Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 7/8/21

Dan Szymborski: The appointed time as foretold has arrived.

Dan Szymborski: So prepare those complaints that people are asking questions about a topic you do not want them to.

Joe: What are your thoughts on going underslot in the first round of the draft? Seems very risky considering how unpredictable the draft gets after the first 15 or so picks.

Dan Szymborski: I think it’s risky, but if you *really* like someone, it can be worth the risk. I dont’ think a hard/fast always/good-always/bad thing works

Dodgers pitching “Depth”: Who will the dodgers pick up? I think Nats should at least get a call but a healthy kluber on a flailing Yankees might be a good move. Or maybe Hendricks if the Cubs flop?

Dan Szymborski: Hendricks is certainly a possibility, but the Cubs may not want to trade him at a low point in his value. I do think the Dodgers will pick up a pitcher of course.

Dan Szymborski: At this point, they’re going to operate as if there’s no more Bauer, I think.

Dan Szymborski: (but I don’t do projections for criminal investigations and player suspensions/releases)

Dan Szymborski: I think there will be a lot of sellers in the NL, but I’m still not sure which. It depends who thinks they have a divisional chance in a couple weeks.

Dan Szymborski: Because ain’t nobody in the East or Central chasing a wild card spot, at least if they’re smart.

Keefths: Any insights on Hoy Jun Park or Josh Jung ? Are they legit ?

Dan Szymborski: I think both are extremely interesting.

Dan Szymborski: Park’s been terrific in Scranton and older Triple-A guys aren’t huge risks. Jung’s wait and see, but there’s certainly nothing to complain about so far

Vader: Hi Dan! Do you see the Mariners selling and moving Haniger and Graveman? Will Kelenic come up and Sewald be closing?

Dan Szymborski: I suspect some low-key selling, but I think they don’t trade Haniger and they only trade Graveman if their record is worse than it is now.

Dan Szymborski: “Ask for me in the ninth, and you may find me a grave man.”

Hiura Kari: Do you see a situation where he is dealt for a few rentals at the deadline? It appears whatever they are trying in MIL is not working.

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think he’s traded unless it’ as long-term piece that can be part of the team’s core.

Dan Szymborski: Not a two-month rental.

Dan Szymborski: They’d send him back to Triple-A and make a lower key pickup first, I think.

Tacoby Bellsbury: If you were seated at a dunk tank suspended above a vat of Cincinnati chili (for charity, or in lieu of execution, whatever), which pitcher would you least like to see walk up to try and dunk you by hitting the target with a throw? Why?

Dan Szymborski: Hendricks maybe? There are arguably pitchers wiht a little better control (though not many), but he’s the only one of the top who people think ZiPS is mean to, and there’s at least a *chance* that he becomes aware of that before the day of the fair.

HarryLime: Sims or Tejay the closer when they return?

Dan Szymborski: It should be Tejay, but the Reds are really conservative at closer and I kinda suspect that Sims has a little more rope left.

Dan Szymborski: It also dpeends on how the recovery goes

Dan Szymborski: If the Reds are well behind the division title by late July

Dan Szymborski: I’d be very conservative with Tejay’s return and usage

Estevão: Brewers were underrated and this shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone

Dan Szymborski: Just how good the rotation is should be!

AJ Prowler: Preller seems to covet LH bats. Do see him making a run at Gallo as an eventual replacement for Myers or Hosmer?

Dan Szymborski: They’ve shown little inclination to take playing time away from these guys

Tacoby Bellsbury: As a fun inversion of that, which player would you most like to see get dunked into a dunk tank of Cincinnati chili? Why?

Dan Szymborski: I think Rowdy Tellez because he might do a sweet cannonball and get chili EVERYWHERE

Jazzy Jeff: Assuming he comes back in a few weeks, how does zips like Eloy for the remainder of the year?

Dan Szymborski: Just fine. This is probably not the best use of a projection system!

Who’s Fabio?: Hey Dan – can you ask your AI chat generator to tell us the story of how Dee Gordon became Dee Strange-Gordon?

Dan Szymborski: Oooooo, now that’s fun

Dan Szymborski: (Sorry, fun questions/challenges/ideas always get queue priority, this is an entertainment product!)

Dan Szymborski:

Joe: What do you think the Yankees do at the deadline?

Dan Szymborski: They’re in a bit of a tougher spot as they don’t have obvious expiring contracts like they did in 2016; I think it’s just Kluber unless I’m forgetting someone.

Dan Szymborski: I think they’re going to be one of the teams taking the decision as close to the deadline as possible

Estevão: Elvis Andrus and Mark Ellis have a higher combined WAR (63.3) than Ryan Howard and JImmy Rollins (62.3)

McVittie’s Chocolate Digestives: Has your opinion of Brian Cashman dropped after seeing the Yankees’ results this season?

Dan Szymborski: Not really

tgt969: With the NL Playoff teams basically decided is anyone on the Pirates (other than Hayes & Reyolds) tradable?

Dan Szymborski: I think so. And I think Reynolds is too

Jack: Is Myles Straw for real?

Dan Szymborski: I know Myles Straw sounds like some creature from folklore from Iowa, who captured a thunderstorm in a net made of straw and grew stalks of corn that reached the moon and took all the cheese leaving just the rock. But I’ve seen him play and I know he’s for real.

Dan Szymborski: He’ll get on base, play some defense, hit for no power. As long as the Astros remain realistic about his upside, he’s just fine

Bradley: If you have 2 players who crush in miLB, one in AA at say age 22, the other in AAA at age 23, how does ZIPS make sense of this? Will AAA performAnce matter more even accounting for age?

Dan Szymborski: It depends!

D: Hey Dan, I greatly appreciate your work.  Curious of your thoughts about Luis Urias going forward as his offense continues to get better with power and average.

Dan Szymborski: He was on my breakout hitters piece this year, so I was already still hopeful!

Dan Szymborski: At least I think he was

Dan Szymborski: Hold on, let me make sure I’m not a big liar

Dan Szymborski: Hurray, I’m not a filthy fibber!

Dan Szymborski: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/szymborskis-2021-breakout-candidates-hitte…

Chris: How much money will the Cubs spend in December-Jan free agency?  Any guesses who they sign?

Dan Szymborski:

Dan Szymborski: I couldn’t find a GIF with the proper quote! lol

Dan Szymborski: Just remember it in you rhead

EvanC: Who do you think is/was the better MLB Catcher – Jason Kendall or JT Realmuto?

Dan Szymborski: Overall? Realmuto

Baseball Guy: OK so the Rockies generally stink, as ZiPS and others predicted. But what do you make of their absolutely insane home road split? I mean, their pitching staff’s ERA is something like a run and a half BETTER at Coors than elsewhere. What is going on?

Dan Szymborski: A blend of Coors and fortune. 40 game home/road splits are REALLy volatile

Cynthia: Do you think we’ll ever see a 108 mph pitch? Velocity continues to rise, and we’ve already seen 105 from Chapman and Jordan Hicks.

Dan Szymborski: I think it’s possible, but you probably need to consult someone with direct expertise on physiological limitations

Dan Szymborski: I’m guessing there’s a ceiling somewhere for people.

Dan Szymborski: But again, I took physics as my science in college. I took biology in 9th grade and my knowledge of the human body is a vague idea of how babies are made and that you shouldn’t drink bottles of poison.

Dan Szymborski: Hell, I full-on legit fainted in 6th grade dissecting an eyeball. Like literally waking up in a wheelchair and the whole class looking at me.

Oddball Herrera: Welcome to the Thursday Fangraphs Chat, in which we enrage Dan by accusing him of making too many fat jokes

Dan Szymborski: I’m so confused by this ongoing gag!

Dan Szymborski: I don’t generally make fat jokes.

Dan Szymborski: And if I did, I consider that one of the rare perks of *being* a fat guy. Gotta have something fun to cancel out the long-term risk of diabetes.

EvanC: Is Carlos Correa underrated as a defender? I was surprised when I was looking at his page and saw his defensive numbers. It feels like no one ever talks about his defense.

Dan Szymborski: I suspect big shortstops get a lot of underrating still, though probably not as bad post-Ripken

Dan Szymborski: but even with Ripken, whose late career SS defensive numbers were terrific, people are more likely to praise him for being smart and positioning than for making amazing plays

Mike Fetters: Jace Peterson is providing the Brewers with some much-needed offense, and the FB/GB rates suggest it might hold some water if there’s a mechanical change behind it. You think he’s finally become an avg everyday starter at 2nd?

Dan Szymborski: I did say he was one of the best NL central FA signings!

Dan Szymborski: though that was more damning with faint praise

Dan Szymborski: I dont’ think he’ s*this* good, but he’s become a very disciplined player, so he’ll sweat out an interesting OBP at times.

Dave Dombrowski: Can I get a top 50 prospect for Jean Segura? Usually I give away prospects so not realllllly sure what they are worth today.  Thanks for your help Dan

Dan Szymborski: Top 50? That’s still a bit of a stretch for me. But you do get the option year.

Dan Szymborski: I do think you can get a good package from a team with a very specific need

Dan Szymborski: But it’s really hard to pry top 50 guys away from teams

Dan Szymborski: Like Yu Darvish didn’t

Dan Szymborski: The Rays did with Snell, but Snell also had a lot more trade value

San Dymborski: Hi Dan, thanks for hosting today’s chat! What advice do you have for statistically-minded people to get into the field? Start writing our own blogs? In-person scouting of local minor league talent? Thank you 🙂

Dan Szymborski: Depends what aspect! The last part you shoudl ask Eric

Dan Szymborski: As for statistics, ask questions about things and try to find the answers.

Dan Szymborski: If you can get the work out there, people will see it

Joe: Any chance the Orioles deal Means now that it looks like he’ll be back after the break, or do they need to wait to re-establish him as healthy and good?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think they trade him

McVittie’s Chocolate Digestives: Name one trade you would love to see for both sides

Dan Szymborski: Hey, I’m not spoiling my usual Let’s Make Some Damn Trades piece

OddBall Herrera: Being the cruel and cynical person that I am, it warms the cockles of my heart to see Canadian teams continue to be shut out of the Stanley Cup by true hockey cultures like Tampa Bay and Las Vegas

Tigers Fan: Why is Akil Baddoo’s FV still a 40 on this website?  Sample size aside he seems to pass the eye test of a player with a current value of a 50 or better?

Dan Szymborski: Eric and Kevin don’t do weekly or monthly updates of the FV, unless I miss something

Dan Szymborski: 40 is a representation of what they gave him in March, not a variable number that rises and falls depending on fortune

Dan Szymborski: I dont’ know what they have planned in midseason updates

Norm: Is Kimbrel to the A’s a real possibility?

Dan Szymborski: It’s certainly a possibility. But even though Pressly’s been excellent, I think Houston’s more likely to land him

Josh R: Do you have a gut feeling about how much time Trevor Bauer is going to be gone or if the Dodgers might cut ties?

Dan Szymborski: Zero.

Dan Szymborski: It’s a horribly messy situation.

Dan Szymborski: Both legally and morally and that’s before you even get to basebally

Dan Szymborski: I only have expertise in the basebally aspects

Freddie Freeman: What’s the Trade Market on me if Atlanta ships me off?

Dan Szymborski: Yeah, that’s not happening

EvanC: Do you believe the Rockies when they say Marquez will not be traded?

Dan Szymborski: Yes

Tigers Fan: What moves would you make if you were the Tigers at the deadline this year?

Dan Szymborski: Low-key ones. THey’ve played solid ball the last two months, but I still don’t thin kthey’re a realistic contender.

Dan Szymborski: I think you still make trades that help you in the future.

Dan Szymborski: Though I don’t t hink you need to go all-in on trading Turnbull or anything

T(win)s: Is it more likely Twins reload for 2022 or 2023?  Pitching in minors suddenly injured so ’23 looking more likely.  Gut feel on trading Berrios?

Dan Szymborski: I think the Twins sit on their hands

Tommy Schmo: Which available CF can the Mets acquire, Can Joc Pederson still play CF?

Dan Szymborski: Joc is a stretch.

Dan Szymborski: Joc is a “hey, we can play him in CF if we’re forced to” guy, not someone you put out there everyday with purpose

Estevão: it’s 2021 and at no point Eric Hosmer really moved the needle for the Padres

Guest: Ever make smoked brisket chili?  It’s amazing

Dan Szymborski: I haev not

Dan Szymborski: I have a full smoker now!

Dan Szymborski: Though it’s hard to just not EAT the brisket

Dan Szymborski: I did cold smoke salmon, but not with the full smoker. Did it in my kitchen with a smoke gun because at the the time there were still ten billion cicadas in my backyard

Jefferson: Speaking of Tellez! I’m still on the #Rowdy hype train. Opportunity in Milwaukee help or hurt him?

Dan Szymborski: It helps, but I think he’s just a role player type

fish: Craig Biggio, Dante Bichette, and Vladimir Guerrero combined for 20 all star appearances. What is the chance their 3 kids reach that?

Dan Szymborski: Pretty good.

Joe: Dan just conceded that Cincy chili is chili, debate over, we can all go home now.

Dan Szymborski: Did no such thing

Estevão: Cubs staff: 4.52 FIP.     Rockies staff: 4.54 FIP

Billy Beane: Because of the current graphics card shortage, during the past 6 months I’ve built a custom water loop in a Lian Li XL 011 with a 5900x CPU and a GT 710 graphics card. I feel like I’ve got an all star team with a position player pitching.

Alcides Escobar’s Mom: My son is back playing in The Show and you haven’t mentioned him Dan. Why?

Dan Szymborski: I HAVE though!

Dan Szymborski:

Guest: I’m not sure if it’s just me but the mobile version of the website is super buggy. Just wanted to put this here in case you can send to the correct people

Dan Szymborski: Like recently or just generally?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t really use FG on my phone and I dont’ do any of the programming

Ryan Breynolds: On Bryan Reynolds: Why do you say he’s tradeable? I’ve also heard there’s no way it happens?

Dan Szymborski: People say a lot of things.

Alex: I’d prefer they didn’t, but should the Pirates decide to trade Reynolds, could they get back a top 15-20 prospect for him?

Dan Szymborski: Not THAT good.

Estevão: Alcides Escobar leadoff hitter. Elvis Andrus batting second. 2021 facts

Yazmanian Granvil: Who’s the more “wait, that dude is still playing?” guy: Matt Joyce or Jordy Mercer

Dan Szymborski: Mercer I think

Dan Szymborski: We’ve already gotten used to Matt Joyce showing up forever

Dan Szymborski: He’s Matt Stairs: The Next Generation

Jim Leyland Palmer: What kind of contract does Semien get this winter? And is he a SS for majority of a multi year deal?

Dan Szymborski: I think he’ll get a robust three year deal or so

Dan Szymborski: No prediction on the position!

fish: Will we have robo-umps by 2025?

Dan Szymborski: I’m actually starting to think that we may.

Yazmanian Granvil: Do you think the MVP award in North American sports has factored in too much of statistics over narrative and team success? In the NBA Jokic won it this year with absurd numbers, but I think the playoffs have clearly shown that CP3 undoubtedly deserved it for turning a doormat-esque Suns team into the favorites to win the finals. Obviously MLB is much different, but thoughts?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t know why I would want to give out an individual award out based on narrative and team success.

Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure why, say, Mike Trout becomes less deserving of accolades because the Angels spent years insisting on playing a done Albert Pujols.

Lorenzo: Are the Cubs sellers?  Do you think they would trade Bryant and/or Baez?  And finally, which teams would be candidates to acquire them as rentals and perhaps negotiate extensions? thanks

Dan Szymborski: I actually think they will be sellers. But more than that, will be article type stuff!

Nate: You think there’s still any shot of the Astros signing Correa long term, even after he enters FA this winter? It’s kind of hilarious to me how outspoken he is about wanting to return, how outspoken the fan base has kind of been with wanting him paid, and how much everyone else in the league seems to hate him…maybe I’m in denial, but I feel like there’s still no better match for him as a FA than Houston. Just needs Click to remember he actually has money to spend now

Dan Szymborski: I do think it’s a possibility

Dan Szymborski: But the Astros probably won’t go to the moon to keep him

Mister Puppy: Rowdy to Milwaukee seemingly takes a Mancini landing spot away. Think Mancini gets dealt and where?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think Tellez is significant enough addition that if someone was going to get Mancini, they’d no longer be interested

Mr Escobar to You: Your ZIPs  lie about me…. I will show you… and your chili recipe is worse than Skyline’s … mic drop

Guest: when you sing the national anthem do you do the “O” part really loud

Dan Szymborski: In my head I do. I’m not a loud fan.

Dan Szymborski: Especially since I’m typically in a press box.

Dan Szymborski: I’ll mutter O to myself, but that’s it

Dan Szymborski: On that note, I have a lot to take care of this afternoon, so we’re doing a tight hour today.

Dan Szymborski: Thanks for coming everyone! Hope to see you all next week.