Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 4/16/26

Dan Szymborski: It’s clobberin’ time!

Dan Szymborski: AI is getter better at making fun of me, BTW.

Guest: Vegas had notably much worse ratings on the Twins than both ZIPS and PECOTA (not to mention the fans). Has anything you’ve seen in the Twins playing what has been pretty good baseball so far justified that much higher projection in your mind?

Dan Szymborski: Well, Taj Bradley’s been really darn good, I mean sub two FIP

Dan Szymborski: and Mick Abel has been really solid too (and one of the boom picks)

Dan Szymborski: I’m not confident at all they’re this good, but I think this was always a team in the .500 vicinity

Dan Szymborski: The way they sold off last year was such a bad look and their cheap winter has caused people to underrate them

Dan Szymborski: Now, the 2026 Twins aren’t as good as the 2025 Blue Jays (I THINK), but 70-92 was worse than their talent level in 2025, even considering the trade deadline, just like the 2024 Jays weren’t *really* a 74-88 team and the 2023 Yankees not *really* an 80-82 team

Dan Szymborski: People react too wildly to the extremes; they assume that the lousy season or the great season are baselines where all improvements or declines are pegged from

Dan Szymborski: Like the pushback I got about the 2025 Toronto projections was “They didn’t add 15 wins this offseason dumbass, so how could they be competitive!” But it was the wrong question, because that was nevr the starting point

Cy Jos: What do you think it would take for Shohei to win the Cy Young? Something like 2021 Burnes since he will almost certainly lack volume compared to Skenes/Sanchez/Yamamoto?

Dan Szymborski: It’ll be really tough. He won’t have the high leverage inning argument that a closer does

Dan Szymborski: IP is really important for a starting pitcher in the award voting.

Dan Szymborski: And nobody’s going to feel bad since he’ll probabaly be the MVP

Dan Szymborski: If Mason Miller has a huge season, I wonder if, weirdly, the BBWAA’s new reliever award might actually hurt Miller’s Cy Young chances since there’s an “appropriate” award for him now

Wrights_Back: Lindor’s early season struggles are well documented, but defense is supposed to be “slump resistant.’   So, what gives?    Theories abound, but I’m curious if research has been done on off field issues.  I’m not accusing him of anything, but:
a) What  explanations are likely (non hamate related),
AND
b) Is this an area of interest as an explanatory?   I mean if your wife was cheating with your manager, it might show up in the box score.  

Again, not Lindon specific, just agonizing the watch at times.

Dan Szymborski: FRV is still volatile

Dan Szymborski: Someone on Reddit actually suggested I look at player performance in month before their wife gives birth

Dan Szymborski: Which is interesting, though the legwork to put that data together is a real pain

Dan Szymborski: I might do something on that sometime if nobody else does

Dan Szymborski: I just have a pretty big queue stacked up, as  is typical for me

Dan Szymborski: There are a thousand things I want to do in ZiPS, and I may not only have enough functional life left to do 500 of them

Dan Szymborski: I’ve been working on ZiPS for 24 years. I’m going to be 48 in June. ZiPS needs to be somewhere near the halfway point of my contribution being finished, maybe a little farther

Murakami: Through walks going down but hits starting to fall, do you think his overall offensive output this year could look something like his current rate stats?

Dan Szymborski: No, his rate stats will go up. He has a .172 BABIP

Dan Szymborski: No MLBer has a true .172 BABIP

Dan Szymborski: because frigging PITCHERS as a group are like 50-60 pionts better than that

Dan Szymborski: Since 2008, pitchers as a group have a .232 BABIP on balls in play that were not bunt attempts

Dan Szymborski: RANDY JOHNSON has a career .234 BABIP

Dan Szymborski: and nobody’s going to convince me that a dude with a 59% hard hit rate in the majors and a regular 30 HR hitter in Japan, is 60 points of BABIP worse at getting hits than a pitcher is

Archer: More like Kevin McGonnagetpaid, amirite? It does feel like between this and the Framber signing, Harris and Illitch are trying to get ahead of the criticisms for when they don’t pursue Skubal at all this winter

Dan Szymborski: I mean, it’s not unreasonable

Dan Szymborski: The amount that Skubal is going to require *is* a scary amount for a pitcher given the injury history

Dan Szymborski: Even ignoring the PR aspects of it, even if the Tigers were intending to bid aggressively for Skubal, you *do* want to have as much of your team shored up as you can

Dan Szymborski: Imagine they signed Skubal for $350 million today. Signing McGonigle is *still* a good signing because there’s a real risk you might have to pay him like Skubal later

Dan Szymborski: With Skubal signed you STILL need Framber Valdez

Dan Szymborski: and so on

Dan Szymborski: While I’m unhappy when teams don’t invest in their own talent, I also recognize that teams are going to act in what they perceive is their best interest. A lot of the crappy things like service time games and optimizing for 88 wins suck, but they’re also incentivized by baseball’s structure

Dan Szymborski: Like the Rays – they don’t seem to get a huge financial windfall when they’re good. So they don’t get a good return on money even if it makes the team better

Dan Szymborski: As I said a few years ago, revenue sharing should be tied to market size *AND* wins

Dan Szymborski: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/mlbs-competitive-balance-tax-is-anything-b…

Jeffrey Springs: Are you or ZIPS buying Springs start to the season?

Dan Szymborski: Not really. I mean I like him fine, but he also hasn’t allowed any homers. Now, he’s pitching in a way that his HR/9 should be improved, but a few homers really brings that FIP down to earth

Bing bong: generic McGonigle ZiPS question

Dan Szymborski: standard baseball analyst sarcastic rejoinder

Julius: Any reason to worry about how Konner Griffin is adjusting to MLB competition? Lot’s of Ks, limited contact (~68 contact %), defense is not grading well (in a small sample)

Dan Szymborski: mildly concerned. Nothing long-term, but he does nee dto shore things up

jbk: The Mets are not winning another game this season. Prove me wrong.

Dan Szymborski: Here’s the thing: Mets tragedies are fueled by Mets triumphs. The Mets didn’t have enough triumphs since the end of the 2025 season to justify the 2026 tragedy.

Dan Szymborski: So I expect htey’ll turn it around, get a three game lead in the NL East, and then the clubhouse gets Legionnaire’s disease at the trade deadline

Oaktown Blues: Think Jeffrey Springs is back in mid-rotation form now, a couple years out from TJS? Fastball velo is back to 2022/2023 levels

Dan Szymborski: Now, if you’re talking mid-rotation form, I believe in THAT

Scott: Wyatt Langford, what happened?

Dan Szymborski:

10-8!: To clarify, I buy ZiPS ROS projection for the Cardinals, 10-8 start is fun, but doesn’t mean much. But, out of curiosity for how ZiPS reacts to changes, what type of May would it take for a Cards-like team to have a .500+ ROS projection?

Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure I can gauge that super quickly!

Dan Szymborski: You’d need it to be sustainable improvements

Dan Szymborski: They have at least one – Walker’s done enough to have a big effect on his ZiPS

Dan Szymborski: enough real things

GBS42: Going back to a chat from probably 2-3 years ago, I went to Zip’s Cafe in the Mt. Lookout area of Cincinnati and tried their burger. To each their own, of course – and they’re celebrating their 100th anniversary, so good for them – but I’d call it a 2.5-WAR burger, just a bit above average.

Dan Szymborski: It’s hard to have a notable burger

Dan Szymborski: Because the basic burger paradigm isn’t hard to execute, and so many people make burgers!

Dan Szymborski: An average burger is really darn good, and you can get an average burger dozens of places in five minutes of driving through a commercially zoned area

drplantwrench: i have zero expectations of the angels maintaining literally anything at this point, so they decide to prove me wrong and play decent ~.500 baseball.  will they continue to be mid out of spite, or will things fall apart?

Dan Szymborski: I’m skeptical of Angels

Oaktown Blues: Nick Kurtz with a 59.6% contact rate so far this year…please say April

Dan Szymborski: April…but be a bit concerned

Naylor Sailor: In your will, which cat is the lead beneficiary for ZiPS, or are they all at equal percentages?

Dan Szymborski: My executor does have instructions and funding for their care should my mom and sister predecease me

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS I still have to figure out

Dan Szymborski: David’s email is in my will and my executor has instructions that he has authority to work with David to figure out something fair for my estate and any possible charitable donations

Dan Szymborski: Which I should probably mention to David at some point

Dan Szymborski: David sometimes takes care of negotiations for me that put me in an awkward spot

Tacoby Bellsbury: If it’s really clobberin’ time, whose hulked-out starts do you believe in most?

Dan Szymborski: Walker, though I’ve been burned before!

Dan Szymborski: and as you might see if you read th earticle, Ben Rice

Guest: How does Slade Cecconi project as a full-time reliever? Not a early-season knee-jerk reaction, but he clearly has had problems post-1TTO throughout his career in the majors, and at some point they have to pull the trigger on moving him to the pen, right?

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS projects a 3.65 ERA for him this year as a reliever

Mickey: How bad are the situations the Mets and the Phillies find themselves in? Which is more likely to turn things around?

Dan Szymborski: I’m not actually worried about either going forward, though there’s a risk that they dig too deep a hole to get themselves out of

Rico: Most impactful baseball books you’ve read?

Dan Szymborski: The Abstracts starting when I was 7 since it kinda guided me long term

drplantwrench: maybe the lesson is that the white sox should get murakami on the mound stat.  dudes BABIP suggests hes gonna be obliterating seagulls soon

BP: Is Jesus Luzardo doomed to underperform his peripherals for always and eternity?

Dan Szymborski: I wouldn’t say that yet, though you do expect even a FIP neutral guy to have an ERA a little higher than their FIP with the Phillies

Oaktown Blues: Scott Barlow’s velo has been down from his 2020-2021 peak for a while, but this year it plummeted another 3 MPH from last year, now at 89.2. He hasn’t been too bad so far but do you think this will spell the end of his effectiveness?

Dan Szymborski: Sudden mph deltas are really dangerous

Mr. Redlegs: Sal Stewart has been awesome and can’t stop hitting home runs. But he literally can’t pull the ball at all. I don’t think I’ve ever seen his version of production before. How much of a problem is that for the future?

Dan Szymborski: It might cap his HR total a bit, but I’m nto really worried overall

Aaron: With Bryce Miller coming back from the IL, Emerson Hancock seemingly breaking out, and Kade Anderson looking great in AA, predict the Mariners starting rotation on August 4th.

Dan Szymborski: I predict it will consist of five pitchers!

Naylor Sailor: The Mariners are the best team in the AL (by BaseRuns). Hang the banner!

Dan Szymborski: There’s a rich history of premature banners

drplantwrench: zach neto continues to be an enigma defensively.  hes second in the majors in DRS for SS, but middle of the group in OAA.  i assume its cuz the eye test like him more than models, but how do you square that circle?

Dan Szymborski: OAA tends to be more predictive than DRS

Dan Szymborski: I think DRS does have some value though because defense is weird

Mike Trout Mask Replica: Dan! Thanks for the chat. Dating back to last year, it seems like Javy Baez has performed better when playing CF than his various other positions. Is there any data supporting this, or is it just vibes?

Dan Szymborski: He has hit better at CF, but not by a huge amount, and not a large sample really

JC: Does ZiPS care if in-season performance is linear or eratic month to month?

Dan Szymborski: There’s too much noise in that

Dan Szymborski: If someone has massaged something actually predictive out of that, well, that someone’s not me

OW: I know small sample size yada yada, but what do you make of Torkelson’s start? Insane BB% gains, but is it costing him power?

Dan Szymborski: I wouldn’t read too much into it. Though he’s been really passive at the plate, and there’s a danger in that

Dan Szymborski: I call that Ben Grieve syndrome

Dan Szymborski: just like there’s a Luis Arraez death spiral, where you have to remember that contact is a means to an end, not the end

Dan Szymborski: plate discipline, similarly, is also a means to an end, not the end itself

JC: I’m sad, Dan

Dan Szymborski: I am sorry

Mason: My man Dan. Hope you are doing well. I am, of note, a biased Cardinals fan. However, Jordan Walker’s start is awesome for everyone to watch. Do you have an adjusted projections/gut feelings for how this will work out over the season?

Dan Szymborski: He’s not going to stay a star, but I think there’s a good chance that we’re getting that power breakout at least

Sal’s Mom: Elly looking better in basically every aspect so far this season. Is this gonna be his superstar 8 war season?

Dan Szymborski: It’s very possible

Dan Szymborski: he was playing through some nagging injuries last year

JC: Langford or Wilyer Abreu this year and next year?

Dan Szymborski: probably still langford

J: Are witnessing the beginning of a Yordan Alvarez MVP campaign?

Dan Szymborski: Well, if there is to be an Alvarez MVP season, this is what the approach woudl look like!

Kid Charlemagne: Sub David Stearns for your name in the AI strip!

Dan Szymborski:

Matt: would Zips rather have Matt Shaw or Cam Smith for the next 5 years?

Dan Szymborski: Shaw

WBC enjoyer: how much more does Zips like Jordan Walker than before?

Dan Szymborski: He’s up 10 points ROS in wRC+ in the simple in season model and 19 points in the full one

Oaktown Blues: Replacement level for burgers is really high, agreed

10-8!: Just wanted to thank you as always for doing these, I enjoy tuning in live/reading later.

Dan Szymborski: BUT YOU HERE NOW

Dan Szymborski: OR IS IT ALREADY LATER

Carl Crawford: My son only has one barrel and one ball pulled in the air. Surface stats look good but the batted ball profile portends trouble. ZiPs still in on him?

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS still like. He’s likely a high BABIP guy

Jimmy (Catching) Crooks: You mentioned the Rice article that Jordan Walker has the most gain from preseason ZIPs. What does his 3 year outlook look like now?

Dan Szymborski: average playery

Dan Szymborski: which is preetty darn good considering what the projection WAS

War2D2: Also: I hereby publicly apologize for thinking all these years that you were the one who disparaged Chicago tavern-cut pizza.

Dan Szymborski: Yeah, in a BlueSky conversation, we found the real culprit: Guest

Look At This Sotograph: What’s wrong with Sonny Gray? My man has halved his strikeout rate this year.

Dan Szymborski: What’s really worrisome is that it is supported by the contact rate. He’s basically bled a third of his swings-and-misses from last year

Debate Me: Team “ownership” should be dissolved, the major leagues administered by anonymous bureaucrats paid by the players-collective, and salaries beyond a rookie (1m) and veteran (1.75m) minimum should be distributed end of season by an average of leading WAR formulae

Dan Szymborski: A system that everyone will hate!

Jimmy (Catching) Crooks: With all these other highly touted prospects getting extensions, what would ZIPs think is fair for Wetherholt?

Dan Szymborski: I’m holding off on Wetherholt because I want to write about that one if it happens!

Chance Crisco: Jose Ramirez is a few weeks away from 300-300. Does ZIPS give him any chance at all of getting to 400-400? I imagine the stolen bases would be the harder part of that

Dan Szymborski: He was around 50% at last check I believe

Taco Derek Bell: What did you think of trails beyond the horizon?

Dan Szymborski: I really enjoyed the game, though I wish Falcom was being quicker at resolving the insane cliffhanger

Dan Szymborski: it was one of their most productive games storyline-wise for a while, as they answered quite a few long-running questions about the world itself. and answered a few mysteries from even the first trilogy of the game

Dan Szymborski: We now know what Kevin was doing in Calvard that he was investigating between Trails Sky SC and TC and the meaning of the 31 Cypress Trees book

Ben: Cubs fans were losing their mind 2 days ago. Amazing what checks notes, 2 wins, will do.

Dan Szymborski: I mean it comes from fanatic

‘Merica is a supremacist death cult: Does it ever bother you how unappreciative and entitled consumers are towards The Product (players)? I’m convinced, not really, most sports fans neither watch or play sports so much as have a way to gamble

Dan Szymborski: You spend your money, you get your say, really

Dan Szymborski: Now, I don’t endorse a lot of what fans do

Dan Szymborski: But they’re customers

Wallyworld: Hey Dan, just wanted to get your thoughts on the new wave of prospect/prearb contracts?  Seems like younger unproven guys are getting paid which is a plus for them, but somewhat capping/pushing back prime FA years.  From the ownership side, they are getting a bit more risk as obviously not all prospects pan out…..but also saving prime FA year $$$.  It just seems to almost make sense….which rarely happens

Dan Szymborski: I mean, it’s two parties trading off risks

Dan Szymborski: going from $1 million to $100 million is more valuable for someone than going from $101 million to $200 million, I imagine

Pat: Funny on the burger comment, I agree. I have a few local favorites that I like more, but, otherwise, it’s what it is. The other point- I will only get a burger at a “normal” (non fast food, not a known burger spot) restaurant if they have nothing else I like on the menu. Good safe fallback option.

Dan Szymborski: A burger is usually a safe bet

mmddyyyy: If Mason Miller threw say 60 amazing innings and won the Cy Young, he’d have a third the innings of a starter. How good would a position player need to be in 250 ABs to get MVP consideration?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think a position player CAN unless they do something absolutely certifiably insane

Guest: I am getting very serious vibes about the Pirates. The rotation is looking very solid and the acquisitions, O;Hearn and Lowe

Dan Szymborski: it’s so far so good

The Actor for Al Pacino: Thoughts on Emerson and Pratt getting paid with the immediate plan being the minors? I don’t think we’ve seen that in particular before, the 0-days-service-time extension has been tied at the hip to debuting

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think it’s necessarily a problem

Pirates Fan: Thoughts on the Pirates rotation once Jared Jones comes back? Do you think they go to a 6 man rotation or put either Mlodzinski or Jones in the Pen? From watching Mlodzinski pitch he seems pretty good in a starter role this year?

Dan Szymborski: II think they might go 6-man

Thanks Dan: Cam Smith future star?

Dan Szymborski: Not sold on that

Fin: Is it #over for Rafael Devers? When will it be #over if he continues producing like this?

Dan Szymborski: This is really too soon

Dan Szymborski: I mean yeah, he would be done as a .600 OPS guy, but I dont’ think he’ll be a .600 OPS guy

The Actor for Al Pacino: It’s so weird that Aaron Judge has a 152 wRC+ and I feel like he’s still starting slow…

‘Merica is a supremacist death cult: Prbly a job for Jaffe, think we need some talk of the “amateur” and MiLB background, but article request: Ode to Carson Kelly…Guy’s arc seems very in line with how I see the post-pandemic landscape for players

Hiro: Any reason to believe Pages could sustain a 140-150 wrc+ and good defence during the season?

Dan Szymborski: too rich for my blood

Matt McLain: so was my spring more signal or noise?

Dan Szymborski: spring means something, but it hasn’t looked good so far!

Idiotic Failson: Speaking of ‘April’, how about Cameron Schlittler? He leads the league in pitcher WAR – does he finish in the top 10 this year?

Dan Szymborski: I think there’s a chance

Dan Szymborski: after all, I put him on the booms list because I thought there was a chance

Dan Szymborski: and it’s not like his 2026 performance would change my mind negatively!

Phil: Will any white sox player who qualifies with enough at bats this year hit above .225? its getting really hard to watch

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS still thinks Hays will finish at .251!

SidDaAstrosKid: Howdy Dan, I saw a clip of Shohei changing up his delivery yesterday to fool Francisco Lindor during an AB (clip was courtesy of pitchingninja), is that a common thing for pitchers to do/ this may be a dumb follow up, why don’t they do it more often during games?

Dan Szymborski: I think one reason is that there’s a risk of inconsistent mechanics

Dan Szymborski: If someone could pull it off, a real set of volatile windups might be interesting as as value option

Dan Szymborski: Especially if someone can pull it off super weird. Like be Bob Gibson one pitch and then Darren O’Day the next. But you don’t see guys do that because consistent mechanics are also crucial for execution

Galahad: Over the years I’ve seen countless claims that a given hitter is “streaky”. Are you aware of any work done to try to define “streakiness” and determine whether some are more prone than others? My belief is that everyone is “streaky”, and the idea that some hitters are consistently more so is a vestige of perception.

Dan Szymborski: I haven’t seen much predictive value in streakiness

Dan Szymborski: BUT

Dan Szymborski: players are a little more streaky than you expect from random chance, but it supports some ebb and flow of a player’s underlying ability

Dan Szymborski: like there are more no-hitters than you expect from chance

Guest: Jumping off from the burger issue, how hard is it to find passable chili outside of Texas?

Dan Szymborski: I’ve found passable chili outside of Texas

Dan Szymborski: what vexes me is that it seems almost impossible to get good hot chicken above the mason-dixon line

mmddyyyy: How many Fangraphs members are there?

Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure really

Syndergaardengnomes: Just mentioning that I will be henceforth known as Replacement Level Hamburger.

Jimmy (Catching) Crooks: Burgers are a 30 grade food and are too greasy.

Dan Szymborski: banned

Dan Szymborski: OK, I have a ton on my plate, so I have to cut this pretty strictly at 1 PM today

Dan Szymborski: but thanks for coming everyone and I’lls ee you next time!

Dan Szymborski: Lotta good questions this week and I didn’t have a great percentage at being able to answer 🙁