Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 8/26/19

Dan Szymborski: G’Afternoon!

Dbo: Since you published your article “The Cubs Are Slowly Pulling Away”, the Cubs have gone 5-7. Why do you hate the cubs and why did you feel it necessary to jinx them?

Dan Szymborski: If only I had such powers.

Derek Falvey: How highly should I rate Mitch Garver’s breakout year?

Dan Szymborski: Pretty highly. He’s getting a power boost even for power boosts

CamdenWarehouse: I’m so sorry for your loss, Dan. Galileo seemed like the best of cats.

Dan Szymborski: Thanks! It was a rough week.

Matt: When is the zips prospect list going to happen? Thanks

Dan Szymborski: I was actually going to set it up last week and then other stuff happened!

Domingo German: Wins don’t matter, but I think the Yankees are glad I’ve decided to be very good this year.

Dodgers: If the Dodgers were to lose another WS, would there be anything they could do to outpace the AL finally?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think there’s any extra thing they can do except keep being good

Birds: Ben and Sam on EW last week discussed when we can expect Trout to not be the best player in baseball.  Is there any year in ZIPS that projects somebody higher than him?

Dan Szymborski: Hmm, I can check that fairly easily

Dan Szymborski: Up-to-date ZiPS has Trout’s WAR projection falling to second behind Acuña in 2023, (just ahead of Soto).

Jim Leyland Palmer: Would you value Travis Demeritte and Clint Frazier somewhat similarly? Demeritte walks a lot more, but hits for less power, but likely plays a little better D. Same age, less service time

Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure Demeritte actually plays better D

Dan Szymborski: I’d rate Clint Frazier higher

Bo Knows Salisbury Steak: Dan, have you considered joining the Tiny House Revolution?

Dan Szymborski: Oh lord no

Dan Szymborski: My office alone is like 500 square feet. I don’t want to live in my office.

Dan Szymborski: What would I do with cats and stuff?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think I could fit JUST MY COMPUTERS in a tiny house.

Spider Puig: If Derek Johnson can “fix” Trevor Bauer, how big of a threat would the Reds become in 2020?

Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure he’s “fixable” in that 2018 was always likely an outlier.

Dan Szymborski: But I think he can be a *bit* better

Dbo: According to potbellys website, the highest calorie sandwich on their regular menu is a PB&J clocking in at 1,050 calories. I find this to be one of the more shocking things I’ve ever read

Dan Szymborski: lots of sugar in jelly and presumably peanut butter

Dan Szymborski: perhaps they deep fry it

Dbo: My uber driver told me that a double quarter pounder at mcdonalds is better than In-n-Out, that was one of the hottest food takes I’ve heard in some time

Dan Szymborski: ONE STAR

Professor Hulk: What has hurt the phillies more this season: injuries or inconsistent pitching?

Dan Szymborski: If everyone had been healthy, they would have been better able to deal with the injuries. So I’ll say health

Kosch: What should the Astros do with Reddick?  Does he even make the playoff roster?  Brantley, Springer, Straw?  with Marisnick as the 4th OF?

Dan Szymborski: Honestly, I start phasing him out.

Szyzyszsymbrskiii: What is the purpose of Kershaw’s leg kick?

Dan Szymborski: Some would say velocity over control, but I think it’s to defeat any ninjas that attack him while he’s facing the batter

Dan Szymborski: Now Tyler Anderson, I think he does that to make him hard to hit in MLB the Show

Dan Szymborski: He *always* messes up his timing.

Bork: Andrew Luck to XFL?

Dan Szymborski: Maybe the XFL will let him be Cpt. Andrew Luck on his jersey

Jon: What is a better power stat than ISO?

Dan Szymborski: Depends what you’re trying to do. What information ar eyou trying to extract? Power is a fairly open concept

Dale: It looks like the braves might end up with 3 40-homer guys.  When’s the last time that happened?

Dan Szymborski: Has it? I can think of teams with two 40 homer hitters

Dan Szymborski: Wait, maybe 90s rockies? hold on

Dan Szymborski: Yeah 96/97

Alby: What’s your opinion of so-called open-face sandwiches? Oxymoron?

Dan Szymborski: You’re being robbed of bread.

Surprise Eclipse: How do you go about watching games each day? Do you tend to watch teams or certain players? Or does it just depend on what you want to write about?

Dan Szymborski: It’s all chaos. Interesting game, high-lefverage game, a debut, some other story bit

RationalMLBFan: Following up on your tweet about a pitcher getting a W and L in a suspended game: Could Shohei Ohtani strike himself out? Suppose he’s at bat with a 3-2 count when the game is suspended. In the interim, he is traded to the other team. When the game resumes, Ohtani continues the game for his new team and strikes out the Angels’ PH. Ohtani (batter) and Ohtani (pitcher) are both credited with the strikeout, yes?

Dan Szymborski: I believe they would since it’s not one of the specific counts that are credited to previous batter/pitcher

Eric: Hi Dan. Just wanted to say I’m very sorry to hear about Galileo’s passing.  I lost my dog recently and it’s been a lot harder than I imagined.

Dan Szymborski: Thank you, and I’m very sorry to hear that you’re in the same boat!

Texas Leaguer: Crystal Ball response needed: Manning of Tigers is putting together some impressive results. Swing and misses, low walks, low home runs allowed etc. What % do you think in 2020 Manning can ascend to 1-2 in Tiger rotation.

Dan Szymborski: 1-in-3? The Tiger rotation has *some* highlights and they’re not being particiuarly aggressive about pitcher promotions

California: Dan, I

California: Dan, I’m personally OFFENDED that you think my lunch hour is 9 am!

Dan Szymborski: It’s not my fault you guys exist three hours in the past

Dan Szymborski: SPOILER: LUNCH DELICIOUS

LFC Mike: Dan.. heading into dentist office. Can you please: 1 comment on Zac Gallen so far. 2 make a random comment about how good or bad a sandwich is. 3. Trash Joe West. 4 tell us the best thing you ever got at  Caldor  store. That covers it.😀

Dan Szymborski: Quite polished except for the command issues which I don’t expect to be a thing. I think he has a strong repertoire.

Dan Szymborski: I don’t really like peanut butter in sandwiches

Dan Szymborski:

Dan Szymborski: I don’t remember going to Caldor much, but I remember I got a pair of flip flops there on the way to Adventure World (now Six Flags America) when I was about 19 because the strap on one of my Tevas gave up the ghost

v2micca: I used to be annoyed that fangraphs didn’t seem interested in a fascinating Braves squad.  But seeing the havoc your interest has caused for the Cubs, I’m  going to say carry on.

Cream: How bout them Bravos? Banking miracles while waiting for Dansby and Ender to return… Do you think the rotation is good enough to make the series with LAD competitive?

Dan Szymborski: Well, I think any team is competitive with any team in a short series. I do think the Dodgers have the better matchup and the overall edge.

Magic Kingdome: Without looking anything up, what is your gut estimate for the Padres’ record next year?

Dan Szymborski: 85-77

Dan Szymborski: THAT IS COMPLETELY OFF THE CUFF

Bo: Washington would have to go ____ in their remaining seven games against the Braves to win the division.

Dan Szymborski: and hire a kidnapper to carry away Acuña and Albies

v2micca: If Votto gets healthy in this off-season, is he a good bounce-back candidate for 2020?

Dan Szymborski: OK candidate. He’s getting a bit old to have full bounces

Magic Kingdome: “Their love was built to last, but the house was built too small . . . Tiny House”  Best insurance ad ever

rquills: i’m new to this site. I’m pretty upset i didn’t start using it earlier.

Bo: lots of fat (albeit the healthy kind) in peanut butter = tons of calories

Matty B: Will Austin Nola continue to be a productive major leaguer, or will he regress and end up as a AAA-AAAA type of player moving forward?

Dan Szymborski: I’m cautiously optimistic. His improvement isn’t *just* power and anyone who can fake SS *and* catcher has a very low bar to pass offensively

Magic Kingdome: Has a player been called up this year who was not even in the ZiPS database?

Dan Szymborski: Most definitely!

Dan Szymborski: Hold on

Dan Szymborski: As of midseason, it was 0 hitters and I believe 3 pitchers, but I don’t have those handy

Bork: His father is commish so probably.

Dan Szymborski: The fun of lag is I don’t know what this refers to!

v2micca: Which current active MLB player suddenly announcing his retirement would be the equivalent shock of Andrew Luck hanging up his cleats?

Dan Szymborski: OK, wouldn’t be Trout

Dan Szymborski: Since Trout’s better relatively than Luck

Dan Szymborski: Think of a mid-career star who is a star, but not obviously best at his position.

Dan Szymborski: But who is also famous

Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure Rendon is as baseball-famous as luck is football-famous

Dan Szymborski: Maybe Mookie Betts?

Dan Szymborski: Noah Syndergaard?

Texas Leaguer: Crystal Ball Da my.

Use Emojis!: Don’t let Dan take them away from us!

tan mom: sorry about the loss of Galileo, take care

Texas Leaguer: Crystal Ball Danny Boy, Do you see the Bird Flu resigning Ozuna or is the youth movement finally arrived with guys like Ozuna, Molina, Carpenter, Wainwright finally showing their batteries are not replaceable?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think they’re going to re-sign Ozuna

Xolo: Renfroe hit 27 home runs in the first half and only 4 in the second. Is this a blip or has the league caught up to him real quick?

Dan Szymborski: I think it’s a blip

Mind of Maddon: How valuable is it to fit a hitter to a park? A flyball hitter in a park with short fences, etc? Are park factors just not that individually impactful, or are there players with significant enough differences between their wrc and their wrc+?

Dan Szymborski: It can add a few runs here and there. It’s generally not massive

Magic Kingdome: In Hawaii, your chat starts before breakfast — I mean, I have not even opened the can of spam yet.

Dan Szymborski: You just need to use an ET clock and just know that daytime is PM

Jon: Follow up on ISO… What information should I extract?

Dan Szymborski: But what are you trying to do?

Cowboy Joe West: For the low low price of 25 cents you too can get my debut CD BLUE COWBOY

Cream: Who should win an award? Player 1: 3.7 fWAR / 5.1 bWAR vs. Player 2: 4.1 fWAR / 4.3bWAR

Dan Szymborski: Probably the first one, but I’d want to know a lot more!

Slapshot: Can we still really call Anthony Rendon underrated when he’s about to put up his third straight 6+ WAR season?  Or is he going to finally be properly rated now that he’s about to hit free agency?

Dan Szymborski: It depends on who is doing the rating

Dan Szymborski: If you talk about fandom reputation, I think he’s still underrated

Ryan: Assuming everyone was equally rested (which wouldn’t be the case, but lets pretend), who would the Cubs start in a wild card game?

Dan Szymborski: I would assume Lester

Kyler: What kind of contract do you think Josh Donaldson gets this offseason? He’s old but has been healthy and mashing this year.

Dan Szymborski: I think he gets a three-year deal for a reasonable amount. Maybe something like Santana originally got from Phillies

Jack the Ripper: Is a hot dog a sandwich?  Yes or no

Dan Szymborski: No, as we have answered

Dbo: At what point do we make the NL Central stop playing baseball and instead make each team send 2 players to an island to battle it out Hunger Games style to decide the Division winner?

Dan Szymborski: Team Entropy!

Dan Szymborski: I still want there to be a 9 way tie that MLB settles by ONE MASSIVE GAME IN WHICH EVERY TEAM PLAYS A WHOLE INNING AGAINST EVERY OTHER TEAM

Syndergaardengnomes: Bryce Harper is the obvious Luck comp…  Former overall #1, huge hype ahead of time, occasionally been great, but maybe not as great as the expectations…

CamdenWarehouse: Is not the best at his position a fair comp for Luck given the relative importance of QB? Luck had to be one of the 12-15 most valuable guys in the league

CamdenWarehouse: OK, the names you gave seem fair

Freddie Kitchens: Should Austin Seibert or Greg Joseph be the kicker for the Browns?

CamdenWarehouse: never mind

Dan Szymborski: I have no opinion on that!

Mini Turtle: Is Alex Rodriguez somehow I’m better PR shape than Derek Jeter?

Dan Szymborski: It’s really weird how they’ve kinda flipped.

Jenny: Saw a list that suggested Luck was one of the thirty best QBs in the super bowl era up to age 29. But there has been about 1600 starting QBs seasons and almost 25000 starting hitter seasons in the world series era so that like just as good as being a top 450 hitter through age 29!

brad: Dan, going into 2020, would you say valuing Lance Lynn as a high floor #2 who is a low injury risk?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think that’s far off

E: Open face sandwiches can go to hell. Too much work to eat.

ScottNC: Probably the most impressive thing about Yordan Alvarez is that opponents seem to be pitching around him. Do you see that happening in the playoffs?

Dan Szymborski: I’d pitch around him

Cove Dweller: Pavement released “Feed em to the Lions (Linden)” the year Aaron Judge was born.  Coincidence?

Gub Gub: What’s the most British word you can think of?  Mine is “indubitably”

Dan Szymborski: Pronouncing innovative with the emphasis on the first syllable

Dan Szymborski: THe first time I heard INN-o-vuh-tiv I wanted to flip over a table

Klews: What do you make of James Paxton’s demolition of the Dodgers? Anything you saw that particularly stood out that could be a sign of change for him?

Dan Szymborski: Hard to tell since I couldn’t tell who any of the teams were this weekend.

Dan Szymborski: OK, that’s mean

Dan Szymborski: Just from my memory, he looked like he was throwing a lot of curves, but changes aren’t that huge generally

Dan Szymborski: I’d have to dig into it more to answer this

Bo: Is this a year that being the #2 seed in the NL wouldn’t necessarily be a bad thing? As the Braves, I’d rather face the NL Central champ than the WC winner in a short series.

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think it’s a big deal either way

Dan Szymborski: You lose home field and you’re not *certain* to end up getting the nats

Aaron Judge: I have awakened. For all the DJ/Gio/Tauchman stuff (and Gleyber rising), that team with me in the lineup and alive is a different animal, would you agree?

Dan Szymborski: Well, you are a living beast mode.

Dan Szymborski: If I voted in that award, I’d give Boone Manager of Year

Klews: Baseball is so weird

Ryan: What did you think of the players weekend jerseys?

Dan Szymborski: ZIM SMASH

Freeman: Freddie Freeman…

Dan Szymborski: …a rabbi and a priest go into a bar.

Dan Szymborski: They are friends and are having lunch.

Klews: Is a pop tart a ravioli?

Dan Szymborski: You could argue it’s a dessert ravioli and the crust is a weird sort of pasta dough

Cream: How about Rizzo as an analogue to Luck? He’s about the same age, good not great, but probably has better name recognition than many others with comparable production (like I think Luck may have garnered). Maybe Sonny Gray if you wanted a pitcher?

Dan Szymborski: Sonny Gray to little

Mickey Callaway: Has anyone looked into why bullpens are trash this year? Should starters not be pulled as early as we thought?

Dan Szymborski: It’s possible, but you also have more offense which makes every X run lead a little riskier

Dan Szymborski: There’s a relationship between league offense and league relief WPA

E: Is a chili dog a sandwich? What if it has beans?

Dan Szymborski: Why would you say such a thing? a chili dog with beans isn’t chili or a sandwich

Matt W: Sending you love for Galileo from you and my beloved cat, Cat Harvey. Cats are the best, and it sounds like you had a great one.

Dan Szymborski: Thanks, I appreciate it! Galileo was a terrific cat

Johnny: Yeah I thought the point of making it all black and all white, was that they were going to decorate the unis or something interesting?

Dan Szymborski: Why don’t they just let players where whatever they want?

Dan Szymborski: You don’t really NEED baseball players to match as long as everyone knows what team they’re on

Dan Szymborski: Nobody ever went shirts and skins to play wiffleball

Fun article idea: Would you consider doing a ZIPS what if article? Like Griffey’s career after 1999, Pedro after 2000, Nomar after 2000, Eric Davis, etc…

Dan Szymborski: I’ve done them from time to time

Dan Szymborski: I know I did eric davis before

Dan Szymborski: I’ll have to find it, it’s not easy to find

Indians: How much weaker is CLE without the good version of Ramirez? He may return but likely not full strength. Do they hold on anyway, but present as a weaker opponent?

Dan Szymborski: I think they hold on to a playoff spot, but they’re weaker now that J-Ram remebers to not suck

Ryan: Please don’t talk about Rizzo retiring, especially after you already jinxed the Cubs with your pulling away article

Alex Cora and Dave Dombrowski: What should we do this offseason

Dan Szymborski: How about SOMETHING?

E: Have you ever outed someone for being an astronomy enthusiast?

Dan Szymborski: CANCEL TYCHO BRAHE

Greg: Strasburg as Luck? That smelled like a fit to me at first but I’m not sure anymore

Cat Latos: MEOW MEOW I AM CAT.

Dan Szymborski: It’s something hard for someone who has covered the game so closely for a long time to know exactly HOW a player is considered in wider baseball fandom

Johnny: I’d love a deep dive into Jimy Wynn actually.  I can’t find the dimensions of Colt Stadium from the 60’s anywhere…  Although I might just be an awful researcher.

Dbo: Alright Dan, I’m going to pick up Potbellys for lunch, my condolences for your loss last week.

Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: Are you worried about keeping up with the cutting edge of baseball knowledge in your older years? That someday a 30 year-old in a vintage Fortnite tee who still flosses unironically is going to post disparaging comments about you for clinging to WAR when teams have long switched over to predicting player success using a combination of genetics and time travel? That your Excel-based analysis will become redundant to an octopus with a slide rule?

Dan Szymborski: I think it’s the way of the world that everyone becomes outdated

Dan Szymborski: To let the new generation have their way.

Dan Szymborski: I hope I can, but there’ salways a chance I end up out of touch

Dan Szymborski: I’d like to finish my career someday as more of an advisory role to young writers

Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: Fangraphs meetup at Skyline? Early-bird registration gets extra spaghetti?

Dan Szymborski: Count me out

Number’s rights activist: Why do letters get capital and lower case but not numbers? THIS IS AN OUTRAGE!!! I DEMAND YOU MAKE A FORM OF LOWER CASE NUMBERS IMMEDIATELY

Dan Szymborski: Anything is lower case if you can write small enough

Soxtober2020: Will you be challenging Craig Edwards to the octagon after getting the prized “Best Friend of the Pod” distinction on the latest Sox Machine?

Dan Szymborski: DID JOSH BETRAY ME, I”M POISONING HIS GORDITA DORITOS LOCO CRUNCHITO

E: “I’d love a deep dive into Jimy Wynn actually” what an interesting sentence

Eric: The 1973 Braves had 3 players with 40 homers.  Aaron, Davey Johnson and Darrell Evans

Paxton: Paxton has a 3.5 ERA and is averaging more than 6 IP in August. It seems like his knee hurts less, basically.

J: Why would the Cubs start Lester? I get that he’s a post-season veteran but you can argue he shouldn’t even be in the playoff rotation right now.

Dan Szymborski: Inertia. I should note he essentially has the same FIP as last year

Justin Verlander: I’m not showing any signs of aging, right? I’m just getting better and better, agree?

Dan Szymborski: Seems the case

Johnny: Question: If Jeff Bagwell played in the new Yankee Stadium instead of the Astrodome… would he have hit 940 home runs?

Dan Szymborski: It’s nto THAT much

Dan Szymborski: Now, if he played only the Orioles…

Dan: Wait, Americans emphasize the first syllable of innovative too. It’s just a long vs short A distinction

Dan Szymborski: Yeah, correct, I described it wrong

Dbo: I’m not a conspiracy theorist but it is interesting that this season has the most multi-HR games ever, do you think the balls could possibly be juiced?

Dan Szymborski: NEVER AND AAA IS A COINCIDENCE

Jordan: does every fanbase of a rebuilding turned contender team whine like braves fans about not getting enough attention for the team?

Dan Szymborski: There are two things that every fan believes

Dan Szymborski: That their favorite team does not get the proper respect

Dan Szymborski: and that their bullpen is the worst ever and they’d win 20 more games with a better closer

Syndergaardengnomes: So sorry to hear about Galileo…

Dan Szymborski: Thanks! Rough week.

Guest: Cleveland recommendations?

Dan Szymborski: Go to the one in OHio

Dan Szymborski: Or if you don’t mean the city, Reggie

Bigfoot Erotica: Don’t have a question, just want to say I was very sorry to hear about your loss.

Dan Szymborski: Thanks! I’ts appreciated.

Johnny: nvm that…. ballparks dot com has Colt Stadium Dimensions

EL: What should the Giants do with Posey next season?

Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure they really have much to do worthwhile than to keep playing him and slowly curtailing his workload.

Dan Szymborski: Until Bart pushes on the door

Ryu: In Jaffe’s chat last week, he suggested (with good reason) I was likely to win the CYA because my ERA was like 1.6, despite others leading in WAR. But the Yankees didn’t want any part of that. Would Scherzer have a good shot if he returns soon?

Dan Szymborski: If writers move off Ryu, I think degrom gets more votes than scherzer thanks to playing time

DJ Tanner: How bad is the Dodgers trading of Yordan Alvarez for Josh Fields going to look in 10 years?

Dan Szymborski: It’s not looking like one of their best results for sure!

Dan Szymborski: Though Alvarez wasn’t an elite prospect really at the time

Dbo: When will you give us your take on melts, do I need to do a breakdown and post it on youtube?

Dan Szymborski: You’re being robbed of bread

Dan Szymborski: and you’re losing the benefits of the sandwich form factor

Dan Szymborski: On that note, it is time for me to head off for another week! Thanks for joining me everyone!