Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 8/13/20

Dan Szymborski: Hello chatters and chatees

Joe: The Orioles will win 28 or more games. True or false.

Dan Szymborski: EVER? True.

Ben: Kyle Hendricks is good at pitching baseballs

Dan Szymborski: After facing his curve and change, Hendricks fastballs look like Jordan Hicks

Dan Szymborski: Well, Jordan Hicks fastballs. They don’t actually look like Jordan Hicks

Dan Szymborski: Though that would be a really effective changeup: making batters not swing because they think a dude is running to the plate really fast.

LFC Mike: Greetings Dan. Assume you are starting a franchise today, not a Skyline Chile franchise mind you, but an actual baseball franchise. To start your team: Soto, Acuna, Tatis Jr. or  Mr. X (parts unknown, weight unknown).

Dan Szymborski: Probably Tatis because position.

AJ: gotta love Dustin May. I’m a little more uncertain for fantasy. Is his stuff conducive to lots of strikeouts at some point? He seems to not have been a huge k/9 guy at any point yet

Dan Szymborski: I think the strikeouts will eventually come, though I’d really like to see a real change in his arsenal

Chris: Dan let’s get this dance over with so we can both move past it. I’m going to say “Kyle Lewis is awesome” you are going to say “August”. Glad we could do this again this week

Dan Szymborski: I can’t anymore because the season’s nearly a third over!@

Dan Szymborski: We’re almost in June. April is over.

Dan Szymborski: But again, .438 BABIP

Dan Szymborski: Now there’s evdience that he can support a high BABIP

Dan Szymborski: Based on his season so far, ZiPS has his zBABIP for 2020 at .351

Dan Szymborski: But knock off 80 points of BABIP and he’s a 258/325/434 guy with meh defense.

Dan Szymborski: Whicih is better than expectations, but a little more normal

OddBall Herrera: Feeeed Greg Biiiiird, tuppence a bag, tuppence, tuppence, tuppence a bag. Feeeed Greg Biird, that’s what she cries, while   overhead Greg Birds fill the skies.

Dan Szymborski: Greg Birdman!

Dan Szymborski:

Jason N: Is Tatis > Acuña official?

Dan Szymborski: I love Acuña, but I would have taken Tatis before the season

Dan Szymborski: But this is a why not both thing

See! You! Later!: Do you think the Tigers should/will call up Mize after their hot start?

Dan Szymborski: I think if he doesn’t get some real starts this year, the Tigers have failed on thsi point.

Eric: what is wrong with griffin canning? Shouldn’t he be pitching better with his swinging strike rate being so high?

Dan Szymborski: Hard to say as I haven’t dug deeply into Canning. I can pull up his zSO though!

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS only thinks he’s 1.5 Ks down from where he “should” be

Dan Szymborski: The swinging strike rate is above-average, but his contact numbers haven’t been

Daniel: is Jon Gray actually good?

Dan Szymborski: Yes. And he’s been good.

James: Updated probability of a .400 hitter? Favorites?

Dan Szymborski: Haven’t done, but Blackmon has some things going in his favor.

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS is already projecting a 50/50 endpoint of .378 for him.

Dan Szymborski: BABIP across the league being way down — and it’s down for established players too — has really hurt the .400 odds across the board

Jimmy G: How on earth are the Cardinals going to finish the season?  They have played 5 games!

Dan Szymborski: They’re not.

Dan Szymborski: I don’t know exactly what MLB is going to do, but I’d be surprised if the Cardinals play more than 50 games.

danfan69: we look back at players that were underappreciated in their time.  what players in the game today do we underappreciate because of how we understand baseball in 2020?

Dan Szymborski: Depends how you’re defining the word.

Dan Szymborski: I don’t know what we’re doing wrong in 2020, or else I’d not be doing it!

Mrpitcher: who has the best ROS outlook: glasnow, lamet, or marquez?

Dan Szymborski: Marquez

Guest: Thoughts on David Bell this year? Between the lineups and in-game tactics, he’a been terrible IMO. Last night’s 9th was horrid. Related: how can I show the win probabilities relating to his moves to a friend? They’re on here somewhere, I just haven’t found in a clear format I can share.

Dan Szymborski: I’m trying not to establish *any* thoughts about lineups/tactics this year because this one is such an odd one.

Dan Szymborski: It would be like awarding Michelin stars based on which chefs cook the best omelet while sitting in a roller coaster car with a hotplate.

Jon: Is xBABIP a thing?

Dan Szymborski: The concept usually is! I do zBABIP, and I guess you guys can guess where the z is from!

James: What does ZiPS think Lemahieu’s next contract will look like? Which team do you think it will be with?

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS right now says 3/64. He *will* be a 32-year-old 2B, after all

lalo: Do you think Devers is a top 10 bat por the next 5 years ?

Dan Szymborski: Purely as a bat? No.

Eric: At what point do we start to worry about Vlad Jr? He hits the ball on the ground far too often and now that he plays 1B only he brings no defensive value (not that he ever did)

Dan Szymborski: I’m already mildly worried.

Dan Szymborski: For these reasons!

Dan Szymborski: I like the questions that you guys also answer for me! We can do way more that way

James: Alec Bohm just got promoted apparently

Eric: Kevin Gausman, is this turnaround real? Can he be a reliable SP?

Dan Szymborski: I’ve been touting him forever in breakout type pieces, so I’m not off the bandwagon now!

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS had him as nearly the equal of Bumgarner this offseason as a pitcher

RJ: Is Alex Cobb really improved?

Dan Szymborski: I dont’ think he’s truly been healthy as an Oriole. His splitter is looking like it did pre surgery

See! You! Later!: Is it to early to panic about Yelich?

Dan Szymborski: Panic? Too early. Extreme concern? Maybe not.

Dan Szymborski: He’s somehow pulled off the feat of becoming more selective yet making worse contact

James: Is Cronenworth the Padres own Ben Zobrist lite?

Dan Szymborski: It’s so weird, he was like the perfect Ray in playe rtype!

Dan Szymborski: Now, he’s not THIS good, but there was reasonable evidence to think he could be a dynamite role player

Oddball Herrera: If the Mets and Phillies finish behind the Marlins I think relegation is in order

See! You! Later!: Any thoughts on the possibility of Bauer using pine tar or some other mixture to raise spin rate?

Dan Szymborski: As I said in the article, I only know what I can prove.

DJ: If he continues to hit like he has, do you think Nick Castellanos is likely to opt out of the remaining 3-years and $48 million on his Reds contract?

Dan Szymborski: At this point, I think it’s likely, unless the economy looks REALLY awful in 3 months

Kyle: How long did it take Zips to realize Trout was the best player it had ever projected?

Dan Szymborski: He had the best ever rookie projection before 2012 and I believe the most projected WAR for any projection before 2013.

Dan Szymborski: It’s a little tricky in that I didn’t project WAR for most of the 2000s. But I don’t see anyone who comes close.

James: Is projected wRC+ the mean or median of the spectrum of possible outcomes?

Dan Szymborski: It’s a little more complex, but ZiPS is generally the median

Dan Szymborski: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weighted_median#:~:text=In%20statistics%….

Hip Hip Jorge: Why is it so difficult for the internet in general to accept that the Astros cheating is wrong, but also that Joe Kelly is still an idiot

Dan Szymborski: Because the internet is dumb.

Dan Szymborski: Because we are dumb.

dave in slc: I think i am going online today to buy skyline chilli just so I can know what you guys are talking about and have my own opinion on it!

Dan Szymborski: Don’t save me leftovers

James: re: David Bell. I think Baseball Prospectus has a manager rating stat called wRM+

See! You! Later!: Do you think Hanser Alberto can sustain this?

Dan Szymborski: No

Your Name: Can Benintendi turn it around or is he just a bad player now?

Dan Szymborski: I think there’s still hope, but there was already real concern that he wasn’t really a 2019 type of player and he’s just been awful

Jon: Where do I find zBABIP?

Dan Szymborski: I post it at times. We don’t yet have it automated (yet), so it’s not avaialble on a daily basis to the public

cg: Isn’t babip and batting average up an absurd amount this week, like league wide teams are hitting .280 this week or something? i know i checked a few days ago and it was .229, and someone said it was back up to like .238 or something.

Dan Szymborski: Yeah, they had a normal weak in the .290s for BABIP

OddBall Herrera: I don’t know why everyone is so worked up about schools opening, we should’ve gone to uploading information directly into our brains long ago, like they do in that documentary about the matrix

Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: Is the “z” in zBABIP from “chili with beanz” or “chili five wayz”?

Dan Szymborski: Eww

James: Depth Charts has the Padres as the 4th best team ROS???

Dan Szymborski: I’m not seeing what you’re looking at.

Dan Szymborski: In depth charts, the ROS WAR is 13th.

Dan Szymborski: https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Team

Jeff: Should the Cubs be finding more at bats for Hoerner?  I know Kipnis has been good, but will it stunt Hoerner’s growth to not play more?  Hoerner looks like a possible future all star.

Dan Szymborski: If the Cubs run away with the division, I can see him getting more time

Eric: Will the Angles make the postseason this year? I would LOVE to see Trout playing in the playoffs again

Dan Szymborski: It’s tough. 7-12 is a significant hole in a 60-game seaosn

Dan Szymborski: Pujols and Upton have been black holes and the pitching has been mildly barfy

Moose_Bolton: Several players have started their season  in a way that is distinctly unlike their previous seasons. Some have been downright awful. With all of the weirdness associated with this season, are you going to be more or less likely to think that a player’s downturns(or upticks) are real or not? I’ve personally been much more inclined to just go “meh” to everything and I’m not sure that’s the right way to do it.

Dan Szymborski: That’s about my answer too. The circumstances are beyond bizarre.

James: In the Projected Standings 2020 Rest of Season Win%. Maybe it includes SOS?

Dan Szymborski: Unfortunately, I have little to do with that area, so I don’t have any particularly insight into those calculations.

OddBall Herrera: Apparently they are using my street to train new school bus drivers.  If only I had a zombie flash mob ready to go.

Ari: Other than the teams “punished”, what % of teams do you think did some sort of cheating type gaming the system that went unnoticed?

Dan Szymborski: I’m fairly confident most teams push the envelope in one way or another.

Uncle Rone: Romano vs. Bass? 12-team roto

Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure I’d be rostering either in a 12-team, but Romano’s upside strikes me as more itneresting

Sonny: I can already feel myself ascribing meaning to the 2020 performances I was rooting for and dismissing the 2020 performances that did not fit my preconceived notions. I’m bad at being a fan.

Seeforman: The umping seems particularly bad this year, especially the variability of the strike zone. How long til we have robo-umps?

Dan Szymborski: I really hope soon.

Mike: So who’s your pick for the NL East?

Dan Szymborski: Braves

Dan Szymborski: Same as my preseason pick.

Uncle Rone: Where do you see Bohm fitting into the Phillies lineup?

Dan Szymborski: For now, he’s likely picking up some Scott Kingery playing time

Dan Szymborski: Now, Gosselin’s in there too

Dan Szymborski: Given that Bohm hasn’t played above AA, I dont’ expect an instant surge of PA

Dan Szymborski: but I think he’ll get spot starts, a little pinch-hitting

Guest: Do robot umps dream electric strikezones?

Dan Szymborski: Robot umps dream about electric crappy calls

Armadillofury: How worrying is Hiura’s inability to make contact (23% swstk) in the early going?

Dan Szymborski: I think he’s been over-aggressive. He was always going to be aggressive but he’s still a bit raw and I think pitchers have been taking advantage of this

Dan Szymborski: Hendricks did

Dan Szymborski: (Sorry, trying to remember the games I’ve sene him)

Sonny: There should never be a weekday without a day game in 2020. So many of us are homebound Rob!

Guest: When do we print Orioles playoff tickets for games we can’t attend?

Guest: “It would be like awarding Michelin stars based on which chefs cook the best omelet while sitting in a roller coaster car with a hotplate.”

Guest: I would watch that.  Make it happen!

B: Soft ejection for Contreras last night. Are we tossing everyone who ever slams a bat now?

Dan Szymborski: It was a little much

Dan Szymborski: The first base ump should have been making that call, it was a bit bullshit

Jazz: Is Vlad Jr just Yandy Diaz with a better pedigree right now?

Dan Szymborski: ouch

Dan Szymborski: there’s concern, but let’s not go nuts. Vladito is still very young

B: If the Cubs run away with the division will they have to return it and say sorry?

Guest: You played CrossCode yet, Dan?  If not, why not?  Do as I say!

Dan Szymborski: I have not. I’m aware — and I may already own it — but my Steam queue is daunting

Justin: I’m an expansion team in a dynasty league. I traded Kyle Lewis (who’ll be ~28 by the time my farm system gets promoted) and Corbin Carroll for Nomar Mazara and Jarred Kelenic. Did I do OK?

Dan Szymborski: Yes

2B conundrum: C Biggio, L Urias, J Villar or T Edman. who should i ride with for a 12 team keeper?

Dan Szymborski: Biggio probably the safest

Dan Szymborski: I’m still a Urias stanner

jerome: What should the yankees do about Andujar? Was 2018 a mirage or is he that kind of player

Dan Szymborski: It’s so hard because he doesn’t really have a position

Dan Szymborski: It’s not like he had an amazing minor league history either

Salami: How much variance is going to be added to the current crop of minor leaguers projections considering we have a full season with no data?

Dan Szymborski: I’m not going to “add” variance as I have no basis for missed season consequences ofr prospects. I just expect the projections to be worse than usual for a year or two

Dan Szymborski: (and that’s for everybody really)

Go Cougs: Who do you think the worst player in the MLB currently is and why is it Jake Lamb? I think because he went to uw

Dan Szymborski: Chris Davis is so awful that if he had gone to Washington, they’d end their baseball program out of shame.

Sammy: Who do you value more at the moment, Goldschmidt or Rizzo for points leagues? Given that the Cards have 55 games remaining, that certainly inflates his value

Dan Szymborski: Rizzo. The Cards aren’t playing 55 games.

Justin: Luis Campusano the next Wilson Contreras? (Offensively speaking)

Dan Szymborski: It’s a real possibility though a lot can go wrong for a catcher prospect

a dude: For teams that end up playing less than 60 games, do the players still get paid their 60-game salary, or will it get pro-rated?

Dan Szymborski: Honestly? I don’t think MLB’s crossed that bridge.

Dan Szymborski: And they probably don’t want to.

Dan Szymborski: Like players on teams that dont’ reschedule rainouts still get full salary

Dan Szymborski: But we never had to deal with a team suddenly playing 20 fewer games than everyone else.

Dan Szymborski: I mean, they did in the 1800s

Dan Szymborski: but usually, it’s because the team folded while the owner skipped town in a boxcar to escape his debtors.

Dan Szymborski: On that note, it is time for me to depart for another week.

Dan Szymborski: Thanks for joining me, everyone!