Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 5/26/22

Dan Szymborski: Welcome to THUNDER CHAT

Dan Szymborski: OK, just regular chat, but adding Thunder to things always makes them more exciting

Old Hoss Radbourn: I know xStats are flawed (even more so this year because of the change in offensive environment), but they’re showing Abraham Toro getting insanely unlucky.  Is there some bad luck masking a real breakout here?

Dan Szymborski: I think ther’es some bad luck

Dan Szymborski: xStat stuff is having *calibration* problems, but it should be an issue of *bias* more than accuracy really

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS stats are more predictive (with slightly differing methodology) and is similarly overexpecting results

Dan Szymborski: (I’m saving off-topic ones)

Old Hoss Radbourn: There have been reports in the past of prospects struggling at AAA because they were “bored”.  I always found this to be a pretty unconvincing excuse.  However, there have been reports that Oneil Cruz maybe isn’t bored, but is kind of annoyed with the Pirates and pissed off that he got sent down after blowing up spring training.  Ignoring for a second whether or not he should have been on the opening day roster, is there any evidence that this kind of dissatisfaction affects player performance?  I would have to think there is some correlation there, right?  Most people perform better at their jobs if they are happy.  Is this something teams think about at all when considering roster decisions?  Seems kind of counterproductive to piss off your best young players (not that every young player should make the team every year, but I think you see what I’m getting at).

Dan Szymborski: It’s one of those things that are probably out there in the aether, but *really* hard to pin down in a scientific manner.

Dan Szymborski: For example testing the hypothesis that players struggle when bored or struggled when pissed.

Dan Szymborski: If something is intangible, then you don’t know magnitude *or* direction really

Dan Szymborski: Because a pissed off player could be discouraged

Dan Szymborski: OR a pissed off player could be motivated to THATLL SHOW EM

Dan Szymborski: I know I’ve done some of my best work when I’ve been pissed off or discouraged

Mr. Redlegs: Is Brandon Drury a legit MLB starter now?

Dan Szymborski: I’m not quite there, but he’s making a case

Dan Szymborski: It’s not the CRAZIEST thing. He was always fringey, but it’s not like he was a 150/250/250 projection guy

The Great Giambino: I’m roadtripping to Cincinnati tomorrow for the game, and I’m going to have the best chili in the world when I’m there. Read it and weep

Dan Szymborski: Oh, is there a place that serves a nice bowl of Texas red?

Dan Szymborski: Oh wait, that was off topic!

Last Days of Dayton Moore: Are any of the pitchers currently in the Royals’ organization an above average MLB starter in 2023?

Dan Szymborski: That comes down to whether you’re a believe in eternalism or presentism

Dan Szymborski: For instance, Einstein subscribed to the block universe theory. If you do, Brad Keller *might* be an above average starter in 2023.

Dan Szymborski: But otherwise, there is no KC royals or baseball in 2023 because the future does not yet exist

Dan Szymborski: (people who believe in a growing block universe would also believe this, though they do believe that the past still currently exists)

Erik: Can you think of any other players with a similar early-career trajectory to MacKenzie Gore? Elite prospect > awful final minor-league season > looking like everything he was ever supposed to be as a rookie can’t be a common path.

Dan Szymborski: Halladay sorta?

Dan Szymborski: Pitchers have weird trajectories

Dan Szymborski: But his struggles were MLB really

Dan Szymborski: so not quite the same thing

Oyster Burns: after all the hand wringing is ikf a good fit on the yanks?

Dan Szymborski: Good? No, but sort of acceptable if you’re not signing Correa or Story and adamant about blocking a prospect even temporarily

Liz: I found Szymborski in the name audio list of MLB the Show this morning. What’s your go-to game mode or player type in baseball video games?

Dan Szymborski: I like Road to the Show in MLB the Show

Dan Szymborski: Franchise in Madden

Dan Szymborski: I usually create Dan Szymborski in MLB the Show

Dan Szymborski: and make the dude look sort of me, doughiness and all

Dan Szymborski:

Dan Szymborski: It’s been a good decade so far for Szymborski surname awareness. Added to The Show and there’s now a Dan Szymborski in the Young and the Restless universe.

Dan Szymborski:

Bandon Brelt: What’s been up with Michael King recently? He’s really fallen off a cliff

Dan Szymborski: As I say all the time, we get too excited when things are good and too down when things are not!

Roberto Beers: A Dan, A Chat, Where are his cats? stacsiheraerehWtahCAnaDA

Todd Bonzalez: Are you at all bothered by how Rutschman and his doo bear a striking resemblance to French-Fry Dan?

Dan Szymborski: Not at all. Thank goodness for the Orioles that his physique doesn’t bear a striking resemblance

Romorr: How great is it to finally see Adley Rutschman? Will this bitter rebuild melt your cold heart when Rodriguez is throwing to Adley for the first time?

Dan Szymborski: It’s amazing!

Dan Szymborski: I will be excited

Guest: Loved the article on Apple tv+ probabilities – I think the thing that initially bothered me the most is the implied precision of using hundredths of a percentage point. As a numbers person, I’d love to have seen a quantified uncertainty using some sort of Bayesian inference… maybe that’s not for the mainstream audience though

Dan Szymborski: Ben does great work! He was a terrific get for us and as I told another staff member, I couldn’t have done better than Ben’s approach myself

Todd Bonzalez: Ever consider adding a roller coaster feature to ZiPS?

Dan Szymborski: I’m not good at predicting roller coasters. If you ever played Rollercoaster Tycoon games, I always made people barf a lot

Pad: What’s going on with Cronenworth? He just looks overmatched this season. The new ball (all his power was pull side)? Has he been figured out? What?

Dan Szymborski: I think he’ll be fine in the end

Romorr: Mariners and Tigers were both suppose to be coming out of their rebuild, especially with the trades and FA signings. What do you make of their paths going forward? Tigers seem to be in a bit more trouble, right?

Dan Szymborski: They’ve both had snags, but I dont’ think anything fundamental has changed about their long term outlook

Tacoby Bellsbury: With sportswriters, how far into the season do you have to be before you can tell the difference between a hot streak and improved baseline talent? Ben Clemens has been masterful of late — I think I’ve forwarded along each of his past three articles.

Guest: Dan, have you ever attended an 1860s-era vintage base ball game? There are lots of teams in the Cincinnati-Dayton-Columbus area. It’s a lot of fun to experience the game of 150+ years ago.

Dan Szymborski: I have not been to one!

Matt VW: First base has been a production sink hole for the Red Sox. Do you think they call Casas up pre-All Star break or are there things they think he still needs to figure out at AAA?

Dan Szymborski: I think Bobby Dalbec is about out of rope. He was already mostly exiled to platoon status a few weeks ago

Dan Szymborski: I think WHAT the red sox do depends on how they feel about the race.

Dan Szymborski: Casas has been fine, but he’s not really MURDERING the ball or anything. Remember, AAA did not have a big dropoff in offense

John: Robbie Ray is getting an insane amount of swinging strikes and besides his LOB% – everything else seems to check out mostly the same as last year – is this just the LOB% regression-monster catching up to him? Or is there something else going on?

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS for one doe snot know why his K rate has dropped off

Dan Szymborski: There will be more than that after about the 54-game border as I’l do a zStats post or two

Last week: Just venting.  IMO, both MLB and MLBPA are chicken stew not to have resolved the manipulation of MiLB to be MLB contracts.

Dan Szymborski: The problem is that owners have a natural structural advantage over players

Dan Szymborski: Owners can wait a year and it would hurt, but they’d still be owners.

Dan Szymborski: That’s not true for all players

Ralph Terry: Have issues in xStats made it seem like pitchers should be doing better? xFIP is a normalized HR/9, right? Shouldn’t HR/9 be even lower now that the ball has been deadened?

Dan Szymborski: xFIP uses league average HR/FB

Dan Szymborski: So in that way it should be self correcting

Dan Szymborski: But obviously, you always have the same limitations

Dan Szymborski: xFIP is designed to be basic and naive

Elias: If you’re me which current starter(s) do you ship at the deadline?

Dan Szymborski: Ship as in trade or ship as in writing fan service making them romantic partners?

Dan Szymborski: Like Bartolo Colon x Chris Sale

Dan Szymborski: I’m going to assume trades

Dan Szymborski: I expect Montas is moved for sure

Dan Szymborski: Greinke probably not because I think Greinke wanted specifically to play in KC and he’s enough of an iconoclast that I could see him just retiring rather than accept a trade

Dan Szymborski: If PIneda’s healthy I can see him moving

Dan Szymborski: Luis Castillo and Tyler Mahle candidates

Dan Szymborski: And Martin Perez

Ben: With the dramatic decrease in SP innings, will we ever have another 10 WAR season from a pitcher? It hasn’t been done since 250 innings of peak Big Unit in 2001. (Or 229 innings of peak Greinke in 2009 by bWAR)

Dan Szymborski: Under current pitcher usage, I don’t believe so.

Dan Szymborski: Since I still have ZiPS open to Zac Gallen, let me give you ane xample

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS projects 136 innings from Gallen in 2023.

Dan Szymborski: If I tell ZiPS that he throws 136 shutout innings, his WAR is *still* only 7.9

Dan Szymborski: Now, there will be guys who throw enough innings to theoretically get to 10

Dan Szymborski: but you’re already reducing the possibilities of something very rare

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS is expecting a 2023 that’s a mix of 2019-2022, with 2022 weighted most heavily

Dan Szymborski: To achieve 10 WAR in the projected 2023 ARI environment (replacement starter 5.52 ERA), I get a 0.77 ERA required

Dan Szymborski: Now, some may object to ERA

Dan Szymborski: but ERA works better for WAR in projections than in past performance

Dan Szymborski: since ERA projections are strongly FIP influenced already

Stevie: Do you see Pasquantino getting the call-up soon? He is killing it in Triple A and Santana is batting @.150

Dan Szymborski: Most teams I would, but the Royals are weird

B’Ryce Hammer’s Luscious Locks: Will you whisper sweet nothings to us about Julio Rodriguez?

Dan Szymborski: Hey, ZiPS projected him as #6 in rest-of-career WAR among htiters coming into the season, so I’m totally incentivized towards wanting him to be awesome!

Brownpants: Should we be Worried About Winker? I don’t know what to make of him. Suddenly solid against LHP and bad against RHP

Dan Szymborski: I think you should be

Dan Szymborski: The humidifiered balls have had weird effects on a lot of offense-first guys

Hunter Jesus: #freeVinnieP

Enlightening Round: Do you think the Cardinals will go after Montas now? They need the rotation help ASAP

Dan Szymborski: I think that would be a good idea, though I don’t have any window on their current thinking

Morbo: Am I late again?

Dan Szymborski: Depends when you got here

Enlightening Round: Dan, what is really going on when a team like Minnesota doesn’t keep a guy like Royce Lewis around?  He is a clear upgrade to their roster

Dan Szymborski: We talked about it last week – Twins have some awkward roster configuration issues

Dan Szymborski: Which left Lewis to play full time as the more practical option if you’re not willing to reduce the pitching staff by one

dabraves: what kind of contract could Dansby see this offseason?

Dan Szymborski: a contract to play baseball of one of Major League Baseball’s franchises, naturally!

Dan Szymborski: (Sorry, I’m filibustering while I open hitter ZiPS)

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS suggests 5/88

Eric the Red: In 1997 Roger Clemens put up 12 WAR and Randy Johnson put up 8 WAR.

Oddball Herrera: I have a feeling the Twins’ “awkward roster configuration issues” will be resolved with another week or so of Jose Miranda hitting < .150

Dan Szymborski: Yes

Greg: Will Terrance Mann outlive Ray Kinsella and get the Hellfish treasure now that he has outlasted Shoeless Joe?

Eric the Red: 1997 continued: what the hell was in the water that got Randy Meyers a first place Cy Young vote?

Dan Szymborski: CLOSER STUFF

Liz: Is the Phillies’ all-bats-no-defense strategy viable, or is it just hilarious

Dan Szymborski: I think the Bryce Harper elbow thing has had a few unfortunate dominos

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think they expected to regularly having Schwarber AND Castellanos in the OF

Last Days of Dayton Moore: If the Rays and Royals changed front offices tomorrow, how long would it take for the Royals to be good again?

Dan Szymborski: 3 years

Guest: I’ve always been confused by the highly elevated swinging strike rates listed for Rookie/Complex ball.  Is this measured differently at those levels? or do players in those leagues actually swing and miss that often? (e.g. Bryan Rocchio 2018, 21.4% SwStr with only a 12.6% K rate, or Anthony Vargas 2019, 26% SwStr with only a 13.6% K rate).

What does Zips think about lower minors swinging strike rates?

Dan Szymborski: Guys are incentivized to swing a lot in the minors and pitchers just aren’t as good at whiffing guys

Ned Flanders: Do you have a method for converting pitcher projections to full time roles? I’d like to know how zips would project Kopech as a full time starter. Current ros is 25 G, 9 GS.

Dan Szymborski: I do, but it’s not set for in-season

Dan Szymborski: But I can give you the starter only preseason one

Guest: Martin Perez eh?

Dan Szymborski: Wait, was he injured this morning or something?

Morbo: Is it possible for say a tip 10 prospect to make it known that they will not sign a contract under any circumstances if they were drafted by say the Pirates, and will instead play abroad and/or reenter the draft at a later date? What would be the consequences of doing something like that

Dan Szymborski: Carter Steward kind of did that

Dan Szymborski: Stewart

Dan Szymborski: Once you play in Japan though, you are subject to the MLB/NPB rules

ironcurtin: Can things get any worse for the Mariners?

Dan Szymborski: it can always get worse

Oddball Herrera: I am so not falling for the Martin Perez thing – he pulled this exact trick with the Twins to kick off 2019 and look at where his ERA ended up

Dan Szymborski: Hey, I didn’t say he was guaranteed to be amazing

Dan Szymborski: I was fooled too in 2019 – his cutter was rocking that year

Dan Szymborski: Or was that 2018?

Dan Szymborski: But I think he’ll be traded

Dan Szymborski: Rangers aren’t likely to be in playoff race at deadline and he’s a FA

Morbo: Followup: how long would it take the royals front office to make the Ray’s terrible?

Dan Szymborski: I’ll say 3 years

Last Days of Dayton Moore: Which MLB player would be the most effective pitchman in getting you to try a food you would ordinarily not eat?

Dan Szymborski: Bartolo COlon

SJ: What are we listening to today?

Dan Szymborski: (This is the offtopic portion – I don’t have a ton of time, so no formal Lightning Round, but here’s where to ask off topic stuff)

Dan Szymborski: I’ve been working my way through the Rubinsky set of Villa-Lobos piano music on Naxos

Dan Szymborski: And earlier I was listening to a Falcom playlist because I was on a jag since I’ve been playing Hajimari no Kiseki

Morbo: Gun to your head you have to choose between Dick Monfort and Bob Nutting owning your favorite MLB team. Who do you choose?

Dan Szymborski: Monfort

Guest: Beatles or Stones?

Dan Szymborski: Beatles

Dan Szymborski: In truth, I listen to Kinks more than either

Liz: What is your ideal indoor air temperature

Dan Szymborski: 68

Guest: Brat or dog?

Dan Szymborski: Brat

Planet Dust: Any thoughts on the “jhana” states of meditative absorption? They seem kinda cool but also kind of fictitious?

Dan Szymborski: I do not have any thoughts as I do not know anything about the subject!

Hunter Jesus: Favorite flavor of Mountain Dew?

Dan Szymborski: Hold the syrup

Seamus: Favorite movie you’ve seen lately?

Dan Szymborski: The Death of Stalin

Guest: Shake or sundae?

Dan Szymborski: Shake easily

Beaver time: How much wood would Yankee fans get if Waldichuck did chuck his fastballs at Yankee stadium soon?

Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure it elicits a direct sexual response

Morbo: Coca-Cola with or without cocaine?

Dan Szymborski: Without. I’ll be 44 next month so I’m heading into ages where heart disease is always a concern, so I do not want to be taking cocaine.

don: Harry Potter or LOTR?

Dan Szymborski: LOTR

Dan Szymborski: BUT

Dan Szymborski: I did have a few fun neural networks

Dan Szymborski: Computer-generated Hogwarts professors

Dan Szymborski:

Dan Szymborski:

Dan Szymborski: Computer-generated future books

Dan Szymborski:

Dan Szymborski: And every MLB manager given a job at Hogwarts

Dan Szymborski:

Oddball Herrera: Anyone who answers Harry Potter to that question shall be consigned to the lion pit for heresy

John Thacker: What translation are you using to play “Hajimari no Kiseki”, or is your Japanese that good?

Dan Szymborski: There’s a translation patch (you can find it in falcom reddit) for the Steam version

Dan Szymborski: I played Cold Steel IV originally on Japanese release for PS4 using spreadsheet

Dan Szymborski: The translation patch is quite good. Even like 90% of NPCs are translated

Dan Szymborski: including all the item names and descriptions

Dan Szymborski: I got CS IV right at the start of COVID when we didn’t know much about fatality rate. I figured I’d hedge my bets and get closure on that arc.

Ross: Pineapple on pizza: Yay or Nay?

Dan Szymborski: Yay, in moderation

Last Days of Dayton Moore: Which Harry Potter class would you teach (of the known Harry Potter classes, not “Math”)?

Dan Szymborski: Is there some magic music class?

Insert Witty Name Here: Re: jhana- meditate and find out for yourself.  Once you quiet your mind enough you’ll get the answer you seek.

614: If MLB made a 90’s style Saturday morning cartoon starring players as crime-fighting dogs-men, who would be the three players and what would their dog-ish names be (par example, Wander Frenchie)?

Dan Szymborski: Aaron Judge as a great dane named Judge Crimehold

Dan Szymborski: Mike Trout

Dan Szymborski: and I guess you need a pitcher

Dan Szymborski: I don’t know the dog names

Dan Szymborski: I need more time for that one lol

Appa Yip Yip: LoTR is very boring you should all be reading Malazan Book of the Fallen.

Hot Gabbagool: PROFESSOR OF BIC PENS AND CONDOMS IM DYING

The Great Giambino: Bacon-wrapped frozen Oreos, you gotta try them before you say they’re bad

Guest: Best actor character match in MCU?

Dan Szymborski: One of their first and most famous: Downey/Iron Man

Ned Flanders: Frenchie Cordero obv

Insert Witty Name Here: Also re: jhana since my answer was a bit cryptic, it’s not fiction.  But it does take a lot of practice.  Your mind it like a muscle, keep working it and it’ll strengthen, if you stop, it’ll atrophy.

Some Guy: Shohei Ohtani as a Shiba Inu.

Greg: Verlander would seem a good choice for the dog show except that he  is older than Trout and Judge

Dan Szymborski: You have to have an older dog who is gruff but with a warm exterior

Dan Szymborski: And you need a crotchety old dog who is in command authority but nobody likes, so some dog TLR

614: Max Schitzu

Last Days of Dayton Moore: Worst MCU character/actor match?

Dan Szymborski: I did not like Vinnie Jones Juggernaut

Guest: crime dog mccutch

Some Guy: Max Scherzer is a super strong and pissed-off Chihuahua and you can’t convince me otherwise.

Seamus: What position does RTTS Dan play?

Dan Szymborski: Usually pitcher or second base because that’s what I did as a teenager

Dan Szymborski: Naturally, the MLB the Show version is a lot better than I was

Dan Szymborski: or it would make the game kinda boring

Greg: That is actually a good point. Verlander would work as the unnamed “leader”. Scherzer could be this guy as well. Or Wainwright. Lots of old dog types sticking around in rotations

Guest: Press your luck or jokers wild?

Dan Szymborski: Press your luck!

Dan Szymborski: NO WHAMMY NO WHAMMY STOP

Cars Aren’t Real: If Mike Trout is the baseball equivalent of an F1 car, who is the baseball equivalent of a used 2003 Honda Civic?

Dan Szymborski: Joe Smith

Dan Szymborski: he’s been around forever, he’s generally dependable, but you never really get EXCITED to see him.

Dan Szymborski: Joe Smith is the Setup Daily Driver

Dan Szymborski: Eric Hosmer is the 2010 BMW

Dan Szymborski: Yeah, he was fine the first six years when he was under warranty, but he got way too expensive for the occasional thrills and the team is having trouble giving him away without taking a massive hit in the resale price

Hot Gabbagool: RIP Ray Liotta…that is all

Dan Szymborski: Wait, what?

Dan Szymborski: Oh crap!

Dan Szymborski: https://www.nydailynews.com/news/national/ny-ray-liotta-dead-goodfella…

Oddball Herrera: Martin Perez is your mom’s old minivan that you have to drive because you need a car, but isn’t close to what you were thinking when you asked for one 😉

Dan Szymborski: Kinda like my friend Dan who had to borrow his parents Nissan Quest before they let him have the Prelude

Dan Szymborski: I drove a Ford Tempo for *10 years*

Last Days of Dayton Moore: My dad had a coworker who won something like 9 straight on Jokers Wild. He quit and moved to Hollywood thinking he could cash in on his fame but was never heard from again.

mr. belvedere fan club: familiar with that guy who swindled Press Your Luck by memorizing the light sequence?

Dan Szymborski: I am!

Hunter Jesus: is a steam deck worth it?

Dan Szymborski: I haven’t personally used it, but it’s very good money for the specs

Morbo: Chicken, bacon, jalapeno, and pineapple pizza is amazing.

CeddyBReady: I was gonna chat, but now I’m shook. Why do all the weird ones die young!

Dan Szymborski: On that note, Dan  needs to go.

Dan Szymborski: I’ll see you all next time, hoepfully!