Draft Odds & Ends
It’s strange that this year’s draft is already over and that some teams took as few as three players. Now we move into $20,000 undrafted free agent signing mode, a totally unprecedented exercise. In the coming days, I’ll add the drafted players to their new teams’ prospect lists over on The Board; you’ll see them on the 2020 Updated list on the Prospect List tab after I do. The farm system rankings will change as I do that. You can already see the approximate Top 100 landing spot for the 50 FV and above draftees on the MLB Draft tab of The Board.
Odds
Texas Rangers
Texas’ draft will be the talk of the industry today. After taking Justin Foscue in the first round (Fosuce was in the mix throughout the middle of round one) the Rangers went off the board (well, public boards anyway) and picked a bunch of six-figure high school types throughout the rest of the draft.
In round two, it was Tennessee prep outfielder Evan Carter, a high school two-way player committed to Duke. What I have on Carter at the moment is that he’s fast, has a big, rectangular frame, and that he has good bat speed but a swing path that may not work. This is next to nothing, and we’ll all learn more about Carter in the coming days. Based on what I know right now, he sounds like a 35+ FV prospect, a $600,000 type of high schooler. I also have a 35+ FV on Tekoah Roby, the club’s third rounder, who was up to 94 last summer, flashed a 55 changeup, and has a medium frame. Fourth rounder Dylan MacLean is an athletic, projectable lefty from Oregon whose stuff has coveted vertical action. His fastball was in the mid-80s last summer, up from the low-80s early the spring prior. It’s likely he’ll throw harder as he matures based on the frame and athleticism, or that we’d know he were throwing harder this spring had he played (and that Texas does, but successfully hid it), but he’s the kind of prospect who ends up in the honorable mention section of a team’s prospect list. Finally, their fifth rounder was Thomas Saggese, a contact-oriented SoCal high school infielder. A handful of teams were on Saggese, also a 35+ FV prospect, who could hit enough to play second base everyday. All of these kids are actual prospects, but unless we learn something new about a couple of them (Did MacLean have a velo spike? Did we whiff on Carter as an industry?), this draft will feel odd, and I wonder if Texas’ new stadium has impacted their financial situation and that that may mean they aren’t spending their whole pool.
University of Florida
Pitchers Tommy Mace (40+FV), Jack Leftwitch (40 FV), and Christian Scott (35+ FV) all went undrafted and will return to school as core elements of the Gators pitching staff (assuming an NBP team can’t poach one of them), while high school lefty Timmy Manning (35+ FV, a Florida commit) was undrafted. There are five other Gators on whom I currently have Day 1 grades for future drafts.
and
Baltimore Orioles
I think Baltimore crushed it. Cutting a deal with Heston Kjerstad at two enabled them to scoop up good high schoolers Coby Mayo (67th on my board, with huge power and arm strength, and who I have projected in right field) and Carter Baumler near the end of the draft. I also think Anthony Servideo’s 2020 breakout is for real.
Los Angeles Dodgers
A source told me the Dodgers ended up drafting all three pitchers they were considering at pick 29 and I can’t believe Clayton Beeter fell as far as he did given how elite his stuff his. Fourth round Virginia Tech catcher Carson Taylor was a draft-eligible sophomore who missed part of his freshman year due to a hamate break. He’s a switch-hitter who had two oppo doubles in a heavily-scouted Sunday matchup with Georgia Tech. Central Arkansas reliever Gavin Stone, fifth round, is an athletic 5-11 reliever who had a velo spike in the bullpen during the shutdown, topping out around 96.
San Diego Padres
Assuming Cole Wilcox’s deal gets done, the Padres left with three first round talents. They got relative certainty with Robert Hassell because of his bat, and two big, projectable frames and athletes in Justin Lange and Owen Caissie. Then they added a top 20 prospect in Wilcox, and a really interesting high school lefty in Jagger Haynes, a plus athlete with flat fastball approach angle who could throw harder with mechanical polish. They also picked up Troy righty Levi Thomas, who sits about 91 but has a 55 breaking ball and on-mound swagger.
Ends
Here’s some quick commentary on everyone else’s draft. If individual players aren’t mentioned here, check out my Day 1 recap and click on the scouting report clipboard on The Board.
Arizona drafted three more pitchers with backspinning fastballs, which makes at least seven drafted with early-round selections in the last two years; the one exception, Brennan Malone, has already been traded. Fifth rounder Brandon Pfaadt has a really fast arm and creates good depth on a two-plane breaking ball. Atlanta selected several “tip of the iceberg” types, players who have a shorter track record of performance, statistical or otherwise, or who missed time with injury.
I liked Boston’s fourth and fifth round arms, but I’m not on the Blaze Jordan bandwagon. I think some teams need to better contextualize age in their models (young in actual age, young in frame/physique, young from a reps perspective).
I mentioned in this week’s Cubs list that they’ve made important swing alterations to some of their recent draftees, and I think Michigan center fielder Jordan Nwogu really needs one but could mash if that gets dialed in.
In order to fit Jared Kelley into their pool, the White Sox grabbed likely underslot pitchers Adisyn Coffey, a converted junior college infielder who was on the Sox Area Code team three years ago, and GCU’s Kade Mechals, who lives in the upper-80s, has a plus change, and had TJ in May.
Cincinnati had a well-rounded draft that seemed like it was conducted with the big club in mind, with quick-moving college arms picked to fill behind a staff that needs it, and hitters who’ll take awhile and won’t push the major league core for a bit.
Cleveland’s first four picks were all 40+ FV players clustered in the 50s on The Board, a class facilitated by Carson Tucker taking an underslot deal in the first round. I non-prospect’ed Vanderbilt righty Mason Hickman, their fifth rounder, based on my February look at him (87-89, average curveball) but his heater has some carry.
Colorado got two high-probability college arms and an interesting local sleeper on Day 2.
Detroit collected lots of good college players on Day 2 and closed with a bat-first high school infield prospect in Colt Keith. I think Gage Workman is going to be a tough sign, though. He’s young for the class and had a rough start to this year, so his stock might be better a year from now and ASU is poised to let him give shortstop a try.
Alex Santos was a good get for Houston to start their draft. I’m not on Vanderbilt reliever Tyler Brown, who pitched with fringe stuff when I saw him in February. Zach Daniels has crude raw power. It’s fifth rounder Shay Whitcomb, from UC San Diego, who I like as a sleeper. He’s really short to the ball but still creates pull-side lift, and he’s an infield fit for me, but probably second base rather than short.
I think Kansas City probably overpaid Nick Loftin but I like every player they picked, and it sounds like Will Klein was at or near the top of most teams’ pref lists as a $20,000 UDFA had they not drafted him.
The Angels did their usual mix of young upside athletes and college performers. Werner Blakely has huge projection, and David Calabrese is very young. Fifth rounder Adam Seminaris is a four-pitch lefty from Long Beach with good secondary stuff. He doesn’t throw very hard but fills the zone and might be a 40-man arm eventually.
Miami went mono-pitching, and their last two selections, Jake Eder and Kyle Hurt, were prominent high school arms who didn’t really develop in college.
Milwaukee didn’t try to get too cute, taking two toolsy college players who fell below where they belonged on talent for superficial reasons, then grabbing three interesting college projects in Zavier Warren (a switch-hitting infielder who they announced as a catcher), Joey Wiemer (huge frame and bat speed, swing is rough), and Hayden Cantrelle (a switch-hitter who sprays line to line).
Minnesota had what looks like the literal shortest draft, with players averaging 6-foot-1. All their hitters’ carrying tool is their power, which has been true of every early-round Twins draftee for the last several years.
The Mets had to cut some deals after taking J.T. Ginn, likely overslot, in the second round. These were Arizona catcher Matt Dyer, who might have gotten six figures as a JuCo sophomore a couple years ago had he not gone to U of A. He’s lean, athletic, fast, has a great arm and some power. Roboumps will help him catch but his swing needs some love. Then they took redshirt senior Eric Orze from New Orleans (they’re the Privateers), who missed two seasons with injury but was up to 96 indoors with shorts on during quarantine, and has a split and slider, both of which are fringy.
I dragged the Yankees for doing away with the four corners area in yesterday’s recap; they then took a second player from Arizona, which is hilarious. Trevor Hauver has a real shot if he can play second base. He runs really deep counts, hits the ball in the air consistently, and has enough pop to do some damage. Beck Way has a good frame and arm strength, and New York is good at developing those types of guys.
Tyler Soderstrom overslot with Oakland meant they had to cut on Day 2, which they appeared to do in the third with Georgia outfielder Michael Guldberg, who has plus bat control but 40 bat speed. Oklahoma pitcher (the Sooners entire weekend rotation was drafted) Dane Acker went in the fourth. He gutted his way through a no-hitter versus LSU in front of most of the industry at the Shriner’s Classic. It’s on YouTube in its entirety.
Pound for pound, Philadelphia’s draft had the most upside because of Mick Abel and Casey Martin’s ceilings. Fourth rounder Carson Ragsdale has good vertical separation between his fastball and curveball but he’s 6-foot-8 and I’m not sure if the angle his size creates best suits that style.
Pittsburgh’s draft seemed driven by events that occurred in 2019: Nick Gonzales‘ and Carmen Mlodzinski’s Cape performance, Jared Jones’ pitch data, and Nick Garcia’s fall velocity (well above what I saw in February).
San Francisco’s draft was like Milwaukee’s, a college value cake with Kyle Harrison (a funky two-seam, changeup high school lefty) icing.
I think it’s likely any of Seattle’s Tyler Keenan, Kaden Polcovich, or Zach DeLoach could be everyday guys, but I think they all end up big league role players. Fifth rounder Taylor Dollard goes mostly fastball/slider, and I also saw a change and curve against UConn in February. He’s a fringe 40-man type.
The Cardinals went heavy on risky high schoolers early then balanced it nicely with college arms late. I wonder if they’ll develop Masyn Winn and Alec Burleson as two-way players.
Tampa had to cut a couple deals to fit Nick Bitsko into their pool but they didn’t mortgage their entire draft.
Toronto went mono-college after drafting Austin Martin, a sign he’s overslot at five.
Washington only deviated from college pitching in the second comp round to draft Florida high school infielder Sammy Infante.
Eric Longenhagen is from Catasauqua, PA and currently lives in Tempe, AZ. He spent four years working for the Phillies Triple-A affiliate, two with Baseball Info Solutions and two contributing to prospect coverage at ESPN.com. Previous work can also be found at Sports On Earth, CrashburnAlley and Prospect Insider.
Great Job, Eric. Wonderful to all of your draft day coverage and thank you.
I was really, really wondering about Tommy Mace falling too. He seems like a pretty obvious 2nd rounder. So I started googling around and found a quote where he said that he wasn’t going to take anything that came his way, and that if he didn’t like it he’d return back to school. Then I read something with either a current or former pitching coach at Florida who said that he should be an easy 1st rounder. I suspect that the Florida guys are getting some information–which may or may not be good–that they should name their price early and if a team isn’t willing to meet it that they should go back to school.
I’m guessing that Carson Montgomery, Tanner Witt, Kevin Parada, Cade Horton, Drew Bowser, and Corey Collins were too tough to sign once they fell out of the comp round, and in the first couple of cases might have been too tough to sign even when they were in the comp round.
Mace’s stuff is about as TM-unfriendly as it gets, fwiw. When other SEC aces (who have better stuff) are getting popped early, he’s probably thinking he should be in that tier, and wouldn’t want to accept a R3-5 offer closer to where he should go based on stuff
I’m intrigued, but what do you mean about his stuff being TM-unfriendly?
Never mind, TrackMan-unfriendly. You saying he doesn’t have much movement or spin?
Ya
Eric’s strong comments give me some hesitance, but I disagree on Baltimore’s draft. I think Westburg is seriously overrated because his hit tool is weak and while he may stick at shortstop he’s not likely to be plus. Servideo and Baumler and Mayo look good for where they were picked but I don’t think any of them deserved to go dramatically higher. To me, this draft looks like they got slightly above value on their Day 2 picks and way, way below value on their Day 1 picks.
Overall, I like Kjerstad, and I don’t mind the idea of cutting an underslot deal with him. But it seems like the Orioles are mostly punting on hit tool right now in favor of power and this is a super-risky way to run things, and on top of that they might not wind up spending all of their bonus money. I think there had to be a better backup plan than this after Bitsko didn’t fall to them.
I really think the narrative the O’s were banking on Bitsko is just piling on the O’s. Who is banking their draft on landing a HS pitcher who isn’t even the consensus top HS arm? I see serious potential for four starters in the O’s draft, Mayo is a big talent that I didn’t think would sign but they have the dough
Heyman reports that they have already agreed to a deal on Mayo ($1.75M)
https://twitter.com/JonHeyman/status/1271413522061287426?s=20
Is it better or worse to say that they had no plan at all than no backup plan? They’re not even going to spend their whole bonus pool. If this was the plan, their plan stinks. They got worse talent than a bunch of the guys picking after them in the first round and better talent than the guys picking before them in the 4th round (or 3rd round?). That’s a lousy trade.
The Orioles passed on zero guys who have anywhere near the chance Torkelson does to be a franchise’ anchor. That they got worse talent is a really nebulous statement and opinion drawn from not following really subjective rankings and evaluations. They hardlined the first round and took from the safest first round demographic: productive multi-year college hitters with first round grades, one a SS to make it even safer, and a history of hitting with wood bats somewhere in there. There’s nothing crazy or nonsensical or draft killing about that strategy
Were they probably hoping for Bitsko or Walker with the Westburg pick? Sure! Should they have had the mindset that landing one of two HSers is the only way to salvage the draft knowing only 160 players from a great draft were getting picked? Nope!
Personally I strongly suspect if Westburg was a HS SS with the same frame, tools, and question marks (minus the outstanding but imperfect NCAA and excellent CCBL of course), the pick would be lauded
I’m getting a little frustrated with people being PC and defending the Orioles being overly-cute and ending up with a fringe haul.
They underslot Kjerstad (~2.8 M) then they take Westburg for slot or less to set them up to go big in rounds 2 & 3; they could’ve taken Kelley and Wilcox and paid them ~3.5M & ~2.2M, respectively, and probably signed them both without taking seniors in the 4th & 5th.
It seems like they got to Haskin and said ‘oh, we like the player, we’ll take him and overslot later,’ then did it again with Servideo. Both good players. But Washington gave Wilcox a hard look @ 22. A ton of teens were on Kelley in 20s-30s, teams just get sketchy with HS RHP. I actually like all the players who Baltimore drafted a lot in a vacuum (Servideo, Mayo, Baumler esp), but when you are underslotting @ pick 2, it’s so you can target elite talent later in the draft and Baltimore did not do that.
Re: Kelley + Wilcox
I’m not even really on Kelley too much. I’m not even projecting on him, just looking at the stuff he has right now, his control, and his frame. That’s an innings-eating #4. Not even speculating on ceiling.
Wilcox to me may have more untapped potential then any college player in the draft. He degenerated at Georgia on every level, from his stuff to his delivery, to his body. A team with a good dev prog (um San Diego?) could move him toward his #2 ceiling, but even if things don’t work out, he easily projects as a major bullpen weapon.
Wilcox has a higher ceiling than Kjerstad.
This whole idea that Kjerstad was in the same tier as Lacy or Martin is really questionable, and you seem to be very committed to it. That’s the core of your argument, and I would buy it if it weren’t for the fact that he has terrible pitch recognition. Come to think of it, so does Westburg.
Your argument is predicated on the idea that this sort of thing is fixable, which is true to a certain extent, but for both of them “fixing it” moves them from terrible to mediocre. I think Kjerstad’s case he has so much power that he can still be good because guys will pitch around him (and it will work if he doesn’t swing at it!), but not Westburg.
Your argument would hold a lot more water if they had selected Gonzales instead, or if they had Pittsburgh’s selections.
Gonzales definitely wouldn’t have cut as much ( I guess it doesn’t matter since they don’t need as much money for overslot) since he was universally viewed as the better prospect.
I would never have taken Kjerstad over Lacy or Emerson Hancock. Ever. People care too much about backspinning FBs/computers and just aren’t using their eyes with Hancock. Even if you don’t like him, you don’t think he is an inning eatings #4? Regardless of ceiling, a floor of an innings-eating #4, is just more valuable than Kjerstad @ pick 2. IP is one of the most valuable things SP bring to the table, especially in today’s game. Tired bullpens perform terribly. On a related noted, I think Max Meyer is a 120 IP max guy.
I don’t like Westburg either-think people are looking at the frame and not the tools. Baltimore draft grade: D
Broken Record: the Georgia Pitchers were undervalued.
Agreed, Ryan Webb going undrafted surprised me. Shit, I’d go back to last year with Tony Locey
I think this one is for me…
– I actually don’t see Martin in the same tier as Lacy, give me Lacy easy, but college pitchers in the first also have a finnicky history
– The actual “core of my argument” is that the safest demographic, by far, in the first round of the MLB draft is the first round graded multi-year college starter bat flexing power and with a history of wood bats. It’s a strategy that works, Cubs won a WS leaning heavy on this. You’re caught up in perceived upside and rankings but all that nonsense shifts once picks are made and things are out of the fantasy realm into reality
– End of the day in Westburg we’re talking a 6’3″ college SS who hit .301/.401/.468 in 735 intern PAs between the NCAA, PGL, and CCBL. The CCBL is a model staple for college hitters, he hit .326/.385/.516 with a sub-20% K rate which is outright excellent. You can take that lightly and ding imperfect plate discipline, but practically speaking in the world of the MLB draft this is a relatively safe bet to be a MLer and the ceiling can go from there on merit rather than imagination as it should
– Gonzales is a stout bat first RHH from a small conference limited to 2B, getting the much more rare LHH power on the bigger framed Kjerstad is explainable and also makes sense
I’ll take a potential ace over a good bat with capable defense “any day of the week and twice on Sunday.” But, I’m not the one drafting – good job KC.
They seem to have salvaged things somewhat on Day Two (I like Mayo) but it’s hard not to think that they were banking on Bitsko and/or Jordan Walker being available in Comp A. Pace Eric’s Day One commentary, they were close as almost no one but TB could have taken Bitsko that late without blowing up their pool.
Personally I think Baltimore had the 2nd worst draft considering context (Boston the worst). Heston’s plate discipline scares me and the rest of the draft was ok but uninspiring to make up for the money they had to do a underslot deal with Heston. I also think the gap in Gonzales and Heston is very significant and it was obvious Nick was going 6 at the earliest, even if Heston was about 1 mill less much prefer Gonzales.
Re: Boston: I have no idea what they’re doing. The vibes around Bloom don’t seem great either.
Would be very curious to hear you expand on the vibes part.
So normally, you cut underslot deals at the top and then you can fill out the rest of your draft with a bunch of guys who are harder to sign afterwards, but neither of them had enough picks to really make it worth it. I don’t disagree with the premise, but the execution didn’t work for me.
I do agree about the Dodgers. I was skeptical about Beeter in the first round but he would have been a great pick where they took Knack, and Knack would have been a great pick where they took Beeter. They have three live arms, all of whom could potentially start or throw crazy heat in the bullpen. I wouldn’t necessarily be thrilled with Taylor but he could be a four-corners platoon bat (switch hitter) who can also serve as an emergency 3rd catcher–the bat looks pretty nice, so he represents decent value there.
As a Yankees fan, the Dodgers first 3 picks honestly intimidated tfo of me
And here’s a list of interesting college guys who aren’t at Florida who didn’t get drafted:
Pitchers:
-Seth Lonsway
-Gavin Williams
-Mason Erla
-Hugh Fisher
-Jackson Leath
-Trenton Denholm
-Andrew Abbott
-Justin Fall
-Seymour Carson
-Ryan Webb
-Kevin Abel
-Michael Kirian
-Devin Fontenot
-Johnny Cuevas
Position Players:
-Parker Chavers
-Alex Toral
-Michael Rothberg
-Luke Waddell
-Casey Opitz
-Elijah Cabell
-Tyler McDonough
-Grant Richardson
Will be interesting to see if they’ll return to school or sign overseas. I can’t imagine any of them will take the $20K. Based on Eric’s reporting and the injury risk for pitchers, I’d guess the healthy pitchers get overseas offers and the rest go back to school.
Good list…Some adds for me would be Jacob Teter 1B, Bobby Seymour 1B, Matt Mervis 1B, Charles King RHP…
I was surprised no one took a run at Chavers late. The upside is significant if he’s healthy, but the flaws are compelling enough I’d challenge him to turn down the money. I guess it’s possible he sent the signal that he was willing to come out again next year.
Chavers came out with something when they shifted down to 5 rounds and MLB got all cheap that he didn’t want to be drafted. Personally all over him.
Option A) Austin Hendrick @ 13, and Christian Roa @ 49
Option B) Bailey/Foscue/Abel/Howard/your pick college arm @ 13 and Chavers @ 49
Hmmm lol
Very surprised to see not even a analytical heavy team take a chance on Abel even with the TJ. He’s got a mid rotation profile. Lonsway is also very interesting to me even though there is a good chance he’s a reliever. Has a ridiculous curve
Great stuff, really appreciate just the huge amount of content thank you
Sucks to hear Mace is unsignable as a UDFA
I can’t imagine anyone rated as an FV40 or higher by even 1-2 of the public sources and is a college junior/JUCO/prep player is going to sign for $20K. They’ll get more to play abroad or they’ll go to school (or back to school). With the extra year of eligibility and the NPB looming, they might even have a hard time signing the college seniors (although that’s where I’d look). I’d guess the only guys on Eric’s board who are realistic targets are the ones labeled COL-H on Eric’s board…especially guys who are a little older like Jason Bush, Joe Butler, etc.
Necessary hot takes:
– With Kelley knocked out of the first, the best bet for fastest prep to the MLs may be Ed Howard. Even as a HS, his floor barring catastrophe may be as high as a first division SS in the mold of Nick Ahmed. He has been a nationally relevant baseball player for over half a decade already, held his ground through the pre-draft nonsense, and is basically as well known as anyone in this draft. If I were the Cubs, goals would be getting him to 6’3″ 215 or so by 20-21 with max power, not worrying that the gains on offense will pull him off SS. A “fully” realized bat first Ed Howard starting at SS for the Cubs is one of the handful most marketable players in the MLs
– The Tigers laid waste to this draft. Torkelson, Dingler, Cabrera, Cruz, Workman…Added to an org that has Mize, Manning, Greene, Skubal, Boyd, and legendary Isaac Paredes, and possibly others coming up
– Baltimore’s getting a ton of guff for Kjerstad but practically speaking there is nothing wrong with the pick. Austin Martin’s concerns about power, defense/position, and a lack of success with wood bats (Kjerstad hit, Martin didn’t with Team USA last Summer) make him less of a slam dunk than Torkelson should be. There is supposedly approach concerns, but he logged a .400 OBP at every stop in college. Another popular alternative I see is Veen, who may be where Kjerstad is in three years as a giant LHH corner OF slugger with swing and miss concerns. He is far from an ideal prospect but the only reason I wanted the Cubs to stay away is because Kjertad is too similar to Schwarber. For all the hullabaloo, they may walk out with four starters (Kjerstad, Westburg, Haskin, Mayo) and have at least two badass prospects in Rutschman, Hall, and Rodriguez
– The Pirates may soon have a starting IF of Bell – Gonzales – Tucker – Hayes with depth and some OF talent behind them (Reynolds, probably Oneill Cruz), getting there
– All the Cubs’ coolest rivals had fun drafts…Cardinals got Walker, Winn, Hence to open…Brewers did two better with Mitchell, Zamora, Warren, Wiemer, and Cantrelle…Mets with Crow-Armstrong, Ginn, and Greene…White Sox got a potential rotation anchor in Kelley…Pirates got a guy who sets their IF…Dodgers took some fresh meat with their first three picks but I love the Vogel and Carson picks…Reds got Hendrick and Boyle…Nats got Cavalli, Henry, and Parker
– I can already see Asa Lacy and Brady Singer as one of my favorite rotation duos of The Future, FA 2028 herewecome. Secretly I think the Blue Jays woud swap Martin for Lacy right now and also yesterday if they could.
– I really like Martin in Toronto with Vlad Jr., Bichette, and Biggio to take the eyes off
– Some other great org fits: Veen and Romo to the Rockies, Burns to the Indians, Wells to the Yankees, Abel to the Phillies (there’s some Arrieta to him), Sabato and Soularie to the Twins, Detmers to the Angels, Santos to the Astros, Soderstrom to the A’s, Jordan and the Red Sox, Rangers and Foscue
– Non-rivals with good drafts…The Mariners have a fun trio with Hancock, DeLoach, and Polcovich…Blue Jays with Martin, Eyk, Frasso, and Britton…I like the OF the Rangers took after Foscue too…I like Caissie with the Padres, D’Backs getting Vukovich pits their class together…Marlins really came back strong with Fulton, Nicolas, and Eder…Giants with Bailey, Schmitt, and Glowenke….Rays with Bitsko/Williams…I really like Blakely and Caissie for the Angels and Padres
Pretty hard for anyone to botch this draft, don’t really see one I hate
– MLB’s website still just way better than the other sports’ still, especially on draft day
– Cubs…Carraway was a pretty necessary pick in hindsight if Abbott is unsignable so sweet…Getting Nwogu a round after Haskin, same demographic as a multi-year no-CCBL RHH CF/LF with some skills, may prove to be a steal…Little is nice depth in preparation for Lindor trade 2021, as a pure
reliever there’s a shot Carraway misses or falls off fast…Moreno’s a fine 5th round pick
I think Howard is going to need some time. My pick for first prep to the majors is Hassell. The Padres are aggressive about promoting guys and he’s got a more advanced hit tool than anyone else in the class. I think Crow-Armstrong is my #2. Excepting those two and Veen/Kelley all the other ones are your standard prep prospects: You’re projecting whether they’re going to make it all, whether they’ll do it quickly.
Nah, I see Howard’s polished defense as a higher utility base to build from than Hassell’s polished swing, and frankly both guys are such tested showcase performers that I don’t see any difference in hit tool.
Hotter takes are that I like actually liked Hassell more as a pitcher than bat…Liked Caissie more than Hassell on draft day and Hudson Head from last year…and finally Hassell the bat works best bulked up maybe to first base size
Preller was an absolute machine during this draft. His best draft yet
Howard’s bat needs some work, Hassell’s swing stays in the zone longer than Ed’s. You can certainly argue that Ed has more upside/more raw tools but i don’t see him as a fast mover
Hassell is a good pick to move fast in the Kelenic mode. Hit tool is the best predictor for prep progression and Hassell is definitely ahead of Howard.
Missed the Day One broadcast but I saw video of Corbin sharing my Martin 1.5 comp to Rendon 1.6. I was half-joking but now I’m all in. Lol
The worries with Martin are over the top, I don’t get why the industry has seemingly downgraded him from before the year started. He’s still got elite OBP skills (10 walks/2 SO’s before the season shutdown. The power “concerns” are very odd, you’d think we are talking about nick madrigal or some slap hitter. He’s iso’d 200+ since start of sophomore year and projects to get bigger, he should have average power. The defensive questions aren’t really significant when you compare it to all the other position players that went top 10. He’s unlikely to stick at short but can be above average at 2b/3b, he’d need reps in CF but projects well there too. I see a potential start with a high floor
OK, so now what is to stop the Yankees and Dodgers, etc leveraging being the most famous teams and signing the next 50 best signable players? This whole 5 round thing seems like a really stupid idea for 2/3 of major league teams.
$20k is so far below what actual prospects expect that there aren’t 50 actual prospects willing to sign for it.
My understanding is that $20K is the sorts of bonuses you get in rounds 11+ (and most likely 21+). If you think you’re going in the Top 10 rounds in 2021 or have a six-figure offer from overseas you’re never going to accept that.
Teams will find some guys, maybe even a lot of them, but not any that get mentioned in a five-round draft conversation.
I’m pretty sure bonuses never really go below 6 figures no matter where you get drafted. The Royals 38th round pick signed for $125k last year.
$20k is such an insignificant amount of money for these guys its not likely to entice anyone worthwhile. If you think you have a chance of being drafted period next year you are better off waiting. I dont see it as a big problem.
I was curious about this because I swear I’ve seen picks sign for $5k-$40K. But it does look like anyone selected from picks 11-40 can sign for $125K or less and it doesn’t count against the bonus pool. That’s an unbelievable deal, and it makes me wonder why not all teams do that.
I looked over at the Brewers and Dodgers because aside from the Royals it’s hard to find details for a lot of teams in the later rounds. The Royals all signed for $125K after pick #10. The Brewers look like they signed 10 guys for less than that amount, and some of them in the $20K range or even lower. The Dodgers did the same for about 5.
To me, this seems penny wise and pound foolish. If you can spent up to $125K then you should probably select guys you think are worth that much. I’m not saying the Royals are going to get gems out of this and the Brewers and Dodgers aren’t (the Brewers and Dodgers do seem ahead of the Royals in a few other areas) but I suspect the Royals have a healthier attitude about this than the Brewers and Dodgers do.
So, to answer your question:
1) Yes, there are players who sign for $20K or so.
2) The fact that it doesn’t count against the bonus pool makes me question why you’re selecting guys you think aren’t even worth $125K. It seems like you should have a better sense of guys you think are sleepers.
(the Mets also signed some guys in rounds 4-10 last year who signed for $20K so they could fit in Matthew Allan, so they do exist in other orgs too, but I understand that one a little better)
(edit: The Twins fall somewhere in between the Brewers and Dodgers. So that’s three teams, all with good front offices, so maybe I was too harsh above)
JUST TO BE CLEAR, I’M WITH THE PLAYERS.
But, damn if this 20k deal didn’t throw the draftees under the bus. What an awful terrible offer for every player who would have otherwise gone 6th-10th round. I’ll be happy to see some or most of them go overseas.
RoyalsFan#14321,
Nailed it!!!
We shall see, but I think a lot of kids are going to want to chase that pro dream and it will come before bonuses.
Because 20K from the Yankees or the Dodgers is the same as 20K from the Pirates or Royals? They can’t outspend any individual team on any individual player. Also, we’re dealing with “kids” right now, who still have their own fandom. If their favorite team comes calling and offers 20K, they might be inclined to sign with the team they’ve rooted for all their life, as opposed to the team they rooted against. Most importantly, a player being signed might look at his quickest path to the majors. They might see the Dodgers and Yankees stacked with talent, so instead will opt to sign with the Royals, or another smaller-market rebuilding club. That’s the advantage.
The disadvantage? The Yankees, Dodgers, Red Sox, etc., the wealthier of teams, will still have an advantage because of money. Beyond their brands, which will be appealing, they can point to their great minor league complexes, their development staff, the money they put into development, and recent, tangible results of players who came through their systems on the major league roster. Their money also means they should have more “boots on the ground,” able to identify the best remaining players, research them prior, and have relationships with them to sign them. That’s why the A’s furloughing area scouts was a bad idea, but also why the Royals approach was a great one.
So the top teams still have an advantage, but not to the degree you seem to fear.
Absolutely love what the White Sox did in a shortened draft. I would’ve loved to have taken Kelley in the first round. And if Crochet’s improvement in “stuff” from last spring to the most recent fall/spring is legit, he may end up being one of the steals of the draft (assuming he can stay healthy). Either way, they got elite arm talent from the left and right side, so it’s hard to complain.
I love the White Sox draft strategy the last 2 years of just drafting their guys and figuring out the money situation/underslots later. It’s like their mentality is: “we have so many young impact guys coming up the only way to move the needle with impact guys”
I just had this thought, and I would appreciate some insight: did teams draft differently because of what’s going on? Did teams prefer one type of player over another that was different than usual? I would think higher floor/lower ceiling, less risky types of players would be preferred because of one fewer year of development, but does anyone else see any surprising trends?
Is there a typo in the Mariners analysis? You think they’re all likely to be regulars? That’d be pretty wild.
I thought he said he thinks there’s unlikely to be a regular in the lot. The M’s are either crazy about the cape league, or see some slightly different way to evaluate than most teams.
Random but whoever likened Ed Howard to Gavin Lux the other day was onto something…Impressively similar and of course I’d argue Howard’s long amateur track record as a tippy top guy makes him the better prospect to start
I can’t get enough of this pick…No doubt the Cubs will use all the Science, Math, and Technology available in their Hitting Lab to get a super duper star
The comp that I keep circling back to for Ed Howard is Bobby Witt. Witt may have a larger frame/power, but the defense/speed/acumen profile is extremely similar. You can say what you want about Witt growing up around the game and playing the right way, but you look at his swing/results and go “wow, this guy has a 40 hit tool.” I like Howard a lot.
The only HS SS prospect taken in the last 9 drafts I would rank with Howard as a prospect is Witt. Everyone else is a late riser (Correa, Russell, etc) without the track record or unsure to stick (Abrams) at the position…Back it up one draft and I’d have Howard as my third, at worst since secretly I like him more than Witt, SS in the past drafts ten drafts behind Lindor (who, for sure, I would take over Howard)
Now that the draft is over was I the only one really in on Ricky Tiedemann? He gave off the Luzardo in HS vibe to me
Wouldn’t quite go that far but I liked him
The Rangers have allegedly adjusted how they draft. As I understand it, they are getting away from drafting big power raw athletes in favor of players with less raw power and athletic ability but more development in skills other than power (like contact and lower strikeouts).
I’m sure this has been answered elsewhere, but are players more likely to develop unexpected power or unexpected improvements in contact rate and strikeouts?
For instance, would a minor league system full of high contact, low strikeout players be more likely to luck into a few guys that develop power…or would a system full of high power, swing and miss players get more lucky with players who develop better contact and lower strikeout rates?
I think there are a lot of contributing factors, but in a bubble, I’d imagine it’d be easier to improve power than hitting ability. Pure guess though.
Any thoughts on Hudson Haskin? From what I’ve seen, the Orioles might have a real steal.
Great draft coverage, Eric!
The appearance on the EW podcast was great also!