Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 4/29/19

Dan Szymborski: Happy April!

Matt: My friends keep telling me to reach out to Don Szymbarski to ask about baseball, so here I am, Don. What are your opinions on baseball?

Dan Szymborski: Don can go spit on a sparkplug

Dan Szymborski: (that’s a reference to the TV-version-edited line from Barry Corbin in WarGames)

Canik: In your experience, how does minor league BABIP translate to major league BABIP? I figure that with less batter ball data, less shifting, and inferior fielders in general, it’s safe to shave off about 15 points (or more for pull-heavy guys)?

Dan Szymborski: I have a zBABIP that I use for minor leaguers, as expected it doesn’t translate cleanly

Dan Szymborski: Though players that are consistently high or low in the stat tend to remain so in the majors.

Dan Szymborski: There’s no magic (cut off 15%) line

Alcides Escobar’s Mother: Seriously I cracked a rib laughing at that suggestion he should still be playing baseball. Seriously Dan…do you take renters? I need him out of my basement.

Dan Szymborski: He’s hitting in AAA!

Dan Szymborski: Leading to some hilarious twitter shenanigans from people who think that Sanchez should be benched for Escobar

Guest: When an author leaves FG (Eno, Jeff, August, etc.) is necessary that all of their published material is purged from the FG archives? For instance, I can’t seem to find any Eno or August articles, yet Jeff’s content is still available…

Dan Szymborski: I sit? let me see

Dan Szymborski: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/author/sarris/

Dan Szymborski: I see all of Eno’s stuff

Dan Szymborski: And he’s still listed on the blog roll

Dan Szymborski: I think what you’re seeing is the need to try to trim the active author list somewhat as it was always using everyone

Dan Szymborski: I’ll bring this up as a problem in next meeting

goosed gossage: what do you think keston hiura’s eta will be this season? is moustakas’ play at 2b really going to be a barrier?

Dan Szymborski: I think he’ll be up in September.

bang bang whats the hang: What to make of Yu Darvish? In a ten teamer….

Dan Szymborski: Not in a ten teamer

LFC Mike : Good Monday Dan. Any suggestions for an injured hamstring occuring when trying to replicate the Geena Davis split from “A League of Their Own?” Asking for a friend.

Dan Szymborski: Don’t do that. Ever.

Jimmy: Dan, the C/K Davis’ have switched again.  Did I draft the wrong one?

Dan Szymborski: No.

Dan Szymborski: Khris Davis is still alpha davis

Dan Szymborski: well, alpha chris

Dan Szymborski: and Chris Davis’s revival isn’t enough to make him not be Krosh.

Zwak: Which would you prefer to see: a 30-hour game or a 10-team trade? Which is more likely to happen?

Dan Szymborski: ten team trade

Dan Szymborski: As long as dipoto is around it COULD happen!

Dan Szymborski: though a 30 hour game more likely

Philip: 2 questions: 1. Will a Zips prospect list be published? 2. Do the 3 year projections update with more stats or is the current version just staying the same as is? sorry for the poor wording

Dan Szymborski: Yeah, I’m going to do it around the draft this year and then go back to an earlier schedule next year

Dan Szymborski: I didn’t want to interfere with Eric and Kiley’s work, but it resulted in me pushing it too far

Dan Szymborski: and draft time is the next most logical time

Dan Szymborski: Nex ttime I’ll do it in December or something

Look Dude: What do you expect from Ohtani when he comes back?  Every day DH?  Part time?

Dan Szymborski: I think they’ll ease him back into the role

LFC Mike : Even though it is STILL April..Brendan Rodgers has vastly improved in AAA so far this year for Colorado. With McMahon looking to be the 2B for this year and Story/Arenado covering the left side of the field…how will the Rockies screw up this kid’s future by just being the Rockies?

Dan Szymborski: The Rockies fell into a trap and accidentally found the right place to play McMahon

Dan Szymborski: No idea what they eventually do with Rodgers at this point. Probably make him a first baseman given the Rockies

Zwak: If multiple umps needed to leave a game, what would happen? Is this the ideal scenario for robot umps to begin their takeover?

Dan Szymborski: I’m hoping robots take over with more violence.

dezre: What’s the ceiling for Darvish this season? Return to form? Ks are increasing and stuff looks good…though 6.62 FIP is alarming. Can we ignore early season bad luck and take heart in health, good FB velocity and nice swstr%?

Dan Szymborski: Well, that’s the CEILING, but he’s got a long way to go

Look Dude: Mallex Smith is a good hitter, right?  I mean, the man has the balls to wear a state of Florida statue around his neck playing in Seattle.

Dan Szymborski: I think he’ll be fine. I didn’t talk about him in my upcoming piece, but ZiPS doesn’t have his BABIP as being backed up by his data.

CubFan: What are your expectations for Vlad Jr ros?

Dan Szymborski: I think the projections are in the right zone.

Zwak: In the robot ump future, would you prefer either having no physical ump behind the plate or a literal robot ump?

Dan Szymborski: You still have to have a physical ump for things that aren’t strict ball/strike calls.

Dan Szymborski: Like check swing adjustment, though I’d like to see that taken over by robots one day too

Dan Szymborski: judgment, not adjustment

Dan Szymborski: But htat’s a harder feat than pitch loaction

goosed gossage: does it seem like carter kieboom will remain in the majors once trea turner and his health return? if so, what does a (nearly) full season carter kieboom look like?

Dan Szymborski: I think he’ll have a .730-.740ish OPS in the majors

Dan Szymborski: And he *coudl* stay up

Dan Szymborski: Dozier isn’t exactly making a great case for keeping his job

bang bang whats the hang: Tucker or Kieboom ROS? Or both need to be rostered (assuming every day ABs)

Dan Szymborski: Probably Kieboom. I think he has the easier obstacles to MLB playing time

Zwak: Favorite board game?

Dan Szymborski: Catan!

Dan Szymborski: I do have a soft spot for the really advanced Monopoly we played in college

Dan Szymborski: Three hour game, real money.

Dan Szymborski: You buy out the bank (we used divided by 10, so everyone started out with $150 in the game)

Dan Szymborski: After three hours, you keep your money and split what’s left in the bank evenly

Dan Szymborski: and our house rules allowed for very complex transactions, such as options contracts, rent waiver rules, etc.

Dan Szymborski: You could make loans securitized by housing, with interest collecting every pass of Go.

Dave: Its…  still April

Dan Szymborski: happy END of APril then

April is the Cruelest Month: Historically, are certain kinds of teams better able to outperform their Pythagorean win expectations? Do you think doing so is evidence of good on field management?

Dan Szymborski: I have not found a pattern. Even a Great Bullpen pattern

Dan Szymborski: Well, except of rthe one-game record pattern, but I’m pretty sure that’s not what you meant

ERodCal: You have stated Brandon Belt is not hurt by Oracle (fna AT&T) since he has better numbers there than on the road.  I don’t think that is the right metric to use, and believe the better analysis would use his xwOBA vs. his wOBA at home.  Also, is Belt’s trade value significantly diminished by his concussion history or just that most contending teams are set at first base?

Dan Szymborski: I did?

Dan Szymborski: That doesnt’ sound like me.

Dan Szymborski: In fact, I remind people a *lot* that generic home/road factors are far better predictor of a player’s future home/road split than their actual home/road splits.

Dan Szymborski: I wouldn’t object that with a healthy Ohtani, if the Angels released Pujols, made Bour a reserve, and picked up Belt, but that’s not going to happen.

Meow?: Requesting cat update asap

Dan Szymborski: Galileo is sleeping upstairs last I saw after I gave him some blue cheese.

Dan Szymborski: Mercutio was in here whining about something, but I don’t know what as he’s not particularly good at communication.

Dan Szymborski: Cassiopeia was looking for her hedgehog, which I hid so that I could chat in peace.

Dan Szymborski: Now she’s at the basement window chattering at a blue jay

goosed gossage: motion to establish nickname “Danny sims”

Dan Szymborski: I’ve already got the Digital Dandy

PE: Wondering what the Braves will do long term with the arm surplus. Will injuries/under-performance solve it? Trades? Or will they start moving guys like Gohara to the bullpen?

Dan Szymborski: Continue to sort through ’em and see where the surplus is.

Look Dude: Vlad Jr. got replaced for a pinch runner after hitting a double.  A healthy 20 year old 3rd baseman.  I saw someone somewhere before he got called up said the only thing he has to be concerned about was the MLB per diem for food.  So, that wasn’t a joke?  He looks like a thick dude.

Dan Szymborski: He’s not Chris Sale

Anonymous: What’s your favorite thing about Eugenio Suarez?

Dan Szymborski: At certain angles, he looks a bit like Mac from It’s Always Sunny.

Ryan: I don’t have a question, but want to apologize. Last week I asked a GoT related joke question, and didn’t see your response (requesting there not be any GoT spoilers) until after the chat had ended. Based on some questions/predictions posted in the chat the Monday after the season premiere, I had assumed you were watching them Sunday night as they came out. Sorry about that, and no GoT questions from now on!

Dan Szymborski: *I* watched on Sunday, but I don’t want to give spoilers to people that haven’t

Dan Szymborski: People avoid Twitter because of spoilers

Dan Szymborski: but they shouldn’t have to worry about a baseball chat spoiling GoT

Dan Szymborski: So I will only answer GoT things if they’re at *least* a week old.

Dan Szymborski: So talking about 0802 is fine, but not 0803!

Chad: Do you think Kluber gets back to himself or is he declining?

Dan Szymborski: I think he’s fine.

Joshua: Shall we play a game, Dan? How about Global Themo Nuclear War.

Dan Szymborski: Here’s the probably with David Lightman: Theaterwide Biotoxic and Chemical Warfare sounds like a much better game.

Dan Szymborski: fears of nuclear war were already kinda cliché at this point

Tucker: By what % should be sure certain Luke Voit is for real?

Dan Szymborski: 91.6515323254165432
05132541001240120132013201120330456544432013020320433540

isaacmeep: Is John Means real?  Or is he just a figment of my imagination designed by the government to make sure I continue to watch O’s games instead of doing anything productive like discovering the cure for cancer or something?

Dan Szymborski: I’m inclined to think no as I don’t think his repertoire is deep enough past just changing speeds really well.

Dan Szymborski: But the O’s are rebuilding and Means should get every opportunity to prove he can maintain this level.

Dan Szymborski: Rebuilding isn’t just about top prospects, it’s also about giving lesser lights chances that a contending team can’t afford to

Dan Szymborski: Now, I’m not saying that Means is anywhere near as good as Keuchel or Kluber, but rebuilds allow you to give guys like that that aren’t highly touted chances to succeed

Dan Szymborski: Which is why I HATE when rebuilding teams clog up their rotations with veteran inning eaters

Anonymous: Why do people say ‘There’s no such thing as a pitching prospect’?

Dan Szymborski: Old BP motto. It’s to remind people that pitching prospects have a high rate of implosion

Dan Szymborski: TINSTAAPP is baseball’s version of memento mori.

James: Have you had to adjust zips to compensate for the new ball in AAA? Those poor pitchers…

Dan Szymborski: Not really a prospect – the adjustment factors don’t assume a constant level of offense.

Dan Szymborski: Not really a *problem*

CubFan: Do you think Chavis is up for good? If so, what can we expect from him….15-20 HRs doable?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think for good, simply becuase of roster considerations.

Dan Szymborski: Essentially, Chavis staying up necessitates them giving up on *Pedroia*

Dan Szymborski: they could find a roster spot by giving up on Nunez, but they rightfully want Chavis playing full time

Mike: Rogers is the heir apparent to Ian Desmond in CF, a position he has never played.  #Rockies

Mike: More AB this year, Ty France or Luis Urias? (Assuming Padres move on from Kinsler)

Dan Szymborski: Urias

Matt: Dan, have you ever thought about opening a zamboni manufacturing plant? You could call your company SzymBalogna Zambonis. Naturally, the differentiator of your product is that it comes with a built in fresh sliced bologna dispenser. This would help to solve for what I assume to be the industry’s biggest problem of hungry zamboni operators.

Dan Szymborski: I don’t really like bologna.

Dan Szymborski: and I don’t know anything about Zambonis.

Dan Szymborski: I did have a dream recently that I invented a digital trombone

Dan Szymborski: you’d push buttons that control how far the slide goes

Dan Szymborski: and it had a built in accordion keyboard thing too

Dan Szymborski: but I don’t know what that did. It was a dream, so I didn’t get coherent specs

Matt: Bay-Bip, or Bah-Bip?

Dan Szymborski: I tend to read out the letters

Phil Diggety: Should I bench both Thor and Kluber? Both really killing me this year!

Dan Szymborski: No

Siri: Can you please explain Franmil Reyes? Great batted ball and plate discipline, but it’s not translating (other than the power).

Dan Szymborski: He had one of the big xwOBA vs. wOBA splits last I checked. I’m inclined towards optimism

Joe West, Umpire: I understand they are modelling the future robot umpires after me Szitburski. Take that! You know where to find my CD’s.

tan mom: why can’t his last name be kaboom?  all those lost home run puns…

Dan Szymborski: It’s still close enough to make hte puns

Dan Szymborski: I mean, puns aren’t perfect

MACC: Hi Dan.  Just a little confused.  I know the Rockies hate young guys and all.  And I get that Story will sign an extension at 29 to stay in town long past his prime, and that he and Arenado will be the left side forever.  But assuming that Rodgers will be blocked is to assume that McMahon is…  Good.  Is such a bold claim being made?  Just didn’t see McMahon as someone who is worthy of blocking anyone.

Dan Szymborski: If McMahon is good, he should block people.

Dan Szymborski: And if he’s not, the Rockies will play him because he gets older every year.

Artist formerly known as DL: Is Ohtani getting service time credit while on the IL? He seems to be more than ready to get back on the field but the team is really taking their time

Dan Szymborski: You get service time on the DL

Dan Szymborski: err IL

Dan Szymborski: I hate IL

Dan Szymborski: I understand moving on from “disabled” but make it the injureD List.

Dan Szymborski: because every time the yankees “send a player to the IL” I’m not sure if they’re injured or being optioned to Scranton.

Big Joe Mufferaw: I was listening to MLB on xm this weekend, and this analyst (not a caller) was saying that the Yankees are a better team with Austin Romine, why is there a misconception that Sanchez is a BAD defender, when he has a great, arm, is a good framer, and people completely ignore that the yankees throw extremely hard and the most breaking balls in the league (That leads to passed balls).

Dan Szymborski: Nichols Law of Catcher Defense

Matt W: Don’t look now, but the Mets are fervently laying the groundwork to demote Rosario and play Jed Lowrie at SS full time. This is an actual thing that is happening.

Dan Szymborski: In fairness, his defense has been kinda disappointing in the majors

Josh R: Do you find it odd that the Blue Jays have already pinch run for the 20 yo Vlad Jr twice and removed his bat from potential tie games?

Dan Szymborski: If he struggles at all, they have a ready made excuse to send him down and save super-two. Needs to work on his running!

Sun: How should Reyes Moronta mix his pitches?

Dan Szymborski: 97, 99, Holy Shit, changeup

Dan Szymborski: slider, holy shit+

Josh R: Does ZiPS care about league strength in its projections and if so is the AL still given a boost? It seems like the NL has finally passed the AL.

Dan Szymborski: I have the difference almost non-existent now

Ralph Rowdie: What are your levels of concern for Sale, Thor, Nola, and even deGrom?

Dan Szymborski: much, not so much, middling, nah

Magic Kingdome: First to make the playoffs again — Detroit or Seattle?

Dan Szymborski: Seattle

Magic Kingdome: Who will be the best player traded at the deadline this year?

Dan Szymborski: Bumgarner

santiagofish: Was gonna ask a Trout question but got too sad knowing he’ll always be an Angel and couldn’t finish the ques

G.O.A.T Milk: Drop one that you will not regret dropping…..Heaney, J. Nelson, Inciarte

Dan Szymborski: Inciarte. You’re not properly rewarded in fantasy for his defensive value

Ralph Rowdie: Vlad Jr is well on his way to being mistaken for the youngest member of the Fielder family.

Magic Kingdome: Game of the Thrones spoiler:  it was dark

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think it’s a spoiler to say that they spent a lot on stuff that nobody could see

Matt: Wait…GoT is only on the 3rd episode of the season? I was totally under the impression that last night was the finale. I have to deal with 5 more weeks this?…

Dan Szymborski: 3 more

Derek in Little Rock: I can confirm that Louis Linwood Voit III is a real person.

Chuck: Profar has been terrible, but he has a .169 BABIP. Do you expect him to turn it around?

Dan Szymborski: Yes

druidiful: Dan, I was worried there for a second. I saw “final chat of 2019” and thought you were leaving Fangraphs too!

Dan Szymborski: That would be quick!

Dan Szymborski: Lemme assure you guys, it would take a very unlikely series of events for me to leave voluntarily.

Dan Szymborski: I’ve never considered writing as some kind of “in” to working with a baseball team. If that’s what I wanted, I’ve had opportunities to do such.

Dan Szymborski: Yeah, I’ve always sold data (I can’t give advisory opinions), but I have very little interest working for a team full-time.

Dan Szymborski: I *enjoy* the writing/media side. The cereal *is* the prize.

LFC Mike: I know this is off topic..a rarity for a Dan chat..but is anyone else creeped out by the Dr.Pepper Brett Michaels mini-me character of “Lil Sweet”? He is worse than the big headed Burger King who really was just a peeping tom stalker  in disguise.

Matt: You, broke: The MiLB exists to cultivate talent and funnel it to the MLB.
Me, woke: The MiLB is a vast conspiracy to get people to buy more batteries.

BenZ: At this point are Keuchel and Kimberly definitely sitting out until after the draft?

Dan Szymborski: Dude, I the make-fun-of-a-dude-by-calling-him-a-girl’s-name is really played out!

Dan Szymborski: But I think it’s getting likely. It’s not long at this point.

BK : Seems like Canning could be a #2, am I optimistic, realistic or homer-tastic?

Dan Szymborski: I think he could be

CamdenWarehouse: What type of monster reads out the letters in BABIP?

Dan Szymborski: well, the words of the letters

Dan Szymborski: “batting average on balls in play”

Abomb: Is it true that Bo Bichette related to Boba Fett?

Dan Szymborski: Yes.

Matt: Is it bad that I chuckle every time i read/hear Ty Buttrey’s name?

Dan Szymborski: No, infantile chuckling is an important part of life.

Dan Szymborski: I still giggle that the Mariners had Charlie Furbush and Doug Fister

tb.25: April showers bring May Chili!

Dan Szymborski: DROUGHT NOW

Do You Wanna Build A Stroman?: Who is the next top prospect you want to see in the show?

Dan Szymborski: GET URIAS BACK UP

Matt: If someone were to offer you 1 free taco every day of the year (and they could be redeemed in groups so you didn’t need to eat tacos every day) but you had to leave FG. Is that one of these scenarios?

Dan Szymborski: Wait, you want to induce me to quite my job by giving me like $700 a year?

Dan Szymborski: quit

LFC Mike: SO a likely series of events would have you leave involuntarily? I feel worse about this potential situation this than the other…..

Dan Szymborski: dammit!

Anonymous: If Dick Lovelady ends the year with a 4.20 ERA in 69 IP, does the world end?

Dan Szymborski: The world was always going to end.

Dan Szymborski: RED GIANT PHASE

Matt: Cost =/= perceived value, Dan.

Dan Szymborski: But I can get a taco every day right now

ROBOCOP: I’m not seeing enough on fangraphs about Bellinger and his amazing April. Any deep dives into his torrid start headed our way?

Dan Szymborski: Not sure, but I’m sure someone will get into it

Dan Szymborski: He’s so good that I’m barely calling him his dad’s name anymore.

Dan Szymborski: It was a real problem for me in 2017, I think I called him Clay about 20% of the time.

Anonymous: tired of these cynical hollywood sequels just trying to cash in on my childhood nostalgia. ‘Vlad Jr.’ makes some sense, but ‘Fernando Tatis 2’ is just reaching

Dan Szymborski: “Come on, Hollywood, did we really need a sequel to Dwight Smith? And I didn’t even see the original Carl Edwards, was that some obscure Japan-only release?”

Dan Szymborski: “David was the weakest release in the Bell Cinematic Universe yet!”

Jason: What do we do with Votto and Bryant? Wait it out or sell for pennies on the dollar?

Dan Szymborski: Wait

Magic Kingdome: Now that Mike Trout has rescued the Angels, which MLB team has the worst all-time greatest player in team history?

Dan Szymborski: Marlins? All the good ones had short Marlins careers

Dan Szymborski: Stanton’s out before even his 20s were done, he won’t be considered a Marlin first, I don’t think

Dan Szymborski: 30 WAR is pretty short for a team leader

bombsquad rabbi: Russell to 2B when he gets back? Javy has earned SS, IMO

Dan Szymborski: I think so.

Cain Tlegally Drink: Sometimes I get excited about Jarred Kelenic in lowA only to realize Vladito is the same age and projected for 3wins in the majors as a mediocre fielding 3B.  Still excited about Kelenic, but, the scale is different.

Dan Szymborski: Yeah, it’s an unfair comparison to make!

Dan Szymborski: If you win the lottery, the second-best day that week just won’t compare

Dan Szymborski: ON TUESDAY I WON POWERBALL!!!!!!!!!!!!

Dan Szymborski: ON MONDAY I GOT A NICE COMPLIMENT FROM SOMEONE!!!!!!!!

Dan Szymborski: On that note, I have to go mow the lawn.

Dan Szymborski: So so long and fare thee well!

Sam: Would you rather have Mike Trout for the rest of his career or Ronald Acuna?

Dan Szymborski: Given their contracts, I think Acuna might actually be more valuable.

Dan Szymborski: As weird as that seems.

Dan Szymborski: You get a very sweet deal with Acuna