Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 7/29/2019 by Dan Szymborski July 29, 2019 12:03 Dan Szymborski: The worst time of the week starts now! 12:03 Esoteric Jeff: Alas, thou hast been slain by a MagiDrakee 12:03 Dan Szymborski: HURTMORE 12:04 Dan Szymborski: In the original translation of Dragon Quest (Dragon Warrion in America), the primary offensive spell was called HURT. So naturally, the upgraded version you get later is called HURTMORE. 12:04 Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: How does the Stroman trade affect the likelihood of a Tebow callup? This is a serious question I want to know the answer to. Hopefully they’re out of it by September and promote the man for the jersey and ticket sales, but I’m concerned that this strange win-now move will preclude them from calling up a 31 year-old with a 25 wRC+ in AAA. 12:05 Dan Szymborski: The Mets are such a weird franchise. If they’re determined to call up Tebow, then they’ll do it, regardless of any conditions that would make it a good or bad idea. 12:05 Dan Szymborski: (And I’m straining to find good ideas) 12:05 Dan Szymborski: Even jersey sales, they only get a benefit from stadium sales and any team owned stores. 12:05 Dan Szymborski: Someone buys a Tebow jersey on MLB.com, that goes into the share merchandising revnues, so the Marlins would get just as much benefit. 12:05 James: Man the Tigers went from bad to historically awful in no time. Is there any excuse for finishing the year with negative WAR as a team? 12:06 Dan Szymborski: “How about Brewster’s Millions, but instead of spending money, losing?” 12:06 Fred: If I had proposed the Stroman trade on a chat and said who hangs up, would you have rolled your eyes at another unrealistic fan proposal? 12:06 Dan Szymborski: It’s interesting – my Giants trade proposal for Ray is probably way too rich now. 12:06 Dan Szymborski: But the Minor trade that Rangers fans did not like probably is right on 12:06 Dan Szymborski: Minor shouldn’t be fetching *less* than Stroman and I’d have a hard time arguing that Abreu (pre injury) and Schmidt is considerably *worse* than the Mets package 12:07 Vladdy: Which bluejays relievers are almost a lock to be traded by the deadline? 12:07 Dan Szymborski: I still think Giles goes 12:07 Dan Szymborski: No real purpose to hang onto Hudson 12:07 Rumor Monger: Good Monday Dan. I hear Jerry DIPoto has traded you and your 3 cats to a European Soccer website for 2 interns to be named later and a lifetime supply of Sky Line Chili. First of all…is this true and if so who got the better of the deal?…and lastly….Can Jerry DIPoto trade anyone he wants to anytime he wants to? 12:07 Dan Szymborski: We’ve already been traded twice since then. 12:08 Nate: With their unwillingness to move good young talent, who will the Yankees actually land? 12:08 Dan Szymborski: It’s hard to say. Given the Stroman package, it’s hard to say the Yankees aren’t justified. 12:08 Dan Szymborski: I think they’ll make *some* upgrade, but the exact names are tricky 12:08 Kyle: Who is the most likely player to be traded now that Stroman is gone? 12:08 Dan Szymborski: I don’t think anything’s really changed 12:08 Vladdy: How do you think Giles few number of games lately (and some questions about his health) is going to affect his trade value? 12:09 Dan Szymborski: Presumably a new team will do their due diligence 12:09 Dan Szymborski: Only so many releivers available. My gut says Will Smith isn’t traded now. 12:09 is Skyline Chili a soup: If that’s the market return for Stroman, a Bumgarner trade would yield disappointing results. Perhaps Farhan Z keeps MadBum as a token to fans and future Free Agents? 12:09 Dan Szymborski: I had already crossed out Madbum from my mental trade list even before Stroman 12:09 Dbo: Don’t let the Yankees getting blown out 19-3 make you forget the Rangers beat the Orioles 30-3 in 2007! 12:10 Patrick Henry’s Little League: GIVE ME TRADES OR GIVE ME DEATH 12:10 Jeb: Odds Vazquez gets dealt? If he does, what is the return for the Bucs? 12:10 Dan Szymborski: I think slim 12:11 Dan Szymborski: By all accounts, both public and grapevine, Bucs are asking for a lot 12:11 LFC Mike: When the robot umpires take over please tell me they will be programmed to have real umpire personalities. I can’t wait to see Robot Joe West throw somebody out of a game for arguing with a machine. 12:11 Dan Szymborski: The Angel Hernandez robot has a built in random error algorithm 12:11 Bo: Even though Markakis wasn’t having a stellar year, with him out it limits the Braves OF options. Is this an opportunity to acquire a difference-maker, provided the market for bats is more of a buyer’s market than the pitching market? 12:11 Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure there are any real difference makers available offensively 12:12 Dan Szymborski: I think if adding a bat, Braves get a depth type 12:12 Tim: If you were Neil Huntington, who would you trade over the next three days? 12:12 Dan Szymborski: I’d certainly trade Dickerson. Id’ rather acquire him than Castellanos 12:12 Kiley Fan #1 Most Best very hapy: Going camping next weekend and making a breakfast hash. Lots of recipes out there, any tips or tricks? 12:12 Dan Szymborski: USe fire 12:12 Dan Szymborski: and potatoes 12:12 Dbo: Mayonnaise is an underrated condiment, ketchup mayo mix is great for burgers and fries! 12:13 Dan Szymborski: eww ketchup 12:13 Khaki Segura: Are there any contract stipulations that would preclude the Mets from re-trading Stroman? Not saying they WILL, but it seems like the more assets you control, the more you can get for them, if everyone has to go through you. 12:13 Dan Szymborski: Not that I know of 12:13 Dan Szymborski: I doubt it would work out this way in practice 12:13 Ryan: Can the Angels pull off a Syndergaard deal without including Adell? 12:13 Dan Szymborski: Maybe 12:13 Dan Szymborski: It’s hard to say exactly *what* the Mets demands are 12:13 Jim Leyland Palmer: What is the expected effect of the Stroman deal for other sellers? Positive – because two sellers sold amongst themselves, essentially taking one of the competing higher-end SPs off the board, lowering the supply. or Negative – the return for TOR was quite a bit lighter than most were expecting. 12:13 Dan Szymborski: I think no effect really 12:13 Slapshot: How would you rate Trevor Bauer’s antics when getting pulled from the game yesterday, both for the overall temper tantrum and the incredible throw he made? 12:14 Dan Szymborski: My first thought was “wow, maybe he should get some reps in the outfield” 12:14 Nellie: Snell’s surgery went smoothly today. I have both he and Carlos Carrasco. I would like to keep both in a 10-team mix (currently I’m in first place but it’s a super tight/competitive league) We have two weeks regular season left starting today and then only two rounds of 2-week playoffs. So final day of playoffs is Sept. 8th. Not sure either will pitch before then, much less effectively. Would you still hold both? Carrasco has been throwing but still not much clarity on their plans for him. 12:14 Dan Szymborski: Holding both is risky if you’re competitive 12:14 Dbo: If Pete Rose legally changed his name to Pete Violet then would he be able to get into the Hall of Fame since he bypassed the “Pete Rose is not allowed in the Hall of Fame” rule? 12:14 Dan Szymborski: I think the penalty is attached to the person not the name. 12:16 Dan Szymborski: I’m no lawyer, but I’m quite certain that Ozzie Albies can’t get out of his contract by saying “Haha, I’m Rick Albies now, suckers!” and then hit free agency while someone in the Braves organization throws their hat onto the ground and yells “tarnation!” 12:16 urgent please answer: could Ohtani throw a splitter so nasty that he himself could not hit it 12:16 Dan Szymborski: Yes 12:16 Rich K: Hi Dan. Reynaldo Lopez went from one of the worst starters in MLB before the All-Star break to one of the best starters since the break. How much of this do you think is SSS noise, and how much the product of a meaningful adjustment by a talented young pitcher with a 97-mph (low-spin) fastball? 12:16 Dan Szymborski: I wouldn’t pop the corks yet 12:17 Dan Szymborski: He’s pitched well, but it’s still 3 games 12:17 Twins: Fangraphs odds give them a 7 in 9 chance of winning the division, although the lead is down to 2. Which team does Zips like better ROS? Would you take over or under on those division odds? 12:17 Dan Szymborski: Indians by a hair. I think I’d take the over simply because of the risk the Indians trade Bauer 12:17 Ralph Rowdie : How odd is the Sogard acquisition? Do the Rays flip him? 12:17 Dan Szymborski: I don’t think it’s odd 12:18 Bill: Dan, I’m bored. Make my favorite team do something. 12:18 Dan Szymborski: You guys seem to overestimate by jurisdiction 12:18 Chris: Why are the dodgers bargain bin hunting? 12:19 Dan Szymborski: They already have the best record in baseball and an easy path to the division title, so they’re not feeling much pressure. It’ snot like the things available are generally *great* 12:20 Dan Szymborski: So there’s diminished marginal returns. You didn’t see Mozart running around trying to eat the brains of Dittersdorf or Kraus in an attempt to get stronger. 12:20 RJ: Do you remember when Darnell Coles threw a ball out of Tiger Stadium? That’s what Bauer made me think of yesterday. 12:20 Craig: Do you anticipate Brendon Rodgers to be ready for opening day in COL? Will he start the season in the Majors? 12:20 Dan Szymborski: I think he’ll be ready. Whether he starts the season in the majors depends on whether the Rockies find a worse idea that they’re excited about or not. 12:21 Matty: Who do the Brewers add by Wednesday? I’ve set the under at 2.5 pitchers and lean over. 12:21 Dan Szymborski: I think they do add a starting pitcher. 12:21 BarryBondsJuicedForOurSins: On a scale of 1-10, Sergio Romo moves the needle how many spots? 12:21 Dan Szymborski: Let’s put it this way: the new Ryzen CPUs use a 7nm process. 12:22 A. S. Maness: I’m a big Dan fan! 12:22 Dan Szymborski: Maness is my official historian. 12:22 Morbo: Dan, my Monday is very busy can we please reschedule you chat for tomorrow instead 12:22 Dan Szymborski: NO 12:22 Craig: When do you expect SD and ATL to start trimming down Paddack and Soroka’s IP? 12:23 Dan Szymborski: The Padres have been careful with Paddack. Even without changing things up, I don’t think Paddack goes much beyond 130 innings 12:23 Bo: Think Bauer is actually on the block? 12:24 Dan Szymborski: I suspect he’s sort of on. If the Indians get blown over, yes, but I don’t think you can get Bauer for pennies on the dollar, no matter what shenanigans he’s up to 12:24 Joe: Top 5 most dysfunctional franchises? 12:24 Dan Szymborski: Rockies, Marlins, Royals, Mets, Angels 12:25 Dan Szymborski: In no particular order 12:25 CJ: So Marcus Stroman to the Mets, WTF? Jaffe’s piece on it for the site seems to suggest that they may have been doing it to take a piece off the market to amp up the return for Syndergaard/Wheeler – is that plausible? Is this just an agent overthinking it in his new GM role? Where do you see Syndergaard or Wheeler actually being able to land if they want to deal them? 12:25 Dan Szymborski: I think it’s overthinking 12:26 Szymbo Slice: Taco Cat is Taco Cat spelled backwards. 12:26 Bo: I’m sure many fan bases are asking why their GM didn’t outdo the Mets’ package for Stroman, but surely the Braves could have really used him and his high GB%. 12:26 Dan Szymborski: Stroman and the Mets defense is amusing 12:27 Andrew: From a Jays perspective, can you give me some positives from Kay and Woods Richardson? I need some cheering up. Thank you. 12:28 Dan Szymborski: SWR has good upside. The Jays should be taking riskier young players in their position. It’s much better than the weird JA Happ return 12:28 mets fan: Syndergaard and Diaz for Lux, May and Ruiz Who says no? 12:28 Dan Szymborski: Dodgers 12:28 Dan Szymborski: If the Dodgers had an itnerest in doing trades like this, they already would have 12:28 CamdenWarehouse: Why would you post a reminder of 30-3, Dan? I don’t come to your chats for pain. 12:28 Dan Szymborski: You should. 12:28 Sean: David Peralta is a difference maker offensively? 12:29 Dan Szymborski: Well, if he has a chalkboard and some chalk, he can write some subtraction problems 12:29 Bo: The fact that mayo-chup is now an actual marketed thing you can buy makes me sad for our future. 12:29 Dan Szymborski: Anything that touches garbage is garbage 12:29 LFC Mike: Does Trevor Bauer need to work on his launch angle for throwing a ball out of the field of play or has he maxed out? 12:29 Vladdy: Will Simeon Woods Richardson be on fangraphs top 100 prospects at the end of the season? 12:30 Dan Szymborski: Should ask Eric or Kiley, who do chats on Friday and Wednesday respectively! 12:30 Daniel: Does Stroman’s return set the market for Thor and Wheeler? 12:30 Dan Szymborski: I don’t think so because I don’t think th emarket actually goes this way 12:30 Dan Szymborski: Stroman’s package was light, but nto *that* light. Teams don’t give away prospects easily anymore. 12:31 Dan Szymborski: Things like Torres-Chapman need *very* specific things to be happening. 12:31 mets fan: How likely is it that Diaz gets traded? 12:31 Dan Szymborski: Not very 12:31 Roman Numeral Three: Reports had the Jays asking the Yanks for Torres and Deivi in Stroman trade talks. Then they ended up agreeing to the Mets deal. How the heck did the Jays go from point A to point B in this process? 12:31 Dan Szymborski: “I want $50,000 for my Camry!” “No, that’s too much.” “OK, how about $5,000?” “Done.” 12:31 Morbo: Dan you don’t like ketchup? Ketchup is the one true condiment all other condiments aspire to be ketchup! I’m not sure we can be friends anymore!! 12:31 Dan Szymborski: We cannot be. 12:31 CamdenWarehouse: Also, it was Pete Rose not Pete Violet who got all those hits 12:32 Vladdy: Does Justin Smoak get traded? 12:32 Dan Szymborski: I’m thinking no 12:32 Jon: If I made a basic spreadsheet that allowed you to enter a player and see their surplus value relative to their contract in terms of $/WAR would that be worth submitting to Fangraphs to publish? Has this been done already? 12:32 Dan Szymborski: I’d wait and see all the stuff that’s coming with the Roster Resource transition! 12:32 BarryBondsJuicedForOurSins: Twins schedule vs Indians schedule isn’t close. Twins win going away. 12:33 Dan Szymborski: I haven’t checked in a few days, but last I did, ZiPS had the Indians schedule like 30 points harder than the Twins 12:34 Dan Szymborski: Something like 70% of their games (as of a few days ago) were against teams at .500 or below 12:34 Adam: When the Tigers or Blue Jays ask for Gleyber Torres in a trade, is it because they think there’s even a 1% chance the Yankees say yes, or so their actual ask (Garcia, Andujar, etc) seems reasonable? If the latter, does this ever actually work? 12:34 Dan Szymborski: I don’t think they actually ask like this 12:34 Chris: Dipoto will make _____ number of trades this deadline (he’s at 1 or 3 depending how you look at it) 12:34 Dan Szymborski: ∞ 12:35 LFC Mike: If you had the power… what would be the one trade you would make for one team? Your very best idea that is reasonable in this market? 12:35 Dan Szymborski: I just did a whole article on the subject! 12:35 Guest: that make the Tigers the most functional bad front office? 12:35 Dan Szymborski: I could get behind it 12:36 Rockies, Marlins, Royals, Mets, : Well at least KC got a ring out of it 12:36 Dan Szymborski: Mama June is a millionaire 12:36 Scherzer’s Blue Eye: Orioles not dysfunctional? With Angelos at the helm? 12:36 Dan Szymborski: I’m waiting and seeing with their front office. 12:36 Dan Szymborski: The Peter isn’t really at the helm. 12:37 Scherzer’s Blue Eye: Can you post more ridiculous Met fan propsals? I personally like Thor for Lindor or Correa. 12:37 Matt: The Bauer incident didn’t actually have any impact on his perceived market value. Any team that had interest in him knew what they’d be getting, and this little outburst of frustration changed their priors in no way. 12:37 Dan Szymborski: Yeah, if bauer had beat up something that would be different. 12:38 Dan Szymborski: The thing about Bauer is that despite the eye-rolling people have with him, his only crime really is kinda being a loudmouth that pisses people off. He’s like the antagonist on a sitcom 12:39 Gub Gub: Dan, whatever happened to Billy Blanks? 12:39 Dan Szymborski: I assume he retired to a sugar plantation on his yoga kung fu stuff 12:39 Dbo: I’m starting to think the NL Central is the most mediocre division instead of the most competitive 12:39 Shark Tanker: Dan. Do I have an offer for you. Have you considered trashing the whole baseball thing and instead building cat beds that look like computers….you seem to have a few fans in your house. Imagine a TRS 80 cat bed with a scratching post.😻😻😻😻😻😻😺😺😺😺😺 12:40 Dan Szymborski: I’m nto sure on the revenue model for this. 12:41 Dan Szymborski: For those with the good sense to not be on Twitter, this is referring to a picture of my youngest cat, who recently figured out that the top of big PC is the best place to sleep since I have a radiator at the top exhaust. 12:41 Dan Szymborski: 12:41 Gub Gub: Amazing. The Mets have “Wet Bandits”-ed their own house. 12:42 Juan Pursuit : Can you explain the Roster Resource thing? 12:42 Dan Szymborski: Explain what in particular? It’s awesome work by Jason Martinez who has joined FG 12:42 Dbo: Is it possible that the Mets got drunk and confused that they are not actually the Yankees and traded for Stroman, then waking up the next morning confused why they now have a new pitcher on their roster? 12:42 Dan Szymborski: Yes 12:43 Hotdog Sandwich: Austin Riley can’t seem to find his way off the bench lately. Shouldn’t the Braves send him down so that he can play everyday? 12:43 Dan Szymborski: I would absolutely send him down to Gwinnett. Is he going to sit his way out of his slump? 12:43 LFC Mike: Botanically speaking a tomato is a fruit therefore ketchup is a fruit purée. You need to eat fruits and vegetables Dan …I am sure you mom will be here in this chat soon enough to remind you of that..so have some ketchup. 12:44 Dan Szymborski: My mom barely can remember the name of the place I work for! 12:44 Dan Szymborski: She asked me how statfans was goig the other day 12:44 CamdenWarehouse: The Angebros Orioles seems a lot more functional than the Peter Orioles 12:44 kevinthecomic: Dan, thanks for chatting! Do you think that you are enough of a celebrity to one day (hopefully far distant in the future) appear on Wikipedia’s ‘Recent Deaths’ page? 12:44 Dan Szymborski: Borderline at best. 12:45 Dan Szymborski: I have a wikipedia entry, but it doesn’t really make a claim to notability, so I’m not sure why it hasn’t been deleted. I don’t think it’s been updated in over a decade, either 12:45 Dan Szymborski: It doesn’t even have me with ESPN, who I agreed to join in *2009* 12:45 kevinthecomic: Because the answer to a subtraction problem is the difference! I get it! 12:45 Sum: if I’m concerned at all about Bauer’s behavior, it’s that he winged a 300-foot bomb without proper form. injury risk now increased. 12:45 Sean: How fun could baseball be if all 30 GMs got together in a single room, got super super drunk, and all deals were official? 12:45 Dan Szymborski: A winning idea for Winter Meetings! 12:46 CamdenWarehouse: No one updated Wikipedia to include Chass’s article about you? How sad! 12:46 Dan Szymborski: Blogs aren’t reliable sources 🙂 12:46 kevinthecomic: Re: re-trading — didn’t the Twins do that with some pitcher a couple of years ago — he made like one start with the Twins and was dealt again IIRC 12:46 Dan Szymborski: Jaime Garcia 12:46 Byung-Hyun Kim Kardashian: who do you think the most surprising player to move at the deadline will be? 12:46 Dan Szymborski: Well, then it wouldn’t be a surprise NOW WOULD IT 12:49 romorr: So outside of the Orioles top prospects, is there a guy you like, or are high on for some reason? 12:49 Dan Szymborski: Dean Kermer maybe? 12:49 Dan Szymborski: Kremer 12:49 IsIt2020Yet?: Pittsburgh seems like they belong on the dysfunctional list, imo. 12:51 Bauer: He did sic some commenters on that woman online, but still a far cry from, say, Chapman, Russell, etc 12:51 Dan Szymborski: I wouldn’t say that about Pittsburgh as a team. *Ownership* yes. 12:53 Dan Szymborski: As for Bauer, that was blown way out of proportion. Bauer didn’t exactly cover himself in roses, but when you troll someone on Twitter, it’s hard to complain when you’re trolled back. 12:53 Dbo: You’re a C-List celebrity in our hearts Dan! 12:53 Dan Szymborski: awwww 12:53 BVW: Are there any prospects I won’t trade? 12:54 Dan Szymborski: The good (?) thing about the Mets is that they don’t really have that many prospects that should be considered hands-off outside of an amazing deal 12:55 Dan Szymborski: Outside of, say, Mauricio, is there anyone Mets fans would be truly despondent about losing? 12:55 Dan Szymborski: In a reasonable trade of course. 12:55 Dan Szymborski: I’m not saying you flip Andres Gimenez for Mychal Givens or something 12:55 Dan Szymborski: (OK as an Orioles fan, I’m saying to do that) 12:55 CamdenWarehouse: ahem, it was an article not a blog. just ask him 12:56 Dan Szymborski: Verducci said it was a blog and he’s a secondary source! 12:56 Guest: The last human to edit your article was by someone who goes by FoCuSandLeArN, on January 23, 2016. 12:56 Dan Szymborski: I hate random capital letters 12:56 Nick: Are the Royals really dysfunctional, or just pretty bad? They and the Mets have at least made it to the WS recently, but Mets are definitely dysfunctional. Seems a little harsh for the Royals 12:56 Dan Szymborski: They’re dysfunctional 12:57 Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure how one 90-win season in a lousy division in *13* years makes them a functioning franchise 12:57 Bauer: Bauer is also a climate change denier. Due to his platform, that is relatively dangerous 12:57 Dan Szymborski: I could not give half a crap about the politics of players 12:57 Dan Szymborski: It’s about as dangerous as a fart in a hurricane. 12:58 Rando Calfornian: Van Wagenen has been clear about wanting to contend next year, and Stroman should certainly help with that; and it seems the team has a decent amount of options at the deadline (including doing nothing and giving Wheeler a QO or picking up the Vargas option). People are harping about them not having a plan, but it seems like the plan is to explore various avenues forward for improving the team in the near future as the deadline approaches- absent all of the baggage that people associate with Mets regimes past and present, is that really so unreasonable? Depending on who they keep, they could have a dominant rotation next year, or a good one with some pieces in place for the longer term. 12:58 Dan Szymborski: Except the problem with the Mets is every step forward has another step back. 12:58 Dan Szymborski: “Explore various avenues for improving the team” isn’t really a plan. Every team is doing that. 12:58 kevinthecomic: FUN FACT: After last night, Mike Fiers has pitched 13 quality starts in a row. 12:59 Dan Szymborski: This is actually true 12:59 Bing: Royce Lewis or Bo Bichette….who would you start your team with? 12:59 Dan Szymborski: Boba Chette 12:59 Magic Kingdome: Where’s the article on today’s big Lucas Duda news? 12:59 Dan Szymborski: Is releasing Duda even news at this point? 12:59 Dan Szymborski: I think A-Rod not eating his birthday cake is bigger news! 1:00 Magic Kingdome: Royals seem more bad than dysfunctional. You rarely get reports about problems within the organization or the team struggling to come up with a plan. The Royals have a plan. It is just not a good plan. 1:00 Dan Szymborski: I think a team that thinks it’s 1964 is pretty dysfunctional 1:00 Mountie Votto: Josh VanMeter tweaked his swing recently and that has coincided with a major uptick in production. Are you buying a potential solid major leaguer in there? 1:00 Dan Szymborski: I don’t know if I’d say *that* good, but he’s gotten some serious results in the minors 1:01 Dan Szymborski: plus, his cameo in the minors has been fine 1:02 Dan Szymborski: It’s what I continually say – just because a player is not a prospect or no longer a prospect doesn’t mean you stop giving them opportunities to prove you wrong. No team has as AAA franchise with two dozen real prosepcts 1:02 Tom: I’m actually terrified to think of the potential butterfly-effect ramifications of a fart in a hurricane 1:02 Dan Szymborski: On that note, it is time for me to shuffle off for another weke. 1:02 Dan Szymborski: week 1:02 Dan Szymborski: Thanks for joining me everyone!