baseball equivalent of Tiger Woods: i.e., a formerly great player who did reprehensible things, but who is now bizarrely revered by the media despite his past transgressions?

Dan Szymborski: I dunno, bobby cox?

Dan Szymborski: He kinda skated on the whole spousal battery more than most

Dan Szymborski: though he’s not really a PLAYER

Aegon Targaryen: I feel like they wasted a lot of valuable time  last night- it just felt like one big reunion episode

Ozzie All-Beans: With the Disney live action stuff coming up, I’m looking forward to Monday chats with Szymba. What other cross-promotional stuff does FG have planned?

Dan Szymborski: Megohantas, Kileymodo

Mike sixel: If the Twins signed keuchel, do you think they’d win the division? Thanks

Dan Szymborski: No

Ari: Do Padres win over 80 games?

Dan Szymborski: Yes

Bring back DeSpaniel Hair: 😞 that you dissed my friends. I want to crush them fair and square! Not due to disinterest

Matt W: I’m pretty sure this Mets season will be like bringing an umbrella when there’s rain in the forecast so of course it doesn’t rain. They finally have the depth to cover injuries on offense, which means this will be the first year ever that they stay reasonably healthy.

AF: Do you think that the tendency to regress all hitters towards a league average ~.290-.300 BABIP is a flaw of the projection systems. Clearly there are hitter types that will tend to have high (fast runners, LD hitters) and low (slow, LHB with high GB pull tendency) BABIP’s, no?

Dan Szymborski: the projection systems (at least ZiPS) takes into account these tendencies

Dan Szymborski: they don’t mean that there’s no regression, only that babip means different things

WPBOrange: Better career: Sandy Alcantara or Pablo Lopez?

Dan Szymborski: alcantara

Hot Pie: I bet I could make the best chili you have ever tried

Dan Szymborski: OK, email me some

Gub Gub: Is a 100% honest GM something that people say they really want, but would regret immediately?

Dan Szymborski: Yes

Ryan: What team would benefit most if Kimbrel signed with them today? What about Keuchel?

Dan Szymborski: Boston

Dan Szymborski: Mariners

Matt: “Reprehensible” seems a little strong for Tiger’s actions, no?

Dan Szymborski: Yeah, it does. I mean, it’s not very nice, but it’s not he beat someone up

Dan Szymborski: Unless I forgot about a detail

Derek: last night’s episode was great – it felt much more like early thrones than last season’s strangely form-breaking, detail-shirking run

Matt W: The baseball equivalent of Tiger is definitely A-rod. His comeback was largely off the field, but the heads of stodgy 00s sportswriters would explode if they knew how popular he is today.

Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure if he’s QUITE beloved yet

Luis Castillo’s cambio: I have all the post-hype hype for Luis Castillo. Has he turned the corner?

Dan Szymborski: He turned it last fall

BenZ: So I understand the concept of fielders choice hen the batter reaches and someone else is out, but I’ve never understood a fielders choice where everyone is safe. Why can’t that just be either a hit or an error?

Dan Szymborski: chaos is a ladder

Matt W: Does Eloy turn it on soon, or does it seem like he’ll have a more Moncada-esque winding road to realizing his potential? He’s looked… okay so far.

Dan Szymborski: You’re complaining about a guy with like 115 OPS+ in two weeks. I’m calling the police

AF: This is a baseball chat, not GoT chat people

Dan Szymborski:

Ryan: Last night may have been a big reunion episode, but at least they got the Yara rescue out of the way

kobrien: screw you and your typing game. I cannot stop now

Dan Szymborski: Uh oh, there’s a 10 minute period where questions just stop

Derek: Why is Theon still alive?

Dan Szymborski: fulfill the redemption arc

isaacmeep: the dan straily no hit bid is off 🙁

Dan Szymborski: With Straily, you look more for a no-outer

Nate: It kind of amazes me how many people on here are incapable of watching baseball and GOT and eating chili all in the same life. Does that make those of us that do total bad a’s?

Dan Szymborski: It’s hard to watch baseball and GOT at the same time

Dan Szymborski: but you can eat chili while watching baseball

Dan Szymborski: you don’t watch baseball with your digestive system

kobrien: Has their been a Carlos Rodon mindset shift this year? End of last year, he seemed more concerned with limiting walks and inducing groundouts and we watched the K rate plummet. This year, the walks are back up, but he is striking out everyone. Any thoughts on what we are seeing?

Dan Szymborski: I’ve been a Rodon believer for a long time, the problem is he’s just never been healthy for long periods

Dan Szymborski: I’d have to look it up to find actual evidence, but from watching, my *impression* is that his slider suffers after long injuries

Dan Szymborski: though I know he’s epxeriemented a few times trying NOT to throw it

Derek: Over-under 1.5 on Chris Davis’ longest hitting streak this year?

Dan Szymborski: Over. He can get a hit in consecutive games if he heats up

Mart: The biggest unintended consequence of the asinine 3-batter rule will be elite relievers not coming in at all in a high-leverage spot on the third day in a row, for fear that the one out they’re supposed to get that day will stretch in to three.

Dan Szymborski: I dont’ think it’s going to be a big deal

MadBum: So, I am still leading my team in position player WAR. At what point would that start to get people’s attention? How far into a season has a pitcher ever led his team in WAR?

Dan Szymborski: Not sure

Dan Szymborski: But Wes Ferrell I know was second once

eamuscatuli14: Bigger need for the Cubs based on their first 14 games: a quality relief pitcher or a quality starter? Also, is Keuchel an option for the Cubs, the need seems to be there — at what point does Theo/Jed/Ricketts decide to go that route if at all?

Dan Szymborski: I’d go for Keuchel, another option to the “most use Keuchel” question

Dan Szymborski: but they’re TOTALLY OUT OF MONEY, BRAH

James: I watched all 3 Mariners games this weekend I don’t think they used a single relief pitcher I had heard of before. That seems bad for their future chances right?

Dan Szymborski: Not necessarily. It can also mean a team is putting together a good bullpen cheaply!

Dan Szymborski: Like you probably heard of EVERYONE on the Rockies bullpen last couple years

Fangraph’s Lurker: I’ve failed the bar exam twice now, convince me life is worth living,

Dan Szymborski: Lawyering is a lot of work

Ben: Szell, Ormandy, Munch, Reiner……rank em.

Dan Szymborski: Munch, Reiner, Szell, Ormandy

Dan Szymborski: I find too much of Ormandy a little middle of the road

Ned Stark: Who is the Cersei of baseball?

Dan Szymborski: After the Albies contract, maybe Alex Anthopoulos!

Dan Szymborski: We’ll see if the Coppolella thing was just a DEVIOUS plan by agents working for AA

Dan Szymborski: Schoolboy Rowe was only a half-win off the batting WAR lead for the Phillies that weird year they went as the Blue Jays

Matt: Is there a surgery I can get where I install an overflow valve in my stomach so I can eat as much burrito as I would like, regardless of how hungry I am?

Dan Szymborski: It exists, but it is unpleasant

Neal: Greater current cause for concern – Yankees or Red Sox

Dan Szymborski: Red Sox

CamdenWarehouse: 3/4 Orioles teams from 07-10 had a pitcher lead in bWAR

Rick: What is your opinion on M.Franco?  Does he have enough upside to potentially be a top 10 third baseman or are odds just a replacement type value?

Dan Szymborski: I think most of the upside is gone

Derek: Orioles manager just said a lot of bad words

Ghost of George Steinbrenner: Do you think if the mountain was a baseball player he’d be Giancarlo? I guess there’s a case for Chris Davis after all those swings and misses he had against Oberyn

Dan Szymborski: ouch

HugoZ: The fact that the charge against Bobby Cox was dropped might’ve had something to do with that.

Dan Szymborski: That’s legal sufficiency

Dan Szymborski: but it’s not like the police game because someone misinterpreted them acting a scene from streetcar named desire

Matt: After waiting a few weeks to evaluate their pitching staff, the Yankees are most like to a) entertain a conversation with Keuchal, b) entertain a conversation with SF on MadBum, c) keep on trotting JA Happ out as their third best pitcher

Dan Szymborski: C before B way before A

marichal: Who hits more HRs this year, Ryan Braun or Franmil Reyes?

Dan Szymborski: I’m an optimist so let’s say Franmil

Dan Szymborski: And Hedges may hit more home runs than Hosmer who may hit more home runs than an actual hedge.

Slapshot: German Marquez’s ceiling is a Top ___ pitcher?

Dan Szymborski: Chef

Dan Szymborski: I mostly want to see an episode in which Cy Young candidates have to prepare duck confit

Chris: Would you rather trade for MadBum or sign Keuchel?  What would it take to get MadBum?

Dan Szymborski: Probably sign Keuchel. I’m not sure Giants are in place yet where they *really* want to face the truth

Dan Szymborski: Zaidi probably does, but no GM or team president is the dictator of their team

CamdenWarehouse: I’m going to pretend Hyde was ejected for protesting an 11:00 AM baseball game

Michael Conforto: What can the Mets get for Dom Smith? Back end starter with some years of control sound fair?

Dan Szymborski: I think they’d get a sorta prospect. Smith’s perceived value around the league is not high

Dan Szymborski: If the Mets could get a cheap Vargas replacement for Smith, he’d have been gone last year

Kimbrel queries: If Peter Piper picked a peck of pickled peppers, how long would it take a monkey with a rubber butt to suck the seeds out of a dill pickle?

Dan Szymborski: The latter is not reliant on the former. Peter Piper’s participating is positively not pertinent.

snowman: who are the top SP trade candidates this season?

Dan Szymborski: MadBum for sure, Duffy if he ever shows a pulse, I think Dylan Bundy ends up somewhere

robertobeers: What’s your first take on the hearthstone standard meta? Arena feels so much more powerful and it’s brilliant.

Dan Szymborski: I enjoy the new standard meta but I am very uneasy about token druid’s power level

Matt: There’s a hole in this whole Peter Piper story, Dan. Pickling is a process done after peppers are picked. You can’t pick an already pickled pepper. What exactly was Peter picking, and why does the CIA not want us to know the truth?

Dan Szymborski: You assume picked means off a plant

Dan Szymborski: it could mean he CHOSE a particular variety of a pickled peppers from his grocer’s selection and bought enough to constitute an entire peck.

snowman: stroman?

Dan Szymborski: Yeah, Stroman has to be a good candidate too

Rules are rules: A two batter minimum makes way more sense to me than 3. Your thoughts?

Dan Szymborski: DOn’t forget guys, end of inning also counts as 3

Dan Szymborski: if it’s the last out of the inning, the guy doesn’t have to come back for two more batters

Dan Szymborski: unless I REALLY missed something

Dan Szymborski: On that note, it is time for me to depart.

Dan Szymborski: Thank you for joining me, ladies and gentlemen.

Dan Szymborski: OK, mostly gentlemen.

Dan Szymborski: Maybe all.

Dan Szymborski: WHAT IS DEAD CAN NEVER DIE