Dodgers Clear Payroll as Reds Move Closer to Contender Status
During the Winter Meetings, there were rumblings that the Dodgers were trying to move some salaries and some outfielders. The Cincinnati Reds were one team named as a potential destination, as Jay Jaffe discussed at the time. Included in that post is the following tweet by Ken Rosenthal.
In one variation of this deal, #Dodgers would take back Homer Bailey from #Reds and his remaining $28M commitment as a way of buying prospects. Bailey’s CBT number (average annual salary in multi-year deal) is $17.5M. Deal complex, still in discussion, not close. https://t.co/y3yVs5Rpsf
— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) December 12, 2018
A little over a week later, Jeff Passan was the first to report that Yasiel Puig, Alex Wood, and Matt Kemp are headed to Cincinnati, while Homer Bailey and more would be going to Los Angeles. Bob Nightengale is reporting that Reds prospects Jeter Downs and Josiah Gray are bound for the Dodgers. Joel Sherman is reporting that $7 million is going to the Reds. And Jon Heyman has indicated Kyle Farmer is heading to Cincinnati as well. Based on what we know right now, the trade looks like this.
Reds Receive:
- Yasiel Puig
- Alex Wood
- Matt Kemp
- Kyle Farmer
- $7 million
Dodgers Receive
- Homer Bailey
- Jeter Downs
- Josiah Gray
It’s not just the players who are changing hands but the money they are owed as well, so let’s add in their contracts, including the amount the Dodgers likely care about for competitive balance tax purposes.
Reds Receive:
- Yasiel Puig ($11.3 million MLBTR arbitration estimate)
- Alex Wood ($9 million MLBTR arbitration estimate)
- Matt Kemp ($21.75 million owed, $20 million tax hit)
- Kyle Farmer (Pre-Arb)
- $7 million
Dodgers Receive
- Homer Bailey ($28 million owed, $17.5 million tax hit)
- Jeter Downs (prospect)
- Josiah Gray (prospect)
The Reds add $6.8 million in salary; the tax amounts are irrelevant. The Dodgers remove $6.8 million in salary, but $15.8 in taxable salary. Their current taxable payroll projects to around $180 million. They can’t add Bryce Harper and stay under the $206 million tax amount, but they can comfortably add Harper and keep their tax bill to around $2 million. Or they could add Harper and say, Corey Kluber, and pay under $10 million in competitive balance taxes.
On the field, the Dodgers had too many outfielders and a few extra starting pitchers. With Clayton Kershaw, Rich Hill, Walker Buehler, Hyun-Jin Ryu, and Kenta Maeda under contract, and Julio Urias and Ross Stripling behind them, getting some value out of Alex Wood, who put up a solid 2.6 WAR last season but got a little worse each month and eventually moved to the bullpen in September, makes sense. Wood is still young, turning 28 years old in January, so it isn’t as though his $9 million expected salary is a bad value, though he will be a free agent at the end of next season. For the Dodgers, losing Wood is losing depth at a fairly high cost.
In the outfield, the Dodgers were returning Puig, Kemp, Cody Bellinger, Joc Pederson, and Enrique Hernandez as well as a major-league ready Alex Verdugo. Kemp got off to a great start last season, but was an average hitter in the second half, and even the hot first half was only good enough to make him an average player when combined with the 34-year-old’s defense. Going into 2018, Kemp wasn’t expected to make the Dodgers’ roster after Los Angeles conducted a big money swap with Atlanta about this time last year. If Kemp were a free agent today, it’s hard to see him getting more than six million dollars, so this is mostly just a salary dump.
Puig still have value, though his final 2018 numbers ended up looking a lot like Kemp’s. A 123 wRC+, combined with better defense, make him a better player than Kemp; his three-win projection for next season suggests the same. Add in his age (he turned 28 years old earlier this month), and the fact that, following a short stint on the disabled list at the end of April and beginning of May, Puig had a 145 wRC+ the rest of the way, and it’s easy to see why a team would want to acquire him. As the most expensive outfielder with trade value, it made sense for the Dodgers to move him to clear up space for younger, cheaper options. As for Farmer, he’s a major league-ready backup catcher, and with the Dodgers surplus of good catchers in the minors, he’s an extra piece to free up a roster spot.
The Dodgers are giving up decent players, but coming out a little ahead in the dollars paid and by even more when the competitive balance tax is considered. They also receive two prospects in Downs and Gray. Eric Longenhagen and Kiley McDaniel recently completed the Reds’ top 33 prospect list. Downs was ranked as the Reds’ eighth best prospect, with a 45+ FV, and they had this to say about his future:
He’s a bat-first middle infielder who has a non-zero chance to stick at shortstop, and he’s likely to continue to see time there until he reaches the upper levels of the minors, at which point the Reds will make a decision as to where he fits best. Scouts in other orgs think it will be second base or the outfield. Most of Downs’ physical abilities hover near average but he does a little bit of everything, which, so long as he stays on the middle infield, gives him a good chance to be an average everyday player.
Downs is just 20 and a ways away from the majors, but he does have some potential. Gray came in 13th and received a 40+ grade:
Because of the strike throwing, fastball efficacy, and ability to spin the breaking ball give him a good shot to play a big league role, and we’ve moved Gray up beyond where we had him pre-draft. The athleticism, small school pedigree, and position player conversion aspect of the profile indicates there’s significant potential for growth as Gray gets on-mound experience. He projects as no. 4 starter, with a chance to be more because of his late-bloomer qualities.
These are hardly non-prospects the Reds are sending to Los Angeles, but they are projects who will likely need time to develop and come with considerable risk. If the Dodgers use the newfound payroll space to make a significant addition and one of the two prospects pans out, they are going to look really good, but they paid a pretty high price to make it happen. Both Wood and Puig project to have decent on-field value in 2019, and would have provided the Dodgers with depth in a season in which they are trying to compete.
As for the Reds, they just got a three-win upgrade in the outfield, to go with a one or two win upgrade in the rotation, while only adding about $7 million in payroll and not giving up any of their top prospects. It sounds crazy to say, but right now, the Reds are pretty close to the Phillies and Brewers on paper. The team is in a really tough division, and face a competitive NL Wild Card field as well, but they aren’t that far away from having a chance at a playoff spot. The team still needs more starting pitching, but the Reds aren’t as far away as last season’s 95 losses make them seem.
Craig Edwards can be found on twitter @craigjedwards.
This looks like the Braves getting 2.5 years of Kevin Gausman, a 2.5-WAR pitcher, for an FV45+ in Brett Cumberland and 3 lesser prospects. Here, the Reds are getting 1 year each of Wood, a 2.5 WAR pitcher, and 1 year of Puig, a 2-WAR hitter, for a 45+ in Downs and a lesser prospect. Actually, I think the Dodgers did a little better than the Orioles did given the discount that position players have vis pitchers.
Kemp + $7M for Bailey is a wash.
This looks like the Dodgers getting prospects to build a package for J. T. Realmuto and making room for Harper at the same rime.
The Stinkin’ Jeters are determined to overplay their hand with Realmuto, like when the Orioles traded Machado way too late. Dodgers make a good trade partner but only if they overpay.
just realizing how weird it is that jeter was probably named for jeter …and that jeter could trade for jeter and even hypothetically assemble a team of jeters
Past a Diving Jeter!
Who gets the gift basket and a signed jeter picture the next morning?
Being Derek Jeter…
Actually, I got the Kemp for Bailey part wrong. Rather than a wash, that’s a $14M gain for the Reds. That might tilt it a bit in the Reds direction vis a vis the Gausman deal last summer.
Curious what this means for Chris Taylor. Seems like a good deal all around.
I would say that CT is currently the starting second baseman
Your currently constituted Dodger ballclub looks like this:
CF: Bellinger, Taylor
RF: Hernandez/Verdugo
LF: Hernandez/Pederson
3B: Turner
SS: Seager
2B: Taylor/Hernandez/rarely Muncy
1B: Bellinger/Muncy
C: ??? Austin Barnes + someone else
The Dodgers already played Puig like they believed his reverse splits were real, so they are currently exchanging his bat for Verdugo’s bat, which is a higher contact/lower power/similar overall projection. Verdugo has a Puig-style cannon as well (he was also considered as a P as a draft prospect).
Bellinger rated out quite well as a center fielder; Bellinger in CF with Muncy at 1b is probably the most likely regular arrangement next year. That was how they played most of the second half this year as it was, just with Puig getting most of the PAs that Verdugo would now get.
Free Max Muncy?
I like free stuff.
As is, that seems likely. I wonder if LA might be interested in Domingo Santana, freshly acquired by Seattle. That would get another RHH with power into the lineup at about 2 million (well, and a catching prospect or infielder).
Don’t forget Freese also at first, which means Bellinger will rarely be needed there and Muncy might be available for some second base as well.
Throw in Toles, and it begins to look like they STILL have an excess of outfielders except that now most lean LHH.
I could be wrong here, but I read a piece from July saying that with all of the money attached to him from previous deals, Kemp was only actually due $15.75M from whoever had him in 2019 (so the money would be a wash in the trade).
Could someone explain whether or not that is how the money exchanging of trades works? That’s always confused me.
Keep in mind that some of that money following Kemp around was from the Dodgers originally.
Also, regardless of who is paying his tax hit doesn’t change; that’s based on the AAV of the contract, not on the amount paid this year. Bailey for example is paid 28 million but his AAV is only 17.5.
The Dodgers aren’t saving actual money; they are saving tax calculation money. Bailey is worth 2.5m less per season for tax purposes than Kemp.
Thanks for explaining that. I never knew that a team throwing in money in a salary dump was excluded from the tax threshold of the team receiving it. (My middle market Mets never come close to that tax threshold so I just didn’t know…)
The Dodgers are saving actual money too – about $7-8 million.
They’re not saving money. Wood and Puig are arb-eligible. If worst came to worst, they could release Puig and Wood before ST and only pay a fraction of that (~$3.4m). It likely would never come to that, as there are likely plenty of teams that would be happy to trade for those two.
The Dodgers are taking on real expense in return for lowering their tax calculation by a similar amount, roughly 14m.
Looks like Matt Kemp has become the Theo Ratliff of major league baseball.
Just neighing,
I guess it’s a change of pace after hearing so much last offseason about teams not going for it but from a roster-efficiency standpoint it’s not the best move for the reds but they’ll be entertaining for sure. I just hope kemp doesn’t keep somebody better on the bench. Reds get good trade chips for July if they’re not in it or maybe two compensation picks for the 2020 draft. If the reds get more they could be scary
Can you elaborate on the roster efficiency standpoint? I see Schebler getting pushed to a 4OF and, barring Kemp’s health, a decent number of starts anyways
Schebler has, through age 27, produced at a 1-1.5 WAR per 600 PA rate across more than 1200 MLB PA. I would think that limiting this particular player’s role isn’t prohibitive to the organization’s long term prospects, and Kemp, warts and all, was a bit better last year.
Now, if this makes it harder to break Senzel in with consistent AB, yeah, that’s a potential problem.
I don’t see it making it harder for Senzel to get ABs unless he shows serious development in the experiment to move him to the OF and at that point, if the Reds aren’t in contention they can easily flip Puig
Schebler will get is at bats. Kemp was a six inning player for the Dodgers most of the season.
I’m a bit concerned that this will limit Jesse Winker than Schebler
Looking at the Depth Charts here, wouldn’t the Reds’ OF be Winker, Senzel, and Puig with Schebler and Kemp pine-riding?
I meant efficiency in terms of getting a bunch of players who will be free agents after the season. Puig, Roark, Wood, Kemp. They will hopefully be able to replace those guys eternally but you’re putting a lot of eggs in one basket getting a bunch of expiring contracts
Flip side is they don’t have to guarantee multiple years to the B and C tier free agents they’d be picking from if they didn’t go out and get these players. Plus, in the case of the non Kemp players, they’re arb3, and generally a little younger than the UFA pool. They got out of Bailey’s multiyear deal and added a lot of production; you could argue they mitigated risk.
eternal replacement
Y’now every time I post on this site I proofread like three times to avoid stupid mistakes like that. The one time I don’t I make a royal mistake like that. Dang it
I mean, there IS a lot of potential value in replacing four players for eternity.
Also value in getting paid for eternity.
Regards,
Bobby Bonilla
Those are awfully interesting prospects the Dodgers are getting.
Not overly impressive package but definitely intriguing.
Downs has a great arm and the kind of power/speed combo to easily be a 15/15 guy down the road. The biggest hurdle to his power and play is his hit tool which will limit his overall HRs unless it shows large improvements.
Gray is all potential since he’s a convert but needs to work on develipoung his change and possibly a 4th pitch. Worst case scenario he can be a very good reliever with a powerful FB/SL combo with plus command
Gray’s numbers last year are awful solid – I couldn’t comment on quality of competition or park effects, but I’m always interested (personally) in potential RP/4th starters, specially when they can be paid pre-arb.
Gray’s base numbers are solid. With 10.15 K/9 3.47 K/BB and a 2.58 ERA but it needs to be in context.
This was rookie Ball so that’s the level of competition, plus he got away with a 0.17 HR/9 and a .219 BABIP with a pedestrian GB rate (35.2). Hence his FIP was 3?07 and xFIP was 4.11
He’s still an intriguing prospect because he’s a convert and a late bloomer who’s already moved up in the fangraphs rankings because of his performance last year, but he will struggle at higher levels unless he develops a third pitch especially something that can induce ground balls.
his fastball slider combo is plus and that alone could carry him to the big leagues eventually but he’ll need better secondary options to be anything more than a middle in middle relief guy. There’s obviously time, but that’s just the level prospect he is
Having lost two World Series in a row by failing to push more chips into the spot the flipping Dodgers will now cheapskate their way out of contention for next season.
I commend the Red Sox for being both smart and bold enough to do the right thing and spend money wisely and freely and win it all.
No World Series win again this year. Good thing I can still remember back thirty years to 1988. C’mon Dodgers, for once in the three decades spend money freely and wisely and actually try one year to win it all, will you? Is saving twenty or thirty million more important to you people than success?
Signed,
Disgusted fan of badeball’s very own version of the Buffalo Bills
1) The Dodgers have spent more money than any team in baseball in recent seasons. 2) The offseason isn’t over.
eyeroll
Johnston continues to show that he doesn’t care for anything other than his own preconceived notions.
“Johnston continues to show that he doesn’t care for anything other than his own preconceived notions.”
Is this utterly misguided falsehood the best you can come up with? I go where the data takes me.
Yes, I’m angry that the Dodgers haven’t won the World Series in thirty years and counting. Even the flipping Marlins have won the Series twice since 1988 – but not the Dodgers.
And then they go and make trades like this.
Realmuto? No way, the Marlins asking price is ridiculous. Harper? Hell, no, he’s utterly inconsistent. His WAR from 2014 to 2018 goes 1.1, 10, 1.5, 4.7, 1.3. One great and one good year out of five? You want to pay $300+ million for THAT? I have some bridges to sell you if you do. Machado? Sure, more consistent, far better defense at a more important position. Trout? Of course, this is exactly who the Dodgers should have traded for years ago.
Yet today they gave up Puig and Wood and got back…Homer Bailey. Right. Now they’ll probably go waste the $300+ million on Harper and he will reward them with too many years of 1 to 1.5 WAR and then will turn into the next Pujols.
Argh.
Probably a good idea to relax. I’m old enough to remember 1981 and 1988 as well as the disappointment of 1974, 1977, 1978 and 1980.
That said, the initial rumors are that the Dodgers are revisiting talks with the Indians for Corey Kluber which would be a nice upgrade over Wood. What they do after that, who knows?
They’ll use the cap savings on someone significant. Puig was disgruntled and you can’t get Verdugo on the roster with both him and Kemp around, and if Verdugo+ isn’t going to land Realmuto, it’s time to give him a shot. You can never have too much pitching, but the Dodgers still have a lot of it, and Wood may not have drawn more than a few starts. If you’re not giving him 20+ starts, or as close as his health permits, it’s not an especially efficient use of $9m on a pending free agent. The Dodgers decided they’d be better off consolidating cap and three roster spots into player X, Y and a Verdugo debut. They are absolutely still a good enough team to win a title. It’s December.
This is actually impressive for how many different ways it’s dead wrong.
ETA: re: Johnston
Kemp is wasted Money. This is only a cheapskate move if they don’t sign Harper. If they go out and get Harper, this works to perfection
“If they go ahead and get Harper, this works to perfection.”
Three seasons out of his last five Harper had a WAR of 1.5 or LESS. This is not perfection. This is a Scott Boras albatross contract waiting to ambush the Dodgers.
Machado? Sure. Consistency and good defense. Harper? Do you really believe that he will somehow suddenly discover consistency? I know you know better than to believe that he could ever play decent defense.
2014 1.6
2015 9.3
2016 3.0
2017 4.8
2018 3.5
So what year exactly did Harper have a WAR of 1.5 or less?
Those stats definitely didn’t sound right…
I mean I tend to think Harper is overrated but he’s still very clearly a large upgrade and only 26.
He’s using bWAR instead or fWAR so I wouldnt say the stats arent “right” per se just different.
He’s posting a lot of dumb shit but Harper is unarguably an inconsistent player still trying to find his way.
Yeah I get that he may be using bWAR.
I myself do not think Harper is worth the hype and is significantly overrated and that being said, the fact that Harper had three seasons of under 2 bWAR to me makes me trust the metric less
Johnston’s numbers are from Baseball Reference, and they’re accurate. Obviously there’s a disparity between the two measures of WAR, and the bWAR numbers are more convenient for Harper’s detractors, but the point about Harper’s general inconsistency is still valid. I’m really glad that my favorite team isn’t in the running to overpay Harper for a very long time. If I were a Dodgers fan, I’d be very worried.
As a life long fan of the Bills, do go right ahead and shut up.
WHY CAN’T THE DODGERS PERFORM BETTER UNDER EXTREMELY HIGH VARIANCE COIN TOSS STYLE GAMES!?!?!
Also, the Cleveland Indians (or rather, the entire city of Cleveland sports fans outside basketball) would like to have a talk with you about waiting for championships…
And Winkler is lat in this shuffle… so typical of Reds. Instead of betting on BOTH Senzel and Winkler to add to,Suarez, ,Votto and the upcoming Peraza, etc. they punted again when they should have Shown patience . They really don’t get anything right, including just cutting Hamilton for nothing…
Where is Winkler not playing in this newest set-up? Schebler is the one that loses PAs from my standpoint–and I bet Schebler is still playing 3 days a week anyways.
Senzel won’t break with the big-league club. While this team could be competitive, they’ll still want him to get regular ABs until there is a spot for him. Puig, Gennett,…maybe Kemp could all be gone by the ASB and then voila more than a couple spots are open for Senzel.
Not sure who was offering anything for Hamilton, but I’m sure they sent out a phone call or two.
I think Schebler is the full-time LF and Winker is the regular RF but platoons with Kemp, assuming the Reds don’t find a way to flip him. Winker has some concerning splits, even if he might manage .400 OBP, he’s a handicap vs lefties which Kemp still handles well
Where’s Puig?
Crushing 35-40 dingers in a miniature ballpark? Being fun to watch? Randomly disappearing for a month at a time then hosting a Laser Show the next 3 weeks? I love Puig and can’t wait to see him get full playing time in that bandbox, driving in Votto.
Puig is the presumptive CF. Thought that was a given maybe I should have included that lol.
Schebler LF
Puig CF
Winker RF
Kemp fills in for Winker vs LHP and occasionally gives Schebler a day off, or on the off chance he gets hot again, could supplant Schebler as the primary LF
I’m not sure if I was seeing Senzel break neither the team or get regular at bats BEFORE the move.
He’s working on OF because he’s blocked at 3rd and 2nd but he’s also not gonna get significant at bats over Winker or Schebler unless he somehow lights it up with his OF play in camp
I like Senzel as the 2B of the future. Scooter is with the team one more season max imo. They might move Scooter as part of a deal for a SP (Kluber eg) OR there’s a nonzero chance Senzel is in that deal himself.
For me, Senzel would be untouchable, just because he’s a legitimate 2 or 3 hitter and can play a fine 2B. I don’t like the idea of moving Senzel to the OF. If I had to choose, I’d take a small defensive hit and put him at SS and let Peraza play CF
Billy signed a 1-year deal with K.C. for 5 mil – the Reds tried to get something but given that salary, it’s pretty clear that no other team would have been willing to part with anything of value. Had the Reds offered him arbitration, his salary would have likely been north of 5 million, and the Reds seem to have concluded (correctly, I would say) that Billy just can’t hit enough to hold down an everyday job – I credit the Reds for giving him the chance, though. (And I wish Billy well with the Royals – he is an amazingly fun player to watch.)
I’m not sure how this is “punting” – the Reds swapped Homer for Wood in the rotation, which is a pretty massive upgrade in quality.
Even with the OF – Puig is older than Winker, but he’s a 28-year-old with a similar career OPS+ to Winker and with better defense than Winker. It’s a straight upgrade if you view it in those terms.
A wet sock is an upgrade over Bailey at this point. this is obviously all hearsay, but I heard from a friend of a friend, both of whom are Dodgers fans, that they plan on just parting ways with Bailey, eating the money, and releasing him.
That’s the kind of value he has
Is your friend of a friend ESPN several hours ago?
Winker has .400 OBP upside even if he only has a .400s SLG%. Puig is a bigger name but I think Winker is the better asset. Sure, Winker runs like a baby giraffe so he’s a liability on the bases and in the field (haven’t checked the metrics, but it can’t be good). But when you’re on base 40% of the time you can live with that
I hate this deal for everyone. I get that some of this is a clever little accounting trick to reduce the taxable income from the Dodgers side, but this definitely makes the Dodgers worse and the Reds are still in a lousy position to make a one-year push like this.
Let’s start from the Reds’ perspective. They should probably be seeing what they have in Jesse Winker, and seeing if they can make him okay in left field. That means reps, and not Kemp. Perhaps Winker can’t start every game, but if Kemp starts taking any reps away from Winker that’s a big mistake. Puig is a potentially substantial upgrade over Schebler…for one year. The year after that, Puig is either gone or overpaid, and Schebler is still there. Alex Wood is kind of in the same boat; he’ll make the team better for one year, but then he’s gone. For the the privilege of getting themselves closer to .500, they give up two guys who actually might help them when they’re in better shape later down the line. But they did get great value out of context: The Reds essentially saved $14M with the Bailey for Kemp swap and with the extra $7M going their way, trading a 45+ and a 40+ and paying about $13M more for something like a 3-win upgrade (at the cost of making the team better when they’re in a more advantageous spot on the win curve).
But I really hate this for the Dodgers. If they don’t sign Harper, then they just got rid of their best option in right field and a good starter, and there’s virtually no way they can get equivalent value back for that money. This is a team that is in the right spot on the win curve to add wins, not subtract it. While it looks like there’s no room for Wood in the rotation, they need some depth because everyone in the rotation is brittle, and they’ll probably need someone in RF. If they do sign Harper, then they’re over the tax line anyway, and they’ve probably overpaid to get him, and given away a lot of value in order to do it.
And either way, trading Puig causes problems because the lineup becomes dangerously unbalanced. Here are their right-handed hitters:
Austin Barnes
Justin Turner
Chris Taylor
Enrique Hernandez
David Freese
That’s it. I suspect that the Dodgers have decided that they don’t need many right-handed hitters. But that is not an inspiring group.
Reds could arguably flip Puig and Wood at the deadline for better or more prospects than they gave up. If they tell their fans they’re trying to win now they could sell more season tickets
No. They can’t get an FV45+ for half a season of Wood or Puig. JD Martinez only returned an FV40.
The JD Martinez deadline return is becoming the outlier to hitter deadline deals that Chapman for Gleyber Torres is for pitching. Several circumstances unique to that season/situation aided these outlier returns. They should not be held up as true market values.
Kyle Farmer is likely a 40 FV prospect (and he’s ready to be a MLB backup catcher now) so he is roughly equal in value to Gray (a 40+ FV) who is still years away.
So really the Reds just need to be able to flip Wood and/or Puig at the deadline to recoup something close the 45 FV prospect they are down at this point. Maybe they only get a 40 FV back for each, but that is a chance they have to take. They have a decent (not great) team now. And pitching absolutely brings back prospects at the deadline, so if Wood has a good year he’ll net a 45 FV prospect at the deadline.
If you call the JD Martinez trade an outlier, then you must have a large sample of half-season rentals of players like Wood and Puig (both worse than JDM) who’ve been traded since for more. Why don’t you start naming those trades? I can’t think of any.
Sure, if Wood starts pitching like Yu Darvish when he was 4+-win Yu Darvish, he’ll net a Yu-Darvish-like return. But he’s never done that, so I wouldn’t expect that.
You can’t remember all the trades involving 45 FV prospects because they are so trite and commonplace. Check out this summary from last year:
https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/ranking-the-prospects-traded-at-the-deadline-2/
His is the list of rental players (just from last year) that returned a 45 FV prospect: JA Haap, Asdrubal Cabrera, Mike Moustakas, Jonathan Schoop, Seung Hwan Oh, Nathan Eovaldi.
Puig is projected for 3 WAR and Wood has averaged 3 WAR over the last two year. It is by no means a stretch for one of them to have a decent year and net a 45 FV prospect at the deadline.
No way bums like Moustakas, Schoop, and Cabrera returned FV45’s. I don’t think you can trade an FV45+ for 2 guys in December and then trade them for 2 FV45’s in June. That kind of arbitrage doesn’t exist, though I might still prefer the FB45+ to 2 45’s.
“No way bums like Moustakas, Schoop, and Cabrera returned FV45’s.”
Well the actual players involved in the trades are fairly undeniable, right?
So, when the Mets got Franklyn Kilome for Asdrubal Cabrera you are saying that Eric Longenhagen and/or Kiley McDaniel incompetently listed Kilome as a FV45+?
Schoop’s listed return is Luis Ortiz (FV45) and Jean Carmona (FV40) and Mustakas, Brett Phillips (FV45) and Jorge Lopez (FV35+)
It is certainly fair to disagree with the prospect experts at Fangraphs, I’m sure we’d all love you detailed write-ups on the three key players above as of the trade deadline last year and why they were so overrated.
Fair point. You and Okra have demonstrated that 2-ish win players can return FV45’s and thus, this trade looks no-risk for the Reds. Okra has also shown that he is not a seedy vegetable that slimes up when he contacts oil and heat. Well done, gents.
I think this is probably the most optimistic scenario for the Reds. They got great value, and maybe they can recoup some value down the line, and maybe they’ll win a few games between now and then, and maybe they’ll sit Kemp down and give Winker 500 PAs. I just don’t like it when teams that look like they’ll start contending in a couple of years trade prospects who will be ready at that exact time for guys who won’t be there then.
Reds didn’t get great value though since they did worse than the Braves did for Gausman
The Dodgers viewed Puig as a lefty tho
It should be as obvious as Puig’s emotions on his face that this move is simply clearing some money and spots for the Dodgers to do something else. I hate to assume anything with the Dodgers, but this deal is step 1 of probably 3 moves. Judging it by itself is pointless.
The Reds might have extra moves to make, too.
Opening day is still a ways off.
Gennet or Winker might be moving.
The Dodgers have treated Puig for 2 seasons like they believe his reverse platoon splits are a real phenomenon.
He has been losing PAs vs LHP to Hernandez and Taylor for 2 years running.
I think you’re right, and that’s ridiculous. He might hit righties and lefties equally well in a true-talent world but that’s a good thing! Argh.
mikejunt nails it here. It’s very frustrating and I can’t wait to see Puig Destroyer just play every day. The majority of “reverse splits” are SSS and not a huge gap and don’t sustain long term. On the one hand there is no way I’m smarter than a collective front office. On the other hand, as George Carlin said so well, think of the average dummy and then realize half of the people are effin’ *dumber* than that! I’ve had a HS baseball coach before who just decided I sucked because I sassed him (but good). When we remember all involved are messy human beings, change of scenery trades start to make more sense.
And his struggles against lefties are mostly BABIP. He’s had average to great BB:K rates against them even in the past two years.
From the Reds’ side, I LOVE this deal. They are not going for it this year and probably miss the playoffs by at least 10 games,…but they’ve got a competitive year at least and that will attract interest.
This also helps the clubhouse I believe because they got rid of a MAJOR negative (Bailey) and gained 3 players with deep playoff experience. Also: you have no idea how bad Reds fans wanted Bailey gone.
The Reds essentially traded their #7SP and two lotto ticket prospects for (their) #2SP and two Opening Day starters in 2019. This is step, not spring-board move.
All respect meant, usually love your takes sadtrombone, but I’m very much for this move for the Reds.
I think, out of context, it is a huge win for the Reds. And in context, I still like it better for them than for the Dodgers. I would have liked this deal a lot better if they had somehow managed to keep their prospects, even if it meant getting slightly less in return.
This trade is a huge win for the Reds and a huge mistake for the Dodgers. But you should all know that already.
20 year old single A guys with FV under 50 are definitely lotto pick guys. Downs definitely has some nice potential but hasn’t really improved his hit tool and both of them are still 4 years away from being contributors if they have solid continual developments
As pointed out in the article, the Dodgers have lots of fungible starting pitching with Maeda, Ryu, Urias and Stripling. I agree that Verdugo is not equivalent to Puig, but this does look like a move to make space for another OF.
Ignoring your framing of your point about MLB talent, these aren’t world-beater prospects. Yeah Downs is nice but he’s a 45+ guy and Gray is a 40+ guy.
Neither project as stars or even above-average players, more like solid positional player and back end of the rotation guy. Plus, fangraphs has their ETA in the majors at 2021. that means, if they develop the way they ideally should, they’re not breaking camp with the big league team until 2022.
Downs has nice potential but a poor hit tool and struck out a hundred and three times in A ball. gray is essentially a to pitch player who’s got nice potential but it’s still really learning how to pitch
Is the name Jeter alone not worth +5 FV? There was a great comment on Deadspin today by reginaldveljohnson: “YEAH OTHER JEETS!” Really took me back to the early aughts. But yeah they’re just kids who might be guys. Let’s not go crazy.
He will be a middle IF named Jeter so I’ll definitely give him the benefit of the name by really leaning into that + on his 45+
They don’t have to be world-beater prospects if they’re flipped in a package for someone else, as has been suggested.
A playoff-bound team swapping scratch-offs to a team who should be buying them for someone who can help said playoff-bound team (ie, Realmuto, etc) absolutely needs quantity when they don’t want to give up all their quality.
Getting two prospects to use as those tickets seems more valuable to me than trying to include questionable MLB starters (not Puig, but the rest) that are making actual money, especially considering A) many teams value even mediocre prospects over marginal talents making arb money, B) it clears some roster jam, and C) the more prospects you have, the more options you have to play with.
The Dodgers made this deal as they had way too many outfielders and starting pitchers. They received assets in Downs and Gray in return, while also freeing up payroll to add Harper, Kluber or Realmuto, or several of that group. Friedman is far from done and will improve the roster by spring training. He is smart enough to realize the lineup is too lefty-heavy.
Great deal for the Dodgers getting 12 years of assets for 3 years of wood, Kemp and Puig.
“And either way, trading Puig causes problems because the lineup becomes dangerously unbalanced. Here are their right-handed hitters:
Austin Barnes
Justin Turner
Chris Taylor
Enrique Hernandez
David Freese
That’s it. I suspect that the Dodgers have decided that they don’t need many right-handed hitters. But that is not an inspiring group.”
Um.
Turner 4.2 fWAR
Taylor 3.1 fWAR
Hernandez 3.3 fWAR
Puig 1.8 fWAR
You were saying?
I wonder if they just cut Kemp by late May – infield is full, they have Winker and Puig locked into spots (the former already a defensive liability) and Senzel coming up behind, and Schebler needs ABs too. This could be the best lineup in the NL if Winker and Senzel stay healthy.
Love the Puig acquisition, now go get Keuchel and call it an off-season
Kemp is a useful player, just not at his salary. They don’t need to cut him. They can trade him and $20m for real prospects if they want.
I am actually not convinced any team would pay much for him. He started off on fire, but his second half was pretty similar to what he’s done in the past.
However, what he did do is demonstrate that at least for one season, he could be adequate in the field. Still, I don’t think a team would pay more than $3M for him on the open market…maybe less.
Kemp seems similar to Steve Pearce
I think the Reds just got a lot more interesting – yes they are better than their record last year showed – and they have some high upside young talent coming (Winker, Senzel) but unless they add at least an ace (Kluber) or two more really good starters (Keuchel + x) I don’t see them making a real run.
That being said, I don’t think they make this move unless they think they have a real shot.
P.S. the “one year window” commentary re: Puig is a bit overstated as the Reds have Trammell who looks to be just a year or two away.
I think the Reds have about a 3 year window (Votto still good, Suarez, Winker, Senzel still with control, Iglesias still under contract)
This reminds me of the kind of trade I would make with baseball cards with a friend who was a few years older and had a much bigger collection than mine. If I had any card he didn’t he’d let me pick 4 cards he had doubles of.
Go ahead and flip your bat because you barreled that one up. Best analysis I’ve seen yet. This is why you have depth, so you can do stuff with it even without having to arbitrage every ounce.
I’m looking for the Braves to do that at some point with their dozen or so almost-ready pitching prospects. Might be a great chip around the trade deadline.
Classic baseball trades are about players having more value or being a better fit for the receiving team than the one moving them. There’s always risk but the idea is for both teams to gain something they need in return for something they can do without or easily replace.
I’m going to use this line as my own in the future.
I like to bet MLB over/unders in March. I’ll be very interested to see where Vegas puts the Reds when the dust settles… I give them props for going balls to the wall this year, whether it’s reckless or genius.
One small nit on the money: according to Baseball Reference, the Padres are still on the hook for $2.5M to Kemp in 2019. That would mean the money saved by the Dodgers was that much less, as well as on the tax side.
Holy crap go reds go!
Looking at the big picture, the Reds have swapped out Matt Harvey with Tanner Roark, Homer Bailey with Alex Wood, Billy Hamilton with Yasiel Puig. Steamer projects those three outgoing players to be worth a combined 2.5 WAR, and they will collectively be paid $39 million plus incentives. Those incoming three players are projected to accrue 4.7 WAR, at the cost of $30.1 million. I think Wood has more upside than Steamer is accounting for, but that doesn’t seem too off to me.
However, these improvements came at significant cost of taking on Kemp’s contract *and* sending out prospects, and all of the players they added are in their walk year. If I’ve done the math right, they added about $13 million to their payroll while sending out Downs, Gray, and Tainey. They could have made a similar improvement to their roster by just releasing Bailey themselves, keeping said prospects, and using the roster spot and dollars they had available on Lance Lynn.
These are lotto ticket prospects. 40-45 FV that won’t debut for 3+ years. Kemp’s contract can be flipped as well as any of the pending FAs if it’s not worth it to ride it out.
You’re totally correct that they and improved the team short term with more cost efficient players. I just happen to disagree with the cost. You didn’t take into account Bailey’s 2020 year either.
They gave up lotto prospects to shed a contract they just wanted to get rid of.
These aren’t the kind of can’t miss prospects where there’s a large likelihood where we’re looking back in 5 years and thinking it was a mistake by the Reds
FV45+ in Downs is a top-175 prospect in the game, not a “lotto ticket”, whatever that is.
A lotto ticket is a warm body that might end up as anything from a good regular to a minor league coach at 30. They are someone you hope develops not someone you know will develop all the way to the big club.
For the Reds the questions are:
1- When might the prospects help the team?
2- How might they help?
3- How easily could they be replaced by the time they would be helping?
4- How much do they have invested in them?
The Reds have other prospects and they will get a lot more between now and the time Downs and Gray are ready. Some might even be better and help sooner.
The purpose of a prospect is to help the team, somehow, someday.
Some help with their performance, some help as currency.
Teams try not to get too attached to prospects because in the end a prospect is just somebody who hasn’t done anything yet.
They’re currency.
Maybe you and BradZimmer are new here, but we have terms like FV35, FV40, FV45, etc that encapsulate probable outcomes for prospects and thus their worth both to their current teams and as trade currency. No need to use an overly broad term as “lotto ticket.”
And those FV ratings aren’t static and based on the progression of players through the system. I did watch a bit of highlights on Downs AND read FGs scouting reports to come to my point.
He’s a 45+ FV guy which isn’t a word beater. He is also still in low A and wasn’t killing it yet. Baseball history is littered with guys like him who would be 45+ FV guys that barely make a dent in Major league baseball. That’s not to say he can’t, but that a second or third-tier prospect in low-a is going to be a lottery ticket because they still have so much development to go.
It’s a better lottery ticket than the other guy who’s a 40+ FV but guys were that far away from the majors unless they are top 30 pics that I’ve produced are generally going to be lottery tickets until they develop more.
that’s not to say he couldn’t be good, I think he has the potential to make an impact on a Major league roster. But fangraphs projects him as an adequate starter type of player if he reaches his potential
So, here was my thinking BradleyZimmernsBizarreHits.
The Reds (looking at actual cash not CBT values) non-tendered Hamilton ($5.1 million) and traded away the balance of Homer Bailey’s contract ($28 million), which saved them $33.1 million. Then they added Roark ($9.8 million), Wood ($9 million), Puig ($11.3 million), and Kemp ($18.75 million) to their books. Factoring in the $7 million payout from the Dodgers, that adds up to $41.85 million, or, in other words, a net addiction of $8.75 million (which is less than the $13 million I originally calculated, apologies for that), plus however and whatever you value those prospects at.
My argument was that the Reds could have “bought” their own prospects by just paying off the Bailey contract themselves, and still had dollars left over to spend in free agency to make the improvements that would last beyond the season. That said, looking at all of the moving parts, Kemp is a more useful “replacement level” player than Bailey is, and you probably couldn’t acquire a Puig or Wood more inexpensively, so the Reds did OK here.
Good job Cincy!
They still need some more starting-pitching, as Craig said, but they are finally making some pitching improvements. Alex Wood is a solid upgrade for the Reds, and that lineup will be a good one with Puig hitting in that ballpark.
Kluber and Bauer for Senzel, Trammel and Greene. Reds win World Series.
LOL, that would so ironic. TWO division favorites trading down depth for prospects, and the Reds make them pay.
Could this be the new trade arbitrage opportunity in MLB??
And Cleveland falls out by June?
Maybe one or the other but not both. Cleveland isn’t that deep in good starters. And they need certain OF help now not next year or the year after.
Maybe neither. Cleveland might have dumped enough salary not to need to move either, just yet. They might keep both, hoping Kluber stays healthy and Bauer gets even better. Besides, they have a full load of lottery tickets for their outfield. They might just gamble it’s enough to get them through the year.
As a dodger fan; yes Puig needed to go (although hes loved out here; very dumb fan base overall), yes Kemp needed to go (he doesnt fit anyones plan, like another poster said, I can see him being cut late May by Cin), yes Wood was totally expendable but damn couldnt they have actually gotten something better than -20 mill in Bailey and having to pay his 5 mill 2020 buyout as well…..
I realize this is a deal before a deal but it certainly feels light – Ida rather piece meal traded Puig and Wood off solo and just cut kemp entirely or maybe even sending him to tor with cash for martin
You wouldn’t have gotten an FV45+ in Jeter Downs by trading Puig and Wood separately. Dodgers did reasonably well here though they are eating a lot of cash.
Yea my only thoughts were they must really like Downs and Gray – Its not like Lad had much leverage – I know 5 mill isn’t that much and we wont know the dividends of said prospects by next year this time but that 2020 Bailey buy-out isnt going to feel good next December when all other monies are washed from both teams and Lad getting no contributions from this trade 2019 and likely 2020
I’m sure Friedman has a plan and they will get more from the players they deal for/sign after this deal than the players they traded.
“very dumb fan base overall”??? For liking Puig? If you don’t like Puig and how he plays, you might be next level dumb yourself.
How much do you think they should get in return for 3 guys in the last year of their contract? The Reds knew the Dodgers needed to deal a few other their extra outfielders and pitchers.
“(although hes loved out here; very dumb fan base overall)”
Certainly. Why would you want to be a fan of an exciting player with a cannon arm and a penchant for big moments and weird results? Obviously dumb as rocks.
Yes the Dodgers have one hell of a dumb fan base I thought this was pretty common knowledge- If your in doubt go to a game and it will be wildly apparent by the 3rd inning
And no Raygu I dont like Puig, I think hes vastly overated and a bad influence on the players around him
Can someone clarify the Luxury Tax bit for me?
So they save ~$2.5m in the LT payroll calculation. The LT threshold this year is $208m and this would be there sixth year over it, meaning they’d pay 50% on everything over that amount.
Am I correct in saying that the savings they just made only matter if they stay under the threshold? If they go over, then the trade only saves them $1.25m in tax, which is vastly outweighed by the $7m they sent to Cincy or the difference between Kemp and Bailey’s contracts.
They stayed under last year so it reset
I love the passionate and (for the most part) thoughtful dialog. However, I confess I’m an American League fan. This trade is like watching the double switch or what American League fans call over managing. I get the money aspect, but in the end it seems its a lot of moving parts to have any idea of who won or lost (true of most trades I guess?). Perhaps National League fans are just smarter than American League fans? With the exception of Red Sox fans of course ;).
I’m still not sure what this trade really does for the Reds. I’m interested to see their projections, after the quick “compare similarly to the Phillies and Brewers” was given. Because frankly, that line shocked me. I don’t know how good Roark and Wood are to really improve this team to approach 500, and the same goes for Puig and the rest of that haul. I’m interested, I guess, but I’d be stunned if this ends up resulting in enough wins to look like a playoff team.
The idea is that the Reds talent level was better than their record–supported by their performance after changing managers–and that adding two decent-to-good pitchers and another good bat fills in most of their holes, making them middle of the pack or slightly better. Hence, wild card contenders. Barring further moves, Brewers and Phillies project right now as wc contenders more than top of the division teams.
But it’s early…
fjtorres covers this from the Reds’ perspective, which is that they have a lot of guys who project pretty well. Before this trade, Steamer projected them to be roughly a 78-win team. But I will add that part of the reason why they were projected well was because they couldn’t possibly believe that the Reds’ pitching could have been as bad as last year’s. In some cases, I think they are right. Castillo is almost certainly better than what he showed last year, DeSclafani has upside, Tyler Mahle is probably not replacement level, etc. And the lineup is surprisingly deep for a team that did so badly last year. Basically the whole lineup, except for RF, projected to 2 wins or more next year.
The problem is that because Steamer was so high on the Reds already, this deal doesn’t actually move the needle that much. Before, they were seen as a 78 win team. Now, Steamer sees them as a…79 win team. This is because adding Puig supposedly blocks Nick Senzel from playing in CF, who Steamer (rightfully) loves. You could get around this by sitting Schebler and adding Senzel back, but it sounds like the Reds are trying to move Scooter Gennett instead, who Steamer is skeptical of but was their best position player last year and may be up there again. He’s perfect for that ballpark, and I can’t believe they’re trying to dump him since he’s probably better for them than any other team. Additionally, adding Wood is almost certainly a big win for them, but Steamer is skeptical of Wood and surprisingly optimistic that someone for the Reds would step forward, so it doesn’t move the needle as much as you would expect.
If you want to try and just maximize your Steamer projection, dumping Gennett to put Senzel in there doesn’t hurt you that much, but I think they clearly would be better off trying to get Senzel in at another position and keep Gennett for the long-haul. Either way, getting Senzel back into the lineup probably bumps you up another 1-2 wins in Steamer, getting you to an 80 or 81 win team.
How hard do you really want to go, pushing your chips like this for a one-year improvement, especially when it comes down to a lot of sound and fury but a 1-3 win improvement in the projections, getting you closer to .500? This is a team that has the potential to really come into its own in 2020 with Senzel and Trammell and Suarez and the like, and a juggernaut in 2021. Wouldn’t it make more sense to spend your trade chips then?
In addition to the Reds’ side, Steamer is really down on both the Brewers’ and the Phillies. They see both of them as 78-79 win teams after the Reds’ moves. This actually sort of makes sense for the Phillies, since they were an 80-82 team with a -51 run differential, and they don’t really have any guys who seem like they have untapped potential except maybe Hoskins. Adding Segura and McCutchen should help, but this is a team that if it’s going to compete will do so by spending a ton of money.
On the Brewers’ side, Steamer hates them because they think that every player is going to regress, going from a +95 run differential to a -33 run differential. It’s worth noting that this is the *second consecutive year* Steamer has said that about the Brewers. They projected the Brewers to regress back to a 78-79ish win team even after all their moves, and instead they finished with the best record in the NL. So clearly, whatever projection system the Brewers use is far more bullish on them than Steamer is. Last year, they projected everyone to regress; this year, they’re projecting everyone to regress. Check it out: Shaw, Cain, Yelich (although Yelich is definitely going to regress!), Aguilar, Chacin, are all set to regress by 1 win or more. And they don’t really love the Brewers’ young pitchers either, being down on Woodruff, Burnes, and Peralta.
I don’t think it’s unrealistic to think that (a) neither the Brewers or Phillies are done for the offseason, and also that (b) both of them are better than the relatively conservative Steamer projections expect. The real problem for both of them is that the Brewers are competing with the Cards and Cubs (where they are likely, at best, co-favorites) and the Phillies are competing with the Nationals, Braves, and Mets (where they are, at best, the third best team of that group, most likely fourth). It could be a wild year in the NL for Team Entropy.
It wouldn’t even be crazy if the Reds turned around and flipped Puig and Wood to someone like the A’s for Puk or Luzardo (or some team’s top-five prospect). That’s better than they could have done had they dangled Bailey and two #12-ish prospects. Seems like a great deal for the Reds, even if they hold Puig and Wood and try to compete.
Puig and Wood certainly aren’t going to fetch Puk or Luzardo. They were essentially just flipped for Jeter Downs, who is #175 overall (estimated at #6 prospect on an average team’s farm system). That deal also had significant financial strategic advantages for the other side (LAD).,
I think the most probable scenario is they play a half season for the Reds, who aren’t in a position to make a playoff push by midseason. Realizing this, the Reds FO trades them for basically equivalent value to the prospect they just lost (Downs). Maybe they’re able to get a guy similarly ranked to Downs but that they like more.
That may feel pessimistic, but look at it this way: they get 2 half seasons of average+ play at market/below market cost, look like they’re trying to compete, and can “reset” the prospect talent in the deal by making a deadline move. Best case, they’re in the playoff hunt, likely because one or both of the acquired players is going nutso.
I like it for the reds. Give up two solid prospects but if they fail they can probably flip wood and puig for similar prospects at the deadline or get comp picks. They do not lose much in terms of prospects and could possibly add 4-5 wins.
@Jay Dee: Dodger Fan Here; it’s “if you’re in doubt”. Don’t bash a team’s fans for being stupid if you don’t remember 3rd grade grammar.