Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 5/12/22

Dan Szymborski: Good afternoon!

Dan Szymborski:

Jeff: What do we make of Semien? Same slow start as last year, or something else?

Dan Szymborski: I’m still on slow start.

Ryan: What language do you primarily code in? Does the answer depend on the project? I.e the ZIPS model vs. a random Thursday article research

Dan Szymborski: Depends. I’m not a coder, I’m a math guy who codes a little when he’s stuck doing. I use a combination of Excel with some statistical package third party add-ons and Visual Basic

John: What is the most unpleasant thing about your job?

Dan Szymborski: Every five years when a CBA ends, there’s a chance that you’ll suddenly be employed writing about something that doesn’t currently exist.

D: Dom Smith has a career 102 wRC+ and 0 war in 1300 career at bats time for the Mets to move on? JD should be getting his at bats n?

Dan Szymborski: I’m nearing that point, though he does has use as a role player

jfast: What are your reactions to Jeremy Pena’s start to his career? On pace for a 8.0 WAR season… Is he your pick for ROY?

Dan Szymborski: I thought he’d be decent, but not THIS good

Dan Szymborski: If the season ended today and I voted in the AL, he’d be my ROY in the AL

Dan Szymborski: Then some combo of Kwan and Ryan and J-Rod

Dan Szymborski: I’m in the Cincinnati chapter so I’m almost certainly going to only vote on NL awards

Dan Szymborski: Now, they can sometimes take people from other chapters if they don’t have enough people who want to vote in one

Dan Szymborski: But I would turn down that opportunity because there are way too many people who don’t get to vote much or ever and I get to vote most years.

Dan Szymborski: For example, Jay has *never* gotten to vote, which is bullshit.

Dan Szymborski: Him and Emma should move to Cincinnati!

Bo Callahan: Will Adley Rutschman struggle when he comes up?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think he will

Jed: Does ZiPS take strength of schedule into account? The most extreme example I can think of is Gleyber Torres in 2019 just raked against the Orioles – 279 wRC+. Maybe another way to think about it – would ZiPS expect a player to be better in say the NLC than the ALE just due to the unbalanced schedule based on the relative strength of the divisions?

Dan Szymborski: Yes, though very generally.

Dan Szymborski: It would be very PC intensive if I had to update everything every move teams made

BlueJayMatt: Can you just hold me and tell me that the Blue Jays will soon start hitting with RISP, please?

Dan Szymborski: Hitting itself is the skill

Liam: Is there a certain type of player that zips tends to over/under value?

Dan Szymborski: Sadly, no.

Dan Szymborski: This type of calibration is the easiest issue to wring out

Dan Szymborski: Unfortunately, player and team errors are not predictive of future errors for the same player and team. Or any characteristics that I have found

Dan Szymborski: Now, the ERROR range is larger for very young and very old players

Dan Szymborski: But as you probably note, that’s BIAS not ACCURACY

Justin: Any idea on when Zips 2023 and 2024 projections could be updated? Any change Steamer, or any other stat projections, could publish forecasted stats as well?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t update 2023/2024 in-season

Jim Leyland Palmer: Dan, is the Tiger’s season completely toast in mid May? Is there any hope for any meaningful baseball in 2022 for them? If not, what’s the best approach with this current group to regroup for 2023?

Dan Szymborski: Meaningful in playoffs? Probably not. But meaningful in getting better, there’s still a lot they can do.

Dan Szymborski: Take as much a future-centered approach as possible. If your choice is seeing what a 2023 option can do and what a 2022 option can do, take the former.

Kempin’ ain’t easy: Do you think the A’s will hold onto any of Montas, Murphy, and Laureano at the deadline?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think they’ll be quick to move the last two. Montas has to be gone at the deadline though

mr honk: whats for lunch

Dan Szymborski: I had a barbacoa burrito with very spicy salsa, white rice, and queso

Dan Szymborski: Oops, meant to save this for Lightning Round

Dan Szymborski: I’m saving the off-topic things for Lightning Round

Three finger brown: Hey Dan! Will oriole fans regret Rutschman finishing either first or second in ROY voting?  Or should oriole fans enjoy the moment and extra year of team control be damned ?

Dan Szymborski: He may be far enough behind in PT that he’s not first or second!

Dan Szymborski: I mean J-Rod’s probably just as good

Dan Szymborski: and Pena starts with a huge lead

Kempin’ ain’t easy: Shea Langeliers is crushing it at AAA. Is there any scenario where it could make sense for the A’s to carry both him and Murphy, splitting time at C/DH to keep their bats fresher than your average starting C? Or does that leave too much defensive value unrealized?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think so. Langeliers shoudl be playing full-time since, let’s be honest, 2022 doesn’t really matter much to the A’s

Dan Szymborski: I want young catchers to get as much time honing their craft as possible

Colton: Logan Gilbert or George Kirby over the next 5 years?

Dan Szymborski: Gotta be Gilbert

Reds Year: Do Hunter Greene’s fluctuations in velocity worry you at this point?

Dan Szymborski: Not at this point.

Dan Szymborski: He’s still adjusting to majors and, let’s be honest, hasn’t played much professional baseball

Golan Norman: What has surprised you most thus far in the 2022 season?

Dan Szymborski: The offense

Big Joey: Drop Cronenworth for Gleyber Torres?

Dan Szymborski: ONLY if he qualifies for SS in your league

Dan Szymborski: And, of course, you need a shortstop

Dan Szymborski:

mr honk: do you think Bieber finds his velocity again this year?

Dan Szymborski: I’m not super optimistic – he hasn’t been the same since the injury

Golan Norman: Do you think baseballs (and their properties like drag coefficient, seam height, etc) varied in past eras? Is this something we are only noticing because we have more information about batted balls?

Dan Szymborski: They likely did simply becuase of manufacturing technology

Dan Szymborski: But it’s a lot worse when it seems to vary because of MLB’s hapless management

Guest: Hi! I’m a novice in a league of 13 jaded pros. Meyer, Gorman, Pepiot, Kirby, Rutschman, and Rodriguez have all been snapped up. My question is this: which little known player would be good for me to grab and hopefully help me look like I know what on earth I’m doing? 🤭

Dan Szymborski: If you want a deeper dive? Michael Busch?

Andy: Who’s the Catcher in OAK by the end of the season?

Dan Szymborski: I think Murphy, but new team for him next year

Dan (other Dan): Is Stratton officially no longer part of a Committee in PIT?  Bednar stands alone, yes?

Dan Szymborski: I believe they’ll go just Bednar

Big Joey: Would you be shocked if Nestor Cortes finishes top 10 in the AL Cy Young voting?

Dan Szymborski: I would not be

Andy: O’Neil Cruz’s’z numbers look terrible. Is there anything to suggest he’ll be able to hit in the majors?

Dan Szymborski: Most of the rest of his career except for the one month in 2022?

ShoEyyyyyyyy: As a hitter, Ohtani has a 151wrc+ in May with an identical number of Walks and Strikeouts and a .291 BABIP. That is all.

barney gumble: hey Dan, why is it that league wRC+ is 97 or 98 for most seasons, instead of 100?

Dan Szymborski: Non-pitchers

Dan Szymborski: If you’re in the league stats in FanGraphs and see all those 96 and 97 numbers

Dan Szymborski: click “NP” for position

Dan Szymborski: and you’ll see

Josh: Level of concern for Chris Taylor?  He’s striking out at near a 40% clip!

Dan Szymborski: Significant because it’s bared with a BIG decline in contact rate

Teddy: Any tips/tricks/suggestions/warnings for someone moving to NYC later this year?

Dan Szymborski: I dunno, I’ve never lived in NYC!

Dan Szymborski: Oh, that should be Lightning Round

Dan Szymborski: I think you mean to ask Jay?

Dan Szymborski: I’ve lived in Baltimore, PA/MD border, and south of Dayton.

Dan Szymborski: Well, Towson, which isn’t relaly in Baltimore

Justin Upton: Anybody going to sign me?

Dan Szymborski: I wouldn’t be surprised to see Upton resurface in NPB at some point

RH: For geography and young children reasons the only MLB game I get to go to this year is BAL at CIN on July 30. How far out of first combined will they be by then?

Dan Szymborski: 50?

Uncle Spike: Who gets called up first for the Royals?  Pratto or Pasquantino?

Dan Szymborski: Should be Vinnie

Guest: I am stunned that Jeremy Pena, son of a major leaguer, was missed buy the college recruiters and ended up playing his college career at Maine of all places????

Dan Szymborski: It does seem odd, but I wasn’t really paying much attention to him as a prep so I can’t say. That may be a Q for Eric

Artwork: Is this your version of an NFT pump and dump?

Dan Szymborski: On Twitter, we were playing with the art neural network thing

Dan Szymborski:

Teddy: What percentile projection outcome would you say this version of JV was?

Dan Szymborski: 70? It’s not like projections hated him

FYI: Angels calling up AA prospect Chase Silseth – he’s pitched all of 31 minor league innings.

Horseface: Would you trade Tatis for Gausman and Max Meyer?  One year remaining to control Tatis

Dan Szymborski: I think I would simply becuase attendance counts in fantasy

Andy: After each win, are the Rockies players tearing articles of clothing off of a cardboard cutout if Charlie Montfort?

Dan Szymborski: Maybe they’re DRESSING a nude cardboard cutout of Monfort?

Insert Witty Name Here: How can we get baseball announcers to stop complaining all the time? I know there’s a lot to complain about, and I realize I’m complaining about complaining, but the announcers should make the game interesting! It’s bizarre how much I hear how the game sucks while the game is being played!

Dan Szymborski: Baseball is Very Serious Business so you have to be on the lookout if any players or fans are having fun and cut it off before it gets out of hand.

Dude: Who will have more WAR, rest of season: Byron Buxton or Taylor Ward?

Dan Szymborski: I’m gonna say Ward simply because I don’t want to be in a position of making even a no-cost bet on Buxton’s health

dom: The phillies: not great bob. Stars and scrubs MLB lineup is clearly not going to pull them into any kind of real playoff contention. Their farm system is a disaster. They have no real ability to develop players. Is there a path out of this? Or are they locked into a decade of disappointing baseball?

Dan Szymborski: They’re kind of in that mid-tier team with high payroll trap

Dan Szymborski: but they’re not as bad as their record

Dan Szymborski: I mean most of the team is playing fine

Choi1: Who, in international baseball, should be playing in MLB the most as of now?

Dan Szymborski: Toronto?

Dan Szymborski: I mean, they have 162 games on the schedule.

Guest: has kikuchi finally righted the ship?

Dan Szymborski: I sure as sugar hope so considering I put him in my breakout list! lol

Colton: Apparently the Padres are close to signing Cano to a big league deal. Any thoughts on that or how that could play out?

Dan Szymborski: They’ll see what he has, release him if it’s nothing

Reds Year: Re: Baseball announcers hating baseball. Going from tHom to John Sadak has been the best thing that has happened to the Reds in years

Guest: What’s the best A-Rod foible? The connect 4 tweet? The centaur painting?

Dan Szymborski: Gotta be centaur or odd/even leads

TayLORD: At what point do we start considering Ward to not just be a bit better than last year (111 wRC+) but an elite hitter? (140+ wRC+). Dude is mashing, and it isn’t empty – tons of walks.

Dan Szymborski: We’re gettingcloser!

James: If I had a nickel for every time a player struck out on a pitch that hit him yesterday – I’d have two nickels. Which isn’t a lot but it’s weird that it happened twice.

goat: So, Trout is obviously busting.

Dan Szymborski: Happy to be wrong about that one!

Bill: Does the dreadful start for the Red Sox mean a minor sell is likely at the deadline?

Dan Szymborski: Depends where they stand. They’re not toast yet, but the bread IS in the oven.

Mattingly: What do I do about my closer situation??

Dan Szymborski: I think I’d just basically split it between Bender and Scott depending on batters

mario (from the nintendo): Do you feel that Detroit is underperforming, or is this what they were ultimately destined for in 2022 (and that a lot of people pre-season were simply too optimistic)

Dan Szymborski: Underperforming

Armadillofury: Any hope for a Lux breakout? Plate discipline is good but he’s not really driving the ball

Dan Szymborski: If I kept the faith on Mazara for that long, I certainly can do it for Lux

Inaccessible Rail: Now that the Phillies are pretty much out of it and need to cut payroll, shouldn’t they salary dump Realmuto to the Mets? Mets seriously need a catcher upgrade.

Dan Szymborski: We STILL have them with playoff odds over one-in-three

Dan Szymborski: And remember, the greater the Mets season, the wackier the twist of fate that screws them over in August will be

Armadillofury: Have their been any articles or studies on player performance coming off PED suspensions?

Dan Szymborski: I’ve looked at this over and over again in a lot of ways and have found absolutely nothing meaningful yet

Dan Szymborski: Until I see *anything* convincing otherwise, I take PEDs as a player safety issue and a philosophical cheat — like corked bats — rather than something really altering

Mattingly: One more: So is Floro as the closer not happening any more??

Dan Szymborski: Not right now I don’t think – I think caution given his shoulder is warranted

M’s Fan: Jarred Kelenic: totally busted?

Dan Szymborski: I wouldn’t say that, but we’re going there

Dave: Does your system hate having to project a guy like Anthony Gose? Late career position change, and to a position that by definition doesn’t receive much playing time to establish a baseline for the player. The variance between the three projection systems on his page is the highest I’ve personally seen, especially for a guy in the majors. ROS ERA projections are 3.26 vs 4.62 vs 5.97.

Dan Szymborski: Absolutely!

Dan Szymborski: I’m more optimistic than ZiPS

mr honk: Is Kris Bryant openly feuding with the Monforts by next season’s trade deadline?

Dan Szymborski: It’s quite possible

David: Who would you sign to a large contract for the next three years if they were free agents: Mad Max, JV, or Kershaw?

Dan Szymborski: JV first

Dan Szymborski: I think he can be fine until he’s 45! lol

Matt: Is it too early to bet on McClanahan for AL cy young?

Dan Szymborski: No. And I’ve got a McClanahan piece int he works!

Jim: if you had to bet on it, do you think Bellinger ever goes back to all-star form?

Dan Szymborski: Sadly, no

glt4dc: I was just reading about the NHL’s emergency back-up goalie (EBUG) rule, in which the home team has to provide a back-up goalie (usually someone who played in college) available to both teams.  I wonder if there’s some position which this could be done for baseball…   https://www.nhl.com/news/ebug-emergency-backup-goalies-in-nhl/c-329248…

Big Joey: Are you worried about Max Muncy?

Dan Szymborski: Yes. Not sure his arm is quite right

Dan Szymborski: He’s becoming VERY passive at the plate, like he can’t trust himself to hit a fastball all of a sudden

David: What is the Mendoza Line this year, given that batting averages are so low?

Dan Szymborski: Given where BA was in late 70s compared to now, I’d say about .175

Choi1: Sorry – I meant which player not in the MLB right now!

Dan Szymborski: As you might guess, I want to see Roki Sasaki here as soon as possible!

Dirty Dan McGrew: If Judge wins a MVP, does he outearn the Yankees extentsion or did he make a big mistake on it?

Dan Szymborski: If he wins an MVP he might beat it

Joe: Margot or Winker the rest of the way?

Dan Szymborski: Winker in fantasy, possibly Margot in real life because D

Byrdette: do you think the Braves will move Spencer Strider into a starter role?

Dan Szymborski: I still think they try at some point

Dan Szymborski: he’s throwing multiple innings

Dan Szymborski: feels like an Earl Weaver Special

Big Joey: Should I trade Wander for Tucker and Albies in a league where you can keep players year to year at no cost?

Dan Szymborski: It feels wrong, but I think I’d do that

Big Joey: Should I be trying to sell high on Kershaw or ride him until he breaks?

Dan Szymborski: Always depends on how high you can sell

Chris: What is wrong with Nick Madrigal ?  Why can he not hit in 2022?

Dan Szymborski: Because freakly low BABIPs are common in small sample sizes

Dan Szymborski: We’ve finished a month now, but small sample size is STILL a thing

pardon me, do you have any grey poupon?: Is DeJong DeToast?

Dan Szymborski: I’m still slightly bullish

Bighen: I liked both signings but Canha and Escobar seem like depth at this point albeit at very high salaries for 4th OF and 5tg

Dan Szymborski: I dont’ think either were signed to be top-tier talent

bosoxforlife: Every year a few more pitchers throw 97+ and every year the offense drops some more. Is there any solution that doesn’t include increasing the distance between the mound and the plate?

Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure

Dan Szymborski: Especially when it’s a solution that also doesn’t risk increasing pitcher injuries

T(win)s: It’s mid-May, large enough sample size to say what we know about teams?  We know Reds are bad, Dodgers are good.  Do we know the Twins pitching is good?  The White Sox aren’t as good as expected?  The Angels will make playoffs?

Dan Szymborski: We know SOME things

Dan Szymborski: It depends on exactly what your’e saying

Please, really??: The notion that Jeremy Pena is actually playing at an 8 WAR pace is: A), an indictment of WAR; B), an indictment of the defensive measurement part of WAR; C), sorry, no C. It’s either A) or B).  (it’s B)

Dan Szymborski: He’s +3 in OAA

Dan Szymborski: He’s a shortstop with a 144 wrC+. What SHOULD his WAR be at?

Big Joey: RE: Drop Cronenworth for Torres. Torres is 2nd/SS in my league, I have Cronenworth (1st, 2nd, SS) at 2nd base currently. You don’t like Torres at 2nd base?

Dan Szymborski: Actually a brain fart – it compeltely slipped my mind that Cronenworth filled in a lot at SS in 2021, not 2020

Guest: Is Naylor a good long term prospect? He keeps getting dropped in our league.

Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure I’d go that far

Big Joey: RE: Dropping Cornenworth for Torres. Would you prefer to drop Connor Joe instead of Cronenworth?

Dan Szymborski: I think I would

Grant: Trying to improve my own player evaluation skills (ie, figuring out if a guy is performing above/below expectations)… Any particular stats, systems, or resources you could point me in the direction of to help?

Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure I really have a SPECIFIC thing to do. I’d just take a general approach of reading as much as you can and consuming every thing you see

CWess: Do you think the pitch clock would have some positive effect on offense? Forcing pitchers that would otherwise take 40+ seconds between max-effort pitches to speed up their pace might mean quicker fatigue and not maintaining their stuff?

Dan Szymborski: It’s possible, but would have to research the testing

DRS Deficiency: Does the Phillies usage of Bryson Stott make any sense? He made the opening day roster, barely played, got sent down, and was quickly brought back up. Oh and he’s still not hitting.

Dan Szymborski: Yeah, it’s kind of odd. I think I’d let him just beat up on AAA hitters for a couple months

Dan Szymborski: err pitcersh

Dan Szymborski: OK, 1:00

Dan Szymborski: so time for the Lightning Round!

Dan Szymborski: The rules for the Lightning Round are simple: I have to answer EVERYTHING that’s not baseball except for a few topics I can turn down (excessively personal, work-related, politics)

What it shouldn’t be at: He’s a shortstop with a .816 OPS, .321 OBA. Any defensive adjustment which adjusts that upward to ‘Mike Trout!’ is a bad, laughable defensive adjustment.

Dan Szymborski: It’ s a 144 wRC+ in 2022

Dan Szymborski: The defensive adjustment is 3 runs

Kempin’ ain’t easy: Excited for the new Kendrick Lamar album tonight?

Dan Szymborski: Not really my genre

Guest: What book would you recommend for someone wanting to learn more about geoism?

Dan Szymborski: The general concept is best from the source – Henry George’s Progress and Poverty

mr honk: what are your ideal hot dog toppings

Dan Szymborski: If I had to choose one, Kraut and spicy mustard

Dan Szymborski: well, one combo

Old Country Buffet: Have you tried the lasagna? It’s my favorite.

Dan Szymborski: I’ve only better there once and I dont’ think I tried lasagna

dom: who on fangraphs staff would win a hot dog eating contest?

Dan Szymborski: Me maybe?

dom: what is your favorite place to go unwind/unplug (either for a minute or a month or whatever inbetween)?

Dan Szymborski: Used to be Maine when I was on the east coast. Now I’ll either go chill at the arboretum near me or rent a small place at Lake Cumberland

Golan Norman: What regional food would you bring to southern ohio/nothern kentucky? Like imagine you could kidnap texas brisket

Dan Szymborski: pit beef because I’m from baltimore

Dan Szymborski: (not crabs because freshness!)

dom: ok how many dogs would you choke down in 5 minutes?

Dan Szymborski: I dunno. I’d have to eat them normally

Armadillofury: Which style of BBQ is the best?

Dan Szymborski: Eastern NC

Giant Gonzales: Did you laugh at Elon’s maidenless Elden Ring build?

Dan Szymborski: I didn’t see that!

Nate: So true or false…Pena is a top 10 SS in baseball by the end of the year? Top 5 in the next 2-3 years? It’s amazing how far under the radar he seems to have flown on prospect rankings the last year or two (Eric being a notable exception there)…because I’m not sure what isn’t to love about his profile now

Dan Szymborski: Oops, baseball. Probalby not

Morbo: Armadillo fury, that’s a trick question. All BBQ is delicious

Joe: Elden Ring: more or less overrated than BOTW? Similarly, why are both of those games so highly rated?

Dan Szymborski: Haven’t spent enough time playing that

Dan Szymborski: Either really

mr honk: do you follow cricket

Dan Szymborski: I do not

Liz: do you have a favorite writing implement? (any specific pen, etc)

Dan Szymborski:

Dan Szymborski: I very rarely nee dto use a pen for anything. My handwriting has gotten even worse

Giant Gonzales:

Matt K: what is degree in?

Dan Szymborski: I keep the house at about 68 in the winter and then 72 during the summer. I can not live without a/c and that recommendation “Hey, keep your house at 80 during the summer!” is not what I am going to do!

Morbo: Dan, do you have advice to help me cope with the existential dread that’s been slowly consuming my mind?

Dan Szymborski: Mild amounts of alcohol

Morbo: Also where can I get a fangraphs spacebar?

Dan Szymborski: I’ll find the link. Think maxkeyboard made it for me

Dan Szymborski: And on that note, time for me to head out for another week. Talk to you all next time!