Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 6/10/2019

Dan Szymborski: The prophecy of the chat has been fulfilled.

Roberto: Brandon Lowe has been fun to watch, but there must be some regression on the way, right? What’s a realistic expectation for his ROS?

Dan Szymborski: I actually had a dream about Brandon Lowe the other night that had no extra base hits and I decided to model ISO by BMI out of curiosity

Dan Szymborski: But for some reason, Lowe was 6-6 and huge in my dream, which he is not.

Dan Szymborski: The power is likely real, but I expect the BA to come down somewhat

Impatient Manchild: Where is the Szymborski prospect list?!?!

Dan Szymborski: Coming! I’m finishing anothe rproject for the site first.

Benji: Dan, do think Matt Boyd can command a haul at the trade deadline? Comparable to Archer/Quintana packages, or is that a bit strong? SDP makes a lot of sense

Dan Szymborski: I suspect the Tigers don’t trade Boyd.

Dan Szymborski: They wouldn’t trade Fulmer when it made obvious sense.

Dan Szymborski: So I’m not sure they’re going to be interested in trading someone who now appears better than Fulmer who they have a *better* shot at having when they’re good again

Xolo: Is Boyd’s breakout for real, either as an ace or just a top of the rotation arm?

Dan Szymborski: I think he’s mostly for real – it’s not fueled by some weird BABIP jump. I do think he could use one more pitch though.

Dan Szymborski: His locations have been incredible this year, he’s kinda got the hang of his slider that he fixed up last year

Dan Szymborski: He used to throw it a lot harder and since, it’s largely supplanted his changeup

Dan Szymborski: I’d kinda like to see the curve more and a bit more variation in the slider speed though. I think it woudl give his repertoire additional heft.

Derek in LIttle Rock: Dan, I may have missed the announcement but did you ever reveal your 2019 season win total (and player prop) picks?  I remember you mentioning you had feelings about San Diego that almost met the threshold of the 2018 Braves, so I figure they’re among your plays.  Let me know so I can root along with you when I’m watching some random Monday night June game when one of your picks is involved.

Dan Szymborski: I didn’t do an official prop picks piece. Other pieces came up and I never got to it.

Dan Szymborski: I only did four team over/unders this year, all NL West teams

Dan Szymborski: Padres over 78.5, Rockies under 84.5, Diamondbacks over 75.5, Giants under 73.5

Dan Szymborski: While ZiPS justified an Indians bet, the team’s OF downside and depth really worried me.

Dan Szymborski: The error bars were too large to me for a team over 90

Dan Szymborski: I’m not a compulsive bettor. I bet if I see opportunities. I don’t if I don’t.

Dan Szymborski: I generally do fewer bets because as public uses more projections and Vegas is long been aware of projections, you start to see fewer bet vs. projection discrepancies

Xolo: Between Reyes and Renfroe, which one should the Padres build around or can they carry two guys with such similar profiles?

Dan Szymborski: Franmillionaire.

Matt: Do you think that social media has contributed to a degradation of language? For example: (replying to an article about vlad jr maybe being in HR derby) “This would be AMAZING”…..would it? Or would it actually just be par for the course, as the type of thing one would expect from the HR Derby?

Dan Szymborski: LIkely, but I think that was already happening.

Dan Szymborski: Louis CK did a bit about that, someone saying something was amazing and it was something mundane and something amazing should like explode your brain

Dan Szymborski: (I think the word was amazing)

Dan Szymborski: That’s why we should invent new words.

Dan Szymborski: And we get new words from culture

Dan Szymborski: My mom’s Michael Scott in some ways, so I’ve taught her words like awesomesauce and amazeballs which she uses in conversations.

DeGromination: Talk to me about Darvish! He’s cutting the walks, bit by bit, and still not giving up many bombs. I’m bullish

Dan Szymborski: I’m moderately

Dan Szymborski: It’s been happening bit by bit but I wish the bit velocity was higher

yordan alvarez : yordan alvarez yordan alvarez yordan alvarez yordan alvarez yordan alvarez yordan alvarez yordan alvarez yordan alvarez yordan alvarez yordan alvarez yordan alvarez yordan alvarez yordan alvarez yordan alvarez yordan alvarez yordan alvarez yordan alvarez yordan alvarez yordan alvarez yordan alvarez

Dan Szymborski: That’s fair.

Dan Szymborski: REmember I wrote about him!

Dan Szymborski: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/yordan-alvarez-has-figured-out-this-baseba…

Dan Szymborski:

Bo: In your article on Keuchel, you mentioned the most likely scenario is Gausman to the ‘pen. ZiPS, however, likes Gausman over Teheran ROS. What are your thoughts?

Dan Szymborski: I think the Braves are being a little risk-averse.

Dan Szymborski: It’s hard to demote the guy with the good ERA over the guy over six, in reality.

Dan Szymborski: (demote as in bullpen)

Dan Szymborski: And as I said, I’m uneasy about the narrowing of Gausman’s repertoire. He may simply be a better bullpen fit right now

Magic Kingdome: Walrus mustache, mutton chops, or Van Dyke?

Dan Szymborski: Depends on the face shape!

B: Who are two ideal pitchers the Twins should target at the trade deadline since  Kimbrel and Keuchel signed elsewhere?

Dan Szymborski: Bumgarner is the obvious one.

Dan Szymborski: Though I’d love someone to send a spy to infiltrate the Nationals and see if they throw in the towel

Dan Szymborski: Because I’d want to swoop in and some Strasburg action!

Magic Kingdome: What non-panic moves could Cleveland make to turn the season around?

Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure they have many at their disposal.

Dan Szymborski: They’ll probalby turn it around for the wild card without doing anything major

Dan Szymborski: but they won’t win the ALC without anything major (and probably not with anything major anyway)

Dan Szymborski: The essentially need to add payroll that they weren’t willing to do a few months ago

Eminor3rd: …so did you ever get Giordano’s? What did you think?

Dan Szymborski: It was great! Though the Lou Malnati’s was better

Dan Szymborski: But it’s nice having that in a 20 minute drive rather than a 300 minute one

hey dan!: is matt carpenter facing real age related regression? what’s going on?

Dan Szymborski: I think he is, but I say that every year. I said that last year and he had four months of in-season MVP performance

Brian: Time to worry about Lorenzo Cain? Age, not really running, declining peripherals…should I be playing guys like Bryan Reynolds over him in a H2h categories league?

Dan Szymborski: Not quite yet

Bobby: The sun came up this morning, will go down tonight, and Mike Trout has caught up to Cody Bellinger for the WAR lead.

LFC Mike: Good Monday grizzled and caveman like Dan. You never have to get a haircut for us. What a weekend of bad news… Big Papi obviously the worst news.. then Brent Honeywell fractures his elbow in a bullpen session..I feel for that guy so much….. and closer to home.. How is Galileo recovering? Any sympathy from his friends? With that we are done with the bad news.. on to positive baseball and random stuff talk

Dan Szymborski: I was so sad to see the papi news!

Dan Szymborski: I was a little behind because I was playing a game of Total Wawr

Dan Szymborski: War

Dan Szymborski: Galileo’s fine. They drained his abscess and cleaned the wound.

Dan Szymborski: I was freaking out when I woke up! It looked like there was a golf ball on his chin.

Dan Szymborski: His normal vet couldn’t see him until 11 AM, so I brought him to the pet ER

Dan Szymborski: WHen Galileo won’t eat, something is REALLY wrong.

Dan Szymborski: He was cooperative and more or less back to normal.

Dan Szymborski: He was back at home and ready to eat again by noon.

Dan Szymborski: I’ve been washing his chin a couple times a day – there’s been no additional drainage since about midday yesterday

Dan Szymborski: So he’s fine and lives to eat my dinner another day!

Lordabove: What would making the ball heavier do in terms of contributing to or counteracting the three true outcome environment?

Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure about a heavier ball, I’d like them to deal with the easier issues before something that severe

Rick Renteria: White Sox twitter killed me for hitting Jose Rondon ahead of Eloy/Anderson on Saturday. Scale of 1-10 how bad was that decision?

Dan Szymborski: HOnestly, lineup decisions have to be absoultely batshit insane to matter objectively

v2micca: The Braves offense appears to go from decent to world beating after the 7th inning.  Have they just been hitting a streak of weak bullpens?

Dan Szymborski: This kind of thing is volatile.

howdy: You see anything different from berrios this year that makes you think hell maintain his current production? Last year he had a similar start and faded. Just the typical ebbs and flows of a young pitcher?

Dan Szymborski: I think the latter really

Mike: How do you have the NL East finishing?

Dan Szymborski: Atlanta slight edge

Eminor3rd: According to ZiPS, what are the chances that the sun does NOT rise tomorrow?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t project stellar evolution, but infintesimally close to zero

Dan Szymborski: The sun wouldn’t disappear just like that after all

Dan Szymborski: Which I told my mom when I was hanging out with her the other day

Dan Szymborski: “Danny, it’s quite dark for noon, is it supposed to rain today?”

Dan Szymborski: “Well, geez mom, what would make it dark at noon? The sun going out? Surprise eclipse”

Dan Szymborski: Now, the sun could go out, but I guess as part of some kind of vacuum metastability event

Dan Szymborski: which would off us pretty quick too

Magic Kingdome: Which current or former ballplayer would you most want to sit next to you on a flight?  And it cannot be Jose Canseco because the airline permanently banned him.

Dan Szymborski: Would love to get some video game talking time with Trevor May

Appa Yip Yip: A couple of years ago a guy in America and a guy in India decided to make an Earth Sandwich, so they both went outside and simultaneously put slices of bread on the ground, and sent each pictures of them doing so. Was the Earth, at this time, a sandwich?

Dan Szymborski: If it was in fact the opposite point, then yes

Dan Szymborski: But only if someone is holding both sides

Dan Szymborski: so you’d need someone with a REALLY big hand

Chris: What’s your voting methodology for the all Star game? (If you vote at all)

Dan Szymborski: I haven’t voted in a while. I used to use some current true ability estimate

Dan Szymborski: But in reality, the All-Star Game is the least interesting part of All-Star Week for me.

Dan Szymborski: I’ll be in Cleveland, but I’m only staying for the other stuff.

Dan Szymborski: By the way, tickets for our FanGraphs event in Cleveland for All-Star Week are for sale!

Dan Szymborski: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/instagraphs/announcing-the-fangraphs-all-s…

Magic Kingdome: It probably will not happen, but if the Royals traded Whit Merrifield at the deadline, what would the return look like?

Dan Szymborski: Adam Eatonish?

Berg: If the Red Sox are a .500 team in mid-July, are they buyers or sellers at the trade deadline?

Dan Szymborski: They might do some mild retooling as in a few years ago, but no major selling.

Eminor3rd: What is the best room in your house?

Dan Szymborski: My office.

Dan Szymborski: I’ve got three big screen TVs on the opposite wall, between 4-6 PCs at any given time

Dan Szymborski: and in the hottest days of summer, it stays a chill 59 degrees or so

Dan Szymborski: Plus, it’s next to the bathroom that has a dedicated bathroom laptop

Dan Szymborski: and I can do laundry!

Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: Mad Bum’s response to being told that he should let the kids play is that is form of letting the kids play is to tell the kids not to play. Thus, the paradox of intolerance makes its way into baseball.

Hello: Is it just me or are the White Sox starting to look like one-year-early FA players this winter?  Starting to fill a bunch of holes internally, Madrigal is raking in the high minors, etc.

Dan Szymborski: They may be. They’ve gotten better pitching news from the people that haven’t had TJ surgery

Dan Szymborski: You can feel the team really start coming together in a way you didn’t last year

Homer: Regarding you saying that the Tigers won’t trade Boyd.  Shouldn’t they trade him though?  Just because his value will likely never be higher.   Shouldn’t all clubs be looking to sell high on certain occasions, regardless of timing as it relates to winning/losing cycles?

Dan Szymborski: They probably *should* but it’s a moot point

Joe: Is it time to cut bait on Spencer Turnbull? Pick-up PabLo instead?

Dan Szymborski: You’re a greedy greedy man

Magic Kingdome: What the was the ESPN swag you got?

Dan Szymborski: I never thought about getting much swag

Dan Szymborski: But I *did* get to Town Car from the airport!

Dan Szymborski: and the time they rented me a car, it was a really nice Infiniti SUV

Dan Szymborski: Though a little large for my tastes – my cars have been a Ford Tempo, a Mazda 6, and now a Subaru Crosstrek, so I’m comfortable in smaller cars.

Dan Szymborski: I guess the 6 was technically a midsize, but it wa sa smaller midsize

Josh: Do you see any legitimate justification for the Padres keeping Urias down in AAA other than the price tag on Kinsler’s salary?

Dan Szymborski: The Padres haven’t done many service time games, but he should be up

just a guy: Is Jose Suarez going to get legit shot at rotation or headed back down?

Dan Szymborski: I think they have to see what sticks to the wall

Redsox fan: #prayforbigpapi. So according to fangraphs, Redsox projected standings right now to win 90 games this season. 7 games back in division.  Will they make playoffs or missed it? Will they do anything drastic in trading deadline, sell off pieces, ?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think they go all-in if it looks like upside

Nick: How do you weigh ZiPS vs personal opinion?

Dan Szymborski: Depends. I don’t have like some set thing

Awesome: The word from the bit was “awesome.”

HugoZ: Austin Riley’s OPS has regressed to .939. Would it be a good idea to send him back to AAA when Inciarte is ready to return?

Dan Szymborski: As my friend Chris Dial would say, plastic bag and a rubber band!

Kyle Hendricks #1 fan: So Kyle Hendricks is 8th in pitcher fWAR and he’s not getting much all star hype. The dude is too damn good. Any ideas on how to get him to Cleveland?

Dan Szymborski: You can take I-90 pretty much the whole way

Von Hayes: Is a bay the ocean?

Dan Szymborski: Wait, I should give a real answer

Dan Szymborski: Henricks has a real shot, his traditional ERA is quite solid

Dan Szymborski: It’s tricky, because pitchers are picked by player ballot and MLB

Matt: I’m back from lunch, Dan. You can start the chat

Dan Szymborski: OH GOD I ALREADY DID, WE GOTTA START OVER

Dan’s Mom: Please don’t make fun of me in your chats, dear.

Dan Szymborski: My mom would never call me dear

PD: Dan, if you don’t like the way I’m reading this chat, get it out of the ocean.

Dan Szymborski: I think bays have to be surrounded by a certain percentage of land

Dan Szymborski: and lots don’t have same salt content, like chesapeake bay

LFC Mike: Do you think Raisel Iglesias stays in Cincinnati or is he trade piece? Looking

Dan Szymborski: If they were going to trade him, they would have in 2017

caesar_solid: Do you have any thoughts on Ashton Goudeau and his amazing AA statline? Granted he is a 26 year old in AA, but he looks like a completely different pitcher than in the past and I can’t really find any more detailed info about him

Dan Szymborski: Last I saw goudeau, he was a low 90s fastball guy, pretty normal curve/change repertoire IIRC

Dan Szymborski: Haven’t actually watched him this year

bb: Is it morally ok to watch movies given Hollywood’s shameful treatment of legendary actress Lori Loughlin?

Dan Szymborski: lol

Matt: Giordano’s is crap pizza, and shouldn’t be uttered in the same conversation as Lou’s.

Dan Szymborski: I’m not joining this argument! WHen I mentioned there was a place in my area, my twitter timeline turned into people arguing about it

Dan Szymborski: and telling me OTHER places to go in Chicago

Dan Szymborski: WHen the whoe point was that this one was 20 minutes away from me because I live in Ohio

Dan Szymborski: Anyway, I’ll take art for art

Dan Szymborski: When I hear a symphony, I don’t really care about who wrote it

ghost of bruce bochte: Meg seems negative about trader jerry’s future with the Mariners. Any thoughts about how long he will last?

Dan Szymborski: Depends on results

Dan Szymborski: I like to imagine that as Dipoto feels pressure, the trades start coming fast and furious to the extent that he’s trading prospects before he acquires them, leading him into making constant trades because he’s kiting prospects.

Dan Szymborski: “WE NEED TO ACQUIRE YUSNIEL DIAZ RIGHT NOW?” “Why Jerry?” “BECAUSE I TRADED HIM TO THE BREWERS ON THURSDAY AND THEY’RE ASKING ME WHY HE HASN’T ARRIVED YET.”

Jake: Any indication Puig ever breaks out of this funk, or is this a season long slump he’s in?

Dan Szymborski: I’m quite worried.

Dan Szymborski: I think the Dodgers did a better job restraining his weaker instincts at the plate

O’s Nose: Hey Dan!  Can we talk about David Ortiz?  First, prayers are with him.  Second – and not important, just have to ask – does this incident buy him immunity from the ped discussion when his HOF voting comes up?  I mean, parts of 3 organs removed..  Gnarly.

Dan Szymborski: I think he probably had immunity anyway

Dan Szymborski: PED immunity is always given arbitrarily

Dan Szymborski: If Jeter had tested positive for something, a lot of writers would just assume that Jeter enhanced the steroids, not the other way around

ROBOCOP: with Giolito thriving and the eventual call up of Cease, do you think White Sox could finish the year at .500?

Dan Szymborski: Es possible

Matt: I think Bumgarner is kinda a douche, and needs to chill out. That said, doesn’t he have a point that his behavior is just him being him? Let the kid play. (Just don’t hit people)

Dan Szymborski: I don’t mind trash-talking and stuff. I just don’t want people to take cheap shots that physically risk the health of other people.

Matt: Re Earth Sandwich: Are you saying that a sandwich is not a sandwich unless the top and bottom bread is placed in perfect synchronicity, and this is no room for error?

Dan Szymborski: Not perfect, but it has to be some margin of error

Dan Szymborski: maybe within 5%?

Dan Szymborski: Like at least 95% of the bread has to be parallel to another piece of bread?

Dan Szymborski: It’s not like I have a ruler with sandwiches

Voldemort: Yelich is 5 HRs away from surpassing his preseason ZiPS projection and we haven’t even hit the ASB

Dan Szymborski: He good

ROBOCOP: what does your ideal 2019 Home Run derby field look like?

Dan Szymborski: PITCHERS

Dan Szymborski: Let’s do a pitcher one one year!

Dbo: Hang on, someone needs to be holding the bread for it to be a sandwich? So if a sandwich is sitting on the counter but no one is holding it, is it therefore both a sandwich and not a sandwich?  Schrodingers Sandwich

Dan Szymborski: But the earth isn’t on a plate

Dan Szymborski: it’s just kinda floating around

Planet Dust: US doesn’t have an antipode that would work. Spain-New Zealand is an option though, I think. Among others.

Dan Szymborski: I dunno, it could be an french dip earth sandwich with the ocean

O’s Nose: Can I come live in your office?

Dan Szymborski: It would involve living with me, which nobody really should want

Planet Dust: Dave, speaking of the hottest days of summer:
How do you get a bunch of Canadians out of the pool on the hottest day of summer?
….
You yell, “everybody out of the pool!”

Dan Szymborski: I’ve made tha tjoke!

Gaslamp Gary: It’s amazing just how much the Padres missed a 20 year-old rookie. Tatis is special.

Khaki Segura: As a practicing astrophysicist, I hereby award you three pinocchios to your, “the Sun could go out” comment.  Which is significant, since that brings up your running total of false comments in the history of this Chat to [checks notes] we need new math.

Dan Szymborski: I said the sun COULDN’T just go out

Dan Szymborski: didn’t I?

Dan Szymborski: It would need a vacuum metastability event or something, no?

O’s Nose: In real life, Von Hayes would never stand for you answering Kyle Hendricks #1 fan before him.

Dan Szymborski:

Dbo: Dan, what are your thoughts on cutting bagels St. Louis style?

Dan Szymborski: OH god, do I want to know what that is?

Dan Szymborski: JFC

Dan Szymborski: I did not

Dan Szymborski:

Dan Szymborski:

Matt: Giordanao’s : Pizza ::  Dan’s pinions on chili : Correct opinions on chili

Planet Dust: The pieces of bread have to overlap at least

Matt: So, if neil armstrong had a sandwich on his way to the moon, and momentarily let go of said sandwich, allowing to to float in space…it would for that moment not be a sandwich?

Dan Szymborski: I’ll have to consider that

Slam and legs: What’s the deal with Mikolas? Most underlying numbers look identical to last year (so/9, w/9, babip, etc.), but allowing tons of HRs. Is this just a luck (bad luck, specifically) based issue?

Dan Szymborski: I think he’ll be OK, but just not as good as last year

Dave: Please tell Khaki Segura I want to learn two astrophysics facts today.

Dan Szymborski: helium can’t be solid, IIRC

TRANE: Do you think MLB is considering expanding Division Series’ to 7 games?

Dan Szymborski: No

Matt: I respect anyone’s choice to become an Astrophysicist, but why would anyone want to study the movement of the Jetsons’ dog?

romorr: Which pitching prospect from the Orioles do you like the best?  Easy answer is Hall or Rodriguez, but there is something about Lowther I really like.

Dan Szymborski: Hall’s my favorite

Dan Szymborski: But I might like Rodriguez even more simply because he probably has a relatively high floor

Dan Szymborski: Though you could say that about Lowther

Dan Szymborski: I think the problem with Lowther is that he’s older than the other two

Matt: I think the biggest hole in the Earth Sandwich Theory is that India and North American are on the same flat plane.

Matt Klentak: helium can be a solid but its very rare

Dan Szymborski: Oh, it can?

Dan Szymborski: I thought it couldn’t be cold enough

Would you rather: less games (150ish) or expansion to 32 teams?

Dan Szymborski: banned for “less”

Matt Klentak: sandwiches dont exist in space, not enough gravity to keep bread together without use of hands or a toothpick

Nick: how the hell did this thing make it to the moon

Dan Szymborski: The moon landing is fake. This is the moon and the moon is earth. We’ve been there the whole time.

Magic Kingdome: All this sandwich talk is just a smoke screen so you can eat all the pierogi.

David: Cat Updates?

Dan Szymborski: Guess we’ll finish with the required cat update

Dan Szymborski: Already gave the full Galileo update

Dan Szymborski: Mercutio, easily the dumbest cat I’ve ever had, took two days to remember who Galileo was.

Dan Szymborski: (he’s an extremely friendly, good-natured cat, but he’s dumber than a bag of nickels)

Dan Szymborski: Cassiopeia has been doing the usual, bringing me that damn toy hedgehog

tb.25: summertime suggestion for the heat wave on the west coast: chili beans will in fact make you feel chilly.

Call it: What’s the most you ever lost on a coin toss?

Dan Szymborski: Never bet on a coin toss

Matt: Wasn’t one of the first experiments done on the ISS an accidental experiment that showed how particles naturally move towards each other in space – thus illustrating the basis of planetary formation? Wouldn’t this concept keep a sandwich together?

hscer: so my hot dog buns unexpectedly went moldy but I’d already started heating 2 hot dogs. I improvised with a bagel, tearing it in half and using the slice so now I have four pieces, creating sort of buns but they’re not connected. it’s structurally unstable but the real important question: well, you know

Dan Szymborski: just make batter and deep fry it!

Guest: How tired is the Bumgarner stuff. Soft tossing command/deception lefty tough guy

Dan Szymborski: I don’t mind trash talk. Just let’s not have in-game violence.

Dan Szymborski: If you want to challenge someone to an offseason boxing match for charity or something, have at it.

Dan Szymborski: And on that note, I will wrap this up for another week!

Dan Szymborski: Thanks for joining me everyone!

Dan Szymborski: And remember to grab your tickets to the Cleveland FanGraphs event if you’re in the area around the All-Star Game!

Dan Szymborski: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/instagraphs/announcing-the-fangraphs-all-s…