Eno Sarris Baseball Chat — 2/2/17

8:43
Eno Sarris: The last few days have been more like

8:44
Eno Sarris: when I’m searching for my inner

12:01
Paul R: Ever play in a league that had a 3rd place prize?

12:01
Eno Sarris: all the time

12:01
Gub Gub: gub gub

12:01
Eno Sarris: bug

12:02
Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: Suppose I had a newborn son. What small steps would pay the biggest dividends in maximizing his chances of a successful MLB career? E.g. making him bat lefty.

12:02
Eno Sarris: Switch more than just lefty I guess, since if he’s a true lefty there are positions he can’t play.

12:03
Dan B.: At what price are you willing to gamble on Puig this year? Lets say standard $260 budget 12 teamer.

12:04
Eno Sarris: I still believe, actually. Not in 30/30, that’s the 1%, but in decent power with some steals and good BA. I’d go to 10 bucks. Auction calculator says 7 on a .284/21/7 projection in 540 PA.

12:05
Numbnuts: What kind of changes can Chris Bosio & co. make in order for Eddie Butler to be a part of a future Cubs rotation?

12:06
Eno Sarris: Story going up today, but it’s clear he has to find his old changeup. The difference in movement is so stark it seems like he went from a splitter to a regular change. It’s about that time to try the splitter again, even if he was nervous about health or whatever.

12:06
Duffman: Think the Brewers move Braun soon? His full no trade kicks in soon, and the Brewers will have a ton of young OF knocking on the door soon. If not a trade, should they look into moving him to first base?

12:07
Eno Sarris: They trying to keep his trade value as high as possible. I think they might have to eat some money, even though 4/80 at this point is pretty reasonable, if they want good prospects, but I bet it happens this deadline.

12:07
Gub Gub: Who can you squeeze more fantasy value out of: Orlando Arcia, Ozzie Albies or Raul Mondesi?

12:07
Eno Sarris: Albies. I think he’ll have a good BA and some steals.

12:08
Kris: Benitendi or Mazara in fantasy? Real life?

12:09
Eno Sarris: It might be Mazara in fantasy and Ben in real life, particularly in OBP leagues, because Mazara’s power might be more impressive in the end.

12:09
Dan: Is there a WAR rate stat? I don’t know how to ask this properly…I want to compare value of players who have more/less PAs or IP…”How much WAR they accumulate over a period of time / same denominator?”

12:09
Eno Sarris: Some rate it out to WAR/600 as in PA. It’s probably a bad idea, though, because you can have below replacement work, you can actually go backwards, it’s not a counting stat that just goes up.

12:10
Der Buergermeister: Oh, are we doing bear-themed music today?

12:10
Almonte: I was wondering what that object was getting bigger….and then it hit me…and gave me a concussion and now I can’t play baseball for 3 weeks

12:10
Nientsniew: Yoooooo eno watch my tv show, it’s 10 mins of ludes

12:10
Eno Sarris: Hey that’s quick.

12:10
v2micca: One of the biggest questions I took away from your article on Jason Heyward was, why in god’s name was anyone pitching Yasiel Puig inside?

12:11
Eno Sarris: That was super weird to me, but it might also be a failure on my part to capture more off the plate inside with my query. When you’re working in pfx that way, you have to draw a line, and maybe pitchers are having success going way inside to Puig? Still, you’d think he’d be bad just off the zone inside and inside in the zone if they were going there so much.

12:11
mike sixel: last week there were no beer questions people…..let’s try to fix this….Eno, how’s Octo going? When would we see more events posted?

12:13
Eno Sarris: Good but also v stressful. So many teams — Conde Nast, Pitchfork, Stink Digital, Good Beer Hunting, BeerGraphs, and ZX Ventures — means lots of different slacks and emails and woof. I know we have a sweet show coming in Durham in March! More on the way.

12:13
Maxamuz: A little Fantasy Baseball Survey – mind posting? https://goo.gl/FqITno

12:13
Manny: Do you expect 2017 Jose Ramirez to have a better, worse or similar year to this past season?

12:14
Eno Sarris: Worse. Slightly lower batting average, fewer steals. And all those doubles aren’t going to turn into homers.

12:14
hooha: I’m having a hard time finding steals outside the first few rounds unless the player is a zero in other cats. What is your general Speed strategy and any favorite mid-draft targets?

12:15
Eno Sarris: I generally avoid the Billy Hamilton types, but I also place mid-table in steals. I try to get guys with power and speed early and then supplement with whatever steals guys are left after the runs in the middle. Steals are the best things to ‘punt’ because you can get runs without steals and they aren’t co-related to other stats that well.

12:15
Davy: Is it me, or are the Nats failing to maximize their window? Six of eight position players are free agents within two years. Shouldn’t they be a bit more aggressive getting a bullpen arm and a real utility player?

12:16
Eno Sarris: I think there are still pieces out there for the bullpen, and guys like Difo can be turned into utility players easily.

12:16
Joe: Has the excitement on argon Healy taken a hit with the A’s signing Plouffe and perhaps looking at adding another 1B?

12:18
Eno Sarris: Yeah, if he plays DH he might take a 10% hit on his true talent and he’s worth much more long term as a third baseman. FWIW, I think this might be a short term problem more than a long term. I still see him outplaying his competition, and they’re all on shorter term deals.

12:18
Matt: Pod’s post this morning told me to take Max Kepler off my sleeper list. What say you, Eno?

12:20
Eno Sarris: I sold Kepler in a one-year league before he went into the tailspin because his statcast numbers weren’t great. But the year to year correlation on statcast wasn’t as amazing as I thought it would be when I ran it. I think he’ll still hit 15 homers and steal 10 bases and have a good OBP, but that’s not worth a poop ton in today’s game.

12:20
Davy: I’ve been reading FG for a few years now. Could you please tell me the origin of the general animus toward Cistulli? And also what percentage of it is playful rather than sincere?

12:21
Eno Sarris: It’s like 99% playful.

12:21
Pat: I’ve been offered a $7 Paxton for my $25 Verlander in an 11-team $260 AL-only league. I have no budgetary issues, so should I say yes or no to this deal?

12:21
Eno Sarris: I’d do it for the money.

12:21
Eno Sarris: * motto

12:21
Lord above: true or false, derek norris reverts back to 2014 2-win player derek norris?

12:21
Eno Sarris: Maybe on the surface, but nobody likes throwing to him as far as I can tell.

12:22
Lord above: True or False, Jacob Degrom is the most underrated pitcher in the league?

12:22
Eno Sarris: These are so hard because who’s doing the rating and how’s he rated. Most people say the Mets starting rotation is one of the top two or three in the game, which would make him one of the best two or three number twos in the game, which would make him a one for most teams, which seems about right.

12:23
Faux Bork: Bon Jour, le Eno!

12:24
Dave: Cardinals management has been nothing but supportive of Kolten Wong this offseason, adamant that he is their everyday 2B (at least vs RHP). What are the chances that sticks, or does Matheny go back to his old ways and bench him at the first sign of a slump and ruin the kid forever?

12:24
Eno Sarris: He’s been way more decent than people think, and maybe going to CF endeared him with his manager, since that’s ‘taking one for the team.’

12:24
Hannah Hochevar: I hear Bundy is throwing a cutter. Normally I’d say it’s a classic “best shape of his life” spring training rumor, but spring training hasn’t even started yet! Does that make it true?

12:25
Eno Sarris: I’d be excited. He showed up on my ‘needs a third pitch’ query that’s pubbing either Friday or Monday. Third time through the order was a problem for him. A cutter would give him something good between the change and the fastball.

12:25
J Cotton 4ever: Eno-I am fully aboard the Cotton train. Give me a reasonable projection? Also while I think Gray is due for a bounce back is there too much risk with taking multiple pitchers from a team not expecting to be over .500?

12:27
Eno Sarris: There’s some wins risk. I just traded Sonny Gray for Cotton and Gsellman actually! It was partially because they were two prospects that will play this year and Gray was a keeper slot, but I like the young guys a decent amount. I’m pushing Cotton’s projection because I like his cutter and the rest of the package is great. Give me a 3.6/1.2 with a 8.5k9 2.5BB9 type package.

12:27
Hannah Hochevar: With Rasmus and Dickerson together, is it fair to call the Rays OF Hard-Core-y?

12:27
Eno Sarris: Hannah.

12:28
ryan: i built a simulation that convinced me it was preferable to avoid pits in your lineup than it was to achieve peaks. what i mean is, given an avg. level of production, you’d prefer to have low variance than have trout followed by phil gosselin. is this wrong? any research on this?

12:28
Eno Sarris: I’ve seen some work that suggested that a volatile pitcher might be worth more than a steady one. Imagine a pitcher that gives up alternating 6/2 and one that gives up 4 every time. I think the 6/2 one wins more games?

12:29
Eno Sarris: But for lineups, yeah I think the no-holes is a big part of why certain teams are decent every year.

12:29
Zonk: Can we talk about the Nats bullpen? I buy Kelley as a closer, but aren’t they lacking quality depth? No, I don’t consider Albers and Nathan to be “quality”….

12:29
Eno Sarris: I consider Treinen to be so quality that he’ll close. I also don’t consider them done.

12:29
Duke: 1000 FG posts! Nice work, have a Barrel Aged TenFidy on me.

12:29
Eno Sarris: Oh damn Eddie Butler was 1000…. I guess that makes sense, in the end.

12:29
Tammy: Do you get paid per article? Per word? Per letter?

12:30
Eno Sarris: I pay people per word on October, sort of. Everywhere else it’s a modified stipend/salary.

12:30
Danny: Is Gary Sanchez the best MLB catcher not named Buster?

12:30
Eno Sarris: If you’re including defense and framing and all that, don’t forget Lucroy.

12:31
ChicagoCardinal: Dynasty league with better than average top-end pitching. Would you recommend taking a bunch of small bets or doubling down for one more top 25 pitcher?

12:31
Eno Sarris: Take the small bets because you’ll get a cheap shot at a top 25 anyway. pitchers so volatile.

12:31
Gus: Let’s start this baseball season already! Question: players that are old for their level are discounted typically as prospects. I know there are correlative studies showing that being young and good usually leads to later success but why are late bloomers hard to scout?

12:32
Eno Sarris: Because so much of the prospecting game is dreaming on a guy — he’ll fill out here, he’ll add here, he’ll add this pitch, he’ll refine this one. If the dude is old, you have to rein that in.

12:32
Erik: Ben and Jeff discussed this on the podcast today, but I’d be curious to hear your thoughts too: if you could hack into another team’s database and acquire just one piece of information, what would you take?

12:33
Eno Sarris: Defensive valuation of the league’s players. I think that’s still the biggest source of different opinions on different teams.

12:33
cj: what styles do I look for craft beer with lowish calories? and does that effect flavor

12:34
Eno Sarris: You won’t get the same full-mouthed flavor, no, you won’t get the chocolate wonder of a BA stout, but I do like session IPAs. You get a ton of aroma which can fake taste, and you get more taste than you would with a lager/pils. Firestone Walker Easy Jack, but also Founders All Day, and your local brewery’s American Pale Ale.

12:34
ChicagoCardinal: Why do all these people play in leagues for jelly beans – gonna be rock hard by the end of the year.

12:34
Gus: If I have a newborn son and I have to give him a name that will lead to future MLB success, should I go with first name Maddux or first name Duda?

12:35
$200 hot dog: Have you seen my dad

12:35
Eno Sarris: …

12:36
Q-Ball: Now that we are in the bargain phase of FA, where do you see the following players fitting: Hammel, Blanton, Logan, Carter, Napoli?

12:37
Eno Sarris: Hammel can always go to the Padres until the deadline, but why the Orioles haven’t signed him is surprising to me. Even as a piggyback with Ubaldo. How about the Royals for Hammel too. Angels too.

12:37
Eno Sarris: Blanton to Nats seems obvious. Maybe it won’t happen but it’s staring us right in the eyes.

12:38
Eno Sarris: Napoli is Seattle or Texas, Carter those teams plus Tampa. Logan might be screwed, MiLB deal.

12:38
dynasty: first dynasty draft soon. is it wrong that i want to fill all of my hitting before taking a pitcher?

12:38
Eno Sarris: I used to take my first pitcher in the ninth, so it’s not too crazy.

12:38
oops: let’s try that again – can keep 2 more years at same price – willson contreras or kenta maeda?

12:38
Eno Sarris: Contreras

12:39
Enlightening Round: Steve Finley worked out at my high school right before he broke into the majors, God did he crush our pitchers

12:39
Eno Sarris: So disheartening haha.

12:39
Eno Sarris: I like Bellinger and Otani. They seem lowest risk and have super high ceilings.

12:40
Mike Foltynewics: If the Astros convert Devenski to a starter, how effective will he be?

12:40
Eno Sarris: His slider was better near the end of the year. I think he could be better than Morton, who has crazy splits, but he’ll be a good injury filli n.

12:40
Max Power: Picking between Rich Hill, Edwin Diaz and Michael Fulmer as my last keeper. All can be kept for $5 and signed for up to 3 years. So torn.

12:40
Eno Sarris: Fulmer for me easy.

12:40
Jake : Mets fan here. How appalled should I be about Bruce starting the season over Conforto, in light of recently published Zips projections ?

12:40
Eno Sarris: Very.

12:42
Adge: 2B is super deep, what do you think on punting the big names and betting on a Devon Travis breakout?

12:43
Eno Sarris: I think I’d cover my bases and have a guy like Forsythe or Wong or Cesar H on the team too. Worst case, those guys can move around, or be dropped if Travis is healthy and ISOs over .160

12:44
Carrie : You look like Brumley from Linklater’s college baseball film “Everybody Wants Some”

12:44
Eno Sarris:

12:45
Eno Sarris: Looks like I have to see this movie.

12:46
BOOM : More successful foreign reintroduction project — Thames or Wily Mo?

12:46
Eno Sarris: Thames, has to be!

12:46
Unc: Hi Eno, what do you expect from Finnegan and Wily Peralta this season. Both finished last year very well. Thank you

12:46
Eno Sarris: Not much from wily Wily. But Finnegan’s changeup changed shape. I’m in.

12:47
Sim: You were big on Conley last year….still big on him for this year?

12:48
Eno Sarris: I think he can improve the command and keep the Ks, so yeah, about the same, but better WHIP.

12:49
Eno Sarris: Growing up, people talked about Marley and Jamaica, but this was my soundtrack when I was out and about on the island. And is that ‘smegma’ in the beginning? Who knows?

12:50
Jake : Are you team Gsellman is good or team Gsellman is not good?

12:50
Eno Sarris: Team Kitchen Sink — okay fourth/fifth guy.

12:50
Marc: What are your thoughts on Berrios and Severino in keeper leagues? (As keepers)

12:50
Eno Sarris: Rather have Berrios, he at least has two pitches. Right now, Severino has the fastball and I don’t dont trust the other two.

12:51
Johnny5Alive: re: puig, so a worthwhile risk at $15 in an NL only, 13 team roto league?

12:51
Eno Sarris: Yeah I think so.

12:51
Top Chef: You buying this helium that Danny Duffy has??

12:51
Eno Sarris: Always had this stuff and now is throwing in the zone so people have to swing at it.

12:52
Tim: Loved the Villar article. Do you think he can hit .300+ and repeat 60 steals?

12:52
Eno Sarris: No, I was a little worried about the stuff from the left side actually. He’s a lefty masher that puts the ball on the ground from the right side. I think he’s a .270 hitter with 40-50 steals. Still very valuable.

12:53
Gus: Are the Rangers and the Astros light on starting pitching?

12:54
Eno Sarris: Yes. The Astros are a little better in terms of back end rotation pieces, and they have Musgrove and Devenski, so they have depth, but the Rangers have better aces and a collection of flotsam I guess.

12:54
LarryA: Whats your Super bowl food line-up?

12:54
Eno Sarris: Man we having people over but I think we’ll just order our favorite Chinese or Mexican.

12:54
Eno Sarris: Why work hard for that sport when kids are coming over.

12:55
joe: Bryan Mitchell, Luis Severino, Luis Cessa, Chad Green, Adam Warren. Which two get the final two rotation spots in the Bronx?

12:55
Eno Sarris: Chad Green and Severino I guess. More sure about Green.

12:55
Raindog: In each of the last two seasons Pineda’s E-F has been >1. He destined to continue to torture me, or is their an ace-like season in there?

12:56
Eno Sarris: Command lives in that gap between E and F. He has bad command. He can be better than he was, but I don’t think he’s an ace.

12:57
Robbie: Have you ever been to d.b.a. in the LES of NYC? I feel like it’s your kind of place

12:57
Eno Sarris: Yup! Drank with Jonah Keri and others there a couple times. Dark and good beer…

12:57
DTH: Addison Russell WAR went from 3.0 in 2015 to 3.9 in 2016. You taking the over or under at 4.2 in 2017?

12:58
Eno Sarris: Over but I’m in the tank for him. I think he’s a smart guy that works hard, and that type is going to always get the most out of themselves.

12:58
Gus: Jean Segura is a conundrum wrapped in a canoli is he not? It is lazy to say he’s just going to be a lot worse and that Arizona was a hot mirage. He fields shortstop well, he was worth 5 WAR last year over 600 AB (and of course half of those occurred away from Arizona), and he steals bases. Is the variance just high, or are we underselling him?

12:59
Eno Sarris: He made a significant adjustment working with Luis Mercedes, the genius that helped Edwin Encarnacion and works with Pujols and Cano and Nunez. So maybe some of the power will actually stick around.

12:59
Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: As someone who does not play fantasy baseball, why aren’t there leagues that use advanced metrics? Like an all WAR league or wRC+ and FIP.

1:00
Eno Sarris: WAR is a no-go because defensive data doesn’t come in daily in that way. Other leagues use points to approximate the other stats you’re talking about.

1:00
Scott of Linconshire: So, rotation help for the Cubs: Brett Anderson, Butler, Rob Zastryzny. I don’t hate that for #6-8 starters. Do they need another misfit or can you just trust a AAA guy to get you 25 starter innings randomly?

1:00
Eno Sarris: Don’t forget Michael Montgomery. Oh you have him fifth. Yeah it’s probably enough.

1:01
Gus: Nick Ahmed, Chris Owings, or Ketel Marte?

1:01
Eno Sarris: Owings.

1:02
Mack: What are your thoughts on stashing Francisco Mejia in a dynasty lg? Think he’ll be up late 2017 and start 2018?

1:02
Eno Sarris: Eh, maybe. he’s 21 and will be on the 40-man, and catchers get hurt all the time, so I guess it’s possible. He also hasn’t seen Double-A though.

1:02
Sir Nerdlington: Francis Martes opinions seem to be all over the board. The one start I saw him in the AFL he looked abysmal – flat fastball that was getting rocked. Astros AGM doesn’t even try to lower expectations and basically says he’s fastball Jesus. What say you for this year and for career?

1:03
Eno Sarris: I wasn’t impressed in the AFL either! Who knows if he was pumping up for a trade or something.

1:04
Speedo: Prospect busts, when not due to injury, have a very predictable set of failures in common. T/F?

1:04
Eno Sarris: I’d say false, but there is a commonality that jumps to my mind: contact problems and tools that never translated to skills. Who knows if I’m right, but I do know that speed correlates worst to outcomes.

1:07
Der Buergermeister: The list of the best bear-themed music is really top-heavy.

1:07
Eno Sarris:

1:07
Eno Sarris: have to look at the album title.

1:07
CamdenWarehouse: How much do you care of the defense behind a pitching when deciding his value?

1:08
Eno Sarris: You gotta give Cubs pitchers credit, and maybe I should think about it more in the future. Angles, Indians, Giants, Royals, Red Sox, Astros, Marlins did well in team D last year…

1:08
Speedo: Better career: James Paxton or Taijuan Walker?

1:08
Eno Sarris: Paxton.

1:08
Jeb: Worth noting that Bundy’s cutter when he was an amateur was his best pitch…I think it received 70s from the prospect community.

1:08
Eno Sarris: Also worth noting that the Orioles are finally letting a pitcher throw a cutter.

1:09
bombsquad rabbi: “Would the homeless man in Sporting Goods please report back to outdoor living. Thank you.” *ksssht*

1:09
Sterling Malory Chris Archer: Why did you name your site October? Why not Octobier?

1:09
Tom: Steve Finley is friends with my brother in law. Man did he have a crush on Steve.

1:10
Beer question: I’m a big fan of maibocks/helles bocks, but Dead Guy Ale is the only American version I’ve been able to find reliably. What others should I keep an eye out for?

1:11
Eno Sarris: Abita Strawgator is around some, Lakefront and Hair of the Dog have ones. Jack’s Abby?

1:11
Dan: Do you like CMart or Maeda for a keeper? Only one dollar value difference in my league.

1:11
Eno Sarris: CMart

1:11
Erik: Why hasn’t Chase Utley been signed anywhere yet? He’s projected for about 1.5 WAR/600, making him a very solid backup at worst, and he provides “veteran leadership” which teams tend to pay for. Where might he end up?

1:12
Eno Sarris: Dodgers? I guess Kiké has more versatility or it would have already happened.

1:12
Buff: I know it’s popular to be down on Junior Guerra. I still think the fastball/splitter combo can be very effective. Thoughts?

1:13
Eno Sarris: No, I like him. Splitters don’t have much in the way of platoon splits, effective against both kinds, and I think his curve is mislabeled and it’s a slider. If he can harden that up a bit, he could even be better than he was, and with his experience pitching, that’s still possible. Velo and a plus change is a good way to start things.

1:13
Jeff: Are you still in on a Puig? I’m wondering if Bellinger ends up replacing by before the end of July.

1:13
Eno Sarris: See above on Puig, but Bellinger can play the OF and is ready, so there is something here. I bet injury sorts it out.

1:14
Merv Throneberry: Gsellman! He’s got the lucky hair..and at least a couple of pitches.

1:14
Eno Sarris: A ton of pitches. Just not sure any of them are plus other than the fastball, which suddenly was 94 last year.

1:14
Biscuit: Hey I read the October piece about the three fundamental “off” flavors in craft beer – excellent work and very illuminating. I was curious to see how this site would differ from other craft beer sites (that just sort of serve as ad space) but it looks like you are really onto something unique.

1:15
Eno Sarris: It’s hard work. I’m hoping to bring audiences together with intersectional stuff on music and beer and the like, and also go deep enough that people can learn there.

1:15
David: How does Ohani compare to Darvish? Are there any other MLB comps for him?

1:15
Eno Sarris: If Darvish was also Cody Bellinger, you’d have your comp.

1:16
Terrible Ted: Enocturnal emssion

1:17
Bryce M: Is there any real risk that David Dahl isn’t an everyday OF for the Rockies?

1:17
Eno Sarris: Nah.

1:17
EbenezerBatflip: Who has a higher batting average in 2017, Xander Bogaerts or Bennintendi?

1:17
Eno Sarris: Ben.

1:18
EbenezerBatflip: I recently got promoted at my job and a girl I was flirty with was also recently promoted. should we continue to flirt now that we’re both managers or should i keep it strictly professional?

1:18
Eno Sarris: You just got lucky. I think it would be less okay if she was not of the same rank.

1:18
CamdenWarehouse: Occasionally you hear about players who stop switch hitting. Have you heard of anyone who stopped and then started again?

1:18
Eno Sarris: Didn’t Victorino?

1:18
The Cincinnati Kid: Can Maxmusz post the results next week? I’m interested

1:18
Terrible Ted: Why is it called a pair of underwear?

1:18
Eno Sarris: Two legs? Pair of pants!

1:19
Eno Sarris: Two holes I guess.

1:19
So: Any comment on your new venture being linked to In-Bev and a failure to properly disclose that? Bunhc of established beer writers seem to have taken issue

1:19
Eno Sarris: It’s in the press releases and the welcome letter, front and center. We’re working on an about page that will be up and will include ZX Ventures. Boilerplate emails that went out to prospective writers included ZX.

1:20
Jeb: Have you been to Peace Pizza in Chicago?

1:20
Eno Sarris: Yes and I really enjoyed that spot. Great Tacos around the corner, one of the best places in Chicago.

1:21
RotoLando: Who is a 3B that you should target now, for peanuts, before he becomes more expensive, like…peanuts at Whole Foods

1:21
Eno Sarris: Maikel Franco

1:21
Adam: Don’t you think the volatile pitcher could reek havoc on a bullpen, costing his team future wins?

1:21
Eno Sarris: Good point!

1:22
CamdenWarehouse: What current players do you think will have the most managerial success?

1:23
Eno Sarris: Jed Lowrie, Sean Doolittle, Javier Lopez, Hank Conger?

1:23
Speedo: Dude, Bellinger replaces Gonzo. He’s a great fielder at 1B.

1:23
Eno Sarris: I know but Cody is ready now and those things that make him a great fielder at first could make him okay in the OF for a year or two.

1:24
Outsourcing Decisions: Deciding between EE and Stanton as a keeper. Same cost. Are there position scarcity factors I should consider? It’s 5 OF and 1B with Corner Infielder league.

1:24
Eno Sarris: Yeah I’d take Stanton still.

1:24
Maxamuz: I’ll post results next week here but they should also be going out on reddit.com/r/fantasybaseball

1:24
Speedo: If your underwear has one hole it is a skirt. Three holes, you’re nasty.

1:24
Speedo: Is exit velocity one of the better predictors of undervalued hitters?

1:25
Eno Sarris: yeah and though I know it’s important for a guy to have good angle plus velo, you have to find the guy before he’s great. So someone like Domingo Santana, who had plus plus exit velo and hit too many GBs but also had a sore shoulder… not too many dots to connect there.

1:25
Sonny: stashing Otani in a deep dynasty, any idea how it would be handled if he signs w a team who will DH him 3 days and SP the 5th? How will that work nuts and bolts wise?

1:26
Eno Sarris: I think there will have to be two different players in each fantasy system, and your league will have to determine if you get both automatically with one pick.

1:26
Eno Sarris: It’ll still cost you a batter.

1:26
Rated Rookie: If he wants it, I bet Joey Votto would be successful as a manager.

1:27
Eno Sarris: I was thinking about putting him on there. He’s smart enough. But he made so much money, and he’s a bit arrogant, as much as I love the dude. I asked him about protection and he said, who’s going to protect me, Babe Ruth? I think managers come from a different class.

1:27
Jared: Goldschmidt is a notoriously patient hitter. It drives me crazy sometimes. How long do you think it would it take the league to adjust if he began the year ambushing those grooved first pitch fastballs?

1:27
Eno Sarris: Not too long.

1:27
BK: Important question: where should I go for beers in San Diego?

1:28
Eno Sarris: Modern Times North Park is right around corner from Toronado’s. Downtown, there’s Monkey Paw, BottleCraft, and Half Door worth checking out.

1:28
Chad: What happens with Michael Conforto this year? Where and how much does he play?

1:28
Eno Sarris: Starts in Triple-A, finishes in MLB due to injury or release or demotion of another OF.

1:28
FatTire: How do things work out with Nate Jones this year? Closer sometime soon?

1:28
Eno Sarris: Yah, once Robertson’s gone.

1:28
joedcamp: How much money comes in from ur book?

1:28
Eno Sarris: LOL

1:31
Moltar: Are you ready to get on the Yoelkis Cespedes hype train? More Yo!

1:31
Eno Sarris: took a double take on that name. WE NEED A PIG ROAST VIDEO

1:32
Johnny5Alive: you like junior guerra but not gsellman?

1:32
Eno Sarris: Gsellman’s best secondary pitch is a cutter. That doesn’t do it for me like a splitter.

1:33
Johnny5Alive: the 23-year old who was pretty frickin good in the majors and helped the mets to the playoffs who has heat and lots of pitches?

1:34
Eno Sarris: We’ll see about all those pitches. I see a cutter and a sinker. If he throws the curve more, maybe that meh change less, he could be great.

1:35
Sandy A: So what’s up with this Grant Dayton guy? He really an upper tier reliever?

1:35
Eno Sarris: Yes! yes I think so.

1:36
Eno Sarris: oh man I gotta go! All my slacks and emails are blowing up

1:36
Eno Sarris: thanks for hanging out!





With a phone full of pictures of pitchers' fingers, strange beers, and his two toddler sons, Eno Sarris can be found at the ballpark or a brewery most days. Read him here, writing about the A's or Giants at The Athletic, or about beer at October. Follow him on Twitter @enosarris if you can handle the sandwiches and inanity.

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White Jar
5 years ago

“Imagine a pitcher that gives up alternating 6/2 and one that gives up 4 every time. I think the 6/2 one wins more games?”

Can you give us a little more on why you think this is?

I’m trying to figure out how to agree with you, but just can’t. I’ve been watching baseball my entire life so I like to believe I have a good instinct for things like this.

White Jar
5 years ago
Reply to  Eno Sarris

That helps a little. I get what you are saying now.

SalThePal
5 years ago
Reply to  Eno Sarris

I was thinking about this recently too, but more at the team scale. Is it better to have 3 good starters with 3 ERA and 2 bad ones with 5.5 ERA or 5 decent starters with 4 ERA? Or use FIP if you feel it’s better for this context. I think this is how Texas beat their expected record recently. Though I expect there is another angle to consider which is average runs scored by your team.

That is just one area of optimizing production to create more wins that WAR is not able to account for effectively. Currently, we just sum the total projected WAR of a team to project their record. However, we’re not accounting for their WAR distribution and optimization. Things like starting rotation WAR distribution, bullpen, and line up wRC+ distribution.

thetoddfather
5 years ago
Reply to  SalThePal

I think you can still follow Eno’s logic and push it to the extreme. We can even think of an absurd scenario…if 1 starter has an ERA of 0 and the other 4 each have an ERA of 10, we would expect them to win almost all of the ace’s starts but nothing else. Instead, if all 5 starters have an ERA of 8, we would expect them to lose almost all of their games.

Seems like the additional variance helps here too.

The war distribution among pitchers is an interesting thought…my guess is that, at the (feasible) extremes, it has an effect similar to lineup optimization: not very significant, but not totally absent.