Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 9/10/20

Dan Szymborski: Let’s get this party* started!

Dan Szymborski: Disclaimer: There may not be an actual party

Travis: SSS or has Acuña taken the next step?

Dan Szymborski: I’m optimistic. Dude’s 22!

Dan Szymborski: Especially amazing given where he was after the first week

Peter Thomas: What do we think about Zach Davies? .248 ERA, 4.29 xFIP, 4.28 SIERA

Dan Szymborski: He’s more or a less an inning-eater. Sometimes ERA will beat the FIP

Scotty: As I was reading your ZIPs time warp on Pujols, it got me wondering. It’s been long rumored than he is older than he reports. Lets say he’s 2 years older than is reported, how dramitcally would that effect ZIPs expected career numbers?

Dan Szymborski: Quite a bit, obviously, but not so much that it wasn’t still a dramatic dropoff.

Peter Thomas: Re: Davies. Are advanced stats just too focused on strikeouts and have trouble with guys who put the ball in places where it’s hard to hit? Or has Davies just been really lucky?

Dan Szymborski: It’s not that advanced stats were “chosen” for a particular focus on strikeouts; the evidence drove the development of the stats.

Dan Szymborski: And ERA hasn’t changed to be as predictive as FIP. Nor has BABIP become less volatile in recent years.

Dan Szymborski: (With the usual knuckleballer caveat)

Your Name: Do you trust Keegan Aiken with a double start in week 1 of fantasy playoffs, or would you rather have a single start of Morton or Eflin?

Dan Szymborski: I’d rather go with Morton unless you *really* need to gamble and get multiple starts

Turkey Jizz: So, Mize and Pearson suck, right?

Dan Szymborski: They should be traded to the Orioles to teach them a lesson!

Johnny Walker: Dan, give me a spicy political take so I can screenshot it, post it on Twitter, and distort its context to fit my liking and agenda.

Dan Szymborski: Vote me for local office and I will make you pay!

Dan Szymborski:

Guest: The thing with calling Van Wagenen “Brofist”– it feels personal. Have you had unpleasant interactions with him yourself, or is he just someone that, when you look at him, it makes you feel better to call him Brofist?

Dan Szymborski: Twitch culture has just destroyed my brain that most of my thoughts involve video game related memes

Dan Szymborski:

Balls in the dirt: Have to play one in my MI spot next week.  Who do you play out of Gleyber, Semien, Dylan Moore?  Thanks!

Dan Szymborski: Gleyber looks healthy!

YardGoat: Cat update please. Also, have you ever had a Bengal cat? Seem like fun pets

Dan Szymborski: I have not had a Bengal cat.

Dan Szymborski: Justinian’s on my office couch having a bath. Cassiopeia was here but she had words with Justinian and stomped off. Constantine was sleeping in the spoon in the cat tree in one of the upstars rooms last I saw. And last I saw Mercutio, he was hiding under a bed because he saw the landscaper through the living room window.

Me, A Dumb Person: Can you explain how pitch movement is measured?  Looking at the Pitchf/x measurements and the Statcast measurements, there’s a lot of difference.  Also, I understand that the Pitchf/x measurements are on a coordinate system, which gives negative values, but shouldn’t every pitch have negative vertical movement with that system?  Sorry if this is too convoluted for a chat.

Dan Szymborski: It’s relative to the trajectory due to gravity.

Dan Szymborski: http://baseball.physics.illinois.edu/Movement.pdf

Dan’s dry, flavorless chili: Hello, yes, I have arrived I am here to disappoint you

Dan Szymborski: I do not know you because my chili is a feast of simplicity and complexity, combined into mouthful after mouthful of culinary ecstasies.

Appa Yip Yip: The Blue Jays riding that elite bullpen into the playoffs, just how we drew it up in spring.

Jeff S.: Is Cronenworth a lock for NL ROY? What do you expect from him offensively going forward?

Dan Szymborski: Seems strongly likely. I don’t think someone like Gonsolin or Devin Williams has the ability to stop him.

Dan Szymborski: Cronenworth has too much goodness baked into the 2020 cake.

Dan Szymborski: I don’t *think* I have a vote this time around, but I’d vote for Cronenworth.

Dan Szymborski: As for the future, it’s cheating to get the projection early!

Zach: Has Corbin Burnes new pitch mix changed his long-term outlook in ZiPS? Guy looks like he figured some things out.

Dan Szymborski: I *should* note that ZiPS had him with a 3.67 FIP coming into the season, so it was never off the hype train for realz

Dan Szymborski: The mix not so much, but the uptick of velocity will help. But in the end, performance is still the biggest deal.

Dan Szymborski: And his performance has been damn spiffy

Dingo Dan Dan: Keeper league – With two weeks to go, up by .5 in roto with fairly conventional 5×5 cats – have nearly perfect number of points at pitching but batting is suffering. Would you deal Sonny Gray/Seth Lugo/Canha for Nelson Cruz/Matt Olson/2021 draft pick. This is dynasy league with 25 person keepers.

Dan Szymborski: I think I’d do that in your situation.

dont you know: even with cano’s recent slump, what are your thoughts on his very good year so far?

Dan Szymborski: It’s good to see the rebound from 2019. I’m still not sure I want to see him playing defense at 2nd through 2023

Brewz: Should I be worried about Luis Urias at all? Grisham and Davies are tearing it up in San Diego and I don’t feel great.

Dan Szymborski: I’m not worried. It’s not like he’s been bad or anything when healthy

Jack: Any chance we can get pCRA integrated into Fangraphs? More predictive YoY than SIERA

Dan Szymborski: Gotta talk to Apples!

Guest: Hey Dan!  Any thoughts/idea what the plan for Wander will be in 2021?  Held down until the super 2 deadline and then promoted?

Dan Szymborski: I literally have no idea at this point. The whole 2020 weirdness has thrown off my gut feelings, aided by tea leaves and talking with people, on stuff like this

Appa Yip Yip: The team I cheer for is chock full of young, fun, talented players so why am I jealous of other teams’ young, fun, talented players?

Dan Szymborski: Grass is always greener!

mike: do you think the yankees can still legitimately win the ws?

Dan Szymborski: Sure. Any team can in this playoff format.

Bambi: My mom won’t let me out of my room to join the Dan Szymborski chat. Call child services.

Dan Szymborski: I think they take kids away from being explosed to my dumbassery

Cat Latos: I am a cat, latos

Derek: How many hours of CK3 have you played so far?

Dan Szymborski: 20.7 hours

Dan Szymborski: The lack of being able to pick any date is going to hurt its replayability for me in the long run.

Dan Szymborski: I liked to start around interesting historical things.

Dan Szymborski: But the game says “remember how you could start on 100,000 different dates in CK2? OK, now you can start on 2.”

Dan Szymborski: And I don’t mean “get four more dates as part of paid DLCs.” THe lack of this functionality really hurts the game for me.

Dan Szymborski: So I can’t see this game matching the 800 hours that CK2 got.

Philip: Is there anyway to make the 3 year zip projections updated daily and how has Austin Nola’s season effected his?

Dan Szymborski: Not really at this time.

Blue Morpho: Would you rather lose 19-0 or 29-9?

Dan Szymborski: 29-9. At least someone on the team did something.

Dan Szymborski: A forfeit score is only 9-0!

Greatjon Humber: Also, your cat names sound like the characters participating in a weird one-off Sandman story.

Dane Szymborski: What is a typical weekday Dan breakfast?  I bet it involves some sort of elaborately prepared eggs.

Dan Szymborski: I don’t typically eat breakfast.

Dan Szymborski: Eating early in the day tends to disagree with me.

Dan Szymborski: I don’t usually eat anything until noon at the earliest and probably half the time, not until 3 or 4 in the afternoon.

Bill G: Hi Dan;  The Fangraphs statistics are awesome!!!  One complaint – the names used across various screens can be different.  Example – Urshela is Giovanny on some screens, Gio on others.  Consistency would be helpful for those of us who pull the files and use the names for the search!  Please pass on to the appropriate person.  Thanks!!!

Dan Szymborski: Yeah, there are some issues with consistency we’ve been trying to stamp out.

Your Name: What is CK3

Dan Szymborski: https://store.steampowered.com/app/1158310/Crusader_Kings_III/

Dab: Kris Bryant forgot to wear his elbow guard to a PA and got hit in the elbow. He then missed last night’s game due to said elbow. On a scale of 1-10 how 2020 is this?

Dan Szymborski: 5 or so. At this point, these are just run of the mill 2020 Things

mike: regarding cano, do you think he makes it to 3k hits

Dan Szymborski: I think so.

Appa Yip Yip: You Orioles have a legitimate shot at supplanting the hated Yankees for the eighth playoff spot. No question, I just think that would be rad.

Dane Szymborski: What is the typical Dan brunch/lunch?

Dan Szymborski: Sandwich

Dan Szymborski: maybe an egg

Dab: Favorite hot sauce?

Dan Szymborski: Just for basic general stuff, good ol’ Crystal. But I like other hot sauces on different things. I like Woodberry Kitchen’s Snake Oil on potato things, Jolokia 10 on hot dogs, and Bibigo gochujang on a shocking nubmer of things

Dane Szymborski: CK3 is that kind of funny but less funny than you expected Chris Rock rap parody movie from the 90s

HireJoeMorgan?: Where do I file as a conscientious objector to bullpenning and being drafted into one?

Dab: Is bacon a french fry?

Dan Szymborski: No you vultures!

James: The Padres this year are on pace for 37 wins, 2nd best in MLB, and 100+ in a regular 162 season. In that scenario, they would have only secured a 1 game wild card spot! What can you do to catch the Dodgers next year? Swap out a good position for another superstar? Build bench depth with overqualified bench players?

Dan Szymborski: I think you go for bench depth and hope to match the Dodgers in lack of downside. THe team has faltered before.

Dan Szymborski: It *is* unfortunate that they play in that division. If you read my piece talking about the Padres recently (I’m not sure which one, I think Clevinger), ZiPS currently sees the Padres as second best team in the NL based on the players teams have under contract for 2021

Appa Yip Yip: Middle relief performance is largely a black box of educated guess work, but who from the Jays bullpen do you think is legit and who is just having one of those random reliever seasons?

Dan Szymborski: We all live in the Romanoian Empire.

Derek: I want nothing more in life right now than for the Orioles to make the playoffs over the Yankees in 2020.

Dan Szymborski: You should wish for that but you get to see it while on a pile of gold bars that you own

Greatjon Humber: Do you know if statcast is going to update OAA during the season?

Dan Szymborski: No idea. Best thing would just be to ask Petriello or Willman or Tango.

Guest: What woud zips project lebron to hit if he played in mlb?

Dan Szymborski: Lack of information!

padre: davies or paddack ros

Dan Szymborski: Paddack

Pat’s Bat: I am in a 10 team H2H.  Not a single Pirates hitter is owned.  Anyone worth picking up for their 9 games next week?

Dan Szymborski: In light of the team’s sub .650 OPS I would suggest that a LOT of Pirates hitters are owned.

Dan Szymborski: More seriously, nobody on that roster excites me right now

Dane Szymborski: My fantasy season is shot due to Verlander and Clevinger. At this point, do I (1) do everything I can to finish 7th instead of 9th, (2) target particular categories where I can spite my enemies, or (3) pick up random guys who are now semi-regulars on bad teams just to amuse myself?

Dan Szymborski: Amusement is an important part of life.

Dan Szymborski: Also take into consideration if your league has a particularly mean penalty for being last

Jazz: Is Ryan Mountcastle here to atone for the sins of the Chris Davis contract?

Dan Szymborski: It’s nice to see the Orioles have finally (mostly) stopped playing Davis

Nathan: Have you done a reverse time warp for Ichiro? Some other ideas: Don Wilson, Babe Ruth the pitcher, a few more years of Roberto Clemente, Dickie Thon

Dan Szymborski: I did one for ESPN some years ago and I hate to recycle material

Dan Szymborski: https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/16206897

Dan Szymborski: For Roberto, I have a real resistance to doing these for players who died.

Dan Szymborski: Especially when it’s someone recent enough that they still have people that cared about them around.

Dan Szymborski: Which is why you’ve never seen a Fernandez or Taveras

Dan Szymborski: Babe Ruth might be fun.

Dan Szymborski: So would Thickie Don

Dan Szymborski: Wilson kind of in the same category as the others above. Munson too

viceroy: It seems like parkfactors on this site are only up to date through 2018. Are there more current ones posted somewhere?

Dan Szymborski: There’s a bit of a housekeeping foible.

Dan Szymborski: You can actually change the year in the URL and get 2019 and 2020.

Dane Szymborski: Which player wins your “barely on my radar to begin this weird season but hey he might be legitimately really good now” award?

Dan Szymborski: Hosmer maybe? Though I’m not convinced that this approach will keep for sure yet

Dane Szymborski: Two current GMs invite you to dinner. It is not a business-related meal, just to shoot to the breeze.  Who are the two you most want it to be?

Dan Szymborski: Bridich and Moore, in the hopes that it’s awkward

LLCoolJ: MLB The Show 20, OOTP 20, of RBI Baseball 20?

Dan Szymborski: Hard to pick as those aren’t really the same thing

Morbo: Dan, I noticed that despite my request that you move your chat an hour later so that I can participate, you have failed to reschedule the chat.

Dan Szymborski: I DON’T RESPOND WELL TO THREATS…OR QUESTIONS…OR COMMENTS…OR HELP…OR FEELINGS

Morbo: You left me no choice. I am feeding my toddler skyline chili cheese fries and have told him that they are a nacho sandwich.

Dan Szymborski: Well, you’ll be explaining that to family services!

Sharp: Have you ever done a Brandon Webb time warp? In how many simulations does he make the Hall of Fame?

Dan Szymborski: I have not, though I provided the data for Zach Buchanan recently for an article talking about Webb.

Dan Szymborski: I’ll probably revisit him at some point. I hate recycling material and even if it’s material I haven’t actually used, it makes me feel like I’m phoning it in

GSon: The following commented threat has at it’s core your need to help with feelings.. Now don’t respond !

Dan Szymborski: Of note, I may be banned from Wikimedia’s mailing list before next time we meet!

Derek: Spiting one’s enemies is also an important part of life!

Dan Szymborski: Absolutely true.

Guest: Media narratives are that the Dodgers are historically good, the Padres are the most fun team in baseball, and the Yankees are collapsing.  Are the Rays not fun to talk about?

Dan Szymborski: Just ignore narratives. Roll your own!

Morbo: “I DON’T RESPOND WELL TO THREATS…OR QUESTIONS…OR COMMENTS…OR HELP…OR FEELINGS” what about berating, or soul crushing sarcasm, or familial disappointment, or bribery?

Dan Szymborski: Those are cool.

Dan Szymborski: “The ability to offer an opinion on proceedings with no effective vote or representation in the proceedings is about as good as a fart in the wind. I’d prefer the WMF keep its flatulence to itself.”

Dan Szymborski: This is what gets you in trouble on a wikimedia mailing list.

Dan Szymborski: I am now subject to special moderation before any of my messages are seen.

Derek: Why isn’t Devin Williams’ “changeup” called what it is: a screwball?

Dan Szymborski: The thing about pitches is that bright lines around them are kind of a myth.

Dan Szymborski: You could argue that a circle change is a hard screwball.

Dan Szymborski: OK, that sounded a little more peppery than I intended.

Childish Giambino: Is it possible that the playoff odds for the Cardinals and Marlins are too low?  I understand the physical/mental toll playing so many games in so few days takes, but doubleheaders have been proven to split more frequently than would be anticipated by teams’ talent level.  I would assume that would help a team like the Marlins, who likely just need to stay at .500 to clinch a playoff spot.

Dan Szymborski: But does that hold true for a FLURRY of doubleheaders?

Dane Szymborski: When was your awakening to OBP over AVG?

Dan Szymborski: Reading James as a kid. I never really had a BA over OBP period of much length becuase I got my first Abstract when I was 7

Ignatius: While your embrace of the autocratic privileges your stature as moderator of this plebeian exchange is commendable I must say that I believe your fiberless chili would play hell on my valve. Can not recommend. Good day.

Dan Szymborski: I don’t make chili to move your bowels, I make it to explode your taste buds!

Dan Szymborski: I have to admit, interacting with Bill James/Peter Gammons has been my favorite thing about Twitter. Those are the two writers I wanted to be as a kid as I was realistic to know I was not going to play major league baseball

Morbo: I’ll shall change my tactics then. If you change the time of the chat I shall name my firstborn after you.

Morbo: (No one tell Dan that I already have a child and can’t actually rename him)

Dan Szymborski: OK, done.

Dan Szymborski: The time was not specified, so enjoy the 12:01 PM chat next week! And you *can* rename a kid.

Dan Szymborski: I await receipt of the name change to Daniel John Szymborski Morbo

Giodude: How long does it take to run ZiPS? Like if you were to simulate the 2021 season based on current rosters/performance.

Dan Szymborski: A few hours. Making baseline depth chart stuff needs some manual work

Hard screwball: Hi Dan I like your hat. Also what happened to the dbacks and how much has their 2-3 year outlook changed?

Dan Szymborski: I dont’ think the trajectory’s really changed all that much, it’s just that 2020 kinda sucks

The Ghost of Bobby Thigpen: Is it bad that at this point, I would trust Dunning over Cease in a playoff game?

Dan Szymborski: I hope it isn’t because I feel the same.

Not Evan: Is there a polite way to tell the guy in your fantasy league that all his trade offers are terrible and it just annoys you to keep hearing them?

Dan Szymborski: Nonstop counter-proposals that you never agree to but simply change with every exchange.

Your Nam: Dan’s petty enough to actually list it as a 12:01 chat too

Dan Szymborski: You call it petty, I call it breaking the wheel!

Morbo: Last week I specified a time. 1:00 pm easter time

Dan Szymborski: Not part of our agreement forged in blood just now.

Bighen: If Steve Cohen is able to wrap up the purchase and get approved as the new Mets owner do you think the current FO and manager makes it past a courtesy exit interview or anything? I can’t see what leg Bvw would have to stand on in addition to new ownership often wanting to bring in their own staff etc.

Dan Szymborski: I imagine that if I’m the owner, I would clean house.

Dan Szymborski: Of course, I would have done that in KC too and that didn’t happen

Kyler: Dan can the Braves make any sort of postseason run with their dumpster fire of a starting rotation? The offense is great and the bullpen is solid.

Dan Szymborski: I think it comes down to if Fried and even Hamels are fine

mike: do you think nelson cruz can win mvp this year? has there ever been an mvp that old?

Dan Szymborski: He COULD. In the end of season ZiPS projections, Cruz is now third in the AL in WAR among hitters.

Dan Szymborski: And he’d be like three weeks older when given the award than Bonds was in 2004.

Dane Szymborski: You had the good Bill James experience. Some get the snippy reply, and it probably hurts a little.

Dan Szymborski: I’d take the snippy reply!

Morbo: Also “name change to Daniel John Szymborski Morbo” I’m pretty sure that would constitute some sort of crime against humanity

Dan Szymborski: You have permission to use your actual last name

Guest: I did a NYT crossword the other day where one of the clues was “Major component in chili.” The answer was beans. So if you’re wrong about that, how can I trust anything else you say?

Dan Szymborski: If the crossword people knew cooking, they’d be writing recipes

Phillip Mamoufwifart: Are you considering getting any of the next generation game consoles? Or are you pretty much a PC gamer?

Dan Szymborski: Probably will get a PS5 at some point. A lot of my console purchases in the past have been JRPG accessibility, but a much larger percentage of them show up on the PC now.

Dan Szymborski: My full list of PS4 games:

Dan Szymborski: The last three years of MLB the Show

Dan Szymborski: Red Dead Redemption 2, which I subsequently bought on the PC

Dan Szymborski: Legend of Heroes: Trails of Cold Steel III, which I subsequently also bought on the PC.

Dan Szymborski: Legend of Heroes: Trails of Cold Steel IV, Japanese import. I do not speak or read Japanese, but I did beat the game!

Birdist: How do cat owners rationalize the billions of birds domesticated cats kill every year

Dan Szymborski: Birds are just dinosaurs that aren’t powerful enough to eat your family

Dan Szymborski: And on that note, time for me to depart for another week! Thanks for coming everyone!

Steve O: Can I be excited about Deivi Garcia?

Dan Szymborski: Affirmative!