Day 1 Mega Draft Night Chat

Eric A Longenhagen: Good evening, chat. It’s draft night number one. Hope everyone is ready to engage with a Major League Baseball thing, I’m quite excited.

Eric A Longenhagen: Here’s a list of the chainsaws I’m juggling tonight:
-chat
-sourcing picks and rumors from draft rooms and tweeting them
-updating the draft portion of the board with team/pick# in the “Trend” column
-Maybe sliding players onto their drafted team’s prospect list on the pro side of The Board

Eric A Longenhagen: You should assume, if I’m not engaging here for a little stretch, that I’m doing one of those other things

Eric A Longenhagen: Let’s do some questions before the Tigers go on the clock

Daniel: Dream scenario for Mariners at 6?

Eric A Longenhagen: Baltimore cutting a deal at 2 and someone they like more than Hancock falling to them.

Matt: What are the odds bitsko goes to UVA

Eric A Longenhagen: Non-zero, but I think someone will do pay him.

JD: Texas is taking Sabato at 14. I assume it’s underslot for a good amount. Who are we connected to at 50 then maybe overslot? I saw possibly Jake Vogel

Eric A Longenhagen: I don’t think it’ll be much under slot, if at all. Sabato has other homes in the teens. I have no names attached to them later.

Jorge: Crochet is mocked to CWS by you/Kiley/Pipeline. That seems like a change in philosophy, no? Still college but much riskier than past few years in 1st round.

Eric A Longenhagen: It does and, remember, new scouting director there.

MB: Does the fact that this is a five-round draft with lots players available as free agents afterwards make Houston’s draft-related sign-stealing penalty more severe, less severe, or equally severe as it would be in a year with a normal draft?

Eric A Longenhagen: More severe. Not only do they have less flexibility and room for creativity than they would have with more picks and more pool space to play with, but it might be harder to recruit players given the bad PR from the sign stealing. They’re certainly among the best orgs at player dev, and that’s a point in their favor for signing 20k guys, but their system is also loaded with arms so I don’t know how many 20k guys represent upgrades.

Billy G: I’ve known THE BOARD was great, but didn’t know the full extent until recently. I’ve been playing around with some of the data and it’s awesome. As an A’s fan, it’s a little alarming to see how concentrated the farm is top heavy and old their system is, especially considering their minor leaguer pay faux pas. Will the team be able to infuse the minors with talent or can they survive if some of these players (Beck, Davidson, Buelvas, Puason) to hit?

Eric A Longenhagen: People with other teams think, unless OAK is the only team interested in you, post-draft 20k guys will look to go elsewhere in response to OAK’s initial decision not to pay minor leaguers

Billy G: I truly don’t get why Ed Howard seems to be falling, or at least have a very large range, for someone who seems guaranteed to stick at short and is signable. What gives? Is it really just about not seeing him this spring?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes. Some teams had arm strength concerns last summer but that’s so minor.

seth r: any chance max meyer slips to the Reds?

Eric A Longenhagen: nada, he wouldn’t get past SD

Eric A Longenhagen: Sounds like DET might announce Tork as a 3B

Eric A Longenhagen: People picking behind Baltimore think they’re cutting underslot

Eric A Longenhagen: Max Meyer 3. Now where does Lacy go?

Eric A Longenhagen: Some teams were worried about the medical, others are not

Guest: Whoa Baltimore

5 Run Homer: Can Tork actually play 3B?

Eric A Longenhagen: I had a 3 on his arm in high school so I don’t think so. I suppose it’s worth a try.

Johnny Eutaw: How far underslot does the Kjerstad deal have to be for that pick to end up not looking bad?

Eric A Longenhagen: If he signs for $4.5 mil it’s strong

Eric A Longenhagen: Especially if they clean up at 30 and 39

BG: Roughly how many texts will you send today to Kiley and Keith? If I set the line at 140.5, you going O/U?

Eric A Longenhagen: Kiley and I used to spend 10 straight hours on the phone today. Wished him luck briefly this am.

Cory: How nice is it to have something else to dedicate some of your attention to?

Eric A Longenhagen: really nice

Matthew: Is Meyer an underslot as well? Are more teams doing them because they don’t have much scouting

Eric A Longenhagen: Can’t see him being under slot, he had homes all over the next several picks, what incentive does the advisor have to agree to under?

Eric A Longenhagen: Hearing Austin Martin to Jays but people seem less sure than previous picks….

mrkevinschwarz: The lineup for Toronto is going to be awesome

Pumpsie: Can Martin start in CF in the majors next year?

Eric A Longenhagen: We just don’t know yet. Didn’t really have a chance to see him play there after coach Corbin moved him because of the pandemic

mrkevinschwarz: Any word what Pirates going to do

Eric A Longenhagen: Sounds like Gonzalez but I’m not totally sure, not sure enough to officially report it

Jebrini: What do you think? Is Foscue more likely at 10-15? or 20-25?

Eric A Longenhagen: 10-15, vacuum of college bats I think he fills

J: Where do you think Veen ends up?

Eric A Longenhagen: Rockies

Eric A Longenhagen: just great value at that point, it’s what I’d do

Billy G: Padres going Hassell over Veen?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think so, but those two names were the guys it seemed like the room was split between. I’m a Veen guy, personally. I don’t have confirmation they’ve gone Hassell yet.

Barbs: This draft is wild so far.

Eric A Longenhagen: Yerp

Luc S: Heard anything about the Angels possibly taking Bailey?

Eric A Longenhagen: He makes sense from a demographic standpoint (young for college, up the middle, performed) but I have no direct dope

Trent Hauser: Can Hassell play CF?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think so but don’t think he’s plus or anything. Some orgs think it’s a corner.

Eric A Longenhagen: Sounds like Angels mix is Reid Detmers and Ed Howard, might depend on $…

biscuit pants: spencer torkelton is a grade 80 name

Eric A Longenhagen: agreed

DJ Spin: I saw some chatter that Hendrick’s stock was slipping. Do you think he could slide all the way to the Pirates at #31?

Eric A Longenhagen: No, I think he goes 12

Eric A Longenhagen: GIants mix sounds like a couple guys right now….

Hooper: If you’re Austin Martin isn’t going to the Blue Jays a best case scenario out of the teams in the top 5? Such a great time to come into that organization.

Eric A Longenhagen: Agree, their core is so, so exciting. I’m jonesing for bseball

RS: Soderstrom to SF?

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s one of them….

J: any chance for Abel with giants?? please

Eric A Longenhagen: doesn’t sound like he is

Eric A Longenhagen: I have a bunch of people who think Bailey goes 13 but none of them are sure for sure

Eric A Longenhagen: so I’m not tweeting it but there you go.

Ace: The Giants go w/ a C? Obviously you pick BPA, but is this the highest upside player that exists for them? And C seems like QB – where so much of the value is the position involved.

Eric A Longenhagen: Just having seen a lot of Tommy Joseph, and knowing what catchin inventory is around the industry, it’s fine having both of them

DM: Farhan strikes! College performer to the team that already owns Bart, lol

TG19: who is in play for philly

Eric A Longenhagen: Abel, Cavalli, maybe Ed Howard, maybe Foscue if Texas doesn’t take him

romorr: Not overreacting to the Orioles pick at 2, but what are some names that need to be there at 30/39 for Elias to strut around Baltimore this weekend?

Eric A Longenhagen: Bitsko, PCA, maybe Wilcox?

AJ: where are some landing spots for Soderstrom now?

Eric A Longenhagen: Mets?

Pat: Elias said the other day that with a pick as high as 2, they have to take the player they like the best and if it happens to be under slot, even better. Do you buy Kjerstad was the top guy on their board with the number two pick?

Eric A Longenhagen: No but I bet the gap between them is basically what I have on The Board.

Kevin James: who is the top arm that is MLB ready as a reliever to start this short season?

Eric A Longenhagen: Meyer

matt: Thoughts on Foscue to Texas?

Eric A Longenhagen: Good pick, more imporantly a potential sign of things changing philosophically in Texas

Garrett: Do the Cubs go arm or bat at 16?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m about to report they’re taking Howard

AJ: Why does Mick Abel sound like a very Phillies name

Eric A Longenhagen: Because you can hear Harry Kalas saying it in your mind’s ear

Jeff: The “player comp” on the MLB channel for everyone drafted so far tonight has been an MVP candidate. I like Mick Abel fine, but comparing him to Justin Verlander seems a bit premature. What an amazing draft, very wow.

Eric A Longenhagen: Casual fans want comps. I think it’s fine.

Jackson: ESPN is comparing metal bat exit velocities to 2019 MLB exit velds too. These networks have no shame giving fans high expectations

Eric A Longenhagen: BBcor bats don’t have way higher exits than wood, it’s the pitching quality that is the difference

Joe: Do you see the Yankees going college player only?

Eric A Longenhagen: taht was pre-draft buzz but it’s been a wild night

Eric A Longenhagen: I have no idea how the mock is doing, btw

Steve: Who’s a player you wish would end up in a top-tier org for player development (dodgers, houston, etc)

Eric A Longenhagen: Tanner WItt

Jackson: 6/16 on your mock so far. Pretty solid all things considered

Eric A Longenhagen: yeah I’ll take that considering the start

Eric A Longenhagen: Red Sox might be waaaay crazy or super conservative

Tom from New York: My buddy just said that if Alek Manoah were going in this years draft he’d be a 2nd rounder… provocative? Accurate?

Eric A Longenhagen: No, he probably goes a little later but not that late. He’s ahead of Bobby Miller and those types

AJ: Nick Yorke from the top rope?

Luie: Wtf

….: They couldn’t get Nick Yorke in the second round?

Eric A Longenhagen: Again, he’s almost certainly under slot so they can go nuts at all their picks. Is it dangerous because they don’t have a 2? Yes. We’ll see how few HS players and Boras clients go.

Daniel: Eric, you talked about potentially punting the draft before, is it possible this is what Boston is doing if Yorke is set on going to Arizona?

Eric A Longenhagen: No, I’ve now explained this in three places. C’mon chat

Jake: Earlier question might have been worded wrong do you think crochet if he makes it to mlb is more likely to be in bullpen or starting for the white sox

Eric A Longenhagen: pen

Guest: Detmers wasn’t a “sexy” pick, but he looks like a pretty solid get for the Angels. Could fill-in that “Jarrod Washburn/Andrew Heaney/Tyler Skagg/Joe Saunders” role without the major injury red flags.

RAndoM: Jarvis seems to be a bit underwhelming. Is this an underslot selection, or am I missing something about him?

Eric A Longenhagen: Dbacks type. Fastball has big carry, plus changeup, command enables the breaking ball mix (which is well-designed) to playu above raw grades. It’s just like Gallen

AJ: could Soderstrom be a fit with TB?

Eric A Longenhagen: Potentially. Same advisor as Libby…

Joe: Anything on what the Brewers are doing?

Eric A Longenhagen: Standing by my mock right now

DM: Is Cade Cavalli broken?

Eric A Longenhagen: No, but this is making me feel like teams picking in the comp and early in the second round will have plenty of college arms to pick from with their 2nd rounder and therefore are morelikely to do HS types in the comp

Hassan: Are there any players with Type 1 Diabetes currently in MLB?

Eric A Longenhagen: Michael Taylor was one (maybe not type 1), I bet there are others.

Guest: What are you wearing?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m in my undies and a t-shirt from Target (it’s 104 today)

Ian: You said the angels pick was coming down to $… Was their pick underslot?

Eric A Longenhagen: Unsure, perhaps. Assume Howard isn’t over or maybe wanted more money to play for someone other than Cubs?

Yogi: 25% chance that Soderstrom slips to Oakland at #26?

Eric A Longenhagen: looking that way…

MB: Thoughts on the Brewers picking Mitchell?

Eric A Longenhagen: Good value. Not all that different from Travis Swaggerty a couple years ago and he’s a top 100 guy now

Dan: So is Hancock healthy? Has there been any updates? Would you have taken him or Gonzales at 6?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, no medical flags on Hancock based on pre-draft work. https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2020-mlb-draft/summary?s…

RAndoM: Think Bitsko drops to Comp Round A, or will someone take him before then?

Eric A Longenhagen: Anyone who pops him from here on out in round 1, except maybe TB, would have to mortage the rest of their draft. Or at least a huge chunk

STL: You had Jordan Walker at 41 on The Board. Did the Cardinals just make another Delvin Perez-shaped mistake?

Eric A Longenhagen: Nah, he’s in this range for most clubs. I was worried about how his body developed during the offseason. he was in the same tier as Veen for Kiley and after last summer.

Barry: What’s Cleveland doing with these savings?

Eric A Longenhagen: Whatever they want in the comp round now

Chris: would be helpful if you would post picks as they happen for those not watching but wanting to follow along

Eric A Longenhagen: they’re going up on The Board

Jay: Tucker to Cleveland: Reach?

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s under slot, almost certainly

matt: was tucker linked to cleveland at all?

Eric A Longenhagen: I struggled linking him to a club, just knew it was likely to happen in round 1 somewhere

AHume92: Orioles must be fuming.

RyanW: Intrigue!

Sonny: Bitsko Boom! Kind of excited for that org to get that arm

Eric A Longenhagen: it’s very exciting

Jake: What are your thoughts on bitsko to rays

Eric A Longenhagen: on talent, a steal. And they can cut in the comp round to make sure the deal gets done

John: Talk to me about Kelley

Eric A Longenhagen: big bodied high schooler with huge arm strength, plus changeup, curve isn’t great and some worry about how the bod holds up.

Eric A Longenhagen: I don’t have Atlanta but looks like Oakland Soderstrom

Guest: Yankees getting a good selection of college arms now

Eric A Longenhagen: agreed

Chris: Odds orioles get soderstrom?

Andy: Who do the Orioles need to get now to make up for that #2 pick now that Bitsko is gone?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think if Soderstrom doesn’t go to Oak then it might be because the orioles bough him back

Kelley: We’re not selling jeans here.

Eric A Longenhagen: No, we’re playing sports.

Eric A Longenhagen: Guess what you use for that?

mets fan: Any chance Crow-Armstrong goes under slot?

Eric A Longenhagen: doubt it

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m probably gonna go once the comp starts so I can start writing

Guest: Shuster a serious underslot guy? Feels early for him to go

Eric A Longenhagen: Teams seemed on him in the comp round so maybe under slot but not by a lot

Guest: Beeter to NY?

Eric A Longenhagen: think it’s Austin Wells

Vroom Vroom Guy: And how do you separate a “spike” as anomaly or sustained gain?

Eric A Longenhagen: it’s tough, def recency bias in some situations. If it’s coincided with a change in training, I’d be more confident

Padres458: Where would CJ Abrams be taken in this draft?

Eric A Longenhagen: After the summer he had? Maybe first.

Barry: Can Wells stick at C or is this a bat without a position?

Eric A Longenhagen: Not a C for me but some of that is because he’s still not far removed from a shoulder issue.

Chris: There are going to be some unbelievable pitchers available tomorrow….

Eric A Longenhagen: Agreed, some of them will need to be over slot

Eric A Longenhagen: Okay, I’m gonna split. Thanks for coming tonight. Look for my day one analysis and day two rumors tomorrow morning.

Eric A Longenhagen: Maybe I’ll chat again (no Woj’ing tomorrow)