Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 4/22/21

Dan Szymborski: Greetings all!

Dan Szymborski: Sorry for the lost chat last week. I was getting COVID vaccine deux.

Dan Szymborski: And definitely felt awful afterwards!

ballsandgutters: Proud FG ad free member here….

So about 5 years ago you and I got in a Twitter fight about whether Carlos Beltran is HOF worthy.   I said no.      I think I’m gonna win on a technicality.     BTW – if you want to get me a beer ask Eno for a rec

Dan Szymborski: Thanks for the support! I’d grumble about you winning on a technicality but…

Dan Szymborski:

John: What do the Rockies know that the rest of us do not?

Dan Szymborski: Not much.

Dan Szymborski: I’d say the passwords to their network

Dan Szymborski: but I’m guessing upper management has to call IT a lot about that

Dan Szymborski: assumign they haven’t sent IT out to be clubbies

Dino Sawr: Well it looks like the Cubs offense is fixed! No need to worry moving forward, right?

Dan Szymborski: As Homer said to Moe when Moe was going to do a car insurance scam “You’re a genius, Moe! All your troubles will soon be over for a couple of months.”

Dan Szymborski: Luckily, it’s a lousy devision

Raphie C: With the dreaded forearm tightness diagnosis being leveled on Dinelson Lamet (and recently TJ’d Adrian Morejon), do you believe the Padres have enough starting pitching depth remaining in the system to keep them viable in the home stretch of the season?

Dan Szymborski: I do.

Dan Szymborski: They have a lot of options and I’d be shocked that if they start to lose more pitching, if they weren’t aggressive about making an addition

Coby: Will the Nationals finish in last place?

Dan Szymborski: Stiull think Marlins

sdz: Would you provide a guesstimate of the probability of the Pirates finishing with 75 wins. Assume the team will not trade away the majority of the players who perform well. Thanks.

Dan Szymborski: 15%

Vader: Anything about Trevor Rogers that screams fluke, or is this kid for real?

Dan Szymborski: Nothing screams fluke. Check out the solid xERA for last season!

Dan Szymborski: Even in the most pessimistic projection system (ZiPS here), he’s already a league average dude

Dan Szymborski: He could have very easily made my breakout list

LFC Mike: McDonalds is introducing a chili dipping sauce with its BTS meal. Is the world officially coming to an end?  At least it doesn’t have beans……

Dan Szymborski: I don’t get fast food dipping sauce, because if I’m getting fast food, it’s because I’m in my car.

Dan Szymborski: And if I’m in my car, I don’t want to have sauces.

Dan Szymborski: Now, I’ve eaten soup in the car before, but after enough crotch burnings, I stick to easy-to-eat car things

Vader: Is Dustin May now the most talented starter in LA?

Dan Szymborski: It’s quite possible. I still think he’s somewhat raw still

Guest: Ke’Bryan Hayes reaggravated his wrist injury yesterday. Not the injury news I wanted to hear waking up. Meanwhile the rest of the team is…not the 2003 Tigers, I guess?

Dan Szymborski: Thanks you, mediocre division!

Champdo: Could you see the Tigers trading Turnbull or do you think they see him as a building block?

Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure they think of him as a key part of the core, but I think they likely hang onto him

Bobby: For the Mets, defense is costing them games more than a lack of offense.  Should they play Guillorme instead of Davis at 3B?  Yesterday’s error filled game against the Cubs was a case in point. Davis drives in a run but his error opened the floodgates.

Dan Szymborski: I’d honestly play McNeil at third and Guillorme at second with groundball pitchers on the mound, especially against righty-heavy lineups

Dan Szymborski: The Mets have a history with this kind of defensive platoon. Remember the Raffy Santana vs. Hojo/Mitchell SS split in 1986?

Dan Szymborski: That team was good!

Vader: Thanks for the chat Dan. We come to you to open our eyes to things we may be missing in the world of baseball, not in the world of chili 🙁           So what under the radar players have impressed you so far that we need to start paying attention to?

Dan Szymborski: YOU BETTER COME TO ME FOR CHILI

Dan Szymborski: Probably can’t call Glasnow/Burnes under

Dan Szymborski: what about Freddy Peralta?

Dan Szymborski: He’s been terrific

Dan Szymborski: That slider he started using last year has been nasty

Dan Szymborski: And dont’ think he’s good yet, but Naquin has been CRUSHING things

The Chicken Runs at Midnight: How many K’s before a Burnes walk? Knock on wood afterwards.

Dan Szymborski: Any walk he issues will be mercy

Dan Szymborski: He has to leave one batter alive to tell the others

Guest: Rays pitching has been hit hard by injuries and truly MEH (they’ve given up the most runs of any team in the league). How long until the Rays abandon everyone except Glasnow as a true starter and just have ~10 1x through the order guys bopping around between the majors and minors?

Dan Szymborski: I think with no true starters or just one, it becomes really hard to get enough innings without abandoning several of the true short-stint guys

Dan Szymborski: But who knows?

Wallet Inspector: Thoughts on heckling the pitcher at the ballpark while he’s warming up? Good fun or a-hole move?

Dan Szymborski: Any time on the field, heckling is allowed!

Dan Szymborski: Though I’ve never been much a heckler

Dan Szymborski: I think the last negative thing at yelled at the field was calling Jonathan Schuerholz “Johnny Nepotism” after an awful screwup in a minor league game in 2001 or so

Jim Leyland Palmer: Which of the big free agent SS have the best chances to stay at the position for the duration of their new big deals?

Dan Szymborski: I think Story likely does

Dan Szymborski: Not that I think he won’t be moved at the end

Dan Szymborski: but Seager and Correa are bigger and Correa has a regular injury history

Wallet Inspector: Nerd!!

KB: Hey Dan I’m really concerned about Dansby Swanson. Is he just not a very good hitter and it is what it is? People have always expected more because of his pedigree but with 2000 career PA under his belt his 85 OPS+ is looking like that’s about where he’ll settle in.

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think there’s necessarily anything wrong with that

Dan Szymborski: He’s an averageish player

Dan Szymborski: It’s a case of Gregg Jefferies Disease

Dan Szymborski: when a hyped player becomes underrated just because they didn’t end up amazing

Andy: Is Casey Kelly and his hard hit % to be trusted? He’s hitting the ball hard and showing patience. Is there something in there that shows this is all a mirage or is he just getting comfortable with the main catching duties in the desert?

Dan Szymborski: Did a double-take on Casey!

Dan Szymborski: But I still call Cody Bellinger Clay a lot

Dan Szymborski: I wouldn’t be too skeptical about Kelly’s ability to hit the ball really hard. He did it in 2019 after all

Danny: Assuming he stays healthy all season, Kershaw is on pace for something in the range of a 9-10 WAR season.  This would be his best season by WAR standards.  What do you give the odds of him actually accomplishing this with the change in profile this year? Over/under 10%?

Dan Szymborski: Under

Dan Szymborski: 9 WAR pitching seasons are hard

Wallet Inspector: Have you read “Thinking, Fast and Slow”?

Dan Szymborski: I have not

Dan Szymborski: My thought process is slow, and deliberative, except for the first half-second I think of something, which is always the dumbest thought I’ve ever had in my life

Dan Szymborski:

Dan Szymborski:

Adam: How bad does Torres have to be this year for the Yankees to enter the 2022 shortstop bidding wars?

Dan Szymborski: Depends how much they sour on him

Dan Szymborski: Probably fairly bad?

Dan Szymborski: They stick with Gary Sanchez

Dan Szymborski: who was not popular with the fanbase for, you know, getting injured

comish4lif: Dinelson Lamet – will he get enough starts to be a useful fantasy player in 2021?

Dan Szymborski: I hope so, but the injury is a real concern

Selling Jeans: Swallows return to Capistrano and the A’s are discounted in yet another season, then get around to making history if not championships. Why does Beane/Forst constantly defy FG and every other expert?

Dan Szymborski: I can’t speak for other systems, but A’s aren’t systematically underrated in ZiPS

Dan Szymborski: Unnder current methodology, which goes back to 2014

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS projected 524 wins for A’s vs. 530 actual

Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: Can you make an exception to your “APRIL” policy to confirm that the Yankees are, indeed the worst team in the Junior Circuit?

Dan Szymborski: Sorry, I still think it’ll be the Rangers

Andrew Benintendi & Joc Pederson: 🙁

Motown Oden: Teeing you up for an “April” answer–I know it’s only 16 games, but with Tatis having been injured, is it okay for me think Jazz is most exciting player in MLB?!?!?

Dan Szymborski: It’s OK to think just about anything aesthetically!

Dan Szymborski: If you came in saying you love the Big Bang Theory, I might think your nuts, but who am I to crap on your guffaws?

BringBackDeSpanielHair: Dan, I’m freaking out at this point. I’m 0-3 in a shallow H2H league. I’ve lost Soto and Tatis and Paxton in various weeks, Gallo can’t get a pitch to hit, and Dom Smith and Eugenio Suarez can’t hit their way out of paper bags… Please tell me there’s hope for me!

Dan Szymborski: April

resumeman: is Yermin Mercedes even remotely for real, or just a hot flash?

Dan Szymborski: GUYS I DID A PIECE

Dan Szymborski: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/april-hitting-stats-mean-nothing-except-th…

Adam: Is Kenley now just George Costanza without his glasses, spotting dimes or eating onions depending on the day?  Or do you think he can keep Bad Kenley at bay with enough rest between outings?

Dan Szymborski: Nothing wrong with that!

Adam: Giants add a bat at the deadline if they’re still in the Wild Card race?

Dan Szymborski: Quite possibly. I don’t expect them to be.

luke24mm: what stat best determines how good a teams bullpen is?

Dan Szymborski: That’s mostly philosophical, no?

Dan Szymborski: I like FIP better for relievers better than starters – larger ERA oddities and harder for a reliever to show long-term ability to beat FIP

Anonymous: How many crotch-burnings were “enough” crotch burnings?

Dan Szymborski: Like 3?

BettsBellingerCaruso: Kenley Jansen Cutter velo by game

Apr 7: 89.5 mph
Apr 10: 93.5 mph
Apr 14: 90.9 mph
Apr 16: 92.9 mph
Apr 19: 93.8 mph with 95 max with disgusting movement that he hasn’t hit since 2017

I honestly don’t get what to expect from him now

Coin flip Kenley

BarryBondsJuicedForOurSins: Should Twins fans be freaking out?

Dan Szymborski: Mild concern is warranted

lgm: noticed India’s production fell off after he got beaned 4/7. Do you think that could be part of it, or was he overperforming?

Dan Szymborski: It COULD be part of it, but the data are so scant that you can’t really say there’s anything there

Dan Szymborski: I don’t like how the Reds dealt with their infield this offseason

Guest: Who do you think finishes with more rest-of-career WAR, Kershaw or Scherzer?

Dan Szymborski: Kershaw.

Dan Szymborski: Three years of age for guys in their mid 30s is a big deal

Motown Oden: In yesterday’s chat, Kevin Goldstein said he thinks if Yuli Gurriel had a full MLB career, he’d be a lock for HoF. Have you ever run a ZIPS for him that would incorporate say ages 21-31?

Dan Szymborski: I haven’t, but it might be an interesting time machine

Big Mike: Are Kyle Tucker’s early-season struggles just a matter of his .135 babip, or is there something more sinister going on here?

Dan Szymborski: His xwOBA is .370. Don’t worry abou tit

Scott: I’m imagining Dr. Evil as the Orioles team doctor

The Chicken Runs at Midnight: Name a single player who you wish would be playing in today’s era rather than the era they did play in. For example, Nolan Ryan, imagine how many strikeouts could he rack up in todays game?

Dan Szymborski: Josh Gibson

brad penny for your thoughts: is matt carpenter cooked?

Dan Szymborski: I wouldn’t go that far, but there’s definitely some Maillard reaction going on

Marshall: Between Kershaw and Degrom, who do you reckon will finish with a lower career ERA?

Dan Szymborski: I’ll say Kershaw here

Chips: Lourdes Gurriel vs. Jed Lowrie ROS? Lowrie just looks so good, XWoba, etc., and Gurriel just isn’t hitting. Too reactive?

Dan Szymborski: I’d just be comfortable with Gurriel for injury reasons

Blue Morpho: Is it weird I want to see the Rockies draft Jack Leiter? That would be fascinating to see him try and best the altitude and Rockies’ pitcher development.

Dan Szymborski: But why wish that on someone?

Chris: Who are your five favorite classical composers?  Your five favorite conductors, dead or living?

Dan Szymborski: Mahler, Bruckner, Liszt, Beethoven, Mozart

Dan Szymborski: I do have a love of second-tier classical/romantic era composers like Hummel, but they don’t make the pantheon

Dan Szymborski: Alkan’s really close to making my list

Dan Szymborski: Conductors, Furtwängler, Bernstein, Reiner, Svetlanov, and just for his Haydn, Fey

Guest: Rule 5 draftee Garrett Whitlock was #77 ZiPS prospect this year, and unranked by Eric. He’s been excellent so far! Why do you think ZiPS liked him so much?

Dan Szymborski: Stats!

Dan Szymborski: (OK, that’s cheap)

Dan Szymborski: He did very well in ZiPS college translations

Dan Szymborski: (Which I only use when I hae to)

Motown Oden: Time machine! That’s what I couldn’t think of, thank you!

Dan Szymborski: I guess I should call it Time Warp, consistent with the branding

Dan Szymborski: It’s one of my favorite series and we DO have a tag for it

Dan Szymborski: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/category/zips-time-warp/

Dan Szymborski: Last five done: Fregosi, Pedroia, Colon trade, Conigliaro, Pujols

Dino Sawr: Chili- not a great car food

Robert: Is trout morphing into a three true outcomes hitter? He is mashing, but differently so far.

Dan Szymborski: I wouldn’t go THAT far yet, but the drop in his in-play rate is worth watching

Dan Szymborski: He’s actually being more aggressive at the plate, but missing more

Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure it’s meaningful right now

JoSchmo: Is Omar Narvaez now a Top 10 catcher?  Defense has improved significantly and his Statcast profile backs up his performance thus far. He was a good hitter before 2020’s disaster

Dan Szymborski: I think it quite possible

Dino Sawr: The cream jerseys that the Phillies wore yesterday should be their default home jersey

Dan Szymborski: Honestly, I’d love if the Phillies went back more towards maroon and powder blue as in the past

Dan Szymborski: I use that one when I make PHillies in WWE2K

Saddened Padres Fan: What’s your season win prediction for the Padres with Lamet, Tatis, and Morejon injuries + mediocre start + paddack not back to his 2019 self?

Dan Szymborski: It’s lower, in the 90s, but cvlearly behind Dodgers

Borscht: When do we see Wander Franco in MLB?

Dan Szymborski: I’ll say August

mtc: Since we’re doing classical music, who is baseball’s current Shostakovich? (really talented but stopped from doing what he does best by evil management)

Dan Szymborski: It was the O’s who bumped Machado to third because they had JJ Hardy

Dan Szymborski: We’ll see when he’s healthy, but it might be Brendan Rodgers

Dan Szymborski: or Kris Bryant thanks to service time

Dan Szymborski: You know, Harry Potter was based off Shostakovich

Dan Szymborski:

BringBackDeSpanielHair: Dodgers vs. Padres is marketing gold. MLB needs to bottle that stuff and ship it out! Playoff intensity in April is a glorious thing.

Dan Szymborski: The first series wa sa lot of fun

Angelus Novus: German Marquez for the Shostakovich question

Chris: I’m with you where Mahler, Mozart & Beethoven are concerned.  I’ve never been able to really get into Bruckner though I enjoy the Bruno Walter recordings.  I think Furtwangler is the greatest conductor, love Reiner, Bernstein with the NY Philharmonic but not Vienna.  How about 20th century music.  Do you like Shostakovich & Profofiev?  Berg or Schoenberg?  Copland or Ives?

Dan Szymborski: I love the neoclassicists. Lukewarm at best on serialists. And I love Ives and his off-kilter eclecticism

Dan Szymborski: Ives was a huge baseball fan

Dan Szymborski:

Dan Szymborski: https://bibliolore.org/2014/10/20/ives-and-baseball/

zurzles: As someone who knows nothing about the topic, what qualities do those conductors have that make them better than other conductors?

Dan Szymborski: Interpretations

Dan Szymborski: And it’ snot really objective. It’s the favorite ones for me.

Dan Szymborski: Like, for example, a lot of people don’t like Svetlanov, who I adored. He tended to take pieces nearly to the breaking point, but some people found his interpretations very coarse

Dan Szymborski: Whiel Furtwängler had a unbelievable sense of structure, especially in Bruckner/Beethoven and how it related to climaxes

B1G League Baseball: Who is better over the next 4 years: Vlad Jr. or Yordan Alvarez?

Dan Szymborski: I’ll say Vlad

mduff: Will Kiriloff be up to stay when recalled by the Twins?

Dan Szymborski: I hope so. I think he should be starting now

Enlightening Round: Votto in the three hole can’t be optimal anymore, what does it take Cincy to move him?

Dan Szymborski: Votto suggesting it

mtc: I’m fairly new to baseball (~2016) and think it’d be really cool to read a lot of current players’ prospect pedigrees. Where’s a good place to find old scouting reports on older guys like, say, Moustakas and Zach Wheeler and Randall Grichuk?

Dan Szymborski: really, old Baseball America/BP/FG archives

Dan Szymborski: find some of John Sickels old books

Dan Szymborski: You can find them on ebay

Dan Szymborski: https://www.ebay.com/itm/193831670102?_trkparms=aid%3D1110006%26algo%3…

King of K: Thoughts on Eugenio? He looks completely lost at the plate.

Dan Szymborski: Sorry

Jorge: I am looking for a way to get the previous night’s line for a watchlist of minor and major league players served to my inbox in an email. You know any way to get this? I used to have a service that did it but got discontinued

Dan Szymborski: I’m not familiar with one. Maybe one of the roto sites?

mduff: Are the Reds ready to hand the ball to Lucas Sims in the 9th?

Dan Szymborski: Unless it’s freezing rain!

Dan Szymborski: On that note, time to head out for another week!

Dan Szymborski: Thanks for joining me all. Hope to see you guys next time too!