Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 8/20/26
| 11:59 |
 Dan Szymborski: Frivolity may now commence.
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| 12:00 |
: Not going to lie I expected Baez 2.0 with PCA. Are there any examples of players that dramatically improved their plate discipline and increased their walk rates like PCA has?
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| 12:00 |
Dan Szymborski: Morandini
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| 12:01 |
Dan Szymborski: Votto wasn’t born the plate discipline god either
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| 12:03 |
Dan Szymborski: Jose Bautista too, but it could also be the rushed nature of being rule 5
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| 12:03 |
Dan Szymborski: I would suspect Sosa too, but we don’t really have out-of-zone data for him
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| 12:03 |
Dan Szymborski: (of course, we don’t for Miorandini either)
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| 12:03 |
Dan Szymborski: It’s kinda weird that Morandini was the first name I thought of
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| 12:03 |
: if the White Sox end up making the playoffs, would they be the team with the lowest pre-season FG/ZiPS playoff odds to make the playoffs? They came into the season at .6% to win the division, 1.2% chance to make playoffs (now at 56.3 and 68.7% respectively)
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| 12:04 |
Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure if it’s THE lowest, but it’s gotta be down there
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| 12:04 |
Dan Szymborski: lemme see if I can glean from a quick glance
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| 12:05 |
Dan Szymborski: 2012 Orioles were less likely
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| 12:06 |
Dan Szymborski: 2012 A’s too
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| 12:06 |
: During Mickey Gasper’s first call-up this year, with a mustache, he had a wrc+ of 70. In his second, with a Van Dyke, he has a wrc+ of 366.
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| 12:07 |
Dan Szymborski: It’s fair
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| 12:07 |
Dan Szymborski: The fact is, for the full bush 1970s mustache as a position player, you need to hit for power
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| 12:08 |
Dan Szymborski: Gasper’s more a plate discipline guy
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| 12:09 |
Dan Szymborski: and facial hair for plate discipline guys should be a little more tailored. He probably needs to thin it up a bit and make it look more like he’s auditioning to be a conquistador
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| 12:09 |
: Hey Dan, thanks for the chat!
I sadly have to ask about the decline of Ha Seong Kim. He has a -29 wRC+ (yes, negative) in 85 PAs (31 games) this year, with peripherals that really don’t paint a much better picture. The once-stellar defense has looked a little shaky by both the advanced stats and the eye test. He’ll be 31 in October and is coming off a slew of injuries. Does this look like the end for him? It pains me to ask because he’s been one of my favorite players to watch over the last few years, but it doesn’t look good. |
| 12:09 |
Dan Szymborski: Injuries are a really complicated thing in this, but that’s not that helpful because, as you say, 31 in October
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| 12:09 |
Dan Szymborski: and one of the many reasons injuries suck is that you sometimes don’t get back
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| 12:13 |
Dan Szymborski: ZiPS is brutal
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| 12:13 |
Dan Szymborski: 
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| 12:13 |
Dan Szymborski: That’s through games of the 15th
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| 12:14 |
: Curious what ZiPS sees for Zack Gelof in 2027. Seems like a hard guy to project given his trajectory so far
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| 12:14 |
Dan Szymborski: ZiPS is pretty solid on him. 248/321/431, 108 OPS+, 3.4 WAR
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| 12:14 |
Dan Szymborski: (these are neutral park projections right now)
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| 12:17 |
: what are the chances Gunnar is just one of those “peaked at age 22” dudes? You’d never project it but we know it happens sometimes.
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| 12:17 |
Dan Szymborski: It’s an actual possibility, and people tend to underrate just how often that actually happens
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| 12:17 |
Dan Szymborski: A lot of guys decline after their early 20s or at least don’t improve, especially if they’re already good
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| 12:18 |
: Last chat I was asked to supply my biometrics.
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| 12:18 |
: I am a reasonable 6’4, but I live in China and the park adjustment is like 7’1. My wife’s catchphrase whenever I smash my head into something is ‘too damn tall.’
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| 12:18 |
Dan Szymborski: If you have a catchphrase about being too damn tall and you’re having injuries related to your height, I think toodamntall is a fair characterization
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| 12:19 |
Dan Szymborski: Now, if you were toogoddamntall, I think you’d have to be at least 6’7 and for toofuckingtall, 6’10
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| 12:19 |
: Better to hold Singer and Manaea in an NL 5×5 or drop and get relievers to protect WRA/WHIP?
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| 12:19 |
Dan Szymborski: In most situations I’d look at the relievers available, especially with singer
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| 12:19 |
: Good morning Dan, Brandon Pfaadt has mostly been terrific since returning from the minor leagues. Do you have any insight as to whether a real change has taken place and he can reach a sustained level of good performances?
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| 12:20 |
Dan Szymborski: It’s hard to say, a lot of it is he’s not allowing much solid contact, but his stuff also hasn’t really changed, as far as I can tell
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| 12:20 |
Dan Szymborski: and I bet if I look up the pitching bot/stuff+, he will have barely moved
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| 12:20 |
Dan Szymborski: Though I’ll certainly take him OVERperforming his peripherals for a change!
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| 12:21 |
: Looking at playoff standings and interested in division rivals where the game with better division odds has worse WS% odds: (Mostly Phillies over Braves). This despite ZiPS seeing a (somewhat) small talent gap between the two. Is it just the Phillies rotation is so much more dangerous when bottled up in a short series?
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| 12:21 |
Dan Szymborski: That is precisely it!
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| 12:21 |
: $40 trillion
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| 12:21 |
Dan Szymborski: Yup
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| 12:23 |
: Thoughts on Wilkinson in SF? DOes he start ROS for SF and what is his long term outlook?
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| 12:24 |
Dan Szymborski: I think he’ll stick in the rotation. Like, what else do the Giants do? Houser doesn’t tell them much for 2027.
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| 12:25 |
Dan Szymborski: And I don’t think he’s less worthwhile to look at than,s ay, Anthony Molina
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| 12:27 |
Dan Szymborski: Now actual outlook, let’s not go nuts, he doesn’t throw very hard at all and his stuff otherwise isn’t crazy good. He’s more going to be a Kirk Rueter type
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| 12:27 |
: I was at th Brewers game Tuesday night. Quite the evening. The 8th got out of hand though. If we can walk a batter without pitching to him can’t we just concede a game without playing the final innings? It almost wasn’t even fun (after awhile) watching them lob balls into home plate.
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| 12:28 |
Dan Szymborski: I mean, teams can choose to forfeit if they want
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| 12:28 |
Dan Szymborski: though with forfeits, you run into an issue telling very highly trained athletes to just give up
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| 12:29 |
Dan Szymborski: But if not for that very big problem, plus the message it sends to fan, forfeits are kinda interesting
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| 12:29 |
Dan Szymborski: Like if you’re down 12-0 in the fifth, it probably makes sense from a game theory standpoint, to forfeit. But to have forfeits be in baseball culture, you have to go back to 1885 and make it a normal part of the game
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| 12:30 |
Dan Szymborski: Like resignations in chess
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| 12:30 |
Dan Szymborski: But I’d be pissed about that as a player
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| 12:31 |
Dan Szymborski: hell, as a little leaguer, i’d complain loudly about the mercy rule, even on the losing side of it
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| 12:32 |
: Hi Dan, is Jose Urquidy capable of sustaining what he delivered yesterday in any material way? Or a one-off?
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| 12:33 |
Dan Szymborski: HOnestly, I’m not sure. He was once capable of that, but he’s been injured for so long that it’s really hard to gauge just how much is still there
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| 12:33 |
: Nick Pivetta has weird contract clauses. If he becomes a free agent this offseason, what would ZiPS give him?
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| 12:33 |
Dan Szymborski: gimme amin
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| 12:33 |
Dan Szymborski: I’l come back to this one
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| 12:34 |
: Do you think the Red Sox would’ve preferred Langeliers to Rutschman if he ahd been healthy?
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| 12:34 |
Dan Szymborski: Probably
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| 12:34 |
: A Micky Morandini reference!?!?
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| 12:34 |
Dan Szymborski: in THIS economy?
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| 12:34 |
: Amazing how a week plus can change the vibes in Queens. Do you sense the Mets can recover next year and make the playoffs?
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| 12:34 |
Dan Szymborski: I think they’ll be fine, and Mets reddit will immediately attribute it to ignoring analytics, even if there’s zero evidence that actually happened
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| 12:36 |
Dan Szymborski: ZiPS would only offer Pivetta 2/32
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| 12:36 |
Dan Szymborski: but it doesn’t fully know the extent of what’s going on his arm
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| 12:37 |
Dan Szymborski: and really, only the padres and his doctor probably know for sure
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| 12:37 |
Dan Szymborski: We’ll see if the Padres give him that conditional option
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| 12:37 |
Dan Szymborski: 1/14?
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| 12:37 |
Dan Szymborski: 1/15?
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| 12:37 |
: Is there any hope for Tovar? Or is dude just cooked and/or could never actually hit?
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| 12:38 |
Dan Szymborski: Now him, I’m more worried about than Henderson, as being one of those peak at 21 dudes
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| 12:38 |
: Give me Ham on 5 and hold the Mayo. Is he the next Jordan Walker post-hype star-ish player?
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| 12:39 |
Dan Szymborski: Han on 5? I’m probably missing something obvious here
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| 12:39 |
Dan Szymborski: does Andrew Vaughn have that nickname? he’s kinda post-hype star-ish and had a hamate injury
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| 12:40 |
: Yhoiker Fajardo seems like a guy a model would think very highly of? Is my assumption correct for ZIPs? Very young for his level while posting great K%, BB%, ans SwStr% numbers and the First Strike % is trending upwards.
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| 12:40 |
Dan Szymborski: I think he’ll do decently
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| 12:40 |
: What’s the closest you ever came to working in an MLB front office? I am just assuming you got some offers
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| 12:41 |
Dan Szymborski: Nothing beyond some idle discussions with teams. Any time there’s a discussion (and theer’s been at least a discussion five or six times over the last 15 years depending on where you draw the line of seriousness), I make it clear that I’m really not interested in working for a team full time
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| 12:42 |
Dan Szymborski: Usually teams that have been getting full 10 year zips and updates for a long time
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| 12:42 |
Dan Szymborski: But if I’m unlikely to take a job, I’m not going to suggest otherwise. I’m happy with what I do and I’m also well suited to what I specifically do
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| 12:44 |
Dan Szymborski: And I don’t really play games with people. When I talked with David about coming to FG, I told David outright that I already had a discussion with other media outlets. And when I talked to ESPN after accepting the FG offer (on my 40th birthday after I half drowned myself), I politely turned down a counteroffer.
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| 12:46 |
Dan Szymborski: I like all my work product being mine, and having the freedom to spend a chunk of workday exploring things that may not pan out, or may not have immediate relevance
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| 12:46 |
: Austin Hedges seems to have found his swing stumbled into some great batted ball luck this season. He’s currently running a wrc+ of 105 which would more than double last year’s 51, which was more than double 2024’s 20. Doubling wrc+ in consecutive seasons has to pretty rare right?
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| 12:46 |
Dan Szymborski: It has to be!
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| 12:46 |
Dan Szymborski: unless it’s like 10 to 25 to 60
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| 12:46 |
Dan Szymborski: There was actually a time where it looked like Hedges might hit a bit, though that seems weird now
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| 12:46 |
: Is this new “First Base Receiving” data going to change how we look at anyone? It seems to me everyone is in a very narrow band so there’s not much separation.
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| 12:47 |
: how (if at all) are you using the new 1B statcast metrics?
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| 12:47 |
Dan Szymborski: Interesting stuff (and I’ve seen raw-er data for several years now), but I don’t believe it’s going to be a real difference maker
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| 12:48 |
Dan Szymborski: I have it as pretty erratic year to eyar, moreso than other defensive data
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| 12:48 |
Dan Szymborski: and the magnitude is small
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| 12:48 |
Dan Szymborski: volatile data of small magnitude is usually going to be stuff in the margins
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| 12:49 |
Dan Szymborski: like ZiPS usually gives Alonso 2-3 runs for 1B scooping, but it’s not like that changes stuff
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| 12:49 |
: So I’m not the only one who randomly thinks about Mickey Morandini a lot? What about Sweaty Joe Borowski?
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| 12:49 |
Dan Szymborski: I actually think about Borowski a lot
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| 12:49 |
Dan Szymborski: His 2007 was the last time people widely tried to claim a shitty closer was actually good because saves
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| 12:49 |
: Would baseball be more fun with more triples?
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| 12:50 |
Dan Szymborski: Absolutely
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| 12:50 |
Dan Szymborski: except for the relatively rare inside-the-park homer, the triple is the best play in baseball
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| 12:50 |
Dan Szymborski: the triple is the normal play with the single greatest uncertainty as to the outcome
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| 12:50 |
: Danimal! Szymborskinator! The Twins are currently in playoff position with a record that’s two games under .500. Is this the first time we wind up with a losing record in the playoffs? And do you correctly think this is an abomination against god and man, or do you, as my casual-MLB-fan friend said, incorrectly think this is “fun”?
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| 12:51 |
Dan Szymborski: It’s both!
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| 12:51 |
Dan Szymborski: White Castle cheeseburgers are awful, but sometimes great in the certain mood
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| 12:51 |
Dan Szymborski: I’m Team Entropy. I like reality being trolling
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| 12:51 |
: Mild/moderate concerns about Acuna? 113 wRC+ this year with seemingly terrible defense
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| 12:52 |
Dan Szymborski: Moderate. I’m a little worried that like Trout a few years ago, he’s crossed the Rubicon and is now in post-superstar territory
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| 12:52 |
: Is the 40 trillion comment a Jeopardy question? If so, what is the amount that legalized gambling has taken from those who are the least able to lose money.
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| 12:52 |
Dan Szymborski: I think a national debt reference
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| 12:53 |
: In a forefeit isn’t it recorded as 5-0 or something? So if you’re down 10-0 in the eighth couldn’t you just tell your guys “we’re competing for run differential tiebreakers in the playoffs?”
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| 12:53 |
Dan Szymborski: I thought 9-90
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| 12:53 |
Dan Szymborski: 9-0
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| 12:55 |
: Bradish or Kirby? Two guys I can’t figure out. Who do you like rest of season?
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| 12:55 |
Dan Szymborski: I still like both guys!
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| 12:55 |
:
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| 12:56 |
Dan Szymborski: I understand the reference, but I’m not sure what player it’s referring to!
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| 12:56 |
Dan Szymborski: there’s no player named Over
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| 12:57 |
: Coming back to the White Sox question, is a 1% playoff team in preseason predictions making the playoffs more than 1 in 100 seasons in aggregate? And if so what does this say about the models? “You can’t predict baseball, Susan?”
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| 12:57 |
Dan Szymborski: Last I checked, no
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| 12:57 |
: Do we have a percentage update on the losing team in the AL playoffs possibility
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| 12:57 |
Dan Szymborski: ZiPS has it about 1-in-4
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| 12:58 |
Dan Szymborski: but that was three days ago
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| 12:59 |
: Eli Willits looking like a dude? (I mean, he was drafted first overall… but still.)
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| 12:59 |
Dan Szymborski: s far so good!
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| 12:59 |
: Ketel Marte, clubhouse cancer? What’s going on there?
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| 12:59 |
Dan Szymborski: People are complex. In the right situation or the right events or the right time, anybody can probably be great or terrible in the clubhouse
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| 12:59 |
: sorry, stepping away to watch the Weird Al tiny desk concert. will be right back.
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| 1:00 |
Dan Szymborski: Al Yankovic is a way superior option to Dan Szymborski, and one that should be taken whenever there’s a choice
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| 1:00 |
: Can you say what teams offered you?
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| 1:00 |
: Like which teams^^
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| 1:00 |
Dan Szymborski: No, those were off the record chats to discuss stuff. Never got close to the point of salary
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| 1:00 |
: I know his defense is poor, but how much value does CJ Abrams lose if he has to move off SS?
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| 1:00 |
Dan Szymborski: Not a ton, it depends how far he has to move
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| 1:01 |
Dan Szymborski: He’s lousy enough at short that he ought to get a pretty good bump at an easier position
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| 1:01 |
: do you consider yourself a fun hating dork?
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| 1:01 |
Dan Szymborski: No, I wouldn’t say that
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| 1:01 |
Dan Szymborski: I’ll occasionally hate fun, but I’ll also occasionally PUSH fun
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| 1:01 |
Dan Szymborski: I’m more of a chaos loving dork
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| 1:01 |
: The ham and Mayo thing was probably about the Orioles 1b/3b. He is doing better lately
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| 1:01 |
Dan Szymborski: ah
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| 1:01 |
Dan Szymborski: forgot about mayo, I was trying to think of a player nicknamed ham
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| 1:02 |
Dan Szymborski: |
| 1:02 |
Dan Szymborski: He HAS been better. I’m still holding out some hope for Mayo
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| 1:02 |
: Oh, Coby Mayo!
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| 1:02 |
: Coby Mayo?
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| 1:02 |
: I’d take sweaty Joe Borowski any day over crazy Joe DaVola
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| 1:02 |
Dan Szymborski: On that note, I have to head out for the week.
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| 1:02 |
Dan Szymborski: Thanks for coming everyone!
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Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.
Thank you Dan! My favorite chaos loving dork!